While early autumn brought glimmers of stability to the fed cattle and feeder calf sectors, the cull cow market has taken a sharp downturn heading into the final quarter of the year. Analysts point to a convergence of seasonal supply pressures, rising dairy culling, weather-driven marketings and policy shifts on lean beef imports as major drivers pulling cow values off their summer highs.
David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension livestock economist, explains in a recent Southern Ag Today article cull cow values have seen a steady pullback over the late summer and early autumn.
“Cull cow prices in the Southern Plains peaked at $187 this past spring but have steadily declined to about $154 at the end of September,” Anderson notes. “This 18% decline in cow prices is not far off the normal seasonal decline from about June to October of about 24%.”
Further east, the drop has felt more pronounced relative to historic seasonal patterns.
“Cull cow prices in Kentucky are down more than $30 per cwt from their summer highs,” says Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky livestock agriculture economist. “For the 10-year period from 2016 to 2025, the average decline in cull cow values in Kentucky from July to September was $4 to $5 cwt. Cull cow prices tend to decline seasonally from summer to winter. The drop over the last couple months has just far exceeded the seasonal norm.”
Rising Domestic Culling and Lean Trim Supplies
Cow slaughter typically reaches its lowest levels in mid-summer before building into the fall. This year’s fall run is unfolding against a backdrop of expanded dairy cow inventories and emerging dry conditions across beef-producing regions.
The primary drivers behind the price retreat are classic supply shifts combined with international trade flow changes.
While weekly beef cow slaughter sat near multi-year lows in August and remains well below year-ago levels, total cow slaughter is receiving significant support from the dairy sector.
In Cattle Market Notes Weekly, Burdine emphasizes drought conditions are compounding the volume of cows entering marketing channels.
“Cow slaughter has ticked upward recently,” Burdine explains. “Beef cow slaughter is still down 14% year-to-date, but the last couple weeks for which we have data has been very similar to 2025. Dairy cow slaughter has been running higher in 2026 and the combination of the two was actually above year-ago levels for the first couple weeks of September. A casual glance at the drought monitor would lead one to assume those widespread dry conditions are pulling more cows to market.”
Anderson adds, “Weekly dairy cow culling has been increasing since May and is at a faster pace than last year. More dairy cows are going to market largely because the dairy cow herd is the largest since the early 1990s.”
As non-fed beef processing climbs, the ground beef and lean trim markets have reacted immediately. Anderson observes, “the wholesale price for 90% lean beef has declined from $4.49 to $4.11 per lb. over the last 4 weeks as increasing supplies hit the market.”
The Lean Beef Import Influence
Beyond domestic supply dynamics, the recent tariff-rate quota (TRQ) expansion for ground beef trimmings has cast a noticeable shadow over cow-calf salvage values.
“I think the largest factor behind the recent weakness in the cull cow market was the announcement of the plan to increase imports for ground beef production,” Burdine argues. “Cull cow and bull markets are largely driven by trim values and ground beef demand, so it stands to reason that they would be the most impacted.”
Examining import volumes, Burdine notes, “Based on the U.S. Customs’ Commodity Status Report for Sept. 28, about 37,000 metric tons (MT) had been imported under the new tariff-rate quota since the first of the month. This is well shy of the September maximum of 100,000 MT. It is also worth noting that some of that beef was likely already coming into U.S. as we have been consistently importing beef in excess of the previously existing multi-country TRQ ... but the negative impact on cattle markets was felt very quickly.”
Anderson agrees import flows are now playing a direct role in lean beef values. “The U.S. was already importing a record amount of beef, the majority of which is lean beef trimmings for ground beef, when the announcement was made that relaxing the tariff-rate quota allowing more of this beef into the country with no tariff. Some beef, above already expected imports, is likely starting to enter the country based on the latest weekly customs data.”
Producer Strategy: Managing the Open Cow
For commercial cattle producers, seasonal price softness coincides with pregnancy checks and fall weaning. With lower cull prices, producers must weigh whether to market open or marginal cows immediately or explore feeding options to add weight and grade.
Even with seasonal softness, the broader historical value of cull cows remains a critical piece of total herd revenue.
When evaluating open or late-calving cows this fall, cow-calf producers should keep several management factors front and center:
- Feed and Forage Availability: Feeding open cows through the winter requires low-cost feed resources to make financial sense. If pasture or hay supplies are tight, capturing historically elevated cull values today often outweighs holding costs.
- Value of Gain: Thin, healthy cows (body condition score 3 to 4) have the potential to make rapid, efficient gains if cheap byproduct feeds or winter pasture are available. Upgrading a cull cow from “Cutter/Canner” to “Boner/Breaker” grade can provide a bump in both weight and price per hundredweight.
- Seasonal Rebound Timing: Historically, cull cow prices bottom between late October and November before mounting a seasonal recovery in the first quarter of the new year as slaughter runs taper off.
What’s Ahead for Late Fall?
Slaughter cow volumes are expected to remain elevated into November.
“As we move through fall, both cow slaughter and trim import levels bear watching,” Burdine cautions. “At the same time, we usually see beef cow slaughter at its highest during the fourth quarter as spring-born calves are weaned and culling decisions are made. Drought conditions in much of the country are likely to amplify that in 2026. This combination of factors make it hard to be bullish on this cull cow market as we move towards winter.”
Anderson maintains a long-term perspective: “Increasing cow culling over the next 2 months should continue to pressure prices lower,” Anderson concludes. “But, while lower, cow prices should remain at historically high levels.”
