Wheat

Cattle Higher as Cash is King, How Crazy Could it Get? Hogs and Grains See Fund Selling

Fri, 15 May 2026 16:02:43 GMT

Cattle were higher early Friday with the rest of the ag markets lower.

Cattle Rebound Friday
Cattle futures took a breather Thursday but were back higher early Friday with volatility reigning supreme according to Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says the cattle futures are getting tougher and tougher to trade because of the choppy action. “Because there’s no bids, no offers. The volume is hard. I mean, you try to sell five feeders at the market and all of a sudden it kicks the order back because there’s too much movement.”

That is making it tough for hedgers to use the board.

“So and as we’re doing these hedge strategies, we said, OK, we would like to use a spring rally to try to get some long term protection on. Now,
putting that on is really hard in these markets and you have to be ready. It’s not going to be cheap to get some floors on in the feeder cattle market,” he says.

Record Cash but How Crazy Could it Get?
The futures market is still at a discount to this week’s record cash trade which continues to look bullish.

The volume of cash in the North was in the $265 area but the South also saw $260 to $262 as packers seem hungry for cattle according to Varilek.

“I mean, just the hunger from certain majors and all the packers out there buying these cattle is really wow to me. We get some $265 trade, you know, getting this really wide basis normally this is our widest basis is in May and at record prices,” he says.

And packers are buying at these prices for delayed delivery into even the middle of June which is also bullish.

“They’re just grabbing a bunch of inventory so that way they can sit for a while and then it seems like then they’re back the next week already. So still tight supplies up front. It feels really good. And I love it that some of these majors are out front. You know, for the north, that means a lot.”

He says usually Northern feed lots have a hard time getting bids from certain packers but that isn’t the case this year as the cattle market is into its tightest supplies.

“But we’re turning over to this calf crop where these weights are a lot lower, and we’ve got cattle on feed that we might not want to sell yet and packers are calling bidding on them,” he adds.

So next week he expects asking prices will be higher at $268 to $270.

Higher Cattle Limits
Part of the break in the futures on Thursday was news the CME Group was raising limits on cattle again to $8.50 on live cattle and $10.75 on feeder cattle.

Varilek says that only benefits the big fund traders and they are pushing for it, to the expense of producers.

“We do not want that as producers. It’s hard to see our bottom line change by that much just in the matter of seconds. It doesn’t feel like we need that,” he adds.

Ft. Morgan Union to Vote on a Strike on Monday
The Fort Morgan, CO Cargill beef plant union is expected to vote on whether they are striking or not on Monday.

However, Varilek says it may be a non-event because the plant has been dark and the market hasn’t cared.

” And it just feels like we haven’t traded that real hard just because it’s been closed for four weeks and yet we’re still seeing cash move higher. Packers are still very aggressive buying cattle. It’s like, OK, I guess I guess nothing happened. So if there’s some more new news next week, maybe we’ll see if it really dives into the market.”

He’s doubtful it will but the bigger concern is another plant closure.

China Beef News
Conflicting news reports on China re-listing nearly 400 U.S. beef plants for export ended with China still not accepting U.S. beef.

However, Varilek says the market did not trade it.

” I feel like we brushed it off, you know, just because, number one, we know Trump’s saying beef prices are too high and he wants to import a bunch of beef to try to handle this tight supply. So we know we don’t have just a large amount of beef to sell, to export, you know, so we don’t really have it. So then the fact that it came out that they’re not, I don’t think we’re trading that real hard,” he adds.

Hogs Spiral on Mexican Export Resistrictions?
Lean hogs saw a nice rally on Wednesday but failed to get follow through buying on Thursday or to start Friday.

Varilek says the inability of the market to find a bottom may be tied to Mexico putting some export restrictions on U.S. pig semen, live breeding animals and offal due to pseudorabies.

“A negative flag that it’s raising there just because Mexico is our number one customer there for pork and and we desperately need it and this adds value to some of the lower quality pork products,” he says.

He says this doesn’t impact muscle cuts but Mexico does take a large amount of variety meats and this accounts for 10% of all their imports.

That is offsetting some of the positive news in the market including that two to three packers aren’t killing on Fridays because they can’t find enough hogs.

Funds Sell in Grains on China Disappointment
Grains are lower again Friday after funds sold hard in the grain and cotton markets on Thursday.

It was in response to the lack of tangible agricultural purchase commitments from China during the summit in Beijing.

Will the funds continue to liquidate in the grains after the technical damage done?

He says, “Yeah, we’re doing some short-term chart damage here and things just are trading pretty ugly today despite the higher energy markets. The grains had rallied on hopes of China business and just the fact that we did not get any news the funds didn’t like it,” he says.

How Low Will Prices Fall?
Varilek sees the grains slipping back into the recent trading ranges but there is good chart support on the bottom side of the ranges that should hold going into the growing season.

“So I’ll be looking for Sunday night’s trade to kind of start to hold as funds usually liquidate in three day waves. We might try to find some value buyers, some end users in some of these markets. So not ready to write it off and say, we got to go find some new lows here,” he says.

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:34 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 20:45:22 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

Cattle Fall After Reversal, Is the Top In? Corn Above $5, Beans to New Highs

Mon, 04 May 2026 22:24:04 GMT

Grains end mostly higher Monday, with cattle and hogs lower.

Have Cattle Topped?
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day on follow through selling. Both made record highs on Friday and then closed lower on big volume scoring key reversals.

So is the top in the cattle market?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this market but it fits the profile of a technical top.

“Some 45 years ago I learned a reversal has to be from a terminal area, which is just a fancy way of saying an important area. And I don’t know what’s more important than the all time high. So, we did that on Friday. It has to be done on big volume. It was 86,000. It should be accompanied by an increase in open interest, and it was. And then the third thing is that it should have followed through the following day,” he explains.

However, he says the market ended well off the lows because at one time feeder cattle were over $7 lower and the June live cattle closed almost $3.50 off its lows.

“While it was still lower, it was a long ways from where it was,” he says.

Cattle Hold Critical Support
So the market held the support it needed to on the charts because according to Kooima June live cattle stayed above the 50-day and the
20-day moving averages, which has been kind of significant to keep an eye on.

“August feeders got a little whippy. We got all the way down to 62% retracement, then held that. So I’d say we did good enough holding what I think was technically important,” he adds.

Cash Trade Topped?
Several fundamental factors may have also caused the sell off including this week’s cash expectations.

Last week the cash market hit record high levels with Southern deals mostly $244 to $256, up $9 to $10. The North was $255 to $258 live and mostly $400 dressed, up $14.

The average steer price was reported by USDA at a new record high of $255.02, up $8.84. So it will be hard to see an encore.

“I mean, the market was basically $246 last week, Wednesday, I think. I know I passed $248 on Friday then, but if you compare like $246 and then getting cattle as high as $258 last week. You find me a week where that happened before. There was a couple of weeks in 2014 that were like that, but maybe not quite that much,” he says.

Kooima adds that it is interesting the packers came out already so aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday, to try to buy cattle.

“And dovetail that with the fact that a month ago or so, there was plenty of these basis deals made by some of the major packers where they were willing to pay five or six over where the Junes were for the first two weeks of May. At that time, that was the equivalent of like $252 on cash cattle. At the same time, the cash market was probably $5 to $7 less than that. Well, a lot of guys did that because that looked pretty attractive, right? Turns out it’s cheap now compared to what the packer paid last week,” he explains.

So the packer was trying to get enough inventory so they didn’t have to work so hard to secure as many numbers this week theorizes Kooima.

“So you’re going to have a standoffish week on cash, maybe. Let’s call it steady due to lack of trade, perhaps, just because I don’t think we’ve
got very small show lists up here in the North, very small. So we don’t have much for sale, but you might have a packer that might not need to buy much,” he says.

Kill Cuts
That because the packers are trying to cut kills this week to prop up their margins.

“I’m not going to say names, but there’s plenty of them that are going four days this week. And one’s down today. A couple of them are down Friday. So the packer is trying to do whatever is necessary to not have to chase the market anymore,” he adds.

That was already a pressuring feature for the market on Friday.

High Gas, Stock Market Sell Off
Also working against the cattle market was the surging gas prices and the sharply lower stock market.

At some point that becomes negative for consumer demand. “One has the worry that, you know, and the inflation or the stress on the budget that’s created by that. And let’s be honest. I mean, boxed beef is no runaway with this tight kill. And it is less than a week now till Mother’s Day. We’re already past that. Usually two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day. That’s kind of your signal for let’s begin the middle meat rally. So hopefully it
still develops. But I think. There was some of that going on today,” he says.

So that created some technical selling especially with the funds nearly record long.

DOJ Probe
Adding to the bearish attitude was USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterating the goal of the Trump administration to get beef prices down.

Part of that strategy includes a Department of Justice investigation of the beef packing industry.

He says, “I’m not sure that Secretary Rollins commentary this morning was helpful to the market either, bringing up the concept of investigating the big four. You know, probably if you’re an algorithm trader and you’re trading, you might think, you know what, I don’t think I want to be participating in this kind of uncertainty.”

DOJ has probed the packing industry in the past only to walk away empty handed but it spooked the funds.

“There’s things that have happened historically that deserve some looking into including the Holcomb fire. I was very vocal through that period about how we killed more cattle after the fire than before it but they couldn’t see anything wrong then. You know, I mean, we had 85 cent cattle and $450 boxes. So, you know, so what are they going to find now?”

Hogs Down Again
Lean hog futures were down again on Monday with continued fund liquidation and technical selling.

Kooima says the market got spooked about the pseudorabies case in Iowa on Thursday and Friday.

He was hopeful with the positive comments Iowa Secretary of Ag Mike Naig made about the problem being contained that the market would stablize.

“He outlined how everything got tested. These were five boars from Texas and an isolated incident. We’ve got protocol in place and we haven’t had a case since 2004. I was hoping that maybe cooler heads would prevail,” he adds.

Kooima says the cash news is pretty friendly but the market can’t find support and the charts look terrible.

“The inability to source pigs because of the disease problems is real. What these pigs cost, close to $100 on an isowean, $150 on a 40-pounder, would tell you just how tight the supply is. So, you know, I have a tendency to be a little bit of a supply-side bull here with nothing to show for it.”

Soybeans Break to Fresh Highs
Soybeans ended 16 to 21 cents higher on Monday and made new highs for the move in both old and new crop contracts.

The market was following bean oil which made more new contract and multi-year highs once again chasing higher crude oil.

The market was also building in optimism ramping up into the trade summit next week in China.

“The hope that we get something tangible with this China visit. I would caution everybody be a little careful as this is China. They’re a bit disingenuous and not the most reliable trade partner but that is out there,” he states.

The crude oil/bean oil story is also a drive as he says with higher energy prices there is the fear of inflation.

“I think is reflecting in some of our commodity prices here, too, most notably some of the stuff that is relatively cheap, like the grains are,” he adds.

How High Will Soybeans Rally?
With the chart breakout will July soybeans be able to take out the March high of $12.50 3/4 and will November soybeans get above $12?

Kooima says both of those moves are in the cards. “Based on the chart pattern here and the fact we have broke out of the range we have been in for six or seven weeks. When you break out of those consolidation patterns that it’s like coiling a spring. I always think the tighter it’s wound then the bigger reaction you get. So, this thing actually projects through that old $12.50 area on the July beans which is a big deal. On both the
weekly chart and on the daily chart it actually opens up the path here for a move to $12.70 or even maybe even closer to $13 on the old crop.”

That could put November in the $12.40 to $12.50 price range where he would suggest some marketing.

Corn Makes Fresh Highs, Dec Closes Above $5
Corn also made fresh highs for the move in sympathy with soybeans and on fund buying.

Funds bought over 80,000 contracts and could add to that Kooima says.

“You don’t have to be a genius to look at $4.85 to $4.87 on the July corn to know how important that is. Let’s see if we can take that out. December corn, you know, that’s new highs for the move. Nice looking chart pattern. We are kind of overbought here. I don’t know if we need to rest just a little bit. But, you know, incrementally, I was starting to look at some new crop sales here. And then the next level at around $5.20. And then the next one around $5.45. I’m more inclined to sell into the corn rally.”

He says the market is also watching weather, lower acreage and fertilizer concerns plus whether or not China buys corn at the summit.

Cattle Futures Hit Record Highs, Are $400 Feeders Next? Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies

Fri, 01 May 2026 16:06:08 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans higher Friday, with hogs lower.

Feeders Hit Record Highs, How High Will Prices Go?
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday’s open and quickly moved into record high territory.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs.

Feeder are back as the leaders in the complex but how high will prices go now that prices are back up into record highs?

He says, “It does feel like, okay, live cattle had already made their contract highs. Feeders were next. So, what numbers can we grab? I’ve heard the $380. I’ve heard the $390. I’ve heard the $400. We’re all just reaching, making up numbers that we can. We’ve already seen eight weights spring $400 in sale barns in the North. So it’s not something out of the ordinary that can’t happen. So once we bust through, it feels like, yeah, they have the legs to do it.”

He stresses that this could be the last higher push for a while.

“We’re going to want to be ready for it. I think this is our last charge higher. I guess it’s feeling like we’re getting towards the ninth inning of this. I think we’ve probably heard that a few times, but this is a rally that is going to be the one that’s going to be the one that we’re going to want to sell, I guess. So the chance to get to $4 is there. It really could happen,” he adds.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs First
Live cattle had already hit record highs earlier in the week and took out those levels again on Friday.

The market says some end of month profit taking Thursday but charged back higher Friday morning chasing cash.

Record cash trade broke already on Tuesday at $11, $12 higher than last week at $258 in the North, $255 to $256 in the South.

He says it caught the market by surprise, “I mean, that’s not something that’s normal. And it’s odd because when we were getting bid the $246, And the market wasn’t trading as hot as it was. I think the packers could have just went to $248 and bought all of the show lists and bought all
of the cattle. The fact that they waited another week, was it a shoot, you caught me bluffing move? Or was there somebody that’s really long, this board that wanted it to go higher? I don’t know and we won’t know. But regardless. Big charge higher, $12.”

He says bids started Tuesday at $250 and quickly went to $252 and then to $255.

“I thought that would do it. And then was just surprised when I started hearing that everybody was passing it and then get to $258, which a lot of people did get that and did trade that. You could get it for shorter. You could get two over the August for basis contracts. So, the packer was trying to get as many cattle around them as they can. And I would believe that everything on the show list, if you’re passing that kind of price, I don’t know what you’re waiting for,” he adds.

He hasn’t seen anything like it since 2014 but it was a big inventory grab and packers bought for delayed delivery as well.

Packers Buy Ahead of Kill Cuts
Packers were aggressively getting inventory as they are talking about kill cuts starting next week.

“Just hearing that there’s some majors that are going to start kill cuts next week, start to slow down the chain. And I mean, it’s just, it’s how tight we are. In this cattle industry, we’re, you know, 8% down, 8 to 9% down on steer to heifer slaughter this year. Cow slaughter is way down. Dairy cow slaughter is down. It’s just there’s still a shortage. So this last little push is all on supply, in my opinion. And I think that’s how the packer is trying to manage it,” he explains.

He says they are cutting kills to get boxed beef to move higher and improve their margins and the industry is still down a plant from a strike.

How High Will Live Cattle Futures Run?
Live cattle have continued to push into record high areas but how high will prices go?

Varilek says it is hard to even project because there are no technical areas on the charts to even compare to now.

“You’re up in new territory. You’re just grabbing, you know whatever number comes to your mind somebody wants to say a really high number so they can get remembered. I would rather try to do you guys some good rather than just make up a number up high and try to throw it to you that’s just that’s all made up,” he adds.

But he does say it depends not just on supply but demand.

