WEATHER

Cattle Futures Hit Record Highs, Are $400 Feeders Next? Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies

Fri, 01 May 2026 16:06:08 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans higher Friday, with hogs lower.

Feeders Hit Record Highs, How High Will Prices Go?
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday’s open and quickly moved into record high territory.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs.

Feeder are back as the leaders in the complex but how high will prices go now that prices are back up into record highs?

He says, “It does feel like, okay, live cattle had already made their contract highs. Feeders were next. So, what numbers can we grab? I’ve heard the $380. I’ve heard the $390. I’ve heard the $400. We’re all just reaching, making up numbers that we can. We’ve already seen eight weights spring $400 in sale barns in the North. So it’s not something out of the ordinary that can’t happen. So once we bust through, it feels like, yeah, they have the legs to do it.”

He stresses that this could be the last higher push for a while.

“We’re going to want to be ready for it. I think this is our last charge higher. I guess it’s feeling like we’re getting towards the ninth inning of this. I think we’ve probably heard that a few times, but this is a rally that is going to be the one that’s going to be the one that we’re going to want to sell, I guess. So the chance to get to $4 is there. It really could happen,” he adds.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs First
Live cattle had already hit record highs earlier in the week and took out those levels again on Friday.

The market says some end of month profit taking Thursday but charged back higher Friday morning chasing cash.

Record cash trade broke already on Tuesday at $11, $12 higher than last week at $258 in the North, $255 to $256 in the South.

He says it caught the market by surprise, “I mean, that’s not something that’s normal. And it’s odd because when we were getting bid the $246, And the market wasn’t trading as hot as it was. I think the packers could have just went to $248 and bought all of the show lists and bought all
of the cattle. The fact that they waited another week, was it a shoot, you caught me bluffing move? Or was there somebody that’s really long, this board that wanted it to go higher? I don’t know and we won’t know. But regardless. Big charge higher, $12.”

He says bids started Tuesday at $250 and quickly went to $252 and then to $255.

“I thought that would do it. And then was just surprised when I started hearing that everybody was passing it and then get to $258, which a lot of people did get that and did trade that. You could get it for shorter. You could get two over the August for basis contracts. So, the packer was trying to get as many cattle around them as they can. And I would believe that everything on the show list, if you’re passing that kind of price, I don’t know what you’re waiting for,” he adds.

He hasn’t seen anything like it since 2014 but it was a big inventory grab and packers bought for delayed delivery as well.

Packers Buy Ahead of Kill Cuts
Packers were aggressively getting inventory as they are talking about kill cuts starting next week.

“Just hearing that there’s some majors that are going to start kill cuts next week, start to slow down the chain. And I mean, it’s just, it’s how tight we are. In this cattle industry, we’re, you know, 8% down, 8 to 9% down on steer to heifer slaughter this year. Cow slaughter is way down. Dairy cow slaughter is down. It’s just there’s still a shortage. So this last little push is all on supply, in my opinion. And I think that’s how the packer is trying to manage it,” he explains.

He says they are cutting kills to get boxed beef to move higher and improve their margins and the industry is still down a plant from a strike.

How High Will Live Cattle Futures Run?
Live cattle have continued to push into record high areas but how high will prices go?

Varilek says it is hard to even project because there are no technical areas on the charts to even compare to now.

“You’re up in new territory. You’re just grabbing, you know whatever number comes to your mind somebody wants to say a really high number so they can get remembered. I would rather try to do you guys some good rather than just make up a number up high and try to throw it to you that’s just that’s all made up,” he adds.

But he does say it depends not just on supply but demand.

“For me it’s just that this demand is going to have to pick up if we’re going to keep these live cattle running through and that’s the part that’s seeming to be just a little bit lacking. Seeing mixed feelings on what these steak cuts are doing. You know, the ribeye rolls are down. Usually we’re trying to, you know, see how high we can get those or how much a consumer is going to pay for them this time of year in the red hot grilling season, Mother’s Day weekend coming up and we’re actually dropping them a little bit. So I don’t like that,” he further explains.

Plus, he says with energy prices soaring it is hitting consumer pocketbooks which could also ratchet back demand.

Hogs Fall on Iowa Pseudorabies Case
Lean hog futures were down on Thursday and again Friday with the uncertainty tied to the first case of pseudorabies in a hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

“So it’s five boars that were shipped, you know, were. tested positive and some were shipped from Texas to Iowa. So sounding like it was show pigs, not sure. Can’t totally confirm that, but that would make sense on how that happened,” he says.

However, the disease is manageable according to Varilek.

“So we have vaccination capabilities already, protocol in place. So, for me it’s okay I think we’re going to be able to eradicate this once again and make this a short-lived kind of a worry here because it it is something that that’s real and I mean it’s something that can have you know
they could be dead within 48 to 72 hours. Hogs are a great host likely mixed with some feral hogs so it is around.”

Is it Bullish or Bearish?
Varilek says it does severely cut production which takes supply off the market which is bullish.

However, it is still a market uncertainty.

“So uncertainty is always bearish. Packers are trying to note some certain timeframes where they would kill hogs with pseudo rabies. So they were still entering, you know. you know, the meat supply. We weren’t worried about it back then. So because they had windows where you could slaughter those hogs. So a lot to digest here real fast. Everybody’s Googling pseudorabies and trying to learn as much as they can here real fast,” he adds.

Nov Soybeans Hit Contract Highs, Corn Also Higher
Corn and soybeans were higher early with November soybeans making new contract highs.

Varilek soybeans are following the new contract highs in bean oil.

“That seems to be the biggest thing, just the energy is staying so strong. And that’s making a lot of the headlines, the war. and how high crude oil is. So, I think that those markets are starting to respect that. I mean from a production side yeah you said more acres we’re seeing a little bit of replant we’ve got some frost. Which usually those rallies that are based off of frost and replant those are rallies that are meant to be sold. But I don’t think that that’s all of this I do think it’s energy,” he states.

Can Dec Corn Get Above $5?
Corn is also higher on the biofuels push with strong ethanol margins and profits.

With $100 crude oil corn could stay supported for a while and chew through some of the large ending stocks.

So will Dec corn get above $5?

Varilek says, “So we’ve got a bar right there, $5. We’ve seen it fail there a few times. Now I think if you just poke through it. I think you’re going to get some follow through strength on it just because it’s been such a number. Oh, that looks easy. Just sell it right below five bucks here and let it break. But those triple tops never hold, they kind of say. So I feel like we’re going to be able to get through it and might get some follow
through.”

He adds that the funds are long corn and the news may finally be good enough to rally the corn and grain markets.

Drought Stalls Expansion: 75% of U.S. Beef Cows in Dry Conditions

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 16:18:29 GMT

The formula for herd expansion may be simple — “grass plus profitability equals more cattle” — but the reality on the ground is anything but. CattleFax analyst Holden Ramey says nearly three‑quarters of the U.S. beef cow herd is currently in drought, sharply limiting the industry’s ability to rebuild numbers.

While profitability signals are strong, he says, dry pastures, high interest rates, costly inputs and market volatility are forcing many ranchers to delay or scale back heifer retention.

“We’re seeing some retention on a limited basis,” Ramey notes, “but it’s a slow, cautious rebuild, not a full‑throttle expansion.”

Ramey shared an outlook on the U.S. beef cattle cycle, herd dynamics, feed and grain markets, drought impacts, trade, demand and price expectations across the cattle and beef complex during the “Breakthrough Symposium: New World Screwworm Preparedness” on Friday in San Antonio, Texas.

His core message: supplies will stay historically tight, demand is exceptionally strong, expansion will be slow and cautious, and effective risk management is critical.

Here are seven key takeaways from Ramey’s presentation:

1. Slow, U‑Shaped Herd Rebuild – Tight Supplies for Years

Ramey predicts the beef cow herd is near its low for this cattle cycle, but the rebuild will be slow and cautious, not a sharp V‑recovery. Weather, high interest rates, input costs, aging producers and volatility are all dragging out expansion, even with strong prices.

He says calf and feeder supplies will stay tight, keeping markets in a higher trading range, even if the industry stops making new highs every year.

2. Drought Is the Biggest Brake on Expansion

About 75% of the U.S. beef cow herd is in drought, compared to a long‑term average near 20%. El Niño and a neutral pattern offer some relief ahead, but much of “cow country” is still in rough shape, limiting heifer retention and herd growth.

(CattleFax)

He predicts some producers who tried to hold heifers may be forced to “send them down the road” due to lack of feed.

3. Demand Is Exceptionally Strong Despite High Prices

He says since January 2020, the average price of ground beef has increased approximately 72% and retail beef is up approximately 61%, versus overall inflation up approximately 28%.

Ramey admits even with cheaper pork and poultry, there’s little evidence of major trade‑down away from beef — more trading down within beef (steaks to ground) than out of the category.

Higher grading — about 85% Choice and Prime, and approximately 20% Prime — plus the protein diet trends and GLP‑1‑driven nutrition advice have helped build durable beef demand.

4. Feed, Days on Feed and Carcass Weights Are Offsetting Fewer Head

Ramey says cheap corn supports longer feeding periods. On average, steers are averaging 190 to 200 days on feed. Simultaneously, average carcass weights increased 52 lb. in 2024 and 2025, which is equivalent to about 1.9 million head of added supply. Note: The long-term average of carcass weight increase historically has been 5 lb. per year.

(CattleFax)

He explains this means the rally is as much demand‑driven as supply‑driven — not the tightest tonnage ever, but prices are still very strong.

5. Trade Shifts: Mexico, Canada and Boxed Beef Flows

He says the screwworm ‑related closure of the Mexican border in 2025 slashed imports from approximately 1 million head to around 200,000, significantly tightening U.S. feeder supplies.

