USDA caught up on cattle on feed (COF) data following the shutdown when it released the COF report on Friday, Nov. 21.
“Amid the drumbeat of bad news in the cattle market over the last month, including on-again, off-again tariffs, jawboning for lower beef prices and Tyson’s announcement it will close its beef packing plant in Lexington, Neb., in January, USDA released a cattle on feed report,” says David Anderson, Texas A&M Extension economist in a recent Southern Ag Today e-newsletter.
Anderson summarizes the report did not contain many surprises. Placements and marketings were down 10% and 8%, compared to October 2024. The combination left the number of cattle on feed down 1.6% compared to Nov. 1.
“The most interesting, and important, number in the report was the number of heifers on feed,” he says.
Heifers on feed is normally reported in the October report, but that was delayed due to the shutdown. There were 4.355 million heifers on feed on Oct. 1. That was 245,000 fewer than Oct. 1, 2024, and the fewest heifers on feed for an October since 2018.
“It also represented the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines in the number of heifers on feed,” Anderson summarizes. “That would seem to be positive news if looking for evidence of herd expansion.”
Josh Maples, University of Mississippi associate professor of agricultural economics, agrees with Anderson regarding the most interesting number in the report was the percentage of heifers on feed and although numbers are down there is more to the story.
Maples wrote in a recent Cattle Market Notes Weekly e-newsletter: “Much of this decline is likely driven by the lack of spayed heifer imports from Mexico. There were 381,283 spayed heifers imported during the first nine months of 2024 compared to only 79,507 this year. Overall, the heifer on feed numbers do not yet reflect strong signs of much heifer retention in the U.S.”
Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, discussed the COF report with Chip Flory during “AgriTalk” on Monday.
Close says: “Heifers as a percent on feed at 38.1% essentially is unchanged from July. It’s down a percent and a half from a year ago.
“The bottom line is we are still at levels that clearly shows we were in a liquidation phase. The neutral zone is 36% to 37% of heifers on feed, and we’re at 38%,” he says. “We’re still going to see a huge drop in heifers on feed when we finally get to expansion in earnest, so we’re kicking the can down the road.”
Texas Slips to No. 2
The report included a rare event with Texas slipping to No. 2, reporting 10,000 fewer cattle on feed than Nebraska, 2.63 million head versus 2.64 million head. The last time Nebraska had more cattle in feedyards than Texas was May 2018. The lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports is the most important factor in this ranking reversal.
Maples adds this is only the 10th month in at least the past 33 years Texas hasn’t topped the list.
“There were a couple of other interesting numbers to think about,” Anderson says. “More steers were reported on feed than a year ago. At first glance, we might think that seems surprising given the decline in cow numbers, but days on feed is boosting total cattle on feed inventories, given overall declines in cattle numbers.”
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