“For me it’s just that this demand is going to have to pick up if we’re going to keep these live cattle running through and that’s the part that’s seeming to be just a little bit lacking. Seeing mixed feelings on what these steak cuts are doing. You know, the ribeye rolls are down. Usually we’re trying to, you know, see how high we can get those or how much a consumer is going to pay for them this time of year in the red hot grilling season, Mother’s Day weekend coming up and we’re actually dropping them a little bit. So I don’t like that,” he further explains.

Plus, he says with energy prices soaring it is hitting consumer pocketbooks which could also ratchet back demand.

Hogs Fall on Iowa Pseudorabies Case
Lean hog futures were down on Thursday and again Friday with the uncertainty tied to the first case of pseudorabies in a hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

“So it’s five boars that were shipped, you know, were. tested positive and some were shipped from Texas to Iowa. So sounding like it was show pigs, not sure. Can’t totally confirm that, but that would make sense on how that happened,” he says.

However, the disease is manageable according to Varilek.

“So we have vaccination capabilities already, protocol in place. So, for me it’s okay I think we’re going to be able to eradicate this once again and make this a short-lived kind of a worry here because it it is something that that’s real and I mean it’s something that can have you know
they could be dead within 48 to 72 hours. Hogs are a great host likely mixed with some feral hogs so it is around.”

Is it Bullish or Bearish?
Varilek says it does severely cut production which takes supply off the market which is bullish.

However, it is still a market uncertainty.

“So uncertainty is always bearish. Packers are trying to note some certain timeframes where they would kill hogs with pseudo rabies. So they were still entering, you know. you know, the meat supply. We weren’t worried about it back then. So because they had windows where you could slaughter those hogs. So a lot to digest here real fast. Everybody’s Googling pseudorabies and trying to learn as much as they can here real fast,” he adds.

Nov Soybeans Hit Contract Highs, Corn Also Higher
Corn and soybeans were higher early with November soybeans making new contract highs.

Varilek soybeans are following the new contract highs in bean oil.

“That seems to be the biggest thing, just the energy is staying so strong. And that’s making a lot of the headlines, the war. and how high crude oil is. So, I think that those markets are starting to respect that. I mean from a production side yeah you said more acres we’re seeing a little bit of replant we’ve got some frost. Which usually those rallies that are based off of frost and replant those are rallies that are meant to be sold. But I don’t think that that’s all of this I do think it’s energy,” he states.

Can Dec Corn Get Above $5?
Corn is also higher on the biofuels push with strong ethanol margins and profits.

With $100 crude oil corn could stay supported for a while and chew through some of the large ending stocks.

So will Dec corn get above $5?

Varilek says, “So we’ve got a bar right there, $5. We’ve seen it fail there a few times. Now I think if you just poke through it. I think you’re going to get some follow through strength on it just because it’s been such a number. Oh, that looks easy. Just sell it right below five bucks here and let it break. But those triple tops never hold, they kind of say. So I feel like we’re going to be able to get through it and might get some follow
through.”

He adds that the funds are long corn and the news may finally be good enough to rally the corn and grain markets.

Cattle Bottoming as Border/Strike Talk Fear Eases and Cash Ideas Improve

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:29:35 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains are all higher early Monday.

Cattle Extend Gains a Third Day
Live and feeder cattle futures are higher on Monday for a third day.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday.

Border Fears Subside
Part of the bounce also came as fears subsided regarding a possible reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

The fear started already on April 17 when USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was in Texas for the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility to help combat New World screwworm (NWS).

However, Rollins was also scheduled for a trip to Arizona on Friday, April 24 which renewed fears of an announcement.

So, Kooima says when Rollins said Thursday she was canceling the trip the market breathed a sigh of relief.

“She canceled her trip due to biosecurity reasons as you’ve got a case that’s supposedly was within 60 miles of the Texas border even though this port that she was going to go to out there by Douglas is almost 800 miles away from there,” he explains.

Cash Market Firms With Board
Following the recovery in the futures the feedlots started to pass on packer bids of $246 being offered for fed cash cattle.

Kooima says there was some trade at $246 and $386 dressed but by Friday some feeders in the North were passing on $248 as feedlots regained leverage.

“I certainly have a little more optimism this week on a Monday than I did last week for cash. I think there’s a real shot we can get back to $250. We shall see. But the show list up here, very small. And we’re in that kind of that in-between time, Michelle, where the yearlings are largely gone. We’re trying to push these calves to get fat and the weather’s been great. So some of them are pretty close, but you know, this holding action type of a deal that we’ve had for a while, I think this holding action rally here is going to continue until it doesn’t,” he says.

He thinks producers will be slow to sell when it costs $1 to put gain on and so he thinks supplies will be tight for the next 30 to 45 days.

Fear of Potential Fort Morgan Plant Strike Ease
Early last Thursday, the market also sold off on fear that workers at the Cargill beef plant at Fort Morgan, Colorado, were going to walk out. Kooima says the plant did not slaughter Thursday, Friday or Monday while negotiations were taking place.

“Supposedly they were going to return to, or they were going to start negotiations this week. What I do know is that it sounds like this is not a union backed strike, that this is what they would call a wildcat strike, which people are kind of voluntary. I say, Hey, we’re leaving, you know, blah, blah, blah. I’m not certain as to what. their demands exactly are what the beef is or what they’re trying to what they’re trying to accomplish other than I suppose the obvious, more pay less work,” he adds.

The plant has a capacity of 4,700 but is currently slaughtering only around 4,000 currently. Still he says the market has faded the news like it isn’t that concerned.

“It might affect that cash market, maybe that Western Nebraska, Colorado market, maybe more than anything else. But I’ll keep you posted. At this point, it’s kind of day to day. And I think the market would tell you that they don’t expect it’s going to last long. Otherwise, I think we’d be trading worse,” he says.

Plus, shackle space is at a surplus to available cattle right now softening the blow.

However, he says if boxed beef prices don’t improve soon to help get packer margins back in the black it could lead to additional plant closures.

“But unless this box beef catches here somebody’s going to have to drop again. I mean, the packer, that side of the industry is not just going to sit there and merrily lose $200 a head every day without closing another place or severely cutting this kill back.”

Funds Stay Long Cattle?
The latest Commitment of Traders Report indicated funds are still long around 135,000 futures and option positions and have exited about 1,800 positions as of last Tuesday.

So is there a fear that the commodity fund traders are going to continue to liquidate just because the market already hit the record highs?

He says, “You bet there’s a fear, at least for some of us, for me. That would be the gorilla in the room here. The fundamentals, really good.

June cattle, probably. a little higher priced normally than what they would be basis wise I think last year we were like $8 or $10 under cash. So if you get $248 and the basis was like last year you could have June cattle at $240 or $238. It’s not it’s at $247 okay with the last cash the best of the last cash at $248. Sp, is it that the cash is too low or are the futures too high?”

Hogs Bounce or Bottom?
Lean hog futures were higher Monday and had a higher weekly close last week.

So is the market putting in a bottom and how much upside is there?

Kooima says, “Hog charts have a nice looking formation, you know, had that big outside day down where it looked like they were in a wreck on Thursday, came back gap higher last week and just barely by the skin of our teeth, we’ve been holding that gap, which is good. So I would like to get us above $103.70, above the 20-day to make me feel just a bit better about it.”

He says feeder pigs are running nearly $140 a head, which is a function of tight supply creaated by another round of big-time disease problems in some of the farrowing units in the North,” he explains that has him a bit friendly.

Grains Rally, Corn Makes Fresh Highs
Grains were higher early Monday with old crop corn making fresh highs for the move.

Corn has received some help from the weather rally in wheat but may be trading its own weather concerns with heavy rains over the weekend in some key production areas of the Midwest.

“And get used to it. This is what you and I will be talking about for the next three months, right? Whether it did or if it didn’t, or did it rain where it’s supposed to.”

However, he is not overly bullish due to the large carryout and poor basis in the Northwestern Corn Belt.

“So we’re right at halfway back on the July corn on this last move so that we’re going to learn a little bit about the market right here, I’d love to see the basis tighten and it usually is tightest when guys are out in the field worried about planting corn they’re not sitting by their grain bin loading corn,” he says.

Soybeans have been sideways for the last six weeks says Kooima, and he thinks the crude oil and bean oil story is about running its course too.

“I don’t know how far you can stretch that rubber band. So a long way to go here. We got a long growing season and we’ll see once,” he adds.

Cattle Bounce as Border/Strike Fears Fade, But is the Correction Over? Grains Eye Weather

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 15:49:26 GMT

Ag markets were mostly lower early Friday, except cattle.

Cattle Bottoming?
Cattle futures were higher early Friday with follow through buying after a higher close Thursday.

Futures are trading back above key support areas on the charts so is the correction over?

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says $243 was the line in the sand for the June live cattle or funds would liquidate.

“Well, we tested it. We broke it. Broke some short-term trend lines. So it was a little bit dicey for a minute. But then we were able to recover. I think it almost got to a spot where we’re saying, okay, we have some damage. Now what? What’s the follow-through? And then it just, kind of started gaining confidence slowly, able to close higher yesterday following through today,” he describes.

He says the market was overbought and due for a correction so he’s hopeful that has been completed especially since May is a strong month for beef.

Wild Ride Thursday
Thursday was the real test for the market for feeders as they went limit down for a time on talk that the beef plant in Fort Morgan, CO was not slaughtering cattle as workers walked off the job and were going to strike.

Varilek says the plant slaughters over 4,000 head a day and that story is still not fully confirmed.

“Yeah, and we’re all trying to find as much information on that as we can. And just like the last strike, hard to find it. It seems to be a little bit quieter. But yeah, they actually walked out at Fort Morgan and they canceled some loads, canceled their Thursday, Friday kills was what I had heard. And that they were planning on getting together with some talks. They were confident that. They might not take that long, you know, so that’s where we sit. More uncertainty, you know, thrown into this market. That’s one of the reasons that we really crashed.”

He says they will watch for developments over the weekend and see if there are still loads heading to the plant or not for clues.

“So if I would say right now, we’ll trade it like it’s more short term and not break the market because it isn’t a long term thing,” he adds.

Market Recovers as Rollins Cancels Arizona Event
The cattle market recovered well off the lows and closed back higher on Thursday on news that Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Ag, canceled her trip to Arizona on Friday alleviating the fears she might make an announcement about a reopening of the border to Mexican cattle.

He says, “The reason we’re able to recover maybe was because, you know, she had said no announcement last Friday and that she planned to physically to go herself to Arizona to you know, check things out. And so then we just kicked that can down the road.”

He says there have been more screw worm cases 60 miles south of the border which may have caused USDA to reverse course or delay a reopening.

Fed Cash Market Lower
The fed cash market was also pressured by this week’s lower cash trade at $246 in the both the South and North, plus some $386 dressed trade. Those are all $2 lower than the previous week.

However, with the board rebounding any additional cattle will likely be bought at $248 as producers have regained leverage.

“Packers were a couple dollars lower they’re sitting at $246 and not really moving just letting cattle come to them. I mean a few sales but now that this board has recovered some I think they’ve got what they’re going to get at $246 and if they’re going to want some they’re going to
have to start to move it up to $248, $250. There will still be plenty of guys that that want to get that,” he explains.

He says the market is just finishing up on yearlings. “You know these long day fed yearlings that you know we’ve had we’re not usually selling yearlings here in April but that’s the nature of the beast right now as we know how to make them bigger we’ve got cheap cost of gains the feeding weather is outstanding just these huge gains on these cattle then we’re going to crawl into that calf crop and they are not going to be carrying the weight that these yearlings were. So, that’s the thing that I alluded to about May that there’s always that old saying, never be short June cattle in the month of May.”

With Mother’s Day coming up he says demand will also be strong and so packers may need to move cash up.

Cattle Resilient
Varilek also points out the cattle market has been resilient through war headlines, the down in the stock market and even higher gas prices at the pump.

“We’ve talked about all of these other stories and I don’t know that war premium or the energy prices has really crept into the beef. I mean, we wouldn’t be trading cash cattle $4 off of the all time high if we were worried about the consumers, really getting strapped.”

Lean Hogs Bottoming?
Lean hog futures were lower on Friday with some profit taking after a mostly higher week but is the market bottoming?

Varilek speculates, “Yeah, we finally saw the cash and the cutout jump a little bit, provided us with a gap higher after the third leg lower, kind of been on the lower trade. That was some good action. It’s like, okay, maybe some respect, I guess,.”

But he points out numbers will really need to tighten for the market to justify the premiums in the deferred futures.

“We do see some of these deferred markets trading stronger than the front. We’re waiting on the cash. I think you get to July and August and they feel like, yeah, we want to rally. We think that we should. $135 to $150 feeder pigs you know weighing 40 pounds I mean these are big prices that you’re having to pay if you want to fill those barns and so that keeps telling us that the supply is tight, it’s not there we need higher prices,” he adds.

He says the May contract is at a pretty good discount to June and that gap usually narrows but it hasn’t happened yet.

“So, the proof has not shown up yet to get this cash market rally, to, you know, prove me right.”

Grains Mixed to Lower Trading Weather
Wheat futures broke out to some fresh highs on Thursday on drought and frost concerns but is setting back early Friday on profit taking and some rain chances in the extended maps.

Corn and soybeans are easing with wheat but are also waiting for more direction on weather according to Varilek.

“I think we are just waiting. You know, what are these weather patterns? There’s areas that are getting lots of rain, too much rain. And then there’s others that are just it’s so dry we’re having dust bowl weather. So, you can find what you’re looking for in the weather right now and that’s typical every year,” he says.

Ultimately he thinks the crop will get planted and it is too early to get concerned.

So beyond weather the grains will need another story and right now the war and inflation news could spark buying but just not yet.

One of North America’s Largest Farms Files for Financial Protection, Is Restructuring

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 14:50:03 GMT

Earlier this week, Monette Group, which farms more than 400,000 acres in Canada and the U.S. filed for financial protection and is restructuring.

The company filed for creditor protector in Canada via the Companies’ Creditor Arrangement Act (CCAA) and filed Chapter 15 in Delaware Bankruptcy Court.

The Cost of Expansion: Efficiency Erosion and the Leverage Trap

The group’s recent financial trajectory highlights a cautionary tale of aggressive, debt-fueled expansion meeting a volatile economic climate. While the organization successfully scaled its footprint and top-line revenue over the last several years, operational efficiency and debt sustainability have reached a critical breaking point. [all dollars are Canadian]

The Era of Aggressive Growth (2017–2022)
Driven by substantial borrowing, the Group underwent a massive scale-up, growing revenue from $45 million to $198 million and expanding its cultivated land from 97,000 to 269,000 acres. While total EBITDA initially followed this upward trend, the underlying efficiency—measured by EBITDA-per-acre—began to signal trouble, dropping significantly from its 2015 highs.
Operational Headwinds and Margin Compression (2024–Present)
The transition into 2024 saw revenue climb to a record $347 million across 440,000 acres, yet profitability decoupled from growth. Diversification into produce and cattle, intended to broaden the portfolio, instead acted as a drag on the bottom line. By 2024, EBITDA-per-acre plummeted to a decade low of $83—a nearly 50% decline. This downward trend was exacerbated in 2025; despite a projected $72 million EBITDA, actual earnings reached only $31 million due to a “perfect storm” of poor crop prices, high input costs, and yield losses.
The Sustainability Crisis
The group’s reliance on cheap capital (approximately 3% interest rates) and rising real estate valuations proved successful in a low-rate environment. However, the convergence of flat property values, persistent inflation, and high interest rates has rendered the current capital structure unsustainable. Despite holding significant underlying asset value, the group is now overleveraged, with compressed margins leaving little room to service debt or maintain liquidity.

What Is Monette Group?

