What We Know About Risk in Beef Production

The beef industry has spent years studying what can go wrong. A new evidence map shows what we’ve learned and where the next questions may need to come from.

2022 Beef Production Favorite Stories
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(Farm Journal)

A calf breaks with pneumonia. Feed costs climb. Drought changes the forage base. A new disease shows up in a neighboring state. A vaccine program that worked well last year suddenly doesn’t seem to be delivering the same results.

Beef producers already know risk rarely arrives one problem at a time.

A new mapping review offers a chance to step back and look at the bigger picture: What has the beef industry actually spent the past 15 years studying as potential threats, and what can that body of research tell us about managing risk on real operations?

Researchers identified 1,064 studies published from 2010 through 2024 that addressed threats to the pre-harvest U.S. beef production system, from feed production and veterinary services through cow-calf, backgrounding, grass-finishing and feedlot operations. They mapped the threats themselves, along with where research was conducted, what kinds of evidence were generated and what solutions were studied.

The result isn’t a list of what producers should worry about. It is a picture of where the industry’s knowledge is deep, where it is thinner and where we can ask better questions of the research already available.

Four findings stand out.

1. We Know a Lot About Disease.

If you want to understand where beef research has put its attention, start with disease.

Biological threats accounted for 793 of the 1,064 studies, or 74.5% of the evidence base. Bovine respiratory disease alone accounted for 250 studies, or 23.5% of all included studies. Other frequently studied threats included foot-and-mouth disease, BVD, cattle toxicosis, parasites, bovine tuberculosis, Johne’s disease and bovine babesiosis.

That concentration makes sense. Disease can move through cattle populations, affect health and performance and create consequences that extend beyond an individual animal. However, the findings support another important consideration: Don’t let the disease checklist become the entire risk assessment.

The review identified environmental, management, nutritional, chemical, economic and regulatory threats alongside biological ones. Yet those categories received considerably less research attention. Environmental threats represented 7.8% of studies, management 7.1%, nutritional 3.2%, chemical or toxic threats 2.7% and economic or market threats 2.4%.

This doesn’t mean that these less-studied threats are more or less important than disease. It only shows that the evidence base is heavily weighted toward biological risk.

That gives veterinarians and producers a reason to occasionally widen the conversation.

What happens to this operation if feed availability changes? If environmental conditions alter disease exposure? If labor becomes harder to find? If cattle are moved through a different marketing channel? If an emerging disease changes the assumptions behind the current biosecurity plan?

The goal isn’t to build a contingency plan for every possible scenario, but to recognize which weaknesses could make an otherwise manageable problem much harder to absorb.

2. A National Threat Can Look Very Different from Operation to Operation.

The word risk can mean something very different at the national level than it does from the cab of a pickup.

More than 60% of the studies in the review were conducted at the state or local level. Yet 40.4% of the threats were classified as having national impacts and another 34.8% as having global impacts. The researchers describe this as a scale mismatch. Much of the evidence comes from localized research, while many of the threats are framed as problems that could affect the broader beef industry.

Localized research can be extremely useful. A study conducted on a particular group of cattle, in a particular environment, can reveal a mechanism or management practice that has value elsewhere. The question is how confidently those results can be generalized.

The authors call for more research at regional, national and cross-national scales, while also noting that state- and individual-level vulnerability, adaptive capacity and intervention effectiveness deserve more attention.

For producers, a national risk assessment still has to become a local risk assessment.

Consider disease surveillance. A pathogen may be a national concern, but the relevant questions for one operation might include cattle movement, commingling, wildlife exposure, geography, vaccination practices and access to diagnostics.

The same principle applies to environmental and management threats. Research can tell us that something increases risk or that an intervention can reduce it. It cannot automatically tell us what that risk looks like on a particular ranch.

That is where the veterinarian’s knowledge of the operation becomes part of the evidence equation.

3. An Intervention Isn’t Useful until Someone Can Implement It.

The beef industry has generated a lot of experimental evidence. Nearly 60% of the studies in the review were laboratory, field-testing or pilot studies. Only 12.7% focused on intervention, diffusion or adoption, while policy-only studies represented just 0.4%.

The authors describe the evidence base as technically strong but less balanced when it comes to understanding how interventions are implemented, coordinated and sustained in commercial production. They identify sparse research in policy, education, regulatory and adoption-oriented areas as a particular gap.

That gap shows up in a very practical question: Can this operation actually do it?

A management practice may work under study conditions and still run into problems when it meets a busy calving season, limited labor, difficult facilities, cattle that don’t cooperate or a producer who is already juggling several other priorities.

Implementation may depend on cost, timing, equipment, training, recordkeeping or the ability to consistently perform the intervention.

Those factors aren’t always the focus of a controlled study.

The authors specifically identify veterinarians, Extension professionals, producer organizations, industry groups and animal-health agencies as important partners in supporting operation-specific adoption and preparedness. They recommend combining technical research with implementation and economic analyses that consider feasibility, capacity and stakeholder costs and benefits.

For veterinarians, that creates an opportunity to add another question to the familiar “Does it work?”

“What would it take to make it work here?”

That may be one of the most useful questions a veterinarian can bring to a research discussion with a producer.

4. “Studied” Doesn’t Always Mean “We Know How Well It Works Here.”

The review found that vaccination and disease control were the most frequently reported mitigation strategies, followed by diagnostics and surveillance and environmental and management practices. Together, those three categories represented more than half of the mapped solution evidence.

That gives producers and veterinarians plenty of evidence to work with. It also creates a temptation to stop at the first question: Has this been studied?

The map suggests asking a few more.

Among the studies that reported solutions, 48.3% reported positive effectiveness, 7.6% reported mixed results, 4.6% reported no significant effect and 1.5% reported negative effects. Another 38.0% did not report an effectiveness outcome.

That 38% should not be interpreted as 38% of interventions failing. It means the studies did not report an effectiveness outcome that could be classified.

For someone trying to make a management decision, that distinction is useful. Instead of stopping at “This intervention has been studied,” ask:

  • What outcome did the researchers measure?
  • How large was the effect?
  • Under what conditions did it work?
  • How similar were those cattle and that production system to mine?
  • What did it take to implement?

Those questions help separate evidence that is interesting from evidence that is actionable.

From Research Map to Ranch Reality

The industry has a substantial body of research on biological threats, particularly disease. Much of that research comes from localized or experimental settings. Mitigation research is concentrated around technical approaches such as disease control, diagnostics and management. At the same time, there is considerably less evidence about adoption, implementation, policy and the practical conditions that determine whether a solution can be sustained in commercial production.

That doesn’t mean the industry needs to stop studying disease or start chasing every underrepresented category. It means there are questions that deserve to be asked alongside the ones researchers are already answering.

For producers, that might mean looking at a new piece of research and asking where it fits into the operation rather than simply whether the result sounds promising.

For veterinarians, it might mean broadening the conversation from disease prevention to risk management: What could challenge this operation? Which vulnerabilities are most relevant here? Which interventions have evidence behind them? And what would it take to make those interventions work consistently?

The researchers ultimately call for a more balanced evidence base that connects technical evaluations with implementation, economics, institutional capacity and the roles of veterinarians, Extension, producer organizations, industry and animal-health agencies.

That may be the real value of mapping 1,064 studies.

It doesn’t tell a producer what the next problem will be. It gives the industry a better view of what we know, what we don’t and where to start asking better questions.

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