It’s typical for cow-calf producers to focus most of their marketing efforts on calves. Accordingly, little marketing effort is put into cull cows and bulls. While pregnancy and culling rates vary between operations; over time, the sale of cull breeding stock accounts for roughly 20 percent of gross revenue in a cow-calf production system. The ebb and flow of the cull cow market has proven to be extremely consistent (and predictable) over time, as shown in the graph below.
The seasonal pattern has been consistent for decades. The 20-year average break from the highs of summer to the low in November is 15 percent. Cull prices typically move higher in the early spring before peaking in the summer when strong seasonal grilling activity drives the demand for ground beef. This demand starts to soften in September and is followed by a large supply of spring calving cull cows hitting the market (after weaning and fall pregnancy checks), in October and November resulting in the fall lows. While many spring calving operations simply choose to dispose of culls as quickly and easily as possible, there is considerable potential to increase the salvage value of culls by 25 – 45 percent with some additional effort devoted to marketing and management. Additional value can be gained through added weight, improving the quality classification, and taking advantage of the seasonal price patterns.
The summer of 2024 has seen cull cow values reach record high prices. On the supply side, a decline in beef cow slaughter numbers reflects the current cowherd stabilization. Year-to-date, commercial beef cow slaughter is down 16 percent from 2023. From a demand standpoint, consumer preference for ground beef products has been robust even at current prices.
For fall calving herds, the seasonal pattern suggests the most profitable option is to market cull cows at the time of weaning/culling in the spring. There is little reason to expect anything different next year as the decreasing cowherd, and small supply of designated replacement heifers this past January, supports strong slaughter cow demand in 2025.
For spring calving operations, this fall represents an opportunity to increase the value of cull cows from the fall lows by retaining ownership into the new year. Improved cull cow marketing offers some of the most reliable return for producers in the uncertain world of cow-calf production. That being said, the cost, moisture conditions and risk of holding onto culls into 2025 must be weighed against the potential of capturing additional value.
