Planting

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:56 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:28 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:58:41 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 13:04:58 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

The Omega Block Has Taken Over, And It Could Have a Major Impact on Drought and Planting Progress

Tue, 06 May 2025 19:59:57 GMT

What was a rapid planting progress across the Midwest became stalled by a wetter weather pattern to finish April. But now that we’re into May, an Omega Block is causing that pattern to shift, and that could bring good news for the drought-stricken Plains. It could also propel planting progress.

Michael Clark, CEO and co-founder of BAM Weather, says the rainfall totals over the past week have been unprecedented.

“If you look at areas like the South Central Plains, we have had rainfall totals that have exceeded really a foot or more of rain,” Clark says. “Places like Oklahoma, north-central Texas, that’s a 13" rainfall observation the last seven days. So the South Central Plains has been inundated with rain.”

Rainfall the past seven days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weater )

There were other areas that saw a sudden onset of moisture, which includes central Iowa, the Dakotas and southern Minnesota.

“We’ve lacked in the way of rain in eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,” Clark says. “That’s going to matter a little bit going forward.”

Brace Yourself for the Omega Block

Areas of the Midwest will see warmer and drier weather this week, while parts of the drought-stricken Plains are starting to see some much needed rains, and the Omega Block is to thank for that.

“The Omega block, essentially, what it does is it brings in an area of high pressure over the central part of the country. And in the seven day rainfall map here, that we have, that shows the forecast. It kind of shuts moisture off in the central U.S., but it adds to it in the West and into the East and even to the South,” Clark says.

The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

“You can kind of see that U shape forecast there,” he adds. “This is a seven day rainfall forecast map, so for a lot of folks in the heart of the Grain Belt, there is going to be really a shutoff in moisture as we head into May, but there will be an excess of moisture across the Deep South continuing.”

Clark says it could be too much of a good thing for some, as he’s concerned about too much rain in parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

“But the Omega block is good news for folks that need to get into the field and get some work done,” he adds.

A Big Warm-Up in May

April turned out to be a cooler than average month for temperatures. In fact, many farmers in the Midwest will tell you there’s one thing their crop needs right now, and that’s more sun.

Clark says the forecast is turning warmer and there is not as much rain predicted over the middle of the country.

“The forecast right now for the May temperature outlook is for, I think temperatures to start to warm up relatively pretty quickly for the month of May,” Clark says. “Most of the U.S. growing regions are going to be at or much above normal temperatures and probably a pretty rapid onset to summer. So there is going to be a rapid uptick in the planting pace here over the next couple of weeks, no doubt about that.”

May temperature outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather)

As for the precipitation, Clark says it’s leaning toward favorable for planting progress, as well, but he is concerned about the dryness starting to creep in.

“It will be good for planting. I’m concerned that late May into June, we may be running into some deficits and needing some rainfall,” he says. “So the outlook right now is as we get further into May and into June I’m concern about a potential shutoff and moisture and a little bit more heat to contend with.”

May moisture outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

Concerns About Dryness

Clark says when you look at how the May forecast is shaping up, he compares it more to years like 2001, 2006, 2012, and even 2021.

“Now, whenever I drop 2012, people’s ears always perk up and they get a little nervous, rightfully so,” he says. “I’m not saying a year like 2012 would happen, but I am concerned overall that years like that, they present issues with lack of moisture and excessive heat. I think this growing season is something that will be presented with its fair share of challenges in the weather department.”

Why Farmers are Flocking to Auctions for Low-Hour Equipment Deals

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 21:00:00 GMT

The used equipment buying season remains active as spring planting takes off. Farm equipment that is only a few years old with low operating hours continues to draw strong prices at auction.

Machinery Pete noticed that trend last week via a few record-setting transactions. At a Kiko Auctions sale in Diamond, Ohio, a pair of blue tractors and a blue planter raised the bar higher:

(Machinery Pete Facebook)

A 2013 New Holland T7 260 tractor with only 1,226 hours on it brought $152,000, which blasted past the previous record high for that year/model by over $19,000.

(Machinery Pete Facebook )

A 2015 New Holland T5 115 utility tractor with a loader (765 hours) brought in $75,000, beating the previous record high by $7,000.

(Machinery Pete Facebook)

A 2024 Kinze 3505 8/16 row planter with just over 170 acres planted on it sold for $100,000. That set a new record by $17,500.

“There’s a similar pattern here. Whether its blue, green or orange, if it’s got a few years on it with low hours and in nice condition, those prices are very strong right now,” Pete says.

Moving Iron host Casey Seymour, who has over 20 years of experience in the farm equipment dealership space, says there are more farmers hitting auctions than heading to the dealer lot, and that’s typical of a down cycle in the farm economy.

“Things at auction have a higher demand signal than what you see on the lot. When I was working at the dealership, I would see these sales and think, ‘Man, I’ve got five just like that sitting on my lot that I would sell to you for $10,000 less than what you bought that one for.’ But nobody’s coming to the table, and that’s just where we’re at right now,” he says.

Order-Writing Season For New
Aaron Fintel, used equipment specialist with 21st Century Wholesale – a John Deere dealer with 26 storefronts across Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas – joined the podcast to talk about the soon-to-open new machine order-writing period.

Fintel says it’s not something many think about when it comes to buying new, but farmers getting re-approved for financing has “been a process” this year.

“It’s kind of a two-edged sword. If you went and got that new machine at 0% interest at the end of last year because the accountant said to do it, I don’t care that it’s 0% because its also $450,000 sitting on the balance sheet,” he says. “That’s been a huge factor.”

Commodity Markets Update
Chip Nellinger, owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, joined Seymour to wrap up this week’s episode with an update on the commodity markets.

When it comes to corn and soybean futures, Nellinger says there is still “a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the market” but he is seeing some potential upside with President Trump softening on the tariffs against China.

“The stock market seems to be signaling something has changed, and the bean market has been pretty resilient here over the last couple of days,” he says. “There has been a fair amount of activity in planting, and I think that’s why corn has relaxed. We’re ahead of average planting pace at 12% and that’s probably delayed a little bit. So, we should see a lot more progress in next week’s report.”

Nellinger says to keep an eye on the South, where higher-than-average moisture levels have delayed corn planting, and farmers might flip acres to beans or cotton – or even take prevent plant insurance.

Want more Moving Iron? Click this link to watch the episode in full here.

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Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:54:34 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:49 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 15:02:27 GMT

What if you could know the timing of significant weather events for your area during the next six months with 91% accuracy?

Now you can, according to Gary Lezak, a former meteorologist with KSHB-TV in Kansas City turned weather entrepreneur.

Lezak’s business, Weather 20/20, provides weather-based data analytics on a global basis to its customers, who range from farmers to retailers to general consumers.

Eighty Years In The Making
Lezak learned in the mid-1980s that a weather cycle exists, an insight he attributes to Jerome Namais, who first addressed the concept in the 1940s. Namais, a renowned American meteorologist, was Chief of the United States Weather Bureau’s Extended Forecast Section in Washington, D.C. from 1941 to 1971.

“What it’s all about is the weather pattern above us – the river of air that goes across North America through the westerly belt, across to Europe, Asia, and then back around across the Pacific. That jet stream flow, that river of air above us, has an order to it,” Lezak told Andrew McCrea, host of the Farming The Countryside podcast, during a recent conversation.

For the next 20 years Lezak continued to study the weather cycling concept, refining what he learned as he went along.

By the early 2000s, Lezak was blogging about what he had learned, eventually calling the concept he developed the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). He founded Weather 20/20 in 2008.

“The LRC is all about the cycle,” Lezak says. “After many years of practicing it, 20 to 30 years of using it, we are able to predict when and where and a little bit of the what,” with regard to weather, he told McCrea.

The core tenet of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern establishes itself every year. It starts to set up in early October, with develpment continuing through early January. By then, Lezak says the pattern can be identified and predictions of every day’s weather around the world can be produced.

Based on the LRC, Lezak says he can predict with a 91% accuracy level when and where there will be major weather events – from snowstorms to hurricanes to droughts – for the next seven to eight months in the U.S.

“That (timing) is the sweet spot of the LRC and fits agriculture perfectly,” Lezak says.

He adds that Mother Nature still creates weather disruptions he can’t predict 9% of the time, based on influences such as El Nino, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

Lezak’s take on the accuracy of weather forecasts differs from what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, though an apples-to-apples comparison is not available.

The NOAA says a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Agriculture Takes Notice
As Lezak was honing the development of the LRC in the early 2000s, fellow meteorologist, Dean Wysocki, then based in Nebraska, learned of it and reached out to Lezak for more details.

Wysocki started using the information he learned during his broadcasts, noting that Nebraska farmers were hungry for more accurate weather insights and predictions.

“I’ll tell you what, it’s a game changer. That’s the easiest way to put it,” says Wysocki, who joined Lezak on the podcast.

Wysocki, now based in Fargo, N.D., got LRC certified and began telling farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota about its benefits.

“It’s a major piece of long-term weather forecasting, and the accuracy on it has just been amazing,” Wysocki says. “We’ve signed up between about 50 to 100 in our ag community and we’ve got nothing but positive feedback. Is it 100% correct? No, nothing is, but it’s a great tool to have on your tool belt.”

The Weather Outlook Ahead
During the conversation with McCrea, Lezak and Wysocki shared some of their weather predictions for late winter and early spring 2025, based on information the LRC has provided. Here are three of their predictions:

1. Lezak says a La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a grip currently on parts of the western and upper Corn Belt areas, but he expects that to ease up.

“That grip that it has tends to shift precipitation patterns to the eastern Corn Belt. That’s not good for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Lezak says. “It shifts precipitation patterns to the East, but that grip we think is going to be let loose by March.”

