Yield

Corn Maverick: Cracking the Mystery of 60-Inch Rows

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 21:21:50 GMT

Terra incognita. When Bob Recker turned off every other row on his no-till planter, doubled the plant population, and punched seed into Iowa soil, he crossed into the uncharted territory of 60” row corn. Success or failure, Recker was about to bathe his corn—and weeds—in sunlight, and attempt to maintain yield with only half the growing space.

In 2017, Recker kicked open the door on 60” row corn, and exposed a ton of questions on sunlight capture, weed suppression, cover crops, and much more. According to Recker’s triune agricultural gospel, or triple bottom line, every farmer must make money, grow food and take care of the soil—and he believes 60” row corn could become an avenue toward improving all three facets on the right operation, without trimming yield.

A Jug of Sunshine

Recker’s question: If every other row is a zero yield, can a corn field gobble enough sunshine to reach equivalent yield, as compared with standard 30” rows? The query is typically rendered by most growers as a snowflake-in-hell proposition—i.e., it ain’t happening.

However, Recker pays little mind to the confines of consensus. A retired John Deere engineer, Recker has fueled a post-machinery career as an independent researcher with an increasingly large sustainable bone. Owner and founder of Cedar Valley Innovation in Waterloo, Iowa, Recker is intensely focused on improving farming’s triple bottom line—money, food and soil: “I retired in 2008, knowing that I wanted to give something back to the American farmer for feeding me for so many years. I started studying and became more interested in smaller data sets, even down to the yield of a single corn plant.”

Recker’s initial approach to 60” rows was a combination of heavy experimentation with a mix of configurations, and a heavy focus on photosynthesis and the edge effect. In a field of corn, the outside row, along with the on-deck row, both see significant yield benefits from sunlight. However, go inside beyond those two rows, and the shaded plants generally revert to broad acre yields.

“Randy Dowdy is correct: You can’t buy a jug of sunshine,” Recker explains, “but you can still leverage corn’s ability to use sunshine because it is universally available.”

Experimenting with narrow corn strips, Recker tried 12-, 8-, 6-, 4-, and 2-row corn, particularly noting the promise of 4-row corn: “Maybe God meant for corn to be grown 4 rows wide on 30” rows, with a skipped row on either side.”

“Whatever the configuration, we all know the edges always yield so well. Even discounting the fanciness on variety, fertility and population, the edge rows always yield big. I’m trying to figure out how to harvest sunlight and that’s where the 60” rows came from. I was challenged by a friend to try wide rows, and it seemed crazy, but I was willing to try and find out what would happen.”

Nature Abhors a Vacuum

Prior to 2017, Recker tried alternate 20” and 40” rows, noting a slight yield increase. In 2017, he planted eight varieties on 16 half-mile rows, each separated by 60” (almost five acres total), on commercial corn production land in Iowa. Accounting for the adjoining 30” corn planted at a 34,000 population, Recker doubled all the 60” corn to a 68,000 in-row population to accomplish the same field population.

“American farmers have scar tissue from people promoting things that don’t work, so I wanted to avoid claiming a yield benefit or drag due to a different population. I kept the elements simple, treating one variable at a time. My corn got all the same treatments as the adjoining commercial corn and we planted the same day. My commercial grower/collaborator is excellent and highly vigilant in weed control, and that made a big difference.”

Recker’s 2017 60” corn, with half the ground space empty, produced a surprising result—statistically equivalent in yield to the rest of the field. “It started gaining interest from farmers because it was so easy to do, required no equipment changes and provided easy equipment access to the corn,” Recker describes.

Yet, as corn surges on sunshine, weeds thrive on solar power all the more: Nature abhors a vacuum. “Yes, you’re giving weeds a great chance to get established in the open space,” Recker says. “You must have a residue base already in place or a good weed control strategy.”

For a grower solely focused on growing corn, Recker recommends adherence to 30” rows, but for someone interested in taking advantage of the open row space, Recker urges consideration of cover crops, companion crops or grazing potential. “No BS. Do 30” if you only want corn, and don’t do 60” without something in between the rows. Done right, you can get much healthier crop dividends, and a grazing opportunity may be the biggest bonus.”

In 2018, Recker recorded 30 growers trialing 60” corn across nine states. He obtained results from seven plots without cover crops, and five plots utilizing cover crops. All told, the 12 plots showed an overall yield decrease of 5%, with a plus/minus of 10%, according to Recker. “If you’re enthusiastic about cover crops or grazing, the results are very interesting. Or if you think this could be fine-tuned and done better, it also grabs your attention.”

“I’m not expanding my 60” row research. I’m just encouraging people to do their own experiments and urging them to adapt and adopt this to fit their system, rather than me tell them how to farm. It could be a big deal for cover guys on the right farm. I’m convinced sustainable practices are the right thing, but they must be profitable and not a logistics nightmare.”

Jack Boyer

Practical Farmers of Iowa ( PFI ) seized on Recker’s proposition in 2018, conducting trials on four farms to see if yields would keep pace with conventional 30” rows, and determine if 60” rows could reap significant biomass growth from interseeded cover crops. Results of the trial were mixed on yield. At two locations, farmers saw equal yields between 30” and 60” rows; at two other locations, farmers observed yield declines. Most of the 60” ground showed heavy cover crop growth, but weed control was a challenge, and possibly contributed to lower yields.

(See here for a pdf download of the PFI study.)

Tama County producer Jack Boyer participated in the PFI study, and has also worked with Recker on multiple research projects. Boyer grows corn, seed corn and soybeans, and is 100% no till: “I’ve been working on 30” rows, trying to get cover crops planted earlier, like at sidedress in June. But 60” rows caught my eye because they allow a diverse crop mix and plenty of sunshine.”

As part of the PFI corn study, Boyer planted four segregated strips of 12 30” rows and four strips of 6 60” rows (eight strips covered roughly 3 acres). The overall results were equivalent, with the 60” rows (205 bpa) outperforming the 30” rows (200 bpa) by 5 bu.

