Real Estate

44 Million Acres: The New Frontier of Farm Consolidation and Growth

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 18:00:32 GMT

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit , Farm Journal Intelligence unveiled new farmland insights derived from predictive modeling and deep-data analysis. The research focused on the shifting landscape of land acquisition, identifying which operations are at risk of consolidation, who is positioned for growth and where the most significant opportunities lie.

Here are the six primary findings for farm businesses:

1. Scale Does Not Immune Operations from Consolidation.

(Farm Journal)

While smaller operations face the highest risk — with 58% of small farms “at risk” for sale or acquisition before 2030 — size is not a complete safeguard. Research shows the risk of consolidation or ownership transfer never drops below 27%, even for the largest operations. Furthermore, crop diversity made minimal impact on these odds; the likelihood of transition remains constant whether a farm produces one crop or more than 11.

2. Geography Trumps Diversification.

(Farm Journal)

Regional location is increasingly becoming a primary driver of financial success, often outweighing the benefits of operational diversification. As regional market divides grow, farmers and ranchers are finding that local market conditions and individual circumstances dictate their trajectory more. State-level or even county-level effects are more indicative of their situation than national trends.

3. The 44-Million-Acre Transition.

(Farm Journal)

Nearly 15% of American cropland is projected to change hands within the next three years, driven by generational transfers, continued consolidation and economic pressures. Farm Journal data identifies the Midwest as the epicenter of this shift, with roughly 12 million acres likely to transition. Nationwide, that total reaches a staggering 44 million acres.

4. Mapping the “Sweet Spot” for Expansion.

(Farm Journal)

By plotting cost per cropland acre against the volume of land likely to transition, clear opportunities for expansion emerge. For producers looking to grow their footprint, the most viable opportunities are currently concentrated in Kansas, Texas, North Dakota, Missouri, and Oklahoma, according to this research.

5. Integrity Is the Top Currency in Rental Markets.

(Farm Journal)

When more than 400 landowners were surveyed about tenant selection, integrity ranked as the most critical factor. Interestingly, age was reported as the least important factor. For producers looking to secure rented ground, a reputation for character and experience outweighs both seniority and youth.

6. The “Willingness” Factor in Technology.

(Farm Journal)

Producers most inclined to expand share a common trait: a higher comfort level and rate of adoption with technology. Crucially, this is not necessarily tied to technical skill or existing expertise, but rather to mindset and action. The most growth-oriented producers are defined by their willingness to try new technologies rather than their current mastery of them.

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One Company's Unique Way To Defer Capital Gains Tax

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 15:22:22 GMT

As many farmers know, there isn’t always a next generation to pass the farm down to.

Your kids may live out of state, happily pursuing careers as doctors, lawyers and professors. They have fond memories from their childhood on the farm fondly but won’t be taking over ownership, and you’re ready to slow down and retire. So, you collectively decide selling the farm is the best option for everyone.

The problem here is that in most cases, the sale will generate a significant amount of capital gains tax, which is where Farmers First Trust can help. The company’s principal, Mike Gustafson, recently joined the Top Producer podcast with Farm CPA Paul Neiffer to explain the process.

“What we tell the farm family is to go ahead and get a farm sale in place, but what you need to have in the purchase contract is an approval that a Section 453 transaction can be done at the request of the buyer and seller,” Gustafson says.

Here’s how Farmers First Trust uses the Section 453 tax code to defer capital gains tax on a farm sale:

The title of the sale goes directly from the seller to the buyer.
The funds of the sale go to Farmers First Trust.
The family takes out a loan with an investment bank, and a loan is initiated to them four to six days after closing for up to 99% of the net sale.
After a period of time chosen by the seller with the advice of their CPA (most commonly 30 years), the final 1% of the sale is released and then the capital gains tax will be due.

“In 30 years, $1 today at 3% inflation, is going to be worth about 44 cents,” Gustafson says. “They’ve had the opportunity to maybe double or triple that money over the course of those 30 years.”

Why Use This Method
If this seems complicated, you’d be right. Neiffer cautions this method isn’t right for every family, but it does have its advantages.

“This is something that you have to be in the right situation in order to take advantage of it,” Neiffer says. “It can be a little bit more difficult than a 1031 but again, a 1031 also has its drawbacks. You only have up to 45 days to identify, typically up to only three properties, and then you only have 135 days after that, or 180 days total, to actually close on that property. This allows you to defer that maybe three years down the road, and when you’ve identified property you can just go buy it with the cash that you got from this 453 transaction.”

Gustafson adds, “They can make their own decisions on what they do with the cash before they would make that purchase. That gives them a lot of flexibility, but also a lot of responsibility. So, it’s not for everybody, but in those cases where it does work for them, it’s extremely powerful.”

What's Happening In The Land Market? Your Regional Breakdown

Mon, 06 Jan 2025 18:41:34 GMT

A new report from Farmers National Company (FNC) shows land values have remained relatively stable in the Midwest, with two types of buyers largely driving demand.