2. Wysocki says he foresees a wetter spring, in March and April, for most of the Dakotas.

“We’ll get our moisture that we need in March and more than likely into the first part of April, and that should be good for planting season,” he says. “I’m still concerned about the western Dakotas into areas of Montana and Wyoming, worried that they’ll remain dry.”

3. With regard to drought, Lezak encourages farmers to keep an eye on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, as he says droughts are constantly either shrinking or expanding.

“It appears that over the last year or so that areas of drought, as we look at the entire nation, have begun to decrease,” he says. “This one has been shrinking for weeks, and that is a good sign. The likelihood of that trend continuing is high.”

Wysocki and Lezak offered additional weather insights during their conversation with McCrea. You can hear more of those specifics on the podcast, available here:

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2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 19:25:58 GMT

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

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It's Scary Dry in the Western Corn Belt, But a Drastically Different Story in the East This Year

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 21:21:07 GMT

The U.S. drought picture has drastically changed over the past six months, but dry conditions continue to grip the western Corn Belt. Meteorologists say there’s a stark difference in planting conditions in the west versus the east this year.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows after an El Nino winter and active early spring weather pattern, drought coverage is now at its lowest level since spring of 2020. In early April, more moisture fell across the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. A strengthening low-pressure system and trailing cold front brought 6" to 18" of snow across the Upper Midwest and northern New England. Rain also saturated soils to the south.

(Farm Journal)

Planting progress numbers for corn are starting to roll in, but USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says there’s another crop to watch that might be a better indicator of planting progress this spring.

“I think oat planting is actually a pretty good surrogate for how fieldwork is actually going in the Midwest this time of year,” Rippey says. “You’ll notice an interesting trend on the oat planting chart — in the western part of the Corn Belt, look how fast the crop is going in.”

USDA’s second Crop Progress of the year last week showed oat planting in Iowa is 20 points ahead of normal. South Dakota is 12 points quicker than the average pace. Both are signs that dry weather is creating a rapid planting pace.

(Farm Journal)

“If you look at the numbers for Iowa and Nebraska, you’ll see almost one-third of the intended oat acreage has been planted by April 7. That’s way ahead of normal,” Rippey explains. “We see planting already taking place in South Dakota, Minnesota and even Wisconsin. Those numbers are pretty unusual for this time of year, so that indicates underlying dryness still exists in parts of the Upper Midwest, the western Corn Belt region and, of course, extending back to the Great Plains.”

In contrast, once you get east of the Mississippi River, oat planting is behind average. The planting pace in Pennsylvania was 8 points behind average last week, and that was before more rain fell across the eastern half of the country last week.

“We’ve effectively sharpened that gradient, and we’ll see those delays in the eastern Corn Belt starting to multiply. For the most part, it’s going to be planters rolling in the Upper Midwest and the Great Plains, as we have seen a deficit of rainfall the past several weeks.”

Topsoil Moisture Map Shows Severe Dryness

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says it’s also a good idea to monitor USDA’s topsoil moisture map. The topsoil moisture in New Mexico is considered nearly 80% short to very short. In Kansas, nearly 60% of the top soil moisture falls in that category as well.

If you then look at areas considered to be in surplus, all of the Northeast and parts of the eastern Corn Belt have too much moisture.

(Farm Journal)

“The big storm a couple weeks ago, bringing that big stripe of moisture across the Midwest, pushed topsoil moisture numbers to 68% surplus in Ohio, 35% in Indiana,” Rippey says.

Dry Conditions Aid Rapid Planting Pace

For areas experiencing drier conditions, planting is clipping along at an impressive pace.

“Of course that is great for keeping the planter going, but we do need moisture for winter wheat and soon for those recently planted summer crops,” Rippey says.

Farmers across the western Corn Belt are deeply concerned about just how dry it is. As dust flies this spring, some farmers even argue the Drought Monitor doesn’t accurately portray the picture, as soil is starved for moisture this year.

“There are people out there who are saying, ‘Man, we’ve not recovered what we’ve lost incrementally over the past four years.’ Until we start to see some major moisture recovery deep down in our soil, we’re going to have that concern,” says Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Last fall, Snodgrass says 40% of the lower 48 states were experiencing some form of drought. That number has been cut in half. While the recent moisture helped alleviate some concerns in Wisconsin and Minnesota, he says there are other areas, such as Missouri and Nebraska, that are still extremely dry.

Is El Niño to Thank for the Recent Rains in the Drought-Stricken Plains?

Wed, 03 May 2023 16:40:49 GMT

Farmers in the Southern Plains are finally starting to see some much-needed moisture hit their fields. While it may be too late to save the winter wheat, it’s a hopeful sign for farmers who needed the rain to even plant summer crops like corn and cotton. However, a USDA meteorologist says the rains can’t be attributed to the onset of El Niño quite yet.

The National Weather Service (NWS) says the 30-day rainfall totals vary greatly in parts of the region. For Oklahoma, the totals include:

Cheyenne: 1.82 inches, with 1.01 of that in the past week
Altus: 1.01 inches
Woodward: 2.25 inches
Norman: 3.87 inches

Nice rain last week! 2.25 inches over three days. I’m planting milo today. Byron, OK.
— Steve Clark (@CoopSteve) May 3, 2023

The rainfall hasn’t been as bountiful in Texas, with the NWS telling AgWeb most of Lubbock received a half-inch of rain or less so far this week. Lubbock also saw .03 inches of rain on April 23.

Amarillo received a little more rain in April, with the official total from the NWS at .95 inches. For May to date, Amarillo has seen .01 inches of rain, but there is another chance of rain tonight.

Is the recent rainfall a sign of change, or can we thank El Niño for the moisture that’s fallen the past couple of weeks? USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the chances of an El Niño this summer are growing, but that’s not what’s bringing in the recent rains.

“We do have El Niño in the offering, but we can’t say that El Niño is there yet, nor can we say that this is the cause for that,” says Rippey. “If anything, this just appears to be a storm that got a little bit off the normal storm track of being through Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas and brought some much-needed rainfall, 1 inch to 3 inches in some areas.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey points out the rainfall has been extremely spotty, so the totals vary greatly from not only town to town, but from farm to farm. The little moisture that’s fallen in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas is a welcome sign; however, it’s not near enough to eat away at the long-lasting drought.

“I’d like to have seen a little bit more widespread rain. But honestly, at this point we’ll take what we can get both for winter grains and for the upcoming summer crop season. And for drought-stressed rangeland and pastures which need a lot more help than just one storm to try to bounce back from a year or more of punishing drought,” says Rippey.

7:55 pm radar update. A line of thunderstorms packing wind gusts up to 65 mph and quarter-sized hail is moving northeast through the western and southern South Plains. # lubwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/uxJWD6U8js
— NWS Lubbock (@NWSLubbock) May 3, 2023

Rippey says he is still concerned about high winds and the potential for more dust storms in parts of Texas. With the drought still parked over the area, along with the ongoing chances for high winds, conditions could be ripe for potential problems.

Related Story:

As El Niño Makes Its Grand Return, Here’s What It Tells Us About Summer Weather and Corn Yields

Brutal Blast of Cold Set to Bring Widespread Freeze to the Western Corn Belt and Plains

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 18:43:48 GMT

Meteorologists say much of the country should brace for freezing temperatures this weekend and into early next week. The late April blast of cold weather doesn’t pose a big risk for the corn already planted in fields, but there are growing concerns about the potential damage to winter wheat.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the freezing temperatures could drop as far south as Texas.

“We are going to be watching at the end of this week on into next week some cold air that’s been kind of pulled up over Alaska in western North America swinging southward,” says Rippey. “And by the time we get to this weekend and on into early next week, we can easily see sub-freezing temperatures all the way down into north Texas. So, that means everybody north of that, including the northwestern half of Oklahoma, much of Kansas, all those areas should experience freezes.”

Friday night expected Kansas freezing temps. 22-27F West. 30-35F C and E. pic.twitter.com/p7M3yKjIxp
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) April 19, 2023

Rippey points out winter wheat is already heading in some of those geographies, including southern Oklahoma and parts of Texas.

“So, that is a concern where you overlap some freezing temperatures and heading winter wheat, with the part of the crop that’s even still viable, could be harmed by sub-freezing temperatures over the next few days,” says Rippey. “And unfortunately, that pattern seems like it’s going to continue. Although I think in time as we head into late April and early May, some of that colder air may spill more into the Midwest than the Great Plains. But this initial shot will deliver freezes likely as far south as at least the northern panhandle of Texas.

Rippey says he’s not as concerned about the corn crop that’s already planted since the crop either hasn’t emerged or the crop is still young enough that the growing point is below the soil.

“I think soils are warm enough to help insulate that growing point at this early stage. And as you move to the far north where it’s going to be really cold, we don’t have any corn planted yet. So I think we’ll be okay with the summer crops at this early stage,” says Rippey.

Western Belt freezing temps Friday night. pic.twitter.com/mlVKk4LYNp
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) April 19, 2023

Drew Lerner of World Weather has been keeping an eye on this weather pattern for more than a week. He originally warned about the possibility for a crop-damaging freeze late last week, but also said it was too early to see just how widespread the cold would be.

His latest forecast is colder than NOAA’s, but he points out crops may not be far enough along in potential problem areas.

“NOAA’s map is too warm, though, frost and freezes will occur southward into northern Oklahoma, southern Missouri and parts of Kentucky with Saturday’s coolest in the central Plains and Sunday’s and Monday’s coolest in the Midwest and middle Atlantic Coast States respectively,” says Lerner.

“Wheat, rye and oats are heading in the south of Oklahoma while canola is flowering. We are not expecting much more than frost in those areas, but it might be an area to watch. Most of the wheat in the lower Midwest is not far enough advanced to be impacted in a permanent negative manner,” says Lerner.

