The April USDA Cattle on Feed report confirms that the U.S. fed cattle supply remains historically tight, with March placements and marketings reaching their second-lowest levels since 1996. While the latest report landed almost exactly where analysts expected, Patrick Linnell of CattleFax says the underlying message hasn’t changed: fed cattle supplies are tight and likely to stay that way, as lower marketings, fewer Mexican feeder imports, drought timing and more heifers kept for breeding limit cattle available to place.
Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, was a guest on AgriTalk Friday afternoon with Michelle Rook.
Here are the key takeaways from the report:
- On feed: 99.5% — Feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1. The inventory included 7.26 million steers and steer calves, down slightly from the previous year. This group accounted for 63% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, down 1% from 2025.
- Placements: 96.7% — Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head. Net placements were 1.66 million head. Placements were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996.
- Marketings: 94.5% — March marketings totaled 1.63 million head. Marketings were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996.
One point Linnell emphasizes is the on-feed number didn’t drop as sharply year over year as some might assume in a tight-supply environment. He explains this apparent disconnect is largely a function of cattle staying on feed longer and yards remaining relatively full.
Despite that technical nuance in the on-feed totals, Linnell stresses the takeaway for producers and the trade is straightforward: “So overall, the message is simply that supplies remain tight and fed cattle numbers should remain pretty tight here for the foreseeable future.”
“Placements were off close to 7% to 8% from year ago, which was what we and other groups had predominantly expected with the marketings below year ago levels,” Linnell says.
Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky livestock agriculture economist, summarizes the report includes some sizeable decreases from last year on placements and marketings, but very much in line with pre-report estimates.
“The decrease in heifers on feed is worth noting,” Burdine points out. “While 37.3% is still relatively high and just above the 20-year average, the numbers are slowly trending downward. It’s actually the smallest heifer percentage since 2018, but that is a little bit deceiving because we have been below 38% several times since then. I think this year is setting up such that beef cow slaughter will be the inventory driver. It is down 18% year-to-date, from a very low number last year.”
Burdine, in the recent “Cattle Market Notes Weekly” article, explains, “The bigger story of 2026 may be less about heifer retention and more about beef cow slaughter. After culling the herd very hard from 2021 to 2023, beef cow slaughter was sharply lower in 2024 and 2025.”
Through the first 14 weeks of 2026, beef cow slaughter has been running almost 18% lower than the same time last year.
“If that trend held for the balance of the year, the 2026 beef cow culling rate would be about 7%, when the culling rate has averaged over 9.8% the last 20 years,” Burdine summarizes. “Weather conditions are likely to impact both heifer retention and cow culling as we move through current year, but the current pace of cow slaughter may be the largest inventory driver as we move towards 2027.”
Considering regional and state-level placements, Linnell highlights Texas as the focal point of the decline. He ties much of that weakness directly to the lack of Mexican feeder cattle coming across the border.
“As you look at the regional on-feed numbers, Texas still composes the bulk of the decline compared to either year ago or a five year average, off 10,000 from year ago or down 268,000 head from a five year average,” he explains. “I think that really just does reflect that continued lack of the Mexican feeder cattle supply.”
At the same time, the story is not limited to Texas. Linnell notes that most regions and states are showing declines relative to historical levels, which fits the broader cattle cycle.
“You’re noting those declines from a five year average in pretty much all regions and states as well, which is really no surprise when you think about where we’re at from a cycle standpoint,” he adds.
He adds the softer marketing number was no surprise either, given how tight supplies have been and how slaughter has lagged.
“There’s no surprise with combination of just tight, tight supplies and the fact that, you know, we’ve had slaughter running well below year ago. The decline in marketing’s was no surprise whatsoever, either,” he says.
Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, agrees with Linnell and Burdine summarizing there is nothing really earth-shaking in the report.
“Placements and marketings were both down about as expected,” he says. “On-feed total down 0.5% year over year, continuing the slow decline. Monthly cattle on feed have been down 17 consecutive months. Feedlot throughput (turnover rate) has slowed more than cattle on-feed levels indicate with placements in the past year year down 8% and marketings down 6.7%.”
Peel stresses heifers on feed, April 1 was 37.3%, down slightly from one year ago and about at the long-term average. The level is consistent with inventory and slaughter data, indicating very low and slow levels of heifer retention.
Placements Outlook: Drought, Border and Heifer Retention
Looking ahead, Linnell expects placements to continue trending below year-ago levels, even as drought and timing issues could pull some cattle off grass earlier.
“We’ll continue to see placements as a pattern that are running below year ago levels,” he says.
He acknowledges that drought could force some early movement.
“Yes, you probably do see some drought movement, some cattle coming early, but I think we’ve already seen that on a year to date basis, as well as you think about that February number that was above year ago for placements,” he explains.
Linnell also reminds AgriTalk listeners that last year’s partial border reopening to Mexican feeder cattle during March through May affects how current placements stack up in year-over-year comparisons.
Another structural factor tightening the pipeline is increased heifer retention. More heifers are being held back for breeding, which reduces the pool of animals available to send to feedyards.
“Even despite these dry conditions, it still appears to us that there is an increase in heifer retention,” he summarizes. “And so with that going on, that’s more animals that you’re taking to supply to place, right?”
Bottom Line: Tight Supplies For the Foreseeable Future
Across his comments, Linnell consistently came back to one central theme: the Cattle on Feed report confirms a tight-supply environment that won’t resolve quickly. Even if the headline on-feed number doesn’t fall as much as some might expect, the underlying drivers — lower placements, constrained feeder flows from Mexico, increased heifer retention and extended days on feed — all point in the same direction.
In his view, that means fed cattle numbers will remain limited going forward, and the industry should plan around a tighter supply backdrop.
“Overall, the message is simply that supplies remain tight and fed cattle numbers should remain pretty tight here for the foreseeable future,” he summarizes.
