When will the beef cow herd actually begin to rebuild? It is the “million-dollar question” facing beef producers across the country.
Recent survey findings from Drovers’ State of the Beef Industry Report reveal 55% of producers plan to grow their herd size over the next five years — an 8% jump compared to last year. While the sentiment points toward recovery, Maples points out the wide gulf between producer ambition and the reality in the pens.
“I think that number reflects that there is a clear desire to grow the beef cow herd,” explains Josh Maples, in the premiere episode of the “I’m A Drover” podcast. “You know, sometimes I think desires and intentions don’t always work out the way we want them to, unfortunately.”
Maples, Mississippi State University assistant Extension director and associate professor of agricultural economics, digs past the headlines to examine the true financial drivers dictating expansion decisions on the ground.
Overcoming Margin Hangover and Market Memory
Why hasn’t widespread heifer retention materialized yet? Maples explains many producers are only now shaking off several consecutive tight-margin years (2018 to 2022). Rather than immediately pouring cash into herd expansion, recent profits were spent recovering equity and upgrading long-neglected infrastructure.
Compounding the hesitation is the historical memory of past boom-and-bust cycles.
“A lot of producers remember how quickly prices went up and then came right back down in 2014 and 2015, and so I think part of that is driving the fact that we haven’t really started expanding,” he says.
Retain Heifers or Buy Bred Stock?
There is no single price that makes retaining a heifer the right choice for every farm or ranch. Maples says producers should compare the value of a heifer calf they could sell with the cost of buying a bred heifer — and account for how quickly each option could contribute to the herd.
With high feeder calf values near historical highs, producers are left calculating opportunity costs down to the penny.
“If you look at bred heifer prices, you can look at some sales in the Southeast, in particular, $4,000 to $5,000 as some sort of a range,” Maples explains. “But if you compare that to what calf prices currently are selling that heifer calf — heifer calf’s worth $2,000 to $2,200 or more. You’re giving up next year’s calf [if you keep your own]. You’ve got to develop her. You’re not getting a calf out of her for a year and a half. If you go buy a bred heifer, you can have a calf next year.”
For producers weighing that exact choice this fall, Maples urges everyone to avoid looking strictly at general market averages.
“There’s not a clear retain your heifers. There’s not a clear buy bred heifers. It really is going to depend on what your production costs are to really drive that decision. So I encourage producers to figure out that production cost,” he summarizes.
Know Your Development Costs
Maples encourages producers to calculate what it would actually cost to develop a heifer rather than relying on industry averages. Estimates for developing a heifer often fall between $750 and $1,000, but expenses vary widely from ranch to ranch. Producers must also account for open rates, as heifers that fail to conceive will ultimately be marketed at a discount.
A low-cost operation with ample forage and a tight breeding window may have a stronger case for developing its own replacements. Conversely, if yardage and feed costs are high — or the ranch only needs a handful of head — purchasing bred stock often makes better financial sense.
The 2031 Production Horizon
The calculation also reaches beyond the next calf crop. A heifer retained or purchased today could remain in the herd for years, so producers must form realistic price expectations well into the future.
Maples says he remains optimistic because cattle supplies are historically tight and expansion appears slow, but uncertainty about future prices is still the risk weighing most heavily on the decision.
“Deciding to retain that heifer right now depends on what you think you’re going to get for her calf in 2031,” Maples notes.
For producers considering expansion, Maples’ advice is to run the numbers for their own operation, assess their production costs and make the decision with a long-term view — not rely on a one-size-fits-all answer.
🎧 Listen Now: Hear Josh Maples outline the investment horizon, long-term calf values and herd retention calculators on Segment 1 of the “I’m A Drover” podcast on Farm Journal platforms.
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