For the week ending April 16, 2023, there were 6.1 days
suitable for fieldwork, according to @USDA_NASS Winter wheat condition rated 60% very poor to poor, 26% fair, 14% good to excellent. Winter wheat jointed was 27%, behind 32% last year and 35% for the five-year average. pic.twitter.com/KkW31zYOdL
— KansasWheat (@KansasWheat) April 18, 2023

Winter wheat conditions are already in historically poor condition. Kansas’ crop is rated 60% poor to very poor, Oklahoma has 53% of the crop in the worst two categories and the Texas winter wheat crop is rated 52% poor to very poor.

“If you look at U.S. winter wheat conditions as a whole, as of April 16, we are seeing our lowest overall U.S. winter wheat conditions since the spring of 1996, and it’s really driven by these really abysmal numbers across the Central and Southern Great Plains,” says Rippey. “Right up and down the Central and Southern Great Plains everywhere, it’s almost every day that passes here, we’re losing more of this crop. Some of it never emerged. Some of it’s incredibly poorly established. And each passing day now in April, as the warmth, the wind and the dryness continue, we’re seeing lowering of those yield prospects and expectations for higher abandonment.”

From the dry weather and intense winds, to now the frigid air that could hit the crop into the weekend, winter wheat conditions continue to see weather challenges this year.

Crucial Rains Finally Drenched Portions of Texas, Is It Enough to Save the State's Crops and Cattle?

Wed, 25 May 2022 17:41:28 GMT

West Texas and the Texas Panhandle received crucial rains this week, reviving farmers’ hopes of producing a crop this year. A dire drought situation already robbed many farmers of their winter wheat , but with the drought picture setting up to be worse than 2011 in the area, it sprouted grave concerns about producing other crops such as cotton and corn.

According to AgFax newsletter, more than 3 inches of rain fell in some spots. AgFax reports in the southwest Panhandle, Muleshoe received 3.42 inches and Dimmitt caught 2.66 inches. Amarillo recorded up to 1.35 inches, 1 inch fell in Pampa, 0.39 in Dumas and 1.54 in Stratford. Lubbock recorded from 0.82 to 0.88 of an inch, while Plainview rejoiced over 1.83 inches and Abernathy received 1.32 inches.

Obligatory rain gauge picture…… pic.twitter.com/XGwn0kJACZ
— Mr. Pigweed ©️ (@LassMike) May 24, 2022

“We received anywhere from 1.3” to 1.8” of rain,” Plainview, Tex. farmer Steve Olson told AgWeb on Tuesday.

Olson said more chances of rain were in the forecast, as the likelihood of him being able to raise a crop increased with the much-needed rains.

“It totally changed the game for us. I absolutely believed it saved some of our crop,” he says. “At least we have a chance to produce a crow now, before there was no hope.”

.70” in n NW Amarillo overnight! Some really good rain SW of Amarillo where it has been the driest! pic.twitter.com/Sop2cFMbdo
— Russell French (@frenchrw) May 24, 2022

Crucial Rains with Drought Parked Over Texas

Prior to the rains this week, 90% of Texas was covered in drought, with the most severe conditions parked over West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Nearly 29% of the state was in D4, the most severe level of drought.

With the cotton crop insurance cutoff looming, farmers in the area were still coming to terms with the impact the drought would have on their operation. While the recent rains aren’t enough to rid the area of drought, it’s now provided some relief.

“Hopefully this moisture will aid planted fields and help those waiting on moisture to get planters going,” Murilo Maeda, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Cotton Specialist, Lubbock reported in the latest AgFax newsletter. “Across Texas, growers have continued to make progress. The latest USDA crop progress report indicates that 44% of the cotton acres are planted, up from 30% last week, with an estimated 8% already squaring.”

Adjusting to Drought

Farmers in the area had already changed their cropping plans due to the drought. One farmer told AgWeb they decided to switch from cotton and corn to more sunflowers, as that plant has a deeper tap root and could hopefully tap into any moisture left deeper underground. Other farmers were forgoing water on some crops and taking a very calculated approach to which crops they would even irrigate this year. However, with record-high diesel prices, even that decision was a costly one this year.

“Most of West Texas remains exceptionally dry. Hopefully, this week’s rains will reduce that trend. Growers that did not apply residual herbicides pre-plant or at planting must rely on post-emergence control on weed flushes, which will likely come after the recent moisture,” Maeda said. “Growers should make their best effort to get weeds when they are still small to obtain the best results with post applications.”

The storms were a blessing in the form of rain, but it also brought severe weather. A massive tornado near Morton, Tex. which is 50 miles west of Lubbock, even shocked storm chasers. According to AccuWeather, the twister was just as wide as it was tall and was classified as a wedge tornado.

20 miles from my place pic.twitter.com/QLf3m9mhoQ
— Todd Lamberson (@LamboTexas) May 24, 2022

“Hail may have damaged early-planted fields west of Lubbock where a large tornado was reported,” said Maeda. “Growers have accelerated planting, as we approach the region’s first insurance deadlines. Those in northern counties are about a week before that deadline. Growers near Lubbock and further south have another two weeks to plant.”

Crop Outlooks

Other areas of Texas also received rain this week, but not enough to rid the drought situation or fully restore outlooks for crop production this year.

“Earlier this month, Wall received about .03 of an inch, which was the only measurable rain we had received until Monday and Tuesday. Growers caught a few showers north into the Rolling Plains. But a lot of it came in hard and fast in thunderstorms. It didn’t restore much of their soil moisture,” says Reagan Roland, Texas A&M AgriLife Assistant Professor, Extension Agronomist, San Angelo. Both furrow and drip-irrigated guys could catch up with an inch of rain. There’s a good chance for more rain this week, which will certainly help our cotton outlook.

USDA’s latest WASDE report showed despite 1-million more acres expected to get planted this year, a smaller U.S. cotton crop is expected. That’s largely due to USDA’s expecting the cotton crop abandonment to more than double. Production is forecast at 16.5 million bales, but harvested area is expected to fall 1.1 million acres to 9.1 million, largely due to issues with drought in the Southwest.

Cattle Consolidation

It’s not just crops impacted by the drought in Texas. Severe conditions are also prompting cattle producers to weigh tough decisions.

Drovers reports Amarillo, Tex., which has only received 1.5 inches of precipitation for all of 2022 through mid-May. Amarillo typically receives about 19 to 20 inches of rainfall annually. USDA’s May 16 Crop Progress report listed 76% of Texas pasture and range conditions as poor to very poor. The maps below show the comparison of drought designations in Texas for 2022 and last year.

The recent cover story in Drovers posed a looming question going forward: is if the beef cowherd will be reduced back to a level similar to 2014, which was 29.08 million head. The size of the herd then reduced available feeder cattle supplies and led to record prices for both feeder cattle and fed cattle.

“Over a six-year period from 2009 to 2014 we reduced the beef cowherd by about 3.5 million head, some of which was caused by drought and some of which was caused by economics,” Kansas State University economist Glynn Tonsor told Drovers. “Is it possible we’ll take another million cows out of the inventory? Absolutely it’s possible, and I believe it’s at least a 50/50 chance that it will happen in the next two years. But it will be because of a combination of drought and increased costs that are not directly part of drought.”

The latest Cattle on Feed report showed April feedlot placements were expected to fall 4.6% below the comparable year-ago figure, but USDA estimated placements down just 0.9% from last year. April marketings at 1.893 million head (down 2.2% annually) essentially matched expectations for a 2% drop. The May 1 feedlot inventory was 11.967 million head, up 2.0% from last year, whereas a 1.3% year-to-year drop was anticipated.

Desperate for Rain, Widespread Winter Storm May Not Be Enough to Cure Concerns in Areas of Texas

Thu, 03 Feb 2022 20:45:55 GMT

More than 70% of the country is still covered in drought. And while the latest winter storm was packed with needed moisture for some areas, it didn’t blanket every area needing moisture to restore depleted soils.

One Texas wheat farmer says rains and snows have been absent this year. Until this week, he hadn’t seen any measurable rainfall since he planted his wheat in November. And while those worries are sprouting concern for corn planting, which will start this month, he says his wheat crop is in very poor shape.

“It’s super dry, no subsoil moisture; it’s as dry as I’ve ever seen at this time of year at this stage,” says Todd Kimbrell, a farmer in Itasca, Texas. “In our last cold spell, we lost some tillers, some baby tillers. We have a real cold forecast coming Thursday morning. And if we don’t get moisture ahead of that, I’d say the wheat is pretty much toast. We’ve got cracks in our wheat, which maybe this has happened before, but I still don’t remember at this stage.”

Desperate for Moisture

The Kimbrells did see around an inch of moisture earlier in the week, but are now staring at sleet and brutally cold temperatures. He hopes the moisture was enough to save the wheat, but he says it’s too early to tell at this point.

“We planted early November, and we haven’t had a rain since right before we started that,” says Kimbrell. “We keep missing every little round of rain, and we’ll get just a trace, but in two weeks, we’ll be talking about planting corn here.”

Winter Wheat Worries

For wheat, the latest condition ratings for the crop fell last week, with the biggest hit in Kansas and Oklahoma.
In Kansas, just 30% of the crop is rated good to excellent, which is down 3 points from the start of the month.

In Texas, crop conditions are worse. None of the crop is rated to be in excellent condition, and only 6% is in good condition.

“I’m normally optimistic, but it is barely holding on,” says Kimbrell. “We’ve lost tillers, there’s a lot of dead foliage, burnt tips. It’s already stressed, and I just don’t see how it can handle the lower teens without moisture. And hopefully it’ll handle it with moisture.”

