Unscripted podcast with Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths

$280,000? 18-Year-Old Semi Sells for Record Price, Signaling Pre-DEF Equipment Demand Is Surging

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 17:56:03 GMT

An 18-year-old semi just set a record at auction, offering one of the clearest signals yet of where demand is flowing in today’s machinery market — and where it isn’t.

A 2007 Peterbilt 379, built before diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) systems were required, sold for $280,000 during a late-year consignment auction in North Dakota. The truck was a rare example: one owner, always shedded, and showing just 20,817 miles. Still, the price stunned even seasoned auction watchers.

Greg Peterson — better known as Machinery Pete — says the sale eclipses every previous result he has tracked for the iconic model.

“I’ve seen about 2,800 Pete 379s over the last 25 years,” Peterson says. “The previous high was $262,000, and that was back in July 2022 when the whole market was absolutely on fire. To come along now and just smoke that number, with an 18-year-old truck, that tells you something.”

That “something,” Peterson says, is demand not just for trucks, but for pre-emissions equipment across agriculture and transportation. Auctions, he notes, are brutally honest. They don’t care about model-year labels or marketing cycles. They simply reflect what buyers want — and what they are willing to pay for.

“That Peterbilt is an 18-year-old truck,” Peterson says. “And it brings $280,000. Auctions don’t lie. They tell you exactly what people want — and right now, that’s used, pre-DEF equipment.”

‘07 Peterbilt 379 w/ only 20,817 miles, 1 owner, always shedded, sold $280,000 today on @UlmerAuction sale. I’ve compiled 2800+ auction sale prices on 379’s past 25 Yrs. $280,000 is new record high auction price. Was $262K on 7/28/22 Villa Grove, IL salehttps://t.co/S6yC5PLDvR pic.twitter.com/TxdTN67GIH
— Greg Peterson (@MachineryPete) December 17, 2025

Used Equipment Values Gain Momentum

The Peterbilt sale is not an isolated case. Peterson says used equipment values, broadly speaking, have been strengthening for much of the year — a trend that runs counter to what the machinery market has historically done during periods of soft farm income.

“Used values started to solidify in the third week of February,” Peterson says. “They held, held, held. Then we got into November and December and it was like, ‘Katie, bar the door.’ I’ve never seen this in my 36 years.”

What makes the current cycle unusual, he says, is not just that used values are strong — it’s that they’re strengthening at a time when new equipment sales are clearly contracting.

“In the past, when I’ve seen auction prices take off like this, it’s always been equivalent to optimal conditions for new equipment sales,” Peterson says. “That ain’t the case this time.”

Recent auction data reinforces the point. A 2011 Case IH 6088 combine, pre-DEF and with low hours, sold for $178,000, the highest auction price for that model in nearly 11 years. A 2009 John Deere 8295R tractor with just over 1,000 hours brought $230,000, the strongest result in more than 30 months.

“I’ve never seen used values going up while new sales are going down,” Peterson says. “Never.”

Price of New Forces a Rethink

Peterson says the underlying force behind this shift is impossible to ignore: the cost of new equipment.

“I don’t know how tall the ceiling is, but that’s the price of new,” he says. “We understand why prices went up — labor, materials, everything through the pandemic — but at some point you have to ask, ‘Just because you can raise the price, should you?’”

As the grain downturn stretches on, Peterson says farmers have had time to pause and reassess their operations — and their machinery lineups.

“What it’s done is it’s given farmers time to catch their breath,” he says. “They’re saying, ‘We’ve got a lot of iron on this farm. We’ve got more equipment than my dad had and more than my grandpa had. Do we really need all this going forward?’”

That mindset shift doesn’t necessarily mean farmers will stop buying equipment forever. But Peterson says it has changed buying behavior — especially in the short term — and it’s pushed many operators toward well-kept used machines rather than six- or seven-figure new purchases.

“When the money’s not flowing, people think differently,” he says. “That’s just the reality.”

Dealers, Manufacturers Pull Back on New

At the same time farmers are stepping back, Peterson says the supply side of the market has also changed in ways that amplify used-equipment demand.

Manufacturers have dramatically reduced production, closing plants and laying off workers at levels Peterson says he has never seen before. While painful, those moves have eliminated excess new inventory sitting on dealer lots — and the interest expense that comes with it.