In between the 60” rows, Boyer planted cow peas (warm season species), anticipating fast movement and weed suppression, but the weather dipped and the peas sat tight. In addition, the pea presence (legume) ensured Boyer couldn’t use a herbicide without killing the cover—complicating his management. When waterhemp emerged, Boyer pulled the handbrake, came back with a herbicide, killed the covers, and replanted with a multi-species mix after burndown, finally wrangling a degree of good weed control.

“The weeds love sunshine, too, and unchecked, they’ll proliferate with a vengeance. You have to pick a cover crop combination that comes up quickly and spreads quickly to make sure weed seed can’t get started,” Boyer says.

“Overall, the 60” covers grew 10 times the aboveground biomass of the 30”, and the amount of nitrogen captured by the 60” was 10 times that of the 30”. My advice to other growers is to stay with 30”, unless you are really interested in grazing cattle after harvest or improving soil health,” Boyer adds.

In 2019, Boyer has an 10-acre plot of replicated 30” and 60” corn, and has utilized the weed lessons from 2018. “I applied a half-rate of chemicals with a short half-life so the covers wouldn’t be bothered, and later went in with a no-residual cleanup herbicide, planted covers, and got decent weed control.”

Boyer’s consistent plot research has revealed data which may move him away from future 60” study. A mix of annual ryegrass, cow peas and rape seed has performed well under a 30” canopy, according to Boyer. “As individual covers, they didn’t work, but together they appear to have some kind of synergy, and they may be an ideal cover situation for 30” rows. All I’m doing is experimenting and learning. I don’t have cattle so extra biomass is not important to me. Again, if you’ve got cattle, grazing covers could be a serious reason to look into 60”.”

Loran Steinlage

On 750 acres of Fayette County ground, Loran Steinlage perpetually breaks the mold, and has moved his operation toward regenerative practices, on a trajectory from interseeding to companion cropping to relay cropping, with an eye on space for livestock despite a lack of pasture ground. Steinlage, explains Recker, is a “real deal” farmer and doesn’t adhere to convention: “Loran is willing to try stuff and always has something unique going on. You’re not going to find anyone exactly like him and he’ll always tell it like it is.”

In 2017, Steinlage planted a plot with alternating corn rows of 30” and 60”, with cover crops in between. He noted standard cover crop growth in the 30”, but lush, knee-deep biomass in the 60”. “It’s pretty clear to me that if you’ve got livestock, 60” is the perfect opportunity to get a post-harvest grazing option very quick. We can maintain yield from what we’ve seen, and get good tonnage for livestock the very day we harvest,” he says.

Steinlage is all no till and 100% interseeded on corn acreage. Once again, in 2019, Steinlage is testing a 60” plot. “I do something different each year and I’ll push even with minimal success. Right now, we’ve seen phenomenal no till organic corn on corn with almost zero purchased inputs,” he describes. “I hope to bring livestock back on the farm, but minimizing inputs is my focus at present.”

“I try to set up everything for relay cropping in the fall, but Mother Nature unfolds her hand in the spring, and we really don’t know our rotation sometimes until June 1.”

Steve Walder

Steve Walder grows a mix of conventional and organic crops in Vermilion County, Ill., in addition to fulltime work as an engineering manager at RhinoAg . Walder has consistent giant ragweed control issues in organic corn. “I heard about 60” rows and controlling these weeds was my initial thought because I knew I’d be able to get between the rows much easier and have 50% fewer rows with weeds. Secondarily, cover benefits were a factor that would help keep organic inspectors satisfied and build soil health and nutrient levels, which are particularly important in organic crops.”

Walder planted 12 acres of 60” organic corn in 2018, and noted a 20% reduction in yield. “Normally I’m at 34,000-36,000 planting population, but part of the yield problem was my populations were off because my planter can’t go up high enough to accommodate a doubling. In the past I have seen similar yield loss on these acres from the giant ragweed pressure.”

In 2019, Walder tried 5 acres of 60” plots, adjusting planting population to 25,500 on 30” and 51,000 on 60”. “This year after harvest I’ll know better if my yield comes close to the 5% percent average drop that others have seen.”

Walder intends to try 60” rows again in 2020: “It takes multiple growing seasons to get a real idea. There are so many variables with weather and you can’t rely on just a couple of years of data. Long term, with the right hybrids and optimal population, and the right cover crops, that 5% yield drag may disappear. This takes time and years of research to get it right.”

Easy to Kill

Beyond 60” rows, Recker urges growers to constantly tinker and experiment on a small percentage of a given operation. For example, he advocates taking a 4% chunk (40 acres) of a 1,000-acre farm and trying unique management. Further, within the 40 acres, he recommends using 4 acres for any outside-the-box growing practice—even if deemed bizarre by conventional agriculture. “Understanding comes from failure. Do the research on a small piece of ground, and then ask the right questions. What does it do for income? What does it do for the total output of the farm? What does it do for the soil?”

Recker isn’t wed to 60” rows—he’s wed to sunlight harvest. “If we find a cover crop or companion combination along with a yield increase, people will adopt any configuration. I’m not there yet. I don’t know what configuration is ideal, but maybe it’s 30”-60” or something else. I’ve done some crazy stuff that usually doesn’t work, but I’m not afraid to go find answers. I’m convinced that in the near future, the yield winners across the country are going to be using different row configurations.”

“Somewhere out there is a soil scientist or agronomist, that is just like me, wanting to do more and leverage their abilities into this,” he continues. “My network of farmers and researchers is often the crazy bunch because they are willing to listen and think about what might be possible.”

As automation and driverless technology increase across agriculture, Recker says the importance of row configurations will become prominent. Smaller equipment, he believes, may be a catalyst. “Things are going to change; they always do,” he adds. “Autonomous vehicles will be the economic, agronomic and sociological winners. The vineyard industry already uses automated equipment to get up and down the rows, and is already close to 60” spacing. That tells me something about what may happen with row crops.”

Recker never sugarcoats his findings, welcomes criticism from all corners, and coats his reflections with a healthy dose of self-deprecation, but the maverick researcher has little patience for the incurious: “What have you got to lose? Do something no one else is trying and pay attention to the details. Don’t listen to the crowd because an idea is like a young plant just sprouting—it’s very easy to kill.”

