Over the past four weeks beef production has averaged 6.4% lower than last year. Production is expected to drop more sharply the remainder of the year.
Feedlot inventories are at their lowest point in 29 months and placements have been lower in 10 of the past 12 months. Here’s what historical data shows about how the trend may evolve in the coming months.
Despite record beef exports in 2022, signs of weakening beef trade were developing late in the year with beef exports down year-over-year in both November and December.
With continuing drought, it is not clear exactly how cattle and beef market timing will develop going forward, but the question is not one of whether beef production will fall, but rather how fast and how much in 2023.
Uncertain when, but there will be strong interest in rebuilding the herd when conditions permit. Leaving aside the question of more drought, what’s possible in 2023 given current availability of replacement heifers?
Although some recent moisture has reduced drought in Oklahoma, over 80 percent of the state remains in some stage of drought. Cattle producers face considerable challenges to maintain herds through winter.
Feedlots inventories should continue to tighten, and cattle slaughter should decline in the coming weeks, although continued drought conditions may slow the rate of decrease if more animals are liquidated.
Oklahoma has been impacted by drought more than any other state, by several measures. The January 1, 2023, inventory of all cattle and calves in Oklahoma was down 11.5 percent.
With the opportunity to visit a number of cattle feeding operations and learn a bit about how cattle feeding works in this unique environment, Dr. Derrell Peel of OSU shares his experience from his recent trip to Canada.