“What manufacturers have achieved is basically no backlog of new equipment,” Peterson says.

He says dealer consolidation over the past decade has played a major role. Larger dealer groups now carry more leverage with manufacturers, and when the slowdown hit, dealers acted quickly.

“They were paying 8% interest on all this stuff sitting on their lots,” Peterson says. “Their No. 1 mission wasn’t selling new equipment. Their No. 1 mission was, ‘We are going to move this one-, two-, three-year-old stuff.’”

Manufacturers responded with incentives to help dealers clear late-model used inventory — a level of cooperation Peterson says he has not seen in more than three decades of tracking the market.

“I’ve never seen that level of coordination before,” he says. “And the focus clearly shifted away from new.”

Pre-DEF Machines Command a Premium

Layered on top of price and supply issues is deep frustration with emissions systems. Peterson says pre-DEF equipment — whether trucks, tractors or combines — now stands out immediately to buyers.

“The good pre-emission stuff jumps forward like a neon sign,” he says.

That demand is no longer subtle. Practices that once happened quietly, such as emissions deletions, are now openly acknowledged — and reflected in sale prices.

“It used to be hush-hush,” Peterson says. “It’s not anymore. People say it right on the auction bill because it sells for more money. It just flat does.”

He says recent political discussion around environmental regulations has only amplified that sentiment, particularly among farmers who feel reliability and repair costs have been compromised.

“When he talked about it, I honestly thought it was an AI clip at first,” Peterson says. “He sounded like every farmer I’ve talked to for the last 15 years.”

New Equipment Demand Remains Weak

While used values climb, new equipment sales continue to struggle. November data show four-wheel-drive tractor sales down 19%, with self-propelled combine sales down 35% for the month and nearly 40% year-to-date. Livestock producers remain a bright spot, but on the grain side, Peterson says demand is clearly subdued.

Looking ahead, he says today’s production cuts could have major consequences when farm income eventually improves.

“When corn and beans finally move higher and stay there, we’re going to see exactly what we saw in 2021,” Peterson says. “Farmers are going to want to update, and dealers are going to say, ‘I can only sell you eight — that’s all we get.’”

Until then, he says the auction market continues to speak clearly.

Will Trump Roll Back DEF?

During a roundtable at the White House last week when the Trump administration rolled out $12 billion in farmer aid , President Trump also revealed other actions the Trump administration is working on to reduce regulations. Trump told farmers Monday his administration plans to scale back environmental requirements on tractors and other farm equipment, framing the move as a way to bring down machinery costs that have climbed in recent years.

“The other thing I’d like to add … we’re going to also give the tractor companies, John Deere and all of the companies that make the equipment, we’re going to take off a lot of the environmental restrictions that they have on machinery,” Trump said. “It’s ridiculous.”

While Trump didn’t provide specifics on how the details of that plan will come together, Trump said EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin would be involved in carrying out the effort. There’s speculation on if that will be removing diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) requirements on tractors or also addressing the long-standing right-to-repair issue.

Farm Journal reached out to EPA, and the agency confirmed it was DEF to which the president was referring.

“EPA has heard loud and clear from truckers and farmers across the United States that the Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) system was unacceptable and cost millions of dollars in lost productivity,” Brigit Hirsch, EPA press secretary, told Farm Journal. “This summer, Administrator Zeldin issued clear guidance urging engine and equipment manufacturers to revise DEF system software in existing vehicles and equipment to prevent sudden shutdowns. It is essential manufacturers give operators more time to repair faults without impacting their livelihoods or safety. EPA will continue to evaluate ways to expand the work the agency has already done on DEF and looks forward to working across the administration to do so.”

Trump argued added systems meant to meet environmental rules have driven up price tags and made equipment harder to operate and repair.

“You buy it, it’s got so much equipment on it for the environmental, it doesn’t do anything except it makes the equipment much more expensive and much more complicated to work,” he said, adding, “it’s not as good as the old days.”

Trump said the administration’s goal is to remove what he called “nonsense” and require manufacturers to pass savings along to farmers.

Read more about what President Trump may do with DEF in the coming months.