For more, see:

Descent Into Hell: Farmer Escapes Corn Tomb Death

Against All Odds: Farmer Survives Epic Ordeal

Killing Hogzilla: Hunting a Monster Wild Pig

Breaking Bad: Chasing the Wildest Con Artist in Farming History

Blood And Dirt: A Farmer’s 30-Year Fight With The Feds

American Farmer Snuffed Out Saddam Hussein

Future Shock: Farmers Exposed By US-China Long Game

Wild Pig Wars: Controversy Over Hunting, Trapping in Missouri

Agriculture’s Darkest Fraud Hidden Under Dirt and Lies

In the Blood: Hunting Deer Antlers with a Legendary Shed Whisperer

A Snapshot of USDA's Surprising January Report in 10 Charts

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 20:36:13 GMT

USDA’s final crop production report for the 2023 year shocked the market. Not only did the U.S. grow a record corn crop, but USDA also increased its soybean yield estimate for 2023. Cotton yields, however, plummeted in 2023 with cotton production dropping to the lowest in a decade.

With larger-than-expected yield revisions to both corn and soybeans, it leaves one burning question: Which states grew such big yields? USDA-NASS breaks down the numbers in a series of charts and maps to help show which areas saw the biggest yield and production changes.

USDA raised the national corn yield to 177. 3 bu. per acre in the January report, which is a new national record yield. It’s also a big jump from November, when USDA had the national yield penciled at 174.9 bu. per acre. When you look how yields changed year-over-year, you can see the Plains and the Mid-South saw big yield improvements from the 2022 growing season.

(Farm Journal)

With a new record national yield in 2023, the trendline chart shows just how much yields have improved over time.

(Farm Journal)

With a new national record yield, USDA also shows corn production hit a record high in 2023, at 15.3 billion bushels.

(Farm Journal)

USDA also surprised traders with the increase in the soybean yield estimate. USDA raised it’s soybean yield forecast for the 2023 crop to 50.6 bu per acre, which was up from the 49.9 bu. per acre forecast in November.

(Farm Journal)

While the 2023 yield of 50.6 bu. per acre isn’t a record yield, it’s still higher than 2022’s final yield of 49.6 bu. per acre.

(Farm Journal)

USDA pegs 2023 soybean production at 4.16 billion bushels. That’s lower than what growers produced in 2022.

(Farm Journal)

Drought and prolonged heat really took a toll on cotton yields across the U.S. this year. Texas saw the biggest yield drop year-over-year, followed by Florida and California.

(Farm Journal)

With a projected cotton yield of 845 pounds per acre, USDA’s 2023 cotton yield estimate is a sharp drop from the 953 pounds per acre the U.S. saw in 2022. The 2023 final cotton yield figure from USDA is also higher than 2021.

(Farm Journal)

With such a sharp drop in yield, as well as abandoned acres in West Texas, U.S. cotton production fell to the lowest in a decade this year.

(Farm Journal)

Better Yields and Improved Crop Prices Propel Ag Economists' Outlooks for 2024

Wed, 22 Nov 2023 20:26:11 GMT

After two months of a waning outlook on the ag economy, economists’ views took a turn in the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a survey of nearly 70 ag economists from across the country.

“The biggest takeaway I see out of the Monthly Monitor this month is we’re seeing a lot more positives than we’ve seen for the last couple of months,” says Scott Brown, the interim director for the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri, who also helps author the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor.

The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is conducted by the University of Missouri and Farm Journal each month, as it’s a way to gauge not only the state of the ag economy but also explore the impacts of policy and trade. Brown says as commodity prices have seen some momentum, outlooks among economists are also shifting more positively for 2024.

“I think when you look at where we are in terms of our estimates for crop prices, and we’re talking about crop prices for harvest next fall at this point, we saw a number of more positive responses, maybe the most positivity since we started our estimates for 2024/2025. As both corn and soybeans continue to move higher, there’s more positive news this month,” Brown adds.

Spike in 2024 Net Farm Income Forecasts

(Farm Journal)

That positivity also boosted net farm income estimates. The November Monthly Monitor asked ag economists to provide their outlook for net farm income in 2024. The survey found ag economists now expect a big spike in net farm income forecasts for the new year.

“Farm income estimates were raised almost $5 billion for 2024, relative to what they would have said in October,” Brown says. “And I think that just resonates as you look at higher estimates of corn prices and higher estimates of soybean prices, things just look a little better than where we were a couple of months ago.”

(Farm Journal)

What’s driving improved outlooks in the farm economy? Economists say commodity prices, including improved yields and harvest picture for some commodities.

Another major factor is South America. When asked what factors will impact crop prices in the next six months, economists say:

South American crop production (including weather impacts on planted acres) and related export sales.
Global dynamics in general, as well as conditions and production in key regions like the Black Sea and China.
U.S. export demand strength and growing crop supplies.
Final U.S. crop size and weather-related impacts.

Weather Worries in South America

The latest USDA report pegged Brazil’s corn production at 129 million metric tons, but according to the Monthly Monitor, that estimate may be too optimistic.

“Our survey of the economist would have suggested 126.5 mmt right now,” Brown says. We did have some answering very near that 129 mmt and others saying 125 mmt. It’s a combination of weather as well as economics, not all that great. That is leading to some lower estimates.”

When asked what’s driving changes in the crop forecasts for Brazil and Argentina? Economists say it’s all about weather, the impacts of El Nino and delayed planting that could eat into the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil. Economists also say Brazil could be looking at fewer soybean acres.

“Uncertain, volatile weather conditions - either too wet or too dry as Brazil transitions from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns,” says one economist when asked what are the factors driving the change in estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop. “Plus, delayed plantings of the 2024 Brazilian Soybean crop with substantial replantings required is hurting production potential.”

Bullish Views on Cattle Continue

While views on crop prices turned more positive in the latest Monthly Monitor, economists are still bullish longer-term on cattle.

“I think folks are more positive still on the cattle side of the equation, despite what’s been the last few weeks of some lower cattle prices,” Brown says. “We are talking about an industry that continues to talk about record or near record, and perhaps in early 2024, we get back to record prices yet again.”

