This week’s holiday-shortened harvest, coupled with recent advances in boxed beef prices and stronger Live Cattle futures should prove supportive to fed cattle prices.
Carcass marbling has benefitted from extra days on feed and heavier carcass weights resulting from current market conditions. Thus, the beef from fed cattle is historically quality-rich for this time of the year.
Beef carcass cutout values have continued a precipitous decline since mid-March, tracking a 5% lower trend in that period. That is firmly against the trend charted in the previous three-year average.
Over the past five weeks the combined Prime and Choice carcasses harvested totaled 84.7%, a six percentage point increase over the September low of 78.7%.
The latest data on steer weights shows 23 pounds heavier than a year ago at 922-pounds, record-high for the first two weeks in March. That’s a sharply higher trend line in a time when weights historically trend lighter.
Certified Angus Beef has captured detailed carcass measurements on several million Angus-type carcasses over the past 17 years to learn about brand-eligible, Angus-influenced carcasses across the industry.
Comparing cutout values across USDA quality grades and Certified Angus Beef® brand carcasses provides the quality pricing component of fed cattle values for grid and many formula sales.
Extreme January weather conditions impacting a large portion of cattle feeding regions have been widely impactful to cattle feeders and the beef supply chain.
The onset of severe cold temperatures and snow in a broad spectrum of cattle feeding regions will pull fed cattle production down. Beyond the reduced weekly slaughter head counts, carcass weights are set to plunge.
The beef market is set to rapidly adjust to changes in consumer buying habits. This removes demand pressure from ribs and tenderloins, realigning the contribution of those cuts to a smaller percentage of carcass value.