'The System Is Failing Us:' Why Real Change is Needed in U.S. Agriculture

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 13:57:30 GMT

Joe Maxwell doesn’t pull punches — especially on the topic of the future of American agriculture.

“The system is failing us,” says Maxwell, co-founder of Farm Action , during a recent episode of “Unscripted.” “It’s failing the people. It’s failing family farmers and ranchers. And it’s failing consumers. We can’t keep pretending everything’s fine.”

The Missouri farmer and former lieutenant governor shares an uncomfortable truth: The economic model that has shaped U.S. agriculture no longer works for those producing America’s food.

Commodity prices remain under pressure, input costs stay stubbornly high and government payments — while keeping some farms afloat — often mask deeper structural problems.

“We’re on this hamster wheel,” Maxwell says. “Government sends out a bailout, input companies raise prices and the money flows right back up to them. We think we’re being helped, but really, we’re just passing the money through.”

From Missouri Roots to National Reform

Maxwell grew up on a family farm in Missouri and lived through the 1980s farm crisis. That experience shapes his conviction that policy, not luck, determines who survives in agriculture.

That belief lead him and Ohio farmer Angela Huffman to co-found Farm Action, a nonprofit working to “connect the dots” between policy decisions, corporate consolidation and on-farm economics.

“We see a need for a farm organization that looks up and down the entire food chain,” Maxwell explains. “Everyone’s focused on one part of the system — fertilizer here, seed prices there, meatpacking somewhere else — but no one connects them. Farm Action connects those dots and pushes for policy that works for independent producers again.”

“We Don’t Feed the World Anymore”

Maxwell challenges one of agriculture’s most familiar slogans.

“Let’s be honest — we don’t feed the world anymore,” he says. “We import 60% of our fruit, over a third of our vegetables and record amounts of beef. We have a $47 billion agricultural trade deficit. The world is starting to feed us.”

He argues that U.S. farm policy has become overly dependent on exports of feed and fuel crops, while overlooking food crops and livestock production that directly feed Americans. Maxwell calls for farm programs that reward food production rather than commodity production.

“Every year we lose up to 1.8 million acres of pasture to row crops,” he notes. “That’s a failure of policy. We make it easier and more profitable to grow corn for fuel than to raise beef or vegetables for food. That’s not national security — that’s national vulnerability.”

“Let’s quit lying to ourselves. We don’t feed the world anymore — the world is beginning to feed us.”— Joe Maxwell, Farm Action

The Growing Grip of Consolidation

Maxwell points to consolidation as the most dangerous — and least understood — threat facing independent producers. From fertilizer and seed to meatpacking and grocery shelves, he says control has concentrated into the hands of just a few corporations.

“The power dynamic in agriculture has flipped,” Maxwell explains. “Farmers used to have leverage. Now, a handful of companies control nearly every input we need to farm — and they set the prices we pay. Then they control the markets we sell into, and they set those prices, too. That’s not a free market — that’s corporate feudalism.”

He points to Farm Action’s Concentration Tracker, a public data hub that compiles market share information across the food system. It shows that:

Four companies control over 80% of beef processing.
Two companies dominate more than 75% of corn seed genetics.
Three firms hold the majority of fertilizer production capacity.
The top five grocery chains now capture nearly 65% of all food retail sales.

“When just a few players hold that kind of power, they don’t compete — they coordinate,” Maxwell says. “They can raise input costs and suppress farmgate prices, and farmers have no real alternative. That’s why our concentration tracker matters — it exposes what’s really happening behind the curtain.”

The problem, he says, isn’t just economic — it’s political.

“These corporations have so much money and influence they shape farm policy to fit their own balance sheets,” Maxwell adds. “When we go to Washington asking for help, they’re already there, writing the rules. Until we restore fair competition and transparency, every bailout, every policy tweak is just feeding the beast.”

Farm Action’s data shows concentration doesn’t just hurt farmers — it hurts consumers, too. From fertilizer to feed to food, fewer companies mean higher costs for everyone.

“You see it every time you go to the grocery store,” Maxwell says. “Beef prices are high, but cattlemen aren’t seeing that profit. Fertilizer prices spike, but farmers don’t control the market. Consumers pay more, farmers earn less, and the middle consolidates the wealth. That’s not sustainable for anybody.”

It’s a concept gaining national traction. Just this week, the Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on the soaring costs of inputs.

