Market Analysis
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are holding together despite lower cash trade, while grains are finally seeing a bounce in reaction to a China deal on rare earths.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after tanking Tuesday due to geopolitical and war concerns and the lower day in the stock market.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures started the day higher in recovery mode after a poor technical close on Friday and a bearish reversal lower for the week. Soybeans continue to rally on the heels of the surge in bean oil on EPA’s surprise biofuels news.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing risk off selling tied to the news overnight of escalating war between Iran and Israel which has the financial markets sharply lower. Bean oil is limit up on news of higher blending levels for biomass based diesel.
Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade shattered previous records last week and the futures are continuing to make new all-time highs on Monday in both live and feeder cattle futures.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Friday and made all-time highs once again. Futures are still chasing record cash.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle rally chasing record cash with the basis historically wide.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are chasing exploding cash early Friday, with more record high prices paid in all areas. Corn and soybeans continue to be weak with mostly favorable weather.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are seeing some early weakness despite last week’s record cash and neutral USDA Cattle on Feed Report compared to expectations. Corn is down with wheat and mostly favorable weather.
CFTC says expanding trading hours would ensure markets remain vibrant, while commercial hedgers and commodity brokers who work with farmers say it will fuel volatility and won’t make the markets stronger.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says ag markets are seeing red with the threat of 50% tariffs on all EU imports.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are in recovery mode for a second day after scoring key weekly reversals last week on the charts, a bearish sign of a possible top. Corn is also trying to bounce after new lows for the year in the December contract.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says after two ugly down days in cattle futures the markets are trying to recover and so is the soybean market.
The markets have several big headlines they’re digesting including news over the weekend that China and the U.S. are de-escalating the tariff war.
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle continue to hit all-time highs in cash and futures. While corn is seeing some short covering after new lows for the move on Thursday.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cash cattle trade was record high again last week with $223 live paid in much of the North and even a few $224 trades to a regional. Grains are mostly lower.
Last week’s 5-area weighted average cash cattle price hit a new high at $216.32, up $3.56 from the previous record set March 21.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains are seeing pressure on weather. However, both live and feeder cattle futures are making new contract and all-time highs on last week’s record cash.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grains lose early strength running into chart resistance. While cattle also started higher with the sharply higher cash trade Thursday but faded.
In times of chaos, it’s best to go back to the basics of basis and price. Effective risk management has little room for mistakes, but that doesn’t mean it has to be perfect.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle are seeing followthrough buying and strength Monday morning as the S&P 500 continues to stabilize and recover after the tariff delays.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist says the markets reacted positively to the 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs for countries that reached out to negotiate with the U.S. and did not retaliate.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle see buying interest after strong cash late last week. Corn tries to hold gains with soybeans seeing South American harvest pressure and concern about China’s 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans.
CattleFax released its annual price projections at CattleCon and expects cattle prices to stay strong for a while.
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures prices have been forced higher as Live Cattle contracts had been lagging negotiated values until recent days.
Now in mid-January, the cattle markets are showing exceptional optimism. Packers were actively bidding to capture spot market needs.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures recovered nicely from Friday’s selloff with some contracts making new highs for the move, pricing in record cash cattle trade. Grain markets are seeing fund buying with soybeans and meal leading on dry weather forecasts for Argentina.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn ended lower on a combination of profit taking and farmer selling after running into chart resistance.
Calf and feeder cattle prices have been much more active in the past three weeks with two market-moving events, including precipitation in the central states and the temporary closure of the southern border due to screwworms.
Market update for week of Oct. 23 and a look at how carcass weigh and ribeye sizes correlates..