In the last two weeks the average weekly fed cattle harvest total has been 480,000 head, a total reduction of 30,000 head (-3%) over the two-week span compared to a year ago.
CattleFax released its annual price projections at CattleCon and expects cattle prices to stay strong for a while.
USDA’s latest Cattle Inventory report showed U.S. beef cattle numbers fell to the lowest level in 64 years to start the year. Tight supplies and strong demand could push cattle prices to even higher highs in 2025, but uncertainty is infusing more risk and volatility into the markets.
With the prospects for tight cattle numbers over the next 2 to 3 years, the importance of consumer demand will be critical.
Kevin Good, Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis with CattleFax, says the herd is still shrinking and so are slaughter levels and that will mean more record prices in 2025.
USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. total cattle inventory shrunk another 1% over the past year, with the number of beef cows also down 1%.
Last year’s USDA Cattle Inventory Report showed the smallest cattle herd since 1951. With strong heifer prices and no strong signs of rebuilding underway, the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows supplies may come in even lower than last year.
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures prices have been forced higher as Live Cattle contracts had been lagging negotiated values until recent days.
With no post-holiday wavering, all cattle and beef markets moved higher in the first half of January – setting new record price levels to start the new year.
Cash cattle averaged $204.12 per cwt., up from last week, while lean carcass hog prices came in at $81.79 per cwt.
Now in mid-January, the cattle markets are showing exceptional optimism. Packers were actively bidding to capture spot market needs.
Tight cattle supplies will remain the primary driver in the new year and weather will have a significant impact on feed and forage availability, and cattle marketing patterns.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek in Sioux Center, Iowa, says cash fed cattle trade hit record highs last week and could be steady to even a bit higher again this week. Historically tight supplies continue to support the rally.
Cow-calf returns vary significantly across producers due to widely variable costs of production, but strong market signals for cow-calf producers to expand the beef cow herd.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures recovered nicely from Friday’s selloff with some contracts making new highs for the move, pricing in record cash cattle trade. Grain markets are seeing fund buying with soybeans and meal leading on dry weather forecasts for Argentina.
Looking back, 2024 was mostly a continuation of the story that has been developing since 2022.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn ended lower on a combination of profit taking and farmer selling after running into chart resistance.
Cattle harvest was down last week, but carcass weights remain record breaking. Q4 tends to be the period most prone to follow historical seasonal patterns for carcass cutout prices.
As agriculture faces multiple challenges, USDA’s latest net farm income forecast is masking the reality for farmers. While livestock margins have improved for 2024, high input costs and below breakeven prices for row crops means margins could be the worst in nearly 20 years.
Harvested fed steer and heifer head counts outpaced the same weeks in 2023, with 501K and 492K in the past two weeks.
How Low Will Grain Prices Go?
Futures markets have always been a source of consternation. The reason for angst generally falls on the speculators, but that blame is often misplaced.
Soybeans Make New Lows....Again and Pull down Corn and Wheat
Grains Trade Weather and China Economic News
Hogs Bounce Off Contract Lows
“Reputation cattle” is a term you’ll hear often when cattle prices are discussed. What is “reputation” in the cattle market? How do you build it? And what is it worth?
The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the U.S., shows the lack of exports, as well as the current crop prices, are eroding outlooks on the crops side. While strong beef demand and cheaper feed prices are creating more optimism in cattle.
New proposed USDA rule will better protect farmers, ranchers, and other covered market participants by making clearer how prohibitions on unfair practices will be enforced under the Packers and Stockyards Act.
Ag markets are mostly lower Monday except cattle and nearby soybeans. The record cash cattle trade is trumping the bearish Cattle on Feed Report, says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek.
USDA offers educational events for cattle producers and feeders who want a better understanding of factors contributing to the market value of cattle, and how these factors can inform marketing and production decisions.