U.S. Agriculture Tariffs

Trump Plans to Tackle Beef Prices with More Imports

Mon, 11 May 2026 18:06:39 GMT

Update: Late Monday night, the Wall Street Journal reported the president delayed his actions.

Tuesday morning, in response to the delayed signing of the executive orders, a White House official says, “The President is committed to lowering beef and other grocery costs for everyday Americans, and the Administration is accordingly fine-tuning potential executive actions to alleviate temporary shortages in the domestic beef market.”

In response to the potential expansion of imports, R-CALF USA issued a statement sharing the organizations concerns with the potential 200-day suspension of certain tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) for beef.

On Monday, a White House official confirmed the President Trump would sign two executive orders to address short-term supply issues in the U.S. beef market by expanding imports and supporting the renewal of America’s domestic cattle herd, which is currently at a multidecade low.

According to a Wall Street Journal article , “The Trump administration is opening the way to import more steaks and ground beef from overseas, part of a broader effort to address record-high beef prices.”

The WSJ article explains the administration is planning to temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports as soon as Monday, according to people familiar with the matter. “The move would suspend the annual tariff-rate quota — which applies a higher tariff rate after a certain level of beef imports are reached — on all beef-exporting nations, enabling more of the product to enter the U.S. at lower tariff rates.”

Beef prices have seen sizable year over year increases for some time. According to Reuters , although prices for eggs, milk and other grocery staples have fallen since Trump took office in January 2025, beef prices have continued to climb.

Last October, Trump ordered a quadrupling of beef imports from Argentina , and a month later removed his 40% punitive tariff on Brazilian beef and coffee.

Reuters says the moves did little to reverse beef ‌prices, ⁠which are up 12.1% year-over-year in April, according to the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index. Beef is more than 16% more expensive than when Trump returned to office in January 2025.

(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED)

What Does Monday’s Announcement Mean

“There is considerable uncertainty about the details,” says Derrell Peel, State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. “It’s not clear whether this only applies to over-quota tariffs or to the 10% retaliatory tariffs that everyone faces. In any event, I don’t believe this will have large impacts to reduce beef prices in the U.S.”

Peel predicts it may only impact Brazil and perhaps Paraguay. Otherwise it may impact Australia and others as well.

“The market is basically determining beef imports now, albeit with some tariffs,” he explains. “Reducing tariffs might have a minor impact on the quantity of imports but I think it is minimal. If it does have any impacts it will marginally reduce lean processing beef prices and thus ground beef. No impact on steaks.”

David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and Extension specialist for livestock and food product marketing, explains the U.S. has TRQs on beef from a bunch of countries.

“The way it works is that the country can export to us at a low tariff until the quota is filled and then the tariff jumps up to a higher level for the rest of the year,” he explains. “For example, imports from Brazil come in at a very low tariff until the quota is triggered and then the tariff jumps to 26.4%.”

Anderson explains by suspending the TRQ the administration has announced, effectively, a lower tariff on imported beef.

“The majority of what we import is lean trimmings for ground beef so that might suggest any impact might be more on the cull cow side of things. I don’t expect much, if any, price impact from this,” Anderson predicts. “These countries also export beef to China and other places so how much is really available to send here? Existing contracts with other buyers in other countries may impact how much is available right away to come here.”

He adds China has recently announced TRQs on beef and the ones for Australia and Brazil are likely to quite restrictive later in the year.

“That indicates that we might get more imports from those countries later in 2026 due to the Chinese tariff restricting what they can sell in China due to relative prices including the tariff,” he summarizes.

Beef Imports Today

Peel says, “Beef imports increased 18% year over year in 2025 and are up 61.4% since 2022, the year of record U.S. beef production and when the current market run began. Total beef production in 2025 was down 3.6% year over year and is down 8.1% since 2022. More important relative to beef imports, production of nonfed beef (from cull cows and bulls) was down 8.0% last year and is down 24.8% since 2022. In fact, nonfed beef production in 2025 was the smallest total since 2005.”

Peel says in a recent Cow-Calf Corner article , increased beef imports are the market response to declining lean beef supplies due to decreased nonfed beef production since most beef imports are lean processing beef. Higher prices of lean beef in the U.S. prompts increased imports from any of several potential beef import sources.

“The amount of beef imports from various sources depends on several factors including: the country’s ability to produce and export; other export markets for the country; and relative price competitiveness of the country, which depends on exchange rates and tariffs the country faces,” Peel explains.

Peel summarizes the top importing countries since 2022:

Australia — up 251.1%
Canada — up 4.3%
Brazil — up 99.9%
Mexico — down 4%
New Zealand — up 37.2%
Uruguay — up 158.8%

Figure 1: U.S. Beef Import, 2019-2025, Million Pounds, Carcass Weight

(Oklahoma State University)

“Record high U.S. ground beef prices continue to be the focus of political discussion along with the possibility of increased beef imports to address unprecedented lean beef prices,” Peel says. “It is important to remember that beef imports are limited only by market forces that determine the total quantity and the mix of sources supplying beef to the U.S. market.”

The latest data for January show some interesting changes in beef imports. Total January beef imports were up 7.7% year over year and up 86% compared to January 2022, see Figure 2.

Figure 2: Beef Import, January. Total January beef imports were up 7.7% year over year and up 86% compared to January 2022.

(Oklahoma State University)

Peel points out the ost noticeable in Figure 2 is the jump in the other category, up 119% from one year ago.

“The biggest part of these other sources is Paraguay, a new player in the beef import market,” he says. “January beef imports from Paraguay were up 147.4% year over year and accounted for 61.1% of the other category and 10.8% of total monthly beef imports. Paraguay has only been exporting to the U.S. since 2024,”

According to Peel Paraguay was able to capture a significant portion of the “Other Country” quota that Brazil has dominated the past four years. January beef imports from Brazil were down 15.1%year over year. Combined January imports from Brazil and Paraguay were up 5.3% year over year. He says this illustrates that markets are determining the total level of imports and also the distribution of sources of beef imports.

Argentina has been the focus of much of the political discussion about beef imports.

Argentina represented 26.1% of the other category and 2.3% of total beef imports in 2025. Peel says Argentina has been granted an expanded tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 2026. Total beef imports from Argentina in 2025 were more than double the previous quota and were limited by market conditions rather than the quota. In January 2026, imports of Argentina were up 122.5% year over year but still represented just 16.1% of other country imports and 2.8% of total January imports (Figure 2).

Peel adds It’s not clear whether Argentina will be able to fill the additional quota this year. The increase would be at the expense of domestic consumption and/or other export markets in Argentina. Increase in beef imports from Argentina would likely displace some imports from other sources.

“Expected growth in beef imports in 2026 will continue to be determined by market forces and may include some relative increase in imports from Argentina,” Peel summarizes.

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USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden Says High-Level Washington Meeting Puts Fertilizer Industry on the Spot

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:09:59 GMT

The fertilizer market has been a growing point of tension in agriculture for years, but USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says recent meetings in Washington marked a more direct and wide-ranging confrontation between federal officials and the companies that dominate input supply. Those discussions, he says, were not limited to USDA alone but included a broader slice of the administration’s economic leadership, signaling how central fertilizer costs have become to the national conversation on food production and inflation.

Vaden says cabinet-level officials from the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative were present, alongside USDA leadership and state agriculture commissioners from Iowa and Georgia. Fertilizer executives were also in the room, making the meeting a rare setting where policy makers, regulators and industry leaders sat together to address pricing, supply constraints and long-term market structure.

He says the purpose was not simply informational, but confrontational in the sense of putting real-world farm impacts directly in front of industry decision-makers.

“It was an opportunity for those other cabinet officials to hear from the fertilizer company executives,” Vaden says, “and for those fertilizer company executives to hear from the secretary and me, as well as our two state counterparts who joined, about the real harm that farmers are facing from uncertainty in the market and, equally as importantly, years of elevated prices.”

Vaden says what often gets lost outside agriculture is that the current fertilizer environment is not a short-term disruption, but the continuation of a multi-year pricing trend that has reshaped farm budgets.

“For people who don’t pay attention to ag every day like your listeners do, they may think this fertilizer thing came out of nowhere,” Vaden says. “But American farmers know that we’re on year five or more of elevated prices for fertilizer, and questions about adequate supply of all fertilizer types.”

He adds that the timing of the discussions is critical, as global geopolitical tensions are only adding pressure to already strained markets.

“So I see this as an opportunity now that the attention of everyone is focused on fertilizer, not just agriculture, to begin to solve the problem that has taken years to develop and that has been exacerbated by the current situation in the Middle East,” Vaden says. “So that we don’t find ourselves in another long-term question about fertilizer supply going forward.”

USDA Pushes Industry: Bring Projects Forward or Explain the Bottlenecks

As discussions continue with fertilizer companies, Vaden says USDA is shifting the conversation from general concern to specific accountability. Rather than broad discussions about market conditions, he says officials are now asking companies to identify concrete projects that could increase supply and to explain why those investments have not yet materialized.

This approach, he says, reflects a broader strategy inside the department to move beyond analysis and toward action, particularly in areas where supply constraints have persisted for years without meaningful change.

In meetings held both jointly and separately with industry leaders, Vaden says USDA has been consistent in its message to fertilizer companies.

“We are saying the same thing to everyone who comes before the department,” Vaden says. “Be a part of the solution, don’t be a part of the problem.”

He says that includes detailed questions about whether expansion projects are already in development but stalled due to permitting delays, regulatory barriers or capital constraints. In some cases, he says, USDA is asking companies to identify where federal or state action could realistically speed up timelines.

“We are asking them what projects they have in the pipeline that they can bring on board to create new fertilizer supplies, hopefully here domestically, but if necessary, near-shoring overseas,” Vaden says. “And are there steps that we can take to make those projects move faster? Are there permits that are held up? Are there states or localities that are holding up their expansions? Are there investments that they are looking for with regard to needing capital to be able to expand their production capacity?”

He adds the department is not approaching the issue passively, but actively pressing for answers.

“We’re asking as many questions as we are making declarative statements, and we’re trying to see what levers we can pull to get more supply on the market,” Vaden says.

Market Concentration at Center of USDA Concerns

Beyond supply timelines and permitting issues, Vaden says one of the core structural concerns in fertilizer markets is the level of consolidation, particularly in phosphate production where a small number of companies control a dominant share of supply.

He says that level of concentration raises fundamental questions about how prices are formed and whether farmers are receiving signals that reflect true market conditions.

With that in mind, Vaden says USDA is focusing heavily on competition and price discovery as part of its broader review of input markets.

“With one of our fertilizer markets, there are two companies that control 90% market share,” Vaden says. “Anybody, I don’t care whether it’s fertilizer or what any other commodity you want to talk about, if there are only two major players, how can anyone be sure that the price you are paying reflects actual market conditions?”

He says the issue is not simply about individual price spikes, but about whether enough competition exists to keep pricing behavior transparent and responsive.

“In order to have adequate price discovery in a market, you need multiple players,” Vaden says.

That concern, he adds, is one of the reasons fertilizer investigations already underway by federal agencies predate recent geopolitical disruptions and continue to expand.

Vaden Details Heated Meeting With Mosaic: “A Different Tune in My Conference Room”

Among the most pointed parts of Vaden’s interview are his comments about a recent face-to-face meeting with Mosaic, one of the most influential players in the phosphate fertilizer market. He says the discussion, held in his conference room just this week, was direct and, at times, uncomfortable, focusing heavily on production decisions, capacity investment and the company’s role in a highly concentrated global market.

Vaden says he challenged Mosaic on why additional production capacity has not been brought online in the United States over a long period of time, and what barriers the company believes are preventing expansion.

He says he left the meeting with clear expectations for follow-up information from the company, describing it as an assignment rather than a casual discussion.

“I gave them a homework assignment,” Vaden says. “I told them what I expected to see, and I hope that they will get back to me as soon as possible.”

But what stood out most to him, he says, was not just what was said in the room, but how it contrasted with the company’s public messaging.

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

In his view, there was a noticeable difference between internal discussions and external communications, particularly on social media, where fertilizer policy debates have increasingly played out in public.

“And I will say, without being able to go into details, when they were in my office, they were singing a slightly different tune than they were signing on Twitter responding to the president’s Truth Social message that you noted,” Vaden says.

He uses that contrast to underscore what he sees as a broader disconnect between industry messaging and the realities USDA believes farmers are facing.

“We need more supply, we need answers, your company hasn’t provided either of those two things,” Vaden says. “It’s about time that you did.”

Industry Responses, Trade Policy Pressure and the Mosaic Question

While Vaden applies pressure to Mosaic, he notes that not all fertilizer companies are taking the same stance on trade policy and tariffs. He points specifically to Nutrien, which he says has indicated support for removing certain trade enforcement measures.

“I was very happy after I met with the Nutrien CEO that they came out and announced we don’t need this CVD order anymore,” Vaden says.

By contrast, he says Mosaic’s position on countervailing duties and phosphate trade enforcement remains unresolved, and that broader policy decisions are now effectively waiting on the company’s response.

He characterizes the situation as fluid but heavily dependent on industry input.

“Right now the question is in Mosaic’s court, if you will,” Vaden says. “And we’re waiting for an answer from them.”

He adds that regulatory or executive action is unlikely to be taken in a vacuum while negotiations and responses are still unfolding.

“One thing that I know as a lawyer is that there’s a whole lot more possible if you have consent of the parties than if you don’t,” Vaden says. “With consent, nearly all things are possible.”

Investigations Expand as USDA Seeks Farmer-Reported Data

Alongside industry meetings, Vaden says USDA is working with the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission on ongoing fertilizer market investigations, with a particular focus on pricing behavior and market transparency.

He says one challenge is the nature of pricing information itself, which often reaches farmers through informal channels and can change quickly.

“We’re asking questions and waiting for answers, and we need farmers’ help as part of our question asking,” Vaden says.

