The coronavirus meltdown is the second black swan event for cattlemen in six months, but many fear this is worse than the Tyson packing plant fire.

Tyson Foods announced a one-time assistance payments to cattle feeders “in an effort to demonstrate our commitment and support of our valued cattle suppliers.”

Significantly reduced slaughter levels brought the full weight of the COVID-19 crisis to bear on cattle markets this week as cash cattle prices declined and boxed beef prices spiked to record highs.

While any tally of cattle waiting on shackle space is – at best – an estimate, an analysis of Cattle on Feed and slaughter data suggests estimates of 1 million cattle backlogged may be overstated by as much as 50%.

CoBank estimates meat supplies at grocery stores could shrink nearly 30% by Memorial Day, leading to prices rising by as much as 20%. Some cattle producers say they are barely hanging on due to futures prices.  

Two of America’s largest beef packing companies have announced plant closings due to COVID-19. One in effect until April 20 and one until April 24. The plants have a combined harvest capacity of 6,500 cattle per day.