Forecast

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 12:51:33 GMT

Something is missing in eastern Nebraska that Dave Warner says is usually available in abundance – and then some – on his farm in mid-July: sunshine and dry weather conditions. Warner refuses to complain, though, given how dry his soils were at corn planting time in May. Still, he would be happy if Mother Nature would ease up on the moisture deliveries just a tad.

“We’ve had a lot of rain; in the last 30 days, we probably had 18.5 inches. We had an inch overnight again last night,” he said on Thursday. “We are inundated with moisture.”

Weather Outlook Just Ahead

Warner’s weather scenario might or might not change this weekend, given his area is on the cusp of a new forecast. It’s one meteorologists believe will deliver high temperatures and dry conditions to parts of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

(NOAA)

But first, the National Weather Service (NWS) says those regions will have to endure strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains this weekend. Then, those regions will see a heat dome start to build.

“We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend,” says Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. “It’s going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most.”

(BAM Weather on X, formerly Twitter)

Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, says temperatures could reach dangerously high, searing levels next week. He says, in summary:

By mid-week, temperatures in the 90s will have spread from the South into the lower Midwest. By late in the week, at least some 90s are possible in the Northeast.

Parts of the South could see triple-digit highs for several days in a row, including Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.

Overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s will become increasingly common as the heat wave builds. That won’t allow much heat relief at night.

Michael Clark, with BAM Weather, says he has concerns about a lack of moisture in three states, in particular.

“If there’s a spot where we want to talk about there needing to be some moisture, it is Illinois, Indiana and Michigan,” he told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan this past week. “They are running about 25% to 50% of the normal. Despite what anyone is saying right now, it needs to rain there.”

Warmer nighttime lows are not particularly ideal for corn production, notes Clark. But he offers farmers some encouragement as he evaluates the potential impact of current weather trends on yield projections.

“In my opinion, we are tracking close to three years – 2005, 2021 and 2024. In 2005 and 2021 we had above-trend yields, and 2024 was very big,” he says, adding for 2025: “Indications are the weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall.”

Your next read: Grains Surge Friday: Was it Weather and Did it Bottom the Market?

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 22:13:00 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:49 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

A Warming Trend Is On The Way For Early March

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 22:13:21 GMT

If early March weather rolls out the way some ag industry experts are predicting, farmers might be tempted to break out their shorts and sunscreen.

“It’s going to be warm, very warm for most of March,” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Services said on the latest Moving Iron podcast, with Host Casey Seymore.

Above average temperatures for much of the U.S. are in the forecast for March 2-6, 2025.

(NOAA)

What’s at play currently, Hackett said, is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that could take temperatures a notch higher than usual during the next few weeks.

Hackett said the polar stratosphere is in the middle stages of developing what he called “one of the top five strongest sudden stratospheric warming events” he’s ever seen going into early March.

“The stratosphere, which normally is super cold, gets displaced and you get this extreme warming above the North Pole. When that happens, then the entire stratosphere gets unstable and starts to lose its cohesiveness,” explained Hackett, whose interest in the weather is fueled by what it can mean to grain markets.

His hope, in fact, is that the weather in early March could be a positive catalyst for grain markets. “It could offer a tremendous cash selling opportunity not only for the old crop but maybe even for the new crop that’s coming along,” Hackett said.

Maybe A Short-Lived Weather Pattern?
But don’t expect higher temperatures to persist beyond the next few weeks. There will likely be colder conditions coming in right behind them by late March to early April, according to Ag Meteorologist Drew Lerner, founder and owner of World Weather, Inc.

Lerner told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week he believes two things will come out of the current weather pattern and then go through spring.

First, Lerner believes the moisture availability in the upper Midwest and parts of the western Corn Belt will continue to be lighter than normal, which will encourage farmers to plant.

Second, he believes the risk of late-season frost and freeze across corn and soybean country will be much higher in 2025 than it has been in recent past years.

“We may see a period like right now, where we warm up nicely, and crops will take advantage of that and really get going aggressively. Then, we could turn around and bring a cold wave in and knock those crops down,” Lerner told Flory. “That’s one of my biggest concerns for spring, besides the dryness we already mentioned in the western Corn Belt.

