According to the USDA-NASS Crop Production report released on Aug. 12, 2026, the total U.S. hay supply is forecast to contract by 7.2% for the 2026 crop year. Despite a robust 19.5% year-over-year increase in May 1 carryover stocks, a sharp 7.9% drop in expected annual production (and a 9.3% plunge compared to the 10-year average) will drive overall feed availability down.
In a recent Cow-Calf Corner article, Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, summarizes what these numbers mean for producers heading into winter.
What is the 2026 U.S. Hay Supply Forecast?
The total U.S. hay supply — which includes May 1 carryover stocks and current-year production — is projected to experience a year-over-year contraction.
- May 1 Carryover Stocks: Up 19.5% year-over-year and 19.5% higher than the 10-year (2015 to 2024) average. The top 10 states for carryover accounted for 62.6% of this inventory.
- Total Hay Production: Projected to drop 9.3% compared to the 10-year average and 7.9% year-over-year.
- Net Hay Supply Impact: An overall 7.2% decline in total hay supply for the 2026 season.
How Will 2026 Alfalfa Hay Production Compare?
Total U.S. alfalfa hay production is forecast to reach 10.4% below its 10-year average and 5.0% below last year’s level.
- Top 10 Producing States: These states represent 58.2% of total national alfalfa output but are down 10.4% on average.
- Where Alfalfa is Declining: Production fell in seven of the top 10 states.
- Where Alfalfa is Increasing: Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota are the only top-10 states projecting year-over-year alfalfa production increases.
How Much Other Hay (Grass/Forage) Will Be Produced in 2026?
Other hay production is forecasted to drop to 9.9% below last year’s level and 8.4% below the 10-year average.
- Top 10 Producing States: Account for 57.1% of the nation’s other hay production.
- State-by-State Trends: Nine of the top 10 states are projecting declines relative to their 10-year averages.
- The Sole Exception: Arkansas is the only top-10 other hay producing state expected to show a production increase.
What is the 2026 Hay Supply Per Head of Cattle?
A vital metric for livestock producers is the relative hay supply per animal unit. For the 2026 crop year, the average hay supply per head of cattle is 1.59 tons.
Peel explains while this figure is down from last year, it remains virtually equal to the 15-year national average, offering a stable but tighter cushion for beef and dairy operations heading into the winter months.
