Increased steer and heifer carcass weights are offsetting decreased slaughter to result in a fractional increase in fed beef production for the year to date with significant increases in recent weeks.
With less drought in the U.S. than at any time since April 2020, pasture and range conditions are generally good. What might that mean for heifer retention?
USDA’s Cattle on Feed report for May 1 found 11.554 million head on feed, down 1% and the first year-over-year decrease in feedlot inventories in eight months.
USDA reports 47% of pasture and range conditions are in good to excellent health, compared to just 34% a year ago. Pasture and range conditions rated poor and very poor is down 9% from last year.
As replacement heifer inventory increases the percentage of heifers in the fed slaughter mix declines. That decline in the recent cycle was especially sharp, dropping below 34% for three years.
Cattle markets have settled into the knowledge that HPAI H5N1 avian influenza has relatively minor impacts on cattle and has no human health implications for meat or pasteurized dairy products.
While the heifer percentage in feedlots remains above the average of the past ten years, the decline from January to April is an encouraging sign that heifer feeding is perhaps slowing.
Carcass weights have trended heavier for over 60 years with steer carcass weights increasing by an average of 4.0 pounds per year, up over 240 pounds from 660 pounds in the 1960s to over 900 pounds in recent years.