Conditions in the West, Southwest and portions of the Midwest are going to continue to be dry, as March gets underway.

(Eric Snodgrass, U.S. Meterologist)

“I do think, though, with that aside, we will see aggressive planting this spring in the western and central parts of the Midwest, because I don’t think we’re going to have so much moisture around that we can’t be that way,” Lerner added.

Beware Of Frost And Freeze
Hackett’s prediction for April weather coincides with Lerner’s concerns. Going back to his prediction for a sudden stratospheric warming in early March, Hackett said that what often follows an SSW about 45 days later is a cooling off trend.

“You have the potential for some very cold, wintry type of weather that can easily bring in a hard freeze. That should create a considerable amount of unfavorable planting season, either delayed planting or planting that gets done and gets frozen over and replanting winter wheat that gets frost as it comes out of dormancy,” Hackett said.

Ken Ferrie recalls farmers in western Illinois were planting early soybeans by March 21 in 2024. He encouraged farmers who want to plant early to exercise some caution.

“An important consideration is whether you have crop insurance,” said Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

For farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt, Lerner said he doesn’t believe they will be able to plant as quickly as their western brethren because of excess moisture the region has received through the Ohio Valley and is likely to continue to get this spring.

Expect Temperatures To ‘Bounce Around’
As for temperatures, Lerner believes they will average close to normal but will bounce around this spring. “So we’ll be warm, and then we’ll get cold, and we’ll go back into warm again,” he said.

Flory asked Lerner whether he would put some odds on the potential for drought conditions this summer.

“I’d say that we probably have a 25% to 30% chance that we could have a more serious dryness problem in the West. But I am being conservative with that, possibly. I really want to see what happens over these next three to four weeks,” Lerner said.

“There’s no meteorologist out there that I know of that’s ever predicted a bad drought in the summer this far in advance, and I’m not going to be the first one,” Lerner added. “I’ll leave that up for somebody else.”

You can hear Lerner’s conversation with Chip Flory here:

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 15:02:27 GMT

What if you could know the timing of significant weather events for your area during the next six months with 91% accuracy?

Now you can, according to Gary Lezak, a former meteorologist with KSHB-TV in Kansas City turned weather entrepreneur.

Lezak’s business, Weather 20/20, provides weather-based data analytics on a global basis to its customers, who range from farmers to retailers to general consumers.

Eighty Years In The Making
Lezak learned in the mid-1980s that a weather cycle exists, an insight he attributes to Jerome Namais, who first addressed the concept in the 1940s. Namais, a renowned American meteorologist, was Chief of the United States Weather Bureau’s Extended Forecast Section in Washington, D.C. from 1941 to 1971.

“What it’s all about is the weather pattern above us – the river of air that goes across North America through the westerly belt, across to Europe, Asia, and then back around across the Pacific. That jet stream flow, that river of air above us, has an order to it,” Lezak told Andrew McCrea, host of the Farming The Countryside podcast, during a recent conversation.

For the next 20 years Lezak continued to study the weather cycling concept, refining what he learned as he went along.

By the early 2000s, Lezak was blogging about what he had learned, eventually calling the concept he developed the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). He founded Weather 20/20 in 2008.

“The LRC is all about the cycle,” Lezak says. “After many years of practicing it, 20 to 30 years of using it, we are able to predict when and where and a little bit of the what,” with regard to weather, he told McCrea.

The core tenet of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern establishes itself every year. It starts to set up in early October, with develpment continuing through early January. By then, Lezak says the pattern can be identified and predictions of every day’s weather around the world can be produced.

Based on the LRC, Lezak says he can predict with a 91% accuracy level when and where there will be major weather events – from snowstorms to hurricanes to droughts – for the next seven to eight months in the U.S.

“That (timing) is the sweet spot of the LRC and fits agriculture perfectly,” Lezak says.

He adds that Mother Nature still creates weather disruptions he can’t predict 9% of the time, based on influences such as El Nino, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

Lezak’s take on the accuracy of weather forecasts differs from what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, though an apples-to-apples comparison is not available.

The NOAA says a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Agriculture Takes Notice
As Lezak was honing the development of the LRC in the early 2000s, fellow meteorologist, Dean Wysocki, then based in Nebraska, learned of it and reached out to Lezak for more details.