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) also introduced legislation to address the rising costs of inputs, called the Fertilizer Research Act . But the hearing brought together the larger issue of rising costs across the board for farmers.

“This hearing is focused on competition issues. However, there is something that the Trump administration can do right now to help ease the burden for farmers: lowering the countervailing duties on phosphate from Morocco. In 2024, the Biden administration increased duties on Moroccan phosphate to 18%,” said Grassley in his opening statement. “The Biden phosphate duties have only hurt farmers by boxing out access to this important market on an essential input with no substitute. I’m calling on the Trump administration to help American farmers and get rid of the Biden phosphate duties.”

The Beef Debate: “We’re Blindsided”

For ranchers, the issue of consolidation has long been a point of contention. But recent comments by President Trump sparked a renewed push for change and a probe into who and what really controls the prices consumers are paying.

When the White House signaled it will allow more beef imports from Argentina , Maxwell says many ranchers feel blindsided.

“Our cattle herd is at a 70-year low,” he says. “Ranchers finally see light at the end of the tunnel — and then Washington steps in to import more beef. That’s not just a policy mistake, it’s a psychological one.”

He argues that the frustration isn’t only about imports; it’s about the perception that the administration doesn’t understand the complexity of the cattle market.

“Cattle producers don’t set the price they’re paid — packers do,” Maxwell explains. “So when the president talks about lowering prices for consumers without addressing packer control, he’s aiming at the wrong target.”

“We’re finally seeing the light of day. Then government puts its hand back on our backs.”— Joe Maxwell on the U.S. cattle market

“It’s Time for DOJ to Step In”: Why the Beef Industry Needs an Investigation

He says instead of the Trump administration focusing on cattle prices, Farm Action thinks what happened in the egg industry during past price spikes is exactly what needs to happen now in beef: a full federal investigation.

“Two companies control 90% of hatcheries in the U.S. egg industry,” Maxwell explains. “When egg prices exploded, Farm Action presented evidence to the Department of Justice showing that those companies were profiting at historic levels while blaming avian flu. And you know what happened? DOJ opened an investigation. That’s what accountability looks like.”

Now, he says, the same pattern is playing out in beef.

“We’ve already seen price-fixing cases in the cattle sector,” he says. “Two of the major packers admitted it back in 2019. We shouldn’t have to spend years in court to prove what every rancher already knows — that a handful of companies are manipulating the market.”

The so-called “Big Four” — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef (controlled by Brazil-based Marfrig) — control roughly 85% of U.S. beef processing capacity. That concentration, Maxwell argues, allows them to influence both the price paid to producers and the price charged to consumers.

“It’s an abusive system,” Maxwell says. “They squeeze ranchers on one end and shoppers on the other, and everyone in between gets caught in the middle. The packers are the only ones guaranteed to make money, no matter what happens to the market.”

He calls for the Department of Justice to launch a new, comprehensive investigation into price manipulation and anti-competitive behavior within the beef industry — similar to what Farm Action pushed for with eggs.

“We need DOJ to do in beef what it finally did in eggs,” he says. “Follow the money, follow the profits, and hold these corporations accountable. Because right now, the people who produce our beef — the ranchers who’ve weathered drought, inflation, and decades of consolidation — are getting crushed while multinational packers report record margins.”

Maxwell says the Biden administration has taken small steps, but much more needs to be done.

“It’s not enough to tinker at the edges,” he warns. “We need enforcement — real enforcement — of the Packers and Stockyards Act, the Sherman Act, the Clayton Act. The laws are already on the books. What’s missing is the will to use them.”

Country-of-Origin Labeling: A “No-Brainer”

Maxwell says Farm Action is pushing hard for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (M-COOL) as part of the upcoming USMCA review in 2026.

“Consumers deserve to know where their beef comes from,” he insists. “The president could fix this tomorrow by negotiating M-COOL into the trade deal. That one move would give American ranchers a fair shot.”

He dismisses claims that M-COOL violates WTO rules.

“WTO is dead in the water,” Maxwell argues. “There’s no functioning tribunal to even hear a case. The only people fighting this are the packers — JBS, Tyson, Cargill, Marfrig — because they profit when foreign beef gets a U.S. label.”

