Tornado

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:49 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Is ‘Tornado Alley’ Expanding East?

Thu, 24 Mar 2022 20:44:58 GMT

Tornados are nature’s most violent storms. Typically spawned from powerful thunderstorms, these destructive forces of nature can cause fatalities, detrimental damage, and wipe out neighborhoods in a mere matter of seconds.

Since the term was first coined in 1952, “Tornado Alley” has traditionally been located throughout portions of the central U.S., typically from north-central Texas to South Dakota. Tornados are most frequent in this region and have an increased chance of being more destructive.

However, science shows this tornado prone area may be expanding east.

According to a 2018 study , tornado frequency has decreased over the past four decades across Tornado Alley, while increasing just to the east across the Lower Great Lakes and into the Deep South.

Tornado Frequency

(Farm Journal)

The study also reports negative tendencies of tornado occurrence have been noted in portions of the central and southern Great Plains, while robust positive trends have been documented in portions of the Midwest and Southeast U.S.

Though trends point to fewer tornado occurrences in the Great Plains, AgDay meteorologist Matt Yarosewick warns that the risk for tornadic weather isn’t necessarily declining.

“The United States is the most active spot on the globe for tornadoes,” Yarosewick says. “The climate, the geography and all those ingredients are always in play. There will always be tons of talk about the number of tornadoes or the intensity. It is all due to the warming climate and the overall larger moisture content in the atmosphere. Most early season severe weather outbreaks are occurring east of “tornado alley.” That is because the east is more active in the springtime with storm fronts whereas “tornado alley” is infamous for the dry line setups on hot summer says. Different times of the year will bring many different setups.”

Along with tornadic weather conditions expanding east, frequency is also increasing.

“The conditions needed for tornadoes are occurring more frequently due to the warming of the planet and the moisture content in the air,” Yarosewick says. “These stronger storm systems feed off of all of those types of conditions and will then, in turn, produce stronger storms and potentially more tornadoes due to the frequency of the events.”

As severe weather begins to ramp up across the U.S., it’s important to keep tornado safety at the top of mind. Planning ahead will lower the chance of injury or death in the event severe weather strikes.

For recent tornado coverage, read:

Texas Tornado Destroys Ag Shop, But Doesn’t Stop FFA Members From Helping Community

Kentucky Farmers Endure Epic Ruin And Worst Storm Damage In State History As Agriculture Rushes To Rebuild

Mon, 24 Jan 2022 19:32:56 GMT

On Dec. 10, 2021, a tornado charged across the Midsouth demolishing towns and farms in its path.

“You could not have charted a path with more destruction throughout rural Kentucky than what happened in mid-December,” says Ryan Quarles, Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture.

The EF4 tornado was the deadliest tornado in the state’s history, resulting in 58 fatalities.

“When I got there, there were still people who were injured and walking around. It was just terrible,” says Keith Lowry, a farmer just 10 miles south of Mayfield, Ken. “There’s nothing left in downtown Mayfield for 10 to 12 city blocks. There won’t be anything left on in downtown Mayfield.”

(Farm Journal)

200 Miles of Devastation

Along its 200-mile path, the tornado also destroyed a research farm vital to the state’s ag industry.

“Our agriculture industry got hit more than any other industry in our state. Literally we have a path of destruction from the Bootheel of Missouri to just south of Louisville, Kentucky,” Quarles says. “We have deceased livestock just south of Louisville. If you work your way back toward western Kentucky, we have collapsed grain centers, grain silos and the poultry industry got pummeled with close to 30 poultry barns completely collapsed or damaged beyond repair.”

(Farm Journal)

Mayfield, Ken., is considered ground zero for the devastation caused by the December tornado. As Lowry detailed, block after block of the town was crushed by the storm.

“I made a call to the mayor and to the judge executive. They said just come on up, we’ve got big problems,” he says.

That call happened at 2:30 a.m., and a few hours later Lowry, who also owns heavy machinery and operates a trucking company, headed for Mayfield.

“When I got there, they had three or four medical emergencies they could not get to. So we took our heavy equipment and cleaned up some streets. I’ve never seen anything like it — it’s just like a bomb went off.”

While there’s been a steady stream of cleanup efforts blanketing the rural town, the work has only started.

“We’ve been at it for six weeks, and you can hardly tell we’ve done anything. It’s just that much devastation,” Lowry says.

Losses Continue to Mount

As the cleanup continues, the price tag of the devastation is still unknown.

“We don’t know how expensive this tornado storm system will be toward Kentucky agriculture. But what we do know is it will be the most expensive storm damage for ag that our state has ever seen,” he adds. “There’s no question about it.”

(Farm Journal)

As residents work to rebuild, the costs of materials have climbed, and some materials are now in short supply.

“Another big issue in our state right now is the lack of fencing,” Quarles says. “There are literally areas where you don’t know where the property lines are anymore. Plus, you have debris, nails or other items that can be harmful to livestock. So we’re still dealing with sorting livestock properly, beef cattle, and also animal welfare issues.”

(Farm Journal)

Grain bins were also crushed, raising questions about where the 2022 harvest will be stored.

“One of our local granaries had close to 6 million bushels of grain destroyed, and I don’t think it’s going to be salvageable for the chicken industry, which is very big for Graves County, and as of today, were still hauling it out,” says Lowry.

That feed mill is a main artery for poultry feed, as it supplies close to 200 farms.

“The local granary — we’re hoping and praying somebody will come in there and rebuild because we need that grain. The chicken industry needs the grain,” Lowry adds.

Agriculture Rallies to Help

While some business might never rebuild, what’s happened in the days and weeks after the tornado is something Quarles says is nothing short of remarkable.

“What’s interesting is that agriculture is taking care of agriculture. A Pilgrim’s Pride hatchery got hit — 8 million chicks gone, females out, but Tyson’s helping supply the feed right now. So we’re trying to help out each other,” Quarles says.

“I have to brag on my fellow farmers. They were called into duty, and we showed up,” Lowry says. “If you know the farming community well enough, we don’t have to be asked, we just get there, we get the job done. We will get the job done eventually, but it seems like it’s a never-ending process.”

While the support has been local, relief has also been pouring in from miles away.

“I’m just humbled to see the random acts of kindness from Americans I have never met,” Quarles says. “We had donations of feed troughs, we’ve had 1,800 pairs of gloves. We have feed and hay coming in from all corners of the United States. And, of course, there’s the monetary donations, as well.”

Quarles says the Kentucky Department of Agriculture and the Kentucky Farm Bureau set up a GoFundMe page called the Kentucky Agriculture Relief Fund. Last week, the relief fund eclipsed over $1 million to help Kentucky rebuild.

“I don’t know if we’ll ever see it back like it was, we probably won’t, but it’s time for us to rebuild. We will rebuild and we will come back stronger,” Lowry says.

How to Help

The Kentucky Department of Agriculture and the Kentucky Farm Bureau Federation are joining forces to create Kentucky Agriculture Relief Fund. The groups have created a GoFundMe page to help provide resources for agricultural-related recovery efforts for farmers affected by the widespread and devastating storms on Dec. 10-11, 2021.

(Farm Journal)