Iran

Diesel Prices Are Breaking Records Across Multiple States, And Relief May Not Come in 2026

Wed, 06 May 2026 12:53:36 GMT

On Tuesday, President Trump stated that high gasoline prices are a “very small price to pay” for the ongoing war with Iran, arguing they are necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He predicted prices will “come crashing down” once the war ends. But for farmers and ranchers, diesel prices have risen more than gas, putting a further strain on already high input costs for 2026.

Trump on Oil Prices:

I looked today, it's like at 102 and that's a very small price to pay pic.twitter.com/2V8LC93wFj
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2026

To start the week, diesel prices went on another run with the national average diesel price is just 20 cents away from reaching a new all-time high. And across the country, a growing number of states aren’t waiting to get there. About six states are already seeing the national average price of diesel reach record highs.

From the Great Lakes to the West Coast, roughly a half dozen states have already smashed previous records, as a late-April dip in prices quickly faded and a fresh surge took hold.

“Diesel now averaging about $5.65 a gallon nationally. That is only about 20 cents away from a new all-time record high,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy . “So even though we had that short-lived break, we’re right back knocking on the door of records again.”

That “break” didn’t last long. De Haan says even though diesel prices saw a bit of a respite for April, with even prices starting to trend down in mid-April, those prices re-accelerated in the last week.

New records for diesel in:
Michigan, $6.01
Illinois, $6.01
Wisconsin $5.67
(Indiana 0.2c/gal away), $6.03
(Ohio ~19c/gal away), $5.93 https://t.co/DV0387vvMR
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 5, 2026

Now, the rally is showing up in state-by-state records, especially in the Midwest.

“Looking at it state by state, Great Lakes states have seen some tremendous refining issues that have really caused prices to rise dramatically,” he says. “Michigan has now set a new all-time record high for diesel over $6. Indiana is just a few tenths of a penny away from setting a new all-time record. Illinois has set a new all-time record. Wisconsin has set a new all-time record.”

And it’s not just a regional story. States in the West were some of the first to not just see the highest prices, but now also hit record levels.

“Out on the West Coast, Arizona set a record a couple of weeks ago, and Washington state is at an all-time record,” he adds. “So there are probably about a half dozen or so states that have set new all-time records, and again, the national average itself is just 20 cents away.”

Perhaps the most telling shift, though, is there’s no longer a low-price refuge.

“No states any longer have diesel averaging below $5 a gallon,” De Haan says. “Texas was the last holdout, and it now is above $5 per gallon. So across the board, $5 diesel is now essentially the floor, and in some areas, that’s actually the cheaper end of the spectrum.”

At the high end, prices are reaching extremes with California’s average diesel price now surpassing $8 per gallon.

Global Tensions Cloud Relief Outlook

With prices continuing to climb, farmers are looking for relief. What would it take to reverse course? That answer remains tied to global uncertainty.

“Relief may be a little bit elusive,” De Haan admits. “It really just depends on the daily developments in the situation between the U.S. and Iran—whether the Strait is open or not, or whether we’re in phases of escalation.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, moving roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day.

“Nothing else matters to the oil market more than this waterway,” he emphasizes. “We’ve seen attacks that have pushed oil prices higher, which in turn pushes diesel wholesale prices up. You may get a little bit of day-to-day relief, but there really is no ‘coast is clear’ until there’s some sort of definitive resolution.”

And even then, he says a turnaround won’t happen overnight.

“If there is a definitive signal to the market, if the Strait reopens and both sides are aligned, prices could start falling within 48 hours,” De Haan explained. “But the rate of decline is likely to slow after that initial drop.”

Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Through 2026

Not only is the rate of decline projected to be slow, but De Haan says diesel prices aren’t likely to drop back to pre-war levels by the end of the year.

“Roughly half of the increase we’ve seen over the last couple of months could come down within the first few months of positive news,” he said. “But the other half could take many more months. We may not get back to pre-conflict diesel prices until late this year—or even into 2027.”

For agriculture, that prolonged stretch of elevated prices carries real consequences.

“When you look at what comes out of a barrel of oil, diesel only makes up about 25%,” De Haan explained. “Gasoline is a larger portion, so it’s been less impacted. Jet fuel, which is an even smaller share, has been hit the hardest. So it’s almost inverse to how much is produced.”

Why Diesel Is Climbing Faster Than Gasoline

If it feels like diesel prices are rising faster and hitting harder than gasoline, there’s a reason rooted in how a barrel of oil gets used.

“Diesel has seen more of the sticker shock compared to gasoline,” says De Haan. “And a lot of that comes down to what comes out of a barrel of oil.”

Not all fuels are created equally in supply. Gasoline makes up the largest share of a refined barrel, while diesel represents a smaller slice, making it more vulnerable when supply is disrupted.

“Gasoline is the top product flowing out of a barrel of oil, so it’s been the least impacted,” De Haan explains. “Diesel, on the other hand, only accounts for about 25% of a barrel, so it’s been more impacted when there are supply issues.”

That imbalance becomes even clearer when looking across the full spectrum of refined fuels.

“The most significant impact has actually been to jet fuel, which is only about 9% of a barrel,” he adds. “So if you look at it inversely—the smaller the share of the barrel, the bigger the impact we’re seeing right now.”

For agriculture, that dynamic matters more than most sectors.

Diesel isn’t optional on the farm. It’s essential. From planting to harvest, it powers tractors, trucks and the supply chain that moves commodities across the country.

“Diesel is the fuel that drives agriculture,” De Haan say. “And that’s why these price increases are so impactful, not just at the pump, but all the way through the economy.”

And while prices are already elevated, the full effect is still working its way downstream.

“Consumers really haven’t even seen the full onset of some of these higher prices yet,” he adds. “That’s going to continue to trickle through in the weeks ahead.”

Demand Holding...for Now

Even with these high prices, so far, demand hasn’t shown many signs of slowing.

“We have not seen much meaningful decrease in demand yet,” De Haan says. “We’ve seen very little, if any, diesel demand destruction so far, which tells you the economy is essentially preparing to pay these prices because it still needs the fuel.”

But there are warning signs ahead.

“If diesel nationally hits $6 a gallon, that’s likely when we start to see consumption slow,” he says. “For gasoline, that number is about $5 a gallon. We’re getting very close to those thresholds.”

Until then, the pressure continues to mount. And for farmers heading deeper into the growing season, that pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Has the Cattle Market Finally Topped on Fear of Border Reopening? Grains Fall as Strait Opened

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 15:54:44 GMT

Markets started Friday lower except for cattle but after 10:00 am Central Time the cattle futures tanked.

Cattle Bounce Early
Cattle futures were slightly higher early on Friday in tandem with the stock market soaring into record territory and plunging crude oil futures with word the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that provided and early bounce for cattle after two down days tied to profit taking but then the market crashed.

He says with prices at record highs the risk is high.

“We’ve got an on-feed report coming up with 100% on-feed estimate, and we are $50 higher than where we were last year on the same cattle on-feed. So we’re at some impressive levels here, Michelle.”

Is a Top In the Cattle Market?
The cattle market was overbought which triggered some profit taking and with futures tanking on Friday it will confirm a lower weekly close and reversal off of record highs.

So will that also confirm a top in the cattle market?

Varilek says, “That’s going to be the question here because it it looks like hey look at the time of year we’re in we’re at the time of year we can put a high in charts almost look like it you know we drove through make contract highs closed all the gaps and then what was the encore not much we drifted a little bit lower. So, for about the you know 75th time we’ll try to call a top in this market but it I don’t know that we want to try to do that it’s just the potential is there for it you know,” he says.

April live cattle futures did get over $250 and the contract was slammed with a bunch of deliveries as well which is bearish.

“We’ve got 20 deliveries and three retenders on the market so we are just seeing that starting to act a little bit more sloppy here,” he adds.

Line in the Sand for Funds is $243
The line in the sand on a technical basis for the funds to defend their longs is $243 on the June live cattle chart says Varilek.

“Funds don’t sell highs. They don’t buy lows. Once the chart starts to flip and their signals start to go off, whether it’s crossing moving averages, whether it’s coming off of being overbought, then they start to unwind positions. And it kind of sounds like around that $243 area on the June is
the spot that they’re looking at,” he says.

As of mid-session that low had held but for how long?

“There’s the old saying never be short June cattle in the month of May. Yes we’re in different times now you know it’s going to be wild as high as we are but that’s that’s how the market could feel so long story short $243 is a spot that I would think that we need to hold for that,” he adds.

Fear of Border Reopening
Fundamentally what has spooked the market is the fear of USDA announcing the border reopening as Secretary Brooke Rollins will be announcing the ground breaking of the New World Screwworm facility in Texas on Friday morning.

The fear is she could also announce the resumption of Mexican cattle imports.

Varilek says, “I mean, will there be an announcement? Will there not? We’re just kind of all hands on deck, kind of watching and wondering what she’s going to say. So going down for some groundbreaking of the facility. But you just would expect that she’s going to say something.
Okay. What kind of plan are we going to softly open a port and get some cattle coming across? And I think that’s what we’ve been talking about for a couple of weeks. So it’s not brand new, but I think that’s our expectations is that she will say something.”

He thinks the timing is odd as the weather is getting warmer which more easily allows the fly to migrate North versus the winter time.

