Pork Market Reports and Analysis

May Beef Export Value Highest in 11 Months; Pork Exports Below Year-Ago

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 16:46:21 GMT

The value of U.S. beef exports topped $900 million in May, the highest since June 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork exports posted another solid performance in May but were below last year in both volume and value.

Japan, Mexico, Taiwan help push May beef export value over $900 million

May beef exports totaled 110,133 metric tons (mt), down 5% from a year ago but the second largest of 2024. Beef export value reached $902.4 million in May, 3% above last year and the highest in 11 months. Exports trended higher year-over-year to Japan, Mexico, the ASEAN Region, the Middle East, the Caribbean and Central America – which included a record month for Guatemala. May export value was also higher for Taiwan. For January through May, beef exports followed a similar trend, increasing 5% year-over-year in value to $4.29 billion, despite a 4% decline in volume (533,578 mt).

“It has been encouraging to see demand stabilize in Japan, where U.S. beef certainly faces significant headwinds,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The tourism boom has provided a much-needed lift for Japan’s foodservice sector, and it is a source of optimism for buyers and importers. Taiwan and the ASEAN region were also bright spots for U.S. beef in May, along with Western Hemisphere markets such as Mexico, Guatemala and the Caribbean.”

May pork exports below last year, but still show broad-based strength

May pork exports totaled 251,447 mt, down 4% from a year ago, valued at $715.8 million (down 2%). Shipments to leading market Mexico were below last year’s large volume but still trended higher in value. Exports increased year-over-year to South Korea, the ASEAN region, Central America and Colombia and held steady to Japan. Through the first five months of the year, pork exports were up 6% to 1.29 million mt, while export value was 7% above last year’s record pace at $3.6 billion.

“Pork shipments to Mexico trended a bit lower in May, but that’s following a record April performance,” Halstrom said. “And even at that, export value to Mexico still topped $200 million. U.S. pork also posted another great month in Korea and exports to the ASEAN region were the largest in three years. Demand also continued to strengthen in Central America and the Caribbean.”

Profit Tracker: Major Shift in Feed Costs Boosts Livestock Margins

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 19:23:52 GMT

Negotiated cash cattle sold $2 lower last week but lower costs helped boost feedyard margins $10 per head for an industry average profit of $212. Meanwhile, beef packers saw their margins improve some $30 per head to average losses of $202 per head, according to the Sterling Beef Profit Tracker . That puts the margin spread at $414 per head in favor of the feeder.

Cash cattle averaged $184.54 per cwt. the week ending Apr. 13, while composite wholesale beef prices posted $7.21 per cwt. losses to close at $291.35 per cwt. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

Cattle sold last week carried a total feed cost of $376 per head, down about $2 per head from the previous week, and about $221 less than feed costs for cattle sold the same week a year ago.

Cattle marketed last week had a breakeven of $169.35 per cwt., while cattle placed on feed last week have a breakeven of $173.39 per cwt., which is up about $1 per cwt. from the previous week. Cattle placed last week are calculated to have a purchase price for 750-800 lb. feeder steers at $242.19 per cwt., or $10 per cwt. less than a month ago. The feeder steer price is 19% higher than last year.

The estimated total cost for finishing a steer last week was $2,371 per head, down $38 per head from the previous week and up 9% from last year’s estimate of $2,165 per head.

Fed cattle slaughter totaled an estimated 484,812, up 6,626 head from the same week last year. Packing plant capacity utilization was estimated at 82.8% compared to 81.7% last year.

Farrow-to-finish hog producers found positive margins at $42 per head last week, up $11 from the previous week. Lean carcass prices averaged $92.72 per cwt., up $5.87 per cwt. from the previous week and $19.97 per cwt. higher than last year.

Pork packers saw profits of about $6 per head, or $4 per head less than the previous week. Last year pork packer margins were near breakeven. Hog slaughter was estimated at 2.485 million head, up 64,000 head from the previous week and up 58,000 head from last year.

