What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.
Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.
“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”
That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.
“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.
Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.
“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”
Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.
“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”
While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.
“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”
That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.
“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”
Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.
“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”
The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.
“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”
But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.
“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”