He describes a pattern many farmers have reported directly to USDA, where fertilizer prices are quoted in a way that encourages immediate purchase rather than delayed buying.

“I know in my own family’s operation that you get phone calls, and those phone calls tell you ‘Here’s what the price is now, and if you wait, here’s what the price will be later,’” Vaden says. “And that later price is never lower than the price that it is now.”

To address that, he says USDA is working on a confidential reporting system designed to protect farmer identity while improving data quality for investigators.

“If they trust us with their information, if they trust us with the facts that they have, they’ll be able to remain anonymous,” Vaden says. “And the companies under investigation will not know who shared what data with us.”

“This Has Been Going On for Too Long”

Vaden closes by emphasizing that fertilizer prices and supply constraints are not a new challenge for agriculture, but an entrenched issue that has persisted through multiple years and market cycles.

He says the administration is trying to shift both short-term supply conditions and long-term structural dynamics at the same time, adding that USDA’s goal is not temporary relief, but sustained changes in supply, competition and pricing stability.

“We are focused on getting new supplies here now, and not just now, but next year and the year after that and the years after that,” Vaden says. “So that we can have guaranteed new supplies over the long term.”

Vaden’s Message to Farmers: “We’re Saying the Same Thing in Public and in Private”

At the end of the conversation, Vaden returned to what he described as the central audience for everything USDA is doing on fertilizer: farmers themselves. He acknowledged frustration is not just growing, but it has become a defining sentiment across much of farm country as input costs remain elevated and supply questions persist year after year.

He emphasized USDA’s posture is not different depending on the room or the audience, whether speaking with industry executives, other federal agencies, or producers themselves.

“I want farmers to know that when I am sitting with representatives of other cabinet departments or when I am sitting with big fertilizer CEOs, I am saying the same thing in private that you hear me saying in public,” Vaden says. “I do not change my tune. I may be slightly more polite, but I am equally as direct in terms of telling them what I think the situation is.”

Vaden says that directness is rooted in what he believes farmers are already experiencing on the ground, particularly when it comes to fertilizer pricing volatility and uncertainty in purchasing decisions. He says producers are not misreading the situation — they are responding to real, long-running pressures.

He also acknowledges the emotional toll on producers is part of the reality USDA is hearing more frequently.

“I especially communicate to them that farmers have gone from exasperation to anger with the situation that we have now,” Vaden says. “They are not wrong to be feeling those emotions because they understand that this is not a new situation.”

Looking ahead, Vaden says USDA’s goal is not just to address short-term pricing spikes, but to change the underlying conditions that have kept fertilizer costs elevated for years. That includes expanding supply, increasing competition and improving long-term stability in input markets.

“This is an issue that has bedeviled American agriculture for at least five years, and it is time that it stopped,” Vaden says.

Trump Warns Fertilizer Giants Against "Price Gouging" as Costs Soar 40%

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:46:54 GMT

Fertilizer market volatility is once again taking center stage as geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply lines and push input costs sharply higher. New analysis shows the increase in fertilizer prices may not be over, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Even with the situation in Iran pushing prices even higher, the sharp increase in fertilizer prices from 2020 to now is catching attention in Washington. Not only did President Donald Trump take to social media to warn of ‘price gouging,’ but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also posted on X Monday, specifically expressing frustration over Mosaic’s response to farmers.

While Rollins and USDA Under Secretary Stephen Vaden have raised concerns over fertilizer prices this year, the president posted on Truth Social over the weekend that he is closely monitoring fertilizer prices and pledged support for American farmers.

Trump said Saturday on his Truth Social platform he is “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY” during what he described as the US “FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran”, adding that the administration “will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly”.

On Monday, Rollins posted on X, saying she was “So disappointed in this response” from Mosaic, “especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market.”

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

Mosaic announced last week the decision to shut down major phosphate operations in Brazil, a move the that will cut production, reduce jobs, and signal a *strategic shift in how the fertilizer giant deploys its capital.

Mosaic Company announced Thursday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil as part of a broader effort to cut costs and shift capital. Mosaic expects idling of the facilities to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. CEO Bruce Bodine says the decision reflects what he calls a disciplined focus on long-term returns.

.@MosaicCompany, you’re right that U.S. farmers are facing a difficult economic situation, only made worse by the extra $6.9 BILLION they have had to spend on fertilizer since you petitioned the government to place duties on imported phosphorus. This has played a major role in… https://t.co/UuOqjE0jBu
— National Corn (NCGA) (@NationalCorn) April 13, 2026

Mosaic and Simplot have also been in the cross hairs of the push to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate . Groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) claim the CVDs are costing U.S. agriculture $1 billion each year.

The CVDs on Moroccan phosphate were put into place by the International Trade Commission (ITC) in 2021. As the sunset review begins, more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC to revoke the countervailing duties on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia.

In separate filings by Mosaic and Simplot to the ITC and the Department of Commerce, both companies said the continuation is necessary to maintain a “level playing field.”

In a written response to Farm Journal, Mosaic said:

“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high-quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Iran War’s Current Impact on Fertilizer Prices

The message from the Trump adminstration comes as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States is weighing a potential full naval blockade. Ship traffic through the critical waterway has already dropped from roughly 135 vessels per day to the single digits. A complete shutdown could halt flows entirely, further increasing fertilizer prices.

The stakes are high as roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments move through the strait, and the disruption is already sending prices higher, up more than 40% compared to a year ago.

It is the 6-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fert price comparisons:

NOLA urea - +$230 or 49%
NOLA UAN - +$145 or 38%
Midwest NH3 - +$245 or 32%
NOLA DAP - +$130 or 21%
NOLA potash - +$10 or 3%

...corn - 2-cents or 0.5% higher#sickeningforfarmers
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) April 10, 2026

Market data shows the impact Iran is having on already high fertilizer prices. According to StoneX analyst Josh Linville says in the six weeks since the war started:

Urea prices have surged by $230 per ton, a 49% increase
UAN is up $145 per ton, or 38%
Anhydrous ammonia has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump.
In contrast, corn prices have barely responded, rising just two cents, or about half a percent. The divergence is putting additional pressure on farm margins.

DOJ Probe Into Fertilizer Costs Seeks Input From Farmers

The Trump administration is asking farmers to help provide information as part of an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into elevated costs for fertilizer, machinery and other key agricultural inputs, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported the effort is aimed at gathering more on-the-ground data as regulators examine whether fertilizer producers may have coordinated to raise prices. The DOJ investigation was first reported in early March, when Bloomberg said federal officials had begun looking into whether fertilizer companies engaged in price coordination.

According to the Bloomberg report, Vaden said he has already met with officials at both the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to discuss potential lines of inquiry. He also noted that farmers could play a key role in the process.

Vaden said farmers “have a lot of information that might be relevant to these investigations.”

Bloomberg previously reported in early March that the Department of Justice is investigating whether fertilizer producers colluded to increase prices.

Speaking at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual conference in Washington on Monday, Vaden encouraged farmer participation in the probe, emphasizing confidentiality protections.

“We need farmers to help provide us with that information on a confidential basis, so that that can help inform the investigations that are ongoing,” Vaden said, according to Bloomberg. “I think we will have a mechanism in order to help encourage that exchange of information.”

NCGA Surveys Show Not All Farmers Have Fertilizer Secured for 2026

Against that backdrop, along with fertilizer prices climbing even higher in the six weeks after the conflict started with Iran, new surveys results from NCGA highlight how those market pressures are translating to on-farm realities.

Krista Swanson, chief economist for NCGA, says the organization conducted the survey to better understand fertilizer availability from the farmer perspective. Ag Secretary Rollins has told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026, but NCGA data contradicts that figure.

“We’re hearing that number being thrown around too, which is why we really wanted to find out directly from farmers what the status is for them,” Swanson says.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

A Significant Gap in Fertilizer Readiness

The surveys show that only 60% of farmers report having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured for the 2026 growing season, while 64% say the same for phosphate. That leaves a sizable portion of producers still working to lock in supplies.

“When you think about over 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., this isn’t a small number,” Swanson says. “Our survey results indicate that over 200,000 farmers still need at least some fertilizer for this year.”

Nitrogen remains a critical input for corn production and is closely tied to yield potential. Any shortfall, whether driven by availability or cost, can directly affect productivity and profitability.

NCGA Grower Surveys

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

Younger Farmers Feeling the Pressure Most

The survey also points to uneven impacts across the farm sector, with younger farmers facing greater challenges in securing fertilizer.

Swanson says younger producers reported having more nitrogen left to purchase compared to older farmers.

“You think about younger farmers that have less capital already built up in their business, maybe tighter cash flow needs because of their equity position,” she says. “This does seem to have a disproportional impact on younger farmers.”

That dynamic raises concerns about financial strain among newer operations in a high-cost environment.

Corn Acres Likely Stable, But With Reduced Inputs

Despite the challenges, most farmers are not planning to reduce corn acreage. The survey found that 80% of respondents expect to maintain their planned acres.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

At the same time, fertilizer application rates may fall short. Half of the farmers surveyed say they do not expect to apply their full amount of fertilizer.

“Pairing these two together, it seems to me like we are still going to see a lot of corn acres get planted,” Swanson says. “But those corn acres will have less fertilizer than maybe what they would have otherwise had.”

That combination could limit yield potential if input reductions become widespread.

Growing Concern Shifts to 2027

While fertilizer availability remains a concern for 2026, attention is already turning to the next crop year. Fertilizer purchasing follows a rolling cycle, and planning for 2027 will begin soon.

Survey responses show that for every one farmer more concerned about fertilizer price and availability for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

“So farmers are concerned as we look ahead to next year,” Swanson says.

The shift reflects uncertainty about how long supply disruptions and elevated prices will persist.

Supply Chain Recovery May Take Time

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, relief may not come quickly. Swanson notes that the fertilizer market is still dealing with production disruptions and supply chain backlogs.

“A short-term ceasefire has limited immediate impact on this ongoing fertilizer crisis for farmers,” she says. “Even when a permanent end to the situation is reached, we’re still looking at recovery from supply chain backlogs and halted production that could take a long time to recover from.”

Damage to key inputs such as liquid natural gas and sulfur production could take years to repair, keeping pressure on supply.

A Tightening Outlook

The NCGA survey underscores a challenging environment for corn producers. Most acres are expected to be planted this year, but not all will receive optimal fertilizer applications. At the same time, concern is building for 2027 as farmers look ahead to the next purchasing cycle.

For many producers, the issue is no longer just securing fertilizer for this season. It is navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that could shape production decisions, costs, and risk management strategies across the U.S. corn sector.

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

In September 2025, USDA and the U.S. Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding, committing both agencies to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, which included fertilizer, by scrutinizing competitive conditions in agricultural markets and enforcing antitrust laws, particularly around price setting and market concentration.

While geopolitical tensions are the latest driver of volatility, many farm groups argue the root of the problem runs deeper. Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, says ongoing federal investigations into fertilizer pricing must lead to meaningful action.

“We appreciate the administration’s investigations into input costs,” Perdue says. “But investigations don’t do anything if they’re not followed by enforcement, and they don’t do anything if we don’t learn what came out of those investigations.”

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Texas farmer Dee Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

The Next Guatemala? USMEF Sees Massive Upside for U.S. Beef and Pork in Ecuador

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 19:22:33 GMT

Ecuador recently became the ninth country to sign an agreement on reciprocal trade with the U.S. And while it will take some time to implement, once in place, the deal will greatly expand opportunities for U.S. beef and pork in Ecuador, according to U.S. Meat Export Federation Vice President for Economic Analysis Erin Borror.

Tariffs of 20% on beef and 45% on pork are mostly phased out, although there are exceptions on pork.
A 30% tariff on processed pork products which will remain in place.
The agreement recognizes all USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) inspected facilities as eligible for export to Ecuador, removing the need for individual facility approvals.

“The tariff on beef is basically 20% and that’s phased to zero in the agreement over three years,” Borror explains. “For pork, tariffs of 45% are mostly phased out. There are some exceptions on further processed products and sausages that will see tariffs remain at 30%.”

Borror says one of the key wins in these reciprocal trade agreements is getting countries to recognize FSIS, the U.S. food safety authority, as the competent authority.

“They will recognize all FSIS-inspected facilities as eligible to export, rather than going through onerous questionnaires, plant-by-plant audits and maintaining plant lists which have gotten to be unmanageable,” she says.

Borror expects export growth to be similar to what was seen in Guatemala after passage of the Central America Free Trade Agreement.

“Both of those countries have a population of close to 18 million people,” she says. “Their GDP per capita is somewhere close to $7,000, so very similar. And if we take Guatemala, U.S. beef export growth from 2006 to 2025, saw growth from $3 million to $105 million. For pork, the market went from $10 million to $148 million.”

In 2025, the U.S. exported virtually no pork to Ecuador and only $3 million in beef. She says there is great potential in Ecuador.

Cattle Start Higher Monday on COF Report, Cash: Uncertainty on Plant Strike, Tariffs Remains

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:30:16 GMT

Markets opened mixed on Monday but early in the session turned mostly higher except wheat.

Cattle Firm After Friendly Cattle on Feed
The cattle futures were higher early Monday rebounding from Friday’s lower close and a round of profit taking. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the USDA Cattle on Feed report was providing some support. The on feed number came in at 98% of a year ago, placements were at 95% which was below trade estimates and marketings were at 87%.

“Remember this is the second report now that is as compared to when the border had been closed. So the the Texas placement number coming in at 93% that’s 93% of a very small number of the total 98%, again, you get it, right? We’re placing against something that was very small back then. Now, the thing that is a little bit different and consistent with what it’s been is that the two northern states, Nebraska, on feed at 103%. They are easily the number one state now for cattle on feed. Iowa at 100 % on feed. One thing about good old Iowa here, I happen to notice our marketing figure was 115%, which is I’m really glad to see that.” That’s because he was worried some feeders are intentionally feeding these cattle to heavier weights with cheap corn and high priced replacements, plus good weather. .