However, it won’t be as big of an impact as feared due to the staggered reopening and the fact Mexico has developed its own feeding capacity.

“You know, they’ve been able to kill the cattle down there and ship the meat up here. So they may not be as eager to send near as many numbers as what they had planned before. So I feel like it’s negative to the market, but maybe not as negative as it probably used to be months ago.”

Cash Disappoints
Cash trade also developed on a light basis on Thursday at $248 live and mostly $388 up to $342 dressed, which is steady money with last week but a disappointment to the market.

“I mean, it was last week. It was these $248 bids and only one regional out there getting some $250, maybe a little disappointing. And I think everybody wanted that round $250 number so we could just feel good about it. It would have traded if it hit. Packers really dug their heels in and they’re sitting at $248. And now we have some sloppy trade this week. A lot of $248 starting to trickle around. I know several people have taken it and a couple dollars off of $250 is still a great price. These cattle are going to probably make some money up here because we’ve got extra days on feed. We’re making them bigger. Hard to say pass on that.”

Cattle on Feed Report
The market was also seeing some positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed report which is expected to be somewhat bullish.

The on feed estimate is 100%, placements at 93% and marketings at 94%.

“The South placements are going to be much lower and that’s, what’s really pulling this down. So, so that feels okay. You know that, Hey, when we’re. We’re still seeing the tight numbers, the on-feed number.”

Next month that could change as some of the feeder are being moved off grass and wheat pastures early due to drought.

Feeder Cattle Cash Index Hits Record High
This week the feeder cattle cash index hit a record high of $379.09 which is also supportive.

“That’s been strong. And feeders have been what’s bailing out this market. You know, that’s still the case.”

Lean Hogs Make New Lows
Lean hog futures are down a 9th day and making more new lows for the move but will the market find support soon on the charts?

Varilek says, “Hogs are trendy and it’s making a third leg lower. So Elliott Wave people, chart people, you might look at that and wonder, okay, so when it holds, you almost need to wait for that confirmation before you can kind of really jump into that market. Let it trend lower here. I think that cash and cutouts have been a little bit sloppy here looking for that to get better I think here rather soon.”

He bases that on the disease issues in the herd and eventually that will produce a marketing hole.

Grains Tank as Strait of Hormuz Opens
The grains are all lower on Friday taking out war premium with the Strait of Hormuz opening back up.

Varilek says, “Crude oil down $10 here today. Grains did put a little bit of premium on for that, and now we’re just taking that off. The equities are impressive how they can rally on back. So, as of now we’re feeling this war is going to stop or get better but not super confident. And wheat could not take out the April highs so it saw some profit taking and so is the rest of the grain complex.”

Trump Warns Fertilizer Giants Against "Price Gouging" as Costs Soar 40%

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:46:54 GMT

Fertilizer market volatility is once again taking center stage as geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply lines and push input costs sharply higher. New analysis shows the increase in fertilizer prices may not be over, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Even with the situation in Iran pushing prices even higher, the sharp increase in fertilizer prices from 2020 to now is catching attention in Washington. Not only did President Donald Trump take to social media to warn of ‘price gouging,’ but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also posted on X Monday, specifically expressing frustration over Mosaic’s response to farmers.

While Rollins and USDA Under Secretary Stephen Vaden have raised concerns over fertilizer prices this year, the president posted on Truth Social over the weekend that he is closely monitoring fertilizer prices and pledged support for American farmers.

Trump said Saturday on his Truth Social platform he is “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY” during what he described as the US “FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran”, adding that the administration “will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly”.

On Monday, Rollins posted on X, saying she was “So disappointed in this response” from Mosaic, “especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market.”

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

Mosaic announced last week the decision to shut down major phosphate operations in Brazil, a move the that will cut production, reduce jobs, and signal a *strategic shift in how the fertilizer giant deploys its capital.

Mosaic Company announced Thursday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil as part of a broader effort to cut costs and shift capital. Mosaic expects idling of the facilities to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. CEO Bruce Bodine says the decision reflects what he calls a disciplined focus on long-term returns.

.@MosaicCompany, you’re right that U.S. farmers are facing a difficult economic situation, only made worse by the extra $6.9 BILLION they have had to spend on fertilizer since you petitioned the government to place duties on imported phosphorus. This has played a major role in… https://t.co/UuOqjE0jBu
— National Corn (NCGA) (@NationalCorn) April 13, 2026

Mosaic and Simplot have also been in the cross hairs of the push to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate . Groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) claim the CVDs are costing U.S. agriculture $1 billion each year.

The CVDs on Moroccan phosphate were put into place by the International Trade Commission (ITC) in 2021. As the sunset review begins, more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC to revoke the countervailing duties on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia.

In separate filings by Mosaic and Simplot to the ITC and the Department of Commerce, both companies said the continuation is necessary to maintain a “level playing field.”

In a written response to Farm Journal, Mosaic said:

“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high-quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Iran War’s Current Impact on Fertilizer Prices

The message from the Trump adminstration comes as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States is weighing a potential full naval blockade. Ship traffic through the critical waterway has already dropped from roughly 135 vessels per day to the single digits. A complete shutdown could halt flows entirely, further increasing fertilizer prices.

The stakes are high as roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments move through the strait, and the disruption is already sending prices higher, up more than 40% compared to a year ago.

It is the 6-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fert price comparisons:

NOLA urea - +$230 or 49%
NOLA UAN - +$145 or 38%
Midwest NH3 - +$245 or 32%
NOLA DAP - +$130 or 21%
NOLA potash - +$10 or 3%

...corn - 2-cents or 0.5% higher#sickeningforfarmers
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) April 10, 2026

Market data shows the impact Iran is having on already high fertilizer prices. According to StoneX analyst Josh Linville says in the six weeks since the war started:

Urea prices have surged by $230 per ton, a 49% increase
UAN is up $145 per ton, or 38%
Anhydrous ammonia has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump.
In contrast, corn prices have barely responded, rising just two cents, or about half a percent. The divergence is putting additional pressure on farm margins.

DOJ Probe Into Fertilizer Costs Seeks Input From Farmers

The Trump administration is asking farmers to help provide information as part of an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into elevated costs for fertilizer, machinery and other key agricultural inputs, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported the effort is aimed at gathering more on-the-ground data as regulators examine whether fertilizer producers may have coordinated to raise prices. The DOJ investigation was first reported in early March, when Bloomberg said federal officials had begun looking into whether fertilizer companies engaged in price coordination.

According to the Bloomberg report, Vaden said he has already met with officials at both the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to discuss potential lines of inquiry. He also noted that farmers could play a key role in the process.

Vaden said farmers “have a lot of information that might be relevant to these investigations.”

Bloomberg previously reported in early March that the Department of Justice is investigating whether fertilizer producers colluded to increase prices.

Speaking at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual conference in Washington on Monday, Vaden encouraged farmer participation in the probe, emphasizing confidentiality protections.

“We need farmers to help provide us with that information on a confidential basis, so that that can help inform the investigations that are ongoing,” Vaden said, according to Bloomberg. “I think we will have a mechanism in order to help encourage that exchange of information.”

NCGA Surveys Show Not All Farmers Have Fertilizer Secured for 2026

Against that backdrop, along with fertilizer prices climbing even higher in the six weeks after the conflict started with Iran, new surveys results from NCGA highlight how those market pressures are translating to on-farm realities.

Krista Swanson, chief economist for NCGA, says the organization conducted the survey to better understand fertilizer availability from the farmer perspective. Ag Secretary Rollins has told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026, but NCGA data contradicts that figure.

“We’re hearing that number being thrown around too, which is why we really wanted to find out directly from farmers what the status is for them,” Swanson says.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

A Significant Gap in Fertilizer Readiness

The surveys show that only 60% of farmers report having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured for the 2026 growing season, while 64% say the same for phosphate. That leaves a sizable portion of producers still working to lock in supplies.

“When you think about over 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., this isn’t a small number,” Swanson says. “Our survey results indicate that over 200,000 farmers still need at least some fertilizer for this year.”

Nitrogen remains a critical input for corn production and is closely tied to yield potential. Any shortfall, whether driven by availability or cost, can directly affect productivity and profitability.

NCGA Grower Surveys

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

Younger Farmers Feeling the Pressure Most

The survey also points to uneven impacts across the farm sector, with younger farmers facing greater challenges in securing fertilizer.

Swanson says younger producers reported having more nitrogen left to purchase compared to older farmers.

“You think about younger farmers that have less capital already built up in their business, maybe tighter cash flow needs because of their equity position,” she says. “This does seem to have a disproportional impact on younger farmers.”

That dynamic raises concerns about financial strain among newer operations in a high-cost environment.

Corn Acres Likely Stable, But With Reduced Inputs

Despite the challenges, most farmers are not planning to reduce corn acreage. The survey found that 80% of respondents expect to maintain their planned acres.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

At the same time, fertilizer application rates may fall short. Half of the farmers surveyed say they do not expect to apply their full amount of fertilizer.

“Pairing these two together, it seems to me like we are still going to see a lot of corn acres get planted,” Swanson says. “But those corn acres will have less fertilizer than maybe what they would have otherwise had.”

That combination could limit yield potential if input reductions become widespread.

