Milk Prices - News & Analysis

Dairy and Beef-on-Dairy Cattle Sizzling Market Has Found a New Balance

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 14:15:31 GMT

The dairy cattle market, according to Jake Bettencourt, manager of Turlock Livestock Auction Yards (TLAY) Video Sales, has been experiencing a period of steadiness over the past six to eight months. While the trend over the past two years has shown a rise in the value of dairy replacements and beef-on-dairy cattle, the market seems to have found its balance. This positive stability is crucial for the dairy industry, allowing for growth and expansion, particularly in the Midwest and upper Midwest regions.

According to Bettencourt, dairy replacements prices seem to have settled, however, beef on dairy crosses not so much.

“The trend for the last two years or better has been the value of these dairy replacements were getting higher and higher,” Bettencourt says. “And for the last six to eight months, it just feels like we’ve kind of found a place to settle.”

A Conservative Approach to Growth
Internally, at TLAY, there has been an ongoing debate about whether to be cautious or optimistic about this upward trend. Bettencourt says there is confidence in the market’s potential to maintain its current levels for another 12 to 18 months. This optimism is based on the demand and supply dynamics observed, especially when it comes to younger replacement cattle, which appear to be valued at a high level.

“There is a growing demand towards younger dairy heifers,” he shares. “So, there’s growth on the horizon.”

This growth matches the need to supply the $8 billion dollars in processing investments forecast to come online in the next few years. Bettencourt says as long as cull cows and beef-on-dairy calves stay at the level they are at, the dairy replacement market will continue to perform well.

“I know it’s hard to wrap your head around it for some people, but these replacements really aren’t that high in relation to everything else,” he says.

Choices and Strategies for Producers
For dairy producers, the decision between focusing on beef-on-dairy calves or concentrating on growing replacements remains complex. Both strategies aim to maximize profitability and maintain herd health. While feed costs have been relatively reasonable, milk prices are not at level that generate significant profit, thus pushing producers to rely on cattle sales to support their operations.

“We’ve talked to some producers who are starting to make a few more dairy heifers,” Bettencourt shares, noting the good corn crop on the horizon will help keep feed costs relatively inexpensive. “However, when you throw in these cull cow and beef-on-dairy checks, that is true income and adding profitability to dairies.”

Holstein Versus Jersey: A Demand Perspective
When it comes to breed preferences, Bettencourt says Holsteins seem to be in slightly higher demand compared to Jerseys.

“There is a higher value of a beef-on-dairy calf that comes out of a Holstein compared to a beef-on-dairy calf that comes out of a Jersey or a Jersey cross, and there seems to be more availability in Jerseys than Holsteins right now,” he shares. “Holsteins are in slightly higher demand right now.”

Bettencourt says this has been the case for a while now. He also says there still is plenty of interest in Jersey and Jersey cross cattle, stating Jersey fresh cows and springers range from $2,700 to $3,200 and Holsteins anywhere from $3,500 to $4,100.

“In fact, I would say, of the expansions that we’re aware of, and we’ve been talking to customers about filling some of those procurements of replacements, it feels like there’s more growth and there’s more expansion where folks are looking for Jerseys and/or crosses,” he says.

Enthusiasm Remains
While challenges remain for those involved in the dairy industry, there is an overarching sense of optimism especially on the income derived from cull cows and beef-on-dairy calves.

Bettencourt says Jersey beef-on-dairy calves are going from $750 to $900 for day-old calves and Holstein beef-on-dairy calves are going anywhere from $1,200 to $1,350. He says a sale that they worked with sold dairy-on-beef cattle that weighed 550 lb. that went as high as $4.31 per pound.

“I mean, it seems like every other week there’s a new record,” he says. “It’s certainly supplementing income for these dairy producers.”

Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company emphasizes the production of beef-on-dairy crossbreds is critical for maintaining the industry’s current output levels.

“It is something that needs to be in every herd,” he says.

As the dairy industry continues adapting to market demands, there is hope that current positive trends will benefit producers for the foreseeable future. This balance offers a promising outlook for growth and stability within the industry.

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Corn Falls But Soybeans Hold Together: Did Cattle Top?

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 22:19:46 GMT

Grain and livestock markets close mixed Thursday.

Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says corn ended lower on a combination of profit taking and farmer selling after running into chart resistance in the March around $4.50.

Weekly exports were a bit disappointing at only 37.3 million bu. which was down 45% from last week and 32% from the four week average.

The weakness in corn pulled the wheat market lower, plus wheat saw some technical selling and profit taking.

Weekly exports for wheat were also disappointing at 10.7 million bu.

Soybeans managed to hold their own despite lower feed grains, still holding chart support and with some unwinding of corn, soybean spreads.

He says support also came from USDA reporting another 12.3 million bu. flash export sale of soybeans to unknown destinations.

Weekly exports for soybeans were below last week at 43.1 million bu. but Doherty says commitments are still 12% ahead of last year showing solid demand.

Doherty says traders also realize that South America’s record crop is not made just yet and won’t be until January so its holding slight premium.

Live cattle futures made new highs for the move with sharply higher cash and cutouts but then failed.

The volume of fed cash trade has been steady to $3 higher.

However, Thursday dressed sales in the North ranged from $302 to $312 in the North and there were live sales at mostly $194 to $196.

Cutouts were also sharply higher at noon, yet futures ended lower.

So is this reversal a sign the market topping?

Doherty says it may be too early to tell.

Milk futures soared on Thursday with January Class III milk closing up $.73 at $20.25 per hundred weight with the February contract $.65 at $20.14.