Even if the border reopens, Ramey does not expect a quick return to 1‑million‑head years due to health protocols and more feeding capacity in Mexico.

He also says exports are down and imports up, as tight U.S. supplies and high prices draw more product in and keep more domestic beef at home.

6. Leverage and Profitability Have Shifted Toward Producers

After the COVID/packing bottleneck era, the industry now has more slaughter capacity than cattle, so leverage has swung away from packers. Fed cattle’s share of the cutout has rebounded to around 59%, versus the low 40s during COVID.

He reports the total industry profitability is near $690 per head to be shared across sectors, with cow‑calf and stocker operators capturing a big share.

7. Price Outlook: High Plateau Now, Eventual Downside Later

For 2026, Ramey predicts fed steers will mostly be $240 to $250, potential spike to $250 to $255 in late spring/early summer, then softer into $230 to $235 in Q4.

Feeders and calves stay historically high but could see modest pullbacks later in the year, likely smaller than the average 12% seasonal break because supplies are so tight.

He says the CattleFax team expects slightly softer prices next year across cutout, fats, feeders and calves — but still elevated versus history.

Longer term, after this huge up‑cycle — up approximately 200% for calves — Ramey warns of roughly 25% downside risk across fed, feeder and calves sometime later in the 2020s or early 2030s, making risk management critical while times are good.

His message to producers was both optimistic and cautionary. Tight cattle numbers, exceptional beef demand and renewed leverage at the ranch and feedyard suggest that today’s strong prices are not a fleeting windfall, but part of a higher trading range that could persist for years.

At the same time, Ramey warns, drought, high costs, shifting trade flows and the inevitability of the next down‑cycle mean this phase of the market must be treated as an opportunity to shore up balance sheets, invest wisely and lock in margins where possible. The fundamentals may be on the cattle industry’s side, he stresses, but capturing the full benefit of this rare window will depend on how aggressively producers manage both production and price risk in the months ahead.

Cattle Bottoming as Border/Strike Talk Fear Eases and Cash Ideas Improve

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:29:35 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains are all higher early Monday.

Cattle Extend Gains a Third Day
Live and feeder cattle futures are higher on Monday for a third day.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday.

Border Fears Subside
Part of the bounce also came as fears subsided regarding a possible reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

The fear started already on April 17 when USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was in Texas for the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility to help combat New World screwworm (NWS).

However, Rollins was also scheduled for a trip to Arizona on Friday, April 24 which renewed fears of an announcement.

So, Kooima says when Rollins said Thursday she was canceling the trip the market breathed a sigh of relief.

“She canceled her trip due to biosecurity reasons as you’ve got a case that’s supposedly was within 60 miles of the Texas border even though this port that she was going to go to out there by Douglas is almost 800 miles away from there,” he explains.

Cash Market Firms With Board
Following the recovery in the futures the feedlots started to pass on packer bids of $246 being offered for fed cash cattle.

Kooima says there was some trade at $246 and $386 dressed but by Friday some feeders in the North were passing on $248 as feedlots regained leverage.

“I certainly have a little more optimism this week on a Monday than I did last week for cash. I think there’s a real shot we can get back to $250. We shall see. But the show list up here, very small. And we’re in that kind of that in-between time, Michelle, where the yearlings are largely gone. We’re trying to push these calves to get fat and the weather’s been great. So some of them are pretty close, but you know, this holding action type of a deal that we’ve had for a while, I think this holding action rally here is going to continue until it doesn’t,” he says.

He thinks producers will be slow to sell when it costs $1 to put gain on and so he thinks supplies will be tight for the next 30 to 45 days.

Fear of Potential Fort Morgan Plant Strike Ease
Early last Thursday, the market also sold off on fear that workers at the Cargill beef plant at Fort Morgan, Colorado, were going to walk out. Kooima says the plant did not slaughter Thursday, Friday or Monday while negotiations were taking place.

“Supposedly they were going to return to, or they were going to start negotiations this week. What I do know is that it sounds like this is not a union backed strike, that this is what they would call a wildcat strike, which people are kind of voluntary. I say, Hey, we’re leaving, you know, blah, blah, blah. I’m not certain as to what. their demands exactly are what the beef is or what they’re trying to what they’re trying to accomplish other than I suppose the obvious, more pay less work,” he adds.

The plant has a capacity of 4,700 but is currently slaughtering only around 4,000 currently. Still he says the market has faded the news like it isn’t that concerned.

“It might affect that cash market, maybe that Western Nebraska, Colorado market, maybe more than anything else. But I’ll keep you posted. At this point, it’s kind of day to day. And I think the market would tell you that they don’t expect it’s going to last long. Otherwise, I think we’d be trading worse,” he says.

Plus, shackle space is at a surplus to available cattle right now softening the blow.

However, he says if boxed beef prices don’t improve soon to help get packer margins back in the black it could lead to additional plant closures.

“But unless this box beef catches here somebody’s going to have to drop again. I mean, the packer, that side of the industry is not just going to sit there and merrily lose $200 a head every day without closing another place or severely cutting this kill back.”

Funds Stay Long Cattle?
The latest Commitment of Traders Report indicated funds are still long around 135,000 futures and option positions and have exited about 1,800 positions as of last Tuesday.

So is there a fear that the commodity fund traders are going to continue to liquidate just because the market already hit the record highs?

He says, “You bet there’s a fear, at least for some of us, for me. That would be the gorilla in the room here. The fundamentals, really good.

June cattle, probably. a little higher priced normally than what they would be basis wise I think last year we were like $8 or $10 under cash. So if you get $248 and the basis was like last year you could have June cattle at $240 or $238. It’s not it’s at $247 okay with the last cash the best of the last cash at $248. Sp, is it that the cash is too low or are the futures too high?”

Hogs Bounce or Bottom?
Lean hog futures were higher Monday and had a higher weekly close last week.

So is the market putting in a bottom and how much upside is there?

Kooima says, “Hog charts have a nice looking formation, you know, had that big outside day down where it looked like they were in a wreck on Thursday, came back gap higher last week and just barely by the skin of our teeth, we’ve been holding that gap, which is good. So I would like to get us above $103.70, above the 20-day to make me feel just a bit better about it.”

He says feeder pigs are running nearly $140 a head, which is a function of tight supply creaated by another round of big-time disease problems in some of the farrowing units in the North,” he explains that has him a bit friendly.

Grains Rally, Corn Makes Fresh Highs
Grains were higher early Monday with old crop corn making fresh highs for the move.

Corn has received some help from the weather rally in wheat but may be trading its own weather concerns with heavy rains over the weekend in some key production areas of the Midwest.

“And get used to it. This is what you and I will be talking about for the next three months, right? Whether it did or if it didn’t, or did it rain where it’s supposed to.”

However, he is not overly bullish due to the large carryout and poor basis in the Northwestern Corn Belt.

“So we’re right at halfway back on the July corn on this last move so that we’re going to learn a little bit about the market right here, I’d love to see the basis tighten and it usually is tightest when guys are out in the field worried about planting corn they’re not sitting by their grain bin loading corn,” he says.

Soybeans have been sideways for the last six weeks says Kooima, and he thinks the crude oil and bean oil story is about running its course too.

“I don’t know how far you can stretch that rubber band. So a long way to go here. We got a long growing season and we’ll see once,” he adds.

Cattle Recover on Higher Cash, Fade Plant Strike: Soybeans Hit New Highs with China Push

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 16:13:40 GMT

Cattle and hogs are higher early Friday. Soybeans are also up a third day with corn and wheat struggling.

Cattle Recover Fading Possible Plant Strike
Cattle futures were down sharply on Thursday and touched limit down on some contracts with fear of a workers strike and the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market tanked as there were no buy orders in to stabilize the market. However, he says some of the crash was tied to profit taking after the market got overbought. Cattle rallied Monday through Wednesday into new highs for the move and were due for a correction. He thinks even if the 5,400 head beef plant saw a shutdown it would be short lived and there is enough open capacity in the packing industry right now to easily absorb the loss.

Higher Cash Pulls Futures Back Up
The big gains in the futures are also tied to higher cash trade and producers lifting their short hedges. Varilek says on Thursday afternoon packers tried to low ball bid at $238 which was passed and by the end of the day they bought cattle at $241 live. The bids are now up to $242 which implies higher cash when the dust settles.

Spring Rally Coming
Varilek says despite some temporary corrections in the futures market he is fully expecting the futures to have their normal spring rally. It will get an extra push this year from cattle supplies getting into the tightest numbers in the cycle.

Argentina Beef Imports to Rise
The U.S. and Argentina also announced a trade deal on Thursday that includes more beef imports. Argentina’s quota will rise from 20,000 MT to 100,000 MT. However, Varilek says this is still a small amount and won’t have much impact on supplies or market prices. He says the bigger concern and impact comes from Brazilian imports.

Heifer Retention and Beef on Dairy
Varilek says longer term he is expecting the cattle herd to start a slow rebuild. While inventory was down .4% and beef cow numbers were down 1% in the USDA report. There was a hint of heifer retention starting to show up and so he is watching that for signs of expansion and bigger beef supplies.

Meanwhile, the number of milk cows was up 2% year over year and speaks to the push for more beef on dairy. Producers have been retaining more cows because they can sex the semen and create another revenue stream by using even cows they would normally cull to carry those valuable calves. Wet calves are selling for upwards of $1,500 and there are many dairy operations that can sex the semen to create more bull calves that they feed out themselves to sell.