Wysocki started using the information he learned during his broadcasts, noting that Nebraska farmers were hungry for more accurate weather insights and predictions.

“I’ll tell you what, it’s a game changer. That’s the easiest way to put it,” says Wysocki, who joined Lezak on the podcast.

Wysocki, now based in Fargo, N.D., got LRC certified and began telling farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota about its benefits.

“It’s a major piece of long-term weather forecasting, and the accuracy on it has just been amazing,” Wysocki says. “We’ve signed up between about 50 to 100 in our ag community and we’ve got nothing but positive feedback. Is it 100% correct? No, nothing is, but it’s a great tool to have on your tool belt.”

The Weather Outlook Ahead
During the conversation with McCrea, Lezak and Wysocki shared some of their weather predictions for late winter and early spring 2025, based on information the LRC has provided. Here are three of their predictions:

1. Lezak says a La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a grip currently on parts of the western and upper Corn Belt areas, but he expects that to ease up.

“That grip that it has tends to shift precipitation patterns to the eastern Corn Belt. That’s not good for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Lezak says. “It shifts precipitation patterns to the East, but that grip we think is going to be let loose by March.”

2. Wysocki says he foresees a wetter spring, in March and April, for most of the Dakotas.

“We’ll get our moisture that we need in March and more than likely into the first part of April, and that should be good for planting season,” he says. “I’m still concerned about the western Dakotas into areas of Montana and Wyoming, worried that they’ll remain dry.”

3. With regard to drought, Lezak encourages farmers to keep an eye on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, as he says droughts are constantly either shrinking or expanding.

“It appears that over the last year or so that areas of drought, as we look at the entire nation, have begun to decrease,” he says. “This one has been shrinking for weeks, and that is a good sign. The likelihood of that trend continuing is high.”

Wysocki and Lezak offered additional weather insights during their conversation with McCrea. You can hear more of those specifics on the podcast, available here:

Your next read: With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 19:25:58 GMT

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

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Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 20:30:10 GMT

What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.

Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.

“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”

That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

(NOAA)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.

“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.

Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.

“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Great Lakes region of the U.S.. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

(NOAA)

Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.

“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”

While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.

“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”

That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.

“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”

Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.

“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”

The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.

“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”

But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.

“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”

‘Moisture Opportunity’ Is On Its Way To The Plains

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 21:00:42 GMT

September was one of the driest months on record for parts of the Midwest, and October has continued the dry trend, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, on Tuesday’s show. He asked guest John Homenuk of Empire Weather Consulting, what shut the moisture off in the middle of the country.

“We’ve had this ridge in place since September, which we’re fortunate didn’t happen in late July and August,” Homenuk told Flory. “We’ve kind of been in this really poor cycle for moisture for several weeks.”

Homenuk said parts of the U.S. have been in a fairly weak La Nina weather pattern, which he expects will “oscillate up and down a bit” throughout this fall and into the 2024-25 winter months.

However, Homenuk does anticipate some limited moisture will start to move back into Midwest weather forecasts soon.

“For instance, late this weekend and early next week, we have a moisture opportunity coming into the Plains,” he said. “A low-pressure system could spread out of the Intermountain West into the foothills, and eventually bring some moisture to places like the Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska. That’ll be the first system to come out, and there might even be some scattered showers across parts of the Midwest early next week.”

Meteorologists anticipate weather patterns will continue to lean toward more moisture as November gets underway.

“It’ll be a slow go of it, but the feeling is that we’re through the worst of the dryness now, and we’ll start working back gradually into a more normal pattern,” Homenuk said.

Looking Ahead To Next Spring

Flory asked what kind of weather pattern farmers can anticipate going into the 2025 cropping season.

“There is some indication already on models that we’re going to split up again, between a La Nina and El Nino,” Homenuk said. “Some of the indications stay near neutral, so not a La Nina or El Nino, and some of them start actually sending us back into El Nino by spring and summer of next year. I think we need to get through the next couple of months before we really have an inclination of where it’s going to go next year.”

Flory said he’s concerned, given the weather conditions this fall, that next spring will be a dry one.

“It’s kind of common to hear people say, ‘droughts don’t start in the year that they happen. They start in the fall before.’ And I think there’s more than a few producers out there that are concerned that this drought we’ve got in the middle of the country is going to continue on into the spring of next year,” Flory explained.

Homenuk said he believes if the U.S. transitions back to an El Nino weather pattern by spring, that should be generally viewed as a good thing.

“That would reintroduce some more moisture. If we stay neutral, or we stay in a weak La Nina into the spring, then I think those lingering drought concerns could make their way into the growing season in 2025,” he added.

Weather Outlook For South America

Flory asked what kind weather South America, Brazil and Argentina in particular, will see for its growing season.

“We’re kind of into this weak La Nina scenario,” Homenuk said. “What tends to happen down there in South America is you get a little bit of a mixed bag. So, it was a slow start over the last couple of weeks, but now we’re seeing a pattern change across central Brazil, essentially Mato Grosso southward, where there’s moisture coming into the forecast over the next several weeks.”

He added that the same could likely be said for northern Argentina.

“If you look at the next 15 to 30 days, the moisture forecast is actually pretty solid. They have some ground to make up, given how dry it was before. But I think these weak La Ninas tend to be OK in those regions. It is a kind of pattern indicating that there will be some moisture around it. I think they’ve avoided the worst-case scenario, which would have been a really strong La Nina developing.”

Hear the complete conversation between Homenuk and Flory here:

Summer 2024 Predicted to Bring on the Heat

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 18:58:44 GMT

Bust out the sunscreen and cattle misters. It’s gonna be a hot one this summer if USDA meteorological predictions are correct.

Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of the USDA Midwest Climate Hub , shared on a recent webinar sponsored by the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation that current weather patterns are signaling excessive summer heat ahead.

He said the outlook for July, August, and September is for above-average temperatures in virtually the entire country. The areas showing the greatest likelihood for above-average temperatures are the western third of the country -- minus a band on the far west coast that includes most of California – and the upper New England states.

The precipitation outlook, on the other hand, is neutral, except for a two-to-three-states-deep region along the entire eastern seaboard, which models show having a likelihood of above-average precipitation.

Todey said there are strong signals that the U.S. is in a “rapid transition” between a strong “El Nino” weather pattern to an equally prominent “La Nina” pattern – a shift that will likely occur sometime between June and August 2024.

The current El Nino was short-lived, lasting only about a year, and followed 3 years of a La Nina pattern. El Nino patterns are typically associated with mild winters. This was certainly the case in 23-24, which posted near-record warmest winter temperatures in December, January, and February. The states with the most pronounced warmth compared to normal winter temps included North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, and the New England states up to Maine.

La Nina is the opposite counterpart of El Nino. In its most recent, 3-year stretch, it coincided with dry weather in a large part of the country. Todey said Iowa – the nation’s largest corn-producing state – has been in a consistent D1 (moderate) drought since July 2021, a record length for the USDA Drought Monitor.

As of the first week of April 2024, pockets of “Extreme” drought were noted by the Drought Monitor in Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and Texas. Southeastern New Mexico also has an area of “Exceptional” drought, which is the highest categorization of drought status by the Drought Monitor.

“We can’t say for sure whether the next La Nina will perpetuate dry conditions, but there is also no strong indicator of precipitation,” noted Todey. “We will likely be very reliant on getting rainfalls at the right time through the summer.”

The meteorologist has observed an interesting shift in precipitation patterns that is affecting growing seasons. “In terms of temperatures, we’re seeing an increase in growing season length by about 10 days per decade,” he noted. “At the same time, there has been a 20-year trend of midsummer dryness, with more annual rainfall arriving in the spring.”

Coming out of a warm winter is affecting moisture levels on hand. Todey said the lack of frozen soils allowed moisture to absorb more readily – the good news. But the bad news is that warmer temps caused evapo-transpiration to occur at a higher rate. Essentially, the two factors cancelled each other out.

“Iowa is currently at ground-zero for driest soil conditions,” he declared. “While not as widespread, some of those conditions also exist in parts of Missouri and Kansas. It seems probable that we’ll need to preserve moisture this year.”