“There are many factors for buyer motivation, but much of it can be explained by mindset translating to demand,” said Paul Schadegg, senior vice president of real estate operations at Farmers National Company. “Farm operators continue to be the primary buyers of ag land. Their mindset or motivation revolves around reinvesting in their farm enterprise, expanding operations, and utilizing today’s farm equipment fully. Location of land offered for sale also plays a large role in their decision making, as often this land has not changed hands for generations and once sold, may not be sold again.”

FNC predicts farmers will remain the primary land buyer in 2025. The second largest buyer is investors, who Schadegg says are driven by a completely different motivation.

“There is virtually no emotional motivation, as buying decisions are based on return on investment or anticipated appreciation of land value,” Schadegg says. “Many land investors have not experienced the rise and fall of agriculture cycles but fully appreciate the long-term value of land. As pressures on the ag economy increase, investors stand ready to bid on land that fits their investment criteria.”

With farmland’s long-term appreciation and annual return on investment, there are currently more buyers than sellers out there. The company reports land listings are down across the industry, on average, 25% from the active and accelerating value market experienced between 2020-2023.

Regionally, this looks like:

Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky:
Sales have decreased in this area compared to the previous three years. Jay VanGorden, area sales manager for the east region, says land values have seen minimal price drops for highly tillable and quality soil-type farms in most areas, but farms with lower-quality soils, lower tillable percentages, and poorer drainage have dropped off more significantly.
Illinois and Wisconsin:
Land sale values have increased in some parts of this region. Nate Zimmer, area sales manager for the east-central region, says record-breaking sales aren’t as common as they were though, and no-sales are popping up more - a sign seller and buyer expectations are not in alignment. Zimmer adds the method of listing is shifting more toward private treaty as well.
Iowa and Southern Minnesota:
Average land values have dropped 5% to 10% in the past year in Iowa and southern Minnesota. Thomas Schutter, area sales manager for this region, says alternative sale methods have become more common here, particularly for lower-quality farms. While higher-quality farms are still predominantly sold through auctions, there has been an increase in the use of traditional listings and sealed bids for marketing farmland in some areas.
Kansas, Eastern Colorado, Western Missouri:
Values have fallen in some areas of the south-central region, such as in southwest Kansas due to water availability. But other areas are still fetching top dollar for high-quality cropland and recreation properties, according to area sales manager Steve Morgan.
Western Nebraska, Northwest Kansas, Northeastern Colorado:
Cole Nickerson, area sales manager for the western region, says neighborhood demand and land quality are the primary drivers in the western region. Land values have remained high in regions with strong cattle production, high-quality irrigated and productive dryland farms and quality grassland. He adds economic challenges in the corn and soybean markets have made farmland more difficult to sell in areas dominated by row crop production.
Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa:
Chanda Scheuring, area sales manager for the west-central region, has seen the buyer-pool in this area shrinking. She shares buyers, both local farmers and investors, are still interested in making farm purchases. However, they’ve become more selective with properties and the price they are willing to pay.
Dakotas and Western Minnesota:
The land market in the northern regions is best described as chaotic, according to area sales manager Troy Swee.

“Land values remain very strong in areas where not much land has sold, and the producers had an above-average crop in 2024,” Swee explains. “However, in areas with less investor interest and where several farms have already been sold, land values appear to be down 10% to 15%.”

Your Next Read: New Trends Are Emerging In The Farmland Market

How To Align Environmental Metrics With Your Asset Management In Farmland

Mon, 20 May 2024 16:40:18 GMT

There’s no fast-forward button in farming to see how your investments pay off. But a recent time lapse playback by Iowa farmer Reid Weiland visually told the year-by-year story of how investing in a field yielded environmental and financial rewards.

“Things happen slow,” he says. “It’s the nature of farming one year to the next, and so it can take a decade for our story to develop.”

In the example above and video below, Weiland and his team identified low yielding areas and addressed fertility; they rebuilt and completed the main waterway in the field and added a second where needed; and they cleared an old building site. Piece by piece, season by season, their investments came to fruition.

Weiland Farms grows millet, corn and non-GMO, food-grade soybeans. Reid Weiland is managing partner/CEO and has been for the past 10 years since his father semi-retired.

The Case To Develop A Field Pedigree

With his leadership, Weiland and the team have developed an approach to manage their farmland (owned and leased) for environmental, productivity, and long-term financial payback. He says the need for this approach escalates as farm land has increased in market value.

“Think about where we’re spending $10,000 to $15,000 an acre today, and you don’t typically know what the fertility is,” he says. “You don’t know what the production history of it is. You don’t know any conservation or regenerative pieces that have gone through it. And we’re spending a million bucks for a tract, and we know very little about it.”

This highlights the opportunity of investing in regenerative practices that build up the land’s quality and performance but also emphasizes the risk of not doing so.

“Imagine because of macro economics, farmland doubled. It’s $30,000 an acre. Well, now we’re spending $2 million. How much more valuable is it to have what I would call a pedigree — a production pedigree, a regenerative pedigree?”

Weiland says such a land pedigree would have 10 years of cropping history with documentation of inputs applied by date and quantity.

“That could easily be worth $1,000 an acre for a $30,000 an acre farm, right?” he says.