He adds, “You know that Texas placement number is still 80% of the five -year average to get a little more perspective, even if how that works. So yeah, we got through that.”

Greeley, CO Plant Strike
The other news on Friday was the workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, CO did not strike but the situation has not been resolved. “They got through that first set of meetings on Friday, they’re making steps, but again, this could be posturing. I mean, they’ve set up sign -up sheets. So this is where you sign up if you want to get benefits if they go on strike. So it would seem like there’s some prep on the labor’s part, but again, you know, that can be so much posturing. Of course, they’re killing today.
I don’t know that there’s another meeting scheduled. These negotiations have been going on for more than eight months. So we’ll see. Let’s hope that they strike a deal and we can get on down the road. Any kind of lengthy stoppage there would be
very problematic. That’s a very big plant. JBS’s biggest one or one of their biggest ones at 5 ,400. So hopefully we can put this matter to rest by the time we talk next week, but I got a hunch we won’t. I think this is going to be an ongoing issue.”

Cash Higher Last Week
Cash trade was also higher last week, but for Kooima some what underwhelming as he had talked about the possibility of $250 cash. “I was real confident we were going to have $2.50 up and down the road, you know, or at least, you know, a little more of it. So I shouldn’t say that I’m disappointed. Basically, the north, we ended up with bids of $247, and that would have been one to $2 higher than the week prior. So that’s not so bad. And $247 is still a huge price. Pardon Pardon me, the south,
particularly western Nebraska, did trade some cattle at $249, late Friday. For them, that was actually a $1 higher. So I’d call the cash market still good, but maybe a little bit underneath the expectations.”

He says this week there are a lot of cattle carried over. However, there aren’t big numbers. “If we can keep Greeley out of the news, I’m going to say steady better. I do think that people are, you know, after galloping higher for three straight weeks and then last week’s trade was kind of like, you know, grudgingly higher, a packer that was trying to play a little more hardball. Kill cuts are still very real. I don’t know. I’m going to say steady firm and I hope I’m wrong.”

Tariff Concerns
So is the cattle market at all concerned that SCOTUS struck down the IEEPA tariffs? President Trump put new tariffs of 15% on over the weekend for all but USMCA partners, China and the EU because of the current frameworks. However, Kooima says the market doesn’t like uncertainty so he says the jury is still out regarding the reaction and a lot will depend on whether countries retaliate, plus the stock market reaction.

Hogs Rally a Fifth Day
Lean hog futures are up a 5th day on short covering. However, Kooima is still concerned that the market may have a difficult time rallying because of the big slaughter numbers. “We’re at an interesting spot here right now, you’re right, this fifth day up off the lows. This is 38 % retracement. I got the chart up above me here. Weights are big, cash was crappy on Friday down a couple bucks, product sloppy. It’s too many hogs. I mean, every day that slaughter is so big. We’ve got to have perfect demand, and I’m not sure we do. I think domestic demand is really quite good. Global demand, yeah, you know, not so much. And there, you know, the tariffs talk maybe gets to be something to be worried about, too. I don’t know. There’s a couple
of spots in the charts right here that I think are kind of critical resistance. My inclination would be to think maybe we would fail from here. I hope I’m wrong for the producers’ sake, but I don’t think we’re in a great spot fundamentally on the
hogs here at all, just because of the big supply.”

Corn, Soybeans Higher
Corn and soybeans have faded the concerns about retaliation regarding President Trump’s new tariffs or China back off the extra 8 MMT of soybean purchases as the SCOTUS ruling may have taken leverage away from the U.S. Part of the strength may be due to the Trump administration confirming the meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing on March 31-April 2. The other factor is soybean oil continues to make new contract highs on biofuels policy hopes.

“I think that that’s really the story there, the renewable fuel initiative here and the likelihood it will be positive. The feeling is that Washington indeed does need to throw a bone here to the row crop crop people, and that would certainly be a good one. So the new contract highs today on the bean oil helps for sure,” he says.

Supreme Court Strikes Down Use of Emergency Powers for Trump's Tariffs

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 15:32:48 GMT

In a landmark ruling with major implications for U.S. trade and agriculture, the Supreme Court has struck down President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. The 6-3 decision confirms that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president authority to issue broad import duties.

The Supreme Court case known as “Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump” is an end to a legal battle that started nearly a year ago. The tariffs at issue, which were originally imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), were first challenged in court in April 2025 when companies, including educational toy makers Learning Resources and hand2mind, sued in federal court shortly after the duties were announced. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

In the case Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump the court ruled, “We claim no special competence in matters of economics or foreign affairs. We claim only, as we must, the limited role assigned to us by Article III of the Constitution. Fulfilling that role, we hold that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.”

“IEEPA gives the president significant authority over transactions involving foreign property, including the importation of goods. But in that generous delegation, one power is conspicuously missing,” said the decision. “Nothing in IEEPA’s text, nor anything in its context, enables the president to unilaterally impose tariffs. And needless to say, without statutory authority, the president’s tariffs cannot stand.”

The Court’s ruling on Friday has major implications.

Initially, grain futures weakened after the ruling. Soybeans turned lower on fears the decision takes away a key bargaining chip ahead of Trump’s April meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, raising questions about whether Beijing will follow through on additional soybean purchases. The ruling, however, could be supportive in the event it prompts China to drop its tariff on U.S. soybean imports.

Stocks rallied, with major U.S. indexes extending gains after the ruling, while Treasury yields jumped and the U.S. dollar weakened against major rivals.

The decision is a blow to President Trump’s economic agenda. The president imposed what he called reciprocal tariffs on several countries in April 2025, calling trade deficits a national emergency.

What This Means for Trump’s Tariffs

Lower courts, including the U.S. Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit, had previously struck down these tariffs as exceeding executive authority. The Supreme Court affirmed those rulings, which means tariffs imposed solely under IEEPA now lack a valid legal foundation. Importers could see injunctions halting collections, and companies that already paid duties may seek refunds, potentially putting billions of dollars of federal revenue at risk.

But not all Trump-era tariffs are affected. Duties imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which are deemed as national security tariffs, as well as the ones under Section 301 of the Trade Act, which are China-related tariffs, rely on separate statutory authority and remain intact unless challenged independently.

What This Means for Farmers, Agriculture and the Future of Trade

For agriculture, the ruling adds uncertainty to future trade leverage strategies. Many farm groups have viewed tariffs as both a negotiating tool and a source of retaliation risk.

The Court’s decision reinforces separation-of-powers limits, signaling that major shifts in tariff policy must originate in Congress, not through broad interpretations of emergency statutes.

Now that Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs has been struck down as exceeding executive authority, tariffs based solely on that law are unlikely to stand without congressional approval, while those enacted under other trade statutes remain in place, for now.

The ruling narrows presidential flexibility on trade and could reshape how future administrations approach tariff policy.

President Trump Reacts By Announcing New Tariffs

Speaking later in the day on Friday, President Trump announced he would issue a new 10% “global tariff,” while also arguing the Court’s decision limited one tool but clarified others, claiming the justices had effectively strengthened presidential trade authority by narrowing the scope of IEEPA rather than tariffs themselves.

In a swift response to the high court’s decision, Trump announced Friday that he will sign an executive order imposing a new 10% “global tariff,” just hours after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down his sweeping “reciprocal” import duties in a 6-3 ruling.

The new tariffs will be invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and layered on top of other levies that remain in place following the court’s decision. Speaking during a White House press briefing, Trump called the ruling “deeply disappointing” and said he was “ashamed of certain members of the court” for lacking “the courage to do what’s right for our country.”

The court’s ruling invalidated the legal foundation underpinning many of the tariffs Trump has argued are essential to strengthening the U.S. economy and rebuilding domestic manufacturing capacity. Despite the setback, Trump signaled he will pursue alternative avenues to maintain and expand tariffs without congressional approval.

“I don’t have to,” Trump said when asked why he would not work with lawmakers. “I have the right to do tariffs.”

His remarks grew increasingly pointed, including criticism of Justices he nominated who joined the majority. Trump said he believed their decision was “terrible” and “an embarrassment,” underscoring his frustration with the outcome.

Tariffs imposed under Section 122 can remain in effect for up to 150 days. Any extension beyond that period would require approval from Congress.

Reaction to Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs

Farmers for Free Trade quickly weighed in following the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the President’s authority to impose global tariffs under IEEPA.

“Today’s Supreme Court decision is an important step toward restoring predictability and the rule of law in American trade policy,” says Brian Kuehl, executive director of Farmers for Free Trade. “Tariffs imposed under IEEPA have been devastating for American farmers, driving up costs for inputs like fertilizer, equipment, and parts while triggering retaliatory tariffs that cut off critical export markets. Farmers have been caught in the crossfire, paying more for what they need while losing access to the customers they depend on.”

Kuehl notes while the ruling removes one source of uncertainty, concerns remain that new tariffs could be imposed through other legal avenues.

“Any new approach would likely invite the same retaliation from our trading partners that has already caused so much damage to American farmers. Tariffs hurt farmers on both ends, raising what they pay and reducing where they can sell,” he says.

The priority should now be stabilizing trade relationships and expanding market access for U.S. agricultural products, Kuehl adds, urging the administration to work with Congress on comprehensive trade solutions that “open markets rather than close them.”

According to Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at Fitch Ratings, the Court’s ruling is a material rollback because more than 60% of the 2025 tariffs effectively vanish. The U.S. effective tariff rate drops from about 13% to around 6%, removing more than $200 billion in expected annual tariff collections.

“Call it Liberation Day 2.0 — arguably the first one with tangible upside for U.S. consumers and corporate profitability,” he says. “However, the bigger macro takeaway is not just ‘lower tariffs,’ but ‘higher tariff-regime uncertainty.’ The odds that tariffs reappear in a revised form remain meaningful. Layer on potential tariff refunds, and you introduce a messy operational and legal overhang that amplifies economic uncertainty.”

In response to the ruling, the American Soybean Association (ASA) issued the following statement from Scott Metzger, ASA President and Ohio farmer: “The case at the Supreme Court has been closely followed by soybean farmers who have seen the cost of inputs rise over the past year due to tariffs. U.S. soybean growers are reliant upon imports for critical farming tools like fertilizer, seeds, pesticides and agriculture equipment. Moving forward, certainty and dependable market access are essential for U.S. soy to remain competitive globally. Because farmers are caught in a cost-price squeeze and ag input costs remain high, we urge the President to refrain from imposing tariffs on agricultural inputs using other authorities. We look forward to working with the Trump Administration and Congress to strengthen market opportunities and support a stable farm economy for generations to come.”

The International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA) welcomes the Supreme Court’s decision clarifying the limits of IEEPA and reaffirming that broad, country-specific tariffs fall outside its intended scope.

“While targeted tariffs can be a tool for addressing inequities between trading partners, the broad application of this blunt instrument can disrupt markets, raise consumer costs, and place unnecessary strain on growers and producers across the supply chain,” IFPA said in a statement. “IFPA does not believe tariffs should be used as a default response to every trade concern facing the United States, nor should this ruling simply prompt a shift to other tariff authorities. Instead, IFPA hopes this ruling allows policymakers to move beyond broad tariff actions and continue working toward lower trade barriers that ensure affordable access to fresh produce and floral products.

“While tariffs have been one challenge for the fresh produce and floral sectors, IFPA appreciates the administration’s commitment to easing regulatory burdens and supporting American agriculture and looks forward to working with policymakers on long-term solutions — such as equitable trade agreements, regulatory reform and workforce stability — that strengthen food security and ensure affordable, accessible produce for all families.”

What Now? Exploring Alternatives to IEEPA Tariffs

While the Supreme Court’s ruling removes the legal foundation for tariffs imposed under IEEPA, it does not mean U.S. import duties are going away anytime soon. According to a recent op-ed , President Trump still has options when it comes to using tariffs as a tool. However, trade experts say while there are other options, statutory guardrails may limit some of the more rapid changes seen under IEEPA.

According to the recent analysis, the possible alternatives include:

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: The basis for existing China tariffs. This gives the U.S. Trade Representative broad authority to target “unfair” foreign trade practices, allowing for unilateral action once investigations conclude.
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Used for national security tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum, and other goods. Courts have been deferential to the administration’s claims, and new tariffs under this authority could generate revenue comparable to IEEPA tariffs.
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974: Intended to address balance-of-payments deficits through import surcharges or quotas. While the statute has never been used for this purpose, it allows short-term tariffs of up to 15 percent, which could be reimposed in cycles without a congressional vote, though this strategy would likely face legal challenges.

As the op-ed points out, the Supreme Court ruling eliminates one controversial path for tariffs, but Washington still has multiple avenues to impose import duties, and legal challenges are almost certain to follow any new moves.

2026 Beef Economics: How Global Trade is a Fast Moving Lever

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 12:16:57 GMT

In part 1 of my 2026 beef economy series, we focused on domestic supply: fewer cattle, fewer pounds and the cattle cycle still doing cattle cycle things. In part 2, we will focus on trade, and this is where 2026 gets jumpy. Trade is a fast-moving lever in the beef complex. It can swing packer profitability, cattle prices and consumer affordability long before the domestic herd can respond.

Here’s the framework:

Imports are the pressure-release valve for ground beef and, in tight years, a quiet support beam for beef affordability.
Exports are the carcass value engine, especially for items the U.S. consumer does not consistently bid up (hello, variety meats).
Currency and policy are the accelerants that turn normal market movement into a bar fight.

The cattle inventory report just made imports more important

The latest USDA NASS cattle inventory report (Jan. 30, 2026) is a clean reminder that domestic supply is not expanding fast enough to bail anyone out in 2026.

(The Big Bad Beef Packer)

Key Statistics:

Total cattle and calves: 86.2 million head (Jan 1, 2026).
All cows and heifers that have calved: 37.2 million head.
Beef cows: 27.6 million head, down 1% year over year.
Calf crop (2025): 32.9 million head, down 2%.
All cattle on feed: 13.8 million head, down 3%.
Also worth noting: beef replacement heifers were reported up 1% to 4.71 million head (early hint of intent, not proof of a rebuild, yet).