(Farm Journal)

When Farm Journal interviewed him, he was doing drainage work in a field, which he says is unheard of for this time of year. And top soil moisture maps confirm the dryness concerns.

“I would say we need at least an inch and a half of rain prior to corn planting,” says Kimbrell. “Most places we won’t be able to get the corn up right now, which has happened maybe once in my career. I’ve seen it pretty dry when we were planting, but it wasn’t anywhere near this dry. It’s getting pretty crazy.”

Kimbrell says heading into the growing season, conditions are drier than area farmers experienced in 2011/2012.

Devastating Drought: Texas Farmers Say 2021 Drought Already Rivals 2011

Fri, 16 Apr 2021 14:01:26 GMT

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows from North Dakota to Texas, all the way west to California, the most severe levels of drought didn’t ease across the U.S. this past week.

While 62% of the country is seeing some level of dryness, a 2-point improvement in a week, the most extreme level of drought grew, now covering more than 9% of the country.

(Farm Journal)

Texas Extremes

All levels of drought are painted across the Texas U.S. Drought monitor. Only 8% of the state is drought-free, with 8.5% in the exceptional drought category. Around one-quarter of the state is seeing extreme drought conditions.

West Texas farmers are preparing themselves for a possible devastating impact to the 2021 crop.

“We’re extremely dry,” says Blake Fennell, a farmer in Earth, Texas. “I would say we’re giving 2011 a run for its money, but we’re probably drier than 2011 at this point.”

2011 is a year that sticks in many farmers minds in the West Texas and Texas Panhandle area. That’s when consecutive days of 100-degree temperatures, with no rainfall, meant pivots couldn’t even make it a full circle without crops shriveling up. And the dryland crop was nil.

Too Dry to Plant

The West Texas farmer says his area hasn’t’ seen significant rain fall in nearly two years.

“We’ve still got to give that crop every chance we think we can get, but at the same time, we also can’t waste a lot of money on a crop that we don’t think we’re going to have going into it,” he says.

(Farm Journal)

Cotton Crop Worries

From monitoring inputs closely, to parked planters just waiting on Mother Nature to possibly produce moisture to even get the crop out of the ground, it’s a battle that farmers in the area say will be fought all year.

“If we don’t get any significant rainfall within the next two, three or four weeks, it’s going to have a very significant impact on the cotton crop in West Texas,” Fennell says . “A 1"or 1.5" rainfall event is not going to cure the problems we’re facing today.”

Fennell says the expectations for the West Texas cotton crop are also grim.

“Abandonment looks like it’s going to be pretty high this year, just for the simple fact that there is no ground moisture to get this crop emerged,” he says.

Parking Planters and Culling Cows: Early, Harsh Realities of North Dakota’s Growing Drought

Thu, 15 Apr 2021 15:54:18 GMT

North Dakota just endured its driest September to March ever on record, and the scars are starting to show. On Thursday, Governor Doug Burgum declared a state of emergency due to drought.

Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed while the entire state is experiencing dryness, 94% of the state is in the D3, or severe drought, which was a a 24-point jump in just a week.

(Farm Journal)

The dryness is already impacting planting decisions. USDA shows 92% of North Dakota’s topsoil is rated short to very short of moisture. With growing concerns about the lack of moisture, farmers are debating parking the planter for now.

(Farm Journal)

“It’s terribly dry,” says Kim Saueressig, a farmer in McCluskey, N.D. “We started seeding two days ago into some durum wheat stubble from last year, and hilltops were bone dry.”

Saueressig says the ground is so dry it’s almost like concrete, making it nearly impossible to plant.

“Yesterday, we just started seeding some durum wheat into pinto bean ground from last year, and it’s 10 times worse,” he adds. “I would have never thought that it would have been as dry as it is. As farmers, we’re eternal optimists, but when you have air seeders set for 2.5 to 3 inches deep to try to get it down to moisture with no till drills, and you have down pressure set up as high as you can get it, and you can only maybe get an inch into the ground, because it’s just concrete out there. One pass with the air seeder and it’s just powder behind it.”

https://t.co/qclCFMz40B

This is from yesterday. Thinking of parking them too
— Kim Saueressig (@SaueressigKim) April 8, 2021

Culling Cows

The U.S. Drought Monitor this week also revealed the drought is so severe in the western portion of the state that ranchers are already making the tough decision to destock livestock by culling cows.

“We’re at a point right now where they’re just starting to make their decisions,” says Larry Schnell, partner and manager of Stockmen’s Livestock Exchange in Dickinson, N.D.“Today’s sale day, and so we’ve sold about 100 head of red cows, and then starting next week, we’ll start seeing cow-calf pairs. Most people around here are not done calving yet. So once they’re done calving, then we’ll see these cow-calf pairs come to town, and it will be a pile of them.”

Schnell says based on conversations he’s already having, once calving season wraps up in the state, more cows will be culled by cattle producers making drastic decisions based on drought.

“I mean, most people are considering a minimum of 25% of the herd,” he says. “Some of them are talking 50%. In western North Dakota, we’ve really not seen any rain of any substantial amount since September 2019.”

Schnell says hay costs are climbing, and with pastures lacking moisture to become lush for feed, it’s a situation many North Dakota producers won’t be able to escape unless it rains.

“Pastures are terrible,” he adds. “It isn’t even greening up, and we’ve had probably the mildest winter we’ve had for a long, long time. If we had any moisture at all, our grass would be very lush right now because of the temperatures that we’ve had. But it’s not even greening up; anything that’s here is from last year. And most people left their cattle out on grass longer than normal, because of the fact that the weather was so nice. So even that, even if they did have some left, most of that is gone.“

Schnell says due to ongoing dryness, hay stocks are also low. And while more tough decisions will weigh on North Dakota cattle producers, some are already making the decision to cull cows due to drought.

“On our sale today, we’ll probably end up with about 4,200 cattle, and if it was a normal sale today, we’d had maybe 3,000,” says Schnell. “We’ve got like 700 cows and bulls today, which is very abnormal. Usually, we won’t see that until after calving. So, there are those who are starting to move sooner, but once we get into May, we’ve got a cow-calf pairs special scheduled for the first week of May. We’ll probably be selling pairs every week, and we might have to go to two days a week. We’ll sell 1000s of pairs if this continues.”

Never thought we would see this but parked both drills tonight because it’s too dry to get above 85% ground contact with @PrecisionPlant #SeederForce not to mention NH3 won’t seal and we can’t keep good ride over 80% in tall canola stubble . Needs to rain soon #ND @OfficialRFDTV pic.twitter.com/f3HwxzzPEi
— Travis P. Messer (@travismesser81) April 8, 2021

From ranchers to farmers weighing row-crop decisions, Saueressig says farmers have a little time to make final decisions, but are hopeful a little moisture will help them get the 2021 crop in the ground.

“It’s only April 8 right now, so we’re probably three weeks ahead of schedule,” he says. “We’re still going to keep on seeding. We did cut back fertilizer rates, though, just to keep the costs down. If we do get the rains, we can always emerge-apply, but there are more guys that I think are going to start planting this week. And keep on going, there will be a lot of decisions to be made. I don’t think anybody knows what to do.”

Related Stories:

North Dakota Farmers Need 200% of Normal Spring Rainfall to Undo Drought

Farmer Survives COVID-19, Hopes His Farm Will Too

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:55:48 GMT

Calving and planting season has been anything but typical for Matthew Raver and his family in Greensburg, Indiana. “I want to say it was March 26 that I got a fever,” said Raver. Raver can now reflect on his battle with COVID-19 and the fever that stuck with him for most of the next 12 days. “I lost 35 pounds while I was sick just because, I mean, I couldn’t really eat,” said Raver. His story started a couple of days earlier while trying to bottle feed a newborn calf. “Mama took a very negative view of that and she sent me flying about five feet,” said Raver. The protective cow’s head struck him squarely in the chest. The pain and soreness from that moment would mask the development of his Coronavirus symptoms for multiple days which, as he said, first presented itself as fever on March 26. “I had been around five different people that had type-A flu and so the assumption was I had the flu,” said Raver. Given his proximity to other confirmed flu cases, he hoped a round of Tamiflu and a few days rest would get him back out with the herd. Coronavirus wasn’t a mystery to his family. Raver started following the COVID-19 story in January and by February he hit his local grocery store hard in hopes of avoiding the panicked rush of shoppers. It turns out, even though he and his family were cautious they weren’t out of its reach. Greensburg%20IN%20Map.jpgBy Monday, March 30 Raver was still feeling poorly and his chest wouldn’t quit hurting. He stopped by a clinic in Shelbyville, Indiana. His flu test came back negative although he did test positive for strep throat and double pneumonia. “They gave me a healthy shot, and they sent me home with a Z-Pack,” said Raver. The next day, he felt better. By day three Matthew says he started to feel downright rotten and by Friday he was weak, dehydrated and headed for the hospital. “They gave me an IV and they said, you can still breathe and you’re way better than most of the people upstairs,” said Raver. “I went home and I felt pretty bad for another three or four days before my fever broke and I have been recovering since.” The battle wasn’t over. His wife Britney, pregnant and expecting their third child in August, also contracted the virus. “We were pretty worried about her and she had a fever for about three or four days,” said Raver. “Then she was fine.” He shares his experience as a cautionary tale. His 6’1” robust frame is proof it doesn’t just attack the fragile and frail.

“I got so weak that when I went to the hospital they had to push me in a wheelchair and they had to bring me out in a wheelchair because I didn’t have the strength to walk out of the building,” said Raver. “I lost 35 pounds while I was sick just because, I mean, I couldn’t really eat,” said Raver. The dehydration attacked his kidneys and his back ached so intensely he couldn’t get comfortable for days.

