Discussions concerning the U.S. cattle and beef industry over the past two years have centered on record-high prices driven by the lowest U.S. cattle numbers in 75 years and supported by record beef demand. For ranchers, this has meant record-high returns, but not without the ever-present challenge of assessing and managing risk in their business. Risk comes in many forms including markets, weather, politics and government policy just to name a few.
In late 2025, New World screwworm was once again added to the list of risks facing U.S. ranchers as NWS was found in northern Mexico and by January was approaching the U.S. border. On June 3, 2026, the news of finding NWS in South Texas hit the headlines, and this is a top news story for not only the U.S. beef industry, but also for American beef consumers.
I have written and stated publicly many times since last fall that it is critical to keep screwworm out of the U.S. The impact on ranchers and the U.S. beef industry could be devastating with the potential of making this year’s 75-year low inventory only the beginning. This is not an article to discuss screwworm but rather to present screwworm as a more critical risk factor this year. I doubt if there is anyone raising cattle that does not already believe that. In fact, much, if not most, of what I have mentioned is not news to the ranchers.
The Legislative Front: Oregon’s PEACE Act (IP 28)
Regarding risk management, there is another key issue at play in Oregon, which could easily move to other states and that concerns People for the Elimination of Animal Cruelty. Their agenda to eliminate livestock production has been around for several years, but it once again picked up steam in Oregon with the introduction of Initiative Petition 28 (the PEACE ACT) in Oregon with the objective of removing long-held animal husbandry practices such as dehorning, tail docking and castration and would criminalize routine reproductive management practices such as artificial insemination unless performed by a licensed veterinarian.
In addition to the elimination of animal husbandry practices, 28 would also eliminate hunting and fishing in the state of Oregon, which has obviously caught the eye of many other residents and non-residents who don’t raise cattle. I don’t have to tell anyone the importance of hunting and fishing to not only Oregon, but the entire U.S. Karen Bohnert described IP 28 in a June 2 Drovers article.
While two previous attempts by this group to attack livestock production in Oregon failed, IP 28 captured the 117,173 signatures required to get the initiative on the November ballot. Will it pass? I am not sure if I can answer that, but as a resident of eastern Oregon and close to Idaho, Oregon’s largest share of population is on the west side of the Cascade Range.
How many California residents thought Prop 12 (space requirement) would pass in 2018? How many Oregon residents thought IP 28 in Oregon would be headed for the ballot in November? Is this going to be a replay of Prop 12? Yes, record-high prices are generating record returns for cow-calf producers, but the risks to those returns persist.