Structural Change, Not Another Bailout
When asked whether Farm Action supports another round of USDA bailouts for struggling producers, Maxwell doesn’t hesitate.

“We recognize farmers are in crisis,” he says. “We don’t want to see our neighbors driven off the farm. But we can’t just keep sending out checks without fixing the system. One day those bailouts won’t come, and then it’ll look just like the 1980s. We have to demand structural change.”

Those changes, he says, should include:

Capping farm subsidies to slow consolidation.
Rebalancing insurance and incentive programs toward food production.
Rebuilding local and regional processing capacity to compete with the “Big Four” packers who control 80–85% of the cattle market.
Stronger enforcement of antitrust laws like the Packers and Stockyards Act and the Sherman Act.

Rebuilding from the Ground Up

Despite his criticism, Maxwell frames his message as one of hope — if farmers and ranchers take the lead.

“We can’t sit back and wait for Washington to fix this,” he says. “We have to step up, be part of the conversation, and demand policies that keep family farms in business.”

He supports Rep. Thomas Massie’s Prime Act, which would expand small-scale meat processing and let states regulate local slaughterhouses directly.

“We’ve got the infrastructure,” Maxwell adds. “We just need to give it life again. Let’s rebuild local processing so farmers can sell directly to consumers and keep value in their communities.”

Why It Matters Now

Fresh data from the Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows that 76% of agricultural economists expect conditions to persist or worsen over the next year. Many see echoes of the 1980s — though they warn today’s crisis is more complex.

“It’s not the 1980s all over again,” says Unscripted host Tyne Morgan. “But the pain is real. Economists say the situation could worsen in 2026 if structural issues aren’t addressed. That’s what makes conversations like this so important.”

A Call to Action

As the conversation wraps up, Maxwell’s tone shifts from urgency to determination. His message to rural America is both a warning and an invitation.

“We have to lead,” he says, pausing before adding, “because no one else is going to do it for us.”

He says the future of U.S. agriculture depends on whether farmers choose to engage in these hard conversations — the ones about fairness, policy, and the future of independent family farms.

“Look, we can’t afford to sit on the sidelines and hope someone in Washington suddenly understands our way of life,” Maxwell says. “Every farmer, every rancher, every person who believes in feeding people instead of feeding systems has a role to play. It starts at the local level — showing up, speaking up, refusing to accept that the current model is the only way forward.”He continues:

“This isn’t about right or left, or about politics at all. It’s about survival — for the people who feed this country. We can’t keep patching the same broken system and expecting it to serve us. If we want a food system that’s fair, resilient, and rooted in our rural communities, we’ve got to build it ourselves, together. That’s the hard truth — and the hopeful one.”

Maxwell’s words linger long after the conversation ends — a challenge, but also a call for courage. Change, he insists, isn’t something that happens to farmers. It’s something that must happen through them.

Listen to the Full Conversation

Listen to the full interview: “Unscripted” with Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths featuring Joe Maxwell, a vailable on Farm Journal’s YouTube channel and anywhere you stream podcasts.

Joe Vaclavik Goes Unscripted on How to Navigate Another Trade War

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 21:18:09 GMT

If you’re trying to make sense of the topsy-turvy commodities market , you’re not alone. Looming trade wars with Canada, Mexico and China — the top three U.S. export markets — as well as on-again/off-again tariffs are causing a lot of concern.

“I don’t like these types of markets because they’re impossible to navigate,” says commodities markets analyst Joe Vaclavik on the latest episode of Farm Journal’s Unscripted podcast. “The market is as good as the next headline. It’s fear and greed and uncertainty.”

Founder and president of Standard Grain and host of the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast, Vaclavik adds: “It was like this in 2018 when the trade war happened. It may be like this for a while. It’s not fun.”

That said, he remains optimistic for the long-term about resolving tensions with Canada and Mexico.

“The numbers will tell you the U.S. has an advantage in a trade war,” he explains. “They need us to buy stuff from them. What they export to the U.S. is a big chunk of their respective GDPs, whereas what we export to them is not really a significant portion of our GDP. In the short term, anything is possible, but I feel like this won’t last long.”

With 40% of U.S. corn exports going to Mexico, a quick resolution would come as a relief to corn growers.