Here’s why that is bullish imports.

A smaller beef cow herd and a smaller calf crop keep the domestic supply base tight. Tight domestic supply does two things at once:

It keeps more pressure on lean availability over time, which increases reliance on imported lean trim to keep ground beef moving.
It makes the U.S. more willing to pull imported product to fill gaps and protect retail sets, especially when consumers trade down.

“Bullish imports” does not mean imports are cheap. It means the need for imports increases when domestic supply stays tight.

The 2026 trade direction: higher imports, lower exports

The USDA ERS baseline for 2026 is still pointing to more imports and fewer exports.

(The Big Bad Beef Packer)

2026 beef imports forecast: 5.525 billion lb. (up from 2025).
2026 beef exports forecast: 2.425 billion lb. (down from 2025).

That is the setup:

More imports can cool the grind and help affordability.
Lower exports can take air out of carcass value and increase competition for product placement at home.

Imports: the grind pressure valve, and a backstop for affordability

In 2026, imports you care about most are:

Lean trim and manufacturing beef for ground beef pricing and availability.
Some primal/subprimal imports that help retailers/foodservice maintain price points and promotional flow when domestic product gets too expensive.
Live cattle flows (Mexico and Canada), because when live movement changes, regional supply gets weird fast.

The USDA FAS global outlook supports this direction: U.S. beef imports are forecast up in 2026 as the U.S. works through tight domestic supplies, including reduced cow and bull slaughter as the cycle shifts.

That is the “imports are bullish” logic tied directly to the cattle report. If the domestic herd is not adding supply, imports do more of the balancing.

Exports: the packers carcass optimization engine

This is where the domestic narrative often misses the point.

Exports are not just about ribeyes to rich people. A meaningful chunk of export value is in items that clear better overseas than they do at home.

Beef variety meats and specialty cuts have been a material contributor to export volume and revenue in recent years. If exports soften, it is not only “less volume.” It is a mix problem and a value problem, which shows up in carcass value and ultimately in packer margin.

Now combine that with where U.S. exports actually matter most: Japan, South Korea, and China are core destinations, with Mexico and Canada always in the conversation. These trade partners are vital to the packers success, as they largely consumer what the U.S. consumer doesn’t.

So if policy restrictions and tariffs intensify, the export engine does not stop, but it gets more competitive and less profitable.

The volatility drivers that will matter most in 2026

You don’t need a long list. In 2026, the big three are enough to move markets, margins, and consumer affordability in a hurry.

1. Tariffs and trade policy
Tariffs are not an abstract geopolitical talking point. They are a cost input.

When a tariff hits imported beef or imported inputs, the cost shows up first at the importer, then gets pushed through the chain. That matters in 2026 because imports are one of the key tools to cap grind inflation and protect beef affordability in a tight domestic supply year.

Compounding effects of multi-national tariffs will create more trade volatility in 2026. As China imposed a lower quota on imports of beef, this could shift more imports from Australia and Brazil into the U.S. If the U.S. were to change policy on tariffs, it could change the trajectory once again.

2. Currency
Currency is the quiet multiplier.

(The Big Bad Packer)

A stronger U.S. dollar generally:

Makes U.S. beef less competitive in export channels
Makes imported beef more attractive into the U.S. market

A weaker dollar generally does the opposite.

In a year like 2026, when domestic supply is tight, currency can shift the balance fast. It can change whether exports clear cleanly, whether imports show up quickly, and whether packers get enough help from trade to keep the carcass moving without margin bleeding even more.

3. Mexican cattle imports and border flow risk
If you want a volatility lever that can reprice regional supply, this is it.

Live cattle flows from Mexico are not just a footnote. When those flows change, the impact is strong:

Regional cattle availability shifts
Plant procurement gets tighter or looser depending on location
Cow and grind economics can move because the system is already tight

In 2026, this is a real risk category because border actions, animal health protocols and enforcement can change quickly. Even without a full shutdown, added friction at the border can slow movement and create the same effect as a supply shock in the regions that rely on those cattle.

That is why Mexican cattle imports belong in the “big three.” It’s not because they drive the entire U.S. supply curve. It’s because they drive volatility when the overall system has no slack.

Tariffs and affordability: the 96% reality check

Here’s the part that should get more airtime in beef circles, because it connects directly to affordability.

New research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that U.S. importers and consumers bear about 96% of the tariff burden, with foreign exporters absorbing only about 4%.

Why this matters in beef trade:

When out-of-quota tariffs or broader tariff actions hit imported beef, it behaves like a consumption tax.
It raises the cost basis for imported product.
And those costs tend to get passed through, which makes beef affordability harder for the consumer, not easier.

So in 2026, imports may be bullish in volume and necessity, but tariffs can still make them an expensive form of relief.

2026 Global Trade Watchlist

Weekly import pace and pricing for lean trim and manufacturing beef
Live cattle flow changes tied to SPS and animal health actions
Currency moves that change export competitiveness and import appetite
Any new tariff actions, plus the pass-through reality that importers and consumers bear most of the cost

Trade conclusion: 2026 is a margin year, and trade is a major lever

Trade volatility in 2026 will be a major swing factor in:

Packer profitability (carcass value and placement options)
Cow prices and grind economics (lean availability and import cost)
Consumer affordability (whether imported relief is available and affordable)

The cattle inventory report tells you the domestic supply base stays tight. That makes the U.S. more reliant on imports for balance. But policy and tariff realities tell you that “reliant” does not mean “cheap.”

— Hyrum Egbert authors the biweekly “ The Big Bad Beef Packer ” newsletter, which takes a look at packinghouse truths, trends and tough questions.

Trump Signs Executive Order Quadrupling Beef Imports from Argentina to Keep Ground Beef Affordable

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 22:39:04 GMT

In a move aimed at easing pressure on U.S. beef supplies and keeping prices in check for consumers, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Feb. 6, 2026, temporarily quadrupling imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina under the U.S. tariff-rate quota (TRQ).

The action comes as USDA confirmed just last week the U.S. cattle herd is now at a 75-year low . Not only are producers showing no signs of herd rebuilding, the White House says low cattle supplies can be attributed to droughts and wildfires in 2022 that impacted key U.S. cattle-producing states, including Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, which have constrained domestic beef production.

Compounding the supply challenges are restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico following detections of the New World screwworm have limited feedlot stocks, contributing to a record-low U.S. cattle herd.

“As President, I have a responsibility to ensure that hard-working Americans can afford to feed themselves and their families,” the proclamation states. “To increase the supply of ground beef for U.S. consumers, I am taking action to temporarily increase the quantity of in-quota imports of lean beef trimmings under the U.S. beef TRQ.”

The proclamation authorizes an 80,000 metric ton increase in in-quota lean beef trimmings imports for 2026, which will be allocated entirely to Argentina. The additional beef will be distributed in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 metric tons each, beginning Feb. 13, 2026, and continuing through the end of the year.

Record Beef Prices Drive Action

U.S. consumers have seen beef prices climb steadily in recent years, with ground beef reaching an average price of $6.69 per pound in December 2025, which was the highest level recorded since the 1980s. Despite higher prices and the availability of alternative proteins, demand for beef remains strong, prompting record beef imports of 4.64 billion pounds in 2024, a 24% increase over the previous year.

But this is not the first time President Trump has proposed measures to address rising beef costs. In October 2025, he told reporters at the White House, “We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef. The price of beef is higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something,” without elaborating.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) responded at the time with a strong warning, criticizing the President’s approach. NCBA CEO Colin Woodall says. the plan risked “damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.”

He emphasizes concerns about trade imbalances, the risk of introducing foreign animal diseases from Argentina, and the importance of focusing on domestic solutions such as New World screwworm facilities, regulatory reforms, and disease prevention programs.

The Trump administration, however, argues the current import expansion is a necessary response to natural disasters and market disruptions that have reduced domestic beef supply. The administration will continue monitoring supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures that may be necessary to ensure stable beef prices for American families.

This proclamation highlights ongoing challenges facing U.S. cattle producers, including climate-related disruptions, disease risks, and supply chain pressures, while signaling the administration’s willingness to leverage international trade to stabilize consumer costs.

Are Beef Prices Too High? Consumer Demand Signals No

Since the president’s initial comments in October, there’s been a debate about if beef prices are too high. Oklahoma State extension livestock specialist Derrell Peel agrees consumer behavior continues to support higher prices, even if there is talk about bringing beef prices down.

“I don’t think we have a demand problem or a beef price problem. Consumers are still paying,” Close says. “If consumers didn’t want to pay high prices for beef, they don’t have to. There’s places they can go. They’re still paying it.”

High prices have raised concerns about whether consumers will eventually push back, but Terrain’s Don Close says demand data continues to defy that narrative.

“Over the last two years at Terrain, we’ve spent more time trying to evaluate and study what we can about demand,” he says. “We’ve known what the supply is.”

By examining beef prices relative to income, inflation and competing proteins, Close said the results remain consistent.

“We’re looking at all-fresh beef prices against the consumer price index. We’re looking all fresh against average hourly wage. We’re now looking at beef in relationship to both pork and broilers,” he says. “And all those matrices that we’re looking at, we’re not seeing and have not yet seen any softening in beef demand. It’s still in place.”

Economists Weigh In: Can Beef Prices Be Lowered Without Harming Producers?

In October, Trump’s initial comments tanked the cattle market. To better understand whether retail beef prices can be reduced without affecting cattle markets, Farm Journal spoke with two economists and livestock market experts. When asked if there’s a way to lower beef prices without impacting cattle futures, both economists say the short answer is, “no.”

“Simple answer is no,” says Close. “I would add to that that when we look at beef prices in relationship to the other proteins, I would absolutely say that pork and broilers have been a beneficiary of the record high beef prices. No doubt. But they are not yet to a point that they are a detriment to beef prices; beef is still gaining market share relative to other proteins.”

David Anderson, extension livestock economist at Texas A&M, echoed that perspective. “I think it’s a great, interesting question, but from the ranch to wholesale beef to retail beef, these prices are all related,” Anderson says. “If it was possible to do something that actually brought down retail prices to consumers, it’s going to have an effect upstream, downstream, however you want to call that. But even then, I’m not sure there’s much you can do to bring down retail prices. We’ve got a product that’s in demand. Even though we look at our nominal retail beef prices that are record high, I think that for consumers, beef delivers value for the money and they’re going to keep buying. That and tighter supplies is a recipe for higher prices. People continue to buy. There’s a bunch of big trends there, heck, let’s eat more protein, you know, and that helps the whole meat complex: beef, dairy, eggs, beans, you name it. So while this supports cattle prices, it also means there’s not a whole lot you can do to bring down beef prices significantly.”

New U.S.-Argentina Trade Deal Sets Stage For President Trump’s Latest Proclamation

The move this week follows a new trade and investment agreement between the United States and Argentina, signed earlier this week by USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentina’s Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno. The agreement provides preferential market access for U.S. goods, eliminates or reduces tariffs on a wide range of products, and enhances cooperation on economic and national security issues.

On agriculture, Argentina has agreed to open its market to U.S. poultry and poultry products within a year and simplify export regulations for U.S. beef and pork. The agreement also requires Argentina to accept U.S. food safety and regulatory standards for meat and poultry, while prohibiting restrictions on U.S. use of certain cheese names, such as asiago, feta, or camembert.

USTR officials said the deal will also enhance cooperation on export controls for sensitive items, protect telecommunications infrastructure, and prevent digital trade barriers that could affect U.S. tech companies. Although China is not mentioned in the text, the agreement is designed to strengthen U.S.-Argentina coordination in addressing unfair trade practices from third countries.

What’s Ahead?

The Trump administration will continue monitoring domestic beef supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures necessary to maintain affordable prices for American consumers. While some in the cattle industry remain cautious about importing Argentinian beef, the administration frames the decision as a short-term solution to natural disasters and market disruptions that have tightened domestic beef availability.

UPDATE: Supreme Court Did Not Issue Ruling on Tariffs Case, Decision Still Pending

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 13:45:25 GMT

UPDATE: The U.S. Supreme Court chose not to release its ruling on President Trump’s global tariffs Wednesday. A decision is still pending.

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue one or more rulings on Wednesday in cases already argued before the justices as major legal disputes remain pending, including litigation testing the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

The court is set to release rulings at about 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT). The court does not announce ahead of time which rulings it intends to issue. The court issued one ruling last Friday but did not act in the tariffs case, which was argued on Nov. 5.

The challenge to Trump’s tariffs marks a major test of presidential powers as well as of the court’s willingness to check some of the Republican president’s far-reaching assertions of authority since he returned to office in January 2025. The outcome will impact the global economy.

During arguments in the case, conservative and liberal justices appeared to cast doubt on the legality of the tariffs, which Trump imposed by invoking a 1977 law meant for use during national emergencies. Trump’s administration is appealing rulings by lower courts that he overstepped his authority.

Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on goods imported from individual countries — nearly every foreign trading partner — to address what he called a national emergency related to U.S. trade deficits. He invoked the same law to impose tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, citing the trafficking of the often-abused painkiller fentanyl and illicit drugs into the U.S. as a national emergency.

The challenges to the tariffs in the cases before the Supreme Court were brought by businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 U.S. states, most of them Democratic-governed.

Other cases awaiting rulings include disputes concerning voting rights, religious rights, Trump’s firing of a Federal Trade Commission member, LGBT “conversion therapy” and campaign finance limits, among others.

(Reporting by Andrew Chung; Editing by Will Dunham)

U.S. Drops 40% Tariff on Brazilian Beef in New White House Executive Order

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 01:31:41 GMT

A White House Executive Order issued Thursday modifies the scope of earlier tariffs placed on products from Brazil, effectively removing the additional 40% duty applied to Brazilian beef. The change reverses part of a July trade action that had imposed elevated import duties on multiple categories of Brazilian goods. It’s the latest effort by the Trump administration to bring food prices down for Americans.

Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter, and its product plays a key role in filling U.S. demand, especially in processing beef and manufacturing trim. The tariff increase earlier this year had raised costs for processors and food manufacturers, tightening supply availability and contributing to price pressure.

This latest move follows an Executive Order signed on Friday that modified the scope of the reciprocal tariffs he first announced on April 2, 2025. The Friday EO exempted several agricultural products from tariffs , including fruit, coffee and fertilizer.

What Thursday’s Executive Order Does

According to the new order, certain agricultural imports from Brazil are now exempt from the extra ad valorem tariff that had been layered on top of existing duties. Beef is among the commodities specifically impacted — meaning importers will no longer pay the higher tariff rate that had been in effect since mid-summer.

A complete list of the products that will no longer face the 40% tariff was posted online. That list includes the following beef products:

Fresh or chilled beef
Frozen beef
Edible bovine offal, fresh or chilled
Edible bovine offal, frozen
Salted, dried, smoked or brined beef

Read More: What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?

Why the White House Lifted the Tariff

In the Executive Order, President Donald Trump specifically referenced the call he had with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Oct. 6, which he said addressed concerns in the previous Executive Order that added the additional tariffs.

“These negotiations are ongoing. I also have received additional information and recommendations from various officials who, pursuant to my direction, have been monitoring the circumstances involving the emergency declared in Executive Order 14323,” said Trump in the Executive Order. “For example, in their opinion, certain agricultural imports from Brazil should no longer be subject to the additional ad valorem rate of duty imposed under Executive Order 14323 because, among other relevant considerations, there has been initial progress in negotiations with the Government of Brazil.”

The Executive Order went on to say: “after considering the information and recommendations these officials have provided to me and the status of negotiations with the Government of Brazil, among other things, I have determined that it is necessary and appropriate to modify the scope of products subject to the additional ad valorem rate of duty imposed under Executive Order 14323. Specifically, I have determined that certain agricultural products shall not be subject to the additional ad valorem rate of duty imposed under Executive Order 14323.”

Accordingly, an updated version of Annex I to Executive Order 14323 is attached to this order, which shall be effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on Nov. 13, 2025. In my judgment, these modifications are necessary and appropriate to deal with the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14323.

Background on Tariffs on Brazilian Beef

The Trump administration issued an executive order on July 30, 2025, instituting an additional ad valorem duty of 40 % on many products of Brazilian origin. That 40% duty was in addition to an existing 10% tariff under a separate “reciprocal tariff” measure —bringing the total effective tariff to about 50% on most affected Brazilian goods.

Fear of Trump Dumping Tariffs Caused Selloff in Cattle Earlier This Week

Even the fear of Trump removing the steep tariff on Brazilin beef caused cattle prices to tank earlier this week.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek told Michelle Rook on Monday that concerns of the tariff being lowered was part of the selloff in the cattle futures last week and why the market started off lower Monday.

Kooima said futures stabilized after it was confirmed the 50% tariff on Brazil beef was only lowered 10%.

Looking ahead, Rook reports the other major issue hanging over the cattle market is when the Trump administration will reopen the Mexican border to live cattle import. Some reports say the Trump administration is pushing for that to happen in January.

Read More: Did the Administration’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?

White House Drops Reciprocal Tariffs on Fertilizer, Other Ag Products Not Produced in the U.S.

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 23:50:07 GMT

President Trump signed an Executive Order Friday afternoon that modifies the scope of the reciprocal tariffs he first announced on April 2, 2025. The Executive Order now exempts several agricultural products from tariffs, including fruit, coffee and fertilizer.

In a fact sheet released Nov. 14, 2025, the administration says President Trump has determined that “certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, such as certain food not grown in the United States.”

This is good news for farmers, as certain qualifying agricultural products will no longer be subject to those tariffs, including fertilizer. However, the announcement could open the door for more beef imports, as the move also gets rid of reciprocal tariffs on beef.

The document goes on to spell out examples of products that are now exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. According to the fact sheet, “The President has thus determined that certain agricultural products shall no longer be subject to the reciprocal tariffs.”

Some of these products include:

coffee and tea
tropical fruits and fruit juices
cocoa and spices
bananas, oranges and tomatoes
beef
additional fertilizers (some fertilizers have never been subject to the reciprocal tariffs).

“I have received additional information and recommendations from various officials who, pursuant to my direction, have been monitoring the circumstances involving the emergency declared in Executive Order 14257,” stated the Executive Order. “After considering the information and recommendations these officials have provided to me, the status of negotiations with various trading partners, current domestic demand for certain products, and current domestic capacity to produce certain products, among other things, I have determined that it is necessary and appropriate to further modify the scope of products subject to the reciprocal tariff imposed under Executive Order 14257, as amended.”

President Defends Tariff Strategy, Says It’s Working

In the fact sheet, the White House went on to defend the reciprocal tariffs.

“In less than one year into his second term, President Trump has strengthened the international economic position of the United States by delivering a series of historic wins for the American people,” the fact sheet states.

The White House says through these tariffs, “President Trump is bringing manufacturing jobs back to America, revitalizing communities, and strengthening supply chains.The Administration will continue to use all available tools to protect our national security, advance our economic interests, and uphold a system of trade based in fairness and reciprocity.”

You can read the entire fact sheet here.

Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 23:05:29 GMT

The White House announced a sweeping new U.S.–China trade agreement late last week that includes substantial commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. agricultural products — marking what officials call a “breakthrough” in restoring and expanding trade flows between the two countries.

According to the White House fact sheet , China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The deal also restores trade in sorghum, hardwood logs, and a range of other commodities while lifting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, dairy, wheat, corn, cotton, and other farm products.

Yet, with mixed messages from the White House and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, there was some confusion on whether China would purchase an additional 12 million metric tons of soybeans, of if it was 12 million total.

As AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick pointed out, the U.S. already sold China 5.9 million metric tons earlier this year, before the trade war broke out. Comments from Bessent made it sound like China would be 12 million metric ton total, which would have equated to only buy an additional 6.1 million metric tons yet this year.

However, the White House Fact Sheet released over the weekend cleared the air, saying, “China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs.”

What This Means for U.S. Farmers

For U.S. row-crop producers and livestock farmers alike, the agreement could spell renewed demand from one of the world’s largest agricultural importers. The 25 MMT annual soybean commitment alone represents a major market opportunity for U.S. producers, especially in key states such as Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota — and for U.S. sorghum growers in the High Plains. The lifting of tariffs on beef, pork and dairy also opens additional channels for livestock- and dairy-product exporters.

At Kansas State University, Dr. Allen Featherstone, head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, calls the deal an encouraging sign for U.S. farmers — especially after years of market turbulence.

“It certainly is a bright spot and big news,” Featherstone says. “Traditionally, China has been buying between 25 and 34 million metric tons. So certainly, the 25 million for the next three years will put that in the range of what historically has been done. The 12 million between now and January certainly is a heavy lift but also a big buy.”

Timing And The Broader Picture

According to the White House, the buys start immediately: 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and then on into each of the next three years. The scope of the deal also signals more than agriculture: China has agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods announced since March 4, 2025 and to remove its “unreliable entity” and end-user listing measures.

Featherstone says that timing matters, since late fall and early winter are when China typically turns to U.S. soybeans before switching to Brazil in February and March.

“Based on current prices, it’s about a $4.5 billion deal between now and January,” he explains. “If you look at where we are the next three years, it’s about a $10 billion deal — and that’s good news.”

He points out that soybeans remain the No. 1 U.S. export to China, making the commodity a central part of trade negotiations.

“For the last three years, soybeans are the number one import in China from the U.S.,” Featherstone says. “As they’re trying to get leverage over the U.S., the soybean market is one of the places where they can have leverage.”

The Next Hurdle? Tracking the Purchases Amid a Government Shutdown

While the commitments are substantial, Featherstone cautions that verifying China’s purchases will be more difficult due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export reporting.

“Tracking will be important,” he says. “Last week they purchased three vessels — about 180,000 metric tons. There are sources besides the government, but certainly not having the government data is a problem.”

Without weekly USDA export reports, private-sector analysts are relying on commercial shipping data and trade wire confirmations to track shipments. Economists warn that these unofficial estimates often vary widely, adding uncertainty to market reactions.

Opportunities and Caveats

Agribusiness groups, U.S. exporters and farm economists will be tracking how the commitments translate into actual purchases and shipping logistics. The upside is clear: large volume commitments from China boost U.S. export potential, may help stabilize or raise soybean, sorghum and other commodity prices, and can provide relief to ag sectors hard-hit by prior trade disruptions.

But there are caution flags too. Commitments do not always guarantee immediate shipments. Market conditions, logistics, currency movements, and China’s domestic production may influence actual demand and timing.

Exporters will want to monitor how quickly China follows through, whether the buys are genuinely incremental (vs. simply re-directing existing purchases) and how U.S. logistics chain handles increased volumes.

How This Will Impact Farmers and Ranchers in the Months Ahead

According to the White House fact sheet, here’s how the trade and economic deal, reached between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, China committed to buying large amounts of soybeans, but China also said it would start purchasing sorghum again. On the livestock front, tariffs were suspended on beef, pork, dairy and more.

So, what should farmers and ranchers watch in the months ahead?

Soybeans: Given the huge volume — 12 MMT in 2025, then 25 MMT annually — soybean exporters will want to watch new crop availability, global competition (e.g., Brazil, Argentina) and U.S. export origination points.
Sorghum & hardwood logs: These categories were specifically called out for resumption of trade, suggesting new or renewed market access in China.
Livestock, dairy & other ag products: With tariffs suspended on beef, pork, dairy, and aquatic products, U.S. meat and dairy exporters may gain longer-term access to Chinese markets.
Tariff & non-tariff measures: The removal of retaliatory tariffs and other counters means fewer barriers for U.S. ag exports, but exporters should still watch for regulatory or sanitary measures that often influence trade.
Supply chain & logistics readiness: Meeting large volume commitments will test U.S. export capacity, shipping, port access and coordination between exporters and farmers.

Looking Ahead

The China-U.S. deal marks a potentially significant turning point for U.S. agricultural exports in 2025: large-scale Chinese commitments, tariff relief, and expanded access could open new markets and relieve pressure in certain ag sectors.

But the real story will be how fast, how reliably, and how fully China follows through with purchases — and how U.S. producers, exporters, and logistics systems respond.

Beef Producers React to USDA's Plan to Fortify Industry and Trump's Social Media Comments

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 21:22:53 GMT

In an effort to strengthen the American beef industry and reinforce and prioritize the rancher’s critical role in national security, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and other cabinet members announced a suite of actions on Wednesday.

Since 2017, the U.S. has lost over 17% of family farms — more than 100,000 operations over the last decade. The national herd is at a 75-year low while consumer demand for beef has grown 9% over the past decade. Because increasing the size of the domestic herd takes time, USDA says it is investing now to make these markets less volatile for ranchers over the long term and more affordable for consumers.

“America’s food supply chain is a national security priority for the Trump Administration. We are committed to ensuring the American people have an affordable source of protein and that America’s ranchers have a strong economic environment where they can continue to operate for generations to come,” Rollins says in a press release . “At USDA we are protecting our beef industry and incentivizing new ranchers to take up the noble vocation of ranching. Today, USDA will immediately expedite deregulatory reforms, boost processing capacity, including getting more locally raised beef into schools, and working across the government to fix longstanding common-sense barriers for ranchers like outdated grazing restrictions.”

The plan includes three coordinated priorities:

Protecting and improving the business of ranching
- Strengthening the foundation of U.S. cattle production through endangered species reforms, enhanced disaster relief, increased grazing access (approximately 5 million acres), increased access to capital, and affordable risk management tools.
Expanding processing, consumer transparency and market access.
- Lowering long-term costs by cutting inspection costs by up to 75% for small processors, increasing marketing options for consumers with Product of USA labeling and ensuring consumers have clear, truthful information about American beef.
Building demand alongside domestic supply
- Growing the domestic herd while boosting domestic and international demand so that ranchers are not trapped in the boom/bust cycle that has defined past cattle markets. This strategy includes boosting long-term demand to reduce prices for consumers while growing markets for ranchers through significant farm-to-school grans and protein-focused dietary guidelines.

The plan is available through the USDA website.

Trump Takes to Social on Beef

President Donald Trump shared his perspective on beef industry success on X.

“The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% tariff on Brazil,” Trump posted.

Following the post, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) made a post on Facebook in response and also released a statement on the president’s steps to undercut U.S. cattle producers:

“In a misguided effort to lower the price of beef in grocery stores, President Trump said he plans to increase the volume of beef being imported from Argentina. Efforts to manipulate markets only risk damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.”

“The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and its members cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinian beef in an attempt to influence prices,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “It is imperative that President Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins let the cattle markets work.”

”The U.S. already faces a deep trade imbalance with Argentina, one that is made worse by the President’s plan. During the past five years, Argentina has shipped beef valued at more than $800 million to the U.S., while purchasing only $7 million of U.S. beef. Furthermore, Argentina is a nation with a long history of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and USDA has not completed the necessary steps to ensure Argentina can guarantee the safety of the products being shipped here, further endangering America’s cattle herd.

“If President Trump is truly an ally of America’s cattle producers, we call on him to abandon this effort to manipulate markets and focus instead on the promised New World Screwworm facilities in Texas; making additional investments that protect the domestic cattle herd from foreign animal diseases such as FMD; and addressing regulatory burdens, such as delisting of the gray wolf and addressing the scourge of black vultures,” Woodall said, concluding the statement.

Your Next Read: Is Argentina Beef the Answer to Lowering Beef Prices?

Cattle Hit New Highs Despite Tanking Equities: Grains Fall on Tariff Uncertainty

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 14:58:35 GMT

Tuesday morning cattle and hogs are mostly higher, grains are sharply lower.

Cattle Make New Highs Despite Lower Stock Market

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are back into new contract and all-time highs after showing considerable resilience last week.

