Santa Delivers $2 Fed Cattle Rally

Negotiated cash fed cattle traded $2 higher in the South during the holiday-shortened week. Futures markets appear supportive and asking prices will be higher in the days before New Year’s.

Tyson Narjes
Tyson Narjes
(Katelyn Dynneson Larson)

Negotiated cash fed cattle traded at $110 in Kansas and Texas this week, $2 higher than the previous week. Cattle traded on a dressed basis in the North at $172 per cwt., $4 higher than last week. Showlists for next week are priced at $111 to 112.

Choice boxed beef closed Thursday at $208.75 per cwt., up $0.12 from last Friday. Select boxed beef traded Thursday at $198.69 per cwt., up $4.72 from last week.

February live cattle futures closed Thursday up $0.25 at $114.975 and scored a technically bullish weekly high close. For the week, February live cattle gained $0.125. January feeder cattle futures rose $0.65 Thursday to close at $140.925, also a bullish weekly high close and for the week rose $0.475.

Cattle owners remain tempted to carry cattle forward given February live cattle futures’ big premium to spot cash. USDA Cold Storage data released this week showed continued rebuilding of beef stocks. In fact, following the spring’s sharp Covid-19-related drawdown, total beef stocks have climbed all the way back to a 24-month high, in sharp contrast to the tightening pork and poultry stocks.

Continuing widespread drought is a significant concern for cattlemen as the new year approaches. The National Drought monitor reports 67% of the Continental U.S. experiencing some drought, which compares with just 26% during the same week last year.

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With Select supplies shrinking and consumer demand locked on higher-quality beef, the traditional Choice-Select spread no longer tells the real market story.
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