Since 2010, Monette Group has been aggressively expanding from its family farm in Saskatchewan to Manitoba and British Columbia in Canada. Current President Darrel Monette took over the family farm in 2013. In 2019, the company expanded into the U.S. first in Montana and then Arizona and Colorado. The company’s website says its core values are: teamwork, efficiency, growth and ‘get shit done.’

With its expansion and diversification, the business expanded into four main brands:

Monette Farms: growing pulses, wheat, corn, sugar beets, barley, and alfalfa in Canada and the U.S.
Monette Produce: with growing locations in California, Arizona and Canada
Monette Cattle: ranches located in Saskatchewan and British Columbia
Monette Seeds: located in Saskatchewan in partnership with NexGen Seeds

The 18 business entities of Monette Group employ between 300 and 600 people, depending on the season.

Grain production, primarily canola, wheat and durum accounted for over 60% of group revenue in 2024 and more than 50% in 2025. Grain operations dominate the Canadian footprint with 68% of the group’s production occurring in Canada.

Fresh produce operations are primarily located in Saskatchewan and British Columbia, with significant fall and winter production in Arizona. In 2025, produce accounted for approximately 15% of group revenue. Crops include carrots, squash, broccoli, cabbage, pumpkin, cauliflower and watermelon. The group’s produce is mainly sold to Loblaws and the Little Potato Company.

Cattle ranching accounted for approximately 10% of revenue in 2024 and 17% in 2025. Cattle ranching operations focus on Black and Red Angus cattle, including herd breeding in British Columbia and feedlots across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Seed processing accounted for 19% of revenue in 2024 and 16% in 2025.

Its main crops 10 years ago were green and red lentils, durum, canola and malting barley.

According to the company’s website, Monette Farms’ newest addition is west of Phoenix, Arizona. It’s a certified organic farm and headquarters to Monette Seeds USA.

What Monette Farms Has Said

President Darrel Monette has penned a letter sent to landowners and leasing partners as well as a press release distributed with general counsel as the point of contact. Both are dated April 21, 2026.

In both Monette says this process will allow them to stabilize finances, restructure debt, and continue operating.

The letter read: “This filing is a proactive response to current industry pressures (higher input costs, higher interest rates, and tighter credit) and is not a liquidation.”

It continued: “We are working with our advisors and a court-appointed Monitor to develop a restructuring plan for credit and court approval.”

Per a company press release, the day-to-day farming activities, spring seeding and livestock care are continuing as planned. The release also said all employees are being retained at this time.

The Assets of Monette Group

According to its 2025 financial statements, the group has $1.24 billion of total assets booked at cost (and not reflective of market value.)

As of April 12, 2026, the group owns 274,000 acres of land. In the U.S. Monette owns 61,700 acres in Arizona, Montana and Colorado.

For crop production, it leases 175,000 acres in Canada and 43,000 acres in the U.S. with annual total lease payments of $29.4 million. For its cattle business, Monette holds grazing licenses on 1.2 million acres of land in Canada.

The group owns three seed processing facilities in Canada.

It leases more than 1,700 separate units of farm equipment, with 1,600 units leased from John Deere Financial. Annually, the group spends $26 million on leased equipment.In 2023, it was newsworthy when the business transitioned from Case IH equipment to John Deere equipment in a reported $100+ million deal.

What Else Is There To Watch?

Monette Group is one of the largest privately held farming operations in North America.

The timing of this filing is critical for the farm to put in a 2026 crop. In the CCAA filing, Monette Group said its seed expenses are $40 million per year. To get set up for seeding, Monette’s operations may receive 41 truck loads of product a day (nearly 15,000 truck loads a year).

The main filing is in Canada with proceedings under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) as part of a court-supervised restructuring process. From here is a process by which Monette will work with a court-appointed monitor to develop a restructuring plan for creditor and court approval.

The Chapter 15 filing asks the U.S. court to recognize the Canadian CCAA proceeding as the “foreign main proceeding” which can extend the protection of U.S. assets. It also prevents U.S. creditors from taking legal action such as seizing assets or filing lawsuits.

In the CCAA document, it is stated Monette Group held a $950 million secured credit facility dated December 5, 2018, which matured on April 15, 2026. Repayment of the obligations owing to the syndicate of lenders is a necessary component of the group’s overall restructuring strategy.

The CCAA filing comes after Monette per the guidance of its lending syndicate to sell assets. Two tracts were sold in 2025: in Regina, Saskatchewan for $41.18 million and 17,000 acres of land in Montana for $47.5 million. Additional sales were attempted this this winter, but with only one completed sale of 12,932 acres of farmland in the Stewart Valley of Swift Current, Saskatchewan for $54 million.

In the affadavit, Monette says a restructuring and selling of assets by the court appointed monitor is important to provide an orderly sale of assets and not cause a bulk liquidation which could result in lower values.

The farm has been active on social media:

Cattle Digest Cattle on Feed but Will The Market Retest the Highs? Can Hogs Hold?

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:54:30 GMT

Livestock are higher Monday morning with corn and wheat trying to hold gains and soybeans lower.

Cattle Bounce After Holding Support and a Wild NWS Ride on Friday
Cattle futures are higher on Monday after a volatile session on Friday.

Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures plunged with feeders touching limit down after around 10:00 am Central Time.

The selloff came on fears of USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announcing the reopening of the Southern border to Mexican cattle imports while at at the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility in Texas to curb NWS.

When Rollins didn’t announce a reopening the market quickly rebounded he says. “I still think it’s kind of an AI generated program that caught Rollins speaking at 11:00 am.”

The good news is the market found good support at $243 on June live cattle, a mark that is being eyed by fund and algorithm traders.

“So we did hold that which was nice to see so found some support. When you have a market that is that overbought for that long unfortunately your sell-offs can be kind of pent up to a certain degree,” he explains.

Rollins in Arizona This Friday
Rollins is expected to be in Arizona this Friday and so he is fearful it could produce the same type of volatile action in the cattle market.

“You know, I thought I had heard her say we’re not going to do anything unless we can get some of those cases further away from any border of the U.S. But I’m unfortunately I’m fearful the market’s going to have a little bit of a leery feel on Friday.”

He adds the numbers coming through the border may be much smaller than feared after the border has been closed for a year now.

“The traders they just like to feed off of those headline and unfortunately we just can’t put that to rest until we get some kind of a hard headline basically with it but that’s who knows what she’s going to say but the market’s going to be anticipating or maybe not even anticipating just trading that the fact that she’s there on Friday again,” he says.

Cattle on Feed Friendly
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report was friendly with the on feed number at 99.5% of a year ago, placements at 92.7% and marketings at 94.5%.

The placements number was the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996, so bullish overall.

He says, “This is basically this is going to calm the market down a little bit from Friday’s episodes and basically say hey we still have a generally historically tight supply here for a while now. So that’s the basic take-home message. The on feed there’s nothing huge in it you see the numbers continuing to grow in the North which is not a huge surprise we have the feed around here we grow.

The steer to heifer quarterly breakout showed steers at 63% of the total and heifers the balance, down 1%.

Kooima says the data backs that up but the drought map may change that.

“It’s like a slow progression like this whole cycle has been going on here the last few years anyway. So that’s just the progression of the heifer retention moving forward too and how we’re going to rebuild this herd it’s just going to be awfully slow. So, yes a little bit is happening but it’s not happening in the places where it needs to happen,” he adds.

Cash Market Steady
The cash market was mostly steady at $248 and $388 dressed.

At first glance that is disappointing but Kooima says, “However, I’m going to twist that a little bit because we, yeah, $248 happening there late Thursday, then $248 at the beginning of the market on Friday as well. And there’s a. point there here at least in the North where they actually pulled that $248.”

Then the packers came back in after lunch and renewed bids at $248 and feed lots regained their leverage even with the break in the futures.

“So some of the guys that passed the $248 in the morning were feeling a little bit oh no we missed what happened here but they were luckily able to get that towards the end of the day. So, it’s kind of one of those psychological yes $248 wasn’t the best but it came after the huge collapse in the futures which tells you the numbers are tight,” he says.

Is the High In the Cattle Market?
Still there are many in the trade saying the highs are in on the futures as confirmed by last week’s lower weekly closes.

So the market, according to Kooima, will need some bullish news in the form of higher cash to retest or take out those record highs scored last Tuesday.

The other key will be whether or not beef demand stays strong.

Is Beef Demand Holding?
Kooima says that is a tough subject but he says some of the higher priced cuts have been coming down in price while ground beef has been slowly grinding higher.

“The basic principle of demand is that if you have a product, you keep inching up that price higher and higher and higher because it’s moving. It’s moving. You’re going to retract the prices when you see the lack of movement. Two weeks ago, we had ground beef at all times high, which would tell you that things are great but last week we did have to backpedal just a little bit,” he explains.

That tells him that there is some push back especially as this is the best time of the year for demand.

“How I view it is that we’ve maybe reached a price point now where these consumers are trading down proteins,” he adds.

Hogs Bounce But Can They Hold?
Lean hog futures are higher after nine lower sessions and new lows for the move. So will the bounce hold?

Kooima says, “When I write down the product, the cutout level every day in the cash, Friday, it jumped out a little bit more that, okay, You have the cutout closing over 99 cents late Friday. And you have June. within a few dollars of it. July and August have a little bit of a premium, but where is our premium for these summer months? Historically, we always go into tighter numbers, just even on a normal year. But this year we’re dealing with all that disease issues. So I guess I’m going to look at a price point better than where we’re at right now. Where’s our premium? Let’s get those premiums back in those summer months.”

He says chart wise the market finished a three-wave theory to the downside.

“The first break was about $7 back a few months ago. Middle break was about $9, and this last one was about $7 as well. So hopefully we’re seeing a little bit of a technical action here where we can push this market up a little bit.”

He says the key is for slaughter to start slowing down and responding to the increase in disease being reported.

His theory is when disease hit six to eight months ago the large players did a great job of backfilling with Canadian isoweans.

Corn, Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
Grain markets continue to see wheat pulling up the corn due to weather concerns in hard red winter wheat areas ranging from drought to frost over the weekend.

However, corn may have a difficult time building on last week’s higher week as planter get rolling.

Plus, Kooima says with last week’s peace talks with Iran the funds decided to blow out of a good chunk of their long position.

“You know, they got out of quite a bit, 50, 60,000 on both sides of the beans and the corn. So, but yeah, it’s a big, long growing season
here in front of us,” he says.

However, if crude oil prices stay high it will lead to inflation which may bring some funds back into buy the grains.

“I think that’s part of their backbone of purchasing the grains the way that they have. And they just respectfully got out of some positions last week, because, yeah, when you see the crude oil have $10, $12 down days, too, you certainly want to lighten up the load a little bit. But inflation is for real. It’s maybe not as big as what people anticipate, but every month one that comes out, it’s higher than a year ago. If crude oil stays elevated the way that it is, we know how long that takes to finally trickle down into the gasoline prices anyway. So then inflation to me is pretty real,” he explains.

Has the Cattle Market Finally Topped on Fear of Border Reopening? Grains Fall as Strait Opened

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 15:54:44 GMT

Markets started Friday lower except for cattle but after 10:00 am Central Time the cattle futures tanked.

Cattle Bounce Early
Cattle futures were slightly higher early on Friday in tandem with the stock market soaring into record territory and plunging crude oil futures with word the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that provided and early bounce for cattle after two down days tied to profit taking but then the market crashed.

He says with prices at record highs the risk is high.

“We’ve got an on-feed report coming up with 100% on-feed estimate, and we are $50 higher than where we were last year on the same cattle on-feed. So we’re at some impressive levels here, Michelle.”

Is a Top In the Cattle Market?
The cattle market was overbought which triggered some profit taking and with futures tanking on Friday it will confirm a lower weekly close and reversal off of record highs.

So will that also confirm a top in the cattle market?

Varilek says, “That’s going to be the question here because it it looks like hey look at the time of year we’re in we’re at the time of year we can put a high in charts almost look like it you know we drove through make contract highs closed all the gaps and then what was the encore not much we drifted a little bit lower. So, for about the you know 75th time we’ll try to call a top in this market but it I don’t know that we want to try to do that it’s just the potential is there for it you know,” he says.

April live cattle futures did get over $250 and the contract was slammed with a bunch of deliveries as well which is bearish.

“We’ve got 20 deliveries and three retenders on the market so we are just seeing that starting to act a little bit more sloppy here,” he adds.

Line in the Sand for Funds is $243
The line in the sand on a technical basis for the funds to defend their longs is $243 on the June live cattle chart says Varilek.

“Funds don’t sell highs. They don’t buy lows. Once the chart starts to flip and their signals start to go off, whether it’s crossing moving averages, whether it’s coming off of being overbought, then they start to unwind positions. And it kind of sounds like around that $243 area on the June is
the spot that they’re looking at,” he says.

As of mid-session that low had held but for how long?

“There’s the old saying never be short June cattle in the month of May. Yes we’re in different times now you know it’s going to be wild as high as we are but that’s that’s how the market could feel so long story short $243 is a spot that I would think that we need to hold for that,” he adds.

Fear of Border Reopening
Fundamentally what has spooked the market is the fear of USDA announcing the border reopening as Secretary Brooke Rollins will be announcing the ground breaking of the New World Screwworm facility in Texas on Friday morning.

The fear is she could also announce the resumption of Mexican cattle imports.

Varilek says, “I mean, will there be an announcement? Will there not? We’re just kind of all hands on deck, kind of watching and wondering what she’s going to say. So going down for some groundbreaking of the facility. But you just would expect that she’s going to say something.
Okay. What kind of plan are we going to softly open a port and get some cattle coming across? And I think that’s what we’ve been talking about for a couple of weeks. So it’s not brand new, but I think that’s our expectations is that she will say something.”

He thinks the timing is odd as the weather is getting warmer which more easily allows the fly to migrate North versus the winter time.

However, it won’t be as big of an impact as feared due to the staggered reopening and the fact Mexico has developed its own feeding capacity.

“You know, they’ve been able to kill the cattle down there and ship the meat up here. So they may not be as eager to send near as many numbers as what they had planned before. So I feel like it’s negative to the market, but maybe not as negative as it probably used to be months ago.”

Cash Disappoints
Cash trade also developed on a light basis on Thursday at $248 live and mostly $388 up to $342 dressed, which is steady money with last week but a disappointment to the market.

“I mean, it was last week. It was these $248 bids and only one regional out there getting some $250, maybe a little disappointing. And I think everybody wanted that round $250 number so we could just feel good about it. It would have traded if it hit. Packers really dug their heels in and they’re sitting at $248. And now we have some sloppy trade this week. A lot of $248 starting to trickle around. I know several people have taken it and a couple dollars off of $250 is still a great price. These cattle are going to probably make some money up here because we’ve got extra days on feed. We’re making them bigger. Hard to say pass on that.”

Cattle on Feed Report
The market was also seeing some positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed report which is expected to be somewhat bullish.

The on feed estimate is 100%, placements at 93% and marketings at 94%.

“The South placements are going to be much lower and that’s, what’s really pulling this down. So, so that feels okay. You know that, Hey, when we’re. We’re still seeing the tight numbers, the on-feed number.”

Next month that could change as some of the feeder are being moved off grass and wheat pastures early due to drought.

Feeder Cattle Cash Index Hits Record High
This week the feeder cattle cash index hit a record high of $379.09 which is also supportive.

“That’s been strong. And feeders have been what’s bailing out this market. You know, that’s still the case.”

Lean Hogs Make New Lows
Lean hog futures are down a 9th day and making more new lows for the move but will the market find support soon on the charts?

Varilek says, “Hogs are trendy and it’s making a third leg lower. So Elliott Wave people, chart people, you might look at that and wonder, okay, so when it holds, you almost need to wait for that confirmation before you can kind of really jump into that market. Let it trend lower here. I think that cash and cutouts have been a little bit sloppy here looking for that to get better I think here rather soon.”