Hogs Rebound With Cattle
Lean hogs futures were down yesterday with cattle and saw some profit taking after new contract highs were scored on Wednesday. The market continues to be bought by the funds on breaks and the summer months are being supported by disease and the lack of isowean pigs available. Plus, those isowean prices have jumped well over $100. The summer month futures getting above $110 chart resistance was clearly a signal to the funds to keep buying.

Soybeans Make New Highs For the Move
Soybean futures made new highs for the move again Friday morning with continued fund buying. The market is still trying to price in the additional 294 million bu. of soybeans that China could possibly buy. However, Varilek is skeptical it will happen so he is recommending producers use the rally to make some sales.

Corn Fails at Resistance
Even with the big rally in soybeans this week of over 50-cents the corn market has barely budged and hit chart resistance in the March around the $4.25 area and failed. Varilek says farmers are also selling at those levels trying to chew through this massive 2.2 billion bu. plus carryover. So, he is not optimistic about corn taking out overhead chart areas to produce a more sustained rally.

Record Breaking Winter Storm Fern Slams Farmers and Ranchers in 28 States

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 15:05:58 GMT

Winter Storm Fern will go down in the record books with a large swath of the U.S. and farm country blanketed with a foot or more of snow, ice and record-breaking cold.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag senior science fellow, says: “We had 28 states under at least an ice storm warning or a winter storm warning. And the thing started in New Mexico and finished in Maine and along the way dumped a tremendous amount of snow. A massive ice storm that stretched from what Dallas to Memphis to Nashville.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Hundreds of Thousands Without Power

That heavy ice caused hundreds of thousands of power outages that will last for days or even weeks in some areas. Early estimates on Monday morning by PowerOutage.com put total power outages at over 782,000 customers, mainly across the Southeast U.S. The hardest hit states included Tennessee at just under 250,000 and Mississippi and Maine at nearly 150,000. By Monday evening total power outages were still at more than 550,000.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Record Low Temperatures

Farmers and ranchers worked over the weekend to protect livestock from this historic winter blast. Hundreds of locations also surpassed unofficial daily records for low temperatures. That combined with dangerous wind chills, stressed livestock and hurt performance and health.

Snodgrass says, “I mean, 30 to 40 degrees colder than normal. I mean, I saw wind chills in Wisconsin, a huge dairy state. wind chills in Wisconsin down to minus 55 over the weekend, and that’s a pretty brutal setup for humans and livestock alike.”

Livestock Producers Work Overtime to Protect Herds

Northwest Louisiana cattle producer Mitch Marsalis worked over the weekend to keep his beef cattle warm with extra grain and feed. “We’re trying to get these calves back to pasture and get everything set up to get them fed, get them some warmth and some food in their bodies to keep them warm during this weather.”

However, the Claiborne Parish rancher told Josh Meeks at This Week in Louisiana Agriculture the 25-degree temperatures are harder on ranchers than livestock. “They’re cold right now, but they’re not as cold as we are. They’re acclimated to this weather a little bit better than we are. You know, they’re not sitting in the house, 70 degrees and then walk outside and get that shock about them and all.”

10 Points to Consider When Managing Cattle Through Cold Stress

Tips to Prevent Hypothermia in Calves

Grain Movement and Processing Also Slowed

Fern has also slowed grain movement from trucks to barges. Plus, ethanol and soybean processing plants have slowed production to conserve margins with surging natural gas prices.

Winter Wheat Winter Kill Concerns

Plus, winter kill is possible in winter wheat in areas like Kansas, says Snodgrass, where the deep freeze was preceded by above average temperatures. “I think the only saving grace is there’s now a little skiff of snow and in eastern Kansas even more than that sitting on top of the ground and on top of the wheat as the Arctic air spills all the way down to the Rio Grande. So I think it’s going to be one of those things where like well in April we will see if there was any damage or any problems.”

How Long Will Polar Vortex Last?

Snodgrass says the bad news is this polar vortex could stick around for a while. “We’ve displaced the polar vortex. It’s now sitting over like the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay. We’ve pinched off warm air over the Arctic, which means we’re displacing it right down the heart of North America. And we’re going to continue to deal with this to finish this month and I think even start February.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Analog Year in 2014

And so Snodgrass thinks this polar vortex could be similar to analog year of 2014 where the polar vortex was prolonged through February.

Is Your Herd Winter Storm Ready? 4 Ice and Blizzard Prep Strategies

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 14:34:56 GMT

AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting a high-impact winter storm will spread snow and ice across more than two dozen states from Texas through the Carolinas and Massachusetts from Friday through the weekend. Other areas of the country are also dealing with Mother Nature and cold temperatures.

To prepare for the storm, here are four strategies to help producers and their cattle get through an arctic blast.

(Purina)

1. Provide Ample, Clean Water

Access to fresh, clean, unfrozen water is crucial. Water is essential to feed digestion, and limiting water decreases passage rate of feeds, which will in turn compromise feed intake, making it very hard for cows to maintain weight. Ranchers should consider various options to contend with frigid temperatures and freezing water issues.

Check to make sure water heaters are in working order before bad weather hits, and be prepared to break ice or haul water if needed.

One factor that affects water needs is the stage of production. The need for water increases with the demands of production. For example, lactating cows require more water than dry pregnant cows. Dehydration is an added stress on cattle.

The good news is there are plenty of tried-and-true options for both temporary and permanent livestock watering systems that work in harsh winter conditions.

How to Keep Livestock Waters Open All Winter Long

Cattle on bedding behind a windbreak.

(Gabriel Ribeiro)

2. Offer Shelter and Bedding

Providing a windbreak can lower an animal’s cold stress. According to Oklahoma State’s Paul Beck , cows need to get adjusted to cold temperatures over time and grow a thick winter hair coat to be acclimated before winter storms arrive, or they will suffer from cold stress and require extra care.

“Body condition of cows and their hair coat can play a large part in their tolerance to colder conditions,” he says.

University of Nebraska’s Jessica Sperber says windbreaks, such as trees, walls, human-made structures or strategically placed hay bales, reduce wind exposure and prevent snow from drifting into the pen.

“Windbreaks must be tall enough to block the wind, aim for 7' to 8' in height while still allowing for some air flow between breaks,” she explains in an UNL Beef Watch article . “Common products used for construction of windbreaks include windboards and guardrail with 2"-to-2.5" openings between the rails. Guardrails require little to no maintenance, making them an excellent option for windbreak structures.”

Sperber says bedding is a source of insulation for cattle when temperatures drop.

“Bedding made from straw, corn stalks or other materials keep cattle off the cold ground, reduce heat loss and provide comfort,” she says. “In a study from North Dakota State University, offering modest bedding during feedlot winter weather events (defined as “straw available for steers to lay on”) increased daily gain by 0.86 lb. per day and improved feed efficiency by 31% with no change in feed intake.”

Don’t forget your bulls. Providing bedding for bulls is important for protecting testicles from frostbite, which can impair the testes’ ability to thermoregulate and affect semen quality.

Cattle need more shelter and nutritional needs during winter.

(Maggie Malson)

3. Adapt Feed and Nutrition

As temperatures drop, cattle’s energy requirements increase as they attempt to maintain body temperature. OSU recommends cattle have access to as much hay as they want to eat. Ruminal fermentation helps keep the animals warm.

Sperber says cattle typically require around 1% to 2% more feed for every degree Fahrenheit the temperature falls below their comfort zone, which is around 15°F (-10°C) for cattle with a dry coat during the winter months.

Beck adds cows in good body condition, those with body condition scores of 5 to 6, with good thick winter hair coats have a lower critical temperature around 32°F. Thin cows with thin hair coat are at more risk to cold stress with lower critical temperatures of around 40°F, while cows with wet hair coat have lower critical temperature of 59°F.

“With wind chills down to expected to get below zero, maintenance energy requirements will increase by up to 30% to 40%,” Beck explains.

How Much More Feed?

Beck explains a 1,200-lb. cow in good body condition needs 2 lb. of supplemental 20% range cubes to meet her requirements in normal conditions, as an example. When temperatures get down to 20°F her requirements increase by 12%; to meet the shortfall in energy, she will require 3 lb. of additional cubes per day for a total of 5 lb. of cubes per day.

“If we consider a thin cow with a thin hair coat, it gets to be more critical,” he stresses.

A thin cow needs to gain body condition to increase her chances of rebreeding for the next calf crop, so a producer should already be feeding around 4 lb. of cubes a day. Her lower critical temperature is 40°F so, when temperatures fall to 20°F her requirements increase by 20%.

“We will need to provide seven additional pounds of supplement for a total of 11 lb. of supplemental feed daily,” he says. “Feeding this much supplement is expensive and hard to manage.”

(Wyatt Bechtel)

4. Check Equipment and Supplies in Anticipation

The Texas and Southwest Cattle Raisers Association developed a winter storm preparation checklist . Some of their suggestions include:

Fill up diesel with anti-gel to prevent freezing
Check antifreeze levels
Park equipment out of wind trajectory to avoid accumulation of ice
Leave all water sources at a drip; have troughs filled just below float
Insulate exposed water pipes, wrap or bundle with straw
Harsh weather can stress cows into calving early , so be prepared with the proper veterinary supplies
Consider post-storm needs: starter fluid, propane heater, tools to bust water, diesel treatment, fence repair equipment, replacement parts for pipes/valves if busted, stocked hay ready to feed
Prepare yourself for any amount of time outside with gloves, ear warmers, neck gaiters and bibs
Plan for loss of power: easy-to-make meals, back-up for water heaters, double check generators
Check with elderly neighbors and friends to make sure they have a plan, too

Your Next Read:
Winter Storms are Brewing: Is Your Barn Ready?

