A powerful El Niño is beginning to make its presence felt across the United States, delivering a dramatic contrast in weather conditions that could have significant implications for agriculture heading into winter. While it’s almost certain it will be a mild winter for most of the Midwest, the bigger wild card is how much - or little - the upper Midwest may get.
In the Southwest, some areas have received several times their normal rainfall over the past month, contributing to catastrophic flooding in states like Colorado and Arizona. Meanwhile, parts of the Midwest remain dry, raising concerns about whether winter precipitation will be enough to replenish soil moisture before the next growing season.
And the weather pattern responsible for those extremes could be just getting started.
For farmers, that means the same climate pattern could bring much-needed moisture to some areas, worsening drought in others and potentially creating excessive rainfall in regions still working to wrap up harvest.
El Niño’s Influence Is Already Showing Up in the Southwest
The recent flooding across parts of the Southwest is one of the most dramatic examples of how the developing El Niño is influencing weather patterns. Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says some locations across the Southwest have received between 200% and 600% of their normal precipitation over the past 30 days.
The heaviest rainfall has been concentrated across southern and southwestern Colorado, northwestern New Mexico, Arizona and southeastern California.
But the precipitation hasn’t been evenly distributed. Northern California and the Pacific Northwest have received considerably less moisture, while another band of heavy rainfall has extended across parts of West Texas, southeastern Colorado, Kansas and central Oklahoma.
“It’s been phenomenal,” Bledsoe says. “You go from not nearly enough to way too much in a short period of time. And that’s exactly what we’ve done.”
Bledsoe says an especially active Eastern Pacific hurricane season, fueled in part by the strong El Niño, has helped contribute to the unusual movement of tropical moisture farther north into the United States.
“When you situate the pattern the way we have, you can transfer a lot of that tropical moisture farther north,” he says. “That’s really what’s been responsible for producing those record-setting rains across a good chunk of the South and the southwestern portion of the U.S.”
That influx of moisture has created a challenging situation for areas that were previously dealing with dry conditions. And the rainfall isn’t necessarily finished.
More Heavy Rain Could Complicate Harvest
The next round of weather could bring another significant precipitation event across parts of the country.
Bledsoe says a major storm system moving through during the early to middle part of the week is expected to deliver widespread rainfall, with particularly significant totals possible across the San Juan Mountains of Colorado and the Mogollon Rim of Arizona.
The system is also expected to bring meaningful precipitation across the Missouri and Mississippi valleys, extending south toward the Gulf Coast as it moves eastward. That could create additional challenges for farmers still trying to finish harvest.
“You don’t want this kind of rain during the harvest time and wrapping things out,” Bledsoe says. “But this is exactly what we’re going to get during the early to middle part of this upcoming week.”
The rainfall could provide relief in some areas, but excessive moisture also brings concerns about field access, harvest delays and saturated soils.
The larger question is whether the active moisture pattern will eventually shift eastward and bring precipitation to areas that have been missing out. Bledsoe says he expects the pattern to eventually become more favorable for areas farther east, including East Texas and communities along the Gulf Coast.
For now, however, the divide between areas receiving too much moisture and those receiving too little remains pronounced.
A Mild Pattern Is Keeping Cold Air Out
While precipitation is creating headlines across the Southwest, another defining characteristic of the current weather pattern is the lack of significant cold air. Bledsoe says the temperature outlook over the next seven days shows widespread above-normal temperatures stretching from western and northwestern Canada into the Great Lakes.
The only areas expected to experience below-normal temperatures during that period are parts of the far Southwest, largely because of the extensive rainfall and active storm track.
That means meaningful snowfall will largely remain confined to the mountains and higher elevations.
“We are going to struggle to get any significant snow anywhere in this forecast down at lower elevations until we completely shift this pattern and bring some cool air in,” Bledsoe says.
Some areas that haven’t experienced their first freeze of the season could continue waiting. Bledsoe points out the persistent Pacific influence and lack of cold-air intrusions are consistent with the type of mild pattern often associated with El Niño.
For farmers, that could mean an extended window of warmer conditions, although additional rainfall could still complicate fieldwork.
What Does This Mean for Midwest Farmers Heading Into Winter?
The current weather pattern also provides a glimpse into some of the challenges climatologists are watching as the Super El Niño develops. Kenny Blumenfeld, senior climatologist with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and based at the University of Minnesota’s St. Paul campus, says this is one of the most difficult winters to forecast.
“This one is a doozy,” he says. “It’s difficult because we don’t know how warm it’s going to be and we don’t know who’s going to win and who’s going to lose on the moisture and usually we have clearer signs than that.”