He bases that on the disease issues in the herd and eventually that will produce a marketing hole.

Grains Tank as Strait of Hormuz Opens
The grains are all lower on Friday taking out war premium with the Strait of Hormuz opening back up.

Varilek says, “Crude oil down $10 here today. Grains did put a little bit of premium on for that, and now we’re just taking that off. The equities are impressive how they can rally on back. So, as of now we’re feeling this war is going to stop or get better but not super confident. And wheat could not take out the April highs so it saw some profit taking and so is the rest of the grain complex.”

Can Record Fed Cattle Futures and Cash Trade Continue?

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:09:39 GMT

Cattle and hogs were lower early Monday then recovered. Grains were mixed with soybean lower and corn and wheat higher.

Live Cattle Make New Contract Highs
Live cattle futures made new and all-time contract highs on Friday with the April contract closing above $250.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market started off lower on Monday with bearish outside markets, like skyrocketing crude oil, but quickly turned mixed.

So, he isn’t concerned about the initial consolidation.

“I mean, you’ve got an overbought market. You know, actually, the stock market has firmed up a long ways here, but you got crude oil up $7.50. And some of those things, you know, cause, I think, give the market some reason to pause here a little bit.”

Cash Higher on Friday on Light Volume
The other reason he thinks futures are sound is tied to the cash trade.

While he calls it disappointing, cash was steady to higher on Friday on light volume.

The volume in the North was at $248 but with a few trades at $250, which is an all-time high. Dressed prices ranged from $385 to $389, steady to $4 higher. The South ranged from $246 to $249, mostly $248 to $249.

The previous cash record for the 5-area weighted steer was $246.91, scored the week of February 23, 2026 and last week’s cash trade was $244.96, so that could be exceeded.

“Some of us got $250 in the north to a regional packer. It wasn’t widespread at all. None of the majors ever bid it. The rest of the outfit seemed like it was more like $248 or pass. And so everybody, most everybody passed. And then there was a little bit of trade in Kansas Friday at $249. And then there was kind of unusual, but there was some trade in Texas on Saturday at $248. So, you know, coming in with April cattle above $251, Yeah. You know, maybe we’re a little over our skis here with futures if the cash is only going to be $248 only. Right?”

Negotiation volume the previous week was nearly 81,000 head so the packers may not have needed cattle right away.

Cash Cattle This Week?
However, it won’t take long for packers to need inventory, so he is optimistic about a higher cash tone this week.

“I think this week will be interesting because we maybe maybe you’ve got the line of scrimmage here pretty, pretty tight now. So you’ll have a packer or at least several of them that are going to be quite close to the knife and are going to need to buy some cattle. You got a producer that maybe carried a few cattle over and still some of the producers still fighting with this deal of well the cattle actually don’t really even make any money at $250 believe it or not.”

He says some of the yearlings had extremely high break evens so there is some resistance on the part of the seller. So, he says it will be interesting to see who wins the battle this week.

“I guess I’m going to go with what’s been working. And what’s been happening is that the feedlot has still maintained leverage. So I think there’s a shot we’ll be a little bit higher. Let’s go $252. I don’t know. Maybe that’s a little bit optimistic, but I’ll take my shot that we’re going to be a little bit better. But it won’t happen until late in the week. And I think it’ll be better because the packer is going to have to chase it because it’s that time of year where you expect to do beef business. And they got to be a reliable, you know, they got to be a reliable producer for that,
too, as well, or a resource for that.”

Futures Keep Climbing?
So with higher cash Kooima thinks the live cattle futures could keep climbing.

“I still think we’re in a window of time here of 30 to 45 days where cleaning up the old crop yearlings. You know there’s a few big cattle but we don’t have the weight problem that we had three four weeks ago and as you’re going into the front of these front end of these calves that aren’t hardly fat. I just don’t think that the feedlot’s going to be in have any urgency at all to sell as these cattle are barely at replacement cost,” he explains.

JBS Strike Settled
The union at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, Co. also settled over the weekend.

Kooima says that is slightly friendly for the market even though the employees were back to work last week.

“I think that the reality of it is I don’t think anyone is very surprised. I think we had this conversation at the very beginning of this thing, Michelle, that realistically, is this going to really go anywhere? I mean, every other plant signed off on the same deal. JBS isn’t going to make a special deal for one facility. And so I don’t think anyone’s terribly surprised in the fact that they had gone back to work basically anyway last week. It’s not bearish because it does mean that that Greeley plant is going to have to get after it and do some procurement of cattle that they wouldn’t have been doing two weeks ago. But again, I think anticipated.”

Feeders Not Making Contract Highs
While feeders have made new highs for the move they have not made new contract highs like the live cattle.

Is that the fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle soon?

“I believe in some of these old sayings like feeders are the leaders. Certainly the feeder cattle have led us through a great big part of this bull market cycle that we’ve been in lately. One could argue that feeder cattle, you know, there’s something called cattle crush. You take the price of the feeders against when they’re going to be fat, balance in the equation what the corn price is. Anyway, the crush has and has been consistently for over a year shown that either the feeder cattle are too high or the fats are too low. So maybe some adjustment in that crush
spread where the feeders had gotten themselves out. But I also think certainly the border being potentially reopened at some point, is part of it,” he adds.

Hogs Disappoint
Lean hog futures made new lows for the move early Monday.

The deferred lean hogs posted lower weekly closes last week and April was only up slightly as the market has continued to underperform according to Kooima.

“To me, the overall fundamental news of the hogs is more positive than reacting. Underperforming is a polite way of saying that I don’t understand it. For me, that’s how I feel. I continue to hear. PRRS talk, breakouts, train wrecks at a number of farrowing facilities that a lot of guys in my area source pigs from. You know, it looks to me like the supply of hogs for the summertime is still going to be a little tighter than expected because of those disease problems. You know, it could be that we continue to fret about global demand. Whether or not we’re doing anything to get along any better with China sure doesn’t appear like it.”

The charts are also beat up he says, “This is new lows for June hogs. The nature of hogs would be that they’ll fool me again, maybe, and now they’ll catch. But to me, fundamentally, we should be able to. to trade $110 to !112 in the summer. We’ll see.”

Grains Correct
Corn and wheat are higher on Monday with soybeans lower in correction mode with the Iran conflict back on the front burner and crude oil up nearly $8.

Corn may be chasing higher wheat and crude oil and trading geopolitics again.

However, corn has corrected over 30 cents off the March 9 highs so it may just be a short lived correction says Kooima, especially with ending stocks still over 2 billion bu.

Meanwhile, soybeans are lower with concerns that China is supplying military weapons to Iran and that could be a sticking point for the mid-May meeting between the two leaders.

“If this goes back into a sustained conflict that might even include you know reparations with China,” he says.

Plus, Kooima thinks soybean oil is trying to divorce itself from the whole energy trade and put in a high last week.

Cattle Test Contract Highs on Strong Cash, Fade Border Talk: How High Will Prices Go?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:21:18 GMT

Cattle and soybeans are higher early Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Cattle Test Contract Highs
Cattle futures were strong out of the gate Friday with many of the live cattle futures once again making contract highs and other contracts are testing those chart areas.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.

“Cattle have been very strong. They’ve been overbought for a significant amount of time. And yeah, bumping on some of these contract highs. Some months are breaking through. And when some of the front months were making contract highs, the deferreds were kind of left in the dust, and now here in the last few days, more confidence in the back just continues to push higher. The resilience of this market is just very impressive.”

He says the market has shook off plenty of negative news including the Iran war, possible Mexican border reopening, closure of the Lexington, Neb. plant and the JBS plant strike at Greeley, CO.

When Will the Cattle High Hit?
Varilek says the market is getting hard to protect as many producers and market participants are waiting to see if the market is topping.

“I think there’s a lot of open inventory out there, guys that don’t have cattle hedged. And we’re just waiting. So whenever there is that official rollover, don’t know when it is. Everybody would love to know. And everybody says, call me if you think that is going to happen. That list is a thousand people long. So I don’t know that I’m going to get everybody called when that hits,” he says.

Higher Fed Cash Push
The futures have been pushed by the cash market which was up $9.26 last week on the 5-area weighted average.

“The way that it rallied was very impressive. It wasn’t just a few regionals out in front. We’ve got a couple of majors out there leading this cash market and for a couple of weeks in a row here now, coming in and grabbing entire show lists and the right kind of strength behind cash markets. So that helps a lot,” And he explains it provides the avenue to clean up the show lists and pull down the weights.

Producers have regained leverage but will it continue to push cash higher this week?

“Going into this week I think the thoughts were we’re gonna ask $252 but if the bids start coming out at $250 give me a call and there might be a little bit of interest there so I think anything $250 or higher, we’re feeling good. And it’s going to have to take that. I don’t feel like we’re going to move cattle less than that, especially with the strength that we’ve seen on the board here.”

Feeders Regain Leadership?
The feeder cattle cash index is back going higher and so will cash strength help pull the futures into new highs?

Varilek says, “These feeders have been the leaders for the last couple of years during this rally. And I think recently there was a small window here where a few of the cattle buyers were telling me, hey, I think there’s some soft. trade happening here and it’s easing up just a little
bit maybe not as strong that’s about all you had to say it must have encouraged the rest of the buyers to show up and we’re you know back off to the races got another you know projecting the index up another $2.40 here today and giving us that confidence.”

Plus, as planting ramps up there will be fewer cattle and buyers at the sale barns.

Mexican Border Reopening Soon?
The other headwind is continued talk the Mexican border might slowly start to open to cattle imports in a few weeks.

However, so far it hasn’t spooked the cattle market.

“Well, I think there was probably a few guys sitting on their hands waiting for more details there and now here we sit with kind of the same information, not a lot. So they might have to reenter and jump back in and get some inventory. I like what I’m seeing. To get to contract highs,
it’s not out of reach here,” he adds.

When the border does reopen it will be staggered and start in the far west ports but Varilek anticipates an announcement soon.

“You know, maybe it’s a staggered open here in a couple of weeks. And it’s like, OK, I just haven’t heard anything new yet on that story. I think that it is and I think that they probably will. I think we have a lot of measures in place to help prevent this. It is screwworm. It’s not hoof and mouth disease. It’s a little bit of a different cookie here, something that we should be able to try to manage. I don’t think it’s as big of a disaster as what some of the news is,” he states.

Plus, he says Mexico has learned how to deal with those cattle and are running those plants 24-7.

“They don’t have the regulations that we do here. They can ship us a lot of beef, just import us the beef, and they’ve got a self -sustaining industry down there. We can ship them corn. We’ve got a lot of cheap corn here. So that’s what I see.”

Hogs Correcting
Lean hogs saw a pop at the beginning of the week on news of FMD in China but have corrected since than and the action has been disappointing according to Varilek.

“One of our lead hog analysts here said, yeah, hogs suck. You know that that’s how what our attitude really is. We feel like we’ve got news that could rally these these hogs we we’ve got new PRRS outbreaks happening. I mean the disease is still there and so when we’re in the heart of
production we hear those stories,” he says.

Still hogs have not been able to turn around but he thinks its just a matter of time.

“I think that these hogs in these summer months can really take off here yet. So still holding out hope.”

Corn Removes War Premium
Corn futures are lower again on Friday on follow through selling and are working on a lower weekly close.

The market is taking out war and inflation premium according to Varilek.

“The energy rally that caught a lot of attention across agriculture markets and grains really benefited from it. You know, got to some levels, gave us some opportunities. Hey, to say, hey, I actually can look at some prices that might work here. That was fun. Now that we’re in the mood of, OK, we’re having ceasefire talks, we’re going to meet with Iran in Pakistan, Israel just kind of maybe coming to the table as of this morning.
We’ll see. But I think that’s starting to pull some of that premium out.”

Plus, he says the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks in the WASDE was a reminder of the large corn inventory in the U.S. with basis weaker than normal.

Soybeans Rally with Meal and China Hopes
Soybeans were higher again on Friday morning and have been strong all week getting some help from higher soybean meal as spreads are unwound with bean oil.

The other supportive feature is China and hopes for large purchases announcements in mid-May at the trade meeting between President’s Trump and Xi.

Live Cattle Follow Skyrocketing Cash, JBS Plant Strike Ending: Hogs Rally on FMD in China

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:52:16 GMT

Live cattle were higher feeders two sided with hogs sharply higher early Monday. Corn and soybeans were trying to hold gains as wheat fell.

Live Cattle Hit Contract Highs
Live cattle were higher early Monday with deferred contracts making new contract highs.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.

Cash Skyrockets
Cash trade was higher on Thursday at $245 to $246 in the South, up $8 to $9 and the North traded $245 live and mostly $385 dressed, up $13.

“Absolutely this cash market even with the Greeley plant being closed and even with all the uncertainty going on with the geopolitics and all the other stuff cash was basically $245 in fact there was some $246 bid around here on Saturday, the day before Easter. So that’s pretty impressive.”

He says show lists are very tight in the North, weights are falling and the backlog of big cattle has been worked through.

“Now all of a sudden you’re in between crops of cattle mostly the yearlings are gone and the calves aren’t fat yet even though the weather has been ideal.”

Cash Higher Again This Week?
So will cash trade be higher again this week with feedlots regaining leverage?

Kooima says, “I think yes. I think most everybody’s kind of got $250 in mind this week, and I think we’ll get it. And it’ll probably be led by the North. So it’s kind of weird to me how the packer really lost his leverage last week.”

He adds that the market has already exceeded his expectations and could shoot all the way up to $260 before it runs out of gas.

Greeley Plant Strike Over?
Over the weekend the strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado ended and so the plant will be killing cattle on Tuesday according to Kooima.

“I think they might get 3,500 cattle dead tomorrow as the union has agreed to go back to work and while they continue to negotiate. So not unexpected. We kind of heard this was coming last week. But of course, that’s going to force that outfit to have to buy a few cattle, we think anyway. And then that should help press the thing toward $250.”

The union went back to work despite their demands being met but Kooima is fairly sure the strike is over for good.

“The back story of this had been that, well, this is a deal, an agreement that all their other plants had already signed on to. And so, you know, a lot of us on the sidelines were thinking like, well, what do you expect JBS to do to make a different deal for Greeley? You know, maybe there’s some small concessions with some benefits or something, but to say that they were going to reopen that whole thing. And then of course, you know, the union leader has of this particular union has a reputation of, enjoying strikes. And so, you know, you wondered about it. I would say that you can’t completely say, okay, no worries at all. But for me, I’d be, I’d be 80% sure that they’re probably back to work to stay,” he explains.

How Long For Greeley to Return to Normal?
So how long will it take to get Greeley back to full capacity?

Kooima says, “I’m guessing, but the boots on the ground there, they think maybe, you know, capacity is 5,400. But I don’t know if there’s a plant
in the universe that’s killing it capacity with this tight supply. The talk was that they maybe could get back to where they were, which is around 4,800 to 5,000, maybe as soon as two weeks. So we’ll see. Probably depends on the margins and the profitability, too. That’ll probably incentivize them, give them a lack of incentive to get real aggressive if the packers kind of lost his margin here on this last last last move here.”

Feeder Cattle Sloppy Fearing Border Reopening
The feeder cattle market has not made new highs like the live cattle and it fact Kooima says was trading two sided and sloppy on Monday.

It is likely the fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle and USDA Secretary Rollins has changed her stance when that event will take place and retreated on how much of threat New World Screwworm (NWS) is to the U.S. cattle herd.

So, Kooima says its more likely within the next few weeks.

