Russia

Senate Votes to Limit Foreign Land Ownership

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 20:24:53 GMT

Roughly 37.6 million acres of U.S. ag land is foreign owned, according to USDA. The majority of these deeds are held by Canada, Netherlands, Italy, United Kingdom, Germany and China. However, select purchases of U.S. land could come to an end following a Senate vote this week.

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted 91-7 in favor of an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2024 that, if made law, would prohibit China, Russia, North Korea and Iran from purchasing U.S. land.

Also included in the amendment is a requirement for the president to submit a report to Congress on any waiver granted to a prohibited country.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who helped push the legislative changes, says the time for foreign landownership action is now.

“These four adversaries view America as their top competitor and only wish to gain advantage and opportunities to surveil our nation’s capabilities and resources,” says Rounds. “This commonsense provision will make our homeland more secure.”

The amendments will now make their way to the House floor. If the House majority votes in favor of the provisions, they will become law.

USDA Allegedly Impacted by Russian-Speaking Hackers

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 17:04:38 GMT

USDA is investigating a possible data breach related to a broader hack of U.S. government agencies.

Officials in the Ag department say the data breach allegedly involves a contractor and impacts a small number of workers—roughly 30, which is a small pool considering USDA employees 100,000 people.

According to USDA, Russian-speaking hackers are the likely suspects and the department will contact and provide support to anyone affected.

The Office of Personnel Management and two organizations within the Department of Energy also were apparently targeted or breached.

Ag Trade Between Russia and China Increased to 153% in April

Tue, 30 May 2023 15:01:20 GMT

Russia and China are looking to increase their trade in ag goods, with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stating that Russian farmers are prepared to significantly increase exports to China.

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also expressed China’s interest in enhancing industrial and agricultural cooperation with Russia. These comments were made during a bilateral business forum held in Shanghai.

Boom in Ag Trade Between Russia and China

Amid growing international isolation over the war in Ukraine, Russia is seeking to deepen its trade ties with China, which has refrained from joining the U.S.-led sanctions against Russia. This situation has led to a boom in trade between the two nations, with Beijing’s purchases of energy and aluminum surging due to sanctions restricting supplies to the West. Furthermore, China’s exports to Russia reached a record high in April, amounting to $9.6 billion, a 153% increase from a year earlier.

Related story: Why is China Suddenly Canceling Purchases of U.S. Corn?

While the western sanctions do not directly target food and fertilizers, there is considerable potential in these sectors. During the forum, wheat and meat shipments were reportedly on the agenda. This comes at a time when China is aiming to reduce its import reliance on crops like soybeans, primarily sourced from Brazil and the US, and needed to feed its substantial pork herds.

China’s Slow Transition to Russian Ag

Over the past year, China has increased its purchases of food items from Russia. For instance, Russian edible oils, primarily sunflower and rapeseed oils, constituted a quarter of China’s total imports in the first four months of the year, up from 13% a year earlier.

Related story: 5 Fundamentals That Could Still Rally Wheat Prices

However, wheat is an exception to China’s increased buying from Russia, Bloomberg points out. Despite a surge in wheat imports by over 60% to about 6 million tons in the first four months of the year, Russia only supplied 30,000 tons. Despite Beijing’s announcement last year that it would allow wheat imports from all parts of Russia, trade has been impeded by issues like phytosanitary regulations, transportation challenges, and geographic constraints. The primary wheat-growing area in Russia is located in the south, near the Black Sea, a considerable distance from China.

Kansas Winter Wheat Crop Crippled by Drought that Covers 80% of the State

Tue, 18 Apr 2023 17:24:35 GMT

The drought situation across much of the Plains hasn’t improved this year; instead, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows it’s growing worse. Now, farmers across a state that typically accounts for 25% of the total winter wheat production in the U.S. are staring at a bleak picture for crop prospects this year.

Doug Keesling farms near Lyons, Kan. He would typically be planting spring crops in April, but because it’s so dry, he’s playing the waiting game and needing a little moisture before he plants.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday shows 43% of the state is seeing the most severe level of drought. While some parts of the state are seeing the intense drought conditions, the dryness is extremely variable across the state.

(Farm Journal)

“It’s amazing. If you go 30 miles east of me, it’s wetter than it is here. But if you go from here towards southwest Kansas, it’s as dry here as it is there, which is not what we’re used to,” says Keesling. “It’s been dry like this for almost a year.”

He says the variation in winter wheat crop conditions across even his own county is proof about how variable drought conditions are across the state.