He says the market shook off a negative USDA Cattle on Feed report and news of a human case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Maryland.

On Tuesday the market is also holding up in the face of a selloff in the equity markets tied to tariff uncertainty.

However, a bigger selloff in the S&P will be watched to see if it can temper the fund buying interest in the cattle market.

Cash Market Strong but Converging

Cash trade was strong again last week with the South trading mostly $242, up $2 from the previous week and the North trading mostly $245 live, which was steady.

However, he says the South is starting to converge with the North due to the tight supplies in states like Texas which have seen several months of lower placements in feedlots, some of it tied to the border closure to Mexican feeder imports.

This week Kooima thinks the cash trade will again be steady to higher.

Cash Feeders on Fire

Helping to hold up the live and feeder cattle futures has been the blazing hot cash feeder market.

Tight supplies have pushed calf and feeder cattle prices into record territory with the most recent feeder cattle cash index at a record $365.23, up $4.55.

Choice Boxed Beef Tops $415

Choice boxed beef was up another $1.00 on Friday and closed at $415.41 but can it keep moving higher?

Kooima is doubtful it can work against the weaker seasonals in September.

Grain Markets Sharply Lower on Tariff Uncertainty

Grain futures are trading sharply lower on Tuesday on profit taking after a nice rally on Friday but mostly due to the risk off tone to the outside markets tied to tariff uncertainty.

The Federal Appeals Court ruled most of the Trump tariffs are illegal and must be rescinded.

While tariffs will stay in place until October 14 this creates general uncertainty in the market.

Plus, there is also concern about a looming government shutdown if Congress can’t get a budget extension passed.

Lean Hog Futures See Fund Buying

Lean hog futures ended higher last week and hit one month highs i the October contract and that is attracting additional fund buying on Tuesday morning.

Will the market be able to continue to move higher?

Kooima says spillover strength from the cattle market has sponsored the rally but the discount futures are holding is also helping out.

'A Bit of Relief' Follows Japan Trade and Investment Agreement

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 19:49:30 GMT

Japan’s lead tariff negotiator was in Washington, D.C. this past week seeking to finalize details of the U.S.-Japan Trade and Investment Agreement that was recently announced by the White House .

“I think there was a bit of relief in the Japanese trade, having met with several importer distributors and member exporters while I was there,” says U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom who was in Tokyo when the agreement was announced. “I think the fact that a deal had been done on autos, which is obviously one of the big sticking points with Japan, and laid to rest any concerns there might have been on possible retaliation from the Japanese side, should a deal not have been reached.”

U.S. red meat exports to Japan were put on a level playing field with other competing nations under the 2020 U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, signed during the first Trump administration, Halstrom notes.

“Most pork is imported at zero tariff,” Halstrom says. “While Japan’s beef tariff is currently the highest of any major import market at 21.6%, it is level with other suppliers and is scheduled to phase to 9% by 2033.”

He says the 2020 agreement put the U.S. on a level playing field, even though U.S. duties are higher than some other countries.

“The fact that we got this deal done, at least at the minimum, maintains that level playing field,” Halstrom adds. “I think that’s important to remember, because it wasn’t that long ago where we were at a severe disadvantage tariff wise.”

Cattle Try to Recover With Higher Cash: Grains Digest Tariffs, Weather

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 14:55:38 GMT

Cattle and hog futures opened firm Friday then turned mixed, grains are mixed to lower.

Cattle Futures Try to Recover

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are trying to recover after an ugly day Thursday that ended with bearish reversals, in fact key reversals in feeder cattle.

He chalks it to end of the month profit taking and the fact the market was overdue for a correction after a string of days where futures continued to make new contract and record highs.

However, the push lower was on light volume and the cattle futures have negated several key reversals in their overall historical bull run, so there’s no indication this is the top he says.

Cash Cattle Trade Higher

Even with the plunge in futures Varilek says the packers came out looking for cattle and pushed cash trade higher on Thursday with sales from $242 to $245 in the North and $235 in the South.

He says some of the cattle will be picked up as early as Monday, a good indication of strong demand.

Feedlots and farmer feeders have been willing sellers as they have close outs in the $1000 per head range.

With the discount the futures are holding to the cash Varilek is hopeful that will help negate the futures crash on Thursday.

Outside Markets and Tariff News a Headwind for Cattle and All Ag Markets

Cattle might have had an easier time recovering on Friday morning without all of the negative tariffs news and the risk off selling that is creating in the stock market.

However, the tariff rate on Brazilian beef imports will reach nearly 76% if the additional 50% increase goes into effect in less than a week.

Varilek says Brazil is the top importer of beef into the U.S. so that could further tighten supplies and support the market.

Lean Hogs Reverse Higher Opening

Lean hog futures were higher on the opening with cattle and then sold off with the outside market weakness.

The market also hit resistance on the charts that has held back futures, despite tight numbers and disease problems.

Varilek says, “Demand is holding the market back because even though it is a cheaper protein that beef consumers aren’t trading down to that protein. Plus, its not being featured by the fast food or restaurant sectors.”

Corn and Soybeans Lower in July

Corn and soybeans posted an ugly lower month in July with December corn down nearly 12 cents and November soybeans down 38 cents.

Varilek says that trend may continue in August with favorable weather, big crops and continued tariff uncertainty.

Export demand has failed to rally the corn market with additional flash sales of new crop corn on Friday totaling 13.8 million bushels to unknown destinations.

Tariff Fears Hurt Grains

President Trump announced new base tariffs of 10% to 41% on countries that had not negotiated trade frameworks by the Aug. 1 tariff deadline.

Mexico negotiated a 90-day extension, but Canadian tariffs were raised to 35%. However, ag exports to both countries are exempted under USMCA.

China’s tariff deadline is Aug. 12 and President Trump has not decided if he will extend the tariff delay for another 90-days as agree upon by trade negotiators earlier this week in Stockholm.

Industry Hopeful for U.S.- Indonesia Trade Deal to Expand Red Meat Markets

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 20:58:53 GMT

With the announcement of the U.S. and Indonesian framework for a trade agreement, more access for U.S. beef and pork could become a reality.

U.S. Meat Export Federation Vice President of Economic Analysis Erin Borror says the U.S. has had limited access to Indonesia. While tariffs are low at 5%, significant non-tariff trade barriers that have also been in place. These include import licensing regime, the commodity balance and facility registration, or plant-by-plant approvals for U.S. beef.

“Those kind of three pillars of market access barriers are how Indonesia has really managed imports for decades at this point,” Borror says.

Removing all non-tariff barriers would open the doors for beef demand in Indonesia.

“The opportunity there is $250 million annually,” Borror says. “That’s a short run estimate. If we remain out of that China market, having Indonesia compete on these short plates, short ribs, chuck short ribs, a number of the offal items, would be tremendous.”

In addition, U.S. pork faces similar trade barriers in Indonesia, a country with 30 million non-Muslims who have shown a growing demand for U.S. pork. Exporters and importers have seen that barrier in action so far this year.

“Trying to manage those pork imports through its variety of commodity balance and import licensing regimes, we’ve already had a doubling in our volumes to Indonesia on the pork side, albeit from a small base, but you see that strong growth,” Borror adds. “African Swine Fever remains rampant kind of in the region.”

She sees potential as Indonesian customers keep asking for more U.S. pork.

Big Wins for Beef Exports: What It Means for the Industry

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 21:25:05 GMT

Australia has moved to reduce restrictions on U.S. beef imports as an attempt to smooth trade talks with the Trump administration and avoid tariffs. The U.S. beef industry has had several trade wins this week with frameworks also announced with top beef export markets like Japan and South Korea.

The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) took effect in 2005 and was intended to allow U.S. beef to be sold in Australia. During the past 20 years, Australia has used countless tactics to delay implementation of the agreement and prevent any shipments of fresh or frozen U.S. beef from entering Australia.

Kent Bacus, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association executive director of government affairs, says during the same 20-year period, “They’ve been able to ship roughly $29 billion worth of beef to our market, but because of a lot of bureaucratic red tape and all in the name of biosecurity Australia has kept us out.”

🇺🇸👍 Another trade win for American beef industry@POTUS has secured greater ag market access to Australia for U.S. beef producers. Statement from @SecRollins ➡️ https://t.co/OtSdn8smu6 pic.twitter.com/lxAkAqu40t
— Dept. of Agriculture (@USDA) July 24, 2025

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins issued a statement congratulating President Donald Trump on the Australia announcement.

“American farmers and ranchers produce the safest, healthiest beef in the world. It’s absurd that non-scientific trade barriers prevented our beef from being sold to consumers in Australia for the last 20 years,” she says.

NCBA President and Nebraska Cattleman Buck Wehrbein adds, “NCBA has spent decades working to correct this trade imbalance, and we are proud to have a president who is willing to fight for American farmers and ranchers, expand export markets and fix unfair trade agreements across the world.”

With the announcement, Australia has approved importation of U.S. fresh and frozen beef of all ages, allowing the U.S. to ship product very soon.

“This is a big win for us,” Bacus says.

He explains this paves the way for complementary trade and growth as Australia is currently not a big market for U.S. beef. It is an opportunity for the U.S. to develop a consumer base in Australia for higher end cuts.

Japan Framework Released

Bacus says the new framework with Japan , also extends gains from the existing Free Trade Agreement and he hopes the president is eventually able to negotiate the tariff on U.S. beef down to zero.

“That tariff is phasing down to 9%, we’re about halfway there, but we really need to kind of push that along because Japanese consumers want our product,” he says.

Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO, says, “USMEF greatly appreciates the Trump administration’s agreement with Japan, reassuring and expanding opportunities in the No. 2 export destination for U.S. beef and pork.

“In President Trump’s first term, the critical U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement was reached, returning U.S. red meat to a level playing field in Japan and restoring its position as an extremely reliable market,” Halstrom says. “According to the information released by the White House, the new agreement focuses on reinforcing the long-term economic partnership between the U.S. and Japan, which for decades has delivered tremendous benefits for the U.S. livestock and meat industries and for Japanese consumers, importers and customers.”

Other Frameworks and Opportunities

South Korea and the U.S. reaffirmed their commitment to reach a trade agreement ahead of the Aug. 1 U.S.-imposed deadline when U.S. tariffs are set to rise.

South Korea’s framework would also expand the FTA struck in 2012. Bacus says they’re pushing to get BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) beef restrictions still in place since the U.S. regained market access in 2008 removed.

“For Korea, all we asked was for consultations to remove that 30-month restriction that we have due to BSE,” he says. “We know that is a sensitive issue for Korea, but quite honestly, there’s no scientific justification for keeping us out. And we have developed a lot of trust with Korean consumers.”

Since the FTA in 2012, Korea has become the largest export market for U.S. beef with sales of more than $2 billion annually.

Bacus also mentioned progress is being made with Indonesia and other Asian Pacific countries. He appreciates Trump’s push to get the U.S. back to the negotiating table.

“For the last four years, the Biden administration had stepped away from that. We were not talking about market access. We weren’t talking about a lot of significant trade issues,” he says. “We were able to get a couple of technical things resolved, but overall, there weren’t real benefits being delivered for agriculture, and that has shifted. And other countries know that other countries are looking to avoid this Aug. 1 deadline for retaliation. This presents a good opportunity for us to basically make up for a lot of lost time.”

China Hopes Continue

Bacus says they are closely watching next week’s talks between the U.S. and China.

The third round of discussions is set to take place in Stockholm and while it isn’t likely to result in a deal, it is an important step in the process.

He emphasizes that China did not fulfill their purchase obligations under the Phase One deal and has also failed to renew export certifications for 394 U.S. beef plants, which is effectively keeping the U.S. out of the Chinese market.

“China could be a good market, but we cannot put all of our eggs in one basket,” he summarizes. “We need to really build demand around the world and build relationships with trusted partners, starting with our allies. We’re hopeful that we can resolve issues with China, but we have to be realistic in the fact that China will play these games from time to time, and we need access to markets we can trust, that are dependable and that are going to live up to their word.”

Possible 50% Tariff on Brazil Also a Win

President Trump has also threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, which would include beef.

Bacus says NCBA would like Brazil’s market access to be fully stripped due to concerns regarding Foot and Mouth Disease but this move would effectively help level the playing field.

“In the last five years, we’ve only been able to export $21 million worth of U.S. beef to Brazil,” he says. “Meanwhile, they’ve sold about $4.5 billion worth of beef into this market. A lot of that is lean trim, we fully understand, but you’ve got to look at that significant imbalance and look at the cause of that, and it’s these unfair trade practices.”

He adds Brazil shouldn’t have access to the U.S. until it can demonstrate it has an equivalent level of food safety and animal health.

President Trump Threatens New Round of Tariffs Over the Weekend: Here’s the Latest

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 13:39:36 GMT

U.S. commodity markets were down to start the week in Sunday night trade as the markets digested the latest tariff announcement by President Donald Trump. On Saturday, President Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1. The announcement came after a string of new tariff threats last week, as the Trump administration’s deadline for trade deals came due.

On Monday, President Trump continued with tariff talk, saying he would implement “severe tariffs” on Russia unless a peace deal is reached with Ukraine within 50 days.

He provided few details on how they would be implemented but described them as 100% secondary tariffs, meaning they would target Russia’s trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy.

The latest tariff threats weren’t good news for farmers looking to price fertilizer for fall, as StoneX Group says Russia is the United States’ top destination for both urea and UAN imports. StoneX points out Russia’s market chair has “grown substantially in recent years.”

Monday’s news follows a week where many anticipated trade deals. Instead, President Trump made a series of announcements with new tariffs. The new tariffs on Mexico and the European Union, which Trump announced Saturday, capped off a week of sweeping tariff threats.

Earlier in the week, Trump warned of a possible:

50% tariff on all copper imports
50% tariff on all goods from Brazil
35% tariff on Canadian goods
25% tariff on goods from Japan
25% tariff on imports from South Korea
200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals

The positive side of the announcements is the Trump administration says any products covered under the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (UMCA) won’t face the new tariffs.

President Trump also sent letters to both Japan and South Korea last week, saying their goods will be taxed at 25% starting August 1st.

The President posted the two letters he sent to those countries’ leaders on his Truth Social site. In the letter to South Korea, he stated when it comes to Korea’s tariff and non-tariff polices and trade barriers, the relationship between the two countries has been far from reciprocal. He added the 25% tariff was far less than what he says is needed to eliminate a trade deficit disparity.

The letter to Japan added if Japanese companies decide to build or manufacture a product within the U.S., there will be no tariffs. Japanese and U.S. negotiators have been working for several weeks to try and reach a deal.

Lack of Progress Impacts Commodity Prices
The lack of trade announcements last week was just one factor that caused corn prices to tank, according to AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett. While rain in the upper Corn Belt was also bearish for the markets, little to no movement on trade is also pressuring prices.

“We had no trade announcements, and then we continued to talk about tariffs. The unfortunate reality right now is it appears the administration is playing the long game, trying to get people to come to the table with better trade deals than what we currently have seen. But it certainly isn’t doing any favors for the corn market,” Bennett said on U.S. Farm Report this weekend. “I think something like a big trade agreement certainly could tilt the tide more in the favor of the corn market moving higher. Until you get that, with weather being as good as what it is, there’s nothing there.”

It’s not all bearish, though. Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says the 50% tariff on Brazil is actually bullish for beef.

“We already have a shortage of protein in America with the cattle herd being shrinking over recent years because of lingering drought in the western half of the country, and supplies are tight. We’re just getting to the point of trying to rebuild those supplies, which holding back heifers, tightens up the supply of meat even more. We’re feeding to record-high carcass weights to try to fill the void. We’re increasing imports to record levels. Brazil is the primary supplier of those imports: 27% of our imports come from Brazil in the first five months of the year, according to the latest data we have available, that’s 666 million pounds. That’s 4% of consumption,” Suderman says.

If you think 4% doesn’t sound like a big deal, Suderman says it is - especially considering meat demand in the U.S. has turned out to be inelastic.

“We’ve been shifting from a starch-based diet more heavily toward protein-based. And as the prices go up, we’re actually increasing demand for beef and the other proteins - but we don’t have the supply of it. I think that could be a real problem going forward for the meat industry and the meat supply. We will have to find somewhere else to get that meat,” Suderman says.

Are Trade Deals Close?

While President Trump initially stated he had reached trade agreements with 200 countries, only a few have been officially announced. These include deals with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam, however. Negotiations with other countries are ongoing, with the administration extending the deadline for tariff-related negotiations to August 1.

The European Union says it was working on sealing a trade deal with the U.S. by the end of this month, and the European Commission president says the EU was working closely with the Trump administration to reach a deal.

Cattle See Profit Taking After Record Highs: Corn Tries to Bounce

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 14:53:58 GMT

Cattle and hogs are lower early Monday, with corn higher and soybeans lower.

Cattle Due for a Correction

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are seeing some routine profit taking after hitting all-time and record highs again on Friday.

For the week August live cattle were up $8.15 and August feeder cattle were up nearly $16, so the markets are overbought and due for a correction he says.

Cash Cattle Are King!

The futures rally was fueled in part by higher than expected cash trade with Northern live sales at $238 to $240 and dressed prices mostly $380, up $10. Southern business was mostly $228-$230, up $4 to $6.

So, will cash trade be higher again this week?

Kooima says it’s possible with the extremely tight supplies and the leverage the feedlots and producers have, but the concern is boxed beef has started to break.

Choice boxed beef was down around $6 on Friday and is $18 off the highs and that puts packer margins back in the red and may cause them to slow the kill again this week.

Border Closure to Mexican Cattle Continues to Support Feeders

The feeder market has been red hot due to the lack of supply and that didn’t get any better with the news of the Southern border being closed to Mexican imports once again.

Hogs Follow Lower Cash and Cutouts, Tariff Uncertainty

Lean hog futures are under pressure with announced tariffs over the weekend of 30% on the EU and Mexico by Aug. 1. So far the EU is holding off on retaliation to try to work out a deal.

While most U.S. ag products are excluded due to USMCA compliance the heavily export dependent hog market doesn’t like the tariff uncertainty.

Cash trade was also lower on Friday by $5.74 on the National Direct hogs and cutouts were down another $.68.

So Kooima thinks the path of least resistance is lower.

Grains Mixed as Corn Tries to Bounce Off Contract Lows

Corn futures made new contract lows in both old and new crop overnight and have since bounced.

Most of that is technical as the funds are covering short positions with a bounce off chart support in an oversold market.

However, Kooima says there is no change in the weather and so the market may have a difficult time holding any gains with ideas of bigger yields overwhelming the trade.

Soybeans gave up early strength and are trading lower on spreads and with continued tariff concerns casting a shadow on demand.

Cattle Recover With Higher Cash: Grains Fall on CA Tariff News and Weather

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 14:49:12 GMT

Cattle futures are higher early Friday, as well as hogs. Grains are under pressure.

Nearby Live Cattle Negate Key Reversal With Higher Cash

Live and feeder cattle futures opened lower on Friday but quickly turned higher with strong cash news according to Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says cash bids are surfacing on Friday morning at $238 to $240 in the North.

Some sales were reported in the North late Thursday as high as $380 dressed to a regional and a handful of sales at $370 to $372 dressed and $235 live. In the South a few sales were reported at $225.

(At midday Friday, light volume in developing in the North at $238-$240 live, dressed at $380, $10 higher than last week’s weighted average in Nebraska. Southern live deals range $228 to $230, $4 to $6 higher.)

Live cattle futures had a disappointing close on Thursday making record highs on bullish news and then closing with nearby contracts lower putting in bearish key reversals.

It was a classic buy the rumor sell the fact trade says Varilek as the markets worked in bullish news including President Trump proposing a 50% tariff on Brazil imports, including beef.

Plus, USDA announced Wednesday evening the Southern border was once closing again to Mexican cattle imports due to concerns regarding New World Screwworm (NWS).

What Happens if the U.S. Gets New World Screwworm?

Currently there is no indication of when the border will reopen to Mexican cattle imports after a case of (NWS) was found just 370 miles from the U.S. border.

However, it may be inevitable that the pest gets into the U.S.

So how does the market react with a case if detected?

Varilek says it will initially be negative because the markets have never had to trade it before and there will be concerns that consumer demand may fall since this is a flesh eating pest that leave horrific images.

However, he says once that wears off the pest could be positive for the cattle market because it will again tighten the already historically cattle numbers.

“Producers needs to be prepared and make sure they are putting on hedges to protect their operation,” he says.

Lean Hogs Back Higher

Lean hog futures were also higher early Friday in tandem with cattle, but still seeing buying by funds on the breaks and the Lean Hog Index was also slightly higher reversing its lower trend.

Varilek thinks the market is being supported by disease and supplies issues and points to some $95 feeder pig prices as evidence of that.

Funds continue to be record long in the lean hogs and so far have defended that position on breaks.

Grains See Risk Off Selling From Weather and Canadian Tariff News

Grains and outside markets are trading risk off as President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, effective Aug. 1. An exclusion for goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade was expected to stay in place.

However, Varilek says it still creates uncertainty in the markets and is a signal of rising tensions between the neighbors.

Weather has also been ideal and even dry areas of Northern Illinois received some rain over night with more in the forecast, which may also be pressuring grains ahead of the WASDE Report at 11:00 am.

Varilek doesn’t think the report will provide much meaningful news and even if it did it would not be traded long with the weather forecast so perfect for the Corn Belt and promoting ideas of a bumper crop.

Trade Dominance or Trade Domino? Trump Announces Trade Deal with Vietnam

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 19:48:15 GMT

Less than a week before the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on many reciprocal tariffs with several countries is set to expire, President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam on Wednesday. The deal, according to Trump, allows the U.S. “total access” to Vietnam’s markets with a zero tariff on U.S. products exported to Vietnam.

A deal with Vietnam could benefit U.S. commodities that face higher tariffs, including fruits, nuts, pork and beef exports.

The president made the announcement on his Truth Social site, saying Vietnam will pay the U.S. a 20% tariff on any goods sent into the U.S. and a 40% tariff on any goods that originate in another country and then are transferred to Vietnam before coming to the U.S.

🚨 pic.twitter.com/i35oMvbEvW
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 2, 2025

When trade talks started with Vietnam last month, Vietnamese officials had pledged to boost purchases of American goods, including farm products and energy. However, no specific trade volumes were announced with the trade deal.

What’s the potential for agriculture? Dan Basse, founder and president of AgResource Company, says this could help gain greater access for fruits, nuts and horticulture products, which have tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%, versus corn, soybeans and soybean meal.

“In the case of corn and soybeans and meal and wheat, we’re talking about tariffs today that are 1% to 2%, that’ll go to zero, so it’s something, don’t get me wrong, it’s 5¢ or 10¢ in a bushel of corn, maybe 7¢ to 12¢ on beans, but it is not the panacea that’s going to get a lot of Vietnamese demand going forward,” Basse says.

The trade deal came as a bit of a surprise on Wednesday. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that while the focus of the administration is getting the One Big Beautiful Bill across the finish line this week, that focus shifts back to trade next week. Bessent warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a deadline approaches.

Is this trade deal the start of a domino of trade deals that could fall ahead of next week’s deadline? It’s possible, but Stand Grain’s Joe Vaclavik says many more are needed to shift the sentiment in the commodity market to a bullish tone.

“Get a trade deal with China that mirrors Phase One, that includes large purchase agreements, then it’s a game changer,” Vaclavik says. “But anything less than that, as of right now, I don’t think is going be a market mover or a game changer from a supply and demand standpoint.”

Vaclavik agrees with Basse, in that Vietnam alone isn’t a huge demand story for corn and soybeans.

“I think you’re going to see a lot of these announcements like with Vietnam where it sounds great, but Vietnam consumed 16 million metric tons of corn last year. That’s not enough to really put them on the map as something that’s going to move the market. You need a China, a country who consumes 300 million metric tons of corn per year to come in and agree to agree and also agree to buy. And that’s how you move the needle.”

Push for More Protein?

Protein exports are also an area of opportunity. U.S. dairy exports have shown strong growth into Vietnam, with increases in nonfat dry milk powder, whey, and lactose.

As for meat exports, figures from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) show shipments to Vietnam in 2024 included:

5,052 metric tons of beef and beef variety meat valued at $43 million
and 4,662 metric tons of pork and variety meat with a value of $10 million.

The U.S. current ranks fifth in top exporters to Vietnam, but it’s key to note the U.S. is the largest trading partner with Vietnam that does not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). With talks of tariff reductions, it could hep make U.S. pork more competitively priced compared to big competitors like Brazil, the European Union and Canada. Those countries currently have duty-free access to Vietnam.

The current tariff rates vary by product, including:

Chilled beef carcass/ ½ carcass: 30%
Chilled beef bone-in: 20%
Chilled beef boneless: 14%,
Frozen beef bone-in/frozen carcass 20%
Frozen boneless beef: 14%
Chilled pork: 22%
Frozen pork: 10%
Offal: 8%.

Fact sheet on meat exports to Vietnam

(USMEF )

Vietnam’s Growing Population

Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook visited Vietnam earlier this year and saw firsthand the potential growth. Vietnam has a 100 million people and a growing middle class looking to add protein to their diet. With limited soybean crushing capacity, the country currently depends on soybean meal imports for their livestock and aquaculture feed needs.

She reports the country’s soy processing industry is small with only four plants, which import 2 million tons of soybeans annually, including from the U.S. According to Rook’s reporting, that could be an area where soybean exports could grow, fueling Vietnam’s growing aquaculture and livestock production.

You can read and watch Rook’s in-depth reporting here .

Sharp Drop in Beef and Pork Exports to China Causes April Meat Exports to Take a Hit

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 17:51:07 GMT

The ongoing trade dispute with China reportedly made progress this week. In what marked the first call since the trade conflict began in February, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he held an hour-and-a-half conversation with President Xi Jinping, saying the conversation “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries”.

An in-person meeting between trade and economic leaders of both countries is on the calendar next. But as the negotiations play out, export demand is starting to take a hit, especially when tariffs hit their peak in April.

U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) says due in part to a sharp decline in shipments to China, April exports of U.S. beef and pork came in lower than a year ago. USMEF says a major headwind that showed up in the April numbers is China’s retaliatory duties on both beef and pork from the U.S.

But that’s not the only hurdle. Beef exports into China are also waiting for China to renew establishment registrations for U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities, the majority of which expired in mid-March. This is a non-tariff trade barrier that is hurting beef exports.

According to USDA data, USMEF says April beef exports were 10% lower than April 2024. Value also fell, down 8% to $824.5 million. The biggest decline, by far, is China. Beef exports to China dropped 70% — that makes sense when you consider China’s total duties on U.S. beef peaked at 147% in April. At the same time, the fact that China hasn’t re-established U.S. plant registrations also caused exports to fall.

Overall, beef exports to Mexico also came in lower. However, USMEF says that was partially offset by larger exports to South Korea, Japan and Central and South America.

(USDA)

Pork exports fell 15% compared to a year prior, which is the lowest in 10 months. The value fell to 675.3 million, representing a 13% decline. USMEF says exports to China, which are mainly pork variety meats, dropped 35% during that time. Pork also faced a high tariff during April, peaking at 172%. But pork exports also slipped to Mexico, Japan and Canada — with exports to Canada down 45%.

The bright spots for U.S. pork exports in April were Colombia and Central Mexico — which are hitting a record pace.

U.S. Farm Report spoke to USMEF Dan Halstrom just hours after President Trump posted a more optimistic view of the relationship with China on social media. He says resolving issues with China will only fuel the strong start to the year.