“Personally I am really tired of this deal. I think they’ve made so much out of it. This is something that’s treatable. This isn’t mad cow disease. This is a worm. Ever heard of IVAMEC? So her narrative changed in that they think maybe now it’s time to do a gradual reopening. They’d
start way on that west one there, Sonora, the one in New Mexico. They’re 800 miles literally from the nearest incident of screwworm fly.”

However, he says the Mexican cattle industry has built feed yards and packing capacity and is making money so the number of cattle coming across the border may be less than expected.

“They’ve tripled their kill capacity because they’re killing cattle 24-7 instead of eight hours a day for five days. So we may never go back to where
we were. In fact, I doubt very much that we ever will, you know, back to that 1.3 million head a year. But for my money, I don’t know. I think I’d just soon know where they are instead of having to absorb all their meat into our consumption and wondering exactly what it is. But that’s just me,” he says.

Plus he says the market has rallied $23 in three weeks and filled the chart gaps, so it is overbought.

Hogs Rally on FMD in China
Lean hog futures were also higher on Monday with news that China has cases of Foot and Mouth Disease in two provinces.

Kooima says, “Those kind of headlines really will spark it. Obviously, China has been noticeably absent from our export business here because it feels like they’ve got their whole industry back, you know, through their disease cycle and after low productivity, high productivity. Now, I don’t know if FMD is necessarily quite the like PRRS risk or, you know, all this other stuff. But yeah. For now, it’s given us a pretty good headline bounce.”

He adds that disease problems in the U.S. herd are also causing the feeder pig market to rally.

“Everybody’s talking about the disease problems here in the United States as well. PRRS, some new strain. It seems like it never fails. You can only go a year or two before something else happens. So I know these guys that are buying feeder pigs are really chasing the market.”

Corn, Soybeans Struggle to Hold
Corn and soybean futures are struggling to hold slight gains with the wheat market lower and uncertainty tied to war headlines and the energy market looking for direction.

“If you’re bullish you better hang your hat right on that post because that’s I don’t see a lot of other stuff to hold the market except what the weather is going to be this summer and nobody knows what will happen with that,” he states.

Seasonals are a little stronger during the planting season but he says the cash basis levels on corn in the North are weak even around ethanol plants.

“Basis is really weak 40 to 50 under tells me there’s all kinds of old crop corn left. So, let’s give it a chance here the next two weeks let’s hope we bounce a little bit,” he adds.

Cattle, Hogs Fall With Equities: Corn, Soybeans Lifted by Crude Oil

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 15:43:29 GMT

Cattle and hogs were both lower early Thursday. Corn and soybeans were slightly higher with wheat lower.

Cattle Futures Correct
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Thursday. Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle had three higher closes and finally got above some chart resistance on Wednesday.

However, the futures are trading back below that area with the weight of the lower equity markets.

“This last week and a half, we’ve been tied to the equity market. You can almost put a chart of crude oil up and the stock market lower over there. And that’s usually how the cattle market will go in the morning. And it’s been a lot of gaps, whether they’re lower or higher. But I do think we have a little bit of a two tiered approach in the cattle. Yes, equities lower this morning we have the war rhetoric a little bit higher especially later afternoon yesterday, so that is the culprit,” he explains.

Into Chart Resistance
The futures are also into chart resistance.
“You can draw a little bit of a downtrend line on feeders and fats we hit our head on there on Tuesday. Then yesterday we hit it a few times and had a pretty good close. But unfortunately with the equities doing what they’re doing now you have a chart that looks a little weak that we couldn’t propel up through that downtrend line,” he adds.

Feeders Watch Corn and Cash
The higher corn market has been a slight headwind for the feeder cattle futures as well as the risk off in the equity sector but Kooima says cash is moving back higher in the auction barns which is supportive.

“This week also you’re seeing southern barns $8 to $10 higher, as much as $15 higher. So, I think that’s just the number situation in the tight supply,” he says.

Higher Fed Cash This Week?
Fed cash has been non-existent so far this week and may not trade until after the Cattle on Feed Report Friday.

Kooima says last week cash was $5 lower as packers had the leverage with their kill cuts, but the volume was light and show lists were carried over. So far packers have not used the heavy weights against producers, so he is hoping packers have to bid more aggressively this week.

He says $1 to $2 higher would be a real victory. “Up until yesterday, you’re thinking that, hey, let’s try to get $3, $4, $5 better on cash just by judging where the April futures track, it is typically over $3, $4 above that. But yeah, you’re going to get a little regression today with the action of the marketplace. Packers are probably going to wait until after the on feed report,” he says.

The Cattle on Feed Report will compare to a year ago and the tightest numbers ever so the trade guess for placements is around 100%, on feed at 99% and marketings at 92%.

Packer Kills Cuts, JBS Strike
Packers had regained some leverage cutting kills and that has pushed Choice boxed beef values above $400.

The market has also absorbed the JBS plant strike in Greeley, CO as the plant has been dark the last two weeks, while cattle were diverted to Grand Island, NE and Cactus, TX plants.

Kooima says packer profits have seen a $300 to $400 swing. “The packers aren’t going to just run away with that. They’re making $100, $150 on paper. But I think they want to have maybe a few weeks of that to really get themselves in the black. And then I think they’re going to be forced to be like, all right, let’s try to make some money here. And we’re not too far away from a spring demand event, but that’s a couple of weeks down the road potentially. But those are something that’s something that we’re going to keep our ear to the ground on and just, hey, if there’s some Saturday kills starting to show up, I think that leverage swings right back to the producer.”

Hogs Consolidating
Lean hog futures were lower early Thursday with cattle and the lower equity market and have been consolidating off the highs.

Kooima says hogs are usually more recession proof and ignore the equities but there is fund long liquidation with the technical damage that was done to the charts.

“Starting last week we kind of broke a little bit of an uptrend line the cash and cutout have been relatively flat especially the cutout it goes down to $98 hits it set on $100 and back and forth we go. The cash is a little bit better this morning and is about the highest we’ve had in two weeks. The open interest every day has been declining which tells me that some of the funds are just liquidating they’re not getting short they’re just coming out of some length,” he explains.

The market is also waiting for slaughter numbers and weights to start declining with the increasing disease problems.

“Weights are a little higher than a year ago. Our kill numbers are a little bit higher as well. Not much, but we keep kind of getting preached about numbers are going to get smaller. They should be tight now with the disease aspect. So what I’m going to be looking to hear from customers in the next little while to see if these packers maybe start actually taking off a Saturday kill in the hog world that’s extremely friendly because that’s going to bolster your cutout level to a higher level,” he says.

Corn and Soybeans Higher With Crude Oil
Corn and soybeans futures are higher early Thursday adding risk premium and following higher crude oil.

He says, “I think it’s all really tied to more of the energy marketplace. You look at soy oil, look at the crude oil and what that’s doing as well. That’s keeping some bidding underneath these price levels.”

After the massive liquidation on Monday the funds have been back in buying in corn and soybeans especially as the war in Iran heats up.

“Yesterday, we kind of saw a little bit more of what’s really going on over there, as Israel is also attacking without the U.S. knowing. So I think the funds are kind of taking on that and saying, this thing is going to go on for a while. The damage has been done. Now we got oil.
Gas fields exploding. The infrastructure is going to take a long time to repair. So I think these funds are kind of in it just for a little bit more of a long haul,” he explains.

The funds are also buying grains and other markets on inflation fears as economic indicators are starting to show the evidence and impact of the higher energy markets.

“Anytime that you have a headline like that, the funds aren’t afraid to plow into some of those grains,” he says.

Can Cattle Recover and is the Greeley Strike Priced In? Row Crops Follow Oil

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 15:08:06 GMT

Cattle were higher early Friday with hogs and grain markets lower.

Cattle Bounce With Equities But Can They Recover?
Cattle futures found early strength Friday in tandem with the bounce in the equity markets and the pull back in the energy markets, according Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says the cattle were in lock step with the S&P all week and have seen a huge an ugly technical correction.

Live cattle futures took out the 100-day moving average and are still trading below that level. So, after that technical damage how much recover does he expect?

“I wish I could really confirm that it bottomed here and we can start to recover. For me, we’re still looking at some retracement levels that are below us yet. I’m still a little bit more worried about that. Generally on Fridays, it’s been head for the hills. We got a weekend coming. We don’t know what’s going to happen overseas. You know, at least that that news is a little quieter today and the outside markets are holding their own. That’s what’s helping the cattle a little bit because Fridays have been doom and gloom.”

He says looking at retracement levels on the feeder cattle chart he thinks there is more downside risk.

“It looks like feeders have another $15 room from here before they get to a halfway retracement level. So your support lines are just looking like they’re a little bit a ways underneath us yet, and I think that’s a lot with the anxiety that’s wrapped up around this market right now.”

With Greeley Dark, is the Strike Fear Priced In?
The other anxiety has come from fear of the Greeley, CO beef plant strike on March 16th. However, Varilek says the plant has been dark most of this week and JBS has been shifted cattle to other plants to be slaughtered.

“Yeah, I think there was a lot of cooler clean out that was happening on Thursday and Friday this week. So the word that we had heard is that they were not running. So, you know, and they’re going to be dark on Monday. So I think this is already in the market.”

The key now is how long the strike lasts. He says the market talk is four weeks.

“You can hear plenty of different rumors out there on how long it could be. But what you do like is that, hey, we’ve got some packers that are getting in the black a little bit here. That’s going to help maybe incentivize trying to get it reopened. I mean, we’ve got spring demand coming on us hot and heavy. We’re what, a week away from the first day of spring. I would think that that might help out. “

Packers Pressure Cash Market
In the meantime, packers regained some leverage against the producers and that led to lower cash trade this week.

According to Varilek most of it was $235 live in the South, which is $3 to $5 lower depending on the location. Northern live prices were also at $235, down $5 from last week and dressed prices were at $372, down $8.

“They’ve (packers) been able to drop this cash market and we have some willing sellers. Once the cash market started to slip, everything’s starting to feel uncertain with war happening. As I had alluded to, we have large cattle, big cattle and a lot of those cattle hit the show list here in the North. So producers were saying okay it’s time for me to clean up,” he explains.

Choice Beef Prices Near $400
With higher gas prices and economic fears there has also been talk about how that is eroding consumer beef demand. Throw on top of that the fact that Choice boxed beef is nearing $400. However, Varilek says so far he is seeing no evidence consumers are backing away.

“It’s a little early yet. It’s a little bit nerve wracking that, yes, these energy prices shot higher and fast. So the fact that it went up so fast, if we don’t see any relief here, say over a couple of weeks, two, three weeks, then it could start to show up. But immediately, no, we’re not not seeing the effects of it right away, in my opinion there.”

Hogs See Profit Taking
Lean hog futures are lower again on Friday with profit taking and fund selling as the summer month neared the contract highs earlier in the week. Varilek says the futures premium to the Lean Hog Index got too wide and so there is a correction taking place.

He says the market has rallied on talk of disease concerns but the slaughter pace will need to slow down as proof of lower supplies.

“We need to see some proof now that these numbers are tighter you know because the cash market’s not rallying as fast as uh as these funds want it to. So, couldn’t get through and make new highs, just didn’t quite have the confidence to do it. We’re finding ourselves on a pretty good correction here.”

Grains Correcting with Energy Markets, Farmer Selling
Grain markets are lower in tandem with the correction in the energy markets early Friday. Varilek says with the big run up this week it is understandable to see some profit taking heading into the weekend.

However, there has also been some farmer selling that has picked up.

“It was a nice opportunity for farmers and what that did is you saw Dec corn get right near $5 and a lot of farmers saying wow i can’t believe i got that high I should be looking at some selling opportunities here. Hearing lots of questions about what do I do with all of my old crop, starting to move some of that. So a little bit of pressure from farmer selling,” he explains.

However, if the Iran conflict flares over the weekend and crude oil shoots back up, the grains will likely follow he says.

Cattle Plunge on Economic Fears, JBS Plant Dark: How Low Do Prices Fall?

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 15:13:40 GMT

Cattle are sharply lower Monday with hogs following. Grains are higher.

Cattle Tank on Economic Uncertainty
Cattle futures are sharply lower on Monday with feeder cattle touching limit down at one point on economic uncertainty according to Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek. He says futures gapped lower on the open and traded sharply lower with live cattle gapping below key support at the 50 and 100 day moving averages. “Uncertainty is bearish cattle. That’s just what it is, folks.”

He explains the risk off selling in the stock market, specifically the S&P, and higher crude oil futures are heavily weighing on the market. “You’re looking at energy costs. The fear here would be that, you know, if you’ve got a budget, so much is going to go to put gas in your car to go to work or cost to heat your home, all the rest. You know, is that going to translate into creating some recessionary worry or you know disposable income changing,” he says.

Funds Liquidating
He says this isn’t a fundamental or a supply problem but fund managers are liquidating due to the fear in the market and the volatility. “You’re going to go like gee whiz i think maybe I’ll find some calmer water to swim in instead of trying to figure out you know day to day what’s going on here especially when so much of it is impacted by a 24/7 situation like we have here in the Middle East right now.”

JBS Plant Dark This Week
Also adding pressure to cattle futures is the news that the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO, will be dark this week. Kooima says, “I would say that they’ve reached a significant impasse in negotiations. The way the deal was set up, the way the agreement had been, we all know that the union had voted a couple of weeks ago already to strike but they were willing to keep working while they negotiated.”

However, the vote on Friday was to strike in seven days he adds, “They are required to give a seven day notice if they were going to walk out so that was the vote that happened on Friday afternoon they voted to walk out so they gave the management seven days notice manager said you know what don’t bother even coming in for those seven days so they closed at Greeley.”

He says their other major plants are going to kill Saturday, so that’ll make up a part of it, not all. Negotiations will resume and hopefully they will reach a resolution. However, he thinks with packers losing money it may give the packer leverage.

“I mean, it doesn’t take too much of an imagination to think that if you’re going to have a work stoppage, maybe now wouldn’t be such a bad time if you’re management. On the other side, though, you’ve got worries about, you know, can you retain your employees? You’ve got to be a reliable supplier of beef to your customers.” So he says it’s complicated.

Lower Cash Cattle
Cash trade also developed at lower money on Friday with mostly $240 paid in the South and North, so down $2 to $4 from last week. Some dressed trade at $$380 was also reported, down $3.

“I was kind of relieved that we could get $240. Bought a lot of cattle around here at “240. I’m kind of intimated with you here on that. I worry a little bit that we’re not killing the available supply. I know supply is tight, but is it this tight? These kind of slaughters that we’ve had the last two weeks, especially, my goodness. I mean, you would say that it was Christmas. I mean, that’s how light that kill has been. And if you look at the average weights, they’re big. We did sell some cattle at $240, which is lower, but at least we got some cattle sold.”

Futures Take Out Support
The live cattle futures took out major chart support on Monday so how much technical damage is done? Kooima says, “We gapped through the 50, the 100 day moving averages. Halfway back on April cattle is in that $225 range. And that’s another $3.50 lower than where the market’s sitting right now. I think we go at least there.”

He says he hopes the big futures discount to cash will eventually hold the market.

Hogs Fall With Cattle, But More Resilient
The hog markets fell with cattle futures Monday morning but have been more resilient than cattle because of the growing disease issues in the country.

“There’s another round of disease, you know, affecting isowean prices, feeder pig prices, you know, for what the prospects will look like for the kind of supply we all have for fed hogs in the summer when demand typically is quite good. So, you know, I think that that’s part of the reason why we’re here already,” he says.

However, the other supportive factor is pork is a cheaper protein than beef.

Grains Make New Highs for the Move
Grains markets were all higher Monday, although off of overnight trade. The markets have been hitting new highs for the move adding in inflationary fears says Kooima.

“A lot of it is higher crude oil. Plus, are we going to be able to get normal export activity out of that Middle East area or not with the Strait closed? Will the cost of fertilizer impact our new crop corn plantings? December corn is stronger than the old crop today. I’m sure that that’s part of the reason.”