(Farm Journal)

The outlook for pork prices, as well as dairy, continued to see some pressure, but overall, the factors economists think will impact livestock prices over the next six months include:

Weaker demand domestically and globally.
Global economic health, including slowdown/recession in some geographies.

Health of the Farm Economy by Geography

This month’s survey also asked ag economists to rank the health of the farm economy by geography. The strongest region of the country, according to economists survey, is the Midwest.

“I think we ended up with especially better corn yields than anybody would have thought. Maybe soybean yields are not even as bad as some would have suggested. And then again, cattle still being very positive there, Brown says.

(Farm Journal)

According to economists surveyed, there were a multitude of factors that played into how they ranked each geography, including:

Drought and weather
Government policy impacts upon state and metropolitan economic health.
Commodity /crop mix

“Certainly, crop and livestock mix is important,” says one economist in the anonymous survey. “While corn prices are lower the combination of yields and prices were likely profitable for many. But lower prices have come on the heels of very high prices in the last couple of years. Hog and dairy returns are dragging down financial health in the sector regionally. Cattle prices are boosting overall returns in the Plains. But drought has certainly hurt ranchers, including water in the West.

Impact of Interest Rates (Both Positive and Negative)

Economists are still concerned about how interest rates could negatively impact agriculture over the next 12 months, but for the first time, economists now view it as a possible positive over the next year.

When asked, “What do you view as the most negative aspect regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture?”, the Monthly Monitor shows:

High interest rates, market volatility and a shortage of working capital create a challenging economic climate.
Production challenges range from weather conditions to commodity prices and policy support.
A need for investment into increasing domestic and demand for U.S. products.

When followed up with, what do you view as the most positive aspect regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture, economists say:

Economic resiliency of the farm operator, including strong financial positions for some operators and farm income forecasts remaining above the long-term average. Some optimism for stabilizing interest rates.
Promising new demand opportunities, including the expansion of biofuel uses, as well as continued consumer demand.
Improvements in technology and the possibility of better production in 2024.

“The news that we seem to be getting right now is, although inflation is still a problem, maybe less so than we would have thought. So perhaps we’re getting near the end of interest rate increases, I even see some out there suggesting we could get lower interest rates as we get into 2024,” Brown says.

Outlook for Crop Mix in 2024

Economists were also asked to shift their focus to 2024. Economists say the most important factors that could affect 2024 crop plantings/acres in the U.S. are:

Spring 2024 weather conditions and drought concerns.
Corn-soybean price ratio affecting decisions, as well as planting prospects for corn/soybeans/cotton and wheat profitability.
Changes in output prices, higher input costs, crop insurance price levels and 2024 futures prices affecting planting decisions.
South American crop production and demand (domestically and globally) impacting prices.

The Midwest is Set to Bake Under High Heat, Ag Meteorologists Now Worry About Severe Crop Damage

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 19:52:44 GMT

Portions of the Midwest could see the most challenging weather yet this year, and according to leading ag meteorologists, it’s creating more concerns for crop conditions. With heat forecast to top 100 degrees, along with little rain in this week’s forecast, crop conditions could deteriorate and the biggest risk in the western Corn Belt.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the stubborn high heat that’s been in the south and southwest will push its way into the Midwest by mid-week. The growing season has been far from perfect, but the overall crop condition ratings have seen steady improvements in July. Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed 55% of the U.S. corn crop and 50% of U.S. soybeans are covered in drought , an improvement from the 70% of corn and 63% of soybeans considered to be in drought the last week of June.

“It’s been a year full of challenges, no doubt about it,” says Rippey. “To this point, our biggest issues have been with the dryness that peaked in late June, and since then, we’ve seen considerable relief in some areas. But now for the first time, we’re combining that with the highest temperatures of the season to date.”

(Farm Journal)

A map from NOAA shows areas of the country in for the most extreme conditions compared to normal. The areas of the Midwest in yellow will see temps 7 to 10 degrees above normal.

“We could see widespread temperatures 100 degrees or higher throughout the western Corn Belt, extending eastward into the Mississippi Valley, and so the areas like Missouri where we really haven’t seen much recovery, if any, this heat on top of the dryness is coming in terrible time. We have corn and soybeans that are in the reproductive to filling stage, which it’s absolutely critical to keep temperatures and keep the moisture coming in during this time. We have neither in the driest areas right now,” says Rippey.

Western and Central Corn Belt Could Be Hit the Hardest

Rippey says the current forecasts indicate the extreme heat won’t initially hit the eastern Corn Belt. He says those areas will see temperatures in the mid-90s, but the western Corn Belt is bracing for consecutive days of temperatures above 100 degrees.

“You’ve got to really focus on that southwestern Corn Belt area as the biggest concern, because if you look at Missouri, and parts of neighboring states, we’ve got much deeper problems than this week’s heat; we have the moisture deficiency, and we have the drought issues that go back all the way into early spring,” he says. “And so where we have those subsoil and topsoil moisture shortages in the southwestern Corn Belt, overlaying that with 100 degree heat this week, that is going to be another blow for corn and soybeans in those areas.”

Heading into this week's Midwest heat wave, I wanted to post the current accumulated stress degree day map.

Calculated by adding degrees above 86°F for each day.
Example: if today is 95°F, 9 SDDs are accumulated

>140 SDDs could result in corn yield loss

Data: PRISM April 1 pic.twitter.com/ZdgxRfOEsH
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) July 24, 2023

With the heat that’s been parked in Texas and across the Southwest this month, Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, explains the duration of the heat is the biggest question. While the forecasts indicate the heat will last through the weekend, some weather models point to high temperatures returning next week.

“We’re going to be talking about temperatures that are going to be in the mid- to upper-90s as far north as Minnesota and the Dakotas, and then possibly, there’s going to be some pockets in Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, that are going to be over 100 degrees Fahrenheit,” says Snodgrass. “And so we always worry it’s going to last. Is this going to be a two-to-three-day event? Or is there going to be a 10-day event or a 30-day event?”

Hot with a Chance of Isolated Storms

He says the current thinking is the heat starts on Wednesday and then lasts through the weekend. There are some forecasts pointing to 105 degree heat in Iowa.