(USDA)

“There’s no doubt outside of China, the rest of the business during the first part of this year and coming off records from last year is fantastic — record breaking in terms of demand,” Halstrom says. “China’s been the X factor. And through the first three months of this year before the disruption, things look pretty good. The April meat export stats just came out, and what’s down is China. We knew that would happen in April. So, this news couldn’t be more timely. We have to get people to the table. This was a necessary first step. And it’s great news the A-Team is going to get engaged and hopefully bring this back around to get some stability back into the market.”

The “A-team” Halstrom is referring to is key members from Trump’s cabinet. That includes treasury secretary Scott Bessent, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer.

“We need some sort of an agreement because there’s so many things going on. It’s not only tariff related,” Halstrom says. “In fact, on the beef side, it’s not tariff related. It’s non-tariff trade issues. We have approximately 400 beef establishments that have not been relisted in the China cipher system. So, it doesn’t matter what your duty is if your plants aren’t registered. This is at the top of the list on the beef side. On the pork side, the plants are listed, which is great news, but we still have a pretty hefty tariff. Uncertainty and instability in the market right now caused around China is a real headwind we have to get beyond.”

Halstrom says USMEF’s outlook for the remainder for 2025 is for exports to return to a strong pace, which was a theme during the first quarter of the year.

“For the pork side, our forecast, which assumes the current situation or something improved, shows we’re basically steady with a year ago — which was a record a year,” Halstrom says. “So, the demand is still very, very strong. Now, the caveat is what happens with China going forward on pork, and definitely on beef. On the beef side, our forecast is down 6% — but that’s with no beef plants relisted for China. Outside of China, beef demand is, in our opinion, fantastic — even at higher prices. Despite the uncertainty, we’re well positioned.”

Looking back at 2024, beef export value climbed 5% from 2023 despite a slight decrease in volume. Part of that was due to historically tight cattle supplies creating less meat for exports.

Pork exports to Mexico in 2024 totaled 1.15 million metric tons in 2024, up 5% from the enormous total exported in 2023. Export value climbed 10% in 2024 to $2.58 billion – more than doubling since 2020.

Cattle Futures Chase Record Cash: Soybeans Fall and Corn Follows

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:45:54 GMT

Ag markets are mostly higher early Monday, except soybeans.

Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live and feeder cattle futures area rallying chasing record cash.

Prices in the North were $234 to mostly $235 live last week, with some trades late Friday up to $237 in Western Nebraska. Many of those prices could be locked in through the end of June. Northern dressed sales had a range of $360 to $376, mostly $370, $8 higher than the previous week’s weighted average, basis Nebraska.

The South traded $221 to mostly $223, up $2 to $3, but up to $225 late Friday.

Kooima says the basis is historically wide with cash nearly $25 over futures in some of the deferred contract months is making it difficult for producers to use the board for risk management.

Boxed beef values for the Choice cutouts are above $366 and the second highest levels since COVID, indicating continued strong demand.

Today is the first day of expanded limits in cattle futures with live cattle going from $6.50 to $7.25 and feeder cattle limits expanding from $8.25 to $9.25.

Kooima says this is not beneficial for cattle producers or hedgers.

“When is the last time cattle futures have been limit up? It’s been forever, yet we were just limit down the day the reciprocal tariffs were announced so I don’t see this as positive,” he explains.

Lean hog futures are higher except June getting pushed by strong cash and cutouts and fund buying.

Cutout values on Friday were up $2.60 at $107.22, a new high for the year and the Lean Hog Index was up $.71 coming into Monday’s session at $94.84.

Meanwhile, funds have piled in to buy the lean hog futures with their long position now at nearly 95,000 contracts and open interest rose nearly 65,000 contracts during May.

So, Kooima says there may be more upside and he’s targeting $112 on the June contract.

Corn followed wheat higher early in the session and saw some short covering but then fell with soybeans.

While soybeans fall with China trade concerns and favorable weather.

Cattle Rally Early Friday Chasing Exploding Cash: Corn and Soybeans Weak

Fri, 30 May 2025 14:44:31 GMT

Cattle and hogs are rallying early Friday, with corn and soybeans weak.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are chasing exploding cash.

Another week of record prices with Northern live sale prices $234-$235 live with some booked out all the way through the end of June. Dressed prices were at $368 to $370, up $6 to $8 from last week’s weighted average, a few deals as high as $375. In the South cash developed at $221-223, up $1-$3.

The basis is now historically wide with the June board nearly $20 under cash and will have to play catch up at some point.

However, Varilek says the board has been a bit reluctant to make a big move higher with concerns about New World Screwworm entering the U.S. and the impact that could have on consumer demand or at least the perception of beef.

Meanwhile, USDA has infused $21 million into sterile fly production in a plant in Mexico to help safeguard the spread of (NWS) into the U.S.

Despite trade talk the border will remain closed to Mexican animal imports through the end of the year, USDA has said it will re-evaluate the status every 30 days.

Still, with the border shut Varilek says the cash market for feeder is also exploding due to tight supplies.

Lean hog futures were also higher early following the strength in cash and cutouts as Varilek says packers are scrambling to source hogs due to a marketing hole created by disease. The market is holding up fairly well with news the China U.S. trade talks have stalled.

Corn and soybeans see some weakness Friday as funds continue to sell on favorable near term weather and trade uncertainty.

An appeals court has ruled to leave the tariffs in place for 10 days until a formal hearing can be held.

Exports were poor for soybeans Friday morning 5.4 million bu. old crop and 1.2 million bu. new crop. Corn exports were stronger at 36.1 million bu. old and 1.2 million new.

USDA also reported flash export sales totaling 8.3 million bu. to unknown destinations, with 2/3rds of the tender old crop.

However, Varilek says the demand news is not enough to overcome the idea of larger supplies of corn and soybeans just weeks away.

Trump Announces Win for Beef and Ethanol Trade With UK

Thu, 08 May 2025 21:07:22 GMT

On Thursday, President Donald Trump and United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a historic trade deal, providing American companies unprecedented access to the UK markets while bolstering U.S. national security.

“The deal includes billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in agriculture, dramatically increasing access for American beef, ethanol and virtually all of the products produced by our great farmers,” Trump explains.

With the agreement, the UK will reduce or eliminate numerous non-tariff barriers that unfairly discriminate against American products.

This trade deal will significantly expand U.S. market access in the UK, creating a $5 billion opportunity for new exports for U.S. farmers, ranchers and producers. This includes more than $700 million in ethanol exports and $250 million in other agricultural products, such as beef.

.@POTUS’ historic deal with the UK is a HUGE WIN for American farmers & ranchers. 🚜🇺🇸

Here in the United States, we produce the SAFEST and most ABUNDANT food supply in the world! 🌍 This deal puts our great American Agricultural Producers FIRST! 💪 pic.twitter.com/XSMZnwxV3s
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) May 8, 2025

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins was at the press conference and shared how important the deal is and what it means to American farmers and ranchers.

“This is going to exponentially increase our beef exports,” she says. “And to be very clear, American beef is the safest, the best quality, and the crown jewel of American agriculture for the world.”

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), last year the U.S. exported a little under 2,000 mt of beef to the UK (1,970 mt, to be exact), valued at about $32 million.

“Since Brexit, U.S. beef has not had any duty-free access to the UK,” explains Joe Schuele, USMEF senior vice president of communications. “All U.S. beef exported to the U.K. is currently subject to a 12% tariff, plus an additional duty of about 2.5 British pounds per kilogram.”

USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom says USMEF is excited about the potential due to the agreement.

“From a tariff standpoint, the fact that they would be creating a zero-duty country specific spot for U.S. beef in the UK, this is definitely encouraging,” he says. “That being said, there’s still work to be done from our viewpoint, because there’s quite a few issues around non-tariff trade barriers that concern us into the EU and to the UK around market access and restrictions approvals.”

These include hormone usage, residues and restrictions around beef carcass acid rinses.

“So while we’re optimistic, we hope that these other non-tariff issues are taken into account as well,” Halstrom says.

When Trump was asked by a British reporter if he expects the UK to accept all American beef and chicken products, Trump responded with reference to the work being lead by Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“Bobby Kennedy is doing a tremendous job,” Trump explains. “He’s heading toward your system with no chemical, no this, no that.”

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) released its support of Trump’s agreement and the market access it provides beef.

“With this trade deal, President Trump has delivered a tremendous win for American family farmers and ranchers,” says NCBA President Buck Wehrbein, a Nebraska cattleman. “For years, American cattle producers have seen the United Kingdom as an ideal partner for trade. Between our countries’ shared history, culture and their desire for high-quality American beef, securing a trade agreement is a natural step forward. Thank you President Trump for fighting for American cattle producers.”

🚨 The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association @BeefUSA releases a statement praising the trade deal with the UK:

“Thank you President Trump for fighting for America’s cattle producers.” pic.twitter.com/iJcE2YBCL5
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 8, 2025

In a release , NCBA says it has spent years advocating for expanded trade with the UK. When the UK left the European Union in 2020, that opened the door to secure trade agreements with countries like the U.S. British and American cattle producers share similar values, and British consumers also enjoy American beef.

NCBA members have participated in several meetings both domestically and abroad with senior British government officials to educate them on our production practices and the unique attributes of our product. NCBA also recently met with current British Ambassador Peter Mandelson.

Zero Ethanol Tariff

During the announcement, Trump officials indicated that tariffs on U.S. ethanol will be reduced to zero. According to the White House fact sheet , this covers $700 million worth of U.S. ethanol exports.

The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) praised the trade agreement.

“This is great news,” says Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr. “We applaud President Trump and his administration for brokering this deal, and we encourage them to continue to include corn, corn ethanol and corn co-products in future bilateral agreements with other countries.”

NCGA had previously asked the Trump administration for increased ethanol access in the United Kingdom. The country is currently the second largest destination for U.S. ethanol exports, taking in 244 million gallons, which is 12.7% of the total U.S. ethanol exports for 2024. Ethanol exports to the UK have steadily increased since 2021.

“I think it’s a positive,” adds Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX Group. “Britain is not a big agricultural importer from the U.S. But what I think is significant is agriculture is included in it. And so there are some products that will benefit, but it starts the momentum going. And I look for other trade deals that come to also have agriculture. So I think that tells us more about where the Trump administration sees agriculture as playing a critical role.”

Optimistic About Possibilities for Pork

Halstrom says USMEF is excited about the potential for pork into the UK as well.

“They’re a large user of pork in the UK,” he explains. “They have large exports currently from the EU into the UK, and we know that there’s legitimate demand for U.S. pork into the UK as well as the EU.’

He admits pork has some of the same complicating factors regarding restrictions on the technical side.

“While no details are published on pork, yet, we’re hopeful pork is not only part of the agreement but the non-tarriff issues would be addressed as well,” he says.

Other Wins With U.S.-UK Trade Agreement

Other key points to the agreement, include:

It commits the countries to work together to enhance industrial and agricultural market access.
It closes loopholes and increases U.S. firms’ competitiveness in the UK’s procurement market.
It ensures streamlined customs procedures for U.S. exports.
It establishes high standard commitments in the areas of intellectual property, labor and environment.
It maximizes the competitiveness and secures the supply chain of U.S. aerospace manufacturers through preferential access to high-quality UK aerospace components.
It creates a secure supply chain for pharmaceutical products.

“The President’s trade strategy is working. We are working every day to increase American economic exceptionalism and that includes selling the bounty of American agriculture around the world,” says Secretary Rollins “I am traveling to the UK next week on my first foreign mission to meet with my counterparts and discuss the commitments of this deal. Our strong cultural and political ties between our countries have led to incredible economic prosperity. It is our goal to achieve even closer relations, and we are thankful for a deal that benefits both countries and gives American farmers, ranchers, foresters, and food processors better access to the UK market and the ability to compete for this business.”

Secretary Rollins will meet with senior UK government officials, visit facilities importing U.S. agricultural products, and hear from U.S. cooperators and UK importers on how the administration can best position U.S. agricultural products in the UK market.

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Nalivka: Livestock and Meat Industry Margins

Mon, 05 May 2025 13:51:10 GMT

Uncertainty and volatility have been the watchwords of the U.S. red meat and livestock industry over the last 3 months as the Administration has taken global trade as a major issue for the U.S. economy. I do believe that this will come to a positive resolution over the next several weeks, but in the meantime, the challenges posed by rising costs of production in agriculture will continue. Consequently, this issue needs to be taken seriously as both over-regulation and high-cost energy resulting from government policy are critical contributors to those inflated costs.

It is obvious the health of U.S. agriculture is critical to all Americans. We depend on a high-quality supply of food. But, perhaps, more importantly, food that is produced in the U.S. by American farmers and ranchers. This is the definition of food security and at times, I question whether that notion is as high on the general public’s priority list as it should be.

Secretary of Agriculture Rollins has expressed publicly the importance of U.S. agriculture followed by a statement that USDA is here to help the industry with that help directed toward financial programs. I would suggest that we are at the point that we need to get beyond simply looking at USDA programs to help farmers, but instead, assess and correct core issues causing financial stress. Financial performance in a business is the end-result of both revenue and costs of production. There are many supply and demand factors that impact both revenue and costs with weather being one of the most significant in agriculture. We can generally predict the weather and make decisions accordingly, but we cannot change it.

In addition to weather, production costs in U.S. agriculture are also significantly impacted by government regulations – both Federal and State – that are too numerous to list and U.S. energy policy which also concerns regulations. Addressing these two critical costs to producing crops or livestock also tackles the issue of the long-term sustainability of individual farmers and ranchers and U.S. agriculture. I have been involved in litigation concerning the impact of Federal lands policy regarding grazing permits and wild horses on individual ranches. This is just one example and the list of regulations on agriculture is not small nor is the impact.

It’s time to get down to basics regarding the long-term financial well-being of U.S. agriculture and our food security. The focus must go well beyond USDA programs toward resolving the negative impact of regulations and unlike weather, regulatory activity is controllable.

Your next read: Breaking Ground: Livestock Producers Unite to Tackle Crucial Industry Issues