Growing Concern Shifts to 2027

While fertilizer availability remains a concern for 2026, attention is already turning to the next crop year. Fertilizer purchasing follows a rolling cycle, and planning for 2027 will begin soon.

Survey responses show that for every one farmer more concerned about fertilizer price and availability for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

“So farmers are concerned as we look ahead to next year,” Swanson says.

The shift reflects uncertainty about how long supply disruptions and elevated prices will persist.

Supply Chain Recovery May Take Time

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, relief may not come quickly. Swanson notes that the fertilizer market is still dealing with production disruptions and supply chain backlogs.

“A short-term ceasefire has limited immediate impact on this ongoing fertilizer crisis for farmers,” she says. “Even when a permanent end to the situation is reached, we’re still looking at recovery from supply chain backlogs and halted production that could take a long time to recover from.”

Damage to key inputs such as liquid natural gas and sulfur production could take years to repair, keeping pressure on supply.

A Tightening Outlook

The NCGA survey underscores a challenging environment for corn producers. Most acres are expected to be planted this year, but not all will receive optimal fertilizer applications. At the same time, concern is building for 2027 as farmers look ahead to the next purchasing cycle.

For many producers, the issue is no longer just securing fertilizer for this season. It is navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that could shape production decisions, costs, and risk management strategies across the U.S. corn sector.

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

In September 2025, USDA and the U.S. Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding, committing both agencies to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, which included fertilizer, by scrutinizing competitive conditions in agricultural markets and enforcing antitrust laws, particularly around price setting and market concentration.

While geopolitical tensions are the latest driver of volatility, many farm groups argue the root of the problem runs deeper. Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, says ongoing federal investigations into fertilizer pricing must lead to meaningful action.

“We appreciate the administration’s investigations into input costs,” Perdue says. “But investigations don’t do anything if they’re not followed by enforcement, and they don’t do anything if we don’t learn what came out of those investigations.”

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Texas farmer Dee Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

Cattle Test Contract Highs on Strong Cash, Fade Border Talk: How High Will Prices Go?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:21:18 GMT

Cattle and soybeans are higher early Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Cattle Test Contract Highs
Cattle futures were strong out of the gate Friday with many of the live cattle futures once again making contract highs and other contracts are testing those chart areas.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.

“Cattle have been very strong. They’ve been overbought for a significant amount of time. And yeah, bumping on some of these contract highs. Some months are breaking through. And when some of the front months were making contract highs, the deferreds were kind of left in the dust, and now here in the last few days, more confidence in the back just continues to push higher. The resilience of this market is just very impressive.”

He says the market has shook off plenty of negative news including the Iran war, possible Mexican border reopening, closure of the Lexington, Neb. plant and the JBS plant strike at Greeley, CO.

When Will the Cattle High Hit?
Varilek says the market is getting hard to protect as many producers and market participants are waiting to see if the market is topping.

“I think there’s a lot of open inventory out there, guys that don’t have cattle hedged. And we’re just waiting. So whenever there is that official rollover, don’t know when it is. Everybody would love to know. And everybody says, call me if you think that is going to happen. That list is a thousand people long. So I don’t know that I’m going to get everybody called when that hits,” he says.

Higher Fed Cash Push
The futures have been pushed by the cash market which was up $9.26 last week on the 5-area weighted average.

“The way that it rallied was very impressive. It wasn’t just a few regionals out in front. We’ve got a couple of majors out there leading this cash market and for a couple of weeks in a row here now, coming in and grabbing entire show lists and the right kind of strength behind cash markets. So that helps a lot,” And he explains it provides the avenue to clean up the show lists and pull down the weights.

Producers have regained leverage but will it continue to push cash higher this week?

“Going into this week I think the thoughts were we’re gonna ask $252 but if the bids start coming out at $250 give me a call and there might be a little bit of interest there so I think anything $250 or higher, we’re feeling good. And it’s going to have to take that. I don’t feel like we’re going to move cattle less than that, especially with the strength that we’ve seen on the board here.”

Feeders Regain Leadership?
The feeder cattle cash index is back going higher and so will cash strength help pull the futures into new highs?

Varilek says, “These feeders have been the leaders for the last couple of years during this rally. And I think recently there was a small window here where a few of the cattle buyers were telling me, hey, I think there’s some soft. trade happening here and it’s easing up just a little
bit maybe not as strong that’s about all you had to say it must have encouraged the rest of the buyers to show up and we’re you know back off to the races got another you know projecting the index up another $2.40 here today and giving us that confidence.”

Plus, as planting ramps up there will be fewer cattle and buyers at the sale barns.

Mexican Border Reopening Soon?
The other headwind is continued talk the Mexican border might slowly start to open to cattle imports in a few weeks.

However, so far it hasn’t spooked the cattle market.

“Well, I think there was probably a few guys sitting on their hands waiting for more details there and now here we sit with kind of the same information, not a lot. So they might have to reenter and jump back in and get some inventory. I like what I’m seeing. To get to contract highs,
it’s not out of reach here,” he adds.

When the border does reopen it will be staggered and start in the far west ports but Varilek anticipates an announcement soon.

“You know, maybe it’s a staggered open here in a couple of weeks. And it’s like, OK, I just haven’t heard anything new yet on that story. I think that it is and I think that they probably will. I think we have a lot of measures in place to help prevent this. It is screwworm. It’s not hoof and mouth disease. It’s a little bit of a different cookie here, something that we should be able to try to manage. I don’t think it’s as big of a disaster as what some of the news is,” he states.

Plus, he says Mexico has learned how to deal with those cattle and are running those plants 24-7.

“They don’t have the regulations that we do here. They can ship us a lot of beef, just import us the beef, and they’ve got a self -sustaining industry down there. We can ship them corn. We’ve got a lot of cheap corn here. So that’s what I see.”

Hogs Correcting
Lean hogs saw a pop at the beginning of the week on news of FMD in China but have corrected since than and the action has been disappointing according to Varilek.

“One of our lead hog analysts here said, yeah, hogs suck. You know that that’s how what our attitude really is. We feel like we’ve got news that could rally these these hogs we we’ve got new PRRS outbreaks happening. I mean the disease is still there and so when we’re in the heart of
production we hear those stories,” he says.

Still hogs have not been able to turn around but he thinks its just a matter of time.

“I think that these hogs in these summer months can really take off here yet. So still holding out hope.”

Corn Removes War Premium
Corn futures are lower again on Friday on follow through selling and are working on a lower weekly close.

The market is taking out war and inflation premium according to Varilek.

“The energy rally that caught a lot of attention across agriculture markets and grains really benefited from it. You know, got to some levels, gave us some opportunities. Hey, to say, hey, I actually can look at some prices that might work here. That was fun. Now that we’re in the mood of, OK, we’re having ceasefire talks, we’re going to meet with Iran in Pakistan, Israel just kind of maybe coming to the table as of this morning.
We’ll see. But I think that’s starting to pull some of that premium out.”

Plus, he says the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks in the WASDE was a reminder of the large corn inventory in the U.S. with basis weaker than normal.

Soybeans Rally with Meal and China Hopes
Soybeans were higher again on Friday morning and have been strong all week getting some help from higher soybean meal as spreads are unwound with bean oil.

The other supportive feature is China and hopes for large purchases announcements in mid-May at the trade meeting between President’s Trump and Xi.

Live Cattle Follow Skyrocketing Cash, JBS Plant Strike Ending: Hogs Rally on FMD in China

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:52:16 GMT

Live cattle were higher feeders two sided with hogs sharply higher early Monday. Corn and soybeans were trying to hold gains as wheat fell.

Live Cattle Hit Contract Highs
Live cattle were higher early Monday with deferred contracts making new contract highs.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.

Cash Skyrockets
Cash trade was higher on Thursday at $245 to $246 in the South, up $8 to $9 and the North traded $245 live and mostly $385 dressed, up $13.

“Absolutely this cash market even with the Greeley plant being closed and even with all the uncertainty going on with the geopolitics and all the other stuff cash was basically $245 in fact there was some $246 bid around here on Saturday, the day before Easter. So that’s pretty impressive.”

He says show lists are very tight in the North, weights are falling and the backlog of big cattle has been worked through.

“Now all of a sudden you’re in between crops of cattle mostly the yearlings are gone and the calves aren’t fat yet even though the weather has been ideal.”

Cash Higher Again This Week?
So will cash trade be higher again this week with feedlots regaining leverage?

Kooima says, “I think yes. I think most everybody’s kind of got $250 in mind this week, and I think we’ll get it. And it’ll probably be led by the North. So it’s kind of weird to me how the packer really lost his leverage last week.”

He adds that the market has already exceeded his expectations and could shoot all the way up to $260 before it runs out of gas.

Greeley Plant Strike Over?
Over the weekend the strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado ended and so the plant will be killing cattle on Tuesday according to Kooima.

“I think they might get 3,500 cattle dead tomorrow as the union has agreed to go back to work and while they continue to negotiate. So not unexpected. We kind of heard this was coming last week. But of course, that’s going to force that outfit to have to buy a few cattle, we think anyway. And then that should help press the thing toward $250.”

The union went back to work despite their demands being met but Kooima is fairly sure the strike is over for good.