“But the question we have is, there’s humidity in this pattern. So, will there be storms that blow up in the middle of this and bring some cooler weather? That’s a possibility,” he says. “So, I would call it hot, hot with a lot of isolated storm activity. There’s going to be winners out of this, and there’s going to be a larger area that’s going to see some crop damage.”

Rippey points out there are areas that have seen more than adequate rain this summer, including Oklahoma.

“It’s incredible when you look at the last three months,” says Rippey. “We have seen upwards of 20 inches of rain in parts of Oklahoma, and even into southwestern Kansas. That is a year’s worth of rainfall in three months. And it’s also areas that were in some of the highest levels of drought just three months ago, at the end of the winter wheat season. So big turnaround for those folks.”

He says when you travel north and east of those areas, like into Missouri and Nebraska and even into Minnesota, that’s where the rains have been absent.

“We have seen a more recent trend toward drier weather in parts of the Upper Midwest. Minnesota really comes to mind as an area really short on rainfall the last several weeks,” says Rippey. “Even there, we’re going to see temperatures creeping up into the 90s to near 100 this week. The crops are a little bit later in that part of the world, as you move into the northern Corn Belt, which means we’re really at a critical time right now in terms of reproductive corn and blooming soybeans. If it turns cooler and wetter, soybeans still have a chance, but corn gets one chance to move through. So it’s really bad timing for upper Midwestern crops due to the heat this week, and the dryness that’s been developing the last several weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says the current forecast indicates the central Midwest and into the South and Southwest will miss out on the chance for rainfall.

“Even though the Midwest will see sporadic showers, amounts will generally not be enough to keep up with high temperatures and peak crop-moisture demand. This could lead to increased stress on corn and soybeans, especially in hotter and more significantly drought-affected areas of the western Corn Belt,” Rippey says.

(Farm Journal)

Snodgrass says Climate Prediction Center (CPC) August through October forecast indicates the ridge, which is causing the high heat to enter the Midwest this week, gets shoved back West in August, which will keep the Midwest much cooler in August. CPC also thinks El Nino takes over and it turns wet, but Snodgrass says he’s not sold on that forecast, as all the weather models still have conflicting forecasts.

“I feel like we’ve been punched in the mouth twice. And if there’s a third punch, maybe it’s, you know, longer duration into early August, and I think we’re going to see some possible significant yield loss. But if storms cascade over the top of it, and the ridge goes back to Arizona, then we will be talking about busting bins with yield,” Snodgrass adds.

Ag Economists Turn More Positive Longer-Term On the Farm Economy

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:01:20 GMT

The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows weather extremes and wild swings in the commodity markets are the two biggest factors impacting short-term outlooks, but the economists surveyed expressed a more favorable view longer-term. The latest survey also shows the biggest wildcard for agriculture over the next year could be geopolitical risks tied to China and the war in Ukraine.

This is the second survey of the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal. The first-of-its-kind survey collects insights from ag economists across the U.S. Nearly 60 economists are asked each month to provide their forecasts and views. They represent a wide geography with expertise in grains, livestock and policy.

This month’s survey showed several key changes from June. Economists say they believe USDA’s current corn and soybean yield projections are still too high, and they anticipate a drop in forecasted corn and soybean prices. The economists in the July survey also predict cattle and hog prices could continue to climb higher this year.

“To me, the biggest thing that sticks out in the July survey is the more positive view 12 months into the future relative to where we were in June,” says Scott Brown, University of Missouri agricultural economist who helps author the survey each month. “In the very short run, the economists are a little less positive than where they were in June. I think that has a lot to do with the weather and general market moves we’ve seen over the last few weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

The longer-term optimism revealed in the survey is despite economists’ expectations for two consecutive years of declining net farm income, falling short of the record set in 2022. The July Monthly Monitor forecasts net farm income to fall to $132.8 billion in 2023, which is below the $134.7 billion in the June survey and USDA’s current net farm income estimate of $136.9 billion. That’s still a big drop from 2022, when USDA says net farm income reached $162.7 billion.

This month’s survey also tried to peel back the layers of what commodities might be aiding the more positive long-term outlook versus weighing on the overall health of the ag economy in the short-term.

“On the crop side, it’s positive to very positive,” Brown says. “There are a few in the negative category, but a majority of economists responded the crops side of the equation looks positive. Whereas, on the livestock side, we have more negatives than we have positives.”

Economists say there are several positive developments that could shape U.S. agriculture, such as continued productivity and efficiency gains; a healthy farm economy and balance sheets; projected shifts in interest rates; new and expanded opportunities for renewable fuels; and the strength of the U.S. cattle market and meat exports as a whole. Geopolitical issues could also impact global crop production and, in turn, bring some demand back to the U.S.

Cuts to Projected U.S. Crop Yields

The survey was sent to ag economists the day after USDA released its most recent yield forecast in the July WASDE report. In what was called a rare move early in the growing season, USDA cut its corn yield forecast by 2.2% to 177.5 bu. per acre, down from 181.5 bu. per acre in the June report. The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is nearly 3 bu. per acre lower than USDA, with the group of ag economists projecting a yield of 174.9 bu. per acre.

“For me, the interesting piece of this story is there’s a lot of variability in the responses from those being surveyed, which highlights how varied the weather has been as you move around the country,” Brown says. “We had yield estimates slightly below 170 bu. per acre on the low end and some above 180 bu. per acre on the high end.”

(Farm Journal)

Brown says the soybean estimate also came in lower than both USDA’s July WASDE report and the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey. USDA estimates soybean yield at 52 bu. per acre, and the average ag economists’ estimate is 50.6 bu. per acre, a 0.5 bu. cut from the June survey.

“There was a little less variability from top to bottom on those yields, but when you look at prices, even with what was a lower corn yield, their estimate of 2023/2024 corn prices went from $4.99 in June to $4.80 in the July survey,” Brown says.

(Farm Journal)

What Economists are Watching the Next Six Months for Crop Prices

When asked what factors will impact crop prices in the next six months, economists said:

Final yields
Export demand and competition
Weather domestically and abroad
Geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and China, including developments that impact ag exports in Ukraine/Russia

“I think a couple of things stick out beyond the weather discussion, and one is export demand as well as global competition, such as what’s going to happen with South America in terms of competing with U.S. corn and soybean markets.