Cattle Hit Fresh Highs on Bullish COF but Can it Continue? Grains Also Rally Monday

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 16:05:00 GMT

Grain and livestock futures are higher early Monday.

Cattle Make Fresh Highs on Bullish COF
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move Monday morning after a strong close Friday and higher weekly closes. However, the big catalyst is the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed Report data according to Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc.

Cattle on feed was 2% below December 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11% below 2024. Placements were the lowest for November since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.52 million head, 12% below 2024. Marketings were the second lowest for November since the series began in 1996.

Nelson says the Cattle on Feed placements numbers at 88.8% was extremely bullihs, “We’ve got eight months in a row now of lower than last year placements. They’ve ran about 7 % below last year’s level. So the period from now through early summer will be a little tighter supplies as far as from a feedlot perspective.”

Nelson says the on feed number at 2.2% below a year ago is also a reminder of how historically tight cattle inventory is but with a caveat. “This does tighten our supply argument here quite a bit here. One thing which we will point out, though, as we’ll watch very carefully, is some of this bullish news in recent weeks and months has been kind of offset by the packer-led declines and slaughter numbers. We’ll have to watch very carefully how well they react to this in these coming where the feed lot itself tightens up, and we’ll see if they’re still going to be trying to cut back on numbers.

Cash Cattle Trade Mixed
Cash cattle trade picked up at the end of the week. Cash in the South was at $228 live, down $2 from the previous week under very light volume. A very light dressed trade was reported in the North Friday at mostly $354 to $355, steady to $1 higher than last week’s weighted average, but $3 to $4 lower than most of the volume which was at $358, up $4 from the previous week’s business in Nebraska. Live cash sales at $228 were steady to $2 lower than the previous week in the North.

Boxed Beef Strengthens
The wholesale beef saw impressive gains Friday as choice rose $4.35 to $361.63 while select climbed $2.05 to $346.02. Nelson says cutouts were also higher for the week.

Can Cattle Futures Continue to Rally?
Cattle futures made new highs for the move but can the futures continue to move higher and fill the chart gap areas? Nelson says that may be in the cards. “We can probably fill the first gap directly ahead here for the fat cattle, roughly about $1.50 to $2 to $2.50 higher from here. For the feeders, we can suggest that we’ll probably fill this large gap we’re into right now, which still roughly about another six dollars on higher pricing.”

However, he’s not sure the market can retest the record highs from October. “I do think that the news flow from the prior weeks and months of higher imports could offset the decline in U.S. beef production set for 2026. So we can appreciate a little bit here. We cannot in our viewpoint get to those prior highs in the short term here.”

Lean Hogs Higher, Awaits Hogs and Pigs Report
Lean hog futures were also higher despite lower weekly closes. The market is getting spillover from higher cattle futures and higher cutouts, which were up $2.23 for the week. Nelson says the Lean Hog Index is also holding at $83.73, down just 15 cents coming into the session and indicates the cash market has likely bottomed.

The market is gearing up for USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Tuesday afternoon. The average trade guess for all hogs and pigs is 99%, with kept for breeding and market also around 99%. The key will be if the disease problems that are starting to flare up again are confirmed in the report.

Grains Higher on Short Covering
Grain markets were all higher Monday morning on short covering and technical buying. Soybeans were oversold after 27 cent losses last week and a correction of $1.20 off the highs Nov. 18. Flash sales also confirmed China was in for another 12.1 million bu. of soybeans for this marketing year and 2.4 million bu. for 2026-27. He says China has now purchased at least half of their commitments.

Nelson says corn and wheat futures were also getting some support from the delayed export sales report. It showed corn exports at 58.2 million bu. and total sales at 1.8 billion bu. up 30% from a year ago. Wheat exports were at 14 million bu. and now total 710 million bu. up 23% verses last year.

Geopolitical premium was only a slight factor in the rally in the grains as Russia attacked grain facilities in Ukraine ports again over the weekend, amid ongoing peace talks between the U.S., Ukraine and the EU.

Profit Taking in Cattle Quickly Fades: Corn, Soybeans Search for Lows

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 15:00:17 GMT

Cattle futures see some pressure early Friday with hogs and grains mixed.

Cattle See Profit Taking Early Friday

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures saw end of month profit taking on Thursday and some follow through selling early on Friday.

He thinks its just routine and healthy in a bull market but selling in the August live cattle was also triggered on Thursday by some deliveries and the basis flipped.

Varilek says those deliveries were reclaimed and so the futures quickly stablized with the strong cash market.

Cash Test Light

Cash news has been light but looks steady to stronger with some $245 paid in the North on Thursday, even a few $246 sales to a regional. Southern business has been mostly $242.

Combination of Factors Support the Bull Run in Cattle

Corrections have been fairly shallow and short lived in the cattle market because of the rare combination of factors that are fundamentally driving the futures and the cash market.

Varilek says everyone knows about the historically tight cattle herd but add on top of that strong consumer demand.

Plus, the continued closure of the Southern border to Mexican cattle has tightened supplies even further and resulted in historically low placements in feedyards in the South.

The 50% tariff on Brazilian beef imports had just added fuel to the fire as they provide a majority of the lean trim used for ground beef.

Cash Feeders on Fire

Another major bullish factors has been the record high prices being paid for cash feeders in the country.

Varilek says the market is red hot and so feeders are the leaders which is also indicative of a bull market.

With strong profit margins for feedlots and the tight numbers they have been willing to pay any price they have to to place in feed yards.

Lean Hogs See Chart Breakout

Lean hog futures have seen a chart breakout this week and deferred contracts have made new highs for the move.

Varilek thinks most of the buying has been technical in nature, not fundamentally driven, so the rally may be a hedge opportunity for producers.

Corn and Soybeans Trying to Bottom?

Corn futures have held key support this week and after testing the 20-day moving average on Thursday managed to close higher.

Varilek says the market is trying to confirm a low as the largest yield estimates are already priced in and the crop is likely getting smaller due to disease.

Soybeans are also trying to determine the size of the crop especially with the dry conditions in parts of the Eastern Corn Belt to finish the season.

What Could Break the Cattle Market? And What Will it Take to Confirm a Low in the Grains?

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 14:59:12 GMT

Grain and livestock futures opened lower on Friday but corn and wheat quickly tried to bounce.

Cattle Open Lower But Continue to See Resilence

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle saw some early profit taking pressure after contract and record highs again Thursday but also awaiting cash direction.

However, the cattle futures have been resilient and every break seems to get bought, which is a good sign of a bull market.

This week’s rally has been sponsored by ideas of $250 cash trade and producers have been digging in their heels so very little trade has occurred.

The other supportive factor is higher boxed beef values with the Choice cutouts up $15 for the week.

Varilek says boxed beef is getting a push from strong Labor Day buying and packer kill cuts but he thinks consumer demand continues to be robust.

What Could Break the Cattle Market?

Varilek says everyone wants to know when the market will top but its nearly impossible to predict.

He thinks the key will be when producers lose their leverage in the cash market and so far there haven’t been any signs of weakness.

“Rebuilding this herd will be a slow process because many older ranchers are looking at this as an opportunity to get out of the market and who is going to be able to enter the cattle business with replacement costs so high,” he explains.

Although the market will be watching for black swan events or the reopening of the Southern border to Mexican cattle imports as a possible cause.

Lean Hogs Consolidate

Lean hog futures have consolidated the last couple of sessions after hitting chart resistance and Varilek says the market is getting past the tight supply situation as they are hearing that slaughter numbers will start to climb as fall sets in.

October hog futures are setting at a discount to the cash market but he doesn’t think they will be able to close that gap.

Varilek isn’t in the camp that hogs are following cattle because if they were he thinks the hog market would have rallied even more.

Grains Trying to Confirm a Bottom?

Grain markets put in a strong performance on Thursday with short covering and help from strong exports and that left some wondering if the markets were trying to bottom.

Pressure returned overnight and on the opening as many contracts ran into chart resistance, including December corn at the 10-day moving average.

Varilek says it is too early to put a low in the corn and soybean markets and while there may be some positioning or buying ahead of the Aug. 12 WASDE, the seasonals and the record crop will both be headwinds for the markets.

Cattle Rally on Record Cash: Grains Try to Bounce But Can it Hold?

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:59:43 GMT

Grain and livestock futures started Monday mostly higher.

Cattle Futures Follow Record Cash Higher

Live and feeder cattle futures were higher to start Monday on the heels of record cash trade to end last week.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash cattle trade in the North live ranged from $242 to $247. Dressed trade ranged from $380 to $390, but the volume was at $383, up $3. The five area weighted average will be at a new record when printed by USDA.

With the big discount the futures are holding to cash that helped sponsor the recovery in the futures on Friday and the market was impressively able to shake off the selling in the financial sector tied to tariff fears.

Can Cattle Futures Retest Highs?

Will the cattle futures retest last week’s all-time highs and negate the bearish reversals left last Thursday?

Kooima cautions that prices are getting high enough that further increases may be a heavy lift.

Plus, packers are collectively looking at more kill cuts this week with a major announcing a 32 hour kill this week to try to prop up margins which have been in the red.

Volatility High in Cattle

Kooima says the volatility is high in the cattle complex and even a steep correction would not mean much from a percentage basis with prices as high as they are.

However, he cautions producers to exercise risk management to protect their margins.

Lean Hog Futures See Spillover

Lean hogs futures started higher early Monday as they felt spillover strength from the higher cattle complex.

However, Kooima is less optimistic about futures being able to continue to push higher, even with the tighter slaughter numbers tied to disease.