“I think Mexico is going to be our best corn customer for a long time,” Vaclavik says. “It just makes too much sense.”

The Possibility of Relief Payments

Vaclavik is optimistic about direct relief payments for producers from the government, though these payments can be a mixed blessing.

“The payments are going to result in possible input inflation and messed-up land markets, and keep the bad operators in business,” he says. “But they’re going to help make you feel a little bit better.”

At Commodity Classic in early March, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins assured the industry the government is already preparing for the possibility of trade wars impacting U.S. agriculture, as they did in 2018 and 2019. While the payments help, they can mask the hard truth about the farm economy right now.

As far as what producers should do with all the news about tariffs and trade wars, Vaclavik advises: “Wait a couple of weeks and see how this pans out. It’s going to be different from 2018. I don’t think it’s going to last as long. And I don’t think it’s going to be as deep.”

You can also watch the latest episode of Unscripted on Farm Journal TV .

How New Trade Deals with China and Other Markets Can Energize U.S. Ag

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 21:18:27 GMT

Since the Trump administration took office, we’ve all heard a lot of news about contentious negotiations with our largest export markets — Canada, Mexico and China. While the first two have already promised concessions to avoid high tariffs on U.S. goods, communication with Beijing has been more limited and contentious. However, President Donald Trump mentioned last week that he believes a deal with China is possible.

While many members of the ag industry were surprised, veteran trade negotiator Gregg Doud believes that a deal could be made.

“They are very transactional and we are, too, so I think there’s a deal to be had there,” Doud tells Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths on the latest episode of Farm Journal’s Unscripted podcast . Doud is currently president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, but between 2018 and 2021 he was the chief agricultural negotiator in the Office of the United States Trade Representative. He led the grueling negotiations with China that resulted in the Phase One agreement in late 2019.

“That was brutal,” he says, noting that the language barrier complicates any negotiation with China. He tells the podcast hosts that reaching agreement required 33 sessions and hundreds of hours. “We got a lot of things changed,” he says of the Phase One deal. “Great progress there.”

Due to his experience with that agreement, he’s optimistic about future negotiations with Beijing. “At some point I think President Xi in China and President Trump will sit down again,” he says. “It a good thing to have the two largest economies on earth talking to each other.”

That said, he notes that China’s demand for agricultural imports from the U.S. has changed since the 2019 negotiations. Back then, he says, “Their demand for protein — beef, pork, poultry, dairy — was nearly insatiable.” Now, he says, they are less interested in importing meat. “They’d rather import the soybeans and corn and make the meal and feed it themselves and add that value there. But I still think protein is where it’s at, not just in China but around the world. That’s our advantage.”

Opening new international markets is the goal of the new administration. Doud says that agreements with the European Union, Brazil, India and some other possible partners will be challenging. “We’ve been doing this trade stuff for a long time,” he says. “All the easy stuff was done a long time ago.”

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.

Ag Economist Dan Basse Weighs in on Tariffs, Trade Wars and the Livestock Boom

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 16:39:03 GMT

As the American ag industry settles into a new year and a new political administration, every day brings surprising twists and turns. President Donald Trump’s threats of 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, our largest trade partners, will be delayed for a month as those countries act on the concessions they’ve made regarding border control, fentanyl restriction and other demands. Meanwhile, tariffs are already being placed on certain goods from China, which has responded with retaliatory tariffs of its own, suggesting that trade wars not only could loom in the near future but have already begun.

“Once tariffs are put in place, they’re very hard to come off,” says ag economist Dan Basse on the latest episode of Unscripted . President of AgResource Company, a domestic and international agricultural research firm based in Chicago, Basse has been working in the ag commodities business for 45 years. He’s been through many of the industry’s ups and downs. “I would imagine we’re going to see more countries ensnarled in this whole thing,” he says. “My big concern with tariffs is not how they’re used to help the American economy but how long lasting they may be for the American farmer.”

The Chinese tariffs might impact American exports of ag equipment but so far haven’t included exports of our key commodities. “For China to get a reduction or even a pause on tariffs, they have to go back and adhere to the 2020 Phase I trade agreement,” Basse explains. According to that agreement, China still needs to spend roughly $85 billion on American goods. “But I don’t think the Chinese are going to be buying anything from the United States. They spent the past four years diversifying their suppliers and, at least at the moment, they’re in good shape on that.”

