The USDA’s September Cattle on Feed report highlighted tightening feeder cattle supplies across the country. Total cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000+ head stood at 11.163 million head on September 1, 2026, slightly higher (+1%) than the 11.080 million head reported a year earlier.
The headline story from this month’s report is the notable contraction in feedlot entries: August placements came in at 1.617 million head, a sharp 9% decline compared to August 2025, marking the lowest August placement figure since the data series began 30 years ago in 1996. Fed cattle marketings also slowed, declining 3% year-over-year to 1.519 million head, likewise setting a record low for the month of August.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, says, “It’s the second month in a row we’ve had very low placements. The reality of the numbers — the fact that we just don’t have the feeder supplies — is catching up with feedlots. We probably maxed out the days-on-feed trick that we can play here. Going forward, the lower numbers are going to catch up with us, and we’ll see these feedlot inventories probably continue to decline in the next few months.”
Key Metrics: September Cattle on Feed Breakdown
- On-Feed Inventory: 11.16 million head — Up 1% from Sept. 1, 2025.
- Placements: 1.62 million head — Down 9% from August 2025 (Lowest August placement total since data collection began in 1996).
- Marketings: 1.52 million head — Down 3% from August 2025 (Lowest August marketings since 1996).
- Other Disappearance: 52,000 head — Up 2% from August 2025.
Analyst Perspective: Strong Fundamentals Back the Complex
Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, agrees the data leans fundamentally supportive for the cattle complex.
“It looks bullish to me, clearly driven by that placement number,” Close says. “We still know that we have an all-time record low supply of domestic cattle, and we’re not going to import enough to offset that. Consumer demand is still incredibly good — with both ends of the market supportive, our real challenge is just going to take all the realignment between the weight classes.”
Close and Peel were guest on AgriTalk with Michelle Rook on Friday afternoon following USDA releasing its Sept. 1 Cattle on Feed report.
Border Dynamics: Santa Teresa Reopening Won’t Cause an Immediate Supply Surge
With the scheduled Sept. 24 reopening of the Santa Teresa, N.M., port of entry — historically accounting for nearly half of Mexican cattle imports into the U.S. — both analysts caution against expectations of an immediate supply surge in feedlots.
“I don’t think the reopening of Mexico will, in the short term, have anything anywhere near the impact that’s feared, just because of the average days on feed at 200-plus days,” Close explains. “We’re going to be well into the year before we ever see any of those cattle finished.”
Peel echoes that volume will take time to build. “It’s going to start slow and take a while to get up to speed,” Peel adds. “We might get 100,000 to 125,000 head of cattle across by the end of the year, and with the weight strung out, it’s going to be pretty hard to detect a noticeable impact, except in the specific regions where those cattle go.”
August Placements by Weight Group
Feeder cattle entering feedlots during August were distributed across the following weight categories:
- Under 600 lb.: 320,000 head (19.8% of total)
- 600–699 lb.: 240,000 head (14.8% of total)
- 700–799 lb.: 355,000 head (22.0% of total)
- 800–899 lb.: 387,000 head (23.9% of total)
- 900–999 lb.: 230,000 head (14.2% of total)
- 1,000+ lb.: 85,000 head (5.3% of total)
Total cattle placed at 800 lb. and heavier accounted for 702,000 head, or more than 43% of all August placements.
State-by-State Feedlot Performance
- Texas: Inventory at 2.500M head (unchanged vs. 2025); August placements at 320,000 head (-6%).
- Nebraska: Inventory at 2.470M head (+2%); August placements at 410,000 head (-14%).
- Kansas: Inventory at 2.320M head (-1%); August placements at 440,000 head (-7%).
- Colorado: Inventory at 905,000 head (+2%); August placements at 115,000 head (-18%).
- Iowa: Inventory at 670,000 head (-3%); August placements at 61,000 head (-6%).
Price Outlook: “Given a Chance, These Markets Are Going to Bounce Back”
The recent sell‑off left many producers wondering if the high was in. Peel doesn’t think so.
“Subject to volatility,” he explains. “What should have been a relatively short summer correction turned into a pummeling of the cattle markets. But it was really because of these outside factors. Given a chance, these markets are going to bounce back.”
He expects counter‑seasonal strength in calves and firm prices into year‑end, especially if weather cooperates and wheat pasture demand kicks in.
“I think we’ll see calf prices bounce back counter seasonally. They’re normally low in the fall, and they probably will actually come back a little bit, at least. And here in the southern plains, it’s been so hot and dry. But if we get the cooler weather that’s currently predicted and some rain, that’ll add some wheat pasture demand for stocker type cattle to the mix,” he says.
His long‑term view: the top isn’t in yet.
“I think these prices will stay… strong and probably strengthen kind of through the fourth quarter. And, you know, longer term, I don’t think we’ve seen the high in prices yet because again, we haven’t… really started the herd rebuilding process. That’s what squeezes feeder supplies to their tightest.”