However, he cautions that when crude oil starts to move the grain market could quickly retreat so he is suggesting putting in price floors with options.

How Far Will Corn Acreage Drop?
With concerns about getting the last 10% to 15% of fertilizer in place and with soaring prices there may be a switch out of some corn acres. How much?

Kooima says in Iowa many farmers can use manure so planting intensions won’t budge. But nationally, he is projecting 93 million acres of corn verses the 98.8 million planted last year.

“There’s some areas that will be 20% loss on some of the fringe parts of the corn belt, especially when you get a little bit south and then get into the southeast. Sorghum’s had a big rally. When you get in these areas that are subject to this rust and all this other disease stuff further south, they’ve really got hit with that. They’re probably looking for a reason anyway to get out of it, whether it’s fertilizer or not.”

Can Cattle Stay Resilient With the S&P Correcting: Grains Rally With Crude Oil

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 16:07:47 GMT

Cattle were lower early Friday, with hogs and grains higher.

Can Cattle Remain Resilient?
Cattle futures were lower on Friday morning in tandem with the lower stock market. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the uncertainty of the war in Iran has caused some reallocation of money this week. It has been coming out of markets like the metals, plus the DOW and S&P and going into especially crude oil which has seen a $20 rally this week.

Varilek says the correction in the stock market has broke the cattle futures several times but the market continues to claw its way back and close above key support on the charts. Can that continue? Varilek says, “So cattle market has been resilient. That is absolutely the word to use this last week because I think there was plenty of stories and uncertainty folding around in that market. However, there was somebody really protecting that market and there was plenty of rumors around who is doing this who is there a packer that short bought cattle? You know we don’t get to know that but it kept fighting its way back and now today getting this break. And I think this is finally, hey, we’re looking at a stock market that’s continuing to correct. The war is the front of the storylines all day here. And it just doesn’t look like that’s going to end real quick. I think that there’s just more that’s got to happen yet. It’s not going to be the we’re in and out. We got this job done. Good job, boys. Bring them home. Now it’s extending just more uncertainty and scared.”

Higher Gas Prices Hurt Beef Demand?
With crude oil up $20 in a week that is being seen at the gas pump by consumers. So is there fear about demand backing off for beef? He says, “Demand was such a slam dunk. Hey we’re gonna have such a great spring no problem everybody’s gonna grill, stock markets at record highs and now this just throws that little wrinkle in there. With energy prices surging you know you you can hear a few stories here and there well people are starting to line up the gas pump a little bit making sure they’re filled up and we get into bunker mode when some of this happens.” So it’s putting a question market around demand.

Plant Strike Uncertainty
At the same time is there still concern about whether or not the JSB plant in Greeley, CO, is going to strike? Varilek says they are supposed to vote today but the outcome is unclear. “I think everybody wishes we knew more about what’s happening with the Greeley plant. But yeah, the news, you get rumors that circulate around in this market and it’s fought it off. Great. But latest is that they’re meeting today, this afternoon, possibly.” He says it would be positive for the market if it gets resolved and would hopefully help bolster chain speed and cash trade.

“We might get some cash boost in the market as they might need to buy some cattle again. I mean that was kind of the rumor why the market was running a little bit because hey there’s some people that need some cattle. So, i think that would help us out and we would love to just get that story behind us because there’s so many other you know things that we got to focus on right now,” he says.

Who Has Leverage?
In the meantime, the packers have been throwing out low cash bids at $235 he says, to try to break the psychology of the market. So who wins out or blinks first?

Varilek says, “You know, this cash market isn’t, you know, feeling as good as it was. So we’ve got producers that are making cattle big. It’s paying us to do it as the feeders are high the feed has been cheap so I will just make them bigger. I think we’re finally getting to the point we saw some very light kills here as of recent and now the packer’s getting a little bit more leverage. We got the low ball $235 bids and then there was a few you know yards that were trying to get $240 yesterday could not
get it so we’ll kind of see who blinks first.”

However, he thinks the packers may have the leverage until the weights get cleaned up. “And that’s what needs to happen. So not feeling as great about our cash market here going into this week. And you hope some of it happens. Some of these guys get it cleaned up because if we don’t. get a big cash trade then there’s going to be more big ones next week on the show lists,” he adds.

Chart Support Needs to Hold
So far this week the 100-day moving average has held on the charts and so today the close will be critical. “This last break that we had, you know, last week, we’ve got some lows down there that are going to be pretty key support. You know, it could be a pretty important line below those 100-day moving averages. So you’re looking at, you know, $228.50 on the April,” according to Varilek.

Hogs See More Profit Taking?
Lean hog futures were lower on Thursday on profit taking but he says there is not much new to push the hogs lower. “I’m just a broken record. I think the disease stories are still out there. You get some horrifying news out of a place and it circulates around the market. So we hear about it. And I think that’s still the main thing, the tighter supply. I think the funds can still hold pretty good. If we start seeing some broken up trend lines, then it could happen to get a little bit worse, but I don’t see that happening for a while yet. I’m still feeling confident in some upside on the hogs.”

Grains Rally With Crude Oil
Grains are also up Friday morning with new highs for the move in both corn and soybeans. The buying by funds is an inflation play as crude oil makes new highs. “Yes, that is what is pushing these markets up. And it’s going to be a nice shot in the arm here. We’ve already got farmers starting to look at this and say, hey, I didn’t know this opportunity was coming. I thought maybe it would be weather or something but this is maybe something that the grains needed just to give us some opportunities to to do something,” he explains.

However, he doesn’t want to pull the trigger to quickly but says farmers need to start pricing some grain to help their balance sheets. “We’ll be watching the energy markets and the outside markets close.”

How High Could Grains Go?
However, if crude oil keeps rising to $100, how high could grains go as a follower? He says corn may have a shot at getting above $5 and the market is already above $12 on beans but says it is anyone’s guess.

But with money coming out of the equities it is finding a home in the grain markets. “It is good to have them on your side at least when they’re when they’re on the pushing it the way you want it and those charts are starting to look like somewhere if a fund was looking at it at some generally low historical prices say and we’ve got an uptrend happening that could be an easy place for them to try to go,” he adds.

Cattle and Grains See Risk Off Selling on Iran Conflict: Have Cattle Topped?

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:50:44 GMT

Cattle and grains futures are mostly lower early, with hogs rebounding after a lower opening.

Cattle See Early Pressure on Risk Off Selling Tied to Iran Conflict
Cattle futures were lower on the opening in reaction to the risk off selling in the financial markets and the higher dollar, which is tied to the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran over the weekend. That has also sent energy prices higher.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are reacting negatively to that uncertainty and had already started selling on Friday in fear of the increased tensions.

“The easiest dynamic is to look at what’s going on with the stock market whether you like it or not cattle futures have a tendency to to to follow some of those macro financials. Now the stock market is a lot better it’s still lower but it’s way better than it was and i think that might be contributing to a little bit of this comeback that we’re seeing on the cattle here early morning but yes the the whole issue of uncertainty. I think that the war issue or the whole conflict here with Iran, do I think that that is a game changer on the cattle? I don’t think that will be by itself because hopefully it doesn’t last very long”

He says eventually the conflict should be bullish cattle. “So, hopefully by the time we get here the next week and we’re talking again, that this is a little bit calmed down and we’re not worried so much about that anymore.”

Cattle Futures See Technical Damage
Cattle futures posted lower weekly and monthly closes on Friday and did some technical damage to the charts. Monday the market took out the 100 day moving average on the April live cattle and so that is an area of support Kooima is watching that needs to hold. “We’ve got a softer technical picture than we’ve had here since, well, around Thanksgiving.”

Kill Levels, Weights a Concern
Kooima says kill levels are also a concern with last week’s slaughter at only 516,000 head which is near COVID levels. At the same time weights are climbing. “I think that there are some feedlots that have been intentional about making cattle bigger you know i’ve heard that over and over well my break-evens are high. I could take a little less and still put 100 pounds more and still have more dollars. You know, that story. Replacement costs are very high. Feeds cheap. And on top of it, we barely had winter. So the performance of cattle here across the north especially has been amazing. You know, so we don’t feel very current here for a moment.”

Producers Lose Cash Leverage
That has led to producers losing their leverage in the cash market and saw declining prices through the end of the week. He says, “Cash was not good at $244, we sold cattle for on Thursday. And by Friday late, we were selling cattle at $240. Some places even a little less than that. Some $239 in western Nebraska. So, yes, the tone and the psychology, you know guys turned into pretty easy sellers. We’ll see how much that translates into this week. Definitely felt like leverage did flip here during the week last week.”

Fear of Strike at Greeley, CO, JBS Plant
There were social media posts that week that spooked the market with unconfirmed rumors that workers had voted to strike at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO. That situation is still not resolved according to Kooima. “I don’t know when they’re going to vote, whether they’re going to walk out or not. It’s a fluid situation. And I think no one will know until it happens, if it happens. My sense was is that the likelihood of that walkout is less now than what it was when this whole rhetoric began almost two weeks ago but we shall see.”

Is the Cattle Market Top In?
Kooima says he thinks there is a short term top in the futures market and the all-time highs may also be in. He is watching some critical chart areas for confirmation. “We’re going to struggle with the market here a little while. We’re in this stretch here where demand is not great. The packers got a little bit of leverage. Could April cattle get back to $225, which is halfway back in this leg up? I guess I could see that happening $225 ish. And then maybe if we get cleaned up, which I don’t think will take forever, we still don’t have a big supply of cattle, then I could very easily see like a replay of something like we did last year where we come into that May-June slot, that time period, kind of the new April, right? Because we’ve pushed that calving rate back so far. And then to see the market come back nicely as we see that improving demand.”

He says at the market gets closer to Mother’s Day he will feel better about the market turning around. “I think April cattle have to close above $238 to get the funds back in the market to take out the highs above $244. So we’ve got we’ve got a tall task here now to get the funds to to really have confidence in the market and the funds don’t like this uncertainty.”

Hogs Rebound as Funds Buy
Lean hog futures started lower and quickly turned back higher on fund buying and continued disease concerns. Kooima says, “The funds sure seems to be heavily engaged there. The fundamental story here from some of the hog guys that we talked to is we’re back on this disease topic and PERS, PEDV, and a lot of it. And I think that that’s getting some traction again in the market.”

He says it’s pretty remarkable the way they held together, given that collapse in the cattle.

Grains Make New Highs for the Move Then Collapse
Grains made new highs for the move and soybeans took out the November highs overnight before seeing risk off selling pressure tied to the Iran tensions and the higher dollar. Kooima says for soybeans the concern is that China is backing Iran in the Middle East conflict and that could cause them to back away from the April meeting.

“Epecially for China, they’re not a fan of this whole operation. I’m afraid sooner rather than later, where South America becomes a viable alternative for them to get their stuff from, then I worry that you’re going to start to hear, well, what about that supposed 25 million metric tons that they were going to get from us? How come they’re not doing that? This action makes me a little queasy. New highs for the move and then lower for the day.”

He says while he’s cautious on soybeans making a top, seasonally it is the time of year where corn can rally especially due to a weather problem. “It’s not the time of year usually where it pays to be real bearish, usually between March 1 and May 1 the market sees a little life,” he explains.

Cattle Start Higher Monday on COF Report, Cash: Uncertainty on Plant Strike, Tariffs Remains

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:30:16 GMT

Markets opened mixed on Monday but early in the session turned mostly higher except wheat.

Cattle Firm After Friendly Cattle on Feed
The cattle futures were higher early Monday rebounding from Friday’s lower close and a round of profit taking. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the USDA Cattle on Feed report was providing some support. The on feed number came in at 98% of a year ago, placements were at 95% which was below trade estimates and marketings were at 87%.

“Remember this is the second report now that is as compared to when the border had been closed. So the the Texas placement number coming in at 93% that’s 93% of a very small number of the total 98%, again, you get it, right? We’re placing against something that was very small back then. Now, the thing that is a little bit different and consistent with what it’s been is that the two northern states, Nebraska, on feed at 103%. They are easily the number one state now for cattle on feed. Iowa at 100 % on feed. One thing about good old Iowa here, I happen to notice our marketing figure was 115%, which is I’m really glad to see that.” That’s because he was worried some feeders are intentionally feeding these cattle to heavier weights with cheap corn and high priced replacements, plus good weather. .

He adds, “You know that Texas placement number is still 80% of the five -year average to get a little more perspective, even if how that works. So yeah, we got through that.”

Greeley, CO Plant Strike
The other news on Friday was the workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, CO did not strike but the situation has not been resolved. “They got through that first set of meetings on Friday, they’re making steps, but again, this could be posturing. I mean, they’ve set up sign -up sheets. So this is where you sign up if you want to get benefits if they go on strike. So it would seem like there’s some prep on the labor’s part, but again, you know, that can be so much posturing. Of course, they’re killing today.
I don’t know that there’s another meeting scheduled. These negotiations have been going on for more than eight months. So we’ll see. Let’s hope that they strike a deal and we can get on down the road. Any kind of lengthy stoppage there would be
very problematic. That’s a very big plant. JBS’s biggest one or one of their biggest ones at 5 ,400. So hopefully we can put this matter to rest by the time we talk next week, but I got a hunch we won’t. I think this is going to be an ongoing issue.”

Cash Higher Last Week
Cash trade was also higher last week, but for Kooima some what underwhelming as he had talked about the possibility of $250 cash. “I was real confident we were going to have $2.50 up and down the road, you know, or at least, you know, a little more of it. So I shouldn’t say that I’m disappointed. Basically, the north, we ended up with bids of $247, and that would have been one to $2 higher than the week prior. So that’s not so bad. And $247 is still a huge price. Pardon Pardon me, the south,
particularly western Nebraska, did trade some cattle at $249, late Friday. For them, that was actually a $1 higher. So I’d call the cash market still good, but maybe a little bit underneath the expectations.”

He says this week there are a lot of cattle carried over. However, there aren’t big numbers. “If we can keep Greeley out of the news, I’m going to say steady better. I do think that people are, you know, after galloping higher for three straight weeks and then last week’s trade was kind of like, you know, grudgingly higher, a packer that was trying to play a little more hardball. Kill cuts are still very real. I don’t know. I’m going to say steady firm and I hope I’m wrong.”

Tariff Concerns
So is the cattle market at all concerned that SCOTUS struck down the IEEPA tariffs? President Trump put new tariffs of 15% on over the weekend for all but USMCA partners, China and the EU because of the current frameworks. However, Kooima says the market doesn’t like uncertainty so he says the jury is still out regarding the reaction and a lot will depend on whether countries retaliate, plus the stock market reaction.

Hogs Rally a Fifth Day
Lean hog futures are up a 5th day on short covering. However, Kooima is still concerned that the market may have a difficult time rallying because of the big slaughter numbers. “We’re at an interesting spot here right now, you’re right, this fifth day up off the lows. This is 38 % retracement. I got the chart up above me here. Weights are big, cash was crappy on Friday down a couple bucks, product sloppy. It’s too many hogs. I mean, every day that slaughter is so big. We’ve got to have perfect demand, and I’m not sure we do. I think domestic demand is really quite good. Global demand, yeah, you know, not so much. And there, you know, the tariffs talk maybe gets to be something to be worried about, too. I don’t know. There’s a couple
of spots in the charts right here that I think are kind of critical resistance. My inclination would be to think maybe we would fail from here. I hope I’m wrong for the producers’ sake, but I don’t think we’re in a great spot fundamentally on the
hogs here at all, just because of the big supply.”