“The back story of this had been that, well, this is a deal, an agreement that all their other plants had already signed on to. And so, you know, a lot of us on the sidelines were thinking like, well, what do you expect JBS to do to make a different deal for Greeley? You know, maybe there’s some small concessions with some benefits or something, but to say that they were going to reopen that whole thing. And then of course, you know, the union leader has of this particular union has a reputation of, enjoying strikes. And so, you know, you wondered about it. I would say that you can’t completely say, okay, no worries at all. But for me, I’d be, I’d be 80% sure that they’re probably back to work to stay,” he explains.

How Long For Greeley to Return to Normal?
So how long will it take to get Greeley back to full capacity?

Kooima says, “I’m guessing, but the boots on the ground there, they think maybe, you know, capacity is 5,400. But I don’t know if there’s a plant
in the universe that’s killing it capacity with this tight supply. The talk was that they maybe could get back to where they were, which is around 4,800 to 5,000, maybe as soon as two weeks. So we’ll see. Probably depends on the margins and the profitability, too. That’ll probably incentivize them, give them a lack of incentive to get real aggressive if the packers kind of lost his margin here on this last last last move here.”

Feeder Cattle Sloppy Fearing Border Reopening
The feeder cattle market has not made new highs like the live cattle and it fact Kooima says was trading two sided and sloppy on Monday.

It is likely the fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle and USDA Secretary Rollins has changed her stance when that event will take place and retreated on how much of threat New World Screwworm (NWS) is to the U.S. cattle herd.

So, Kooima says its more likely within the next few weeks.

“Personally I am really tired of this deal. I think they’ve made so much out of it. This is something that’s treatable. This isn’t mad cow disease. This is a worm. Ever heard of IVAMEC? So her narrative changed in that they think maybe now it’s time to do a gradual reopening. They’d
start way on that west one there, Sonora, the one in New Mexico. They’re 800 miles literally from the nearest incident of screwworm fly.”

However, he says the Mexican cattle industry has built feed yards and packing capacity and is making money so the number of cattle coming across the border may be less than expected.

“They’ve tripled their kill capacity because they’re killing cattle 24-7 instead of eight hours a day for five days. So we may never go back to where
we were. In fact, I doubt very much that we ever will, you know, back to that 1.3 million head a year. But for my money, I don’t know. I think I’d just soon know where they are instead of having to absorb all their meat into our consumption and wondering exactly what it is. But that’s just me,” he says.

Plus he says the market has rallied $23 in three weeks and filled the chart gaps, so it is overbought.

Hogs Rally on FMD in China
Lean hog futures were also higher on Monday with news that China has cases of Foot and Mouth Disease in two provinces.

Kooima says, “Those kind of headlines really will spark it. Obviously, China has been noticeably absent from our export business here because it feels like they’ve got their whole industry back, you know, through their disease cycle and after low productivity, high productivity. Now, I don’t know if FMD is necessarily quite the like PRRS risk or, you know, all this other stuff. But yeah. For now, it’s given us a pretty good headline bounce.”

He adds that disease problems in the U.S. herd are also causing the feeder pig market to rally.

“Everybody’s talking about the disease problems here in the United States as well. PRRS, some new strain. It seems like it never fails. You can only go a year or two before something else happens. So I know these guys that are buying feeder pigs are really chasing the market.”

Corn, Soybeans Struggle to Hold
Corn and soybean futures are struggling to hold slight gains with the wheat market lower and uncertainty tied to war headlines and the energy market looking for direction.

“If you’re bullish you better hang your hat right on that post because that’s I don’t see a lot of other stuff to hold the market except what the weather is going to be this summer and nobody knows what will happen with that,” he states.

Seasonals are a little stronger during the planting season but he says the cash basis levels on corn in the North are weak even around ethanol plants.

“Basis is really weak 40 to 50 under tells me there’s all kinds of old crop corn left. So, let’s give it a chance here the next two weeks let’s hope we bounce a little bit,” he adds.

Cattle Rally on NWS, Cash, Technicals: Will Cash be Higher This Week?

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 15:28:49 GMT

Cattle and hogs were mostly higher early Monday, with soybeans higher, corn lower and wheat mixed.

Cattle Futures Extend Grains
Live and feeder cattle futures were extending gains on Monday after higher weekly closes. For the week April live cattle were up nearly $4.50, June was up $5.25 with May feeders up $13.45 and August up $11.67.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the rally late last week was impressive considering the equity markets were sharply lower on Thursday and Friday plus crude oil was higher.

What Drove the Rally?
He says the rally was driven by a combination of factors including a strong chart pattern which prompted some technical buying.

“I did not see Friday coming. I was surprised. A lot of that, you know, what you quoted for the week, an awful lot of that, especially on the live cattle, happened on Friday. Of course. feeder cattle futures were up a lot too which was part of the market. However, when you whip the horse it better run and we could have easily been lower Friday with the stock market sharply lower and with the lack of cash trade.”

He says the past futures rallies had been led by cash but this one was not.

“Instead this time it seemed like the you broke out of basically both flag type formations on the fats and the feeders and then you prompted either short covering, because open interest was no runaway, but I would suppose at least some fund buying in the deferreds. The funds don’t trade something that’s ready to go under delivery like the April, so the April was kind of under performing. So I think technical buying,” he adds.

Cash Cattle Steady to Higher
Cash cattle traded steady to higher on Friday as a result, which was also impressive according to Kooima.

The cash was slow to break but in the North the trade was mostly $235 live, which was steady. Then after the futures closed the South broke at $238, up $3 from the previous week.

“I thought it was going to maybe take a little longer. I thought it might take into the middle of April. And then I really agree that, you know, the supply of cattle here going into that second quarter slot is tight. And nobody’s going to be in a big hurry to sell a calf that’s barely fat in April or May. Maybe we just cleaned this thing up a couple of weeks earlier than I thought, which is awesome,” he explains.

Higher Cash Cattle Trade Again?
Show lists are fairly tight in the North and the bigger cattle have been cleaned up so will the cash be higher again this week?

He says it is possible as packers are starting to buy for the best demand time of the year for beef. “Yes, I think cash will be higher this week, whether it’ll be galloping higher like we sometimes get, I don’t know. I guess I do think we are going to maybe put some $240s hopefully up on the board next week or this week rather for cash. And then we’ll see once if we can maybe work more to those mid $240s here in the next couple of weeks after that. So I do like the way the cash market feels barring something else.”

However, he says Greeley is getting closer to a settlement which could have an impact. “I guess I’m trying to say it feels like the
toehold that the union has is starting to weaken, you know, in another week. Looks like maybe we’ll see or hear something in terms of a settlement there. So, you know, that bad news should be in the market. The Cargill talk about, you know, whether Fort Morgan was going to join that strike, that seems to have died down.”

NWS Case Pushes Feeders
Kooima says also pushing the feeder market on Friday was another case of NWS that was only 77 miles from the U.S. border.

USDA Secretary Rollins has said the border would stay closed until those cases started rolling back and further away from the U.S.

“Whether it’s a combination of these headline trading algorithms that react to those kinds of things or just to the reality of, holy cow, we thought we were winning. We thought we were pushing it back. This is what Secretary Rollins said has been necessary if we’re going to ever open it, that we need to see this thing in retreat. Now, we’re not too far from having that next factory of sterile flies operational, I understand. But yeah, I would guess too that that probably was, I mean, why else do you all of a sudden go up $7?”

Kooima adds that the cash feeder market has also been strong at the sale barns.

Hogs Trade Bullish Report
The lean hog futures are showing early strength on Monday after June and the deferred contracts closed higher for the week on the heel of the bullish USDA Hogs and Pigs Report.

Plus, Kooima says disease problems are ramping up and technically the market held support.

“Looking backwards the last two or three weeks, I liked where we held. We’d had a big correction. We’re still a long ways off the highs, even though we’ve had a couple of nice up days. Held at the 100-day. A little reinforcement on a hog report as the USDA continues to kind of amend, catch up to the shorter numbers with some revisions again. And just this morning, I’m talking to someone that I have a high amount of respect for in the hog thing, talking again about another part of the country here that just broke with a real hot strain of PRRS with an 85% mortality or something like that.”

That is fueling buying in the summer months, plus he says domestic demand has been strong due to the price point of pork and Easter ham buying.

Soybeans Follow Oil, Corn Eases
Soybeans and corn were lower on Friday fading the record levels reported in the RVOs but soybeans are back up on Monday with bean oil.

Kooima says bean oil is getting a push from $100 crude oil and sharply higher diesel fuel markets.

However, he likes the look of the charts and the seasonals are favorable.

“This is typically. where you get some movement between now and when we plant. But I also, you know, a little heads up, you know, this is where you start to kind of pick some targets here a little bit above us and start to do a little bit of pricing here.”

The other key is the market needs to get through the big USDA reports.

“And that’s there’s plenty of info on this report. On the one side, we’re going to get reminded about just how much corn we’ve got left over, especially compared to a year ago. My goodness. But on the other side. We’re going to, you know, let’s get dialed in just how much less corn are you going to plant. It’s not whether it’s going to be less than last year, how much less. With that average trade estimate, you know, in that 94 to 94.4 range or something like that. If I had to guess it, I would guess it would be even a little bit less than that. But we shall see,” he remarks.

Cattle Higher Fading Lower Equities, Hogs Rally on Report: Corn, Beans Ease

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 15:56:10 GMT

Cattle and hogs are higher early Friday, with grains mixed.