Boost Land Value and Stewardship
Weiland Farms has made it a mindset to consider how they are investing back in their land with a two-prong goal: minimize environmental impact while boosting its value. Here are four goals the Iowa farm is focused on: Prevent soil erosion: methods include transitioning to minimal-till or no-till in highly erodible areas as well as installing grassed areas. Manage water quality: for example, explore opportunities for incentive funding to install filter systems that remove nitrates from water. Improve waterways: neglected waterways don’t do their intended job and can cause larger erosion issues. Invest in sustainable farming methods: think about how soil health improves long-term productivity.

Boost Land Value and Stewardship

Weiland Farms has made it a mindset to consider how they are investing back in their land with a two-prong goal: minimize environmental impact while boosting its value.

Here are four goals the Iowa farm is focused on:

Prevent soil erosion: methods include transitioning to minimal-till or no-till in highly erodible areas as well as installing grassed areas.
Manage water quality: for example, explore opportunities for incentive funding to install filter systems that remove nitrates from water.
Improve waterways: neglected waterways don’t do their intended job and can cause larger erosion issues.
Invest in sustainable farming methods: think about how soil health improves long-term productivity.

What Makes Farmland Different

From an investment management standpoint, Weiland says agriculture has fallen into a decades-long malaise with a culture that doesn’t encourage regularly informed management. Said another way, farmland is a unique asset because it doesn’t depreciate or require hands-on management from the owner if an operator is in place.

“If you were to correlate a farmland investment to an investment in an apartment building, they are similar but very different. An apartment building needs to be managed almost daily, the roof may need to be replaced, etc.,” he says. “Just like an apartment building, farmland is a solid asset base that you’re generating a return on. But you may have a landowner who hasn’t talked to a tenant in a couple of years. Who owns something worth a million dollars and doesn’t receive a regular report on it from the person managing it? It sounds ridiculous but some landowners can get lulled into complacency without realizing it.”

Physical Investments

Weiland says the approach is a combination of agronomic practices and physical improvements. A current tool they are using is controlled drainage structures.

“It’s estimated that 20% to 50% of water leaving the farm is leaving the farm unnecessarily; that means we are shipping 20% to 50% more water down the Mississippi River than we really need to,” he says. “In addition, these systems help us get in the field and plant when we need to. So, we are holding water, which we know contains nitrates, when we can and still are able to manage the soil moisture for field work.”

Weiland Farms’ first controlled drainage structure was installed this past year, and there are more installations in the works.

“It’ll take us multiple years to learn about this management tool and how it pays back, but we see the benefits already,” he says.

With multiple metrics, progress is tracked as it’s realized.

—Kristin Leigh Lore, Manager of Climate-Smart Content, Trust In Food, contributed reporting to this story.

Livestock Prices Push Down Ag Economy Index in May

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:17:29 GMT

But producers still see farmland as worthwhile investment.

Concerns about livestock prices took some air out of the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer, pushing the new index down to 97 in May from April’s 106.

“During May, 36% of respondents reported an expectation of widespread ‘good times’ for livestock producers over the next five years, which was well below the 46% expecting good times when surveyed in April. Recent declines in livestock prices, especially feeder cattle and live cattle, could help explain the decline in producers’ sentiment regarding the livestock sector,” according to the report for the monthly barometer, which was launched in April.

The situation was very different for row-crop farmers, who are currently enjoying a bullish trend in corn and soybeans. “The relatively large shift in producer sentiment regarding the livestock sector stands in contrast to the sentiment regarding the crop sector, which exhibited only a modest decline from April to May,” the report said.

Farmland Prices

The May survey also asked producers about farmland prices and the value of such land. While their expectations for price movements varied—just 33% said in May that they thought farmland prices would drop in the next 12 months, compared to 46% earlier this year—more than half (52%) of producers continue to see farmland as a worthwhile investment for the years to come.

“While it might seem paradoxical that a majority of farmers continue to view farmland as a good investment when so few producers expect farmland values to increase over the next 12 months, it’s likely attributable to the time horizon,” the report explained. “Although most farmers do not view the short-run prospects for farmland prices favorably, their long-run perspective continues to be relatively positive.”

What do you think will happen with farmland prices in the next 12 months? Let us know in the comments.

Real Estate

44 Million Acres: The New Frontier of Farm Consolidation and Growth

1. Scale Does Not Immune Operations from Consolidation.

2. Geography Trumps Diversification.

3. The 44-Million-Acre Transition.

4. Mapping the “Sweet Spot” for Expansion.

5. Integrity Is the Top Currency in Rental Markets.

6. The “Willingness” Factor in Technology.

Download the Full Report

One Company's Unique Way To Defer Capital Gains Tax

What's Happening In The Land Market? Your Regional Breakdown

How To Align Environmental Metrics With Your Asset Management In Farmland

The Case To Develop A Field Pedigree

What Makes Farmland Different

Physical Investments

Livestock Prices Push Down Ag Economy Index in May

But producers still see farmland as worthwhile investment.

Farmland Prices

AgBarometer Shows Less Optimism Among Farmers

Want more video news? Watch it on MyFarmTV.