Although drought persists north and south of Oklahoma, forage conditions have improved greatly in the state this summer. July was the seventh wettest July on record in Oklahoma.
Dynamic cattle and grain market conditions mean that producers will need to carefully and frequently evaluate stocker budget prospects this fall prior to stocker purchase.
Despite sharply higher cattle prices, there is no data to suggest heifer retention or enough decrease in beef cow slaughter to initiate herd expansion, although the most recent weekly slaughter data are encouraging.
The most recent USDA cattle inventory reports reveal herd numbers continue to shrink, the 2023 mid-year beef cow inventory the lowest in the data set dating back to 1973. Feeder supplies will likely shrink through 2024.
The sharp increase in feeder cattle prices this year represents a growing market incentive for the beef cattle industry to transition from liquidation to expansion, but it does not appear the industry is responding yet.
July’s cattle inventory report will show continued declines to the beef cow herd. While beef cow slaughter is down thus far, the current pace suggests a herd culling rate over 12 percent for the year.
Beef imports will continue to be supported by higher domestic beef prices and the reduction in U.S. processing beef supplies due to reduced cow slaughter.
Prices are higher as tighter numbers and beef supplies push markets toward record levels. The biggest question now is the extent herd rebuilding begins with increased heifer retention and reductions in cow slaughter.
The arrival of El Niño likely means that additional drought impacts will be minimal and herd expansion may begin. The July Cattle inventory report may be the first sign showing an increase of beef replacement heifers.