Cattle Extend Rally Despite Lower Equities
Live and especially feeder cattle futures are seeing follow through buying and a strong rally despite lower equity markets and higher energy prices, which are usually negative for the market.

Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the ability of the cattle market to divorce itself from the outside markets the last two sessions has been very impressive.

“We had a really good finish yesterday and that’s kind of setting the stage for today. We’re having a fantastic start. Feeders are up $4.50, fats up $2 or more. You’re still having an outside market that’s a little bit clunky, a little bit squirrely here, especially on a Friday going into a weekend. We don’t know what’s going to happen with any war escalation or anything like that. So I’m highly impressed with the cattle action so far. And I’m glad that we can finally have a little bit of a divorce between the two and maybe look at
some fundamentals that could be coming around the corner there.”

Steady Cash Supportive
Thursday the fed cash market started to develop at steady money so that is likely supporting the futures he says.

“Yeah, I would call yesterday a big victory. We look at the last couple of weeks, our kills were light. Like yesterday was just 96,000. Last week’s kill was like 508,000 or something like that. It’s great to see because we’re worried about you know how big these cattle are, we’re worried about the last couple weeks we’ve carried some cattle into the next week because we didn’t sell as much. Yet you’re seeing a market that is holding,” he says.

Cash bids on Friday were also holding steady with Thursday’s cash trade at mostly $235 in the North with dressed prices at $370 to $372 and a few in Texas at $234.

Kooima says, “The packers got a little bit of an appetite here and the producers can kind of smell it. So futures are responding pretty well. So this leverage hopefully is shifting back into the producers hands right now.”

Futures Absorb Lower Boxed Beef
The futures are also holding despite the drop in boxed beef values the last few days and he thinks the market will continue to shake it off.

“I think we can. The relationship between the boxes and cash in the last several years has always been tough to tie the two together. You’re having cattle that are on feed a little bit longer. Our grading is the highest it’s ever been. So part of the equation there too is like, hey, we’re probably swimming in a lot of prime and a lot of choice product out there that’s having maybe a tough time having a lot of movement at the prices there. But I look at the calendar. We’re a few weeks out from having a big spring demand push. Maybe these packers just had to back it up. The price level is just to get a little bit better start on the price and not have such a high price going into a big spring demand event because basically these boxes are the highest they ever have ever been if we take out that COVID year.”

Technical Breakout in Cattle
Cattle futures also had a technical breakout this week according to Kooima.

“We kind of broke out to the top side at the beginning of the week, and the feeders took out their down, just a smaller downtrend line. The cash market continues to be hot there as well, and the fat cattle followed there as well, took out a small term downtrend line you have a little bit of a wedge of formation happening in so you’re getting some technical buying upon that and if you measure you know that that nice technical outbreak that we had at the beginning of the week it’s almost looking like we can go back, fill that gap that we left a couple months ago so you’re looking at that $240, $239 marker for like June,” he explains.

Greeley Still on Strike
Kooima says workers at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO are still on strike but non-union workers have been slaughtering about 400 to 500 head daily.

“They’ll actually be selling some boxes out of there next week so not enough to really you know matter a whole lot but hey if they’re dropping some blood over there maybe some maybe we’re closer to seeing some kind of a negotiation moving forward too,”

Hogs and Pigs Report Friendly
Hogs are mostly higher on Friday with a push from a friendly USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report compared to expectations with the All hogs and pigs number at 100.4%, kept for breeding at 98.5% and kept for marketing at 100.6%.

“We came back a percent less and majority of the numbers there. And you’re having that into a break of $8 on the board here too. So it’s kind of a good timing aspect for it as well. Does that hog and pig report show exactly what’s going on out there in the real world? It doesn’t reflect necessarily what I hear, but at least we had something to kind of hopefully switch this this quick downtrend that we have and that was a just nice timing overall.”

The 98.5% kept for breeding number was a well under expectations he says. “We’re going to be in a new landscape moving forward and you know what these operations are going to be looking at moving forward. You hear here a few sow barns here and there they’re
just old and the producers are just going to be moving on to something different there. So I think we’re a little bit into that phase,” he says.

USDA also did some revisions to past reports based on slaughter numbers and weights.
but it was actually down from the last quarter, wasn’t it? I believe so. I think there’s a few

When Will Disease Start Showing Up?
When will the reports start showing the marketing hole from disease problems?

Kooima says the disease issues are as bad or worse than in past years. “The prevalence on some of these, the PRRS and the PED. It’s been the highest, you know, some since 2018 for some PRRS issues. And the fourth quarter of last year for like PED was the highest it’s been since like 2023. So we’re talking about a very high benchmark.”

So he thought the disease problems would have already shown up in the form of tighter numbers. “But I think we filled a lot of those flows back, you know, six months ago when we had major disease issues from Canada. So I think that’s a little bit telling story of why
our kill numbers are maybe a little bit more than a year ago.”

Moving forward he’s hearing of packers killing Saturday kills in April which is friendly and indicates tighter numbers. The weights this week finally fell below last week and a year ago.

Funds Still Liquidating
Unfortunately, he says the funds are still liquidating in the hogs and indicated by the dropping open interest. “It was sitting at like 380,000 in the hog complex and I think we lost about 45,000 of that. So that’s one of the reasons why we saw such a big... downtrend here and cash and cutout have been sideways too. So you had a pretty big premium,” he adds.

Corn, Soybeans Under Pressure on Profit Taking
The corn and soybean markets are lower on Friday morning seeing profit taking heading into the weekend on fear of war developments. The market has also rallied anticipating the RVO levels being announced on Friday.

However, Kooima says the row crop markets are seeing buying on the pullbacks. So even if there is some buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction to the RVO announcement, he thinks the market will be well supported due to inflation concerns.

Inflationary Buying
Kooima says with rising energy prices that is fueling inflation concerns which is supportive of the grain markets.

“And I think that’s why you’re seeing the funds take on these little dips that we’ve seen this week. They’re building a long position. They have a nice long position ready, well over 200,000 for both corn and beans. And I think they’re looking to add to that on any kind of a
break there. So if we do have kind of a buy the rumor, sell the fact, I think it’s going to be met with some buying.”

Longer term he thinks higher oil prices will stay high due to the infrastructure damage in Iran and that will continue to support inflationary buying.

Cattle Rally with Equities, Fade COF Report: Grains Fall with Crude Oil

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 16:24:19 GMT

Cattle and hog futures were mostly higher early Monday, with grains mostly lower.

Cattle Follow Equities
Cattle futures are higher early following the big rally in the equity markets and fading the USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the financial markets are up and crude oil is down following President Trump’s post this morning that the U.S. is postponing a strike on Iran power plants and energy infrastructure for 5-days, signaling a de-escalation of the war.

The cattle market has been ebbing and flowing with the S&P and crude oil so the positive move gives traders some confidence that consumer demand for beef will hold.

Cattle Absorb COF
The cattle market was also absorbing the USDA Cattle on Feed Report numbers from Friday with the one feed total at 11.55 million head and at 99.7%, placements at 103.7% and above estimates, with marketings at 93%.

Varilek says the placements number though is being compared to some of the tightest cattle numbers in history and a time when the border was closed to Mexican feeder cattle.

“We’re comparing to a historically low number the year before and we break it all down 40,000 head extra placed is not as big of a swing as you’d actually think,” he says, “We’ve soaked up a lot worse news, I think, in the cattle market than that.”

Some of the extra placements likely came from drought and the need to place some cattle with the wildfires destroying grazing areas he adds.

“Cow-calf country is looking pretty dry right now and in pretty much an expanded area. Last year, different tone. We had some moisture. We were feeling good. It was a nice shot in the arm and now looking pretty dry to start the year. We need to see some rain, some thunderstorms start to move across. We’ve got the wildfires. I mean, that’s been kind of a headline, but even before the fires, I think that was already a story, just how dry we’re looking.

“But with a stock market this strong today, I think that’s what’s winning over in the cattle market. Maybe easing these energy prices consumers can start to feel a little better.”

Steady Fed Cash Trade
The futures already rallied on Friday despite a lower stock market being pulled up by mostly steady cash trade in the fed market.

Varilek says he is surprised to see steady cash with the heavier weights the cattle are carrying.

“I think that was the surprise that we did get steady cash. Now, we say steady cash, and that feels good to say, but it’s not like we have all of the packers out there beating down doors looking for cattle. It’s still slow moving. Our kills are still very slow. You know, we’re off the pace. You think maybe they’re really going to pick up some chain speed, and they don’t,” he explains.

Varilek says Greeley killed about 350 head on Friday but there is no word that the strike has been resolved at the JBS plant.

“They’ve only just killed a few hundred head here and there is all that we’re hearing just with some of their workers that are showing up. And it’s not like we have a good source of information for what’s the future there, what’s happening, is there any headway? Don’t know yet,” he states.

Cash This Week?
Varilek is hopeful cash trade can hold this week with some increased packer demand.

“There’s still a lot of optimism that hey demand is good packers are going to need some cattle we’ll get really going again by then and packers are going to be out in the market. So, it’s only been you know one or two packers long story short last week that we’re in hard enough to matter but guys were able to get some sold and take some bids because our show list did grow here a little bit in the north as we’re starting to carry over some cattle. So anytime you see some move, I think that just makes you feel just a little bit better.”

