Speer: You Versus You
Behavioral Finance: My column from several weeks ago (Some More Most Important Things) highlighted Damian Mason’s podcast (Business of Agriculture). The column featured the episode with Joe Vaclavik, Standard Grain. Their discussion was entitled, “It’s Time To Simplify Your Grain Marketing”.
How does that apply here? Vaclavik outlined some key principles important to grain marketing. But those principles are pertinent to all of agriculture. That is, behavioral finance - the influence of psychology and emotion as it pertains to business and/or marketing decisions (we’re not always rational).
Key Takeaway: Part of that discussion included Vaclavik’s list of things NOT to do. One of them included NOT buying into the thought USDA manipulates the market via its reports. He explained:
USDA says that the corn yield is [X] and that's because they're trying to keep the prices down…We get more comments about this topic…than anything. It's the government's out to screw us. The USDA is out to screw us, everybody's out to screw us…It's not something everybody wants to hear but there is nobody that's out to get you.
Vaclavik also emphasized guarding against spending too much time on, or giving too much credence to, social media: “Most of it's poison: I mean you go and you scroll through Twitter and everything is sensationalized, everybody's got some smartass comment…to support their opinion of the marketplace.” (see Less Matrix, More Moneyball)
All that brings us to Vaclavik’s most important precept of all: “This is you versus you” (emphasis mine). The phrase is timely going into the new year; it serves as a primer to review similar principles outlined in previous columns.
The Most Important Thing: The discussion included a snippet from Morgan Housel’s book, The Psychology of Money. He explains that when it comes to money we often tell ourselves things that might not be true (e.g. USDA is out to get us). Therefore, we become prone to what Housel terms, “appealing fictions”. And those ultimately become traps. You versus you.
Where’s Your Focus?: My favorite Carl Richard’s (Behavior Gap) sketch is a simple Venn diagram. The left circle is labeled, “Things that matter”; the right one titled, “Things you can control.” The intersection is deliberately small; in that space we find instruction from Richards: “What you should focus on.” That’s a great reminder for all of us – individually and collectively – both personally and professionally. You versus you.
Less Drama, More Factfulness: As Vaclavik highlights in his discussion, there’s an enduring desire to stoke fear and drama around markets and/or the business. That happens too often in social media (and the coffee shop).
All this calls to mind the principles surrounding “I think” versus “I know”. To that end, the authors of Factfulness (c. 2018) encourage us to make assertions based on evidence – not just because your buddy at the coffee shop said so:
“Factfulness…Start to practice it…replace your overdramatic worldview with a worldview based on facts…You will make better decisions, stay alert to real dangers and possibilities, and avoid being constantly stressed about the wrong things.”
You versus you.
The Cattle Producer in 2043: Almost a year ago, I followed up a question from a reader who asked, “What does the cattle producer in 2043 look like?” Much of the answer is contingent on collective psychology. As part of that discussion, I subsequently highlighted Bob Ernst’s story about the ’87 world rowing championships in Copenhagen. Ernst, U.S. rowing coach, explains the race had the U.S. team in the outermost and windiest lane; and that day was particularly bad with the Dutch team stopping earlier in the day mid-race because of the conditions. But the U.S. team had a great day! They didn’t care about the conditions. Instead, they tasked themselves with only what they could control – what happens inside the boat. Ernst notes, “the girls said they never gave the wind and the conditions a thought. All they were thinking about was Betsy, the coxswain, saying, ‘Okay, we’re at a thousand meters and we’ve got three seats on the cows’ (a reference to the Soviets).” You versus you.
Out There v In Here: Ryan Holiday, in his book, The Obstacle Is The Way, ultimately wraps up all these principles this way:
Focusing exclusively on what is in our power magnifies and enhances our power. But every ounce of energy directed at things we can’t actually influence is wasted – self-indulgent and self-destructive. So much power – ours, and other people’s – is frittered away in this manner.
Alternatively, Jon Gordon, speaking at the 2018 EntreLeadership Conference, explains it this way:
We don’t create our world outside in. Outside’s the noise, the expectations, all the negativity and even circumstances. We create our world inside out: from our belief, our optimism, our love, our joy, our purpose, and our spirit. And when you realize the outside has no power over you, that you create from the inside – that’s where the power is created.
Back to the top. The you-versus-USDA perspective inherently makes success contingent on something out there. (And the list of potential opponents never ends; NCBA or LRP or TSN or Checkoff or EIDs or imports or…). It’s a shaky premise that invariably leads to defeatism. Rather, the better approach views success as being dictated by what happens in here: you versus you.
Nevil Speer is an independent consultant based in Bowling Green, KY. The views and opinions expressed herein do not reflect, nor are associated with in any manner, any client or business relationship. He can be reached at nevil.speer@turkeytrack.biz.
