The last two years proved when you deliver quality beef, consumers will show up with their wallets open. Even as the U.S. cattle herd contracted to historic lows, Americans consumed more beef and paid more for it in 2024 and 2025, sending a powerful demand signal from the retail meat case all the way back to the ranch.
Ask most cattle producers why prices are so strong today and you’ll hear the same answer: there just aren’t enough cows. Tight supplies matter, but Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University agricultural economist, argues that’s only half the story.
The more powerful force, he says, is on the demand side. Americans are eating more beef per person — and willingly paying more for it.
“The more important supply statement would be beef pounds on market, not number of cows,” Tonsor says.
Even as cattle inventories have declined, per‑capita beef consumption has held up or increased in most recent years. At the same time, real (inflation‑adjusted) retail beef prices have climbed.
“Over the last 15 years, from 2011 to 2025, the average American is consuming more beef and paying a lot more for it,” he summarizes.
Taste Rules the Meat Case
If customer demand is holding the market up, what exactly do those customers care about?
Tonsor points to K-State’s Meat Demand Monitor, a monthly, nationally representative survey of U.S. residents that digs into meat and protein choices. Respondents must rank which of 12 factors matter most and least when they buy (or don’t buy) meat.
“In 2025, 59% of the U.S. public told us that taste is a top‑four factor in whether they do or don’t buy meat,” he says. “Conversely, only about 13% put taste in the bottom four.”
The survey design forces trade‑offs — people can’t simply say everything is important — so the ranking is meaningful. Over the last six years, he adds, nutrition and health have gained importance, while environmental impact and origin/traceability have lost ground.
“What has not changed over the last six years is that taste is the leading factor of the 12,” Tonsor emphasizes. “It’s always No. 1.”
That matters when you compare beef to cheaper proteins.
“If you want to justify a more expensive protein — which is what beef is — it has to have an attribute beyond just the price per ounce of protein,” he says. “In my opinion, that attribute is taste.”
Quality Is the Economic Engine
Quality is the economic engine: long‑run gains in marbling, grading and consistency are why beef can command a 50% higher real price vs. 2010 at similar per‑capita volume.
Research on beef quality and value shows how far the industry has come — from 1990s complaints over fat, toughness and inconsistency to a modern supply where the “upper two‑thirds Choice and Prime” story is the rule rather than the exception.
“You cannot talk beef and not talk quality,” Tonsor summarizes. “The only way you justify the beef existence is for it to have a quality argument over pork and chicken because the production costs per pound will always be higher.”
Headwinds on the Horizon
As 2026 unfolds, the demand signal is changing tone.
Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky livestock agriculture economist, says he wonders how long the strength in beef demand can hold.
“Consumers have been very resilient in the face of high prices and have shown incredible willingness to continue to consume beef,” he says. “As the most expensive of the three main meats consumed in the U.S., beef is also likely the most vulnerable to substitution as consumer disposable income becomes squeezed.”
The pork and broiler sectors are also able to expand production much quicker, and we are seeing increased production of both. He predicts the odds are high that more pork and poultry will be on the market by the time beef production increases.
“Sometimes it is assumed that cattle prices only come down as cattle inventory and beef production increase, but competing meats can take space on the consumer plate,” he summarizes.
Tonsor predicts demand could be plateauing in 2026. The monthly demand has weakened in the last three months, mainly among lower‑income households. He says high‑income consumers are still trading up.
“Certainly, the last three months, I’m seeing beef demand weaken,” Tonsor explains. “Now, it’s weakening from a strong spot, from a historical perspective, we still have notably high willingness to pay.”
He points to a string of macroeconomic realities now weighing on that momentum: gas price spikes, high interest rates, inflation and broader financial pessimism. Those pressures are making many families more cautious, even if they still value beef as a centerpiece protein.
Tonsor doesn’t pretend demand strength is guaranteed. He lists two main watch‑outs: macro‑economy and policy. He notes that, in the Meat Demand Monitor, the “desire to cheapen meat purchases” has become a clear trend. Price has moved up the list of considerations alongside taste and freshness.
In other words, consumers aren’t walking away from beef — but they are looking harder at the price tag and the package size.
Living in a K‑Shaped Economy
One of the clearest concepts shaping Tonsor’s outlook is the “K‑shaped economy.” He describes a split where roughly 20% of the public report better finances than a year ago, while 30% to 40% report worse finances.
The July MDM report shows the K-shaped economy: weaker finances mean less beef and less restaurant spending.
That split is showing up directly in the meat case.
Those on the upper “arm” of the K are still buying premium steaks and high‑end cuts. For this group, quality is non‑negotiable and price sensitivity is relatively low. For the bottom “arm” of the K, though, the story is different: they are eating beef less frequently, shopping more aggressively on price and often trading down within the beef category or to alternative proteins when budgets are tight.
High‑end items like ribeye steaks remain less price‑sensitive than lower‑end ground beef purchases, but even there, portion size and sticker shock matter. Consumers may still choose beef — but they’re more likely to opt for smaller packages, thinner steaks or value‑focused cuts.
“The top 20% haven’t changed their steak night — but 30% to 40% of households are quietly dropping beef from one more meal a week,” Tonsor says.
He summarizes inflation, higher interest rates and stagnant wages are tightening household budgets, and it’s starting to show up in how often — and how much — people buy beef.
At the same time, consumers continue to insist on high-quality, convenient portions and protein-rich diets, even as they adjust to new health trends like GLP‑1 drugs. The result is a more complicated demand picture that producers will have to navigate carefully in the years ahead.
For now, though, Tonsor’s message to producers is straightforward: today’s strong cattle and beef prices rest on more than a small cow herd. They are being held up by a consumer who values beef more than ever.
Tonsor was a guest on AgriTalk Sept. 17 discussing beef demand. You can listen to the conversation here:
