Imports and Exports

Trump Plans to Tackle Beef Prices with More Imports

Mon, 11 May 2026 18:06:39 GMT

Update: Late Monday night, the Wall Street Journal reported the president delayed his actions.

Tuesday morning, in response to the delayed signing of the executive orders, a White House official says, “The President is committed to lowering beef and other grocery costs for everyday Americans, and the Administration is accordingly fine-tuning potential executive actions to alleviate temporary shortages in the domestic beef market.”

In response to the potential expansion of imports, R-CALF USA issued a statement sharing the organizations concerns with the potential 200-day suspension of certain tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) for beef.

On Monday, a White House official confirmed the President Trump would sign two executive orders to address short-term supply issues in the U.S. beef market by expanding imports and supporting the renewal of America’s domestic cattle herd, which is currently at a multidecade low.

According to a Wall Street Journal article , “The Trump administration is opening the way to import more steaks and ground beef from overseas, part of a broader effort to address record-high beef prices.”

The WSJ article explains the administration is planning to temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports as soon as Monday, according to people familiar with the matter. “The move would suspend the annual tariff-rate quota — which applies a higher tariff rate after a certain level of beef imports are reached — on all beef-exporting nations, enabling more of the product to enter the U.S. at lower tariff rates.”

Beef prices have seen sizable year over year increases for some time. According to Reuters , although prices for eggs, milk and other grocery staples have fallen since Trump took office in January 2025, beef prices have continued to climb.

Last October, Trump ordered a quadrupling of beef imports from Argentina , and a month later removed his 40% punitive tariff on Brazilian beef and coffee.

Reuters says the moves did little to reverse beef ‌prices, ⁠which are up 12.1% year-over-year in April, according to the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index. Beef is more than 16% more expensive than when Trump returned to office in January 2025.

(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED)

What Does Monday’s Announcement Mean

“There is considerable uncertainty about the details,” says Derrell Peel, State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. “It’s not clear whether this only applies to over-quota tariffs or to the 10% retaliatory tariffs that everyone faces. In any event, I don’t believe this will have large impacts to reduce beef prices in the U.S.”

Peel predicts it may only impact Brazil and perhaps Paraguay. Otherwise it may impact Australia and others as well.

“The market is basically determining beef imports now, albeit with some tariffs,” he explains. “Reducing tariffs might have a minor impact on the quantity of imports but I think it is minimal. If it does have any impacts it will marginally reduce lean processing beef prices and thus ground beef. No impact on steaks.”

David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and Extension specialist for livestock and food product marketing, explains the U.S. has TRQs on beef from a bunch of countries.

“The way it works is that the country can export to us at a low tariff until the quota is filled and then the tariff jumps up to a higher level for the rest of the year,” he explains. “For example, imports from Brazil come in at a very low tariff until the quota is triggered and then the tariff jumps to 26.4%.”

Anderson explains by suspending the TRQ the administration has announced, effectively, a lower tariff on imported beef.

“The majority of what we import is lean trimmings for ground beef so that might suggest any impact might be more on the cull cow side of things. I don’t expect much, if any, price impact from this,” Anderson predicts. “These countries also export beef to China and other places so how much is really available to send here? Existing contracts with other buyers in other countries may impact how much is available right away to come here.”

He adds China has recently announced TRQs on beef and the ones for Australia and Brazil are likely to quite restrictive later in the year.

“That indicates that we might get more imports from those countries later in 2026 due to the Chinese tariff restricting what they can sell in China due to relative prices including the tariff,” he summarizes.

Beef Imports Today

Peel says, “Beef imports increased 18% year over year in 2025 and are up 61.4% since 2022, the year of record U.S. beef production and when the current market run began. Total beef production in 2025 was down 3.6% year over year and is down 8.1% since 2022. More important relative to beef imports, production of nonfed beef (from cull cows and bulls) was down 8.0% last year and is down 24.8% since 2022. In fact, nonfed beef production in 2025 was the smallest total since 2005.”

Peel says in a recent Cow-Calf Corner article , increased beef imports are the market response to declining lean beef supplies due to decreased nonfed beef production since most beef imports are lean processing beef. Higher prices of lean beef in the U.S. prompts increased imports from any of several potential beef import sources.

“The amount of beef imports from various sources depends on several factors including: the country’s ability to produce and export; other export markets for the country; and relative price competitiveness of the country, which depends on exchange rates and tariffs the country faces,” Peel explains.

Peel summarizes the top importing countries since 2022:

Australia — up 251.1%
Canada — up 4.3%
Brazil — up 99.9%
Mexico — down 4%
New Zealand — up 37.2%
Uruguay — up 158.8%

Figure 1: U.S. Beef Import, 2019-2025, Million Pounds, Carcass Weight

(Oklahoma State University)

“Record high U.S. ground beef prices continue to be the focus of political discussion along with the possibility of increased beef imports to address unprecedented lean beef prices,” Peel says. “It is important to remember that beef imports are limited only by market forces that determine the total quantity and the mix of sources supplying beef to the U.S. market.”

The latest data for January show some interesting changes in beef imports. Total January beef imports were up 7.7% year over year and up 86% compared to January 2022, see Figure 2.

Figure 2: Beef Import, January. Total January beef imports were up 7.7% year over year and up 86% compared to January 2022.

(Oklahoma State University)

Peel points out the ost noticeable in Figure 2 is the jump in the other category, up 119% from one year ago.

“The biggest part of these other sources is Paraguay, a new player in the beef import market,” he says. “January beef imports from Paraguay were up 147.4% year over year and accounted for 61.1% of the other category and 10.8% of total monthly beef imports. Paraguay has only been exporting to the U.S. since 2024,”

According to Peel Paraguay was able to capture a significant portion of the “Other Country” quota that Brazil has dominated the past four years. January beef imports from Brazil were down 15.1%year over year. Combined January imports from Brazil and Paraguay were up 5.3% year over year. He says this illustrates that markets are determining the total level of imports and also the distribution of sources of beef imports.

Argentina has been the focus of much of the political discussion about beef imports.

Argentina represented 26.1% of the other category and 2.3% of total beef imports in 2025. Peel says Argentina has been granted an expanded tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 2026. Total beef imports from Argentina in 2025 were more than double the previous quota and were limited by market conditions rather than the quota. In January 2026, imports of Argentina were up 122.5% year over year but still represented just 16.1% of other country imports and 2.8% of total January imports (Figure 2).

Peel adds It’s not clear whether Argentina will be able to fill the additional quota this year. The increase would be at the expense of domestic consumption and/or other export markets in Argentina. Increase in beef imports from Argentina would likely displace some imports from other sources.

“Expected growth in beef imports in 2026 will continue to be determined by market forces and may include some relative increase in imports from Argentina,” Peel summarizes.

Your Next Reads:

The New Ag Economy: Why This Downturn is a Structural Shift, Not Just a Cycle

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 21:22:18 GMT

What You Need to Know:

Structural Evolution: This downturn is a permanent market shift, not just a temporary cycle.
Friend-Shoring: Trade is moving toward geopolitical allies to ensure supply chain resilience.
Aggressive Cost-Cutting: Farmers are doubling generic input use and delaying machinery purchases to protect margins.
Financial Resilience: Better management and working capital make today far more stable than the 1980s.
Premium Protein Demand: GLP-1 medications are driving consumers toward smaller, higher-quality meat portions

As the industry enters the third year of this downturn, farmers and agribusinesses are questioning if a recovery is on the two-year horizon. While cyclical behavior is normal, two economists suggest the structural evolution within crop protection, machinery, technology, livestock and other individual sectors is creating a different kind of staying power for those who survive the recovery.

The Evolution of the Cycle

When characterizing the current economic cycle in agriculture, historical patterns provide a necessary baseline, yet the present landscape is defined by unique pressures. Typical agricultural cycles consist of roughly six years of expansion followed by four years of decline. Currently, the market is navigating a “corrective period,” returning to long-run averages.

The drivers of growth are typically demand shocks — export surges, fuel demand or policy shifts such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, Wes Davis, ag economist at Meridian Ag Advisors, notes the current environment is an intersection of traditional contraction and sector-specific evolution.

“What I think we’re experiencing right now is that typical cycle behavior where we see growth in some business firms, and then some contraction and pullback to adjust to the cycle going back to more of the long-run average,” Davis explains. “I think we’re also seeing evolution of individual sectors within the market where there’s adjustments happening because of the industry itself.”

In other words, this isn’t just a cycle — it’s also a structural shift.

Change Fatigue and Modern Volatility

Farmers aren’t strangers to volatility, but global trade disruptions, policy shifts and rising competition, especially from Brazil, are layering uncertainty onto already volatile markets.
Farmers are grappling with “change fatigue,” a byproduct of the high velocity of information and extreme price swings that dwarf the relative stability of the early 2000s.

“When I go talk to any industry group right now, the phrase that I hear is ‘change fatigue’, and I feel that. Every couple minutes, something shifts,” says Trey Malone, Purdue University ag econ professor. “But to be clear, it’s not that the farm economy isn’t used to volatility, it’s just the uncertainty and the volatility now is, like, ‘hold my beer relative’ to the old volatility.”

Malone attributes this to layers of uncertainty created by global trade and policy. The rise of Brazilian production, coinciding with the disruption of U.S.-China trade relations, has created a permanent state of flux. This sentiment is reflected in the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer, which shares a higher correlation with the Small Business Index (.5) than with actual commodity prices. This suggests farmers view themselves primarily as small business owners facing broad economic pressures rather than just price-takers.

“We don’t see very strong correlations even with lagged soybean prices and corn prices,” Malone notes. “The world is more complicated than just looking at what happened in the market yesterday and gauging how farmers feel.”

Global Competitiveness and the Trade Reallocation

A primary concern for U.S. producers is their position as low-cost providers. While the U.S. maintains an infrastructure advantage that lowers the cost of getting products to export ports, Brazil continues to close the gap.

“It’s a fair question farmers ask a lot: Are we actually the ones who are the low-cost producers, and do we still have a place in the global market if Brazil continues to lower the cost of production and transport their grain to export terminals?” Davis asks.

However, Davis points out that global trade hasn’t shut off; it has reallocated. Only three global regions — North America, Latin America and parts of Southeastern Europe/Central Asia — are net exporters. The rest of the world remains net importers.

“While our trade has kind of shifted around ... that shift has really reallocated stuff in different places. Those calories and products end up going somewhere. It’s just a question of where,” he says.

The Shift to “Friend-Shoring” and Resilient Supply Chains

The industry is moving from “just-in-time” (hyper-lean) procurement to “just-in-case” (inventory-heavy) strategies, a lesson reinforced by the pandemic. This shift is accompanied by “friend-shoring,” where the U.S. prioritizes trade with geopolitical allies.

“We’ve gone from offshoring to onshoring to nearshoring to friendshoring,” Malone explains. “We’ve got a paper that’ll be coming out ... where we document friend-shoring in ag and food supply chains. Over the last 10 years, there’s been a shift where we mostly in the U.S. trade with other people who vote like us in the WTO. That’s kind of one way to measure friends.”

This resilience is also visible in crop protection. In 2019, 80% of active ingredients were sourced from China. Today, that is closer to 60%, with manufacturing shifting to India and domestic sites. Davis calls these “geopolitically resilient” supply chains.

The Rise of Generics and Decision Paralysis

The economic downturn is fundamentally changing the business model for input providers. Farmers are aggressively cutting costs, leading to a massive surge in generic usage.

“The latest survey I saw shows about 60% of farmers use generics today. That was about 30% to 40% just 5 years ago,” Davis says. This forces companies to pivot from differentiation to operational volume.

In the machinery sector, high costs and economic uncertainty have led to “decision paralysis.” Farmers are extending the life of their equipment, treating machinery replacement as the most controllable variable in managing annual ROI. Davis notes the U.S. ag equipment cycle is currently 15 to 20 percentage points lower than typical low points, driven by this hesitation. Furthermore, there is significant skepticism toward subscription-based technology models.

“Farmers don’t terribly love this idea, and I think the other interesting thought here is I’m not sure that retailers like selling them either,” Malone adds.

AI: The “Undergraduate Intern”

While artificial intelligence (AI) is a major talking point, its current role in agriculture is more supportive than transformative. Malone views AI as a “highly capable undergraduate intern” — useful for processing information but incapable of replacing the trust and risk management provided by human advisors.

“I don’t think you need to be replacing your agronomist. I think your mediocre agronomist just got OK,” Malone says, noting while LLMs can pass CCA exams, they cannot manage the risk of a wrong decision. “The risk management value proposition of an in-person Claude, or whoever, is probably going to win out because there’s still a risk.”

Currently, the adoption gap is wide: While 75% of agribusiness managers see potential in AI, only 4% have implemented it, according to a Purdue University survey in 2025.

Livestock and the GLP-1 Impact

The livestock sector is facing a unique demand shift driven by weight-loss medications (GLP-1s). This is leading to “premiumization.” As consumers eat smaller portions, they are opting for higher-quality cuts.

“The explosion in demand for protein is just shocking,” Malone says. “What GLP-1s do to that calorie count is they are all shifting toward premium cuts. You don’t care how much it costs because you’re only going to have seven bites of it. But you’re going to have a steak. That premiumization is going to really, really take off in the next 10 years.”

Conversely, the hype surrounding “fake meat” has largely faded, proving to be more of an investor-led phenomenon than a market-driven one.

Financial Stability: Not the 1980s

Despite the downturn, the financial health of the American farmer remains more stable than during the crisis of the 1980s. Currently, 10% to 12% of farmers are in a “tight” financial position , compared to 20% to 30% in the 80s.

“We do have a completely different, more professional ag workforce than we did back then,” Malone says. “The farm policy we have right now does not necessarily match what we need for the future, but all of these things make me think we’re in a much more stable position.”

Farmers have built-in “shock absorbers,” Davis adds, including off-farm income and working capital built up during the expansion years. However, in his research Davis has seen how alternative financing is becoming a major tool for the 50% of farmers who use it — either to manage stress or, for larger operations, to leverage relationships with retailers.

Strategic Reassessment: Winning at the Bottom

The experts agree the “bottom of the cycle” is the time for professionalization and upskilling. Surviving — and thriving — will require sharper management. It is an opportunity to reassess farm transitions and management disciplines, such as financial management, accounting and planning, which become critical in tight margins.

“Farmers are going to have to get smarter and get more creative with how they manage,” Malone says. “This is a good opportunity to take a step back and think about what the strategy needs to be moving forward.”

Davis emphasizes relationships are solidified during these periods: “Farmers are going to remember the folks who were around when they were in the bottom of the cycle, and who were there to support them. The best farmers will continue to get better ... I get excited about what we can look like as we come out of this cycle.”

So Is This Ag Cycle Different?

These experts say yes as every cycle presents its own unique reshaping of future opportunities.

To download the full report on why this ag cycle is different and what it means for your operation, click here .

The Next Guatemala? USMEF Sees Massive Upside for U.S. Beef and Pork in Ecuador

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 19:22:33 GMT

Ecuador recently became the ninth country to sign an agreement on reciprocal trade with the U.S. And while it will take some time to implement, once in place, the deal will greatly expand opportunities for U.S. beef and pork in Ecuador, according to U.S. Meat Export Federation Vice President for Economic Analysis Erin Borror.

Tariffs of 20% on beef and 45% on pork are mostly phased out, although there are exceptions on pork.
A 30% tariff on processed pork products which will remain in place.
The agreement recognizes all USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) inspected facilities as eligible for export to Ecuador, removing the need for individual facility approvals.

“The tariff on beef is basically 20% and that’s phased to zero in the agreement over three years,” Borror explains. “For pork, tariffs of 45% are mostly phased out. There are some exceptions on further processed products and sausages that will see tariffs remain at 30%.”

Borror says one of the key wins in these reciprocal trade agreements is getting countries to recognize FSIS, the U.S. food safety authority, as the competent authority.

“They will recognize all FSIS-inspected facilities as eligible to export, rather than going through onerous questionnaires, plant-by-plant audits and maintaining plant lists which have gotten to be unmanageable,” she says.

Borror expects export growth to be similar to what was seen in Guatemala after passage of the Central America Free Trade Agreement.

“Both of those countries have a population of close to 18 million people,” she says. “Their GDP per capita is somewhere close to $7,000, so very similar. And if we take Guatemala, U.S. beef export growth from 2006 to 2025, saw growth from $3 million to $105 million. For pork, the market went from $10 million to $148 million.”

In 2025, the U.S. exported virtually no pork to Ecuador and only $3 million in beef. She says there is great potential in Ecuador.

A Trade Win for Beef and Pork: U.S. and Taiwan Sign Agreement on Reciprocal Trade

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 15:31:22 GMT

Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced the signing of an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade between the United States and Taiwan that includes significant market access gains for U.S. red meat.

“The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with Taiwan will eliminate tariff and nontariff barriers facing U.S. exports to Taiwan, furthering opportunities for American farmers, ranchers, fishermen, workers, small businesses and manufacturers,” Ambassador Jamieson Greer said . “This agreement also builds on our longstanding economic and trade relationship with Taiwan and will significantly enhance the resilience of our supply chains, particularly in high-technology sectors.”

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins praised the agreement on X, saying this will open up real markets and boost opportunities for rural communities.

New trade deal with our partner, Taiwan!
🇺🇸🤝🇹🇼

THANK YOU @POTUS and @USTradeRep. Under the new U.S.–Taiwan Reciprocal Trade Agreement, Taiwan is cutting or eliminating tariffs on nearly all U.S. agricultural exports — from animal protein like beef, pork, and dairy to corn,… https://t.co/44xmlzP04o
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) February 13, 2026

U.S. Beef’s Potential to Grow Export Opportunities
National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) says this will strengthen one of the most important and fastest-growing markets for U.S. beef. Taiwan is the fifth largest market for U.S. beef, with exports valued at about $650 million, and the U.S. is the largest supplier of beef to Taiwan.

“There is still potential for further growth with the increased access for all U.S. beef products, including those in high demand for yakiniku barbecue and trendy burger concepts,” U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) said. “The elimination of tariffs on U.S. beef will definitely improve our competitiveness.”

Foreign markets play a critical role in producer profitability with beef exports accounting for more than $415 per fed cattle processed in 2024, NCBA President Gene Copenhaver explained.

“Strong, science-based trade agreements are essential to adding value for U.S. cattle producers, and Taiwan has emerged as one of the strongest international markets for U.S. beef,” Copenhaver said. “Duty-free access improves competitiveness and provides long-term certainty for producers who depend on export markets to maximize the value of every animal. American cattle producers look forward to this expanded market access for years to come thanks to the work of President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer.”

Securing Greater Market Access for U.S. Pork
It’s also a step forward for the U.S. pork industry as U.S. pork has been “widely disadvantaged in Taiwan,” USMEF said. The EU and Canada currently dominate Taiwan’s pork imports.

“USMEF is optimistic that reducing both tariffs and nontariff barriers will help enable larger U.S. pork exports to Taiwan, as USMEF remains focused on regaining Taiwanese consumer trust in U.S. pork,” USMEF said.

Organizations say this trade deal reinforces science-based standards consistent with the World Organization for Animal Health and Codex Alimentarius.

“I would like to thank President Trump and Ambassadors Greer and Callahan for their hard work,” said Lori Stevermer, a Minnesota pig farmer. “This agreement stands to boost U.S. pork exports by cutting tariffs in half. It also requires Taiwan to follow maximum residue levels (MRLs) set by Codex for ractopamine in pork fat, kidney, liver and muscle. While not always as obvious as a tariff reduction, by accepting USDA FSIS inspections, audits and export certificates, this agreement reduces the nontariff barriers we face and allows opportunities for more plants to export pork. Overall, U.S. pig farmers will have greater market access to a country that loves pork and that’s good for our farms and businesses.”

Additionally, within six months Taiwan must recognize the African swine fever protection zone established by the U.S.

“Our 15-plus year endeavor to break down trade barriers in the high-value market of Taiwan has paid off,” said NPPC president Duane Stateler, an Ohio pork producer. “This means more U.S. pork on international tables and more opportunities and prosperity for American producers.”

Read the Fact Sheet on U.S.-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade

Pork Exports Hold Strong While China Lockout Drags Down Beef Volume

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:01:33 GMT

Exports of U.S. pork remained relatively strong in November but were below the large total reported in November 2024, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports were significantly lower year-over-year, due in large part to the ongoing lockout by China.

Broad-Based Strength Continues for U.S. Pork Exports

“For the month of November, we saw over $70 per head value in pork exports,” says USMEF president and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Latin America continues to shine, led by Mexico. It’s on a definite record pace, and has been all year, and we saw another big month in November.”

Central America has already set a record, Halstrom adds. Pork exports to Guatemala were a “record large” in November and the Dominican Republic saw the largest export month in more than a year. All in all, these results were offset by lower shipments to China, Japan, Canada and Colombia. He says most of this decline was due to lower variety meat shipments to China, where U.S. pork faces retaliatory duties.

“Over the last several months, Korea has had a comeback from earlier in the year,” he reports. “I think all in all, continued broad-based strength on pork exports, continues to be the theme. We’re going to finish out the year when we get to December data with, maybe not a record, but it will be one of the top two or three years ever for pork exports.”

Key U.S. Pork Export Highlights in November

Exports of U.S. pork totaled 254,085 metric tons (mt) in November, down 7% from a year ago but the third largest of 2025.
Exports were valued at $720.8 million, down 8% year-over-year but also the third highest of 2025.
For January through November, pork exports totaled 2.68 million mt, down 3% from the record pace of 2024, while value also fell 3% to $7.65 billion.
January-November exports of pork muscle cuts were just 1% below 2024’s record pace in both volume (2.19 million mt) and value ($6.57 billion).
While down slightly from a year ago, November pork export value per head slaughtered was outstanding at $70.26.
The January-November average was $65.54, down less than 1% from the record pace of 2024.

Beef Exports Take a Step Back in November

“Following an encouraging rebound the previous month, November beef exports took a step back, falling 19% from a year ago to 88,139 mt,” Halstrom says. “The decline was driven primarily by China, where exports remain minimal due to China’s failure to renew registrations for U.S. beef plants and other market-closing factors, but beef exports also trended lower year-over-year to Korea, Mexico, Canada and Taiwan.”

Halstrom says exports were steady to Japan.

“Japan’s had several months in a row with very good results, once again, led by the variety meat side - tongue business, outside skirts, hanging tenders as well saw volumes that were up significantly,” he notes. “But outside of Asia, there’s some other bright spots as well.”

He just returned from Gulfood in Dubai, where U.S. beef exports had a big month into the United Arab Emirates.

“A year ago, we basically were delisted as a country due to some protocols around the import procedures with halal. And that’s all been worked out, and we’re seeing some really good momentum back into, not only the UAE, but the business is booming in food service, especially into regions such as Egypt,” he reports.

Notable U.S. Beef Export Takeaways in November

Export value was down 16% to $736.7 million.
November exports increased year-over-year to Indonesia, Chile, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore and Colombia, and were fairly steady to Japan.
For January through November, beef exports totaled 1.04 million mt, down 12% from the same period in 2024.
Export value was $8.52 billion, down 11%. But when excluding China from these results, exports were down 3% year-over-year in volume and were just 1% lower in value.

A detailed summary of the January-November export results for U.S. pork, beef and lamb is available here.

2025 Beef Imports See 20% Jump During First 10 Months

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 19:26:23 GMT

The latest release of shutdown-delayed trade data provides information on beef and cattle imports and exports through October 2025. Beef imports have been a particular focus in the industry and politically for several months.

For the first 10 months of 2025, beef imports were up 20% year over year (Figure 1). This follows a 24.4% year-over-year increase in 2024. Increased beef imports are the expected market response to declining beef production in the U.S., especially decreased production of nonfed processing beef. Through 2025, U.S. cow slaughter is projected to be down a total of 29.2% from the recent peak in 2022. Beef imports have increased to partially mitigate the resulting decreases in lean processing.

Through October, Australia was the largest source of U.S. beef imports with a 23.6% share of total imports. Brazil, at No. 2, accounted for 19.5% of beef imports, followed by Canada (18.2% share), Mexico (12.3% share), New Zealand (10.8% share) and Uruguay (6.8% share). Despite much political focus on Argentina in the fourth quarter of 2025, Argentina only represents about 25% of the “Other” category in Figure 1, representing 2.2% of total beef imports.

(Oklahoma State University)

Figures 1 and 2 show the dramatic increase in beef imports from both Australia and Brazil since 2022. Figure 2 also illustrates the dramatic difference in the seasonal pattern of beef imports from the two countries.

Beef imports from Brazil are included in the “Other Country” quota. Since 2022, Brazil has moved quickly in January of each year to fill the “Other Country” quota before being subject to over-quota tariffs. The January spikes in imports of Brazilian beef are obvious in Figure 2.

In 2025, a second peak in beef imports from Brazil occurred in May as market values stimulated additional imports despite the over-quota tariffs and additional 10% tariffs imposed in April. However, an additional 40% tariff imposed on Brazil in August did result in sharply lower imports from Brazil in September and October. By the end of November, all the additional tariffs have been removed leaving Brazil with only the over-quota tariff (26.5%) for the remainder of the year.

So far in January 2026, Brazil is moving quickly to fill the “Other Country” quota in the first two weeks of the year with zero tariff. Subsequent imports from Brazil going forward will be subject to the over-quota tariff.

Once again, data will eventually confirm a spike in total beef imports in January as a result. Despite this, the domestic price of 90% lean trimmings in the first full week of January was $401.71 per cwt, up 19.8% from the same period one year ago.

Brazil Surpassing U.S. As Top Beef Producer, Easing Global Supply Squeeze

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 15:53:01 GMT

Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer last year, according to market estimates, after the South American country beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tons, easing a global supply squeeze and helping limit a surge in meat prices.

Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion in 2025, according to government trade data released on Tuesday. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the U.S., where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24,” he said.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4% for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7% drop. The increase of around 800,000 tons was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil’s output will have surpassed U.S. production, which fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, Rising Carcass Weight Drive Output

U.S. beef production will fall a further 0.9% to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA said. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank project a decline in output, but Nogueira said rising productivity could actually boost Brazil’s production by around 300,000 tons.

Almost 28% of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22% in 2025, according to consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” said Barbosa, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.

A drone image shows cattle entering a feedlot at CMA Farm in Barretos, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

(Joel Silva/Reuters)

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry is generating a byproduct known as dried distillers grains that has higher protein than corn and helps cattle fatten faster, analysts said.

Cows are becoming pregnant more often as farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate - the proportion of females that become pregnant during a breeding season - to rise to 54% in 2027 from an expected 50% in 2026.

Better genetics are also improving cattle growth and boosting meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still has not matched the 90% proportion of cattle passing through feedlots as in the U.S., or Australia’s 40%.

If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rose to 66%, equivalent to neighbouring Argentina, the number of calves birthed each year would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96%, they said.

Government data show Brazil has 238 million cattle, well over double the 94 million in the U.S. Higher productivity would allow output to expand without increasing cattle numbers or the area of pasture land. That could ease one economic driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just 4% between 2024 and 2034 while beef production increases 24%, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef production will rise 3.5% and cattle numbers will grow 5% over that period, by USDA estimates.

Brazil Key As Top Producers Scale Down

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

The USDA expects output in the world’s six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4% - the biggest annual drop in decades - after rising 0.4% in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3% to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tons, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2%.

“There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

“We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity,” he said.

(Reporting by Ana Mano in Barretos and Peter Hobson in Canberra; Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Brad Haynes and David Gregorio)

Farmers Need the Certainty Provided Under USMCA More Than Ever, Lawmakers Say

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 15:31:32 GMT

The benefits of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are hard to deny. Kenneth Smith Ramos, a former lead negotiator for the Mexican government who was deeply involved in the negotiation and ratification of USMCA, discussed the mutual benefits USMCA has delivered for the agricultural sectors in both the U.S. and Mexico during the recent USMEF Strategic Planning Conference. Not only has the agreement enhanced food security in both countries, but he said it has also bolstered the profitability of many agricultural sectors through free trade.

The U.S., Canada and Mexico are scheduled for a joint review of the trade agreement in July. Smith, who is now a partner in the regulatory and trade consulting firm AGON, says the possible outcomes of the USMCA review range from a very limited review to the threat of “rupture” if the agreement is reopened and the U.S. threatens to withdraw. He said he anticipates something in between, with portions of USMCA – some of which may be contentious – opened up for renegotiation.

“We see a complex USMCA review, but we do not see a scenario where there is an imminent collapse of the agreement,” Smith said during the conference. “There will be turbulence, but we do not see the plane crashing.”

Smith added that it is critical for the U.S., Mexican and Canadian agricultural sectors to remain vigilant in explaining the benefits of USMCA and the importance of maintaining it as a trilateral pact.

Much Needed Certainty

Congressional Agriculture Trade Caucus cochairs Reps. Jim Costa (D-CA), Dusty Johnson (R-SD), Jimmy Panetta (D-CA), and Adrian Smith (R-NE) led more than 100 members of the House of Representatives in urging the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to “carefully” examine changes to USMCA.

“USMCA was truly a landmark agreement for American Agriculture when it entered force, and its positive impact on U.S. agriculture has yet to reach its maximum benefit,” the members wrote. “At a time when economic challenges threaten the livelihood of family farms, producers need the certainty provided under USMCA more than ever.”

In the Nov. 20 letter to USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer, the lawmakers said the outcome of the review should advance American agriculture and food production. They asked the trade agency to “work closely with Congress and consider the significant positive impact North American trade has on our communities. Any changes to the agreement should be carefully examined to ensure U.S. agriculture is not negatively impacted.”

Lawmakers pointed out that USMCA streamlined compliance measures and harmonized regulations, thereby generating cost savings for U.S. farmers, producers, and ranchers. In 2024, the U.S. was the world’s largest agricultural exporter, with total ag exports valued at $176 billion.

“The agriculture section of the USMCA provides much needed certainty within North America through its tough and effective rules on sanitary and phytosanitary measures, agricultural biotechnology, intellectual property, and technical barriers to trade,” the letter said. “U.S. agricultural exporters depend on the binding nature of these provisions to access our closest markets and make sales, which has directly benefited the farmers, ranchers, and producers that we represent. Further, these rules-based, science-driven commitments set a strong example for other trading partners hoping to achieve similar access to the U.S. market.”

Earlier this month, the National Pork Producers Council and more than 125 agriculture and food organizations also urged USTR to be cautious in making changes to USMCA, which they said has facilitated and streamlined the flow of commerce throughout the three countries. The positive impact USMCA has had on U.S. agriculture, they added, “has yet to reach its maximum benefit. At a time when economic challenges threaten the livelihood of family farms, producers need the certainty provided under USMCA more than ever.”

“U.S. pork producers export over 25% of their pork,” NPPC noted in Capital Update. “With Mexico and Canada as their first and fourth largest export markets, respectively, USMCA has provided continuity and removed market uncertainty in those markets.”

Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation pointed out that USMCA has delivered real value for America’s dairy farmers.

“While several dairy compliance issues remain to be addressed in the 2026 Joint Review, the duty-free trade into Mexico that USMCA preserved has allowed U.S. dairy exporters to partner with Mexico to meet growing demand,” Doud said.

Read More:
No Trade Agreement Can Boast the Success of USMCA, The Meat Institute Says

Pork Exports Remain Strong in August; Beef Decline Continues

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 18:21:39 GMT

USDA has released August red meat export data, which was delayed due to the lengthy government shutdown. As compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), August data showed a relatively strong performance for U.S. pork exports. But beef exports were sharply lower than a year ago, impacted heavily by an impasse with China that has effectively locked U.S. beef out of the world’s largest import market.

August pork exports totaled 236,311 metric tons (mt), down 1% from a year ago, valued at $685.9 million (down 2%). August exports were bolstered by another remarkable performance by leading market Mexico, where shipments climbed 8% from a year ago to 102,790 mt, the fifth largest volume on record. Export value reached $252.3 million, up 9% and the second highest on record, trailing only December 2024.

For January through August, pork exports were 3% below last year’s record pace in both volume (1.93 million mt) and value ($5.48 billion). This gap is mostly attributable to lower exports to China, where U.S. pork faces retaliatory tariffs. This situation was especially disruptive in the spring months, when tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China temporarily escalated and there was growing uncertainty about the continued eligibility of U.S. plants. While this situation has since stabilized, China’s total tariff on U.S. pork and most pork variety meat had been 57% until Nov. 10, when it was reduced to 47%.

August beef exports totaled 83,388 mt, down 19% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020. Export value fell 18% to $695.5 million, the lowest since February 2021. While exports to China plummeted, shipments were fairly steady to leading market South Korea and trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean and Central and South America.

For January through August, beef exports were 9.5% below last year at 775,188 mt, while value declined 9% to $6.37 billion.

Mexico and Central America continue to shine for U.S. pork

Pork exports to Mexico continue to reach new heights in 2025, with January-August shipments climbing 3% above last year’s record pace in volume (781,605 mt) and 6% higher in value ($1.78 billion). The leading destination for U.S. pork is increasingly competitive, with Brazil’s pork shipments to Mexico (through October) increasing 64% from a year ago to nearly 64,000 mt. However, Brazil still captured less than 5% market share, while U.S. market share is about 80%.

August pork exports to Central America also trended higher, keeping shipments to the region on a record pace. Through August, pork exports to Central America totaled 118,257 mt, up 22% from last year’s record. Value soared 25% to $377.5 million, led by robust growth in Honduras, Guatemala and Costa Rica.

Pork exports to Colombia took a step back in August, falling 29% from last year’s very robust totals in both volume (9,418 mt) and value ($28 million). But January-August shipments to Colombia were still on a record pace, increasing 9% to 85,707 mt, valued at $245.4 million (up 11%).

Among other markets, August pork exports trended higher than a year ago to Korea, the Caribbean, Australia and the Philippines. Shipments were below last year to China, Japan, Canada, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Pork export value equated to $67.74 per head slaughtered in August, up 5% from a year ago, while the January-August average was $65.55 per head, down 1%. Exports accounted for 31% of total August pork production, up two full percentage points from a year ago. For muscle cuts only, the ratio exported was about one percentage point higher at 26.3%. For January through August, exports accounted for just under 30% of total production, down slightly from a year ago. The ratio of muscle cuts exported was steady at 26.1%.

Some bright spots for beef, but impasse with China weighs heavily on exports

With U.S. beef facing a multi-layered lockout in China, export results have worsened throughout 2025 as supplies of eligible product were depleted and more plants were suspended in June and August. Exports sank to just 862 mt in August, down 94% from a year ago. For January through August, exports to China were 52% below last year in volume (56,494 mt) and 53% lower in value ($484.2 million). The accumulated decline in exports for January through October is estimated at $832 million, as September and October exports are also certain to be minimal. As USMEF has previously reported, China has failed to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities. But renewing these registrations is just one of the steps necessary to restore access for U.S. beef in China, where 16 U.S. plants have been suspended since June and 30 facilities have been suspended since 2022. For China to return to its commitments under the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, it must address all of the barriers obstructing access for U.S. beef.

August beef exports to leading market Korea were slightly below last year in volume, falling 1.5% to 16,823 mt. But export value still increased 3% to $168 million. For January through August, exports to Korea increased 8% from a year ago in volume (162,907 mt) and 9% in value ($1.55 billion).

Beef exports to Central America posted another strong performance in August, climbing 5% from a year ago to 1,512 mt, while value soared 50% to $17 million. Led by robust growth in Guatemala and Costa Rica, January-August beef exports to the region are on a record pace, reaching 14,520 mt, up 6% from a year ago, while value climbed 34% to $134.2 million.

Among other markets, August beef exports trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean region, led by growth in the Dominican Republic, Bahamas and Jamaica, and to South America, led by growth in Chile (where exports have been above year-ago levels in each of the past six months) and a rebound in Colombia. Exports were also higher to Hong Kong, the Philippines, Vietnam, Europe and Morocco, but trended lower to Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan and the Middle East.

Beef export value equated to $372.10 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 5% from a year ago. The January-August average was $400.16 per head, down 3.5% from the same period last year. Exports accounted for 12.1% of total August beef production and 9.8% for muscle cuts only – each down about one percentage point from a year ago. The January-August ratios were 13.1% of total production and 11% for muscle cuts, down from 13.9% and 11.6%, respectively, during the same period last year.

Full January-August export results for U.S. pork, beef and lamb are available from USMEF’s statistics web page .

Optimism Reigns Despite Volatility in U.S. Red Meat Industry

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 13:23:40 GMT

Demand for U.S. red meat remains robust in key destinations where customers crave the quality and consistency of U.S. pork, beef and lamb, despite significant obstacles in the international marketplace, explained U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO Dan Halstrom at the USMEF Strategic Planning Conference in Indianapolis.

Pork exports are modestly below last year’s record pace, but he says the gap stems mostly from a period early in 2025 when China’s retaliatory tariffs increased and the U.S. industry faced uncertainty about plant eligibility.

“Although export data is only available through July due to the government shutdown, pork shipments are on record pace to leading market Mexico, as well as to Central America and Colombia,” USMEF reports.

Halstrom says beef exports have been hit harder by barriers in China, where U.S. beef not only faces retaliatory tariffs, but also unwarranted plant delistings and China’s failure to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities. Fully reopening the world’s largest beef import market to U.S. beef will require several actions on China’s part, and the lockout could extend into 2026.

“This is obviously a political card that’s being held by the China side,” Halstrom says. “One thing I’m very confident in is that [the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative] is well aware of our position, well aware of what’s involved, and very well-informed. I do think they’ll get it worked out eventually, I just can’t tell you when – no one can.”

Free Trade Agreements are Key
Protecting and defending existing free trade agreements is an urgent priority, Halstrom says. He is optimistic that ongoing negotiations with several trading partners may lead to new opportunities for U.S. red meat, especially in Southeast Asia.

Over the past decade, red meat exports to free trade agreement partner countries have expanded by more than 30%, and exports to these destinations now account for 76% of total shipments, he says.

Invoking the Paul Harvey quote, “In times like these, it helps to recall that there have always been times like these,” Halstrom reminds USMEF members that the industry has endured tremendous trade setbacks in the past, including widespread market closures due to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and plunging consumer confidence and buying power in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

“Remember that we overcame all those obstacles,” Halstrom says. “I believe that with the knowledge in this room, and with continued cooperation and collaboration, we can overcome anything.”

A Complicated Relationship
Keynote speaker Jan Lambregts, head of RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets, discussed the complexities of the U.S.-China trade relationship.

“I’m not quite sure if you will like this news, but I don’t think there will be a comprehensive deal coming soon between China and the U.S.,” Lambregts shares. “What the U.S. is demanding is access to Chinese markets. What China will never give is access to the Chinese market because that’s not how they’ve been winning in trade during the past 30 to 40 years.”

Both countries are playing for time, he says. China has been cut off from high-end semiconductors and needs time to develop its own semiconductor sector. Similarly, the U.S. needs time to build its rare earths capacity, including development of extraction and processing capabilities.

“In the meantime, the U.S. is basically sending all its allies the same message: What was previously free defense now must be paid for, because we (the U.S.) need to be compensated. And by the way, if you want to trade with China, there are conditions now,” Lambregts says.

Cantinas Campaign Adds a Little Spice to Mexico Meat Promotions

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 15:32:18 GMT

Variety meats are popular in cantinas, or casual dining restaurants, in the central part of Mexico. That’s why the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is finding creative ways to promote pork and beef variety meat items to bars and casual restaurants in Mexico as an affordable appetizer and snack option that will appeal to their customers.

“Variety meat exports provide critical returns for U.S. pork and beef producers, and Mexico is a leading destination for these products,” USMEF says.

USMEF’s marketing campaign, known as Cantina Vibes, has expanded to the northern part of the country because of the success in central Mexico. In northern Mexico, consumers are less familiar with variety meat dishes, but are attracted to the lower cost, high quality, U.S. pork and beef.

“When we talk about variety meats in pork, we talk about jowl, ears, brains, snout, stomach, etc. In beef, we are promoting small intestine, also liver and sweetbread,” says Rigoberto Treviño, trade manager for USMEF Mexico. “For example, with the pork snout, we are doing tacos, sopes, tostadas. So, it’s different cantina dishes with variety meat.”

Sweebread Taco

(USMEF)

Mexico is the leading volume destination for U.S. beef variety meat exports, totaling 124,000 metric tons last year. It is second only to China for pork variety meat exports, with shipments in 2024 topping 160,000 metric tons.

Treviño says U.S. pork and beef offer “really good quality” and amazing consistency. Plus, it is very affordable for the cantinas.

“Not all variety meats are affordable,” he points out. “I know that sweetbreads are a little bit more expensive. But the small intestine or pork stomach and pork snout are very affordable. You can have a pork jowl taco or a pork jowl sope with guacamole for about, a dollar. It’s very affordable, and it’s very important for those kinds of restaurants and casual dining.”

No Trade Agreement Can Boast the Success of USMCA, The Meat Institute Says

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 21:13:19 GMT

The Meat Institute is calling on the Trump administration to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for its benefits to American meat and poultry companies and the entire U.S. animal protein value chain.

“USMCA has been a boon for the American meat, livestock and poultry sector, along with the broader American food and agriculture economy and ancillary industries,” said Julie Anna Potts, The Meat Institute president and CEO, in a news release. “It has provided steady income to American farmers, ranchers, and meat and poultry exporters; it has created jobs for American truck drivers, ports, and transportation companies; it has strengthened American food retail and food service establishments; and it has accomplished all of this through transparent rules that allow American businesses to proactively plan supply chains and develop durable customer relationships.”

USMCA entered into force on July 1, 2020, substituting the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to create more balanced, reciprocal trade supporting high-paying jobs for Americans and grow the North American economy, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) .

“The domestic U.S. meat and poultry industry’s long-term economic viability, though, depends on robust international trade, particularly as domestic per capita consumption of meat and poultry remains stable, and 95% of consumers live outside the U.S,” The Meat Institute wrote in comments submitted to the USTR on Nov. 3. “International trade is, therefore, vital to the long-term strength of the U.S. meat and poultry industry, the American workers it supports, and the rural and farm communities it sustains.”

In 2024, U.S. meat and poultry exports exceeded $24.6 billion. Meat and poultry product exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for $7.5 billion of that total. Annually, approximately 14% of U.S. beef production, 15% of U.S. poultry production and 25% of U.S. pork production are exported, the organization noted. As well, exports add value to every animal produced, and in turn, increase demand for U.S. corn and soybeans.

“The Trump Administration’s America First Trade Policy Agenda has reinvigorated American trade policy and has reasserted American leadership to advance U.S. meat, poultry, food, and agriculture trade in a manner that revitalizes our farm communities and supports broad-based economic growth. President Trump’s negotiation of the USMCA during his first term resulted in the world’s gold-standard trade agreement,” the letter said. “Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, USMCA has bolstered U.S. meat, poultry, and livestock trade, has led to increased market integration in North America, and must be preserved without significant changes that would disrupt the U.S. meat and poultry industry’s substantial access to the Canadian and Mexican markets.”

The Meat Institute says it’s clear USMCA’s access terms – zero tariffs on most meat, poultry and livestock trade – have underpinned American economic and job growth, particularly in rural and farm communities across the U.S.

“No other trade agreement can boast the same success,” Potts said. “President Trump deserves enormous credit for this extraordinary achievement.”

See The Meat Institute’s full comments in response to the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) “Request for Comments on the Operation of the Agreement Between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada.”

Unpacking the Beef: Report Clarifies Cattle Market Realities, Packer Challenges & Trade Tensions

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 20:17:58 GMT

Since President Donald Trump’s comments last week, a lot has been discussed on social media and at the coffee shop about increasing beef imports from Argentina, beef retail prices, the cattle market and beef processing concentration.

“It is complicated,” the Meat Institute posted on LinkedIn regarding the current state of the beef industry and the dialog about beef prices. In response, the Meat Institute released a nine-page document — The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets — addressing import trends, market conditions, industry concentration, ground beef production, policy proposals and international trade challenges.

Key discussion points include:

1. Argentine Beef Imports

The report summarizes increasing beef imports from Argentina is unlikely to significantly lower ground beef prices in the U.S. If Argentina fills the proposed 80,000 metric ton quota, it will only increase its share of U.S. beef imports from 2% to 5%, which is unlikely to significantly impact retail or restaurant beef prices.

Argentina primarily exports grass-fed frozen lean trim for ground beef production, with limited impact on overall U.S. beef imports. In 2024, Argentina was the eighth-largest beef supplier to the U.S., exporting 32,798 metric tons, while the U.S. imported 1.56 million metric tons overall.

2. Beef and Cattle Market Conditions

The report summarizes current market conditions with these six statements:

Cattle producers are enjoying record prices, while beef packers are suffering under negative margins.
The shortage of market-ready cattle continues, adding further pressure to packers’ margins, which first dropped to negative values in September 2024.
Packing plant utilization rates have dipped, and some facilities are scaling back operations, including reduced shifts and shortened workweeks. Uncertain immigration policy moving forward can have an impact here as well.
Trade policy uncertainty from proposed tariffs adds to the cost pressures on the cattle market.
Additionally, foreign animal disease import restrictions — particularly on Mexican feeder cattle — are another contributing factor to increasing costs.
Consumer demand has remained resilient with improved beef quality. However, prospects for elevated cattle prices and the beef those cattle yield remain directly tied to the extent end-user consumer demand can remain robust.

“Cattle prices were at record levels for most of 2023, surpassing the 2014-2015 previous record highs as the cattle herd rebuilt from the previous low points of the cattle cycle,” the report says. “Through 2024, prices continued at new record levels and increased further into 2025, exceeding an average of $242 cwt. in August, the highest nominal price on record.

“Cash prices have declined to $232 cwt. in the first two weeks of October, but futures contracts are at record levels, even after adjusted for inflation. The previous highs in October 2015 would be $222 cwt. in today’s dollars, a full $10 cwt. below the current prices as of Oct. 14.”

The report goes on to say: “This has put U.S. beef packers under financial pressure. Packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a packer margin of negative $165.96 per head.”

(Meat Institute)

For 2025, cow-calf producer margins are estimated to be up 122.3% from 2024 and 180.67% from 2023 to $900 per head. Feedlot margins are estimated to be up 351% from 2024 to $514.33 per head. But packer margins have declined 120% from already negative margins in 2024 and are estimated to be down 269% from 2023.

“With fewer market-ready cattle available, plant utilization rates have dipped and some facilities are scaling back operations, including reduced shifts and shortened workweeks. Packing plants were operating at 77% capacity for the week of Oct. 4, down from 85% a year ago. Uncertain immigration policy moving forward can have an impact here as well,” the report summarizes.

(Meat Institute)

The share of the retail beef dollar also indicates producers have been faring well. The producers’ share of the retail beef dollar was 55% in August 2025 and has averaged 54% so far in 2025. The packers’ share has dropped from 13% to 5%, reflecting the negative packer margins.

Download the Meat Institute’s full Cattle and Beef Market Update .

3. Concentration in the Beef Packing Sector

“The U.S. meat packing sector is a dynamic, resilient and highly competitive industry with a long history of providing an abundant supply of high quality, safe and affordable products to American consumers and serving as a vital economic engine that supports America’s farmers and ranchers,” the report says.

(Meat Institute)

The top four beef packers in the U.S. account for the purchase and slaughter of about 81% of all fed cattle in the U.S., according to the most recent report from the USDA’s Packers and Stockyards Division. But those fed cattle make up only about 78% of the Federally Inspected cattle slaughtered in the U.S. The other 22% is made up of cows, both dairy and beef and some bulls.

“Much of the rhetoric about beef industry concentration implies that consolidation in the beef packing sector is ongoing and that market power is becoming increasingly concentrated. That is not the case,” the report says. “The four-firm concentration ratio in the beef cattle industry has not changed appreciably over the past 30 years. According to USDA, in 1994, for example, that ratio was 82%, compared with 81% today.”

4. Ground Beef

Ground beef accounts for approximately 50% of U.S. beef consumption. Imported lean trim complements U.S. beef production from cull cows, helping maintain affordability without directly competing with domestic beef.

“Without imported lean trim, more highly marbled quality U.S. beef would be used, and ground beef would be more expensive,” the report explains.

5. Policy Issues

Despite record cattle prices and the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, there are increasing calls for mandatory country-of-origin (COOL) labeling for beef.

“The mandatory COOL experiment was implemented and it failed,” the report says. “From 2002 through Congress repealing the law in 2015, we learned that mandatory COOL adds massive compliance costs — the industry incurred implementation costs of approximately $1.5 billion, plus $200 million in additional annual compliance costs thereafter — yet by USDA’s own analysis, it did not increase consumer demand. Mandatory COOL simply adds cost, not value.”

On Jan. 1, 2026, USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service will begin implementing its voluntary COOL rule.

“Let the rule and the free market work: if consumers demand ‘Product of the U.S.’ labels on their meat, then processors can and will provide it,” the report says.

For more info, download the Meat Institute’s mCOOL paper .

The reports also explains proposals like the PRIME Act and interstate shipment of state-inspected meat are seen as threats to food safety and international trade relationships.

“The concept in the PRIME Act is even worse,” the report explains. “Under Rep. Thomas Massie’s legislation, custom exempt meat establishments would be allowed to slaughter animals, process the meat and sell it directly to consumers or to restaurants, hotels or grocery stores within the state, without any inspection. It is a recipe for foodborne illnesses, and consumers in restaurants and hotels would have no idea they would be eating uninspected meat (and grocery store consumers would only know if they look for and can’t find the USDA inspection symbol). Food safety should be the top priority, not something legislated away.”

6. China Beef Exports

The Meat Institute urges action as China blocks more than 415 U.S. beef facilities from exporting.

“In 2024, China was the U.S.’s third largest market, by value, for beef, at over $1.5 billion,” the paper summarizes. “The strong beef exports to China were thanks to President Trump’s leadership in securing the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement during his first term. However, since the beginning of 2025 — and in contravention of the terms of the Phase One Agreement — China has failed to renew the registrations for more than 415 U.S. beef establishments, making them ineligible to export to China. This is a massive market loss for the U.S. that Brazil and other countries have been eager to fill.”

South Dakota Producer Speaks Out About Beef Imports and "Product of USA" Push

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 18:53:34 GMT

Beef market volatility continues following last week’s roller coaster .

On Wednesday, Reuters reported Mexican Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue spoke with U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in a video conference this week, and though they had made advances, there is still not a date for reopening the U.S. border to Mexican cattle. The border initially closed due to the northward movement of New World screwworm .

Cattlemen’s Perspective

Justin Tupper, United States Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) president from St. Onge, S.D., joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk Tuesday to discuss the state of the beef market, focusing on recent comments by President Donald Trump and the potential impact of beef imports from Argentina and Brazil.

Tupper shared insights into the complex challenges currently facing the cattle industry, including significant market volatility.

“Explaining to some of these producers why they might get $200 to $300 per head less than we got two weeks ago is a little hard to do,” Tupper says.

On Tuesday, compared to before President Trump made his post, November feeder cattle were down $35. and December live cattle were down $20 to $23. Choice box beef prices increased by at least $7.

Since this post:

Nov Feeder Cattle: -$35.025 (-9.4%)
Dec Live Cattle: -$22.10 (-9.1%)

Beef: Choice +$6.75, Select +$9.65

There's a winner here and its not the consumer and for sure not the cattle producers... https://t.co/NUEx2WnTiO
— Austin Schroeder (@aschroeder25mkt) October 27, 2025

Three key points from the conversation include:

1. Beef imports are a complex issue with potential long-term market implications.

Tupper discussed concerns about market fairness, safety protocols and potential precedent for future trade policies. He emphasizes the need for a level playing field and transparent labeling.

“We need to make sure that when we do it, that they’re playing on the same level playing field as far as production goes and safety protocols go,” he says. “If we want to be the safest, best protein on the planet, which I think we are, we’ve got to make sure we safeguard that.”

Flory points out most beef imports are used for ground beef, and many beef exports products are cuts Americans don’t typically consume — such as beef tongue and heart.

Tupper agrees, saying imports and exports are going to happen, but he supports a balanced approach to international trade that maintains fair competition, safety standards and truth in labeling.

“When we export it or we import it, we need to know where it’s coming from,” he says. “That’s another big thing. We don’t need them to use that loophole and be able to label it ‘Product of the USA’. The consumer wants to know, and they should be able to choose if they want a lower quality, lower price [product] from another country.”

2. Current beef prices reflect production costs.
Tupper says the beef industry needs to shift the narrative around pricing. Despite market volatility, Tupper argues current prices reflect true production costs. He stresses beef is not “too expensive” and that consumption remains strong — challenging the notion of overpriced beef. He shares the analogy of consumers are willing to spend $6 on a latte.

“I don’t think beef is too high,” Tupper says. “We’ve caught up with the cost of production. We’re finally making a living wage for some of these guys.”

Tupper stresses despite higher prices, beef consumption has remained surprisingly strong. He suggests this indicates consumers’ continued value of beef as a protein source.

“Usually, they can raise beef prices and consumption goes down, and then they can buy it cheaper,” he says. “That has not been the way they’ve been able to do it through this part of the cycle.”

Tupper and Flory also discussed how, ultimately, the consumer is who decides if beef prices are too high.

“That decision is 100% with consumers, and there are a lot of consumers that — maybe for the first time — are thinking beef prices might be too high because President Trump says they are,” Flory says. “That could be the demand hit we’re all fearful of.”

3. Transparency in labeling and production is crucial.
Tupper says there is a need for clearer labeling and consumer transparency. He advocates for a strict “Product of USA” label that truly represents beef born, raised and processed entirely in the U.S., allowing consumers to make informed choices about their meat purchases.

“Is there anything simpler out there?” Tupper asks. “If it says, ‘Product of USA’, that’s what it should be.”

For more from Tupper and Flory, check out their AgriTalk conversation here:

Your Next Read: $4 Feeder Cattle: Dream or Reality?

'The System Is Failing Us:' Why Real Change is Needed in U.S. Agriculture

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 13:57:30 GMT

Joe Maxwell doesn’t pull punches — especially on the topic of the future of American agriculture.

“The system is failing us,” says Maxwell, co-founder of Farm Action , during a recent episode of “Unscripted.” “It’s failing the people. It’s failing family farmers and ranchers. And it’s failing consumers. We can’t keep pretending everything’s fine.”

The Missouri farmer and former lieutenant governor shares an uncomfortable truth: The economic model that has shaped U.S. agriculture no longer works for those producing America’s food.

Commodity prices remain under pressure, input costs stay stubbornly high and government payments — while keeping some farms afloat — often mask deeper structural problems.

“We’re on this hamster wheel,” Maxwell says. “Government sends out a bailout, input companies raise prices and the money flows right back up to them. We think we’re being helped, but really, we’re just passing the money through.”

From Missouri Roots to National Reform

Maxwell grew up on a family farm in Missouri and lived through the 1980s farm crisis. That experience shapes his conviction that policy, not luck, determines who survives in agriculture.

That belief lead him and Ohio farmer Angela Huffman to co-found Farm Action, a nonprofit working to “connect the dots” between policy decisions, corporate consolidation and on-farm economics.

“We see a need for a farm organization that looks up and down the entire food chain,” Maxwell explains. “Everyone’s focused on one part of the system — fertilizer here, seed prices there, meatpacking somewhere else — but no one connects them. Farm Action connects those dots and pushes for policy that works for independent producers again.”

“We Don’t Feed the World Anymore”

Maxwell challenges one of agriculture’s most familiar slogans.

“Let’s be honest — we don’t feed the world anymore,” he says. “We import 60% of our fruit, over a third of our vegetables and record amounts of beef. We have a $47 billion agricultural trade deficit. The world is starting to feed us.”

He argues that U.S. farm policy has become overly dependent on exports of feed and fuel crops, while overlooking food crops and livestock production that directly feed Americans. Maxwell calls for farm programs that reward food production rather than commodity production.

“Every year we lose up to 1.8 million acres of pasture to row crops,” he notes. “That’s a failure of policy. We make it easier and more profitable to grow corn for fuel than to raise beef or vegetables for food. That’s not national security — that’s national vulnerability.”

“Let’s quit lying to ourselves. We don’t feed the world anymore — the world is beginning to feed us.”— Joe Maxwell, Farm Action

The Growing Grip of Consolidation

Maxwell points to consolidation as the most dangerous — and least understood — threat facing independent producers. From fertilizer and seed to meatpacking and grocery shelves, he says control has concentrated into the hands of just a few corporations.

“The power dynamic in agriculture has flipped,” Maxwell explains. “Farmers used to have leverage. Now, a handful of companies control nearly every input we need to farm — and they set the prices we pay. Then they control the markets we sell into, and they set those prices, too. That’s not a free market — that’s corporate feudalism.”

He points to Farm Action’s Concentration Tracker, a public data hub that compiles market share information across the food system. It shows that:

Four companies control over 80% of beef processing.
Two companies dominate more than 75% of corn seed genetics.
Three firms hold the majority of fertilizer production capacity.
The top five grocery chains now capture nearly 65% of all food retail sales.

“When just a few players hold that kind of power, they don’t compete — they coordinate,” Maxwell says. “They can raise input costs and suppress farmgate prices, and farmers have no real alternative. That’s why our concentration tracker matters — it exposes what’s really happening behind the curtain.”

The problem, he says, isn’t just economic — it’s political.

“These corporations have so much money and influence they shape farm policy to fit their own balance sheets,” Maxwell adds. “When we go to Washington asking for help, they’re already there, writing the rules. Until we restore fair competition and transparency, every bailout, every policy tweak is just feeding the beast.”

Farm Action’s data shows concentration doesn’t just hurt farmers — it hurts consumers, too. From fertilizer to feed to food, fewer companies mean higher costs for everyone.

“You see it every time you go to the grocery store,” Maxwell says. “Beef prices are high, but cattlemen aren’t seeing that profit. Fertilizer prices spike, but farmers don’t control the market. Consumers pay more, farmers earn less, and the middle consolidates the wealth. That’s not sustainable for anybody.”

It’s a concept gaining national traction. Just this week, the Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on the soaring costs of inputs.

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) also introduced legislation to address the rising costs of inputs, called the Fertilizer Research Act . But the hearing brought together the larger issue of rising costs across the board for farmers.

“This hearing is focused on competition issues. However, there is something that the Trump administration can do right now to help ease the burden for farmers: lowering the countervailing duties on phosphate from Morocco. In 2024, the Biden administration increased duties on Moroccan phosphate to 18%,” said Grassley in his opening statement. “The Biden phosphate duties have only hurt farmers by boxing out access to this important market on an essential input with no substitute. I’m calling on the Trump administration to help American farmers and get rid of the Biden phosphate duties.”

The Beef Debate: “We’re Blindsided”

For ranchers, the issue of consolidation has long been a point of contention. But recent comments by President Trump sparked a renewed push for change and a probe into who and what really controls the prices consumers are paying.

When the White House signaled it will allow more beef imports from Argentina , Maxwell says many ranchers feel blindsided.

“Our cattle herd is at a 70-year low,” he says. “Ranchers finally see light at the end of the tunnel — and then Washington steps in to import more beef. That’s not just a policy mistake, it’s a psychological one.”

He argues that the frustration isn’t only about imports; it’s about the perception that the administration doesn’t understand the complexity of the cattle market.

“Cattle producers don’t set the price they’re paid — packers do,” Maxwell explains. “So when the president talks about lowering prices for consumers without addressing packer control, he’s aiming at the wrong target.”

“We’re finally seeing the light of day. Then government puts its hand back on our backs.”— Joe Maxwell on the U.S. cattle market

“It’s Time for DOJ to Step In”: Why the Beef Industry Needs an Investigation

He says instead of the Trump administration focusing on cattle prices, Farm Action thinks what happened in the egg industry during past price spikes is exactly what needs to happen now in beef: a full federal investigation.

“Two companies control 90% of hatcheries in the U.S. egg industry,” Maxwell explains. “When egg prices exploded, Farm Action presented evidence to the Department of Justice showing that those companies were profiting at historic levels while blaming avian flu. And you know what happened? DOJ opened an investigation. That’s what accountability looks like.”

Now, he says, the same pattern is playing out in beef.

“We’ve already seen price-fixing cases in the cattle sector,” he says. “Two of the major packers admitted it back in 2019. We shouldn’t have to spend years in court to prove what every rancher already knows — that a handful of companies are manipulating the market.”

The so-called “Big Four” — Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef (controlled by Brazil-based Marfrig) — control roughly 85% of U.S. beef processing capacity. That concentration, Maxwell argues, allows them to influence both the price paid to producers and the price charged to consumers.

“It’s an abusive system,” Maxwell says. “They squeeze ranchers on one end and shoppers on the other, and everyone in between gets caught in the middle. The packers are the only ones guaranteed to make money, no matter what happens to the market.”

He calls for the Department of Justice to launch a new, comprehensive investigation into price manipulation and anti-competitive behavior within the beef industry — similar to what Farm Action pushed for with eggs.

“We need DOJ to do in beef what it finally did in eggs,” he says. “Follow the money, follow the profits, and hold these corporations accountable. Because right now, the people who produce our beef — the ranchers who’ve weathered drought, inflation, and decades of consolidation — are getting crushed while multinational packers report record margins.”

Maxwell says the Biden administration has taken small steps, but much more needs to be done.

“It’s not enough to tinker at the edges,” he warns. “We need enforcement — real enforcement — of the Packers and Stockyards Act, the Sherman Act, the Clayton Act. The laws are already on the books. What’s missing is the will to use them.”

Country-of-Origin Labeling: A “No-Brainer”

Maxwell says Farm Action is pushing hard for mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (M-COOL) as part of the upcoming USMCA review in 2026.

“Consumers deserve to know where their beef comes from,” he insists. “The president could fix this tomorrow by negotiating M-COOL into the trade deal. That one move would give American ranchers a fair shot.”

He dismisses claims that M-COOL violates WTO rules.

“WTO is dead in the water,” Maxwell argues. “There’s no functioning tribunal to even hear a case. The only people fighting this are the packers — JBS, Tyson, Cargill, Marfrig — because they profit when foreign beef gets a U.S. label.”

Structural Change, Not Another Bailout
When asked whether Farm Action supports another round of USDA bailouts for struggling producers, Maxwell doesn’t hesitate.

“We recognize farmers are in crisis,” he says. “We don’t want to see our neighbors driven off the farm. But we can’t just keep sending out checks without fixing the system. One day those bailouts won’t come, and then it’ll look just like the 1980s. We have to demand structural change.”

Those changes, he says, should include:

Capping farm subsidies to slow consolidation.
Rebalancing insurance and incentive programs toward food production.
Rebuilding local and regional processing capacity to compete with the “Big Four” packers who control 80–85% of the cattle market.
Stronger enforcement of antitrust laws like the Packers and Stockyards Act and the Sherman Act.

Rebuilding from the Ground Up

Despite his criticism, Maxwell frames his message as one of hope — if farmers and ranchers take the lead.

“We can’t sit back and wait for Washington to fix this,” he says. “We have to step up, be part of the conversation, and demand policies that keep family farms in business.”

He supports Rep. Thomas Massie’s Prime Act, which would expand small-scale meat processing and let states regulate local slaughterhouses directly.

“We’ve got the infrastructure,” Maxwell adds. “We just need to give it life again. Let’s rebuild local processing so farmers can sell directly to consumers and keep value in their communities.”

Why It Matters Now

Fresh data from the Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows that 76% of agricultural economists expect conditions to persist or worsen over the next year. Many see echoes of the 1980s — though they warn today’s crisis is more complex.

“It’s not the 1980s all over again,” says Unscripted host Tyne Morgan. “But the pain is real. Economists say the situation could worsen in 2026 if structural issues aren’t addressed. That’s what makes conversations like this so important.”

A Call to Action

As the conversation wraps up, Maxwell’s tone shifts from urgency to determination. His message to rural America is both a warning and an invitation.

“We have to lead,” he says, pausing before adding, “because no one else is going to do it for us.”

He says the future of U.S. agriculture depends on whether farmers choose to engage in these hard conversations — the ones about fairness, policy, and the future of independent family farms.

“Look, we can’t afford to sit on the sidelines and hope someone in Washington suddenly understands our way of life,” Maxwell says. “Every farmer, every rancher, every person who believes in feeding people instead of feeding systems has a role to play. It starts at the local level — showing up, speaking up, refusing to accept that the current model is the only way forward.”He continues:

“This isn’t about right or left, or about politics at all. It’s about survival — for the people who feed this country. We can’t keep patching the same broken system and expecting it to serve us. If we want a food system that’s fair, resilient, and rooted in our rural communities, we’ve got to build it ourselves, together. That’s the hard truth — and the hopeful one.”

Maxwell’s words linger long after the conversation ends — a challenge, but also a call for courage. Change, he insists, isn’t something that happens to farmers. It’s something that must happen through them.

Listen to the Full Conversation

Listen to the full interview: “Unscripted” with Tyne Morgan and Clinton Griffiths featuring Joe Maxwell, a vailable on Farm Journal’s YouTube channel and anywhere you stream podcasts.

Historic Trade Deals with Southeast Asia Open New Markets for U.S. Pork, Beef

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:27:22 GMT

President Donald Trump has secured historic trade deals to lower tariffs on U.S. exports and eliminate trade barriers, strengthening America’s economic and national security interests, said ambassador Jamieson Greer on Oct. 26.

Trump secured agreements on reciprocal trade with Malaysia and Cambodia and reached frameworks for agreements on reciprocal trade with Thailand and Vietnam.

Ambassador Greer believes these landmark deals demonstrate how America can maintain tariffs to shrink the goods trade deficit while opening new markets for American farmers, ranchers, workers and manufacturers.

ASEAN Region is Critical
U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO Dan Halstrom appreciates USTR’s tireless efforts to address both tariff and non-tariff barriers that have kept the U.S. as a minor supplier of red meat to the ASEAN region.

“With the U.S. beef industry currently lacking access to China, improved access to Southeast Asia is desperately needed to provide competing bids for beef cuts that are popular in Asia, but not demanded by American consumers,” Halstrom says. “Exports of short plate, chuck short rib, rib fingers, omasum and other such items are critical to maximizing the value of every animal and stimulating the U.S. herd rebuild.”

Exports have been an important driver of U.S. pork industry growth, enabling American consumers access to the bacon and ribs they love, while maximizing whole animal value through exports of feet, stomachs, picnics, brisket bones and bone-in hams, Halstrom says.

“The ASEAN region is more critical than ever as an alternative market to China, especially for pork variety meats,” he says.

U.S. beef and pork hold only minor import shares in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia due to the combination of tariff and non-tariff barriers. USMEF believes growth potential is significant when these barriers are addressed through President Trump’s agreements.

“USMEF looks forward to swift implementation of the agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, and hopes for further progress and implementation of agreements with Thailand and Vietnam, as well as follow through on the joint statement with Indonesia announced in July,” Halstrom says.

Malaysia is Key for U.S. Pork
U.S. pork exports to Malaysia hit record levels of over $24.5 million in 2024, a significant amount considering only eight U.S. plants are currently eligible for export, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) noted in a release. Exports to Malaysia have increased over 1,700% in the last five years.

“The deal with Malaysia will open access to all U.S. facilities included in the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) Meat, Poultry and Egg Product Inspection Directory; will not impose additional product or facility registration requirements; and will ensure acceptance of the standard FSIS export certificate,” NPPC wrote. “In a separate deal, Cambodia agreed to the same terms.”

Malaysia also agreed to recognize the U.S. protection zone for African swine fever within 15 months of signing the deal and complete a regionalization deal.

“America’s pork producers are grateful to President Trump for increasing market access for U.S. pork to Malaysia, a country that has been importing pork despite limited plants being eligible for export,” said NPPC president Duane Stateler, a pork producer from McComb, Ohio. “More than 25% of U.S. pork production is exported, so producers count on exports to help keep their farms afloat, especially in times of uncertainty.”

In fact, exports account for more than $66 in value from each hog marketed, NPPC explained. Meanwhile, pork production supports rural communities, and exports support over 140,000 American jobs.

“American pork producers need certainty and stability – now as much as ever – and NPPC will continue to engage with the administration and international partners to maintain and open new market access for U.S. pork,” NPPC said.

Is Argentina Beef the Answer to Lowering Beef Prices?

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 19:06:36 GMT

President Donald Trump said Sunday that the U.S. could purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down prices for American consumers.

“We would buy some beef from Argentina,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down.”

He emphasized its potential impact on reducing domestic beef prices while supporting Argentina’s struggling economy

President Trump, speaking onboard Air Force One, defended a proposed beef import deal with Argentina, emphasizing its potential impact on reducing domestic beef prices while supporting Argentina's struggling economy pic.twitter.com/iz0mnYcGG4
— Reuters (@Reuters) October 20, 2025

Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory on AgriTalk Monday, “The president ought to keep his mouth shut about beef prices. Because it has a negative consequence for the cattle market.”

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) responded to Trump’s comments with concern that rewarding Argentina with this expanded access to the U.S. market harms American cattle producers while also interfering with the free market.

“NCBA’s family farmers and ranchers have numerous concerns with importing more Argentinian beef to lower prices for consumers. This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” says Colin Woodall, NCBA CEO. “Additionally, Argentina has a deeply unbalanced trade relationship with the U.S. In the past five years Argentina has sold more than $801 million of beef into the U.S. market. By comparison, the U.S. has sold just over $7 million worth of American beef to Argentina. Argentina also has a history of foot-and-mouth disease, which if brought to the United States, could decimate our domestic livestock production.”

“Although beef prices have increased, consumer demand for beef remains strong because of the work American cattle producers have done to improve the quality and safety of U.S. beef,” says a press release from NCBA. “We call on President Trump and members of Congress to let the market work, rather than intervening in ways that do nothing but harm rural America.”

Peel’s Perspective

Oklahoma State University’s Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, shares his perspective on importing Argentina beef.

“Argentina is the sixth largest beef producing country and the fifth largest beef exporting country, accounting for roughly 6% of global beef exports,” Peel explains. “Argentine beef production is about 27% of total U.S. production. In recent years, Argentine beef exports have been growing with the majority of beef exports going to China along with Israel, the E.U. and the U.S.”

Argentina is the ninth largest source of beef imports in the U.S., accounting for about 2.1% of total U.S. beef imports thus far in 2025. U.S. imports of Argentine beef have been growing in recent years (recovery in Argentina) and were up 41.7% year over year through July (the latest data available since the shutdown).

Peel says it’s not clear how much capacity to increase beef exports exists currently in Argentina. Domestic beef consumption in Argentina uses 70% to 75% of total beef production in the country.

“If, for example, the U.S. doubled imports over 2024 levels, it would likely mostly be at the expense of domestic consumption in Argentina or other export markets for Argentine beef,” Peel explains. “Such an increase in imports from Argentina would have a negligible impact on the total supply of beef in the U.S. market. In fact, if the U.S. took all of the projected 2025 Argentine beef exports (not likely), it would represent less than 2.5% of the total U.S. beef supply.”

The majority of Argentine beef imports are lean processing beef used for ground beef production. This beef is quite similar to beef imported from Brazil. Imports from Argentina are less than 10% of the imports from Brazil.

“Increasing imports from Argentina would have a very slight impact in offsetting the reduction in imports from Brazil expected because of the sharp increase in tariffs on Brazil,” Peel says.

The impacts on beef imports from Brazil are not evident in the import data for January through July.

“Record high cattle and beef prices are occurring despite record beef imports,” Peel summarizes.

Increased beef imports (mostly lean processing beef) partially offsets decreased nonfed beef production in the U.S., helping to moderate sharply higher ground beef prices and increasing use of fatty trimmings from U.S. fed cattle.

“Argentina is a relatively minor source of beef imports and potential increases would not significantly change the overall supply of beef in the U.S.,” Peel says. “In short, it does not appear that increasing beef imports from Argentina would have any significant impacts on U.S. beef prices. At most, it might have a very slight (and probably undetectable) impact of moderating expected future increases in U.S. ground beef prices.”

NFU Responds to Trump’s Comments

Following President Trump’s comments National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew reaffirmed the need to strengthen fairness and competition within the U.S. beef industry rather than rely on imported products in a press release .

“Lowering beef prices for consumers starts with restoring fairness in the marketplace, not by importing beef from Argentina and undercutting American ranchers,” Larew says. “Years of drought, depressed cattle prices and unchecked corporate consolidation have already pushed many family farmers and ranchers to the brink, all while consumers pay more at the grocery store.

“The White House recently bailed out Argentina with $40 billion in U.S. taxpayer-backed aid, and Argentina’s response was to strike new deals selling soybeans to China — deals that hurt American crop farmers. The last thing we need is to reward them by importing more of their beef.”

USCA Comments on Remarks

U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) President Justin Tupper also issued a statement .

“USCA commented on Friday regarding potential steps by the Administration to address beef prices, and we will reiterate our position today: government intervention is not needed in an industry that is already correcting in response to years of market pressure.

“Today’s comments alone triggered an immediate reaction in the markets — cattle futures dropped significantly. It’s important to underscore: the current price of beef on grocery store shelves reflects the true, inflation-adjusted cost of raising cattle in America today.

“USCA supports affordable food prices for American families. But we do oppose policies or loopholes that manipulate the market to address a solution that will be solved through natural market behavior. This approach weakens our industry’s foundation and undermines rural America.

“We have appreciated President Trump’s ‘America First’ priorities, which have consistently highlighted the importance of supporting U.S. producers and reinforcing national food security. This moment presents an excellent opportunity to show genuine American-first leadership by prioritizing strong domestic production, and fair, transparent markets for both ranchers and consumers.”

Thoughts from Texas

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller also responded to the possibility of importing beef from Argentina. “Instead of offshoring our beef production by buying Argentinian beef, which would increase our already substantial $50 billion agricultural trade deficit, we should consider importing breeding stock to increase our own U.S. beef production capacity. Other opportunities to consider include opening federal lands to grazing and offering tax incentives to increase U.S. beef production. That would encourage more breeding stock and increased herds,” he says. “All of these options would benefit both U.S. families and the American rancher, and I hope the White House will carefully consider them.”

Your Next Read: How Many Minutes Does a Consumer Have to Work to Buy A Pound of Ground Beef?

Brazil Sets Monthly Records for Pork and Beef Exports in September

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 11:43:48 GMT

Brazil posted record monthly shipments of pork and beef in September, driven by strong global demand and market diversification, according to industry and government data released this week.

Brazil, the world’s top beef exporter and among the largest pork exporters, is increasing business with China and Mexico after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on shipments of several Brazilian goods, including beef, in August.

The U.S. used to be the second biggest market for Brazilian beef, but is not a significant destination for pork.

Pork exports totaled 151,600 tonnes, up 25.9% from a year earlier, with revenue reaching a record $368.4 million, a 29.9% increase, data from pork and chicken lobby ABPA showed.

ABPA expects the trend to continue, projecting pork exports will reach up to 1.45 million tonnes in 2025, up from 1.35 million tonnes in 2024.

Brazil also exported a record 314,700 tonnes of fresh beef in September, up 25.1% year-on-year, according to government trade data.

Exports surged despite steep tariffs imposed by the United States in August, as increased shipments to China, Brazil’s top beef importer, and to Mexico, helped offset lower U.S. demand, according to beef industry group Abiec.

Chicken exports showed signs of recovery after bird flu disruptions earlier this year, with September volumes reaching 482,300 tonnes, the highest monthly figure in 11 months, trade data showed.

Industry leaders expect continued momentum for Brazilian meat exports through year-end, supported by resilient demand and expanding access to strategic markets.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora and editing by Ana Mano; Writing by Isabel Teles; Editing by Richard Chang)

A Mixed Bag for Red Meat Exports: Strong July for Pork, Challenges for Beef

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 15:41:33 GMT

It’s been a solid month again for pork, says U.S. Meat Export Federation President (USMEF) and CEO Dan Halstrom. Although numbers were down slightly from last year at 238,922 metric tons, July exports accounted for a larger share of production, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the USMEF.

“It’s really the same theme that we’ve heard for a while,” Halstrom says. “Broad-based results from a lot of different countries are contributing to it. The leader continues to be Mexico.”

He points out that Central America in particular was at 14,500 tons, 35% above a year ago.

“Central America continues to be amazing on pork,” he says. “You’ve got regions like the Caribbean, they continue to perform, up again this month.”

Another highlight for pork is recent news about increased quotas into the European Union.

“We’ve been saying all along that in these negotiations, pork is sort of the quiet potential winner here in terms of incremental access,” Halstrom says. “And Europe is not generally thought of as a destination for pork exports, but there has been some history in the past with significant tonnages going there, and this might allow us to rekindle that demand, especially on items like ham meat.”

Pork variety meat demand was strong in July, with exports posting the second largest volume this year, Halstrom says. He notes pork value fell 4% to $680.9 million, largely reflecting the 10% decline in pork variety meat prices due to China’s tariffs.

Through the first seven months of 2025, pork exports were 4% below last year’s record pace in both volume (1.69 million mt) and value ($4.8 billion).

A Major Thorn in the Side for U.S. Beef

U.S. beef performed very well in July in leading market South Korea, as well as in the Caribbean, Central America, Chile, the Philippines and Africa. But with shipments to China nearly halted due to a lack of eligible plants, July beef exports were down 19% from a year ago to 89,579 mt, the lowest in five years. Export value declined 17% to $752.5 million, the lowest since January 2023.

“We were down about 19% at just about 90,000 metric tons. The vast majority of that decrease is attributable to China, which we fully expected,” Halstrom adds. “China continues to be a major thorn in our side in terms of lack of access, with the vast majority of the beef plants and cold storages not listed for China.”

Halstrom says this continues to be a very high profile priority for USTR and USDA, and USMEF is pushing strongly in that area.

“Outside of China, demand continues to be pretty resilient. Korea had a very good month in the month of July. We saw growth in excess of 10% there. While down slightly, Japan had a fairly good month as well,” he says.

From January through July, beef exports were 8% below last year in volume (691,800 mt) and down 7.5% in value ($5.67 billion).

Pork Industry Encouraged by Preferential Market Access in US-EU Trade Framework

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 18:58:37 GMT

The White House announced a United States-European Union Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade on Aug. 21. The Framework Agreement aims to resolve trade imbalances and maximize the U.S. and EU’s combined economic power in an ongoing process to improve market access and increase the U.S./EU trade and investment relationship, according to the Administration.

“America’s pork producers are encouraged by the specific inclusion of pork in the U.S.-EU framework to address tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade. We look forward to continued collaboration to address longstanding market access issues,” says National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) president Duane Stateler, a pork producer from McComb, Ohio.

U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO Dan Halstrom is encouraged to see that the European Union will provide preferential market access for pork and bison meat, has committed to streamlining requirements for U.S. pork sanitary certificates, and intends to address other non-tariff barriers affecting agricultural trade – including its deforestation regulation.

“These changes are long overdue, and USMEF greatly appreciates the Trump administration making agricultural market access a top priority in negotiations with the EU and with other key trading partners,” Halstrom says. “The U.S. has been a net importer of red meat from the EU due to the vast barriers the EU imposes on imports, and addressing the EU’s tariff and non-tariff barriers is absolutely essential for U.S. export growth.”

For decades, pork trade between the U.S. and the EU has been weighted to favor EU interests, NPPC says. In 2024, the U.S. exported $7 million of pork products to the EU while importing over $709 million from the EU. To compare, the U.S. currently exports more pork to Honduras than to the 27 countries total that make up the EU.

Halstrom adds that it’s critical that U.S. beef exports to the EU – which are already heavily restricted – face no further regulatory obstacles related to deforestation. With U.S. agriculture posing negligible risk to global deforestation, USMEF thanks the Trump administration for securing a commitment from the EU to address concerns of U.S. producers and exporters regarding the EU Deforestation Regulation.

'A Bit of Relief' Follows Japan Trade and Investment Agreement

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 19:49:30 GMT

Japan’s lead tariff negotiator was in Washington, D.C. this past week seeking to finalize details of the U.S.-Japan Trade and Investment Agreement that was recently announced by the White House .

“I think there was a bit of relief in the Japanese trade, having met with several importer distributors and member exporters while I was there,” says U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom who was in Tokyo when the agreement was announced. “I think the fact that a deal had been done on autos, which is obviously one of the big sticking points with Japan, and laid to rest any concerns there might have been on possible retaliation from the Japanese side, should a deal not have been reached.”

U.S. red meat exports to Japan were put on a level playing field with other competing nations under the 2020 U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, signed during the first Trump administration, Halstrom notes.

“Most pork is imported at zero tariff,” Halstrom says. “While Japan’s beef tariff is currently the highest of any major import market at 21.6%, it is level with other suppliers and is scheduled to phase to 9% by 2033.”

He says the 2020 agreement put the U.S. on a level playing field, even though U.S. duties are higher than some other countries.

“The fact that we got this deal done, at least at the minimum, maintains that level playing field,” Halstrom adds. “I think that’s important to remember, because it wasn’t that long ago where we were at a severe disadvantage tariff wise.”

Big Wins for Beef Exports: What It Means for the Industry

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 21:25:05 GMT

Australia has moved to reduce restrictions on U.S. beef imports as an attempt to smooth trade talks with the Trump administration and avoid tariffs. The U.S. beef industry has had several trade wins this week with frameworks also announced with top beef export markets like Japan and South Korea.

The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) took effect in 2005 and was intended to allow U.S. beef to be sold in Australia. During the past 20 years, Australia has used countless tactics to delay implementation of the agreement and prevent any shipments of fresh or frozen U.S. beef from entering Australia.

Kent Bacus, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association executive director of government affairs, says during the same 20-year period, “They’ve been able to ship roughly $29 billion worth of beef to our market, but because of a lot of bureaucratic red tape and all in the name of biosecurity Australia has kept us out.”

🇺🇸👍 Another trade win for American beef industry@POTUS has secured greater ag market access to Australia for U.S. beef producers. Statement from @SecRollins ➡️ https://t.co/OtSdn8smu6 pic.twitter.com/lxAkAqu40t
— Dept. of Agriculture (@USDA) July 24, 2025

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins issued a statement congratulating President Donald Trump on the Australia announcement.

“American farmers and ranchers produce the safest, healthiest beef in the world. It’s absurd that non-scientific trade barriers prevented our beef from being sold to consumers in Australia for the last 20 years,” she says.

NCBA President and Nebraska Cattleman Buck Wehrbein adds, “NCBA has spent decades working to correct this trade imbalance, and we are proud to have a president who is willing to fight for American farmers and ranchers, expand export markets and fix unfair trade agreements across the world.”

With the announcement, Australia has approved importation of U.S. fresh and frozen beef of all ages, allowing the U.S. to ship product very soon.

“This is a big win for us,” Bacus says.

He explains this paves the way for complementary trade and growth as Australia is currently not a big market for U.S. beef. It is an opportunity for the U.S. to develop a consumer base in Australia for higher end cuts.

Japan Framework Released

Bacus says the new framework with Japan , also extends gains from the existing Free Trade Agreement and he hopes the president is eventually able to negotiate the tariff on U.S. beef down to zero.

“That tariff is phasing down to 9%, we’re about halfway there, but we really need to kind of push that along because Japanese consumers want our product,” he says.

Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO, says, “USMEF greatly appreciates the Trump administration’s agreement with Japan, reassuring and expanding opportunities in the No. 2 export destination for U.S. beef and pork.

“In President Trump’s first term, the critical U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement was reached, returning U.S. red meat to a level playing field in Japan and restoring its position as an extremely reliable market,” Halstrom says. “According to the information released by the White House, the new agreement focuses on reinforcing the long-term economic partnership between the U.S. and Japan, which for decades has delivered tremendous benefits for the U.S. livestock and meat industries and for Japanese consumers, importers and customers.”

Other Frameworks and Opportunities

South Korea and the U.S. reaffirmed their commitment to reach a trade agreement ahead of the Aug. 1 U.S.-imposed deadline when U.S. tariffs are set to rise.

South Korea’s framework would also expand the FTA struck in 2012. Bacus says they’re pushing to get BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) beef restrictions still in place since the U.S. regained market access in 2008 removed.

“For Korea, all we asked was for consultations to remove that 30-month restriction that we have due to BSE,” he says. “We know that is a sensitive issue for Korea, but quite honestly, there’s no scientific justification for keeping us out. And we have developed a lot of trust with Korean consumers.”

Since the FTA in 2012, Korea has become the largest export market for U.S. beef with sales of more than $2 billion annually.

Bacus also mentioned progress is being made with Indonesia and other Asian Pacific countries. He appreciates Trump’s push to get the U.S. back to the negotiating table.

“For the last four years, the Biden administration had stepped away from that. We were not talking about market access. We weren’t talking about a lot of significant trade issues,” he says. “We were able to get a couple of technical things resolved, but overall, there weren’t real benefits being delivered for agriculture, and that has shifted. And other countries know that other countries are looking to avoid this Aug. 1 deadline for retaliation. This presents a good opportunity for us to basically make up for a lot of lost time.”

China Hopes Continue

Bacus says they are closely watching next week’s talks between the U.S. and China.

The third round of discussions is set to take place in Stockholm and while it isn’t likely to result in a deal, it is an important step in the process.

He emphasizes that China did not fulfill their purchase obligations under the Phase One deal and has also failed to renew export certifications for 394 U.S. beef plants, which is effectively keeping the U.S. out of the Chinese market.

“China could be a good market, but we cannot put all of our eggs in one basket,” he summarizes. “We need to really build demand around the world and build relationships with trusted partners, starting with our allies. We’re hopeful that we can resolve issues with China, but we have to be realistic in the fact that China will play these games from time to time, and we need access to markets we can trust, that are dependable and that are going to live up to their word.”

Possible 50% Tariff on Brazil Also a Win

President Trump has also threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, which would include beef.

Bacus says NCBA would like Brazil’s market access to be fully stripped due to concerns regarding Foot and Mouth Disease but this move would effectively help level the playing field.

“In the last five years, we’ve only been able to export $21 million worth of U.S. beef to Brazil,” he says. “Meanwhile, they’ve sold about $4.5 billion worth of beef into this market. A lot of that is lean trim, we fully understand, but you’ve got to look at that significant imbalance and look at the cause of that, and it’s these unfair trade practices.”

He adds Brazil shouldn’t have access to the U.S. until it can demonstrate it has an equivalent level of food safety and animal health.

Why Now is the Time To Move Used Construction Iron in the Farm Equipment Auction World

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 13:51:25 GMT

Casey Seymour and Greg “Machinery Pete” Peterson agree now is the time when many farmers spend time shopping for what they call auxiliary machinery — things like wheel loaders, skid steers, track loaders and other compact and heavy utility equipment types.

“Skid steers are one of the first things that pop up when in my mind when I start thinking about that right now,” says Seymour, adding there is almost always a healthy supply of the versatile material movers in the used market.

Machinery Pete recalls skid steer values falling a bit last year due to that high supply, but this year is a different story. Values are trending up on used because, once again, the cost of a brand-new skid steer is high.

(Machinery Pete Facebook)

“Pifer’s Auction had a sale (recently), and I think it was a 2024 Deere 335 P-Tier with 275 hours on it, give or take, and I thought that sold really well at $94,000 hard cash,” Pete says.

Another notable transaction came out of Illinois, Pete recalls. At a Joel Everett Tractors & Auction sale, a 2009 John Deere 325 with under 300 hours sold for $36,000, which was well over the previous auction high of $28,500.

“It was interesting. When they got to the skid steer they paused and said, ‘Hey, folks, this 2009 model is loaded with every single option,’ which is unusual for a 16-year-old model,” Pete adds. “But again, it was palpable how many people wanted that thing, and you know, $36,000 is a big check — but for hardly any hours on it and what you’re going to pay for a new one?”

Pete and Seymour also discuss the firming up they are seeing with used values on some of the large construction equipment seen around the farm, including excavators, wheel loaders and bulldozers.

How Kerr Auctions is Unlocking Export Markets

Alex Kerr of Kerr Auctions joined the guys next to discuss how his auction house is carving out space in the export market.

Kerr says the company has capitalized on growing equipment demand overseas by creating specialized sales that cater to export buyers. These sales often feature equipment that may not have strong domestic buyer interest due to age or condition.

Kerr has established partnerships to help overseas buyers handle logistics and shipping, and the company made the decision to eliminate buyer penalties for high bidders. Both decisions demonstrate a level of transparency and trust that helps put buyer minds at ease, he thinks.