“There was a lot of wheat that went in after fall crops, like after corn or soybeans, that did not germinate until later in the winter, because it was so dry,” he says. “Matter of fact, we had some wheat, that in severe cases, did not germinate until January or February when there was a light snow.”

USDA’s Crop Progress released on Monday showed 61% of the Kansas wheat crop is rated as being in poor to very poor condition.

For the week ending April 9, 2023, there were 6.6 days suitable for fieldwork, according to @USDA_NASS. Winter wheat condition rated 33% very poor, 28% poor, 26% fair, 12% good, and 1% excellent. Winter wheat jointed was 17%, near 19% last year and 20% for the five year average. pic.twitter.com/T2ZezFNiIY
— KansasWheat (@KansasWheat) April 10, 2023

Kansas Wheat says farmers across much of the state are worried about their wheat crop.

“Wheat is a pretty resilient crop, so it can hold on in some dry conditions. But especially as you get closer to southwest Kansas, a lot of it just didn’t emerge in the fall,” says Marsha Boswell, vice president of communications for Kansas Wheat. “Coming out of dormancy, it needs some moisture to start growing again, and it’s just not receiving any of the moisture that it needs.”

Back-to-Back Years of Drought

Boswell says while many farmers struggled through dry conditions last year, it’s the back-to-back years of dry weather that have been such a sharp blow to crops.

“Last year we were in a long-term drought, but what the difference is from last year is that subsoil moisture now is completely depleted. So last year in the drought, the wheat could pull from some of that subsoil moisture and go ahead and make a plant. It hasn’t been replenished, and there’s just no subsoil moisture there to pull from now.”

With sporadic chances of rain this weekend, many growers are holding onto hope at least some moisture will bring the crop out of such sluggish conditions. For some, it may already be too late.

“I was out and about and went to some areas in western Kansas, and I was told at that time that if they could get some moisture in the next week or two, this crop could pull out of this a little bit, but we haven’t seen that,” Boswell says.

The Wheat Quality Council will hold its annual wheat tour across Kansas in mid-May, a time when maturing wheat will give farmers and others a better estimate of the quality and quantity of this year’s crop.

“I think as we get farther to the west and up and around Colby that first night, and then that second day where we go from Colby to Wichita and through southwest Kansas, we’re really going to see some tough conditions and some abandoned fields,” Boswell says.

Snapshot of National Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

Nationally, USDA’s Crop Progress report showed only 27% of the country’s winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent.

“This is probably one of our weakest crop progress reports for conditions in 40 years,” says Ben Brown, agricultural economics Extension specialist for the University of Missouri. “I mean, this is tied with 1996 in some states, and 1996 was a pretty poor year for wheat producers.”

(Farm Journal)

University of Missouri Extension economist Ben Brown says the eastern half of the country is seeing strong wheat conditions, with more farmers in states like Illinois, Ohio and Michigan potentially taking that crop to harvest instead of only using the wheat as a cover crop during the winter months.

“On the other side of the scale, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some pretty strong abandonment in places like the panhandle of Texas, Oklahoma, and southwest Kansas,” says Brown. “Just too poor of conditions. Maybe there will be the opportunity to plant another crop in there and hope for some rainfall later in the season.”

Possible High Abandonment of U.S. Winter Wheat

Keesling isn’t sure how much of his crop will need to be abandoned, as he says it’s just too early to know. Across the state, severely drought-stricken fields aren’t showing much promise, and the likelihood is growing that more winter wheat fields won’t be harvested this year.

“I think there’s no question there’s going to be some abandonment, probably higher than in a lot of years, because the wheat just isn’t up and it’s not growing,” says Boswell.

What makes that reality so hard is the current price of wheat, even if some question whether today’s prices truly reflect how bad this winter wheat crop really is.

“I think there’s an understanding that yes, we’re dealing with less room to spare here, if you will, but we’ve still got a pretty healthy global wheat picture, even with some of these challenges here in the United States. And then certainly with the continued challenges in the Black Sea Region,” says Brown. “So, understanding all those conditions, as well as kind of what’s weighing on some of this market a little bit.”

The Black Sea Wild Card

The future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is currently very murky. The Russian ag minister says Russia won’t renew the grain deal until the West’s sanctions on Russian food and fertilizer are lifted.

According to Farm Journal Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer, senior Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov commented on the situation on Friday, saying the West still has time to remove “obstacles” hindering the implementation of the Black Sea grain deal before a deadline set for May 18.

“Every time we’ve seen this kind of come around, and these flares that it doesn’t look like the grain deal is getting renewed, we’ve seen a 25- to 50-cent rally in the wheat market. And that’s just kind of the nature of the game right now,” says Brown.