Pork packer capacity utilization was estimated at 92.3% compared to 90.2% last year.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Another Record Month for Pork Exports to Mexico; Beef Exports Show Modest Rebound

Sun, 10 Dec 2023 05:12:23 GMT

U.S. pork exports posted another strong performance in October, led by record-large shipments to Mexico and broad-based growth elsewhere, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). October beef exports remained well below last year’s large totals but improved from September, led by stronger demand in Mexico and Taiwan.

Monster Year Continues for Pork to Mexico; Strong October Rebound in Colombia

October pork exports totaled 245,345 metric tons (mt), up 3% year-over-year and the largest since June, valued at $688.2 million – down 2% from a year ago. Shipments to leading market Mexico reached new highs for both volume and value, while exports to Colombia were the largest since mid-2022 and achieved the highest value in nearly two years. October exports to Central America were among the largest on record and included record-large shipments to Guatemala. Exports also increased year-over-year to the Dominican Republic, South Korea and Oceania.

For the first 10 months of 2023, pork exports increased 9% from a year ago to 2.38 million mt, with value up 6% to $6.66 billion.

“At a time when the U.S. pork industry needs to maximize revenue, I run out of superlatives when talking about the remarkable demand we are seeing in Mexico,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Pork exports are also achieving excellent growth across the Western Hemisphere and retaking market share in the Asia-Pacific.”

Bright Spots for October Beef Exports Include Mexico, Taiwan, Central America

Beef exports totaled 104,446 mt in October, down 17% from a year ago but 6% above the low volume posted in September. Export value was $836 million, down 11% year-over-year but 5% higher than September. October exports posted significant year-over-year increases in Mexico, Central America (including a record volume for Costa Rica), Taiwan, Europe and Africa, but continued to trend lower to Japan, South Korea and China.

January-October exports of U.S. beef reached 1.08 million mt, down 13% from the record pace of 2022, while value fell 17% to $8.32 billion.

“On the beef side, economic headwinds in our largest Asian markets continue to weigh on demand, as consumers trade down to lower-priced proteins,” Halstrom said. “The recovery in Asia’s foodservice sector has been limited, but we remain hopeful that it will accelerate in 2024. Recent efforts to jump-start economic activity in these countries and address weakened currencies could also improve the business climate.”

Lamb Exports Trend Lower in October

While achieving growth in Central America, October exports of U.S. lamb trended lower overall, falling 47% from a year ago in volume (182 mt) and 28% in value ($1.13 million). Through the first 10 months of the year, lamb exports fell 11% to 2,054 mt, while value declined 12% to $10.7 million. Exports increased to Central America (driven by growth in Costa Rica and Guatemala), Japan and the Middle East, but these results were offset by lower shipments to the Caribbean, Mexico and Canada.

A detailed summary of the January-October export results for U.S. beef, pork and lamb, including market-specific highlights, is available from the USMEF website .

Profit Tracker: Beef & Pork Producer Margins Gaining

Tue, 25 Jul 2023 21:19:27 GMT

Cattle slaughter continues in decline and packers are scrambling to find enough market-ready cattle to keep the chains moving. Feedyards have countered with higher asking prices. USDA’s most recent grading data and the national Choice plus Prime grading percentage reached a new low for 2023, equaling the 5-year average.

For the week ending July 22, cattle feeders found average profits near $441 per head, about steady with profits the previous week. The week’s 5-area direct price was $187.26 per cwt. an increase of $2.90 per cwt., which is $44 per cwt. higher (+24%) than the same week a year ago, according to the Sterling Beef Profit Tracker .

Beef packer margins slipped further into the red with average losses of about $81 per head, or losses of $71 per head more than the previous week. Wholesale beef prices posted an average of $300 per cwt., down about $5 from the previous week. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

Cattle sold last week carried a total feed cost of $580 per head, up about $2 per head from the previous week, but 12% higher than the $510 feed costs for cattle sold the same week a year ago.