Cash prices were under pressure on Friday with the National Direct hogs down $2.76 and the Lean Hog Index was also down $.11 at $107.15, which will serve as a headwind for the market. However, cutouts did move higher by $2.94.

Grains Try to Recover

After an ugly lower week and month for corn and soybeans the market is seeing a slight technical or short covering bounce on Monday.

The key is can it hold with mostly favorable weather forecasts and the market already bearish about increased production and ending stocks in the Aug. 12 WASDE.

“I have done a fair bit of traveling in the region recently and the crop looks good everywhere I traveled,” he says.

Plus, there is still some uncertainty about tariff retaliation as the Aug. 7 implementation deadline kicks in for tariffs and there could be retaliation.

While there has been news accounts that there is “the makeup of a deal” with China. So far there is not solid proof of an extension of the tariff delay past Aug. 12 which is casting doubt on a deal being reached before harvest and the prime soybean export window.

Cattle Gap Into New Highs on Bullish Reports: Grains Fall on Weather

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 14:59:19 GMT

Cattle sharply higher, hogs mixed and grains lower early Monday.

Cattle Gap Into New Highs on Bullish Reports.

Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says both live and feeder cattle futures gapped higher into all-time and contract highs again on Monday morning on the heels of the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports.

The Cattle on Feed report showed on feed numbers at 98.4%, which was below estimates and the lowest inventory in eight years.

Placements were pegged at 92.1%, which was 6% below trade estimates and the lowest placements number for July in 16 years.

The Cattle inventory Report showed all cattle and calves at 99% verses July 1, 2023, and all of the other major categories were under 100%.

However, Kooima says if these numbers are compared to the January 1, 2025, inventory they showed a slight increase in numbers indicating there is some rebuilding of the herd.

As a result, he is cautioning producers to not get too bullish and instead he is advising risk management and hedging to protect these prices levels.

Cash Cattle Steady to Firmer

Adding fuel to the fire is cash trade was reported at steady to better money on Friday, although it was difficult Kooima says to get an accurate read with the lighter volume.

Southern deals were mostly $230-$232, steady to $1,$2 higher than the previous week’s weighted averages.

Northern dressed trade was mostly $380, with live sales at $240-$242, so steady to slightly higher.

Lean Hog Mixed to Start

Lean hog futures had a mixed start with the nearby contracts still unable to take out chart resistance despite the weekly slaughter trending 4.1% lower than last year, which is supportive.

Kooima says the disease issues that are causing tight numbers are an emerging story and are supporting cash and cutouts.

Yes, he says the market is also getting tired of the lack of movement on trade, especially as China and the U.S. kicked the tariff deadline down the road another 90 days.

Corn and Soybeans Make New Lows For the Move

Both corn and soybeans made new lows for the move again with old crop corn under $4 and soybeans under $10.

A trade framework with the EU was announced over the weekend but again contained very little indication of ag sales.

This also comes despite fresh flash export sales on corn again.

Kooima says weather has just been too good for corn and soybean production and is giving the funds no reason to buy the grain markets.

Cattle Rally Ahead of Reports: Old Crop Corn Below $4, Soybeans Below $10

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 22:27:46 GMT

Grain and hog markets end mostly lower on Friday, with cattle futures higher.

Cattle Markets Rally Ahead of Reports

Cattle futures rallied Friday ahead of the USDA’s Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says both live and feeder cattle futures had a nice recovery and got within striking distance of the all-time highs set earlier in the week.

Before the futures closed, there were reports of light cash trade in the North at steady to higher money.

The North trade ranged from $375 to $382 dressed, but the volume was mostly $380, up $1 from last week’s weighted average. Live sales ranged from $240 to $242.

After the markets closed some very light business was reported in the South on the Mandatory Report at $226 to $237.50 but the volume was mostly $230 to $232, steady to $2 higher than last week’s weighted averages.

Cattle on Feed Friendly

USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report was bullish with the number of cattle on feed at 98%, down over 1% from the average trade guess. Placements were at 92%, which was 6% below expectations and markets at 96% were in line with estimates.

This report also shows the breakout of heifers versus steers being placed and was at 94.6% on heifers, which indicates very minimal heifer retention he says.

Varilek is calling the report bullish.

Cattle Inventory Shows Slight Herd Rebuilding Compared to 2023

The Cattle Inventory Report showed All Cattle and Calves at 99% compared to July 1, 2023. All cows and heifers was at 99%, beef cows at 99%, Heifers at 98%, Beef Replacement Heifers at 97%.

Average trade guesses were mostly 98% coming into the report but since this was compared to two years ago Varilek says its hard to really make a fair comparison.

Looking at the July 1, 2025 numbers verses the Jan. 1, 2025 numbers they were up slightly but he says not enough to indicate more than mild expansion and the report still confirmed the historically low herd inventory.

So, Varilek thinks the markets will refocus their attention on the cash market for direction.

Lean Hogs Fall

Lean hog futures were mostly lower except the August contract, a mirror opposite of Thursday’s close.

The higher Lean Hog Index and higher cutouts failed to pull up the futures and Varilek says many contracts also ran into chart resistance.

Grains Discount Exports as Funds Sell

Grains were lower for the week with December corn down 8 3/4 cents, November soybeans fell 14 3/4, September hard red winter wheat dropped 2 1/2, September soft red winter lost 8 cents and September hard red spring wheat fell 9 cents.

Grains were also mostly lower on Friday with old crop corn falling below $4 and old crop soybeans below $10, despite some positive export news.

More flash sales were reported by USDA with 4.1 million bushels of new crop corn sold to Mexico, 5.5 million bushels to South Korea and 5.24 million bushels of new crop soybeans sold to Mexico.

Varilek says the funds returned as sellers this week as technically and fundamentally they had very little reason to buy any of the grain markets.

“The bulls tried to make the argument that the corn market needed to rally on the heat, but it’s the end of July and so its kind of late for that. Weather has been nearly ideal this growing season and so the funds are short, especially in corn, and they have no reason to buy,” he explains.

Trade frameworks released this week had very little substance and instead indicated it may be a while before producers see additional purchases so that failed to attract any buying either.

Without some major supply or demand shock Varilek thinks corn and soybeans are poised to retest last week’s lows before harvest.

Cattle Recover After Reversals: Corn, Soybeans Fall with Rains

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 15:00:16 GMT

Cattle start lower then quickly rebound, with hogs, corn and soybeans under pressure.

Cattle Try to Recover After Reversals Friday

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures opened lower on Monday on follow through selling after the bearish reversals scored on Friday.

However, the futures quickly recovered as the market has seen resilience with the steep discount the futures are holding to the cash and funds continuing to buy on the breaks.

Cash trade last week was steady to still a little firmer with the South at mostly $230, steady to $1 higher. The North live was at $240 to $242 live and dressed mostly $380, steady to $1 higher.

Yet Kooima says the market felt heavy and he thinks cash will be steady at best this week.

He points to some bearish seasonal fundamentals churning in the market and packers cutting kills due to poor margins and boxed beef has corrected well of the highs.

Kooima says we are in the dog days of summer when beef demand starts to turn towards hamburgers and hot dogs versus steaks.

Funds extended their long positon in live cattle as of last week’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report to over 132,000 long and in the feeder cattle funds are record long at nearly 38,000 contracts.

So Kooima says so far the funds have defended their long position but the market will need to avoid a black swan event that could spook the funds and trigger liquidation.

Lean Hogs See Profit Taking

After three higher closes and a higher week the lean hog futures have run into chart resistance and are seeing some profit taking to start the week.

Funds are still long nearly 115,000 contracts but sold around 17,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.

However, the Lean Hog Index was up another $.43 coming into the session and cutout values were up $1.47, which will help stem the selling.

Corn and Soybeans Fall

Corn and soybeans are seeing pressure early Monday on profit taking as new crop corn and soybeans both came within cents of gap areas on the charts and could not close above those levels.

The bigger drag on the market according to Kooima is the rains that fell in the Corn Belt over the weekend.

While there is heat in the forecast this week with a ridge of high pressure building in the rain will offset some of the negative effect.

Kooima expects high crop ratings to continue in this afternoons crop progress report from USDA and he thinks the corn looks in Iowa looks like the best crop in his career, so he doesn’t think an early harvest low was scored last week.

Cattle See Profit Taking After Record Highs: Corn Tries to Bounce

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 14:53:58 GMT

Cattle and hogs are lower early Monday, with corn higher and soybeans lower.

Cattle Due for a Correction

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are seeing some routine profit taking after hitting all-time and record highs again on Friday.

For the week August live cattle were up $8.15 and August feeder cattle were up nearly $16, so the markets are overbought and due for a correction he says.

Cash Cattle Are King!

The futures rally was fueled in part by higher than expected cash trade with Northern live sales at $238 to $240 and dressed prices mostly $380, up $10. Southern business was mostly $228-$230, up $4 to $6.

So, will cash trade be higher again this week?

Kooima says it’s possible with the extremely tight supplies and the leverage the feedlots and producers have, but the concern is boxed beef has started to break.

Choice boxed beef was down around $6 on Friday and is $18 off the highs and that puts packer margins back in the red and may cause them to slow the kill again this week.

Border Closure to Mexican Cattle Continues to Support Feeders

The feeder market has been red hot due to the lack of supply and that didn’t get any better with the news of the Southern border being closed to Mexican imports once again.

Hogs Follow Lower Cash and Cutouts, Tariff Uncertainty

Lean hog futures are under pressure with announced tariffs over the weekend of 30% on the EU and Mexico by Aug. 1. So far the EU is holding off on retaliation to try to work out a deal.

While most U.S. ag products are excluded due to USMCA compliance the heavily export dependent hog market doesn’t like the tariff uncertainty.