“The biggest thing we both had is you couldn’t taste anything,” said Raver. “You go to eat food and you couldn’t taste it.” Luckily his two kids remained healthy and symptom-free. He and his wife are both recovering and past the point of quarantine. They’re just ready to get their focus back on the farm. “The other day when I went out and did some physical work helping my dad for about an hour it wiped me out,” said Raver. “With having pneumonia, I got out of breath pretty quickly.” As calving season ends and planting arrives, Matthew can revel in the thought that COVID-19 didn’t take him or his loved ones. He now hopes it doesn’t claim their more than 150 year family legacy. “My only hope is the farm pays for itself and pays for the equipment,” said Raver.

Related Links:

U.S. House meets to pass $500 billion in coronavirus relief

Idled Ethanol Plants on Farmers’ Minds During Planting

Packing Plant Storyline is Complex, Nalivka Says

Favorable Spring Forecast

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:42:51 GMT

CattleFax predicts a cool start to planting and mild summer temperatures

Cattlemen at the 2015 Cattle Industry Convention heard an overall favorable spring weather forecast for cattle, crop and forage production.

(Click the image for larger view)

Persistent warm waters from California and Baja to Hawaii favor normal weather conditions in the Plains and Midwest this summer, said Art Douglas, professor emeritus, Creighton University, during the Cattle-Fax outlook session. Dry conditions might develop across the Southern Plains with this pattern, but the Midwest should avoid a hot dry summer.

However, with oceanic and atmospheric indices shifting away from El Niño, it is not surprising the January to March forecast shows a shift away from a classic wet, mild winter for much of the country.

“This has been the most up and down, hard-to-predict El Niño that I can ever remember,” Douglas said. “It’s supposed to peak in December, not in June.”

Even the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model is a bit confused—it doesn’t know if will be warm or if its going to be cold, he added.

The difference in this El Niño is that the warm waters that would develop in Southeast Asia are further west. “It looks like we are going to have two years of El Niño,” Douglas said. “This El Niño is simply slow.”

Looking forward to spring planting, grazing and forage production, Douglas pointed to areas of persistent drought and areas of recovery.

“Percent normal precip [over the past 90 days] has only been good in the far Southern Plains and Texas area, as well as the plains of eastern Montana. We have lingering drought throughout the western U.S. and portions of the Central Plains. California is still in extreme drought conditions. We are going to keep working on that for the next three or four months. Same way in the Southern Plains—even though we’re starting to see moisture there, drought is still considerably strong,” he said.

“As we get into spring, we are expecting a trough in the southern Pacific to get stronger,” Douglas said. “There is going to be a squeeze play between a trough on the coast and a trough in the eastern U.S. We’ll get good moisture into the Southwest, but its going to be harder for moisture to get into the Southern Plains.”

Temperatures in March should be warmer than normal in the West but cool all the way through the central part of the country. Cooler weather comes in again for April and warms again in May. “You’ll probably have some delayed planting due to the cool temperatures,” he said.

The Midwest is likely to remain drier than normal into spring with temperatures averaging below normal through February and possibly March. Drought conditions are likely to remain unchanged from northern California into the northern plains and upper Midwest.

First Thing Today: Crop Concerns Mount Amid Wet Forecast

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:32 GMT

Firmer start to the week... Corn futures are around a penny higher to start the week, while soybeans are up 3 cents. Wheat futures are also enjoying gains around 3 to 4 cents in the HRW wheat market and around 2 to 3 cents in the SRW and HRS wheat markets. The U.S. dollar index is down slightly, while crude oil futures are posting gains.

Crop concerns mount amid wet forecast... Concerns about getting crops planted/replanted are mounting after wet, cool weather kept many farmers out of the field late over the weekend and periodic showers are expected for the Midwest throughout the week. The National Weather Service forecast for May 27-31 calls for wet conditions in southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt, with normal conditions expected elsewhere. Cool temps are expected in the far western Belt, with heat likely in Ohio. Other areas of the Midwest should see normal temps. Meanwhile, a flash flood watch is currently in effect for Gulf Coast regions, and into Georgia after heavy weekend rains.

Week ahead features budget efforts, Branstad vote and health-care estimates... President Donald Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget proposals and, more importantly, the House Budget Committee’s are likely to include mandatory budget cuts, including agriculture subsidies. On the hearing front, topics include Environmental Protection Agency rulemaking, Russia, international trade, IRS oversight, Iran, atomic energy and more. The House will take up a measure easing permit requirements for pesticide usage, and the Senate is expected to approve Iowa GOP Governor Terry Branstad as the U.S. ambassador to China late today. On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office releases its analysis of the House-passed health-care reform bill.

ADM completes big port expansion in Brazil... The Brazilian unit of Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) recently announced it had completed a 33% expansion in its Santos port terminal’s export capacity. It will now be able to ship 8 MMT of grain per year. ADM is also analyzing a project to improve rail infrastructure around the port area, in collaboration with other operators. Brazil recently announced it would extend the duration of operating licenses, which has helped attract investment for such plans.

Analysts disagree as to whether Egypt will continue to buy U.S. wheat... Last week, Egypt purchased U.S. wheat for the first time since February 2015, as the combination of inexpensive HRW wheat supplies and lower freight prices helped the U.S. made prices competitive. Some traders say this business was more of a stopgap measure until Egypt’s favored Black Sea region supplies become more readily available. But others disagree, noting that if the U.S. can remain competitive, it could help us work through a hefty stockpile.

China to hike sugar import tax... China will introduce another tariff on sugar imports aimed at stemming imports that have “seriously damaged” its domestic industry. Currently, China allows 1.94 MMT of sugar imports at a 15% tariff, as per its World Trade Organization commitments, and imports beyond that are subject to a 50% tax. The new ruling will add an extra 45% tax to these imports, taking the total tax to 95% for fiscal year 2017. In FY 2018, that level will fall to 90% and in FY 2019 it will drop to 85%. While the added duty could slow imports from countries like Brazil and Thailand and help align sugar import prices with domestic ones, traders note the duties will likely increase smuggling of the sweetener through China’s southern border. In addition, some third-party nations that are excluded from the tariffs may begin shipping sugar from bigger producers looking to bypass the tariffs.

Details on U.S./China beef deal may be in place by end of June... Talks to restart U.S. beef exports to China have advanced quickly and final details should be in place by early June, USDA said Friday. This timeline should enable beef companies to to sign contracts with Chinese buyers that meet the deadline for shipments to begin by July 16. Ranchers are logging animals’ movement and are preparing to stop the use of beta-agonist growth drugs, as per the terms of the deal. The market access comes at a key time, as Brazil is dealing with corruption scandal after scandal, several of which involve its meat sector.

Cold Storage report out today... At 2:00 p.m. CT, USDA will release its update on the amount of frozen meet in the nation’s freezers as of April 30. Last month’s report showed frozen beef stocks lighter than expected at 464.469 million lbs. at the end of March, with frozen pork stocks at 555.052 million pounds, which was a bit higher than traders anticipated.

Cattle futures start week at double-digit discount to cash... Cash cattle trade took place at mostly $134 last week, which is roughly $10 above where June live cattle settled on Friday. While cash prices are expected to soften near-term, that spread is quite wide. Meanwhile, boxed beef prices pulled back late last week, confirming ideas the market was near a top. USDA’s Cold Storage Report will provide additional product market insight today.

Lean hog seasonals favor market bulls... Cash hog bids softened to close out a mixed week of price action. But we do not expect cash weakness to last since hog and pork production typically falls to annual lows in late June and early July. Plus, the Memorial Day to July Fourth period is peak grilling season.

Weekend demand news... South Korea bought 55,000 MT of soybean meal, likely from South America. Saudi Arabia bought 1.5 MMT of animal feed barley.

Today’s reports:

10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
2:00 p.m., Chickens and Eggs -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Cold Storage -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS

First Thing Today: House Clears FY 2017 Budget with Help of Democrats

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:26 GMT

Grain and soybean markets set back overnight... Corn futures saw two-sided trade overnight, but as of 6:30 a.m. CT most contracts are trading low-range and down 2 cents. Soybeans are also under pressure, with most contracts posting losses of 2 to 5 cents. Winter wheat futures are also down 2 to 5 cents, while spring wheat futures are fractionally to 2 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower, and crude oil futures are extending their slide.

Day 2 of Wheat Tour: Disease a concern... On Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council’s wheat tour, scouts traveling through the western third of Kansas found an average yield of 46.9 bu. per acre, down from last year’s 49.3 bu. per acre but up from the five-year average of 39.1 bu. per acre. But scouts were unable to evaluate many of the fields in that area of the state due to snow. And even before the crippling winter storm, wheat was struggling due to wheat streak mosaic virus, with Kansas Wheat’s Aaron Harries, VP of Research and Operations, saying the virus will impact yields more so than snow damage. He also said it was a bit too early to assess recent freeze damage. Scouts will travel from Wichita to Manhattan today, sampling fields in central and eastern Kansas. Final tour results and production guesses will be out this afternoon.

Industry group reports Oklahoma’s winter wheat crop has yield prospects similar to year-ago... Scouts with the industry group Plains Grains traveled into Oklahoma to sample fields on Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council’s tour. They estimated the state’s winter wheat crop would yield 33.7 bu. per acre this year, which would be roughly in line with what the group projected last year but down from USDA’s official 2016 estimate of 39.0 bu. per acre, which was a record. Plains Grains projected Oklahoma’s wheat crop will total 100.1 million bushels.

Export sales report expected to reflect still-strong soybean demand... USDA will release its weekly update on export sales activity at 7:30 a.m. CT. Traders expect the report to show corn sales ranging from 700,000 MT to 1.1 MMT, soybean sales between 400,000 MT and 800,000 MT, wheat sales of 200,000 MT to 550,000 MT, soymeal sales ranging from 50,000 MT to 250,000 MT and soyoil sales between 0 and 32,0000 MT.

