Last week’s cattle harvest total of 537,000 head was the largest since February, up 9,000 head from the week prior. The Independence Day holiday this week urged an uptick in production volume as greater holiday demand is fulfilled ahead of this week’s shortened production schedule.
Feeders and packers held off trade until very late Friday again as a steady market unfolded at $259/cwt. on a live basis.
Carcass weights continue a slow descent toward anticipated summer lows as the steer carcasses averaged 968 lb. each in the confirmed data two weeks ago. While still 37 lb. heavier than a year ago, the draw down from this spring’s record-highs has been a welcome relief as the share of carcasses disqualified from CAB® acceptance recedes, pulling the brand’s certification rate up to 40% of eligible, Angus-type carcasses in the latest data.
Turning the calendar to July, the wholesale beef market is expected to undergo a lower price trend as consumers turn toward lighter fare as the heat turns up and families are vacationing. The latest weekly comprehensive cutout value (including all grades and delivery periods) was $390.94/cwt., up $14.99/cwt. from a year ago.
In last week’s data, carcass quality price spreads repositioned as the CH/SE spread pressed higher to $19/cwt. on USDA’s report and $24.86/cwt., according to Expana. This is a swift directional change in a matter of weeks, indicating that short-term spot market trends on small volume do not define an enduring market shift.
Seasonal Carcass Impacts
An overriding theme across the past 18 months in the beef sector has been increased carcass weights. In general, fed steer and heifer carcasses averaging 25 to 30 lb. heavier year over year has been a net positive for the industry. At the feedyard, larger gross returns per head have driven tremendous profitability with even greater returns passed back to the cow-calf sector. Domestic beef supply has benefited as fed cattle harvest fell 9% in 2026, while fed carcass tonnage held to a 5.8% decline. When viewed from the productivity lens, heavier weights have been a bit of a savior across multiple sectors.
Those benefits are evident downstream as well, but it’s a bit more of a mixed bag. Considering record-heavy average weights, specifically, the industry has managed to adapt, or at least tolerate, the upward shift in beef cut sizes, etc. Yet the right side of the bell curve contains those ultra-heavy steers, pressing against a ton on the hoof, yielding 1,200 lb. carcasses. Stating this is not a matter of placing blame; rather, it’s simply an outcome advanced by economics.
We often review the downward pressure heavier weights have imposed on CAB acceptance rates as a growing proportion of richly-marbled, exemplary carcasses fail to achieve certification due to carcass weights above the 1,100 lb. limit. This factor had an exaggerated impact in the first four months of 2026 as new record-heavy weights were recorded in March. A seasonal decline in average steer weights has mostly “righted the ship” as the latest steer weights have fallen back to 968 lb. from the 989 lb. March high.
The backfat specification is one that we have focused less attention to, historically, as it has typically ranked fourth among the brand’s 10 carcass specifications when it comes to reasons for certification failure. Yet as average days on feed have now increased to more than 200 days, external carcass fat levels have crept higher. This drove excessive backfat levels (greater than 1 inch measured between the 12th and 13th rib) to the third position among certification failures in the first four months of the year. The 2026 increase for the period indicates 11.8% of eligible carcasses failed due to excessive fat, compared to just 7.3% for that period in 2025. This 11.8% backfat failure rate was slightly greater than the 10.9% rate at which carcasses exceeded the 10 to 17 square inch ribeye specification.
As we near expected July summer lows in fed cattle harvest weights, we anticipate further improvement in acceptable ribeye sizes and backfat measurements. Yet looking ahead to the fall, the trend line data for each of these traits pose potential problems with weights seeking their seasonal, annual highs. If history repeats itself, then new record weights could be charted. This would cause related increases in ribeye area and backfat measurements exceeding brand standards. The potential is quite dependent on the trend for days on feed and feedlot economics through year-end.
An industry-wide review of these topics suggests that modern carcass outcomes, while underpinning supply, are testing upper limits for acceptability outside the scope of CAB brand specifications. Short term economic realities guide management on a “lot by lot” or “season to season” basis for cattle feeders. As cattle supplies begin to shift and utilization rates in feedyards and packing plants evolve, the “tide” has historically shifted rather quickly. The short-term profits are great, but extremely abnormal economics across sectors suggest that rebalancing processor utilization could result in more discount pressure to carcasses on the excessively large and fat end of the bell curve.