“Specialized sales do well,” Kerr says. “We got to thinking that the export buyers, they hate some of the auction things they deal with. They don’t speak the language; you’ve got to talk to them on WhatsApp, or they have an online only presence.”

Kerr Auction’s next big export-focused Inaugural Farmer/Dealer Consignment Sale is set for Aug. 14. Check out all the details here.

The Rest of the Episode

Shawn Hackett, president and CEO of Hackett Financial, joined the show for an update on where commodity markets sit today and row crop futures prices. Glen Birnbaum, principal with Sikich, came on to talk machine depreciation rates and upcoming changes to tax law.

And Aaron Fintel, used equipment specialist with 21st Century Equipment, gave his view on moving used compact construction equipment out on the western plains.

Head over to YouTube to watch the full episode , and give it a “Thumbs Up” and hit the “Subscribe” button to get every Moving Iron episode as soon as it drops.

Impasse with China Weighs Heavily on May Exports of U.S. Red Meat

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 15:07:14 GMT

Exports of U.S. beef and pork trended lower in May, due primarily to steep declines in shipments to China, according to data released by U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). May exports of U.S. lamb cuts increased year-over-year, driven mainly by growing demand in Mexico.

In April and the first half of May, China’s total tariff rate on U.S. pork peaked at 172%, while the rate for U.S. beef was 147%. Even following a May 14 joint announcement temporarily easing tariffs for 90 days, China’s rates still stand at 57% for U.S. pork and 32% for U.S. beef. In addition, most U.S. beef production is ineligible due to China’s failure — since February — to renew expiring beef plant and cold storage facility registrations.

“The situation with China obviously had a severe impact on May exports, underscoring the importance of diversification and further development of alternative markets,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The need for progress in the U.S.-China trade negotiations is extremely urgent because tariffs could soar again on Aug. 12. This deadline is already impacting exporters’ decisions about whether to continue producing for the Chinese market. On the bright side, amid all this uncertainty, demand for U.S. red meat remains robust in many key regions.”

May Beef Exports to Korea Largest in more than Two Years

Beef exports totaled 97,266 mt in May, down 12% and the lowest in nearly five years. Export value was $798.7 million, down 11.5% and the lowest in 18 months. But exports to leading market South Korea were outstanding, posting the largest monthly volume in more than two years and the highest value in nearly three years. May beef exports also trended higher year-over-year to Central and South America, the Dominican Republic, the United Arab Emirates and Africa.

May beef exports to China plunged to just under 1,400 mt, down 91% from a year ago. Export value fell 90% to less than $15 million.

January-May beef exports were down 5% from last year’s pace at 508,293 mt, while value declined 3% to $4.15 billion.

Pork Exports Lower Overall, but Latin American Markets Shined in May

May pork exports totaled 224,162 metric tons (mt), down 11% from a year ago, while value fell 10% to $646.5 million. Although these were the lowest monthly totals since September 2023, shipments increased year-over-year to Mexico, Central America and Colombia, and were record-large to Cuba. Pork exports to all of these markets are on a record pace in 2025.

Pork exports to China, which are mainly variety meat, dropped to just 6,720 mt in May, down 82% from a year ago, while value fell 77% to $20.7 million.

Through the first five months of the year, pork exports were down 6% in volume (1.22 million mt) and 5% in value ($3.43 billion) compared to the record pace of 2024.

May Lamb Exports Largest of 2025

May exports of U.S. lamb muscle cuts reached a 2025 high of 363 mt, essentially doubling (up 99%) from a year ago, while value increased 71% to $1.8 million. The increase was driven mainly by growth in Mexico, where exports were the largest since 2019 at nearly 200 mt. May shipments also rebounded to Canada.

January-May lamb exports were 44% above last year at 1,367 mt, while value climbed 25% to $7.4 million. Exports to Mexico surged more than 80% in both volume (673 mt) and value ($2.34 million), driven by growing demand for alternative cuts such as shoulder and breast meat. Exports to the Caribbean, which remains the leading value destination for U.S. lamb, also increased year-over-year.

A detailed summary of the January-May export results for U.S. pork, beef and lamb, including market-specific highlights, is available from the USMEF website .

Your Next Read: Understanding Basis: The Biggest Risk in the Cattle Market Today

U.S. Ag Trade Deficit Hits Record High In First Four Months Of 2025

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Three years and counting – that’s how long U.S. agriculture has been in an agricultural trade deficit – reports Faith Parum, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist.

“From January through April, the United States imported $78.2 billion in agricultural products while exporting just $58.5 billion. This $19.7 billion deficit is the largest ever recorded for the first four months of a year and signals that the 2025 deficit could surpass previous records,” Parum says in a new AFBF report .

(AFBF Calculations; USDA FAS)

In early June, the USDA raised its forecast of the U.S. agriculture trade deficit for fiscal-year 2025 to $49.5 billion, from the $49 billion it previously forecast in February.

Imports of high-value food items, such as fruits and vegetables, have driven the growing deficit, according to Parum, who says they represent the largest trade deficit category.

Have The Deficit Numbers Already Peaked?

While the forecast is concerning, Stephen Nicholson, Rabo AgriFinance global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, says he is hopeful the agricultural trade deficit for 2025 has already reached its peak.

“My expectation is that we should see that trade deficit in agriculture come back a little because we have all this product, food, in our warehouses now, ready for consumers,” Nicholson told Farm Journal.

(USDA FAS GATS, USDA ERS Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2025)

Essentially, Nicholson says, many buyers made and imported larger food purchases than usual this spring to get those products into the U.S. ahead of potential trade tariffs the Trump administration announced would be imposed on Liberation Day, April 2.

“You know, when we saw that chart (from President Trump on the planned tariffs), I think a lot of us were pretty taken back by some of the eye-popping numbers we saw there. And then, of course, we came back a week later and they were cut in half.”

No One Knows ‘The Rules Of The Road’

Nicholson says the lack of certainty on tariffs, and other factors – ranging from conflict in the Middle East to high input costs and interest rates – has created challenges for all agricultural industries and farmers, including livestock producers.

“No one knows the rules of the road today,” he says. “Right now, no one wants to plan or invest or expend capital for plants, for expansion, because we don’t know what the economic environment is going to look like as we go six months to a year down the road.”

At the core of the problem is a rapidly evolving global marketplace that the U.S. appears increasingly ill-equipped to navigate, according to an article by Pro Farmer editors .

From shifting supply chains to aggressive trade strategies by key competitors like Brazil, Australia, and the EU, the landscape for ag exports is changing fast — and the U.S. is falling behind, they contend.

“We have no plan — none — to deal with this growing trade gap,” one senior industry executive says. “It’s not just bad policy; it’s no policy at all.”

Trade Deals Could Help The Situation

Farm groups continue to urge the White House to prioritize new trade deals that open markets for ag products.

But some industry insiders say the administration is too focused on broad tariff threats and “reciprocal tariffs,” while neglecting granular trade promotion and technical access issues that matter most for ag commodities, Pro Farmer reports.

At the grassroots level, Nicholson encourages corn and soybean to stay focused on market opportunities that could come up in the next week, given the weather conditions across the U.S.

“We’re in this very hot weather across the Corn Belt right now. If this forecast doesn’t quite pan out for the rest of the week, and more hot weather, and more rain or no rain, the market may react. Be prepared for those rallies in the market, and reward those rallies,” he encourages.

Your next read: Lift the Fog: 4 Drivers of Farm Profitability To Watch in 2025

Tourism Driving Central American Demand for U.S. Beef

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 12:57:02 GMT

With “meat boutiques” becoming more popular across Central America, consumers have access to more higher-end cuts of U.S. beef. Lucia Ruano, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) regional representative, says sales have been promoted through support from USDA and the Beef Checkoff Program.

“We have a variety of this type of stores that have become very trendy and very convenient for consumers,” Ruano says.

Commercial partners are supported in a variety of ways in order to grow their businesses. This includes seminars about the industry and the cuts of meat being promoted, master classes for demonstrating preparation techniques sponsoring barbecue competitions and festivals, she adds.

“We also have trade teams where we bring our commercial partners to the U.S. to learn first-hand from the industry,” Ruano explains. “And of course, we have social media that is a very important tool for us.”

Through April, beef exports to Central America increased 9% from a year ago in volume (8,131 metric tons), while value soared 30% to more than $70 million. Tourism growth in new areas like El Salvador and Guatemala have contributed to the increased demand.

According to Ruano, the Central America region received 11% more visitors in 2024 than 2023. El Salvador received 3.9 million visitors, which is a historic record.

“El Salvador has become a very secure country now, and they have been doing a lot of promotion of the beaches that they have,” Ruano says. “International tourism is getting to know this country.”

While Costa Rica has always been the first country in tourism for Central America, it was surpassed by El Salvador and Guatemala for the first time.

“There is a boom in tourism here, and governments are investing to meet the growing demand,” Ruano adds.

Your next read: Beef Profit Tracker: Feedlot Margins Average Estimated $839/head

Trump's Aggressive Trade Agenda Is Back On

Thu, 29 May 2025 20:40:19 GMT

The interruption to President Donald Trump’s trade agenda was short lived.

A federal appeals court has now granted the Trump administration’s request to temporarily pause the Wednesday lower-court ruling that declared an emergency law does not provide President Trump with unilateral authority to impose tariffs on nearly every country — a decision that would have blocked reciprocal tariff announcements dating back to February.

The original ruling was issued by a three-judge panel at The U.S. Court of International Trade. The judges said the sweeping tariffs and other global levies imposed under the International Emergency Economic Power Act were unlawful, which invalidates President Trump’s April 2 reciprocal tariff order. That order included 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, 25% tariffs on select goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as a blanket 10% tariff on most imported goods.

The Trump administration then filed a notice of appeal, which was granted on Thursday by a federal appeals court. The pause gives the Trump administration some additional time to prepare to argue the law empowers the president to unilaterally launch a global tariff strategy.

Before the appeal was announced, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt slammed the U.S. Court of International Trade ruling on Trump’s tariffs. Leavitt said the judges were “overstepping their bounds.” You can listen to her comments below.

How could this ruling potentially impact trade? We asked Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing that question before the appeals court weighed in. He says to answer that, you first need to ask two main questions.

“In the short run, not much. You have to assume the administration is going to appeal the ruling and the question is going to be ‘Will the appeals process result in a stay, either freezing the tariff implementation or allowing it to continue during the appeal process?’ That’s the first question,” Brugler says.

Brugler says his second question is how this could impact current trade negotiations. Just last week, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said he expects several large trade deals to be announced in the next couple of weeks.

“What does it do to the administration’s leverage on the deals that they said we were coming close to,” Brugler adds. “The EU is one example. For now, I think we have to take it with a grain of salt. We also need to remember that it does not affect some of the tariffs, such as the aluminum and steel. Those were implemented under a different section of law that had been used back in the 2017 and 2018 era. Those are still in place. So, it does offer some potential for a lot less aggressive tariff war. But again, this is probably just the first step in the overall process.”

Mike North of Ever.Ag doesn’t think this gives President Trump’s administration less leverage. Instead, he chalks up the ruling to the ongoing theme of federal courts trying to overturn any major action Trump tries to take.

“I think as you look at the landscape, he’s come into office very aggressively — trying to enact very quickly the promises he made in his campaign. Ultimately, as you look at the flow of things, we had to expect the court was going to weigh in on this tariff discussion at some point. There hasn’t been a thing he’s done that hasn’t resulted in some form of a lawsuit, court order, court filing, judgment or otherwise. This is just the natural next step in this discussion,” North says.

North points out there are ways to differentiate how President Trump can leverage this, specifically referencing the 1974 Trade Act.

“That ultimately has many parts and pieces to it, and to Alan’s point, allows him to take a lot of different angles here. So, I don’t think anything that’s come out over the last couple of days on this discussion is really going to change the course of much of anything — at least in the short run,” North says.

What is the U.S. Court of International Trade?
If you’ve never heard of the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT), you aren’t alone. CIT is based in New York, and its purpose is to resolve disputes between governments, manufacturers, trade associations and other parties that may be privy to trade dealings.

According to the Court’s website, “from the time of its establishment, the United States Court of International Trade and its predecessor bodies have been designed to provide a comprehensive system for judicial review of civil actions arising out of import transactions and federal transactions affecting international trade.”

Mark A. Barnett, chief judge at CIT, says, “As the impact of international trade on the U.S. economy has expanded, there has been a corresponding increase in international trade disputes — involving governments, foreign and domestic manufacturers, workers’ unions, trade associations and individuals — and a continued need to provide consistent, fair and impartial adjudication of these disputes. While the nature of these disputes shifts between classification and valuation, unfair trade practices and various types of enforcement measures, the United States Court of International Trade continues to strive for the just, speedy, and inexpensive determination of every action and proceeding brought before it.”