The caveat is packers have slowed kill to only 508,000 head last week, so producers are still working to get their leverage back.

However, he says packers are seeing some black ink with higher boxed beef values and demand ramping up for the grilling season.

“So I feel okay about cash yet because I think that there’s some packers that haven’t bought a lot of cattle and they are going to want some.”

Can Futures Break Through Resistance?
In this volatile environment Varilek says the technicals are not providing as much clear direction.

“I think we’re all reaching for what we can look at. Where can we draw some lines? We know that we’ve had this large uptrend and the long-term charts are still safe. It’s what can we do? Can we hold some of these levels here at the $230? If we start slipping under $230, does it get a little sloppy? We tried to form a little downtrend line. You know, trying to measure off of that. We kind of broke that. So we’re moving so erratic every other day that it’s kind of the market that stops get filled either side of the market. So I haven’t found a technical that’s just saying, hey, this is what we’re trading off of right now,” he explains.

Hogs Bounce But Funds Have Been Liquidating
Lean hog futures are up with cattle and the stock market Monday.

However, the futures have seen some long liquidation by the funds recently with the poor chart pattern and that caused a big drop in open interest.

“So the funds were heavy longs in that market and really unwound quite a bit last week during all of the outside market noise that we’re having,” he says.

Fundamentally though the market has been trying to price in lower numbers tied to disease and there is news circulating that packers could be cutting Saturday kills in April which would be positive.

“Kill cut in hogs will rally that product and and that can be tied to that contract in their formula that they have so might be okay that might help push this thing back higher,” he adds. He thinks that could push hogs back to test $110.

Hogs are also awaiting the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The last report was bearish and so Varilek says there could be some nervous positioning ahead of that.

Grains Fall with Crude Oil
Grains futures were slightly lower early Monday in tandem with the correction in the crude oil market.

“Yeah, that has to be the lead indicator here with the energy markets much lower. It’s not like the greens are doing anything too wild today, just maybe a little correction,” he says.

However, as the market gets closer to the USDA acreage and stocks data at the end of the month, Varilek thinks the focus may shift away from the energy markets.

Why Cattle Faded the JBS Strike: Soybeans Tank on Fear Over Trump/Xi Meeting

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 15:33:01 GMT

Cattle and hogs were higher early Monday with the grain markets sharply lower led by soybeans.

Cattle Fade JBS Plant Strike
Live and feeder cattle futures opened higher on Monday morning, fading the JBS plant strike in Greeley, CO.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were a couple of reasons the market ignored the strike and the biggest was the higher equity markets and lower crude oil. However, it was also tied to the fact the strike news was already priced into the market.

Kooima says Greeley was already dark last week. “There seems to be some confusion about what went on last week but you know the week before Friday in the afternoon the the union voted to strike or to walk out in 7 days. When they gave management their decision the manager said don’t bother coming next week. So last week we didn’t kill cattle at Greeley because of that. Now this week we’re on strike.”

He says interestingly enough the headline following algorithms that might be selling on the plant strike saw an offset from the outside markets like the equities.

How Long Will the Strike Last?
Kooima says the key to how long the market can continue to hold up depends on how long the strike lasts.

“I don’t know how long the strike’s going to last. But, I mean, it’s not going to last forever. I don’t think this is 1979 where that place went on strike for a year, if anybody doesn’t remember that. 79 into 80, a year at Greeley. I do think that this will be sooner rather than later. “

In the meantime he says JBS has been largely out of the cash market for several weeks.

“So if they would settle and need to try to buy some cattle, I would think you’d get a lift on the front end of the cattle futures and probably improve the cash market as well. So I don’t know if that’s this week, next week, or if it takes a little longer than that. To me, it’s a matter of how many weeks do we think it’s going to last,” he explains.

Could President Trump Step In?
There has also been speculation that a strike would not last long because President Trump might order the employees to go back to work.

Kooima says, “That’s news to me. You know, President Trump is unpredictable. How’s that for a polite answer? I think he’s got plenty of other things to worry about right now than that, although we all know he thinks beef’s too high, although he has put that comment in the closet, thankfully, here the last while.”

Less Negative Impact Because of Tight Cattle Numbers?
The impact of the Greeley plant being dark and removing the ability to kill the 5,400 head a day the plant slaughter may also be muted because of the tight numbers in the current cattle cycle and excess slaughter capacity says Kooima.

“If we were running along killing 125,000 a day, for instance, I think it would have been a lot more devastating. As it is, there’s still, like you just said, there’s not enough cattle to fill what we’ve got. And so I’m not alone thinking that there’s a chance that another plant will go down before this cycle’s over with yet,” he adds.

Can Cattle Recover?
Cattle futures were higher to start Monday and the April contract had filled an important gap area. However, the market was stopped at the first layer of chart resistance. So can the futures fully recover especially with the stock market on weak footing due to the Iran war?

Kooima says there are many headwinds right now in the market including the fact the packer has regained leverage. That’s why cash was $5 lower last week at $235.

“Cash was five lower last week, and we didn’t hardly sell any cattle. Feedlots showed quite a bit of resistance to the lower bids. So now we’re going to heighten that negotiation here this week because we’ve got carryover cattle and some of these cattle are big. So we’ll see who blinks first,” he says.

The other key will be what the stock market does from here and whether futures can regain enough strength to get fund or speculative traders to re-enter the market.

Lean Hogs Bounce With Cattle
Lean hog futures were also higher early Monday with help from cattle and a more risk on tone in the equity markets.

However, Kooima admits the resiliency in the cash and cutouts have also been supportive for the market, plus the tighter numbers expected ahead due to disease.

Grains Tank on Fear of China Meeting Cancellation
After a gap lower on Sunday night the grain markets were sharply lower on Monday. Soybeans were down over 50 cents early on fear that President Trump was going to cancel his meeting with President Xi in China at the end of the month, striking down chances for additional soybean purchases.

Trump asked China over the weekend to help get the Strait of Hormuz opened to allow crude oil to be shipped and threatened if they did not agree he would cancel the summit with the two leaders.

Kooima says the soybean market is taking out premium on that fear and that is spilling over to drag down the grains. However, the lower crude oil market is also taking some of the air out of the grain market balloon.

Can Cattle Recover and is the Greeley Strike Priced In? Row Crops Follow Oil

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 15:08:06 GMT

Cattle were higher early Friday with hogs and grain markets lower.

Cattle Bounce With Equities But Can They Recover?
Cattle futures found early strength Friday in tandem with the bounce in the equity markets and the pull back in the energy markets, according Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says the cattle were in lock step with the S&P all week and have seen a huge an ugly technical correction.

Live cattle futures took out the 100-day moving average and are still trading below that level. So, after that technical damage how much recover does he expect?

“I wish I could really confirm that it bottomed here and we can start to recover. For me, we’re still looking at some retracement levels that are below us yet. I’m still a little bit more worried about that. Generally on Fridays, it’s been head for the hills. We got a weekend coming. We don’t know what’s going to happen overseas. You know, at least that that news is a little quieter today and the outside markets are holding their own. That’s what’s helping the cattle a little bit because Fridays have been doom and gloom.”

He says looking at retracement levels on the feeder cattle chart he thinks there is more downside risk.

“It looks like feeders have another $15 room from here before they get to a halfway retracement level. So your support lines are just looking like they’re a little bit a ways underneath us yet, and I think that’s a lot with the anxiety that’s wrapped up around this market right now.”

With Greeley Dark, is the Strike Fear Priced In?
The other anxiety has come from fear of the Greeley, CO beef plant strike on March 16th. However, Varilek says the plant has been dark most of this week and JBS has been shifted cattle to other plants to be slaughtered.

“Yeah, I think there was a lot of cooler clean out that was happening on Thursday and Friday this week. So the word that we had heard is that they were not running. So, you know, and they’re going to be dark on Monday. So I think this is already in the market.”

The key now is how long the strike lasts. He says the market talk is four weeks.

“You can hear plenty of different rumors out there on how long it could be. But what you do like is that, hey, we’ve got some packers that are getting in the black a little bit here. That’s going to help maybe incentivize trying to get it reopened. I mean, we’ve got spring demand coming on us hot and heavy. We’re what, a week away from the first day of spring. I would think that that might help out. “

Packers Pressure Cash Market
In the meantime, packers regained some leverage against the producers and that led to lower cash trade this week.

According to Varilek most of it was $235 live in the South, which is $3 to $5 lower depending on the location. Northern live prices were also at $235, down $5 from last week and dressed prices were at $372, down $8.

“They’ve (packers) been able to drop this cash market and we have some willing sellers. Once the cash market started to slip, everything’s starting to feel uncertain with war happening. As I had alluded to, we have large cattle, big cattle and a lot of those cattle hit the show list here in the North. So producers were saying okay it’s time for me to clean up,” he explains.

Choice Beef Prices Near $400
With higher gas prices and economic fears there has also been talk about how that is eroding consumer beef demand. Throw on top of that the fact that Choice boxed beef is nearing $400. However, Varilek says so far he is seeing no evidence consumers are backing away.

“It’s a little early yet. It’s a little bit nerve wracking that, yes, these energy prices shot higher and fast. So the fact that it went up so fast, if we don’t see any relief here, say over a couple of weeks, two, three weeks, then it could start to show up. But immediately, no, we’re not not seeing the effects of it right away, in my opinion there.”