Corn, Soybeans Higher
Corn and soybeans have faded the concerns about retaliation regarding President Trump’s new tariffs or China back off the extra 8 MMT of soybean purchases as the SCOTUS ruling may have taken leverage away from the U.S. Part of the strength may be due to the Trump administration confirming the meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing on March 31-April 2. The other factor is soybean oil continues to make new contract highs on biofuels policy hopes.

“I think that that’s really the story there, the renewable fuel initiative here and the likelihood it will be positive. The feeling is that Washington indeed does need to throw a bone here to the row crop crop people, and that would certainly be a good one. So the new contract highs today on the bean oil helps for sure,” he says.

Cattle Futures Pause But Can $250 Cash Spark New Highs? Corn, Soybeans End Flat

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 22:15:54 GMT

Cattle end mixed on Wednesday, hogs extend gains. Grains ended mostly higher.

Cattle Pause Just Off Fresh Highs
Cattle futures paused Wednesday and consolidated under some new highs for the move scored on Tuesday when the cattle futures were working in higher cash trade. Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says futures are getting overbought and ran into another layer of chart resistance.

“I think yes to the chart resistance. You had some of the months. I’m looking at the April contract. You know, we gapped higher yesterday, got right up against the high that we had made here about two weeks ago and then pulled back. But really,
the pattern of the day, I didn’t feel bad at all about Michelle. We started out lower early, old saying from an old guy, bull markets start lower every day, and then they can’t keep them that way. We’ve all sat through these bear market deals where the market tries to rally early, only to see it erode and erode and you know it’s like watching a soccer game with stoppage time you just wish the market would close before it gets any worse right and so I thought all and all not a bad day.”

Higher Cash This Week?
Last week’s five area weighted average steer was at $245.62, up $4.31. However, there was already some cash trade this week at $249 in Texas and $250 in Iowa says Kooima. So he thinks both the North and South will see higher cash at $250 this week. “We’ve got leverage and you know, it’s three weeks in a row, sharply higher on the cash market. And I think we got a real shot at being higher again this week. So I would guess, knowing the packers, I wonder if they’re going to wait until after the Cattle on Feed report in hopes that maybe somehow that report’s bearish enough that they don’t have to chase. But I think a lot of asking prices are on that $2.50 mark. And I guess I’m going to stick to my guns. And I’ll say that. I think we’re going to get there.”

Markets Into Tightest Numbers
The market is into the tightest cattle numbers so packers are scrambling and that also gives Kooima ammunition for the prediction.

“I had felt that somewhere late in the first quarter was when our numbers were going to be the tightest. I mentioned on your program, too, I was a little worried about the breakevens and some of these yearling cattle are very, very high. You know, $250 or more. You know, there’s, the irony lost on me that you could you could get $250 and the cattle not make money. Now that we have reached these levels the the odds of us staying more current or being more willing sellers are also I think improved you know a lot of these a lot of the the feed yards have consciously added weight to the cattle to lower their break evens okay um and And that’s very evident.”

However, he says show lists up in the North are the shortest they have been, basically for this entire bull market cattle cycle and yearlings are hard to find. “And, of course, the South is still affected largely by, you know, the border being closed.”

New Highs?
Kooima thinks with higher cash the futures market will take a run at the gap area, “And then I find it hard to imagine that the market’s going to go right up to that gap for anybody that’s ever looked at a chart in their whole life. And then that’s going to be the magic number. That would be the first time. It’s not that easy. And so I wonder if we get close and fail or actually, I feel like maybe the odds are better that if this cash continues to perform like this, we might just take a run at taking a shot at taking those highs out. And maybe that’s a high that maybe you and I will be talking about for a while. So I feel like if this was a football game, I think we’re in the fourth quarter, okay, toward the end of this bull cycle, because I just worry that either a weight problem or something with the news of the economy or who knows, whatever, beef’s too high, if that rears its head again with some other attempt to change that. You got a border that could open. You know, I just, I like the market. I’m bullish, but let’s be careful up here. It’s been a heck of a move.”

Possible Greeley, CO Plant Strike
The market is also cautious ahead of a possible strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado. The vote on whether workers strike or accept the company’s offer will be decided on Friday.

Kooima says,"If you are a packer and you’re having this kind of a work stoppage, you know, it’d be one thing if you’re making $300 a head on everything you’re killing, but the opposite is the case. I mean, cattle are hard to find, you’re losing money on all the ones that you’re killing now. There is a terrible lot of formula cattle that go through there. That might impact her thinking a little bit. But, you know, it seems like in a way it’d be no better time for a work stoppage than now. So I don’t want to imply anything at all, but to me, the risk of at least a temporary work stoppage here. These negotiations have been gone on for over eight months, and they haven’t reached an agreement yet. So I know I’m watching it to see if there’s maybe a little bit of temporary negative news that might hit the market here over the weekend. I hope not.”

However, the knee jerk reaction will be negative as this is a 5,400 head plant and one of the biggest in the JBS system.

Cattle on Feed Positioning
The market is also gearing up for the USDA Cattle on Feed Report. Early guesses show placements down 4% and marketings also down 13%. He says the marketings number is no surprise. “Especially when you’re talking about less cattle on feed and then the fact that they’re just consciously making them, feed them longer, making them bigger. This is the second report that is a comparison to when the border has been closed. So, you know, you’re talking three or four percent less of a very small number of placements, just so everybody remembers that on feed at 98.5%. Also comparing to a smaller number, We’ll see what’s where that marketing number comes out. The guess, like you said, 87, I don’t know that the market, unless there’s some major surprise, I don’t think the market will spend a lot of times dwelling on the numbers unless they’re completely different than the guesses.”

Hogs Up a Second Day
Lean hog futures were higher for a second day on continued short covering. The market got oversold but Kooima says funds have been slow to get out of their massively long position. “You know, the funds really haven’t budged. Not really. I thought I thought maybe we’d see a big drop in the open interest here on this break. I guess that’s going to cut two ways. So tomorrow’s the third day up. I know that’s an oversimplistic way to look at it, but sometimes I overthink it. I think we’re going to learn a little bit more about the hogs tomorrow. If we can sustain a third day up against this downtrend that we just started here, then maybe I’ll feel differently. Right now I’m more inclined to sell rallies because I think that global demand has been not great. Domestic demand is good, but a lot of hogs coming at us here. And I think we’ve ran that, you know, disease story about as far as we can go. So let’s see what happens here tomorrow. If I had a guess it, I’d say open higher and fail, but we’ll see.”

Corn and Soybeans End Nearly Flat
Corn and soybeans ended nearly flat after early strength despite the rally in wheat and new contract highs in soybean oil. Soybeans made new highs for the move early but failed at resistance and Kooima thinks the market needs confirmation of China business before it can move higher. Additionally, soybean oil is rallying on optimism that EPA will submit proposed RVOs for biomass based diesel for 2026 to the White House this week for final rule and they will show a large increase in blending levels. However, he is fearful the market is getting ahead of itself. “You’d think the administration would be happy to throw a bone at the farmers here but the rally is built on hope and speculation. Let’s hope it come through.”

The corn market held against an emerging uptrend line but thinks it will need more good news to keep rallying. “We need to get thinking about tomorrow on the grains. We need to be thinking about how much, hopefully, less corn acres we
plant, maybe some weather risk. Maybe we’ll talk about this Drought Monitor showing how dry it is in the Eastern Corn Belt. In other words, we need to put this big crop, big acres problem that the corn has here for the last several weeks since that report and starting thinking ahead. Otherwise we’re going to struggle,” Kooima adds.

Cattle Futures Await Cash Push to Break to New Highs: Grains See Profit Taking

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 16:22:25 GMT

Livestock are leaning higher early Friday with grains mostly lower.

Cattle Recover Awaiting Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures are recovering from the lower day yesterday. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures have been chopping back and forth this week and need to take out last week’s highs on the charts to break out and to new highs. “I mean it had this big push behind it and we’re gunning for those gaps that are at the record high prices and thinking, okay, here we go. And then when we set sideways, we get a little bit antsy here and you start to get a little bit nervous. I think this week, I think there was plenty of people that were starting to teeter. Okay. I was feeling pretty confident now I’m more in the 50 -50 and I think that’s okay.”

Market Needs Higher Cash to Continue the Rally
The futures market is awaiting cash for direction and Varilek says higher cash above last week’s $245 in the South could help push the futures to new all-time highs.

“But what we would need to punch up there, I think is some higher cash. And the The good news is we’re in the time of the year when that can happen. So we had $245 in the South last week. I think that they can get it this week pretty easy, but I feel like they’re going to start asking some higher prices. So there’s a chance for that, you know, that cash to poke through. I get nervous when I’m relying on Southern cash, I guess, in general. But Just the feeling is that that could happen. You know, we’re our seasonal cash highs, second, third week of March, and we’ve got, you know, some good things to look forward to.”

He also believes Northern cash trade on fed cattle will be higher this week. “It was a little sloppy last week, you know. It was, okay, we’re above $240, we’re at $241. I’m going to sell a few just to kind of make sure this is real. Am I dreaming? And then $242, and I think that caught some cattle. As high as $244, and that would have been on unlimited numbers. Nobody could get the $245 up here. There were some rumors of that last week that there was a Packer there, but I don’t. I think that one was false. So It’d be hard, you know, for us to not, we’re not going to probably sell it more. We’re going to try to get those extra dollars there.”

The only concern he has is with excellent feeding weather carcass weights are huge and the packers may use that to try to regain some leverage. “Plus, we’ve got some kill cuts, you know, with the tight numbers. And with Lexington down, we’re still doing kill cuts. I mean, that’s just how emergency tight we were. So we’ve got a couple packers that’ll be closed on Monday for President’s Day, maybe just backing up these cattle more so they can crank it up when we get into March there.”

Cargill Ground Beef Plant to Close
News on Thursday indicated the Cargill ground beef plant in Wisconsin would be closing mid-April. However, he says it won’t have a market impact, especially because there is excess slaughter capacity. “But no, it shouldn’t affect anything. We’ve been able to handle any of these, you know, plants that are kind of closing and even the minor ones, because we’re still shipping cattle from here to Cactus, Texas. I mean, that’s just a regular thing going from north to south. And I don’t see any problems with it,” He does add that some old news on the possible strike at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO was part of the weakness in the market Thursday.

.Optimistic About Spring Demand and Rally
Varilek says beef demand is slow in January and February and so that is a bit of headwind right now but he is still optimistic about a normal spring rally as demand ramps up.

He explains, “January is always your lowest demand time of the year. And then February is kind of your close and you might get a little of tick for Valentine’s Day, but not much. But what we’ve kind of seen over the last few months is the big shift to the chuck and the rounds and the big drop in the rib eye rolls. And that happened a little bit more dramatic on a percentage basis than what it normally does. You know, the ribsdrop 25 percent, normally drop 20. And the chucks in the rounds really caught a big boost. So for me, I’m looking for that to shift. I mean, I’m feeling good. I don’t think that there’s negative news out there, or we have a black eye from any kind of a story on demand that consumers still want beef. And so I’m looking forward to
it. I still think that’s going to happen.”

And that is when Varilek thinks the futures will have the best chance of making new all-time highs.

Hogs Try to Recover
Lean hog futures were down six sessions and did some technical damage on the charts on fund liquidation and profit taking. However, Varilek says the market was also concerned about the U.S. pulling out of the USMCA as Mexico is the largest export market for U.S. pork and the U.S. also relies on Canada for feeder pig supplies.

He says, “It was such a nice, long, hard work uptrend and it felt good and then, you know, sharply lower, two gaps lower we’ve had in the chart here on the
way down. And yes, a lot of that is tied to the, you know, Trump’s starting to talk about trade deals again, thinking about pulling out of the USMCA and it’s makes the hog market a little bit nervous because they need Mexico. It’s a big customer for us and then you throw Canada in the mix too. I mean, the hog market needs those countries. So it was an automatic, okay, the funds need to probably liquidate some. We need to correct this market because we’re just a little bit scared of that kind of news. I mean, cash is as good as it’s been in a while. That feels okay. The cutouts may be a little bit sloppy, but it was just kind of a, okay, Let’s protect ourselves a little bit and see what shakes out.”

He still thinks the hog market can move higher with disease issues supporting the back months. “I think the overall story for me is that I’m still feeling, okay, about the overall hog market and that we can move higher. Our feeder pig prices are still very high and tough to find. So disease, those issues are still there. If we’d get that third gap lower, that’s what they call an exhaustion gap. So I think that there’s actually some people hoping for that saying, okay, we get a third gap lower. I’m going to be in there. That’s my buying opportunity. And I think that’s what we would see.”

Grains See Profit Taking Pre-Holiday
Grain futures had a strong technical close yesterday with a chart breakout in soybeans and wheat. However, Varilek says the market may take a break today and see some profit taking heading into a three day holiday.

“It’s a little bit of profit taking here on some of these markets. We’ve had a big charge. We’re getting through moving averages. We’re through retracement levels. And, you know, the next goals are some of those old highs, which, you know, another 20 cents in the beans is where it would run into its next resistance. But, so just taking a little bit off today. And for me, it’s, okay, do we really have the news behind us to, to break through a topside? And I’m just not there. I don’t, I don’t think we have it from February 13 today to March, the end of March, when we get our acreage report. We are generally a pretty sluggish market unless there’s some kind of news happening in South America. And I just think that’s where we’re at. I don’t feel like it has the bull being fed hard enough here to keep it going. So these Friday corrections do not surprise me at all. I still think it needs something bigger to try to break it out,” he explains.

Cattle Make Near Term Highs Again: Soybeans Rally on 45Z Guidance, Pulling up Grains

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:24:57 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly higher on Tuesday.

Cattle Make New Highs for the Move....Again
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher again on Tuesday and made more new highs for the move. Tyler Schau of AgMarket.net says the push continues to come from cash and the USDA Cattle Inventory report. The five area weighted average steer price last week was up $4.74 at $239.44 and cash is above the futures market again which is pulling the live cattle futures higher. Feeders are also benefiting from higher cash he says, “Yesterday’s feeder calf index came in at $374 and some change, which was the third highest feeder calf index on record. We’re within a dollar of the record high set back in early October. So, you know, our opinion all along has been as long as cash is doing the work.”

Cash Higher Again This Week?
Producers have the leverage right now and with the board rallying Schau is pretty optimistic cash will be higher again this week. “You mention the producers have the leverage. The packer has not been making a lot of money the last four years, and that does concern us. The fact that they haven’t had that leverage. They’ve done a few things with the closing of the plant in Lexington. They’ve shut down a shift in Amarillo, Texas. We’re kind of waiting for the next shoe to drop, and that’s what concerns me as a risk advisor.”

Fear of Plant Closure
He says there is fear of another plant closure with the negative packer margins or a shift comes off. “Right now we’re not utilizing all the shackle space that we’ve got. There’s more capacity than there are animals to take up that space. And so if they do anything to maybe take some shackle space offline, close a plant, shut down a shift, and even that up to where they don’t have to push as hard to fill it, you know, that’s one of the concerns we’ve got hanging over our heads.

Will Cattle Fill the Chart Gap Areas Retest Record Highs?
He doesn’t like make those predictions but says with new highs scored on Tuesday it’s possible, “That’s definitely got the technical traders looking at the upside and probably got some buy orders. And if we start entering into that gap space you’ll probably see some sell stops trigger for some short positions or buy stops excuse me for some short positions and push that market higher and you’re definitely going to have the technical traders that are looking to fill that gap we get back up to those levels those highs you know that we set at the $378, $380, $382 mark back in October, and we can get through that. That’s very promising, But we’ve seen this play out before, and when we get to those levels, the buyers tend to kind of get a little nervous because that’s a lot of risk out there. If you’re buying cash cattle and you’re paying $380 a hundredweight on an eightweight, that’s a lot of cash you’re forking over.”