House clears FY 2017 budget with help of Democrats... The House on Wednesday cleared a budget agreement that will keep the government operating for the rest of fiscal year ending Sept. 30. The House approved the measure 309-118. Democrats voted 178-15 in favor of the measure; Republicans voted 131-103 in support. The measure now moves to the Senate where it is expected to pass it as soon as today and be signed into law by President Donald Trump.

Global food prices continue to slide... The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO) Food Price Index stood at 168.0 points in April, which was a 3.1-point (1.8%) decline from March but still up 15.2 points (10%) from year-ago. This was the third month in a row where global food prices declined. FAO details that as was the case in March, all commodity indices except meat values declined last month. Global cereal production is likely to fall just 0.4% from last year’s record high, according to FAO. It details that the world’s 2017 wheat crop will likely total 740 MMT, down 20 MMT (2.6%) from last year’s record. This is basically steady with its projection last month.

Record-high wheat crop prospects for India... India’s 2017-18 wheat crop will likely hit a record 96.5 MMT, up 9.5 MMT from the year prior, projects a USDA attaché in the country. The post explains that favorable weather during key development stages will likely push up yields. Due to the expected production increase, the attaché expects imports to slow to 4 MMT in 2017-18, down 2 MMT from the year prior. None of that grain is expected to come from the United States.

Smaller Kazakhstan wheat crop likely for 2017-18... Kazakhstan will likely produce a 13 MMT wheat crop in 2017-18, down 2 MMT from the year prior, estimates a USDA ag attaché in the country. The post details that acreage is likely to fall in the coming marketing year. But despite the smaller crop size, the post expects exports to hold steady with the previous marketing year in 2017-18 at 7.0 MMT.

China’s Cofco planning major expansion in hog production... Cofco Corp. plans to aggressively expand its pig farm capacity by 2 million head to 5 million hogs per year by 2020, according to the company’s Vice President Ma Jianping. The state-owned company also says it will need to boost imports to meet growing demand.

Cash cattle prices tear higher... Cash cattle trade got underway at prices ranging from $144 to $147 across the Plains yesterday, up notably from last week when trade ranged from $135 to $140 for an average price of $136.22, according to USDA. The weekend snowstorm stressed animals and boxed beef prices continue to climb. This combination gave feedlots the advantage in this week’s negotiations, despite a big increase in showlists this week. Futures remain well below the cash, signaling another surge to the upside is possible today. And after yesterday’s strong gains limits are expanded.

Lean hogs also shoot higher on cash market gains... Lean hog futures have also benefited from gains in the cash market this week, which have stoked optimism supplies are tightening seasonally. In addition, traders are watching beef prices surge and speculating this could turn some consumers to pork over the near term -- especially if beef prices are slow to retreat, as has been the case in the past.

Overnight demand news... Tunisia issued an international tender to buy 75,000 MT of durum wheat from optional origins. Pakistani importers recently purchased around 65,000 MT of soybeans to be sourced from the U.S., as well as more than 100,000 MT of rapeseed likely to come from the Black Sea region.

Today’s reports:

7:30 a.m., Weekly Export Sales -- FAS
7:30 a.m., Drought Monitor -- USDA/NWS
8:00 a.m., Milk Cost of Production -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Latest U.S. Agricultural Trade Data -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Dairy Products -- NASS

First Thing Today: Cool and Wet 6 to 10-day Forecast for Much of the Corn Belt

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:26 GMT

Good morning!

Mild position evening overnight... Corn futures faced pressure overnight and most contracts are around a penny lower as of 6:35 a.m. CT. Soybean futures are fractionally to 1 cent higher after favoring the upside overnight. Winter wheat futures are down 3 to 4 cents, while spring wheat is just a penny or two lower. The U.S. dollar index is under pressure, while crude oil futures are enjoying strong gains.

Cool and wet 6 to 10-day forecast for much of the Corn Belt... The National Weather Service forecast for May 20-24 calls for above-normal precip across the Corn Belt and Plains, with the exception of the Dakotas, where normal to dry weather is anticipated. Temps are also expected to be cool across the western Belt and into the Plains. Warm temps are expected for southeast Illinois eastward. Rains is in the outlook for the northern and western Corn Belt this week, but producers in these areas have been able able to take advantage of near-ideal conditions leading up to and over the weekend.

NOPA expected to report further slowing of crush... Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) likely crushed 145.739 million bu. of soybeans in April, according to traders surveyed by Reuters. This would be down 7.321 million bu. from March and a 1.875 million-bu. drop from year-ago. Soyoil stocks are expected to come in around 1.777 billion lbs. at the end of April, which would be down from 1.815 billion lbs. at the end of March and 1.943 billion lbs. the year prior. The report will be released at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Attention remains on White House... The Senate is in today but House members return Tuesday. The biggest focus will probably remain on the White House and whether any new shakeups take place or statements are made that spark uncertainty. Leaders of the intelligence panels in both chambers say they are continuing to look into Russia’s activities in the 2016 election. Hearings on tap in the House will include issues for native Americans, FAA and aviation, South American energy, fiscal 2018 matters and the rural economic situation update. On the Senate side, various committees will hold confirmation hearings on nominees for sub-Cabinet positions at several agencies. Medicare, infrastructure, operating the government on less money and other policy matters will also be on tap.

Monsoon rains move in early... Monsoon rains hit India’s Andaman and Nicobar islands on Sunday, which was six days ahead of the norm, the domestic weather office reports. This comes after the head of India’s Meteorological Department last week said monsoon rains will likely be greater than previously expected as El Nino concerns have eased.

China’s subsidies for soybean growers to top those for corn producers... China will pay higher subsidies to soybean farmers than corn growers in its top grain producing provinces. The country is still working to draw down corn stocks after abandoning its state stockpiling system. Details on the subsidy levels in Heilonjiang and Liaoning provinces have not yet been released.

Disappointing economic signals out of China... China’s factory output climbed 6.5% from year-ago levels in April, down 1.1 percentage points from March, while fixed-asset investment climbed 8.9% for the first four months of the year, with both figures below expectations. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected factory output to climb 7.1% and fixed asset investment to climb 9.1%. This adds to recent data showing momentum is slowing in China after a strong first quarter.

Brazil investigating loans to JBS SA... Police in Brazil are investigation whether the state development bank BNDES issued fraudulent loans to JBS SA, the world’ s largest meatpacker. The two brothers, Joesley and Wesley Batista, that serve as chairman and chief executive at JBS have or will be brought in for questioning. The company issued a statement saying all investments it received from BNDES followed laws and regulations governing capital markets. The situation may put plans for a $1 billion initial public offering of a food processing unit on hold. Such plans were already delayed due to tepid investor interest and other scandals involving the company. The Batistas are barred from making any structural changes at JBS until the probe is concluded.

Renewed buying interest for cattle?... News that the Trump administration had reached a trade deal to reopen the Chinese market to U.S. beef by mid-July bolstered futures late last week. As the market gauges what trade potential this might entail, prices could climb even higher. In addition, futures start the week at a steep discount to last week’s cash cattle trade that took place at an average price around $138.

Lean hogs trading well above cash hog index... Strong processing demand has helped bolster cash hog prices, which has in turn lifted futures. But with the new front-month trading at nearly a $9 premium to the cash hog index, there is risk of some profit-taking near-term.

Weekend demand news... Turkey tendered to buy up to 180,000 MT of corn for animal feed. Iraq’s bought 50,000 MT of wheat from Australia, despite the U.S. having the lowest offer in the tender.

Today’s reports:

10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
11:00 a.m., Crush Report -- NOPA
2:00 p.m., Feed Grains Yearbook tables -- ERS
2:00 p.m., CE: Cattle 2016-2017 -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS

First Thing Today: USDA Data Sends Prices Lower Overnight

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:26 GMT

USDA data sends prices lower overnight... Corn and soybean futures softened overnight in response to USDA’s report showing planting of these crops was more advanced than the market anticipated. Corn is down a penny or two, while soybeans are fractionally to 1 cent weaker. Wheat futures also softened amid just a small downtick in condition ratings and a surge in spring wheat planting over the past week. While SRW and HRS wheat futures are mostly 2 cents lower, the HRW wheat market is down 4 cents. The U.S. dollar index is posting solid losses, while crude oil futures are slightly higher.

PF CCI reflects modest dip in HRW and SRW ratings... When USDA’s winter wheat crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW wheat crop fell 2.55 points to 326.72 points, with Kansas actually notching a slight increase in ratings from last week. The SRW wheat crop fell 1.91 points to 364.37 points. While the SRW wheat crop is rated just 4 points (roughly) under year-ago, the HRW wheat crop is down more than 34 points from last year at this point. Get more details .

Wilbur Ross, Mexico’s Guajardo agree to continue talks on sugar trade... Mexico Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo met with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross in Washington, with Guajardo saying it is important to find a solution that maintains balance in the sweetener market. The two officials agreed to “maintain continuous and open dialogue in the coming days,” according to a statement from the Mexico’s ministry. Guajardo and Ross also discussed the timing of North American Free Trade Agreement talks after the confirmation of Robert Lighthizer as U.S. Trade Representative.

Cordonnier takes preliminary guess at U.S. yields... Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier took a preliminary stab at estimating the size of the 2017-18 crops, noting that the “mildly problematic” start to the growing season has him beginning with “somewhat conservative” corn yield estimate of 169 bu. per acre, which would still be the third highest yield on record. He projects a national average. soybean yield of 49 bu. per acre, which would be the second highest on record after last year’s 52.1 bu. per acre. “This is just the first ‘guess’ of the growing season and as we all know, these yield estimates are going to change as the growing season progresses,” Cordonnier warns.