Cash trade was also lower on Friday by $5.74 on the National Direct hogs and cutouts were down another $.68.

So Kooima thinks the path of least resistance is lower.

Grains Mixed as Corn Tries to Bounce Off Contract Lows

Corn futures made new contract lows in both old and new crop overnight and have since bounced.

Most of that is technical as the funds are covering short positions with a bounce off chart support in an oversold market.

However, Kooima says there is no change in the weather and so the market may have a difficult time holding any gains with ideas of bigger yields overwhelming the trade.

Soybeans gave up early strength and are trading lower on spreads and with continued tariff concerns casting a shadow on demand.

Cattle Recover With Higher Cash: Grains Fall on CA Tariff News and Weather

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 14:49:12 GMT

Cattle futures are higher early Friday, as well as hogs. Grains are under pressure.

Nearby Live Cattle Negate Key Reversal With Higher Cash

Live and feeder cattle futures opened lower on Friday but quickly turned higher with strong cash news according to Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says cash bids are surfacing on Friday morning at $238 to $240 in the North.

Some sales were reported in the North late Thursday as high as $380 dressed to a regional and a handful of sales at $370 to $372 dressed and $235 live. In the South a few sales were reported at $225.

(At midday Friday, light volume in developing in the North at $238-$240 live, dressed at $380, $10 higher than last week’s weighted average in Nebraska. Southern live deals range $228 to $230, $4 to $6 higher.)

Live cattle futures had a disappointing close on Thursday making record highs on bullish news and then closing with nearby contracts lower putting in bearish key reversals.

It was a classic buy the rumor sell the fact trade says Varilek as the markets worked in bullish news including President Trump proposing a 50% tariff on Brazil imports, including beef.

Plus, USDA announced Wednesday evening the Southern border was once closing again to Mexican cattle imports due to concerns regarding New World Screwworm (NWS).

What Happens if the U.S. Gets New World Screwworm?

Currently there is no indication of when the border will reopen to Mexican cattle imports after a case of (NWS) was found just 370 miles from the U.S. border.

However, it may be inevitable that the pest gets into the U.S.

So how does the market react with a case if detected?

Varilek says it will initially be negative because the markets have never had to trade it before and there will be concerns that consumer demand may fall since this is a flesh eating pest that leave horrific images.

However, he says once that wears off the pest could be positive for the cattle market because it will again tighten the already historically cattle numbers.

“Producers needs to be prepared and make sure they are putting on hedges to protect their operation,” he says.

Lean Hogs Back Higher

Lean hog futures were also higher early Friday in tandem with cattle, but still seeing buying by funds on the breaks and the Lean Hog Index was also slightly higher reversing its lower trend.

Varilek thinks the market is being supported by disease and supplies issues and points to some $95 feeder pig prices as evidence of that.

Funds continue to be record long in the lean hogs and so far have defended that position on breaks.

Grains See Risk Off Selling From Weather and Canadian Tariff News

Grains and outside markets are trading risk off as President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, effective Aug. 1. An exclusion for goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade was expected to stay in place.

However, Varilek says it still creates uncertainty in the markets and is a signal of rising tensions between the neighbors.

Weather has also been ideal and even dry areas of Northern Illinois received some rain over night with more in the forecast, which may also be pressuring grains ahead of the WASDE Report at 11:00 am.

Varilek doesn’t think the report will provide much meaningful news and even if it did it would not be traded long with the weather forecast so perfect for the Corn Belt and promoting ideas of a bumper crop.

Cattle Extend Gains On Better Cash News: Grains Rally on China Deal or Short Covering?

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:44:23 GMT

Cattle are higher early Thursday as well as the grain markets, with lean hogs mostly lower.

Cattle Extend Gains on Better Cash News

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trading higher building on Wednesday’s big reversal which was initially triggered by trade news but then better than expected cash trade added to the rally.

Varilek says some cash trade Thursday morning has been reported at $225, which steady to slightly better than last week’s weighted average and above expectations. That was true with Northern trade at $230 to $232.

The bulk of Northern dressed trade this week has been at $368 to $370, steady to $2 lower than last week’s weighted averages. Southern live deals on Wednesday were at $222 to $224, also steady to $2 lower than last week’s weighted averages. A little more light trade will likely take place at some point today.

Cattle futures were lower early Wednesday still reacting to news the border would be gradually reopened to Mexican imports starting July 7.

So, does the strength in the futures mean the market has priced that news in?

Varilek isn’t confident that’s the case as there is still uncertainty regarding how many cattle will be coming across the border.

Other positive news includes, a strike has been avoided at the Amarillo, Texas Tyson Foods Beef Processing Plant. Union members voted yesterday, and 93% of the voters approved a new contract, that includes a wage increase, more paid time off, expanded retirement benefits, ratification of bonuses and health insurance benefits that begin when hired.

Lean Hogs Slide with Lower Cutouts and LHI

Lean hog futures are lower early with another $1.55 drop in the pork cutouts and the Lean Hog Index was also down $.77 at $110.22. Plus weekly exports were disappointing at only 27,100 MT this morning.

However, Varilek thinks the market will be well supported by the tighter numbers moving forward associated with disease and on hopes for more trade with China.

Grains Continue Rally on China Hopes or Just Short Covering?

Grains are mostly higher with corn and soybeans extending some nice gains on Wednesday.

The rally came on the heels of news of a trade deal with Vietnam but also speculation President Trump will be making an announcement of a China deal at the rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds this evening. President has hinted he was going to be releasing some positive news for farmers.

However, Varilek thinks the grain markets are also seeing short covering or short profit taking heading into the holiday and a three day weekend, especially after corn made new contract lows and soybeans made new lows for the move on Tuesday and were oversold.

Exports this morning were at 21.0 million bu. for corn old crop and 37 million bu. new crop, soybeans at 17 million bu. old and 8.8 million new, with wheat at a strong 21.5 million bu.

Private exporters also reported flash sales of 5.9 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations for 2024-25, 8.3 million bu. of soybeans to unknown for 2024/25. Plus, 195,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown. 45,000 MT for 2024/25 marketing year and 150,000 MT for 2025/2026.

Cattle Tank on MX Border Reopening: Corn and Soybeans Also Fall

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 14:46:27 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans are all lower early Tuesday with hogs trying to recover after a lower start.

Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures had a gap lower opening this morning on news from USDA of a phased re-opening of the border to Mexican cattle starting July 7.

He says it will start in the South in Douglas, AZ and then two ports in New Mexico will reopen in July, followed by Del Rio and Laredo, TX in August.

The market was anticipating the border would be closed to cattle imports until possibly the end of the year to keep New World Screwworm out of the U.S. so this is a shock to the market.

Kooima says it may take a day or so to work the news in.

“I’m gonna be cautious here. I don’t think this is probably just a one -day thing. You have the funds that probably you know have close to half of the open interest in the feeders, especially. So they’re gonna need a bigger reason to say we’re gonna stay put with what we got. Otherwise if this is gonna continue the in the fashion that we have and start doing some technical damage,” he explains.

Cash trade was lower last week with the weighted average at $229.51, down $5.37 and the market is anticipating a soft cash market again in this holiday shortened week.

However, the futures are still holding a discount, which should be supportive.

Lean hog futures opening lower Tuesday with cattle but then saw some short covering in the back months as the market is seeing disease issues as supportive.

The market has seen a correction off the contract highs which coincided with the Hogs and Pigs Report showing a larger herd than anticipated at 100.3%, but Kooima thinks the cooling off of cash and cutouts had more to do with the correction.

Row crop futures are lower with corn making new contract lows again as Kooima says weather still looks non-threatening and crop ratings improved 3% to 73% good to excellent on corn and remained at 66% on soybeans.

Additionally, there was not bullish catalyst in Monday’s USDA Reports as most numbers came in close to expectations.

Cattle Recover on ICE News: Soybeans Try to Extend Rally but What's Wrong with Corn?

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 15:14:02 GMT

Cattle and hogs are higher early Monday. Soybeans and bean oil are extending gains, while corn and wheat fall.

Can Cattle Fully Recover?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures started the day higher in recovery mode after a poor technical close on Friday and a bearish reversal lower for the week.

Cattle markets are seeing some relief from news that President Trump is going to exempt farms and meat processing plants from the ICE raided and deportation orders.

The futures are also getting spillover from the rally in the financial markets which were down on Friday due to rising geopolitical uncertainty tied to escalation of the fighting between Iran and Israel.

Can the cattle markets fully recover from last week’s reversal as it has so many times before?

Kooima says the discount the futures are holding to the cash will be supportive but it will all depend on what level this week’s cash trade develops.

The South was sharply higher last week at mostly $235. However, the North traded mostly steady on a dressed basis at $380 and Kooima says there was even some $240 live sale prices to a major, which was $2 lower than last week’s volume.

“So it will be interesting to see where this week’s cash trade falls out,” he says.

Boxed beef cutouts have continued strong which should prompt higher cash but the key will be if the packers have enough inventory to get through the peak demand for July 4th.

The funds or managed money are also long nearly 138,000 contracts and its unknown if the recent technical action was bearish enough to create more liquidation.

Hogs Make More Contract Highs

Lean hog futures gapped higher on the open into new contract highs, also in response to the ICE news.

The key will be if the markets can continue to move higher now that July is the spot month and holds a signficant premium to the Lean Hog Index.

Can Soybeans Keep Rallying?

Soybeans continue to rally with soybean oil exploding higher on EPA’s surprised increased biomass based diesel blending mandates for 2026 announced on Friday.

The soybean complex is under expanded limits with the limit up close in bean oil on Friday.

