The volume of feeder cattle sold in Oklahoma increased nearly 20% from mid-July to mid-October as a result of the drought. Since then, volumes have been down and likely smaller through November.
USDA reported the first year-over-year decrease in feedlot inventories since December 2021, but the decline came from steer numbers as heifers on feed were up 1.4%.
In recent years, Mexican beef production has continued to grow while total domestic consumption has been relatively stable leading to growing beef exports from the country.
The drought situation in Oklahoma is increasingly critical with winter approaching. USDA rated Oklahoma pasture conditions 72 percent poor to very poor in the latest crop progress report.
As much as 11 percent of Oklahoma’s winter wheat has been planted despite soil moisture profiles that are bleak at best. Wheat grazing prospects look dim and risky this fall.
The integration of beef and cattle markets in North America includes trade in live cattle between Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. The recent trade data provides an update of activity for the first seven months of this year.
Calf prices typically reach a seasonal low around October. This year, however, calf prices have moved counter-seasonally higher this summer as part of a general trend of tighter supplies and higher prices.
Given the limited hay supply, proportionally more wheat pasture is likely to be used for cow herds than for stockers. Even if there is wheat pasture, stocker demand may be somewhat lighter than usual this year.