Cattle marketed last week had a breakeven of $155.76 per cwt., while cattle placed on feed last week have a breakeven of $181.82 per cwt. Cattle placed last week are calculated to have a purchase price for 750-800 lb. feeder steers at $242.69 per cwt., and feed costs of $454 per head. The feeder steer price is 31% higher than last year.

The estimated total cost for finishing a steer last week was $2,180 per head, up 18% from last year’s estimate of $1,917 per head.

Fed cattle slaughter totaled an estimated 498,632 head, down about 4,000 head from the previous week and 14,000 fewer than the same week last year. Packing plant capacity utilization was estimated at 87.2% compared to 89.4% last year.

Farrow-to-finish hog producers saw profits of about $45 per head last week, about $9 per head more than the previous week. Pork producers saw profits of $89 per head the same week a year ago. Lean carcass prices averaged $106.13 per cwt., up $3.51 per cwt. from the previous week.

Pork packers closed the week with $6 per head profits, down $3 per head from the previous week. Last year pork packers were losing about $16 per head. Hog slaughter was estimated at 2.316 million head, down 12,000 head from the week before and up 22,000 head from last year.

Pork packer capacity utilization was estimated at 85.2% compared to 83.0% last year.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Profit Tracker: Cattle, Hog Profits Trend Higher

Fri, 07 Jul 2023 19:15:46 GMT

Cattle and hog feeding margins posted identical $66 per head profits last week, according to the Sterling Profit Tracker. Cattle rebounded out of the red on the strength of a nearly $2 per cwt. advance in cash prices while pork margins gained $10 per head following a $5 per cwt. price advance.

Cash cattle prices averaged $115.81 per cwt. last week, the highest weekly average since May of 2020. A year ago feedyard margins were $25 per head with a cash price of $119.25, according to the Sterling Beef Profit Tracker .

Average closeouts saw total costs for finishing a steer about $88 per head lower than the previous week at $1,509, most of that due to lower feeder cattle prices factored into the analysis.

Packer margins gained $50 per head to an average of $370. The result was a packer/feeder margin spread of $304 per head, down $17 from the previous week’s $321.

Beef packer capacity utilization was estimated at 88.3%, down 1.9% from the previous week, with an estimated 639,523 head slaughtered. A year ago packer capacity was estimated at 90.9% with a weekly kill of 650,009 head. Carcass weights this year are running 4 pounds lighter at 830 pounds.

Beef packer margins gained based on a $7 per cwt. advance in the beef cutout to $233.65. A year ago the cutout averaged $253.61. A year ago packer profits were estimated at $529 per head. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing Inc., Vale, Ore.

Farrow-to-finish pork producers saw their margins gain $10 per head with positive margins for the eighth consecutive week and total profits of $66 per head. Hog profit margins have increased $36 per head over the past month.

Lean carcass prices traded at $96.61 per cwt., an increase of $4.93 from the previous week, and $17 per cwt. higher than a month ago. A year ago pork producers saw average profits of $5 per head.

Pork packer margins averaged a profit of $14 per head, down $1 per head from the previous week and $12 per head lower than last year. Pork packer capacity utilization was estimated at 95.8% compared to 94.2% a year ago.

Sterling Marketing president John Nalivka projects cash profit margins for cow-calf producers in 2021 will average $125 per cow. For feedyards, Nalivka projects an average profit of $1 per head in 2021, and packer margins are projected to average $304 per head.

For farrow-to-finish pork producers, Nalivka projects 2021 will produces profits of $22 per head. Pork packers are projected to earn $20 per head in 2021.

Beef Exports Set Annual Record, Pork Exports Strong

Thu, 09 Feb 2023 19:59:48 GMT

U.S. beef and pork exports completed a banner year in 2022, according to USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports set records for both volume and value in 2022, while pork export value finished with the third-largest year on record.