Will Funds Continue to Buy?
Funds are still long, not as long as they were at their record level, but are they willing to participate enough to push the market to new highs? He says, “I think they are. They’ve backed off. Their fund positioning is a little lighter than it was when we set those record prices. They may be wanting to jump in. That’s also one of the things that always scares me about the cattle space, though. The door gets a lot narrower in fat cattle and especially in feeder cattle when people decide they want to get out. The volume in corn and beans is high enough that you can kind of see a liquidation event occur, and it’s not quite so detrimental. And we saw that in October, November the longs were racing for the door and you couldn’t get out on a few days.

NWS Rumors the Black Swan
He says the key is to stay away from the New World Screwworm rumors that have tanked the market on any given day. “I think the market had a lot of hope coming into this fall that as cold weather came in, those rumors were going to just kind of dissipate. We weren’t going to have to worry about it. That hasn’t happened. I think that’s got quite a few people nervous in a lot of areas. I’m not privy to a lot of that information inside the USDA. It’s definitely a concern. You know, they recently issued a challenge grant for someone that can come up with a better way to manage New World Screwworm if it does enter the U.S. That tells us maybe some of the systems they have in place aren’t working as well as they had hoped or had prepared for.”

Soybeans and Bean Oil up With 45Z Guidance Out
Soybeans and bean oil rallied with the 45Z guidance released by Treasury. Even though it’s not finalized it gave the market some hope and certainty. “It’s still got to go through public comment period, which I think occurs sometime in May. It’s a 175-page document. There’s a lot of information in there. There really wasn’t anything unexpected in the report or in the news that we got today. There’s some stuff on land use changes. There’s some redefining that any tax credits have to be from domestically produced renewable energies.”

Corn Follows Soybeans
He says corn followed soybeans on the rally and saw some short covering. “There really wasn’t any news out of South America. In fact, weather probably looks a little more promising. Some of the yield expectations are bumping up a little bit in that region. So my guess, if I had to lean either way, was probably on the back of the 45Z guidance. You could throw in the fact that the dollar was a little lower, pushing back down after making a nice little run the last few days.”

Brazil Production Estimates Up
Meanwhile both StoneX and Celeres raised their Brazlian production estimates by 4 MMT. So he says the record crop just keeps getting bigger. “Yeah, its a big crop. It’s getting bigger. And that shouldn’t be a surprise either. I’ve been saying for the last three years that Brazil is the elephant in the room. They continue to add more and more acres. They continue to get good enough weather to produce big yields. They’re going to be around. Those production numbers probably aren’t dropping anytime soon.”

Outside Markets Risk On
Buying interest was also supported by friendly outside markets that saw a weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. Big rebounds in the gold and silver markets today also fed the grain market bulls.

Cattle Chop Anticipating Higher Cash, Report: Grains Fall With Outside Markets

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 16:32:18 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains were mostly lower early Friday.

Risk Off Outside Markets Spillover
The ag markets were mostly lower early Friday on spillover from the risk off selling in the outside markets as the money flow continued to spillover. Today the outside markets are reacting to President Trump’s nominee for FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh, with the ideas he is more hawkish and less likely to lower interest rates.

Cattle Markets Await Report
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle markets have gotten caught up in that money flow but are also seeing some caution ahead of the USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report to be released this afternoon. He says the market will be closely watching the beef replacement and all heifers categories for any signs of herd rebuilding. Early trade estimates have total beef cows at 100%, beef replacements at 102% and all heifers at 99%.

Cattle Markets Await Cash
The cattle markets are also awaiting cash trade development. Kooima says there was some light trade at $238 live in Eastern Iowa sold to a regional. Bids have also been passed at $237 so he is anticipating higher cash trade this week. He thinks producers will hold out for higher money after cash trade was surprisingly $2 to $3 higher last week.

NWS Headlines
Feeders may have also reacted negatively to yesterday’s state of emergency declaration by Texas Governor Rick Greg Abbott due to New World Screwworm (NWS). Kooima says the market continues to trade headlines or at least the algorythim traders are.

Lean Hogs Just Off Contract Highs
Lean hog futures were slightly lower in the front month on Friday but the summer futures were once again resuming their uptrend. Kooima says the market hit contract highs earlier this week and then saw some profit taking. With the disease pressure and strong consumer demand he thinks the futures will retest those highs. He says cutouts have been staying about 90 cents which is seasonally very strong and an indication that consumers are trading down proteins and picking pork. Exports this week were also huge at 56,000 MT.

Grains See Risk Off Selling, After Hitting Resistance
Grains futures are mostly lower seeing some profit taking as it is end of the month, plus the corn and soybean futures both hit chart resistance on Thursday at the upper end of their trading ranges and failed. Selling pressure is also tied to the outside market money flow and risk off selling in markets like the metals and the rebound in the dollar.

Record Breaking Winter Storm Fern Slams Farmers and Ranchers in 28 States

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 15:05:58 GMT

Winter Storm Fern will go down in the record books with a large swath of the U.S. and farm country blanketed with a foot or more of snow, ice and record-breaking cold.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag senior science fellow, says: “We had 28 states under at least an ice storm warning or a winter storm warning. And the thing started in New Mexico and finished in Maine and along the way dumped a tremendous amount of snow. A massive ice storm that stretched from what Dallas to Memphis to Nashville.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Hundreds of Thousands Without Power

That heavy ice caused hundreds of thousands of power outages that will last for days or even weeks in some areas. Early estimates on Monday morning by PowerOutage.com put total power outages at over 782,000 customers, mainly across the Southeast U.S. The hardest hit states included Tennessee at just under 250,000 and Mississippi and Maine at nearly 150,000. By Monday evening total power outages were still at more than 550,000.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Record Low Temperatures

Farmers and ranchers worked over the weekend to protect livestock from this historic winter blast. Hundreds of locations also surpassed unofficial daily records for low temperatures. That combined with dangerous wind chills, stressed livestock and hurt performance and health.

Snodgrass says, “I mean, 30 to 40 degrees colder than normal. I mean, I saw wind chills in Wisconsin, a huge dairy state. wind chills in Wisconsin down to minus 55 over the weekend, and that’s a pretty brutal setup for humans and livestock alike.”

Livestock Producers Work Overtime to Protect Herds

Northwest Louisiana cattle producer Mitch Marsalis worked over the weekend to keep his beef cattle warm with extra grain and feed. “We’re trying to get these calves back to pasture and get everything set up to get them fed, get them some warmth and some food in their bodies to keep them warm during this weather.”

However, the Claiborne Parish rancher told Josh Meeks at This Week in Louisiana Agriculture the 25-degree temperatures are harder on ranchers than livestock. “They’re cold right now, but they’re not as cold as we are. They’re acclimated to this weather a little bit better than we are. You know, they’re not sitting in the house, 70 degrees and then walk outside and get that shock about them and all.”

10 Points to Consider When Managing Cattle Through Cold Stress

Tips to Prevent Hypothermia in Calves

Grain Movement and Processing Also Slowed

Fern has also slowed grain movement from trucks to barges. Plus, ethanol and soybean processing plants have slowed production to conserve margins with surging natural gas prices.

Winter Wheat Winter Kill Concerns

Plus, winter kill is possible in winter wheat in areas like Kansas, says Snodgrass, where the deep freeze was preceded by above average temperatures. “I think the only saving grace is there’s now a little skiff of snow and in eastern Kansas even more than that sitting on top of the ground and on top of the wheat as the Arctic air spills all the way down to the Rio Grande. So I think it’s going to be one of those things where like well in April we will see if there was any damage or any problems.”

How Long Will Polar Vortex Last?

Snodgrass says the bad news is this polar vortex could stick around for a while. “We’ve displaced the polar vortex. It’s now sitting over like the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay. We’ve pinched off warm air over the Arctic, which means we’re displacing it right down the heart of North America. And we’re going to continue to deal with this to finish this month and I think even start February.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Analog Year in 2014

And so Snodgrass thinks this polar vortex could be similar to analog year of 2014 where the polar vortex was prolonged through February.

Cattle Rally on Higher Cash, Trumping COF: Tightest Numbers Ahead

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 16:20:16 GMT

Cattle and lean hog futures saw early strength on Monday with grains quietly mixed.

Cattle Futures Rally With Cash
Cattle futures saw a mixed opening and quickly moved higher. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says he was concerned the trade might view a slightly bearish Cattle on Feed report placement number as a reason to sell but the market was more focused on the higher cash trade Friday.

Southern cash ranged from $232 to a few up to $236.50, but the volume was at $233 to $235, steady to $2 higher than last week. Northern dressed trade ranged from $364 to mostly $370, up $5 and live sale prices ranged from $233 to $236.50. So a strong showing that Kooima says may have been pushed somewhat by the winter weather system bearing down on cattle feeding areas.

Cash Trumps Cattle on Feed
The USDA Cattle on Feed report was slightly bearish according to Kooima. On feed totals came in at 96.8% which was in line with expectations but it is still 95% of the five year average, so bullish. The placements at 94.6% of last year were slightly above expectations, while the marketings were at 101.8%, in line with estimates.

Placements Jump in Texas
Kooima says this is the first USDA Cattle on Feed report that is comparing apples to apples, meaning this is the first month of 2025 where the border was closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Last year Texas placements were sharply lower as a result so this report showed placements in Texas at 110% of a year ago.

Quarterly Steer and Heifer Breakdown
The quarterly breakdown of steers and heifer in feedlots shows 38.7% were heifers with 61.3% steers. Kooima says this is very close to year ago totals and even the last quarter. So while there is a slight indication of heifer retention its is not enough to cause concern above rapid rebuilding.

Live Cattle Technically Breaking Out?
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday and for the week but live cattle have been sideways on a chart. So, is the market finally seeing a breakout technically or what would it take to confirm that? Kooima says the highest open interest is in the April live cattle contract and currently he is watching $239.05 on a chart because a close above that level could push futures to the next level. That could cause the chart gap area to be filled and a possible retest of the October all-time highs would be possible.

Lean Hogs Rebound Will Summer Months Close Above $110?
Lean hog futures were back higher after mild profit taking in the front end of the board on Friday. The summer month futures continue to grind into new contract high areas pushed by disease and are knocking on the door of $110. If that level is taken out where is the next objective? Kooima says while the funds could push the market higher he suggests producers look at hedging those levels and locking in some profits.

Corn and Soybeans Hitting Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans started off lower with some spillover from outside markets that were reacting to President Trump’s threat of 100% tariff on Canada for their trade agreement struck with China. Soybeans were higher last week on hot, dry weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil but were struggling to extend those gains.

The problem according to Kooima is both corn and soybeans continue to run into chart resistance. For March soybeans the 200-day moving average has been a sticking point. While export demand has also been stronger, especially for corn, Kooima says it still isn’t enough to chew through the massive supplies with a record crop and that is keeping a lid on a bigger rally.

Cattle Cautious Pre-COF but Higher Cash Trumps All

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 16:12:24 GMT

Cattle started off lower on Friday with grain and hog futures higher.

Cattle Weaker Ahead of Cattle on Feed
Live and feeder cattle futures were weaker to start Friday as the market was seeing some profit taking and caution ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed Report. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the reason is even though the placement estimate is at 93% of a year ago the market could get a surprise. He says this report will finally compare to a time period when the border was closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports. As a result, some of the Southern cattle groups are putting out pre-report estimates that are much higher than a year ago on placements. On feed estimates are at 96.8% and marketing at 101.5%.

Quarterly Breakout
The USDA report will also show the quarterly breakdown of steers and heifers in feedlots and Varilek says based on conversations he’s had with auction barns, he is anticipating it will show that there is heifer retention that is starting to take place.

Can Higher Cash Trade Win the Day?
Cash trade has been quiet so far this week and bids of $232 were passed on by producers in the North on Thursday, so that may indicate a higher week of cash is in order. Boxed beef values have been moving higher and the Choice cutouts were up another $1.34 on Thursday afternoon at $367.45. Packers have cut kills to 32 hours which has helped prop up values. While demand isn’t on fire this time of year, Varilek says it is still solid.

Weather Curbing Weights
The massive winter storm and bitterly cold weather will likely curb performance in feedlots, but Varilek says with weights at record levels the slow down in gains may help keep producers more current on their marketings.

Lean Hogs Make More Contract Highs
Lean hog futures continue to crack out contract highs in the April through deeper deferred months. The Lean Hog Index has continued to rise with the latest print up $.67 but Varilek says the summer months are pricing in disease issues that are emerging in large production areas. He thinks pushing above $110 is very likely in the summer hog futures.

Grains Rally on Exports and Weather
Grains futures were higher as well with the market reacting to strong weekly exports and weather. Corn exports were a marketing year high at 157.9 million bu., soybeans were also a marketing year high at 89.9 million bu. and wheat was strong at 22.7 million bu. South American weather is also looking hot and dry for parts of Argentina and Southern Brazil which has traders adding some weather premium to soybeans and maybe even corn, while the the wheat market is pricing in some concerns about winter kill with the below freezing temperatures.

Still, Varilek is attributing more of the bounce to technical buying after the markets are on the mend following the selloff in reaction to the bearish USDA reports. He says the corn and soybean markets are still trading within their ranges and he doesn’t see a reason for them to break out.

Can Cattle Recover From the NWS Selloff? Grains Ease on EU Tariff Fears

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 16:08:03 GMT

Cattle futures are mostly higher early Tuesday as well as hogs, while grains are slightly lower

Can Cattle Recover From NWS Selloff?
Live and feeder cattle futures are trying to recover after a selloff of over $4 in live cattle and $8 in feeder cattle on Friday. Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the markets were down sharply on Friday due to an unconfirmed rumor of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the New Mexico. Fear was also tied to comments by Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller who stated that NWS cases only 215 miles from the Texas border warranted increased monitoring by producers. USDA later confirmed there were no positive cases.

So can the market recover now that there is no confirmed NWS case? Kooima says that would normally be the school of thought. However, with outside markets seeing risk off selling that may temper some of the buying interest in cattle today.

Risk Off Market Place Holding Back Cattle
Over the weekend the U.S. announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries starting on Feb. 1 if the EU did not sell Greenland to the United States. The EU responded with the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. companies operating in Europe of $93 billion Euros. Kooima says the bigger concern is that this will anger China or spark a possible move by Beijing to take over Taiwan. All of this could upset the U.S. China trade truce which would be negative for the outside and equity markets and that could spill over negatively on the cattle futures.

Cash Cattle Trade Steady Last Week, Key for Direction This Week
Kooima says he thought it was encouraging the selloff in the futures Friday only resulted in tempering the fed cash trade slightly as mostly steady cash trades took place in the North and South. The South traded $233 to $234 live and the North was $365 dressed and mostly $232 live. This week’s cash trade will be key to helping the futures market recover and he is hopeful for slightly higher prices. Although cash trade could be stalled until Friday after the USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Cattle on Feed Friday
Kooima says the report should remind the trade how tight inventory is. “We aren’t even into the tightest numbers yet,” he reiterated, “And this report should reinforce that with the lighter placements, especially in the South due to the lack of Mexican feeder cattle being placed in feedlots.”

Lean Hog Futures Hitting Contract Highs
Lean hog futures were mostly lower again Tuesday morning making more contract highs in the April through the deferred futures. The market has seen fund buying pushing the rally but its also related to disease problems that are lifting isowean pig prices over $100 and creating another marketing hole for the summer months.

Grains Ease on EU Tariff Fears
After a higher close Friday, the grain markets are easing back with fears about retaliation from the EU or even China plus the risk off selling in outside markets is spillover over. Kooima says even without that negative news the grain markets don’t have much positive to trade on. He says the bigger supplies in the last Monday’s USDA reports is likely to keep a lid on prices, in addition to Brazil’s record soybean crop starting to come to the market.