The discussion on the podcast ranges across a number of topics, including biofuels and the currently booming cattle market. Basse predicts that the boom in cattle prices will continue, good news for American ranchers. “I don’t think this cycle is over for another two-and-a-half or three years,” he says. “This is going to keep going on. I don’t think cattle have hit their all-time highs yet.” While he notes that the market could see some short-term price volatility, he believes “cash cattle will make higher highs as we look toward the fourth quarter of this year than we’re sitting right now.”

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.

Which Presidential Candidate Would Have the Biggest Impact on Ag?

Fri, 01 Nov 2024 22:40:06 GMT

With early voting well underway in the presidential election, agriculture producers must decide which candidate will better serve their needs and what they want the next president to do. On the latest episode of Farm Journal’s Unscripted podcast , long-time Washington insider Jim Wiesemeyer shares what he’s hearing about who that next president could be. He tells hosts Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths that early voting among Republicans could make a big impact.

With polls showing razor-thin margins between the candidates, it’s still too close to call, particularly in the swing states, Wiesemeyer says. At a recent event in Colorado Springs, CO, he heard David Wasserman from the Cook Political Report give Donald Trump a 60 percent chance of winning. “Republicans historically vote far more than Democrats on election day,” he says. “This year, more Republicans have voted early. They could gain some key votes in key states simply by voting earlier.”

On the podcast, Clinton offers, “It feels like there’s so much pressure at the polls to get it right. Everybody’s kind of on edge, which I’m okay with. I want it to be right.” When the counting is done, however, which candidate will be better for agriculture? Tyne reveals that surveys in this month’s Ag Economist’s Monthly Monitor and a Farm Journal survey of more than 4,000 ag producers tell different stories.

Key issues for the industry include the 45Z program for biofuels, farm policy, tariffs, crop insurance and inflation. Jim says, “When I talk to top producers, one thing is clear on differentiating the candidates — tax policy. Farmers like that 20 percent pass-through. They like less estate taxes, less capital gains taxes. When you talk to farm country, production agriculture, those are the things I’m told.”

They agree that the delay in clarification on the 45Z biofuels tax credit is, as Tyne says, “a complete disaster.” Is it going to happen next year? Soybean processing plants are slowing purchases because they’re not sure about receiving the credit. “As for why it’s taking so long, it’s up to the treasury department and the IRS, because it’s tax incentives,” Jim explains. “They just don’t know agriculture. Companies are starting to pull back their investment plans because they don’t know the rules. We have to know if corn-based ethanol is going to comply.”

It’s a spirited, illuminating discussion on a range of issues that farmers, ranchers and other ag professionals need to consider seriously as they cast their votes.

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.

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D.C. Insider Jim Wiesemeyer Sheds Light On the Wild Week in American Politics

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 16:33:07 GMT

At this week’s Republican National Convention, the GOP confirmed their ticket for the 2024 presidential race while calling for unity in America following the assignation attempt on candidate Donald Trump. Meanwhile, there’s growing pressure among Democrats for President Joe Biden to step away from the race.

Long-time political analyst Jim Wiesemeyer joined Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths on Farm Journal’s new Unscripted podcast this week to sort through all the breaking news.

The assassination attempt on Sunday in rural Pennsylvania reminded Wiesemeyer of the failed attempt on the life of President Ronald Reagan in 1981. “It changed Reagan and it appears to have changed Trump,” Wiesemeyer tells the hosts. He felt a new tone among Republicans at last week’s convention. “They wanted to present a sense of spreading the tent,” he says. “I think a lot of people toned down the negatives.”

In discussing Donald Trump’s 92-minute acceptance speech, Wiesemeyer notes on the podcast, “The speech was especially effective at the beginning and less so as it went on, as it became undifferentiated from a normal Trump speech.”

Wiesemeyer compared the Democrats’ situation with Joe Biden to the 1968 presidential election, when incumbent Lyndon Johnson stepped down rather than run for a second term in office. The D.C. insider believes there’s enough time still left to replace Biden but adds, “They can’t doddle. The polls are still close.” If Biden does end his campaign, Wiesemeyer says, “They’ll try to pick a candidate that galvanizes all the different factions, and that’s hard to do.”