Soybean oil gapped higher on the opening Sunday night and as of early Monday soybean is up 350-points.

Kooima isn’t sure if soybeans can get through overhead resistance areas on the charts even with the help of bean oil.

What is the Problem With Corn?

Meanwhile, corn has fallen lower with wheat and is seeing continued pressure from favorable weather and ideas of improved crop ratings in USDA’s crop progress report.

Corn was a reluctant follower of the big rally in soybeans, wheat and crude oil on Friday and has continued to disappoint, despite strong demand.

Kooima says the technical action Monday morning is also ugly as contracts are retesting recent lows.

Beat the Heat: Essential Tips for Cooling Cattle Effectively

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 12:29:33 GMT

Cattle incapable of relieving themselves of high temperatures experience heat stress. Humans alleviate overheating through sweating, but Kansas State University Beef Extension Veterinarian A.J. Tarpoff says cattle do not have that option.

“Heat stress coping behaviors is what we see when cattle are adapting to warmer temperatures,” he says. “Whenever we get hot, we sweat to maintain homeostasis. For livestock species, and especially cattle, that capability gets overwhelmed.”

Tarpoff adds, “They dissipate heat in other ways like increasing their respiratory rate (breathing) by panting.”

Besides panting, producers identify heat stress by their increased standing, large groups of animals bunching up close to water tanks and crowding in shaded areas.

“They’re trying to get increased airflow by standing, but they actually end up using each other as shade which is counter-productive,” Tarpoff said.

High temperatures and humidity, slow wind speeds and increased solar radiation comprise the four weather conditions contributing to heat stress.

“When we’re comfortable, cattle might not be and vice versa. We really need to consider those four key parameters,” Tarpoff says. “We have an animal comfort index that uses the four of them to get a feel on how cattle are experiencing their environment.” Monitor the animal comfort index in Kansas through the K-State Mesonet.

Correctly managing heat stress has proven to be essential for maximizing animal wellbeing and performance, according to Tarpoff.

“It is one of those critical chores just as important as feeding or making sure the animals have water. Whether we are asking them to be good cows or an animal to produce beef in a feedlot, we need to put them in scenarios where they’re more comfortable because then they are more productive,” he says.

Tarpoff urges operations housing their cattle in dry lots to keep it simple when developing a plan to lessen the consequences of heat stress.

“Whenever it comes to heat stress, it’s back to the basics: feed and water. Water intake can nearly double as temperatures rise from 70 to 90 degrees (Fahrenheit). We need more water access, flow and availability for those animals,” he says.

He adds: “We might be able to modify our feeding times to alleviate some of these stressors. Whenever we feed cattle, we feed the rumen microbes, and that comes at a cost called the heat of fermentation. We can feed later in the evening, so the digestion happens during the cooler nighttime hours.”

Producers often construct shades to cool off cattle in times of unrelenting heat. A recent study conducted by K-State researchers looking at effects of shade on heat stress revealed that shade structures can impact more than just animal temperature.

“They are a piece of infrastructure,” Tarpoff says. “That two-year trial showed added benefits of investing in shades. We saw increased feed efficiency, increased growth rate and increased average daily gain. We also saw reduced panting rates and water consumption needs by over a gallon per head per day.”

Additionally, bedding pens with straw can reduce the pen floor temperature by 25 degrees and fence-line sprinklers help lower ground temperatures and keep cattle cool if used in the overnight hours, according to Tarpoff.

Your Next Read: Data-Driven Approach to Breeding Decisions Ensures Consistent Bulls

Cattle Markets Shatter Records Early: Grains Fail to Extend Last Week's Gains

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 14:53:20 GMT

Cattle futures are higher early Monday, with hogs mixed and grain markets mostly lower.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Monday morning, set back then rallied into new all-time highs again.

The futures market was pulled up by cash cattle trade, which continued to shatter previous records last week.

Cash trade developed in the South first and appreciated all the way through Friday.

Cash in the South settled out at mostly $230-$232 live, but got as high as $235 on Friday. The North traded $242 to $244 live on Friday as well, up $7 to $9 from the previous week.. Dressed prices were mostly $380, up $13.

Kooima thinks the packers are trying to get inventory lined up to get through the July 4 grilling season beef demand and that’s why they have been so aggressive.

He is watching slaughter rates as the packers have already cut kills the last several weeks to try to salvage their margins, which are deep in the red.

However, there have continued to be black swan and unconfirmed rumors circulating that have made the market nervous, including a major packing plant going dark.

He says open interest in the cattle futures dropped 18,000 contracts on Friday with a big portion tied to hedge lifting with June options expiring.

Where do the futures project to now that they are into all-time highs and there is no resistance on the charts?

Kooima says the June contract had a projected high of $227.50 based on a gap area projection and took that out Monday morning, so the upside is difficult to predict. Futures are still at a massive discount to cash which will continue to be supportive.

Lean hog futures are mixed early Monday but deferred contracts continue to make new contract highs. The hogs are seeing spillover from the rally in the cattle market but are trading their own fundamentals including the move up in the Lean Hog Index and cutouts, which are both at levels not seen since August of 2023.

Grain markets failed to extend last week’s gains with even the soybeans struggling to hold.

The higher week in Dec corn and wheat may have been short covering and some weather premium being added while soybeans traded optimism about the China U.S. talks taking place today.

However, the market still doesn’t have a big enough weather threat to keep the momentum going he says.

Cattle Futures Make All-Time Highs, Grains Range Bound

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 14:38:30 GMT

Cattle open higher then fade, hogs rally, grains mixed early Friday.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live cattle futures gapped higher on the opening Friday and made all-time highs once again.

Varilek says prices have exceeded even the most bullish expectations.

“I mean, it was a year ago, we’re talking possible $3 feeders and $220 fats, and those felt like astronomical prices. And people might have thought we were crazy about it, but now here we are and we’re higher than that and it’s, it’s, you know, through all of the numbers that even the, the most bullish people were talking about.”

How much higher can the market go, what technical signals is he watching and do the technicals even matter in this type of a market?

Varilek says, " I don’t know if it’s a spike top or not, but you did have your third exhaustion gap today. You had a third gap in the feeders. So maybe that’s that exhaustion gap. I think there was people waiting for that to try and sell it. So we’re due for a little bit of correction here possibly, but that cash is just too hard to ignore that it just hangs on.”

The futures are chasing cash which developed at some record levels for a 7th week with Southern trade at mostly $232, up $10 from last week. Northern cash live was at mostly $240, up $5, but there was some $242 paid as well. Dressed prices came in at mostly $380, up $13.

So far this week, live trade in Kansas and Texas has had a range of $225 to $232, $3 to $10 higher than last week’s weighted averages. Dressed deals in Nebraska and Iowa have been done at mostly $380, $13 higher than the prior week’s weighted average basis Nebraska.

Varilek says packer margins are deep in the red and they are still trying to gain back leverage but right now the cash market is red hot.

With packers losing so much money there are underlying fears of plant closures but Varilek says in the last bull cycle in 2015 the one plant that did shutter did so very quietly.

Meanwhile, Cargill announced its investing $90 million for more automation at its Fort Morgan, CO beef facility.

With futures so far under cash it is making it difficult for producers to hedge their risk but with closeouts topping $500 a head in some cases risk management is still important. He says puts are the best marketing strategy.

“We’re insuring a mansion now, not a trailer house,” he reminds producers.

Lean hog futures are rallying Friday morning with deferred months back into contract high areas but the front end of the board has been pushed by strong cash and cutouts, plus tight supplies.

Both cutouts and the LHI are at levels not seen since August of 2023.

Funds have also been buying and Varilek says open interest in hog futures is up over 65,000 contracts in the last month.

Grain markets are mixed early Friday after seeing some gains earlier in the week.

Varilek says the markets tried to correct their oversold status with some short covering and added weather premium earlier in the week.

Soybeans are also seeing some support from news the U.S. and China are moving ahead on talks after a productive call between the two presidents.

However, Varilek says none of the grain markets have been able to take out resistance areas on the upper end of the chart patterns and are essentially range bound looking for a bullish enough story to move past those area.

Cattle Futures Chase Record Cash: Soybeans Fall and Corn Follows

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:45:54 GMT

Ag markets are mostly higher early Monday, except soybeans.

Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live and feeder cattle futures area rallying chasing record cash.

Prices in the North were $234 to mostly $235 live last week, with some trades late Friday up to $237 in Western Nebraska. Many of those prices could be locked in through the end of June. Northern dressed sales had a range of $360 to $376, mostly $370, $8 higher than the previous week’s weighted average, basis Nebraska.

The South traded $221 to mostly $223, up $2 to $3, but up to $225 late Friday.

Kooima says the basis is historically wide with cash nearly $25 over futures in some of the deferred contract months is making it difficult for producers to use the board for risk management.

Boxed beef values for the Choice cutouts are above $366 and the second highest levels since COVID, indicating continued strong demand.

Today is the first day of expanded limits in cattle futures with live cattle going from $6.50 to $7.25 and feeder cattle limits expanding from $8.25 to $9.25.

Kooima says this is not beneficial for cattle producers or hedgers.

“When is the last time cattle futures have been limit up? It’s been forever, yet we were just limit down the day the reciprocal tariffs were announced so I don’t see this as positive,” he explains.

Lean hog futures are higher except June getting pushed by strong cash and cutouts and fund buying.

Cutout values on Friday were up $2.60 at $107.22, a new high for the year and the Lean Hog Index was up $.71 coming into Monday’s session at $94.84.

Meanwhile, funds have piled in to buy the lean hog futures with their long position now at nearly 95,000 contracts and open interest rose nearly 65,000 contracts during May.

