Paul Dykstra

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Current supply metrics have boosted the value of Select carcasses as a reflection of less lean trim with lower cull cow volume. Fed cattle sector still finds highest return as carcass quality increases.
A look beyond last week’s headline news surrounding the sell-off in both Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures.
Quality grades continue to run high as record-heavy seasonal carcass weights meter out marbling-rich product in fed steer and heifer plants.
Reports from several feeders indicate that the 2023 spring-born calves, now being harvested, spent more days in the feedyard this year than in more typical recent years.
Cattle feeders report that 2023 spring-born calves, now being harvested, spent more days in the feedyard this year than in more typical recent years.
It’s a good sign for the supply chain as analyst estimates of packer margins suggest profits in the $20 per head range in recent days.
Aside from the added carcass tonnage, the leap in carcass weights - driven by extra days on feed - has generated a noted shift in carcass marbling and quality grade achievement.
This week’s holiday-shortened harvest, coupled with recent advances in boxed beef prices and stronger Live Cattle futures should prove supportive to fed cattle prices.
Carcass marbling has benefitted from extra days on feed and heavier carcass weights resulting from current market conditions. Thus, the beef from fed cattle is historically quality-rich for this time of the year.
Beef carcass cutout values have continued a precipitous decline since mid-March, tracking a 5% lower trend in that period. That is firmly against the trend charted in the previous three-year average.