Strong yields in northern Argentina prompt consultant to raise production estimate... Cordonnier now says Argentina will likely produce a 56.5 MMT soybean crop in 2016-17, up 1.5 MMT from his estimate last week thanks the “excellent soybean yields” from northern areas of the country. He also upped his Argentine corn crop estimate by 2 MMT to 39 MMT, noting good yields in northern areas. He made no change to his Brazilian soybean or corn crop estimates that stand at 111 MMT and 92 MMT, respectively.

Monsoon rains to hit India’s coast ahead of schedule... Monsoon rains will likely arrive on India’s southern Kerala coast on May 30, two days ahead of schedule, according to K.J. Ramesh, director general of the India Meteorological Department. Forecasters have upped the amount of accumulation they expect this rainy season to bring amid fading of El Nino concerns.

Canada’s revenue cap on major railways will reportedly remain in place... Canada’s Minister of Transport is set to unveil draft legislation today that sources cited by Reuters indicate will maintain a revenue cap on western grain that Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. haul for export. This cap has been in place since 2000 and is meant to balance the market power of the two big railways with that of farmers and grain companies. A study ordered by Canada’s previous government recommended phasing out the revenue cap program that railways oppose.

Cattle futures lower on concerns a top is near for cash and product markets... Cattle futures faced heavy pressure Monday amid ideas the product and cash markets are near a top with Memorial Day buying winding down. Boxed beef prices were mixed to start the week and movement was light. Plus, showlist estimates are up a net 7,000 head this week. In addition, traders are skeptical that China will truly begin importing beef from the U.S. by mid-July, which led to some profit-taking to start the week.

Hogs continue to consolidate... Choppy cash hog bids and light pork movement Monday led to mixed price action in the lean hog market. But traders remain hopeful that high beef prices will shift some demand to pork and that seasonal supply tightening will keep the cash market pointed higher. Cash hog bids were mixed to start the week.

Overnight demand news... Japan is seeking a total of 115,491 MT of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada.

Today’s reports:

11:00 a.m., Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook: May 2017 -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: May 2017 -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Turkey Hatchery -- NASS

First Thing Today: Freezing Temps and Flooding Bolsters Markets

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:22 GMT

Weather concerns lift futures... Wheat futures surged amid weather concerns overnight, with the HRW wheat market leading to the upside with gains of 9 to 14 cents. SRW is up 7 to 10 cents, while HRS wheat is up 6 to 8 cents. Corn futures also rallied on weather concerns overnight, with most contracts up 4 to 5 cents. Soybeans are 5 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. dollar index is marginally higher, while crude oil futures are down slightly.

Freezing temps and flooding bolsters markets... Temperatures dropped below freezing in Kansas, Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and Colorado over the weekend. Plus the winter wheat crop is more advanced than normal, with 32% of the crop headed as of last Sunday, leaving it more at risk of damage. But snowfall accompanied the cold blast, which should protect against widespread damage. However, World Weather Inc. notes that ongoing wet weather could lead to disease concerns. Meanwhile, storms over the weekend resulted in major to record flooding from eastern Oklahoma through northern Arkansas, Missouri, southern Illinois and into central Indiana, according to the National Weather Service. Drier weather is expected this week, but it will take time for fields to dry out enough for a resumption of planting.

Congress reaches budget deal without cotton and dairy farm bill language... Lawmakers reached a budget agreement for the remaining months of fiscal year 2017, which ends Sept. 30. Cotton and dairy farm program language did not make it in the final budget package. Instead, included in a list of congressional directives accompanying the spending deal is a request that the USDA secretary within 60 days issue a report on administrative options for providing financial relief to cotton growers, and also offer immediate assistance to dairy producers. The omission of cotton and dairy language was because Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) did not agree with the dairy plan worked out by Representative Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) and House Ag Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas). Sources say this does not bode well for coming farm bill debate.

Hearing on Branstad, FOMC meeting and jobs report some highlights of the week... This week the Senate will hold the nomination hearing for Iowa Governor Terry Branstad to be the U.S. Ambassador to China, with other sessions on broadband infrastructure, the economy and private-sector growth and flood insurance. The Senate will also consider the nomination of President Donald Trump’s pick for the Securities & Exchange (SEC) chairman. On May 6, the Senate Agriculture Committee heads to Michigan for a farm bill hearing. At the White House, Trump will meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on Thursday. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet May 2-3. No change in interest rate policy is expected at the meeting. The April jobs report will arrive Friday

Perdue to provide more school meal flexibility... USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue will unveil an interim rule today designed at providing flexibility for school meals. He will make the announcement at Catoctin Elementary School in Leesburg, Virginia. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) will also be in attendance. The former Obama administration’s rules -- which require strict calorie limits; the near-elimination of salt; multiple servings of raw vegetables, fruits, and whole grains; tight restrictions on meat and fat, and bans on everything from vending-machine sweets to bake sales -- were meant to combat childhood obesity when they were imposed in 2012.

Commitments of Traders data shows record-setting bearish attitudes among funds... When combining corn, winter and spring wheat, soybeans, soyoil and soymeal futures, hedge funds and other money managers held an all-time record net short position of 464,376 futures and options contracts the week ended April 25, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. This also marks the first time ever when money managers were bearish on all seven of these contracts at the same time. The overwhelming bearish sentiment signals a corrective rally is likely ahead.

June futures take over lead-month status at sharp discount to cash... While momentum is clearly to the upside, the live and feeder cattle futures are severely overbought. On the other hand, June live cattle, which are now the new front month, are at least $11 below the low end of last week’s cash action. And with dressed cattle weighs on the decline, marketings are clearly current. Further, wintry weather on the Plains this weekend stressed livestock.

Watching the cash hog market after last week’s strong technical performance... Last week’s V-bottom favors followthrough buying in the lean hog market. But unless cash prices strengthen, momentum could soon fade, leaving the market as risk of profit-taking. While there were some firmer cash hog bids at times last week, the cash hog index remains in a pronounced downtrend.

Weekend demand news... There is no business to report.

Today’s reports:

8:00 a.m., Commodity Costs and Returns -- ERS
10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
2:00 p.m., Cotton System -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Fats & Oils -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Flour Milling -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Flour Milling - Ann. -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Grain Crushings -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS

First Thing Today: Farmers Take Advantage of Planting Window

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:22 GMT

Dollar drop spurs short-covering to start the week... Corn futures are up 1 to 2 cents amid some corrective buying to start the week. Soybeans also enjoyed short-covering overnight and most contracts are currently up 6 to 7 cents. Winter wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher, while spring wheat is up fractionally to a penny. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower today, while crude oil futures are firmer.

Lawmakers to vote on Perdue, Trump to meet with ag stakeholders... Lawmakers return to Washington after their two-week spring break -- the Senate today and the House on Tuesday. First up for the Senate will be a vote on the nomination of Sonny Perdue to be USDA secretary. The chamber is expected to easily approve Perdue. Lawmakers must also come to terms on how to keep the government funded beyond Friday when the current funding mechanism expires. President Donald Trump will host a roundtable discussion with farmers and will sign an executive order to protect and provide relief for rural America on Tuesday. He will also release his own tax plan as early as Wednesday. Get more details about what’s ahead .

Farmers take advantage of planting window... Drier weather over the weekend allowed many farmers across the Corn Belt to get into the field, with more planting efforts likely today before rains move into the lower and eastern Corn Belt on Tuesday and Wednesday. The National Weather Service forecast for April 29 to May 3 calls for cool, wet conditions across the Midwest, which would also slow planting efforts. Meanwhile, World Weather Inc. reports some hard freezes occurred in Colorado and Nebraska over the weekend, with light freezes reported in Kansas and the western Texas Panhandle. It details that this likely burned back the vegetative development of the crop, but permanent damage was unlikely.

Vomitoxin increasingly a concern... The fungus vomitoxin has increasingly been an issue with the 2016 corn crop in Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, and parts of Iowa and Michigan, according to the food testing firm Neogen Corp. Neogen reports a 29% jump in global sales for toxin tests, including strong demand for vomitoxin tests, in the third fiscal year quarter. Heavy rain before and during harvest led to the storage of some wet grain last fall, plus the record size of the crop meant some of it was stored on the ground or in other makeshift ways. Poultry and pork farmers are having to test their grain to ensure the toxin will not sicken animals and it has some grain processors searching for alternative sources of feed supplies. Indeed, vomitoxin is reportedly the reason a shipment of corn from Paraguay is headed for the U.S. next month.

Attaché expects soybean production in Paraguay to decline from this year’s record... Paraguay’s 2016-17 soybean crop will likely hit a record 10.2 MMT due to “elevated crop area and record yields -- supported by good weather throughout the season,” says a USDA ag attaché in the country. The post expects the country to export 6.250 MMT of that tally. Looking ahead to 2017-18, the attaché expects the crop to fall to 9.40 MMT with exports projected at 5.55 MMT.

Ukraine’s wheat crop off to a strong start... Ukraine’s agriculture minister estimates that around 6.2 million hectares have been planted to wheat this year and most of the crop is in good condition. Therefore, the official says that the 2017 wheat crop should top 24 MMT.

Trade could book some profits in cattle... Live cattle futures could see some profit-taking to start the week after the cattle complex posted sharp gains last week in response to higher cash action, plus placements were well above expectations in Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report. The number of cattle on feed and marketings did come in basically in line with expectations, however.

Bearish attitudes show little sign of waning in lean hogs... While lean hog futures are oversold, that does not guarantee much (if any) of a rebound over the near-term, as the cash hog market remains under pressure. The product market has also done little to enthuse traders about spring grilling demand. Summer futures contracts are signaling expectations for a more subdued seasonal rally from late spring to early summer. USDA’s Cold Storage Report will provide some insight as to demand strength this afternoon.