So, Kooima says there may be more upside and he’s targeting $112 on the June contract.

Corn followed wheat higher early in the session and saw some short covering but then fell with soybeans.

While soybeans fall with China trade concerns and favorable weather.

Cattle Rally Early Friday Chasing Exploding Cash: Corn and Soybeans Weak

Fri, 30 May 2025 14:44:31 GMT

Cattle and hogs are rallying early Friday, with corn and soybeans weak.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are chasing exploding cash.

Another week of record prices with Northern live sale prices $234-$235 live with some booked out all the way through the end of June. Dressed prices were at $368 to $370, up $6 to $8 from last week’s weighted average, a few deals as high as $375. In the South cash developed at $221-223, up $1-$3.

The basis is now historically wide with the June board nearly $20 under cash and will have to play catch up at some point.

However, Varilek says the board has been a bit reluctant to make a big move higher with concerns about New World Screwworm entering the U.S. and the impact that could have on consumer demand or at least the perception of beef.

Meanwhile, USDA has infused $21 million into sterile fly production in a plant in Mexico to help safeguard the spread of (NWS) into the U.S.

Despite trade talk the border will remain closed to Mexican animal imports through the end of the year, USDA has said it will re-evaluate the status every 30 days.

Still, with the border shut Varilek says the cash market for feeder is also exploding due to tight supplies.

Lean hog futures were also higher early following the strength in cash and cutouts as Varilek says packers are scrambling to source hogs due to a marketing hole created by disease. The market is holding up fairly well with news the China U.S. trade talks have stalled.

Corn and soybeans see some weakness Friday as funds continue to sell on favorable near term weather and trade uncertainty.

An appeals court has ruled to leave the tariffs in place for 10 days until a formal hearing can be held.

Exports were poor for soybeans Friday morning 5.4 million bu. old crop and 1.2 million bu. new crop. Corn exports were stronger at 36.1 million bu. old and 1.2 million new.

USDA also reported flash export sales totaling 8.3 million bu. to unknown destinations, with 2/3rds of the tender old crop.

However, Varilek says the demand news is not enough to overcome the idea of larger supplies of corn and soybeans just weeks away.

Cattle Fall Despite Record Cash, Neutral COF: Corn and Wheat Weak

Tue, 27 May 2025 14:57:06 GMT

Cattle and hogs are mostly lower early Tuesday along with corn and wheat, soybeans bounce.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are seeing some early weakness despite last week’s record cash and neutral USDA Cattle on Feed Report compared to expectations.

However, it may be another break that gets bought.

Kooima says the Cattle on Feed Report placements came in at 97.4%, which was actually the lowest figure in the last 10 years, next to the COVID year. On feed was at 98.5% and marketings at 97.5%.

The state by state breakouts also showed that states like Nebraska and Iowa had higher placements compared to a year ago, which he says is showing the migration of cattle to the North where cash has been stronger.

Cash last week was at mostly $230, with a few $231 in the North and Kooima says the South saw very little trade at the $220 level.

As a result, he thinks cash will develop early in the South this week as packers are short bought and the trend will be higher as the South attempts to catch up with the North.

Cattle did have higher weekly closes last week but Kooima says the futures need to retest the record highs to be able to fully negate the key reversals.

Lean hog futures are lower with cattle and continue to narrow up the futures premium to the lean hog index.

However, Kooima says growing disease issues with PEDV are making isowean prices shoot higher and that could eventually support buying in the deferred contracts again.

Corn is lower with the break in the wheat market and mostly favorable weather.

Winter wheat production areas like Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma got some much needed rain and there’s more in the forecast so wheat is taking out weather premium.

Soybeans are slightly higher on spread trade and following some strength in the soybean oil market.

EU Tariffs Hit Ag Markets: Yet Cattle See Improving Technicals, Higher Cash

Fri, 23 May 2025 14:43:52 GMT

Grain and livestock futures are mostly lower early Friday.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says ag markets are seeing red with the threat of 50% tariffs on all EU imports starting June 1 and spillover from the lower stock market.

However, this week’s technical action in the cattle futures has been better and the long term uptrend lines are still intact.

Varilek says cash has traded higher with some $230 to even $231 live sale prices paid to a major packer in the North.

The volume has been light so there may be more cash trade that develops but it may not happen until after the Cattle on Feed report.

USDA’s Cattle of Feed numbers come out this afternoon and early guesses are 98.5% on feed, with placements at 96.8% and marketings at 96.7%.

However, he says the report will need to be bullish so the futures do not sell off.

Lean hog futures see additional selling pressure trying to narrow the gap between the futures premium to the cash.

The lower action Thursday was disappointing considering the strong weekly exports and China was in for 8,600 MT of pork.

Grain markets are mostly lower with corn and soybeans seeing some profit taking ahead of a three day weekend.

Those markets have had a nice rally and are also running up into chart resistance.

Varilek says the market has put in some weather premium this week with concerns about planting delays in areas of the Corn Belt and the hot dry extended forecast but he thinks its too early to get overly bullish about grains just based on weather.

Grains Sink Early Monday: Cattle Make New Highs in Cash and Futures

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 14:49:18 GMT

Grain futures are all lower early Monday, with cattle and hogs higher.

Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says both live and feeder cattle futures are making new contract and all-time highs on last week’s record cash trade.

Cash developed late Friday in the South at $212-$213, up $2-$3.

Northern trade was mostly $342-$343 dressed, up $5-$6 and $215-$218 live.

Kooima says showlists are tight again this week especially in the North and so he is anticipating another higher week of cash this week.

He says the tight supplies are giving the feedlots leverage over the packers even though they have cut kills the last several weeks.

Cattle slaughter was only 555,000 head last down 21,000 from the previous week and down 59,000 from the previous year.

Funds have been buying in the cattle futures as well and as of Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report had repurchased 14,000 contracts in the live cattle are are now long over 120,000.

Feeder cattle futures are also reacting to news over the weekend that USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has sent a letter to Mexican government officials threatening to shut the U.S. border to imports once again if Mexico doesn’t adhere to U.S. guidelines to prevent New World Screwworm from entering the U.S.

Lean hogs reversed a lower opening to make new highs for the move as funds have been piling in to buy and are now over 58,000 contracts long.

Cash and cutouts have also been supportive however.

Grains are all lower on weather and planting progress across the Corn Belt.

While rains are still expected in parts of the Corn Belt this week, the extended forecast looks drier for the areas that need a break from rain for planting to proceed.

Meanwhile, dry areas of the Western Corn Belt have received beneficial rain and so have hard red winter wheat production areas.

As a result, Kansas City wheat futures are scoring new contract lows Monday morning which is also an anchor on the corn market.

March Storm Challenges Midwest Beef Producers

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 20:21:41 GMT

Midwest producers enjoyed springlike temperatures the past few days, but old man weather decided it was time for one last blast of winter before the first day of spring, March 20. As of 11 a.m., Interstate 70 in Kansas is closed west of Salina to the Colorado border and Interstate 80 in Nebraska is closed from Lincoln to North Platte.

Kristian Rennert, a cattle rancher from Elm Creek, Neb., says extreme winds and a blizzard rolled in late last night after a warm, pleasant day yesterday. He explained the wind and blowing snow challenge he faced getting to his calving facility 2 miles from his house.

“I had to bring a couple calves into a shed to warm them up, and now I need to get them back out with their mothers once the weather improves,” Rennert says.

Rennert and his neighbor manage their Charolais cattle operations together, calving around 400 cows. They are about two-thirds done calving.

“It was absolutely a beautiful day yesterday. The last couple days been phenomenal,” Rennert says. “A couple days ago it was 80 degrees. It’s just amazing that from four o’clock in the afternoon it was 60 some degrees and then two o’clock the next morning it was a full out, raging blizzard. It’s crazy that we can go to such extremes in such a short time.”

Nebraska rancher Kolby Van Newkirk from Oshkosh was also calving Tuesday night in the blizzard.

“We didn’t get much moisture with the storm,” he says. “We maybe got 1 or 2 inches, but since probably 5 p.m. Tuesday night, I would say the sustained wind has been 30 mph plus with gusts of 50 plus.”

Van Newkirk Herefords pair up first-calf heifers and keep in larger areas to watch for health after calving.

(Van Newkirk Herefords)

The Van Newkirks are located on the southern edge of the Nebraska Sandhills. They started calving the first of February and are about 90% done.

He says the key to the calf survival and success is getting the newborns up and nursing.

“It is important the calves get colostrum and a good start to life,” he adds.

Van Newkirk also stresses the importance of closely monitoring the calves to ensure they are getting up and nursing multiple times per day, especially during and after severe storms.

Along with calving and feeding cows, these swings in weather also affect bull sales. The cold weather snap in February had a negative impact on his bull sale reducing attendance, Rennert says. Likewise, several Kansas and Nebraska bull sales scheduled for today, March 19, have been postponed due to the weather.

Kristian Rennert, Nebraska producer, brings calves in the barn to warm up during a March blizzard.

(Rennert)

Looking ahead, Rennert says he is most concerned about potential health problems in the newborn calves, such as enterotoxemia, scours and pneumonia. They group the pairs into smaller groups of around 50 to better manage their health. While the current temperatures are not extremely cold, the sudden weather change is still a challenge.

“After this storm, and then dealing with the wind, you just have to keep a really close eye on these calves,” Van Newkirk summarizes. “Make sure they’re getting up and sucking, at least twice a day. Keep an eye out for scours or dehydration.”

Rennert is hopeful the weather will improve in the next few days, with temperatures expected to rebound into the 50s and 60s.

Your Next Read: Weather Swings Bring Mud and Concerns About Calf Health