Beef exports reached 1.47 million metric tons in 2022, a 2% increase. Export value increased 10% to a record $11.68 billion, nearly 40% higher than the previous five-year average.

“2022 was a ground-breaking year for U.S. beef’s international presence, with global demand stronger than I’ve seen in all my years in the industry,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom.

The U.S. exported a record share of its record-large beef production in 2022, and at higher prices. Export value to South Korea was $2.7 billion, up 13% and an all-time record for any single destination, while exports to China/Hong Kong jumped 22% to $2.55 billion. Other markets in which beef exports achieved annual records included Taiwan, the Philippines, Singapore, Colombia, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic.

A decline in exports during December, including a sharp drop in exports to China/Hong Kong, saw the month end with 112,707 metric tons shipped, down 7%, while value fell 21% to $782.6 million. China’s demand was reduced due to persistent zero-COVID policies.

“Late in the year, exports certainly felt the impact of persistent headwinds in our large Asian markets, including depressed trading partner currencies and COVID-related challenges in China, but the long list of countries in which records were set showcases the industry’s focus on diversifying export markets. While the year ahead will be challenging due to supply constraints, the exchange rate situation has improved and we still see room for growth in the foodservice sector as more regions continue their gradual rebound from COVID,” Halstrom said.

$2 Billion Pork to Mexico

Pork exports finished 2022 on a decidedly upward trajectory as December shipments reached 244,718 mt, up 13% year-over-year and the second largest of 2022 (slightly below November). December export value climbed 14% to $687.3 million. These results pushed 2022 exports to 2.67 million mt, down 8.5% from a year ago, while export value was $7.68 billion – down 5% from the record achieved in 2021. Exports of U.S. pork variety meat were the second largest on record at more than 530,000 mt, while export value was record-high at $1.27 billion.

Pork exports to Mexico set a volume record in December on the way to a record-breaking year in which exports increased 10% to nearly 960,000 mt. Export value to Mexico soared 21% to $2.03 billion, topping the $2 billion mark for the first time. December exports also set a value record in Central America and trended higher year-over-year to China/Hong Kong, the Dominican Republic, the Philippines and Australia.

“The Mexican market has been a star performer for U.S. pork for many years, but the 2022 results were truly remarkable,” Halstrom said. “In the face of growing competition in Mexico, the U.S. pork industry has expanded product offerings and found innovative ways to meet the needs of processors, retailers and foodservice operators. In addition to Mexico, it is gratifying to see such a broad range of markets contributing to our recent export growth, making the prospects for 2023 very promising.”

Cash Feeder Pig Prices Average $97.36, Down $2.81 Last Week

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 21:31:19 GMT

By Jennifer Brown, NutriQuest

This market update is a PorkBusiness.com weekly column reporting trends in weaner pigs. All information contained in this update is for the week ended April 19.

Looking at hog sales in October 2019 using December 2019 futures, the weaner breakeven was $103.44, up $3.74 for the week. Feed costs were up $0.21 per head. December futures decreased $3.45 compared to last week’s October futures used for the crush and historical basis is improved from last week by $5.37 per cwt. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on April 19. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations do not consider market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report
Cash-traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 60,850 head being reported which is 157% of the 52-week average. Cash prices were $65.86, up $0.30 from a week ago. The low to high range was $48.00 - $73.00. Formula-priced weaners were up $1.75 this week at $50.61.

Cash-traded feeder pig reported volume was below average with 4,800 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $97.36, down $2.81 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through April 19.

Graph 3 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. The profit potential increased $3.44 this week to a projected gain of $37.58 per head.

Jennifer Brown is Director of NutriQuest Business Solutions, a division of NutriQuest. NutriQuest Business Solutions is a team of leading business and financial experts that bring years of unparalleled experience in the livestock, row-crop and financial industries. For more information, please visit our website at www.nutriquest.com or email jenniferbrown@nutriquest.com.