Vietnam

Cattle Extend Gains On Better Cash News: Grains Rally on China Deal or Short Covering?

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:44:23 GMT

Cattle are higher early Thursday as well as the grain markets, with lean hogs mostly lower.

Cattle Extend Gains on Better Cash News

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trading higher building on Wednesday’s big reversal which was initially triggered by trade news but then better than expected cash trade added to the rally.

Varilek says some cash trade Thursday morning has been reported at $225, which steady to slightly better than last week’s weighted average and above expectations. That was true with Northern trade at $230 to $232.

The bulk of Northern dressed trade this week has been at $368 to $370, steady to $2 lower than last week’s weighted averages. Southern live deals on Wednesday were at $222 to $224, also steady to $2 lower than last week’s weighted averages. A little more light trade will likely take place at some point today.

Cattle futures were lower early Wednesday still reacting to news the border would be gradually reopened to Mexican imports starting July 7.

So, does the strength in the futures mean the market has priced that news in?

Varilek isn’t confident that’s the case as there is still uncertainty regarding how many cattle will be coming across the border.

Other positive news includes, a strike has been avoided at the Amarillo, Texas Tyson Foods Beef Processing Plant. Union members voted yesterday, and 93% of the voters approved a new contract, that includes a wage increase, more paid time off, expanded retirement benefits, ratification of bonuses and health insurance benefits that begin when hired.

Lean Hogs Slide with Lower Cutouts and LHI

Lean hog futures are lower early with another $1.55 drop in the pork cutouts and the Lean Hog Index was also down $.77 at $110.22. Plus weekly exports were disappointing at only 27,100 MT this morning.

However, Varilek thinks the market will be well supported by the tighter numbers moving forward associated with disease and on hopes for more trade with China.

Grains Continue Rally on China Hopes or Just Short Covering?

Grains are mostly higher with corn and soybeans extending some nice gains on Wednesday.

The rally came on the heels of news of a trade deal with Vietnam but also speculation President Trump will be making an announcement of a China deal at the rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds this evening. President has hinted he was going to be releasing some positive news for farmers.

However, Varilek thinks the grain markets are also seeing short covering or short profit taking heading into the holiday and a three day weekend, especially after corn made new contract lows and soybeans made new lows for the move on Tuesday and were oversold.

Exports this morning were at 21.0 million bu. for corn old crop and 37 million bu. new crop, soybeans at 17 million bu. old and 8.8 million new, with wheat at a strong 21.5 million bu.

Private exporters also reported flash sales of 5.9 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations for 2024-25, 8.3 million bu. of soybeans to unknown for 2024/25. Plus, 195,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown. 45,000 MT for 2024/25 marketing year and 150,000 MT for 2025/2026.

Trade Dominance or Trade Domino? Trump Announces Trade Deal with Vietnam

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 19:48:15 GMT

Less than a week before the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on many reciprocal tariffs with several countries is set to expire, President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam on Wednesday. The deal, according to Trump, allows the U.S. “total access” to Vietnam’s markets with a zero tariff on U.S. products exported to Vietnam.

A deal with Vietnam could benefit U.S. commodities that face higher tariffs, including fruits, nuts, pork and beef exports.

The president made the announcement on his Truth Social site, saying Vietnam will pay the U.S. a 20% tariff on any goods sent into the U.S. and a 40% tariff on any goods that originate in another country and then are transferred to Vietnam before coming to the U.S.

🚨 pic.twitter.com/i35oMvbEvW
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 2, 2025

When trade talks started with Vietnam last month, Vietnamese officials had pledged to boost purchases of American goods, including farm products and energy. However, no specific trade volumes were announced with the trade deal.

What’s the potential for agriculture? Dan Basse, founder and president of AgResource Company, says this could help gain greater access for fruits, nuts and horticulture products, which have tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%, versus corn, soybeans and soybean meal.

“In the case of corn and soybeans and meal and wheat, we’re talking about tariffs today that are 1% to 2%, that’ll go to zero, so it’s something, don’t get me wrong, it’s 5¢ or 10¢ in a bushel of corn, maybe 7¢ to 12¢ on beans, but it is not the panacea that’s going to get a lot of Vietnamese demand going forward,” Basse says.

The trade deal came as a bit of a surprise on Wednesday. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that while the focus of the administration is getting the One Big Beautiful Bill across the finish line this week, that focus shifts back to trade next week. Bessent warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a deadline approaches.

Is this trade deal the start of a domino of trade deals that could fall ahead of next week’s deadline? It’s possible, but Stand Grain’s Joe Vaclavik says many more are needed to shift the sentiment in the commodity market to a bullish tone.

“Get a trade deal with China that mirrors Phase One, that includes large purchase agreements, then it’s a game changer,” Vaclavik says. “But anything less than that, as of right now, I don’t think is going be a market mover or a game changer from a supply and demand standpoint.”

Vaclavik agrees with Basse, in that Vietnam alone isn’t a huge demand story for corn and soybeans.

