As we leave 2024 behind and start the New Year, the U.S. needs to step up its efforts to stop the spread of HPAI H5N1 — for all our sakes.
Based on the official numbers of virus cases reported in the dairy industry and beyond, in poultry and wildlife, it doesn’t appear we are moving fast enough individually or collectively to rein in this virus.
I’m trying to tread lightly on this topic, but candidly, I’m afraid.
The Impact On People
I’m very concerned about what this virus has the potential to do to human beings — our dairy farmers, farm workers, veterinarians — and, yes, the rest of us.
While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says the “current risk to individual and population health remains low in the U.S.,” that statement is less reassuring to me as time marches on and the virus spreads.
As of Dec. 30, 2024, the CDC has confirmed “only” 66 cases of the virus in people. See H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation.
That number is likely very low, based on what veterinarians have told me since March 25, 2024, when the virus was first confirmed in dairy cattle.
More importantly, consider what scientists are saying.
The American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) reported on Dec. 30 that “the virus strain found in dairy cows in the U.S. may only need one mutation for it to be able to spread among humans, according to a study published in the journal Science in early December.”
Dr. Les Sims, a veterinary consultant who has worked internationally for over 30 years on the prevention and control of major infectious diseases of food-producing animals, warns in the article: “The longer this virus circulates unchecked, the higher the likelihood it will acquire the mutations needed to cause a pandemic. We need to act urgently to prevent this scenario.”
The AVMA’s complete article is available here:
Novel bird flu strain continues to threaten animal, public health
Virologists Share Their Perspectives
Another insightful article is The state of H5N1 infections and research as 2025 approaches, posted on Dec. 24 by Chemical & Engineering News. It notes:
“As more cows get infected with H5N1 bird flu, and more people get exposed to infected animals, there’s increased opportunity for the virus to evolve into a version that’s more capable of spreading between people,” says Ed Hutchinson, a virologist at the University of Glasgow. “The process could result in the virus accumulating mutations that allow for better replication and transmission, including between people.”
“Virologists are also concerned about a situation where a person simultaneously gets infected with H5N1 and human influenza virus H3N2 or H1N1, each of which is currently circulating as flu activity gains pace. But it’s hard to predict whether genetic reassortment between those viruses would create a version of H5N1 that’s more adept at spreading in humans,” says Richard Webby, an influenza virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, in the Chemical & Engineering News article.
Consider what one physician told NBC News Science Reporter Evan Bush on Dec. 23:
“The traffic light is changing from green to amber,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, who studies infectious diseases. “So many signs are going in the wrong direction.”
See Bird flu warning signs are going in the wrong direction
Impacts In Dairy, Poultry, Wildlife
The virus continues to spread in the dairy industry, and it’s alarming the toll it’s already taken in domestic poultry and wildlife. In summary:
In Dairy: On March 25, 2024, the USDA, CDC and FDA made their official confirmation of the virus in dairy herds in two states, Texas and Kansas. A short nine months later, on Dec. 30, 2024, we officially had 913 herds affected in 16 states, according to the CDC. See Domestic Summary.
In Poultry: the USDA says HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry have been detected in all 50 states —1,324 commercial flocks and 729 backyard flocks—resulting in the depopulation of more than 125 million turkeys and chickens. See the Full Report.
In Wildlife: The virus has affected more than 200 wildlife species across the U.S. See Detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Mammals.
Do What You Can
I don’t want to experience “another Covid” or a virus that could be even worse. I’m sure no one else does, either.
We must act individually and collectively to stem the spread of HPAI H5N1.
Please don’t “kick the can” on down the road and expect someone else to do your part. Take the steps you can to help, however small they might be.
That’s what I’m trying to do, too.
HPAI H5N1 is Content Focus of Special Issue
A Message to the Ag Industry about H5N1
California Issues State of Emergency Warning in Response to More Bird Flu Found on Dairies
New Zealand Reports First Case of HPAI