“The economists certainly continue to talk about the geopolitical risk in the Black Sea and China, in particular, and what that means for our ability to export corn and soybeans as we look ahead,” Brown says. “Those are really the two big ones that came out of this survey.”

What Livestock Economists Are Watching the Next 6 Months for Livestock

Ag economists think the following factors will impact prices the next six months:

Changes in feed costs and impact of corn prices
Rising milk prices
Consumer meat demand and influences from macroeconomic factors, both domestically and abroad
Placements of cattle on feed

Brown says while the majority of economists are concerned about feed costs and the impact on livestock producers, the second-biggest concern revealed in the survey is demand. Economists pointed to both domestic and international demand as possible problem areas.

“2021 and 2022 were extremely positive from a demand standpoint, and we seem to be backing up a little bit in 2023,” Brown says.

Economists More Bullish on Cattle and Hogs

The July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows economists are more positive when asked about cattle and hog prices, but they have a more negative view on dairy, which they consider the biggest weight in the livestock sector.

“When you look at where pork prices have gone over the last month, it’s gotten more positive. Now, I don’t want to suggest we’re back in black ink, but we have seen recovery in things like the pork cutout value,” Brown says. “The economists continue to worry about how the general economy will affect livestock going forward, but overall, it seems we’re seeing a more positive view from the livestock perspective in this month’s survey.”

(Farm Journal)

Based on the July monitor, economists expect average milk prices to fall back to 2021 levels, but production costs will continue to be higher in 2023 versus 2021.

“No. 1, the economists continue to worry about feed costs,” Brown says. “We continue to see fairly high feed costs affecting profitability. So even in the case of beef cattle, where we’re talking record cattle prices, we’re not talking record profitability because of the feed cost side.”

(Farm Journal)

Longer-Term Look at the Health of Agriculture

Over the next 12 months, there are several things that could shape the health of the ag economy, according to the July survey:

Crop prices and production costs, including inputs, rental rates, land values and supply chain disruptions
Subsequent impact on producer margins and the protein sector from rising interest rates and inflationary pressure
Weather considerations, including drought conditions in the short run and yield impacts in longer run
Geopolitical tensions and competitiveness of U.S. ag exports
Changes in consumer demand domestically and abroad, new markets for agricultural products, including biofuels

“One thing that came pretty strongly out of the survey is the continued increases in productivity in agriculture, which makes us more efficient,” Brown says. “The farm economy is generally healthy, and when you look at balance sheets, they are still really, really strong in many cases. That’s despite a lot of the issues we’ve talked about.”

In the July survey, economists voiced more concerns about interest rates and the impact on operating loans. One economist also mentioned the industry might be underestimating the negative impact Proposition 12 could have on the entire livestock industry.

The Turbulent Relationship Between the U.S. and China

While none of the ag economists surveyed think the U.S. will enter into a trade war with China in 2023, economists continue to remain cautious about China, which could have a direct impact on U.S. agriculture.

When asked to list the top factors shaping trade relations between the U.S. and China, economists said:

POTUS and political polarization in the U.S.
Non‐agricultural geopolitical tensions, including national security concerns, support of Taiwan and limits on technological production
Changes in China’s economic growth, including population and demographics
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s relationship with China
Quality, price and availability of U.S. products compared with global competitors

Potential Events/Factors Not Getting Enough Attention Today

The July survey also asked economists to outline any factors or events that currently aren’t receiving enough attention but could shape agriculture over the next 12 months. One economist brought up impacts of geopolitical risks and fallout from the war in Ukraine, but also a potential war between the U.S. and China.

Other potential events that could cause a major shakeup in agriculture include:

Weather events, domestically and abroad, warranting a broader conversation on climate
Potential for a significant recession in China
Focus on renewable diesel obscuring importance of RFS in overall biofuel use
Workforce concerns for producing, processing and transporting agricultural products domestically and abroad
Declining EU pork production and commerce implications of Proposition 12
Strikes at shipping ports in Vancouver and potential for upward pressure on potash prices with reduced production capacity at Nutrien mines in Saskatchewan

Previous Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor Coverage

Most Ag Economists Think It’s Unlikely the 2023 Farm Bill Will Be Written in 2023

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

Game Changer for Soybeans? USDA Ignites Fireworks in the Markets With Two Major Acreage Surprises

Sat, 01 Jul 2023 01:33:09 GMT

USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report , including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations. The markets had a lot of news to digest on Friday between the report news and the rain and derecho damage across the Corn Belt , but analysts called Friday’s reports a “game changer” for soybeans.

According to USDA, farmers made a big cut to their intended soybean acreage. USDA Jun acreage report shows farmers planted 83.5 million acres of soybeans, a large reduction from the the 87.51-million-acre intention in March. This year’s planted acreage for soybeans is 5% below last year.

The other big surprise came in corn. USDA says farmers planted 94.1 million acres of corn this year, which is up from the 91.9 million acres reported in the 2023 Prospective Plantings report in March. The 94.1 million acres planted is also 6% higher than what farmers planted in 2022.

Other acreage highlights include:

Cotton Acres: 11.1 million, down from 11.3 million reported in USDA’s March planting intentions survey, a 19% reduction from 2022
Wheat Acres: 49.6 million acres, slightly lower than the 49.9 million acres in March, a 9% increase from last year

(Farm Journal)

A Major Market Game Changer

The biggest surprise was in soybeans, with analysts saying this could change the course for soybean prices.

“It’s an absolute game changer in regard to the soybean balance sheets,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “What it means it gives you very, very little room for error in regard to yield and production given this lower acreage number. And on the flip side, we saw a higher corn acreage number that went up to 94.1 from 92, even in March. So it was it was a big divergence in the markets sell off in corn on a higher acreage number and a sharp rally in soybeans on a drastically lower acreage number.”

Mark Gold of StoneX Group says this year proves when April weather is dry, farmers will plant more corn.

“It’s just the corn acres going up as much as they did wasn’t that big of a surprise. It’s the beans coming down,” says Gold. “That was the bigger surprise. And now you’re left with very tight carry outs on the beans. And this is assuming the government’s right on yield at 181.5 bu. per acre on corn and 52 [bu. per acre] on beans. And I don’t believe we’re near there, even with the rains that we’ve seen.”

