Grain and livestock futures were mixed early Friday.
Cattle Collapse Early Friday
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower early Friday morning awaiting cash trade for direction. Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures were down early on liquidation ahead of the three day weekend with fear of a geopolitical headline that could hurt the market.
Feeder Cattle Collapse on NWS Rumor
However, shortly after recording the feeder cattle futures collapsed on a rumor of a New World Screwworm case being reported in New Mexico. Kooima says has not been confirmed by USDA or other sources but just the headline on social media was enough to cause liquidation by the algorithm traders. Later the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association confirmed there was no case in the U.S. He added that the declining cash index may have also spooked some traders as it may have provided a signal the cash market is starting to plateau. That index was at $369.42 on Friday, down $.27.
Lack of Fed Cash Trade
The lack of fed cash trade through Friday was also weighing on the market early Friday and in the case of the Feb. and April live cattle contracts they have continued to run up into chart resistance within a generally sideways pattern but also causing some bear spreading in the futures. So the market needs some better cash news to break out to the top side of the trading range in the nearby contracts. The deferreds have continued to make new highs for the move.
Who Has the Cash Leverage?
So who has the leverage in the cash market? Packers have cut kills to 32 hours to try to regain some profitability and prop up boxed beef values. Despite that slaughter pace this week has been above last week. Kooima says the packers know how tight the supplies are and are attempting to forego having to pay up for cattle again this week and so he is hopeful the producers can continue to maintain their leverage.
Lean Hogs Make New Contract Highs
Lean hog futures have had a chart breakout with the April and summer months making new contract highs on Thursday. Kooima says heavy disease pressure is starting to be recognized by the market. “We have isowean pigs going for over $100 which is a sign of disease,” he says.
Corn Futures Bounce
Corn futures are higher early Friday seeing some short covering after losing 25 cents on the week in reaction to USDA’s bearish supply numbers. However, Kooima says the market at least held the August lows and should continue to because corn yield is still below the 188.8 bu. per acre yield estimate USDA provided in August.
Soybeans Fall But Hold Double Bottom Support
Soybeans were sliding early Friday but have held support at the January lows around $10.38 on the March contract, which could be a double bottom. It is at least a sign of some short term stability. However, with China nearly done buying U.S. soybeans and a record crop on the way in South America, Kooima is not sure if that support can hold.
Private exporters did report sales of 11.7 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations and 4.7 million bu. to Japan. Both for the 2025-26 marketing year.