Doherty says it was a combination of short covering and higher cheese prices.

However, he isn’t confident the rally has much upside as he thinks the market will be capped by increasing cow numbers and milk production.

“When milk prices hit their highs earlier in year it was due to perceived production losses due to H5N1 in the dairy herd. The only way we could retest those areas is with a big surge in demand,” he explains.

Beef-on-Dairy Impacts the Overall Dairy Heifer Discussion

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 20:08:11 GMT

While spring has arrived, higher milk prices have not. The immediate concerns on most producers across the U.S. is just how long low milk prices will continue.

Independent dairy financial advisor, Gary Sipiorski, says producers are trying to find ways to lower expenses without impacting herd health or milk production. He shares that producers need to revisit their heifer inventory and calculate just how many heifers they will need in the coming year.

“They cost $2,200 to raise or more,” Sipiorski says. “Beeding for beef right now is paying up. Some producers are even thinking of selling all their heifers. That is a serious decision.”

The high prices of beef are boosting dairy producers bottom line, as week-old beef crosses are going for a pretty penny. Sipiorski says producers are now trying to decide how long they should keep a cow.

“Three, four, five lactations,” he says. “These cows are paid to produce a lot of milk, however, they are still worth a lot of money as beef. And, you cannot afford to have any of them to die on the farm.”

At the Dairy Calf & Heifer Association Annual Meeting in Westminster, Colo., Dr. Geoff Smith, dairy technical services veterinarian with Zoetis, says that beef on dairy has been a blessing and a curse to dairy producers.

“It has been a blessing for many reasons, the biggest one being the extra income it has brought to dairies,” he says. “Many farms have fallen so in love with producing beef-on-dairy that they don’t have the number of replacement heifers needed. And they’re not able to make proper culling decisions because they don’t have the numbers of replacements in the pipeline.”

Although, according to Jim Salfer with University of Minnesota, producers do not seem to have an appetite for increasing the number of heifer calves that they are raising.

“A lot of it is because of the cash flow situation on farms and the extreme value of these crossbred calves,” he says. “Most of the farms that I work with have no appetite for even raising a few extra heifers.”

Salfer points out that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) will be crucial to watch to see if that results in additional culling.

“One other potential fly in the ointment is if states start restricting movement because of the HPAI breakout,” he says. “It seems like mortality levels are low, so that may not be likely.”

Low milk prices force producers to calculate how to generate extra profit and many have found through beef-on-dairy and cull cows checks. The key for producers going forward will be maintaining the right number of lactating cows going through the parlor and ensuring the right number of replacement heifers can keep that pipeline full. This is an on-going conversation that will continue to unfold as long as the beef market stays hot.

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2021 Livestock Market Outlook Roundup

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

The editors at AgWeb.com are looking at experts’ projections for a variety of commodities in 2021 to help you succeed and be profitable in the coming year. Here’s a look at what analysts are expecting for the upcoming year in the protein segments.

2021 Beef Outlook: New Challenges, New Opportunities

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Disruptions to the beef industry from the COVID-19 pandemic will likely linger into 2021, but the result may not be all bad for producers, Don Close, animal protein analyst at Rabo AgriFinance told AgriTalk.

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U.S. Pork Outlook: Will 2021 Be Different?

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Five respected economists in the pork industry share their insight on what’s ahead in 2021 and ways producers can make the most of new opportunities ahead.

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2021 Milk Price Outlook: Throw the Crystal Ball Out the Window

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Government intervention creates a level of uncertainty that makes a 2021 milk price forecast nearly impossible.

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USDA Announces Fifth Round in Farmers to Families Food Box Program

Tue, 05 Jan 2021 15:59:31 GMT

On Monday, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue announced the USDA will purchase an additional $1.5 billion worth of food for nationwide distribution through the Farmers to Families Food Box Program.

According to a USDA release, the program has distributed more than 132 million food boxes in support of American farmers and families affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This new round of Farmers to Families Food Boxes will go a long way in helping American families access nutritious and healthy meals as we recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Thanks to the President Trump’s leadership, we have helped tens of millions of families and countless farmers with this program,” Secretary Perdue said in the release. “President Trump has committed to helping the American people recover and rebuild and this program helps American families get back on solid ground by ensuring they receive the nutritious food they need during these difficult times.”

The additional funding for the program was included in the COVID-19 relief package as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act that passed December 21, 2020. In this fifth round of purchases, USDA will again purchase combination boxes to ensure all involved recipient organizations have access to fresh produce, dairy products, fluid milk and meat products. Seafood products will also be included in this round.

The Farmers to Families Food Box program is part of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP), created in response to the pandemic. Using authority provided by the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, USDA said it has partnered with national, regional and local distributors, whose workforces were significantly impacted by the closure of restaurants, hotels and other food service businesses, to purchase and distribute agricultural products to Americans in need.

“With over 3.3 billion meals distributed to families across this nation, I am proud to share that thanks to the Trump administration’s efforts, the Farmers to Families Food Box Program has an additional $1.5 billion to continue to feed families in need, provide employment and support our small farmers. During these unprecedented times, this Administration will continue to fight for American families and will always put them first!” says Advisor to the President Ivanka Trump.

The fourth round of the program purchased a total of $463 million worth of food. By the end of the third round on Oct. 31, USDA purchased more than $3.566 billion worth of food. In the second round, USDA purchased more than $1.781 billion of food. The first round of purchases saw more than 35.5 million boxes delivered in the first 45 days.

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