Focus on Producing a Crop Through the Drought

As Kansas farmers work to provide the wheat needed for the rest of the world, Keesling says the reality is tough, but the drought hasn’t completely wiped out hope of producing at least some type of crop this year.

“Farmers, as a whole, have a lot of faith that there will be rain,” he says. “And so, I’m trying to be as optimistic as I can be even though sometimes some of these crop conditions behind us don’t always look it. We have faith that we will get rain and that something will turn around.”

Diesel Prices Up 78¢ from January 2022

Tue, 07 Feb 2023 14:14:11 GMT

According to the Energy Information Administration , the average U.S. price of diesel ran $4.62 a gal. in the week that ended Jan. 30, up 78¢ from a year earlier. On the East Coast, diesel sold for $4.84 on average, a 98¢ annual jump.

Will Electric Vehicles Actually Drive Down Prices at the Pump?

Meanwhile, Europe has announced a ban on Russian diesel fuel and other refined oil products--a move that will further curb its own energy dependence on Russian energy, while attempting to limit Russia’s gains from it’s energy sector. The ban allows for a 55-day grace period for diesel loaded on tankers prior to Sunday.

The move comes shortly after G7 countries announced a price cap on refined Russian oil products, which took effect on Sunday. Fuel oil and other low-value exports will be capped $45. A cap of $60 already applies to Russian crude.

Are Landlocked Soybean Crush Facilities Destined to Survive?

Insurers and shippers are prohibited from dealing in items covered by the cap unless they were bought below or at the designated price.

IMF Anticipates Global Inflation Will Peak in Late 2022

Tue, 11 Oct 2022 18:10:47 GMT

The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in global growth from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.

The global slowdown in 2022 is as projected in the July 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, while the forecast for 2023 is lower than projected by 0.2 percentage point. In the revised forecasts , 93% of countries received downgrades to their growth outlook.

More to Come

Aside from the global financial crisis and the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, this is “the weakest growth profile since 2001,” the IMF said in its WEO published Tuesday morning.

“The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession,” the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs.

Cause for Shift

The IMF noted three major events currently hindering growth: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis and China’s economic slowdown. Together, they create a “volatile” period economically, geopolitically and ecologically.

More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to slow, the report said.

Inflation Timeline

The IMF anticipates global inflation will peak in late 2022, increasing from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8%, and that it will “remain elevated for longer than previously expected.”

Global inflation will likely decrease to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024, according to the IMF forecast. The agency noted the tightening of monetary policy across the world to combat inflation and the “powerful appreciation” of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.

Red Flags

The IMF also highlighted that the risk of monetary, fiscal, or financial policy “miscalibration” had “risen sharply,” while the world economy “remains historically fragile” and financial markets are “showing signs of stress.”

In an interview with the Financial Times , Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said there was as much as a 15% chance global growth could fall below 1% eventually. This level would likely meet the threshold of a recession and would be “very, very painful for a lot of people.”

“We are not in a crisis yet, but things are really not looking good,” he said, adding that 2023 would be the “darkest hour” for the global economy.

The energy crisis is also weighing heavily on the world’s economies, particularly in Europe, and it “is not a transitory shock,” according to IMF’s report. “The geopolitical re-alignment of energy supplies in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine is broad and permanent,” the report added. “Winter 2022 will be challenging for Europe, but winter 2023 will likely be worse,” the IMF said.

The U.S. economy is expected to stagnate over the four quarters of 2022 and then maintain a sluggish 1% growth rate in 2023.

More on inflation:

Could Food Prices Ease in 2023? USDA’s New Consumer Food Price Forecast Has a Bit of Good News
Is Out-of-Control Inflation on the Horizon? Watch These Two Indicators
John Phipps: The Inflation We Expect

South Dakota, Montana and Kansas go on Beef Trade Mission to Russia

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:37:29 GMT

The South Dakota Agriculture Department recently joined with its counterparts in Montana and Kansas to send a beef trade mission to Russia.

Officials say Russia wants to rebuild its beef industry, and that means South Dakota producers have a huge opportunity to supply that country with high-quality breeding females, semen and embryos.

The trade mission ran from Oct. 23 to Nov. 2. It included stops in Moscow and Novosibirsk, Russia’s third largest city located in the Siberian region. The group met with U.S. officials, local government leaders, Russian cattle producers and potential buyers of U.S. beef genetics.

Ty Eschenbaum of the state Agriculture Department says the trip helped demonstrate that the Northern Plains is a top producer of high-quality beef genetics.