Hogs See Profit Taking
Lean hog futures are lower again on Friday with profit taking and fund selling as the summer month neared the contract highs earlier in the week. Varilek says the futures premium to the Lean Hog Index got too wide and so there is a correction taking place.

He says the market has rallied on talk of disease concerns but the slaughter pace will need to slow down as proof of lower supplies.

“We need to see some proof now that these numbers are tighter you know because the cash market’s not rallying as fast as uh as these funds want it to. So, couldn’t get through and make new highs, just didn’t quite have the confidence to do it. We’re finding ourselves on a pretty good correction here.”

Grains Correcting with Energy Markets, Farmer Selling
Grain markets are lower in tandem with the correction in the energy markets early Friday. Varilek says with the big run up this week it is understandable to see some profit taking heading into the weekend.

However, there has also been some farmer selling that has picked up.

“It was a nice opportunity for farmers and what that did is you saw Dec corn get right near $5 and a lot of farmers saying wow i can’t believe i got that high I should be looking at some selling opportunities here. Hearing lots of questions about what do I do with all of my old crop, starting to move some of that. So a little bit of pressure from farmer selling,” he explains.

However, if the Iran conflict flares over the weekend and crude oil shoots back up, the grains will likely follow he says.

Cattle Plunge on Economic Fears, JBS Plant Dark: How Low Do Prices Fall?

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 15:13:40 GMT

Cattle are sharply lower Monday with hogs following. Grains are higher.

Cattle Tank on Economic Uncertainty
Cattle futures are sharply lower on Monday with feeder cattle touching limit down at one point on economic uncertainty according to Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek. He says futures gapped lower on the open and traded sharply lower with live cattle gapping below key support at the 50 and 100 day moving averages. “Uncertainty is bearish cattle. That’s just what it is, folks.”

He explains the risk off selling in the stock market, specifically the S&P, and higher crude oil futures are heavily weighing on the market. “You’re looking at energy costs. The fear here would be that, you know, if you’ve got a budget, so much is going to go to put gas in your car to go to work or cost to heat your home, all the rest. You know, is that going to translate into creating some recessionary worry or you know disposable income changing,” he says.

Funds Liquidating
He says this isn’t a fundamental or a supply problem but fund managers are liquidating due to the fear in the market and the volatility. “You’re going to go like gee whiz i think maybe I’ll find some calmer water to swim in instead of trying to figure out you know day to day what’s going on here especially when so much of it is impacted by a 24/7 situation like we have here in the Middle East right now.”

JBS Plant Dark This Week
Also adding pressure to cattle futures is the news that the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO, will be dark this week. Kooima says, “I would say that they’ve reached a significant impasse in negotiations. The way the deal was set up, the way the agreement had been, we all know that the union had voted a couple of weeks ago already to strike but they were willing to keep working while they negotiated.”

However, the vote on Friday was to strike in seven days he adds, “They are required to give a seven day notice if they were going to walk out so that was the vote that happened on Friday afternoon they voted to walk out so they gave the management seven days notice manager said you know what don’t bother even coming in for those seven days so they closed at Greeley.”

He says their other major plants are going to kill Saturday, so that’ll make up a part of it, not all. Negotiations will resume and hopefully they will reach a resolution. However, he thinks with packers losing money it may give the packer leverage.

“I mean, it doesn’t take too much of an imagination to think that if you’re going to have a work stoppage, maybe now wouldn’t be such a bad time if you’re management. On the other side, though, you’ve got worries about, you know, can you retain your employees? You’ve got to be a reliable supplier of beef to your customers.” So he says it’s complicated.

Lower Cash Cattle
Cash trade also developed at lower money on Friday with mostly $240 paid in the South and North, so down $2 to $4 from last week. Some dressed trade at $$380 was also reported, down $3.

“I was kind of relieved that we could get $240. Bought a lot of cattle around here at “240. I’m kind of intimated with you here on that. I worry a little bit that we’re not killing the available supply. I know supply is tight, but is it this tight? These kind of slaughters that we’ve had the last two weeks, especially, my goodness. I mean, you would say that it was Christmas. I mean, that’s how light that kill has been. And if you look at the average weights, they’re big. We did sell some cattle at $240, which is lower, but at least we got some cattle sold.”

Futures Take Out Support
The live cattle futures took out major chart support on Monday so how much technical damage is done? Kooima says, “We gapped through the 50, the 100 day moving averages. Halfway back on April cattle is in that $225 range. And that’s another $3.50 lower than where the market’s sitting right now. I think we go at least there.”

He says he hopes the big futures discount to cash will eventually hold the market.

Hogs Fall With Cattle, But More Resilient
The hog markets fell with cattle futures Monday morning but have been more resilient than cattle because of the growing disease issues in the country.

“There’s another round of disease, you know, affecting isowean prices, feeder pig prices, you know, for what the prospects will look like for the kind of supply we all have for fed hogs in the summer when demand typically is quite good. So, you know, I think that that’s part of the reason why we’re here already,” he says.

However, the other supportive factor is pork is a cheaper protein than beef.

Grains Make New Highs for the Move
Grains markets were all higher Monday, although off of overnight trade. The markets have been hitting new highs for the move adding in inflationary fears says Kooima.

“A lot of it is higher crude oil. Plus, are we going to be able to get normal export activity out of that Middle East area or not with the Strait closed? Will the cost of fertilizer impact our new crop corn plantings? December corn is stronger than the old crop today. I’m sure that that’s part of the reason.”

However, he cautions that when crude oil starts to move the grain market could quickly retreat so he is suggesting putting in price floors with options.

How Far Will Corn Acreage Drop?
With concerns about getting the last 10% to 15% of fertilizer in place and with soaring prices there may be a switch out of some corn acres. How much?

Kooima says in Iowa many farmers can use manure so planting intensions won’t budge. But nationally, he is projecting 93 million acres of corn verses the 98.8 million planted last year.

“There’s some areas that will be 20% loss on some of the fringe parts of the corn belt, especially when you get a little bit south and then get into the southeast. Sorghum’s had a big rally. When you get in these areas that are subject to this rust and all this other disease stuff further south, they’ve really got hit with that. They’re probably looking for a reason anyway to get out of it, whether it’s fertilizer or not.”

Can Cattle Stay Resilient With the S&P Correcting: Grains Rally With Crude Oil

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 16:07:47 GMT

Cattle were lower early Friday, with hogs and grains higher.

Can Cattle Remain Resilient?
Cattle futures were lower on Friday morning in tandem with the lower stock market. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the uncertainty of the war in Iran has caused some reallocation of money this week. It has been coming out of markets like the metals, plus the DOW and S&P and going into especially crude oil which has seen a $20 rally this week.

Varilek says the correction in the stock market has broke the cattle futures several times but the market continues to claw its way back and close above key support on the charts. Can that continue? Varilek says, “So cattle market has been resilient. That is absolutely the word to use this last week because I think there was plenty of stories and uncertainty folding around in that market. However, there was somebody really protecting that market and there was plenty of rumors around who is doing this who is there a packer that short bought cattle? You know we don’t get to know that but it kept fighting its way back and now today getting this break. And I think this is finally, hey, we’re looking at a stock market that’s continuing to correct. The war is the front of the storylines all day here. And it just doesn’t look like that’s going to end real quick. I think that there’s just more that’s got to happen yet. It’s not going to be the we’re in and out. We got this job done. Good job, boys. Bring them home. Now it’s extending just more uncertainty and scared.”

Higher Gas Prices Hurt Beef Demand?
With crude oil up $20 in a week that is being seen at the gas pump by consumers. So is there fear about demand backing off for beef? He says, “Demand was such a slam dunk. Hey we’re gonna have such a great spring no problem everybody’s gonna grill, stock markets at record highs and now this just throws that little wrinkle in there. With energy prices surging you know you you can hear a few stories here and there well people are starting to line up the gas pump a little bit making sure they’re filled up and we get into bunker mode when some of this happens.” So it’s putting a question market around demand.

Plant Strike Uncertainty
At the same time is there still concern about whether or not the JSB plant in Greeley, CO, is going to strike? Varilek says they are supposed to vote today but the outcome is unclear. “I think everybody wishes we knew more about what’s happening with the Greeley plant. But yeah, the news, you get rumors that circulate around in this market and it’s fought it off. Great. But latest is that they’re meeting today, this afternoon, possibly.” He says it would be positive for the market if it gets resolved and would hopefully help bolster chain speed and cash trade.

“We might get some cash boost in the market as they might need to buy some cattle again. I mean that was kind of the rumor why the market was running a little bit because hey there’s some people that need some cattle. So, i think that would help us out and we would love to just get that story behind us because there’s so many other you know things that we got to focus on right now,” he says.

Who Has Leverage?
In the meantime, the packers have been throwing out low cash bids at $235 he says, to try to break the psychology of the market. So who wins out or blinks first?

Varilek says, “You know, this cash market isn’t, you know, feeling as good as it was. So we’ve got producers that are making cattle big. It’s paying us to do it as the feeders are high the feed has been cheap so I will just make them bigger. I think we’re finally getting to the point we saw some very light kills here as of recent and now the packer’s getting a little bit more leverage. We got the low ball $235 bids and then there was a few you know yards that were trying to get $240 yesterday could not
get it so we’ll kind of see who blinks first.”