“I think you’re going to see a lot of these announcements like with Vietnam where it sounds great, but Vietnam consumed 16 million metric tons of corn last year. That’s not enough to really put them on the map as something that’s going to move the market. You need a China, a country who consumes 300 million metric tons of corn per year to come in and agree to agree and also agree to buy. And that’s how you move the needle.”

Push for More Protein?

Protein exports are also an area of opportunity. U.S. dairy exports have shown strong growth into Vietnam, with increases in nonfat dry milk powder, whey, and lactose.

As for meat exports, figures from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) show shipments to Vietnam in 2024 included:

5,052 metric tons of beef and beef variety meat valued at $43 million
and 4,662 metric tons of pork and variety meat with a value of $10 million.

The U.S. current ranks fifth in top exporters to Vietnam, but it’s key to note the U.S. is the largest trading partner with Vietnam that does not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). With talks of tariff reductions, it could hep make U.S. pork more competitively priced compared to big competitors like Brazil, the European Union and Canada. Those countries currently have duty-free access to Vietnam.

The current tariff rates vary by product, including:

Chilled beef carcass/ ½ carcass: 30%
Chilled beef bone-in: 20%
Chilled beef boneless: 14%,
Frozen beef bone-in/frozen carcass 20%
Frozen boneless beef: 14%
Chilled pork: 22%
Frozen pork: 10%
Offal: 8%.

Fact sheet on meat exports to Vietnam

(USMEF )

Vietnam’s Growing Population

Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook visited Vietnam earlier this year and saw firsthand the potential growth. Vietnam has a 100 million people and a growing middle class looking to add protein to their diet. With limited soybean crushing capacity, the country currently depends on soybean meal imports for their livestock and aquaculture feed needs.

She reports the country’s soy processing industry is small with only four plants, which import 2 million tons of soybeans annually, including from the U.S. According to Rook’s reporting, that could be an area where soybean exports could grow, fueling Vietnam’s growing aquaculture and livestock production.

You can read and watch Rook’s in-depth reporting here .

U.S. Rejects Vietnam’s Bid for ‘Market Economy’ Status in Blow to Trade Ties

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 13:00:47 GMT

The U.S. rejected Vietnam’s bid for ‘market economy’ status in blow to trade ties. The classification would have boosted exports and reduced tariffs on goods from country that is rising supply chain alternative to China.

The U.S. Department of Commerce cited several reasons for maintaining Vietnam’s classification as a “non-market economy” (NME):
• State intervention: Despite economic reforms, the U.S. Commerce Department noted that there is still extensive government involvement in Vietnam’s economy. This includes control over pricing, currency, and trade practices, which distort market prices and costs.
• Anti-dumping concerns: The NME status allows the U.S. to use prices and costs from third countries to calculate anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese imports. This practice is used to counteract what the U.S. sees as unfair trade advantages stemming from Vietnam’s economic structure.

The Decision has Several Consequences:

• Tariffs and duties: Without market economy status, Vietnamese goods are subject to higher anti-dumping duties, making them less competitive in the U.S. market.
• Investor uncertainty: The rejection introduces uncertainty for foreign investors, potentially impacting foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam.
• Negotiation power: Vietnam may find it challenging to negotiate favorable tariff rates and trade terms with the U.S.

The U.S. remains cautious about Vietnam’s economic practices and the potential for Chinese companies to use Vietnam as a backdoor to circumvent U.S. tariffs.

The Vietnamese government expressed regret over the decision, highlighting the positive economic reforms and policy commitments it has made. Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade argued that the upgrade would have been a fair recognition of these efforts.

U.S. Meat Product Showcase Connects Exporters with Southeast Asian Importers

Wed, 19 Oct 2022 20:41:12 GMT

U.S. red meat suppliers met face-to-face with buyers from the Philippines and Vietnam at the U.S. Meat Products Showcase, adding a personal connection between U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) members and exporters with importers and processors in the southeast Asian region.

Originally slated for 2020, the USMEF event, along with USDA, the National Pork Board and the Beef Checkoff Program support, was delayed due to COVID restrictions. However, Dave Rentoria, USMEF representative in the Philippines, says now is a great time to bring the importers and suppliers together as the economies rebound and events are allowed at full capacity.

“The marketplace has changed in the past two years, not only because of COVID, but also because the Philippines has reduced tariffs on imported pork, because of the impact of African swine fever has had on the domestic supply,” says John Herath, USMEF’s communications director.

Because of the reduced tariff, from 30% to 5%, and increased minimum access volume or the quota, Rentoria says the Philippines has increased their importation of pork. U.S. pork export values increased by 26%, with a 78% increase in the Philippines alone from 2020 to 2021.

Rentoria adds, “This is a good opportunity for us to also tap [the importers] and inform them of the qualities or attributes about U.S. pork.”

Seen as an area with tremendous growth potential, the U.S. Meat Products Showcase aimed to further support the goal of increasing red meat exports in the southeast Asian countries, highlighting the quality and diverse product offerings found in U.S. meat.