The 2024 forecast for red meat and poultry production was raised from last month with higher beef, broiler and turkey production forecasts, partially offset by lower pork production. According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Nov. 8, beef production went up as higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast was lowered on a slower pace of slaughter in the fourth quarter and slightly lighter dressed weights. Meanwhile, broiler and turkey production forecasts were raised due on production data reported through the end of the third quarter.
Imports and Exports
Recent trade data and stronger than expected imports from Oceania and South America during the fourth quarter spurred an increase in the beef import forecast, the report says. Strong demand for processing beef is also a reason for raised 2025 beef import expectations. For 2025, the forecast is raised based on relatively higher expected global demand.
Although the pork export forecast for 2024 is raised slightly based on reported data through September, WASDE reports a lowered 2025 forecast based on forecast reductions and weaker demand expectations in several key markets during the first half of the year.
Price Predictions
Analysts forecast raised cattle prices for the fourth quarter of 2024 based on the continued strength in beef demand and recent prices. They expect this increase to carry into 2025.
As well, the 2024 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices and strong pork demand, the report says. Tighter pork supplies support higher prices in the first half of 2025, analysts note.
WASDE also raised the 2024 broiler price forecast based on recent prices.
“Higher prices are expected to carry into the first quarter of 2025, supported by higher cattle and hog prices,” analysts note in the report.