However, he thinks the packers may have the leverage until the weights get cleaned up. “And that’s what needs to happen. So not feeling as great about our cash market here going into this week. And you hope some of it happens. Some of these guys get it cleaned up because if we don’t. get a big cash trade then there’s going to be more big ones next week on the show lists,” he adds.

Chart Support Needs to Hold
So far this week the 100-day moving average has held on the charts and so today the close will be critical. “This last break that we had, you know, last week, we’ve got some lows down there that are going to be pretty key support. You know, it could be a pretty important line below those 100-day moving averages. So you’re looking at, you know, $228.50 on the April,” according to Varilek.

Hogs See More Profit Taking?
Lean hog futures were lower on Thursday on profit taking but he says there is not much new to push the hogs lower. “I’m just a broken record. I think the disease stories are still out there. You get some horrifying news out of a place and it circulates around the market. So we hear about it. And I think that’s still the main thing, the tighter supply. I think the funds can still hold pretty good. If we start seeing some broken up trend lines, then it could happen to get a little bit worse, but I don’t see that happening for a while yet. I’m still feeling confident in some upside on the hogs.”

Grains Rally With Crude Oil
Grains are also up Friday morning with new highs for the move in both corn and soybeans. The buying by funds is an inflation play as crude oil makes new highs. “Yes, that is what is pushing these markets up. And it’s going to be a nice shot in the arm here. We’ve already got farmers starting to look at this and say, hey, I didn’t know this opportunity was coming. I thought maybe it would be weather or something but this is maybe something that the grains needed just to give us some opportunities to to do something,” he explains.

However, he doesn’t want to pull the trigger to quickly but says farmers need to start pricing some grain to help their balance sheets. “We’ll be watching the energy markets and the outside markets close.”

How High Could Grains Go?
However, if crude oil keeps rising to $100, how high could grains go as a follower? He says corn may have a shot at getting above $5 and the market is already above $12 on beans but says it is anyone’s guess.

But with money coming out of the equities it is finding a home in the grain markets. “It is good to have them on your side at least when they’re when they’re on the pushing it the way you want it and those charts are starting to look like somewhere if a fund was looking at it at some generally low historical prices say and we’ve got an uptrend happening that could be an easy place for them to try to go,” he adds.

Diesel Prices Spike on Iran Conflict Just Ahead of Planting Season

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:56:34 GMT

Diesel prices spiked more than 60¢ combined on Monday and Tuesday.

It is a direct result of the supply cutoff through the Strait of Hormuz, says Alex Hodes, director of market strategy – energy with StoneX Financial Inc. Refined product movement is concentrated in the Strait, making this one of the biggest global disruptions for the oil market.

“A large amount of refined products, specifically diesel and jet fuel, transport through this Strait. That closure is causing panic in buyers of Middle Eastern diesel, one of which is Europe, which is kind of the primary maker of diesel prices globally. That’s dragging on NYMEX heating oil diesel prices as well,” Hodes says.

Nationwide Diesel Prices Up Sharply from 2025

After rising 10.8¢/gal. on Monday, the national average price of diesel rose another 8.1¢ Tuesday afternoon. It reached $3.929/gal. — a rise of almost 20¢ in two days, writes Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a post on X.

Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows the national average diesel price on Tuesday was up 31¢/gal. from a year ago.

Meanwhile on Wednesday morning, NYMEX heating oil futures were up nearly 68¢ from Friday at $3.26/gal. Diesel prices are based on these futures.

When compared to a year ago, NYMEX heating oil prices were up over 90¢/gal. and have risen $1.21 since December 31.

(Barchart )

They Could Climb Higher

Hodes thinks there is more upside potential for diesel fuel prices.

“Yes, I think there’s still risks that are in the market and have not really come to fruition quite yet. So ultimately, with the Strait of Hormuz closure, the question will be how long will that last,” Hodes says.

Some relief may come following a Tuesday afternoon post from President Donald Trump. He ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade at a reasonable price. He added that, if necessary, the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the Strait.

While that will help lower the insurance costs to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait, the shipping industry sees this as only a partial solution to the historic crisis.

“One other factor is that several Middle Eastern refineries have been attacked, and that’s over 1 million barrels per day almost offline due to those attacks. So, additional Middle Eastern refineries could be at risk, and that’s another bullish factor there,” Hodes says.

Diesel Prices Rise More Than Other Energy Products

He adds diesel has risen disproportionately more than other energy products. This is partly due to tighter global inventories.

“But the biggest one is that there’s more diesel products flowing through the Strait of Hormuz than gasoline or some of the lighter counterparts,” Hodes says.

And Asian refineries, particularly in Japan and China, have also announced they could reduce run rates at their refineries if the disruption lasts.

The Price Hike Comes at Crunch Time for Farmers

The higher prices come as diesel demand ramps up for planting.

“It is a tough time to lock in fuel costs specifically, you know, in the start of March now. So, it’s not a great time to be a consumer of fuel,” Hodes says.

Unfortunately, few farmers locked in diesel prices when they hit lows in December and early January. This was just before the polar vortex rallied prices.

It is another expense they can’t afford when farmers are moving into the 2026 growing season already facing slim-to-negative profit margins.

Conflict in Iran Ripples Through Global Fertilizer Markets, Raises Prices Even Higher

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 16:28:09 GMT

Update: President Trump took to social media on Tuesday to say he has ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of all Maritime Trade.

He also says the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.

"Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade... If necessary, the United States Navy will begin… pic.twitter.com/pIJyFwL78j
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 3, 2026

The joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran has triggered a significant ripple effect across global markets.

While crude oil prices soared on Monday, the global fertilizer market is also rallying. This comes as conflict threatens the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.

This narrow waterway is located between Oman and Iran and links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It serves as a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy and also handles a substantial portion of the world’s fertilizer supply.

Key for Fertilizer Supplies

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer for StoneX, notes the Strait of Hormuz accounts for nearly 25% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer.

(StoneX)

“We have got three of the top 10 global urea exporters that sit in the Persian Gulf,” Linville says. “Three of the top 10 anhydrous exporters sit in the Persian Gulf. One of the world’s top five phosphate exporters sits in the Persian Gulf. And with that Strait of Hormuz continuing to stay shut out to safe passage, those tons just don’t matter anymore. They don’t exist until the Strait reopens.”

Conflict Increases Already Historically High Fertilizer Prices

Global fertilizer prices rose immediately following the attack. They moved in tandem with higher energy and natural gas prices, which are the primary feedstocks for nitrogen products.

Fertilizer prices were already at historical highs prior to the conflict. Linville reports urea markets saw the sharpest increases, followed by phosphate.

In New Orleans (NOLA), physical barges for April urea traded at $457 per ton on Friday. By Monday, prices had jumped to approximately $550 per ton.

“We have had prices up about $70 a ton from Friday afternoon trade. It’s been significant,” Linville says.

UAN and anhydrous prices have not reacted as violently, but phosphate values are not far behind.

“Phosphate, we’ve got that price up about $30 a ton from the last trade we had seen. Again, [I’m] a little surprised it’s not up more. That’s, I guess, a thankful thing that’s not up more, but I think more increases are coming. Really, the only major fertilizer that hasn’t been impacted so far is potash. But you can even make a case for that given Israel and Jordan’s importance,” he adds.

Corn-to-Fertilizer Ratio Stretches Further

He says the corn-to-fertilizer price ration was already one of the worst in history, and this has added insult to injury.

“We were already the second or third worst urea-to-corn ratio that we had been for this time of the year, this part of the calendar. This just moves that higher,” Linville explains.

(StoneX )

Timing Threats for Spring Planting

Higher prices aren’t the only problem: Supply is in jeopardy. Linville says, from a timing standpoint, it could not be worse for agriculture.

A multi-week conflict could keep some supply from getting to the U.S. in time for spring planting.

“It takes 30 days to get a vessel of urea to load in the Persian Gulf, sail it over here, hit U.S. shores, and then another three to four weeks to move that product into the interior of the nation to a point where the farmer can put their hands on it,” Linville says.

This means a vessel loading today might not be available until May 1. The window for spring application is closing quickly.

While healthy fertilizer import volumes in February provide some cushion, the industry could see a shift in acreage. Some farmers may move from corn to soybeans if nitrogen supplies do not arrive in the Corn Belt in time.

Senate Votes to Limit Foreign Land Ownership

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 20:24:53 GMT

Roughly 37.6 million acres of U.S. ag land is foreign owned, according to USDA. The majority of these deeds are held by Canada, Netherlands, Italy, United Kingdom, Germany and China. However, select purchases of U.S. land could come to an end following a Senate vote this week.

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted 91-7 in favor of an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2024 that, if made law, would prohibit China, Russia, North Korea and Iran from purchasing U.S. land.

Also included in the amendment is a requirement for the president to submit a report to Congress on any waiver granted to a prohibited country.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who helped push the legislative changes, says the time for foreign landownership action is now.

“These four adversaries view America as their top competitor and only wish to gain advantage and opportunities to surveil our nation’s capabilities and resources,” says Rounds. “This commonsense provision will make our homeland more secure.”

The amendments will now make their way to the House floor. If the House majority votes in favor of the provisions, they will become law.