In viewing the race as it currently stands, Wiesemeyer sees what he calls “an enthusiasm gap” but tells the podcast hosts that much can change in the next few weeks. He believes that voters, in the end, must look at the policies of the two parties. “Sure there will be some emotion, but look at the policies,” he says. “Let the best party win.”

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.

Chip Flory Talks Farm Bill Politics, Wet Planting and Award-Winning Wings

Tue, 28 May 2024 19:36:26 GMT

Farmers who are feeling bewildered by the glacial progress of the next farm bill should know they’re not alone. “There are a lot of people who are confused about the process, including me,” AgriTalk host Chip Flory says on the latest episode of Unscripted , a new podcast produced by Farm Journal Studios. “I’ve never seen anything like this.” Part of the problem is the great political divide in Congress, he says, adding, “I remember when it was a very bipartisan effort.”

Unscripted co-hosts Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths admit to sharing Flory’s confusion and frustration, Morgan noting that the discussions on Capitol Hill are “getting ugly. I don’t know what to believe anymore. We’re far from an agreement.”

Moving on to other topics, Flory said he’s much more sure about the best music concert he’s ever attended. Rather than a country artist, as many of his long-time listeners would expect, he chooses Phil Collins. “I’m not a big fan of country music,” he says. “But if it’s old-school country, I’m all in.”

Each week on Unscripted , Morgan and Griffiths bring in fellow Farm Journal hosts and editors to share behind-the-scenes insights on the stories they’ve covered, giving their audience a chance to meet the personalities behind the personalities. The conversations are often surprising, sometimes spicy and always spontaneous.

In the latest episode, after exploring the farm bill, they discuss the stormy spring weather that has made planting difficult in many parts of the country. Despite the weak start to the growing season, the hosts and guest remain optimistic, as Morgan sums up their take with, “Don’t bet against the American farmer.”

A strong evening storm last week interrupted Flory’s efforts to grill pork chops, but chicken wings are his true specialty. And he proved it a couple of weeks ago at Wingfest, an annual competition held in Cascade, Iowa. As part of his son’s cooking team, named Eastern Iowa Taxidermy, he helped win the judge’s choice and the people’s choice awards for best wings. On the podcast, he reveals the secrets of his wing mastery.

From the passing of an ag media icon to art thefts at Taco Bell restaurants to anticipation of strong crop yields despite a stormy spring, this week’s roundup of stories on Unscripted kicks off the holiday weekend in high style.

Unscripted: Will New Policies Reshape the Ag Industry’s Future?

As new presidential and congressional administrations prepare to grab the governmental reins, ag professionals wonder what the new leadership will mean for the industry. Will we finally get a new farm bill? Who will be the next secretary of agriculture? Will we get clarification on nagging questions about biofuels? Will producers continue to face rising input costs and low commodity prices?

Washington D.C. ag economist John Newton sees opportunities for improving the industry’s financial outlook with new leadership in place. On the latest episode of the Unscripted podcast , Newton asks, “What needs to happen to turn this around?” and answers his question with “it all starts with demand.” Noting that corn exports have been strong, he says, “All eyes are going to be on this next administration for how we proceed with agricultural exports to our top markets.”

Increasing exports can give the ag economy a much-needed boost, and he’s optimistic about that possibility. “I’m focused heavily on the opportunities we have ahead of us in U.S. agriculture,” he says. “We’re the best in the world at what we do, we have the highest quality products, we just need an opportunity to deliver those products to the global market.”

He also has a positive outlook on the long-awaited farm bill, which currently remains in the hands of the lame-duck Senate ag committee.

“I’m optimistic we can get it done, but the clock is ticking,” he says. “There’s an opportunity to do something bipartisan for ag, for rural America.” From updated crop insurance to risk management tools to funding for rural childcare and health care to ag trade promotion programs, the bill could address many persistent issues that producers face. “The list,” says Newton, “is long.”

While he recognizes the major obstacles preventing a turnaround for the ag economy, he’s also optimistic about the candidates for the next secretary of agriculture. “There are a number of highly qualified people on the list,” he says. “It’s important to have somebody in that seat who works well with agriculture and is a good ambassador for us in the Oval Office.”

Watch the full episode of Unscripted.