Tighter Stocks Theme Continues in June Report

USDA’s March Grain Stocks report showed tighter stocks, which stole headlines. That theme continued Friday, with USDA’s estimates coming in lower than what the trade expected.

As of June 1, 2023, USDA shows the following adjustments in grain stocks:

Corn: 4.106 billion bushels, which is lower than the 4.35 billion at this time last year.
According to USDA, soybean stocks sit at 796 million bushels, also lower than the 968 million in June 2022.
Wheat stocks are projected at 580 million bushels, lower than the 698 million a year ago.

(Farm Journal)

Vaclavik says he doesn’t view the grain stocks report alone as bullish or bearish, but when you step back and look at the larger picture, demand is still an issue, but the supply story is changing after Friday’s reports.

“New crop demand for U.S. corn and U.S. soybeans is not good,” Vaclavik says. “The book of export sales is terrible. Ethanol production has not been where it needs to be. The one bright spot would be soybean crush, and we’re going to continue to set records there because of the crush expansion. But I think that as prices rise, especially in soybeans, you’ve probably got to look at the demand side and you could this you could say for the corn balance sheet to USDA is in all likelihood overstating new crop demand for both of those crops on the balance sheets given what we know today.”

The Yield Debate Heats Up

USDA’s reports definitely caused some fireworks, but says traders will digest those reports in a couple days. Then, the focus is back on weather.

“I’ll tell you this, the yield number and the acreage numbers are going to be digest not not the yield number. But the acreage numbers that we saw today, they will be digested by the trade very quickly. It’ll take maybe another day or two. And we’re going to be on again trading weather and yield prospects,” says Vaclavik.

The other possible crop impact is the derecho that blasted across the Midwest on Thursday . While the system brought crop-saving rain, it also packed a punch of winds topping 100 mph. According to agronomist Ken Ferrie who lives in Heyworth, Illinois, he thinks the earlier planted corn will be impacted the most.

“April-planted corn is pushing tassels and trying to pollinate, so unfortunately, it’ll get hit the hardest because it’s hard for tasseled corn to stand back up; it’ll just curve at the top,” Ferrie told AgWeb’s Rhonda Brooks. “And that down that’s corn creates pollination problems. So, from a yield problem that’ll be the tough spot, and that’ll be the tougher stuff to harvest because it just won’t stand back up.”

Yesterday, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ tracked a destructive #derecho as it raced across the Midwest, causing widespread damage across several states. This visible imagery shows the bubbling clouds, and the satellite's Geostationary Lightning Mapper allowed us to see the frequent… pic.twitter.com/SvYbnuf5em
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) June 30, 2023

Ferrie points out farmers could have done without the wind, but the rains could be extremely beneficial for much of the Illinois crop. That’s as c rop conditions last week dropped to the lowest since 1988 . Gold says now it’s a debate of just how beneficial those rains were this week.

“Before we had these rains this week, we were looking at a corn yield of maybe maybe 174 bu. per acre or 175, somewhere in that range. I think he got to bump it up a little bit, because a lot of areas did get some rains without the damage. But we don’t know the derecho damage, we’ll have to see what the crop progresses on Monday, but I’m not sure it’s going to show all the damage by any stretch of the imagination. And the bottom line is, the corn yield, in my opinion can’t get anywhere near 181.5 [bu. per acre]. We’ve had rains, we’re gonna get more rains here this weekend. What is it a little bit too much too late. We’ll have to see. The crops are resilient. We know that.

Peter Meyer of S&P Global Commodity Insights says the rains this week will help, but he thinks damage has been done to the crops. He doesn’t think it’s as bad as 2012, but he sees some similarities to 1992.

“In 1992, conditions were lower than 2023 levels early in the season, but rebounded with early-July rains, resulting in a corn yield that was 8% above trend at the time while soybean yields outperformed trend by 10%,” says Meyer. “While the 2023 weather pattern has changed with the transition to an El Nino, U.S. corn and soybean acres are/were dry enough to require constant moisture at this point. 1992 was also an El Nino year but that El Nino started in the summer of 1991 and was already entrenched for 12 months. 1992 also saw on the wettest July’s on record, a tall task at this point.”

Before this week’s rains, an AgWeb poll showed growers were extremely concerned about yields. The poll found 61% of respondents are getting more worried by the day when it comes to corn yields. 25% aren’t sure. 15% say they are feeling good about current yield potential.

(Farm Journal)

There is more rain in the forecast for Illinois, as Ferrie points out, with the possible crop prospects improving now that they had the initial rain, even if it did come with high winds.

“That inch of water, many farmers would probably take the wind in the corn to get the water, because it looked like we weren’t going to get any of it, and suddenly our forecast has rain for the next five out of six days,” says Ferrie. “So, it kind of broke that bubble that was holding us in the drought.”

Wide Range of Yield Estimates in Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

Ahead of USDA’s updated look at planted acres in the June acreage report, a new survey of ag economists shows a wide range of yield estimates. The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , conducted by University of Missouri and Farm Journal, shows the average estimate by economists is below USDA’s current projection for all crops, except cotton.

The survey showed:

Corn: 178.68 bu. per acre versus 181.5 bu. per acre (USDA’s current estimate)
Soybeans: 51.06 bu. per acre versus 52 bu. per acre
Wheat: 44.47 bu. per acre versus 44.9 bu. per acre
Sorghum: 68.17 bu. per acre versus 69.2 bu. per acre
Cotton: 855.18 pounds versus 841 pounds

(Farm Journal)

Scott Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, points out the yield variation largely depends on upcoming weather, but the dry weather in June is creating a wide range of yield estimates this year.

“I think when you look at both corn and soybean acres, there wasn’t a lot of deviation from the Prospective Plantings report USDA came out with a few months ago, so we didn’t see a big change there,” Brown says. “On the yield side, there are certainly some differences. The average yield estimate, on the corn side from the survey was a little more than 178 bu. per acre, with a downside of 175 bu. Likewise on soybeans, that came in at about 51 bu. per acre. Both corn and soybeans are below where USDA currently sees yields. I will say those are going to change quickly as we look at weather and what’s occurred since the survey would have gone out roughly a week ago now.”

