USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report was bullish. The Cattle Inventory Report showed the lowest cattle herd in history.
U.S. Cattle on Feed at 98%
The number of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on July 1, 2025. That was 2% below last year and below pre-trade estimates of 99.2%. It was also the lowest total since 1996.
The inventory included 6.88 million steers and steer calves, up 1% from 2024. This group accounted for 62% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.24 million head, down 5.4% from 2024.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University extension livestock marketing specialist, says, “When you look at heifers as a percentage of the cattle on feed inventory it was about 38 % which is actually a tick back up slightly from the April 1 number. So, it says that you know it’s a very slow process we’re still above the long-term average here in terms of the percentage of heifers on feed and so if we are if we are beginning to hold back heifers it’s at a very very slow pace at this point.”
Placements in Feedlots at 92%
Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.44 million head, 8% below 2024. However, that was 6% below estimates and the lowest in 16 years.
Peel says both the placements and on-feed totals were bullish.
“The placements came in substantially less than expected and as a result of that, it did change the on-feed number to about a .5% or 1% less than expected. Marketing’s were close to expectations. So, you know, all in all, this is certainly a leaning bullish.And it’s consistent with the idea that we’ve generally been pulling placements down for actually quite a few months now,” he says.
During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 320,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 235,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 315,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 326,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 165,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 80,000 head.
State by state placements showed Texas at 82%, Oklahoma at 73%, Nebraska at 87%, while Iowa was at 121% and Kansas was at 114%.
This is a clear reflection of the Southern border closure to Mexican feeder cattle imports tied to New World Screwworm.
Marketings at 96%
Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 1.71 million head, 4% below 2024, but in line with expectations. Marketings were the lowest for June since the series began in 1996.
July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1% from 2023
All cattle and calves on July 1, 2025, totaled 94.2 million head, 1% below the 95.4 million head on July 1, 2023. This is also the lowest herd in history.
All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.1 million head, 1% below the 38.4 million head on July 1, 2023.
Beef cows, at 28.7 million head, down 1% from two years ago.
All heifers 500 lb. and over on July 1, 2025 totaled 14.6 million head, 2% below the 14.9 million head on July 1, 2023.
Beef replacement heifers, at 3.7 million head, are down 3%.
The trade was expecting most of these categories to come in at 98%, so on the surface is looks slightly bearish showing a slight build in the herd size.
However, Peel says these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt because they are still below 100% and are compared to two years ago.
“It’s difficult to interpret because we’re comparing to two years ago and we know that we liquidated certainly from 23 to 24. And so, you have to be a little bit cautious in interpreting these numbers,” he says.
Peel says the heifer numbers don’t suggest much heifer expansion, which is consistent with the quarterly heifer on feed numbers.
“So, it’s not showing any real heifer retention,” he explains.
Yet, one number that was a bit of a surprise to him was the July 1 beef cow estimate.
“Take the July 1 beef cow estimate as a percentage of the January 1 estimate, and it’s actually up about 2 .8%, which historically that’s consistent with the time period where we are seeing some herd rebuilding or some herd expansion,” he explains.
Steers 500 lb. and over totaled 13.8 million head, down 1%. Bulls 500 lb. and over was unchanged. Calves under 500 lb. totaled 25.8 million head, down 2%. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market fell 1% from 2023.
Calf Crop Down 1%
The 2025 calf crop is expected to be 33.1 million head, down 1% from last year. Calves born during the first half of 2025 are estimated at 24.3 million head, down 1% from the first half of 2024. An additional 8.8 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2025.
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