Blumenfeld points out there is strong confidence that the developing El Niño will bring warmer-than-normal winter conditions across much of the Upper Midwest.
“We know with almost absolute certainty that a big El Niño, like the one that’s coming, is going to produce a lot of warm conditions and probably some really mild winter conditions,” Blumenfeld says.
The farther north you go, the stronger that temperature signal becomes. But Blumenfeld says the amount of snow that falls and stays on the ground could determine just how extreme those temperatures become.
Snow cover reflects sunlight away from the Earth’s surface, helping keep temperatures cooler. Without that insulating layer of snow, the ground can absorb more energy, allowing temperatures to climb considerably higher. Blumenfeld estimates the difference between areas with snow cover and those without it can reach 10 to 15 degrees.
For Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, that creates two very different possibilities.
If significant snow accumulates and remains on the ground, winter temperatures could still be unusually mild but somewhat moderated by the snow cover. If the region doesn’t receive much snow, however, the potential for record-setting warmth increases.
Farther south, including Iowa, Nebraska and Illinois, the temperature outlook could be somewhat different, but the uncertainty surrounding precipitation remains.
Will El Niño Make Midwest Drought Worse?
While the Southwest is dealing with excessive rainfall, parts of the Upper Midwest are entering winter with existing moisture concerns, and this is creating concerns about intensifying drought.
Blumenfeld says Minnesota and Wisconsin are among the areas already experiencing dry conditions. Because winter is typically the region’s dry season, the concern is that insufficient precipitation could prevent meaningful drought improvement.
The Upper Midwest normally receives only about one-quarter of its annual precipitation during winter compared with summer. That makes winter snowfall and precipitation particularly important for replenishing soil moisture ahead of spring planting.
“We kind of rely on winter to break things up and put snow on the ground and replenish soils,” Blumenfeld says.
But El Niño doesn’t necessarily mean every part of the Midwest will be dry.
In fact, the same moisture patterns contributing to heavy rainfall across the Southwest could eventually bring significant precipitation farther north and east.
Blumenfeld says an influx of subtropical moisture from the Pacific can sometimes move into the southern United States and, under certain atmospheric patterns, get pulled into the Midwest and Upper Midwest.
That creates the possibility of some areas receiving substantially more winter precipitation than normal.
“That moisture plume can at times deliver more moisture than a region has ever seen during the wintertime,” he says.
The challenge is knowing where that moisture will end up.
Iowa, Kansas and even Minnesota could potentially see significant precipitation, but the distribution remains difficult to predict.
Some areas could miss out and experience worsening drought, while others could receive excessive moisture.
Arctic Cold Could Be Less Frequent This Winter
Another question heading into winter is whether the Midwest will experience another round of the intense Arctic outbreaks seen during the past two winters.
Blumenfeld says even strong El Niño events can produce periods of bitter cold. However, those Arctic intrusions typically are less frequent and less intense.
“Most even really intense El Niños do produce a period or two of cold weather,” he says. “They’re just not as frequent and not as intense.”
For Minnesota, Blumenfeld points to one particularly interesting possibility: whether temperatures will fall below zero in the Twin Cities this winter.
Historically, every winter has brought at least one subzero reading somewhere in the Twin Cities area. But with the potential for persistent warmth and limited snow cover, even that familiar winter benchmark could be in question.
A Winter Forecast With Plenty of Unknowns
For climatologists and weather forecasters, the developing Super El Niño is creating a complicated forecast.
The temperature signal is becoming increasingly clear, with much of the Upper Midwest expected to experience above-normal temperatures.
But precipitation remains a much bigger question mark.
The recent flooding across the Southwest demonstrates just how dramatically moisture patterns can shift, with some locations receiving 200% to 600% of normal rainfall in a single month while other areas continue to miss out.
And as the El Niño pattern matures, those moisture sources could shift into different parts of the country.
Blumenfeld says the combination of uncertainty surrounding temperatures, snow cover and precipitation makes this an especially challenging winter to forecast.
“This one is a doozy,” he says. “It’s difficult because we don’t know how warm it’s going to be, and we don’t know who’s going to win and who’s going to lose on the moisture.”
For farmers, the stakes extend beyond winter weather. The amount of precipitation received over the next several months could help determine soil moisture conditions heading into the 2027 growing season.
The takeaway: El Niño is already influencing weather across the United States, but its effects won’t be felt equally. From flooding in the Southwest to drought concerns in the Upper Midwest, the coming months could bring dramatically different conditions depending on where the moisture ultimately settles.