Economists also expect crop prices to decline this year and next; however, there is a wide range in estimates signaling volatility will continue.

The average corn price is estimated to hit $4.99 per bushel for the current crop year and $4.74 for 2024/2025. The high range of the estimate for this year is $6 per bushel, with a low of $4.25 per bushel. Soybeans are also expected to trend lower, with an average estimate of $12.52 per bushel this year. The high came in at $14 per bushel. The low estimate was $10.85 per bushel. The average estimate for 2024/2025 is $11.90 per bushel.

Wheat prices are estimated to average $7.63 per bushel this year, with a low of $7 and a high of $8.49. The average estimate for wheat prices in 2024/2025 is $7.10 per bushel, with a high of $8 and a low of $6.49.

Related Stories:

USDA Reports Hold Bullish Surprise for Beans, But Bearish for Corn

Derecho Packs Punch Of 100 MPH Winds, Flattens Cornfields and Crushes Grain Bins Across the Midwest

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

How USDA's $2.8 Billion Climate-Smart Investment Might Impact Your Operation

Tue, 20 Sep 2022 06:20:07 GMT

After months of talking about climate-smart agriculture and working with a handful of funding recipients, USDA is now investing up to $2.8 billion in 70 projects under the first Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding pool. The projects, which seek funds ranging from $5 million to $100 million, include everything from flood control to building carbon markets.

After sifting through 450 proposals, USDA’s Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding recipients include:

Government entities
Farmer coops
Conservation, energy and environmental groups
Universities
Small businesses
Large corporations

Trust In Food™ , the sustainability division of Farm Journal , is among the USDA Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities project recipients for its coalition-driven Connected Ag Project.

The Impact of USDA Climate Funding

According to Tom Vilsack, USDA secretary, these efforts will “increase the competitive advantage of U.S. agriculture both domestically and internationally,” while building wealth in rural America.

“Through today’s announcement of initial selections for the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities, USDA is delivering on our promise to build and expand these market opportunities for American agriculture and be global leaders in climate-smart agricultural production,” he says.

USDA’s press release says, from the funding, farmers can expect:

1. Technical and financial assistance to implement voluntary climate-smart practices.

2. Methods to quantify, monitor, report and verify greenhouse gas benefits.

3. New markets and promotion in climate-smart commodities.

With this new funding in place, USDA anticipates the projects will:

Provide hundreds of expanded markets and revenue streams for producers and commodities ranging from traditional corn to specialty crops.
Reach more than 50,000 farms, encompassing 20 to 25 million acres of working land engaged in climate-smart production practices such as cover crops, no-till and nutrient management.
Sequester upward of 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent over the lives of the projects. This is equivalent to removing more than 10 million gasoline-powered passenger vehicles from the road for one year.
Engage more than 50 universities to help advance projects, especially with outreach and monitoring, measurement, reporting and verification.

Proposals for the 70 projects include plans to match 50% of the federal investment with nonfederal funds.

Who Will Provide the Funds?

The Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities funding will be pulled from USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funds in two pools. USDA says the projects announced today are part of the first funding pool.

The CCC has been tapped numerous times in the past year, such as a March announcement to put $250 million toward American-made fertilizer to give U.S. farmers more choices in the marketplace. Some, including Jim Wiesemeyer, Pro Farmer policy analyst, feel the CCC is more of an “ATM machine for aggies” than a tool used to stabilize, support and protect farm income and prices, as it was originally created for.

When asked about why USDA chose to pull more funds from the CCC, Vilsack said it was a matter of timing.

“We track expenditures from the CCC on a monthly basis. We are within a couple of weeks from the end of the fiscal year and there are significant resources left in the CCC account,” he says. “We won’t require any action from Congress to replenish the CCC. We will be able to adequately fund this initiative, as well as some nutrition announcements made today, and still have billions of dollars left in reserve in the account through the remainder of the fiscal year.”

The Agency says the second funding pool will be announced later this year.

How Funds Will Be Used

In the first pool of funding, numerous projects were selected with funding ceilings from $70 to $95 million. According to USDA, some of the individual projects that will span several states include:

1. Climate SMART (Scaling Mechanisms for Agriculture’s Regenerative Transformation), led by Truterra, LLC

This project, which will reach across 28 states, aims to catalyze a self-sustaining, market-based network to broaden farmer access, scale adoption of climate-smart practices, and sustainably produce grain and dairy commodities with verified and quantified climate benefits.

2. The Climate-Smart Agriculture Innovative Finance Initiative, led by Field to Market

This project, covering more than 30 states, will use innovative finance mechanisms to accelerate climate-smart practice uptake by farmers, leveraging private sector demand to strengthen markets for climate-smart commodities. Partners will provide technical assistance and additional financial incentives to an array of producers across commodities, tying climate-smart practices to commodity purchases and creating a scalable model for private sector investment.

3. Connected Ag Climate-Smart Commodities Pilot Project, led by Farm Journal, Inc.

This project will expand climate-smart markets for many agricultural commodities and provide direct payments, technical assistance and data management strategies to row crop, beef, dairy, pork and other producers to adopt climate-smart practices and strategies.

4. Scaling Methane Emissions Reductions and Soil Carbon Sequestration, led by the Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.

Through this project, Dairy Farmers of America (DFA) climate-smart pilots will directly connect on-farm greenhouse gas reductions with the low-carbon dairy market. DFA will use its cooperative business model to ensure the collective financial benefits are captured at the farm, creating a compelling opportunity to establish a powerful self-sustaining circular economy model benefiting U.S. agriculture.

5. The Soil Inventory Project Partnership for Impact and Demand, led by The Meridian Institute

This project will build climate-smart markets, streamline field data collection and combine sample results with modeling to make impact quantifications accurate and locally specific but also scalable. Targeted farms produce value-added and direct-to-consumer specialty crops as well as the 19 most common row crops in the U.S.

Details on the other projects can be found here .

More on ag policy:

Biden Administration Presses Unions, Railroads to Avoid Shutdown

More than Hangry: What’s Really at Stake in Global Food Insecurity?