Weekend demand news... A group of private Israeli buyers issued international tender to buy up to 100,000 MT of corn, 45,000 MT of feed what and 30,000 MT of feed barley to be sourced from optional origins, according to European traders. Algeria bought a nominal 50,000 MT of durum wheat.

Today’s reports:

10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
23:00 p.m., Cold Storage -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS

First Thing Today: Trump to Unveil Tax Cut Proposals Today

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:22 GMT

Firmer tone for grains overnight... Corn futures favored the upside overnight and as of 6:30 a.m. CT most contracts are around a penny higher. Soybeans are trading midrange and mostly around a penny lower. SRW and HRW wheat futures are around 1 to 2 cents higher, while HRS wheat futures are up 4 to 5 cents. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher, while crude oil futures are slightly lower.

Trump to unveil tax cut proposals today... U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to unveil a proposal to cut corporate taxes on U.S. companies’ foreign profit and slash the top tax rate on so-called pass-through businesses to 15%. Trump’s tax plans include a proposal for a one-time levy of 10% on the more than $2.6 trillion in earnings U.S. companies hold offshore, according to a White House official familiar with the plan. The president’s move to cut the corporation tax to 15% in the U.S. is seen as an opening gambit in negotiations as the drop in receipts would boost the deficit too much to be sustainable.

Cold temps move into winter wheat country... The National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas. And World Weather Inc. notes that temperatures are likely to remain below average across much of the HRW Wheat Belt through early next week. Major damage is not anticipated, but the situation bears watching. Cold, wet weather is also expected to slow spring wheat planting efforts. In fact, a winter weather advisory is in effect for northern Minnesota and nearby areas of North Dakota and South Dakota.

Ukraine’s grain exports surged last month... Ukraine exported 4.54 MMT of grain in March, up 52% from the month prior, says UkrAgroConsult. The surge was due in part to record-high corn shipments of 3.1 MMT last month. Wheat shipments also climbed from 840,000 MT in February to 1.05 MMT in March. For the first nine months of the 2016-17 marketing year, Ukraine has exported 34.2 MMT of grain. Looking ahead, the consultancy says that a strong harvest would likely prompt it to raise its 2017-18 grain export forecast by 700,000 MT to 39.5 MMT.

Mexico considers plan to boost ethanol use in fuel... The Mexican Association of Sustainable Transportation has submitted a plan to the country’s energy regulator, CRE, to increase the amount of ethanol that can be blended into motor fuel from 5.8% to 10.0%. The industry group explains this would power job growth and reduce air pollution. But critics say that the fuel additive methyl tertiary butyl ether is better at reducing air contaminants and that corn production can lead to deforestation. CRE commissioners are not expected to make a decision on this until November.

China considering special sugar import duties as part of antidumping probe... China is reportedly considering tacking special import duties on sugar as part of an antidumping probe to help domestic producers who are struggling to compete with cheap imports from Brazil and others. Its first ruling in the probe is in due May 22. If approved, the proposal would introduce a 45% duty this fiscal year, followed by an added 40% tax in FY 2018 and a 35% tariff in FY 2019, according to a document circulated by China’s Dairy Industry Association. This is in addition to a 50% tax that is currently tacked on all sugar brought in outside of quotas.

Beef prices on the rise... Boxed beef prices extended gains on Tuesday, with Choice cuts up 34 cents and Select values $1.98 higher. Also encouraging, movement picked up to 141 loads. While showlist numbers are up this week, ongoing gains in the product market signal that any decline in the cash market this week will likely be limited. April live cattle are trading in line with the low end of last week’s cash action.

Are cash hogs near a low?... Pork movement improved to 348.83 loads on Tuesday on a 65-cent dip in the pork cutout value. All cuts except ribs softened. Nevertheless, futures posted strong gains yesterday as traders were encouraged by firmer cash hog bids in the Iowa/Minnesota market on Monday -- the first in roughly three weeks. But given recent cash weakness, traders will wait for more improvement before assuming the market is working on a low. Cash prices softened in the western Corn Belt but strengthened in the eastern Belt yesterday, according to the National Daily Hog and Pork Summary.

Overnight demand news... Turkey bought 44,000 MT of animal feed corn to be sourced from the EU and Moldavia. Iraq issued an international tender to buy at least 50,000 MT of wheat from the U.S., Canada or Australia. Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 67,000 MT of soft milling wheat. Taiwan bought around 65,000 MT of corn, likely from Brazil. Japan received no offers in its simultaneous buy and sell auction seeking 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley. South Korea purchased 135,000 MT of feed wheat from optional origins.

Today’s reports:

9:30 a.m., Weekly Ethanol Production -- CIA
2:00 p.m., Broiler Hatchery -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Poultry Slaughter -- NASS

First Thing Today: Corn from Paraguay Reportedly Headed for the U.S. in May

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:22 GMT

Firmer tone overnight... Corn futures are up 1 to 2 cents in most contracts as of 6:30 a.m. CT after favoring the upside overnight. Soybean futures are up 2 to 4 cents, which is near the top of the market’s two-sided overnight trading range. Winter wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher amid some concerns about flooding on the Central Plains. Trade was limited in spring wheat overnight. The U.S. dollar index is down slightly, while crude oil futures are posting modest gains after yesterday’s plunge.

Export sales report expectations... USDA will release its weekly update on export sales activity at 7:30 a.m. CT. Traders expect the report to show corn sales ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.3 MMT, soybean sales between 400,000 MT and 800,000 MT, wheat sales of 350,000 MT to 750,000 MT, soymeal sales ranging from 50,000 MT to 350,000 MT and soyoil sales falling between 8,000 MT and 42,000 MT.

Corn from Paraguay reportedly headed for the U.S. in May... A shipment of corn from Paraguay is due to arrive at the U.S. port of Wilmington, North Carolina next month, according to a U.S. grain trader. Thomson Reuters Eikon shipping data shows the vessel is moored at Brazil’s Paranagua port and it’s scheduled to arrive in the states by May 20. If the vessel is loaded to its full 61,000 MT capacity, the shipment would be the biggest ever U.S. import of corn from Paraguay. The last time the U.S. brought in corn from the country was in 2015. The unnamed grain trader indicated that high levels of vomitoxin in U.S. stockpiles may be the reason for the import.

Brazil offers subsidy program to stimulate domestic corn buys... Brazil’s government says it will offer subsidies totaling up to 500 million reals ($158.72 million) to help producers market their large crop in 2016-17. Corn buyers will compete in auctions for grants that they would receive when they close deals to buy the grain in the domestic market. Producers would receive at least the minimum guaranteed price set by the government each year. While the program is aimed at boosting domestic sales of corn, some traders have in the past used these grants to help finance exports deals.

Will slow corn planting as of mid-April draw down final acreage?... As of April 16, corn planting was just 6% complete, three points behind the five-year average pace. And soggy weather this week has kept many farmers out of the field. Already, this has spurred talk that all of farmers’ intended corn plantings of 89.996 million acres may not be seeded. And this talk is not unfounded. Jim Young, a Reuters market analyst, points out that over the past 20 years there were 12 years when corn planting progress lagged the long-term average pace as of mid-April. For half of those twelve years, final corn acres came in more than 1% below March intentions. And in only two of the 12 years did final acreage increase from March.

Japan’s reliance on corn in feed rations diminishes... Japan’s use of corn in animal feed stood at 45.9% in February, down 0.2 points from the month prior and 0.3 points below year-ago. On the other hand, its use of wheat in feed rations stood at 1.9%, steady with the month prior but up 0.3 points from February 2016 levels. Sorghum usage is down 0.6 points from year-ago at 2.3%, while barley usage was steady with February 2016 levels at 3.4%.

EPA plans on aggressive use of employee buyouts... EPA is keeping a freeze on hiring and is preparing to offer buyouts and early retirement to employees to reduce the agency’s workforce. An agency memo said the agency plans to complete the buyout program by Sept. 30, the end of the current fiscal year. While the White House lifted a government-wide hiring freeze last week, the memo said any hiring at EPA will be permitted only on a case-by-case basis with approval by the agency’s acting deputy administrator.

Higher cash cattle trade... Cash cattle trade was fairly active on the Plains yesterday with most trade falling between $130 and $132, which was up $2 to $4 from the bulk of last week’s action. Given tighter showlist numbers and recent boxed beef price gains, this is not surprising. But traders’ reluctance to push cattle futures aggressively higher until the past two weeks means futures are still playing catch up and are below the cash market. Such efforts may be hindered by the overbought condition of the market, however.

Lean hogs remain under pressure, but rebound likely ahead... Weight data yesterday confirmed supplies are a bit backed up in major producing regions, which continues to weigh on cash and thus futures prices. But a seasonal rebound should be ahead. An effort to correct the technically oversold condition of nearby contracts could help get this underway.

Overnight demand news... South Korea’s Korean Feed Association bought around 120,000 MT of corn from optional origins. Its Feed Leaders Committee bought around 60,000 MT of corn from optional origins. South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc. bought around 70,000 MT of corn to be sourced optionally from the U.S. or South America; it also purchased 203,000 MT of corn from optional origins. Turkey bought 65,000 MT of corn from the European Union and Serbia. Japan bought 70,275 MT of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and 25,280 MT from Canada.

Today’s reports:

7:30 a.m., Weekly Export Sales -- FAS
7:30 a.m., Drought Monitor -- USDA/NWS
7:30 a.m., Extended Weather Outlook -- NWS
2:00 p.m., Livestock Slaughter -- NASS
2:00 p.m., Milk Production -- NASS