Looking toward the planting season and beyond, Todey offered the following advice:

Pull back on yield goals for crop projections and inputs. Lackluster soil moisture recovery could limit the effectiveness of fertilizer.
Plant as early as possible to take advantage of spring moisture.
Reduce tillage – every time you do a tillage pass, you lose moisture.
Closely monitor well and groundwater sources upon which you rely for livestock and/or irrigation, so you can proactively develop alternative plans if necessary.

The full webinar and additional comments from Todey can be viewed here .

For more on weather, read:

Punishing Drought Now Expected to Persist Through July Across Texas, Plains

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 13:05:34 GMT

The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook for the U.S. is painting a grim picture for many drought-plagued areas of the Plains. While the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts drought to persist from Kansas to Texas, forecasters also expect drought to improve in parts of Nebraska and Iowa and even disappear in some areas.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center points out the drought situation across the country has dramatically improved for many areas. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought is currently near its lowest point since July 2020. Drought peaked in October of 2022 at nearly 63% of the country, and since then, it’s steadily declined across much of the West, northern Great Plains, Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

(Farm Journal)

Areas of the country seeing relentless drought conditions growing even worse are western Kansas, western Oklahoma and the western half of Texas. This week’s Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates those geographies hardest-hit by drought won’t see much change through July.

“Persistence is more likely for southeast Colorado and much of Kansas with drought so well entrenched in these areas that improvement will be difficult,” the Seasonal Drought Outlook stated. “The highest confidence for removal exists across the Dakotas, Nebraska, eastern Montana and Wyoming.”

Agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass thinks parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado could see better chances for precipitation as we head into May. He thinks those increased chances of could also fall across Oklahoma and Texas.

“This is going to be something we’re going to watch very, very carefully because of the extensive drought in that area,” says Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions. “So, we have to kind of balance it out. Right. We need the moisture in those areas. We need the moisture in the western Corn Belt, but it is slowing down some of this early season fieldwork.”

Hay Day: Wyoming Rancher Grooms Olympic Downhill

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:48:58 GMT

PINEDALE, Wyo. (AP) — The rancher from western Wyoming wears tan overalls pulled over a U.S. ski team jacket, and is every bit as versed in the nuances of hay farming as the subtleties of snow grooming.

He doesn’t even ski for pleasure much anymore due to aching hips, yet the Olympic fates of Lindsey Vonn, Aksel Lund Svindal and many of the best speed skiers are directly tied to the handiwork of Tom Johnston , a no-nonsense cowboy who spends his days toiling among hay bales on nearly 1,800 acres of leased fields near his home in Boulder, Wyoming (population: 170ish).

Johnston also just happens to be one of the world’s foremost experts on shaping a race course , most notably the downhill and super-G tracks that Vonn, Svindal and the rest will zoom down in February in South Korea.

Every tooth-rattling bump and knee-buckling jump on the Pyeongchang course will have been exhaustively groomed by Johnston and his crew, whose goal, in ski parlance, is to create “hero snow” — the grippy surface on which these world-class speedsters can confidently push the envelope.

“A very nice track,” is what the 55-year-old Johnston is promising for a course that was designed by Bernhard Russi , the Swiss downhiller who won Olympic gold in 1972. Johnston has made seven journeys from his home to South Korea over the past two years to inspect and shape the Olympic terrain. “I really enjoy it.”

Johnston has six weather websites loaded onto his phone — including one from South Korea to keep current on conditions — and views them so often that his wife Cassy recently had to increase their phone’s data plan.

He likes to give off a gruff first impression — “I really don’t have time for all these interviews,” he lamented — but, during a leisurely tour of the properties he oversees, it’s clear he’s something far removed from acerbic.

He’s proud of every parcel of this land.

Here lies some of the most sought-after alfalfa in the county. On the other side of a dirt road bordered by badger holes, he shows off his laser-leveled land that produces various classes of hay. They’re meticulously planned out so water doesn’t gather and ruin the consistency of the crop. Across the two-lane highway, reside his roughly 125 head of Red Angus cattle.

On the horizon, the mountain range.

His life used to be a cycle: haying in the summer and, when it turned colder, heading up to Jackson Hole mountain resort so he could coach and direct events the ski club produced. Johnston’s family would follow him there — until the three kids reached school age. He eventually just pulled along a camper or stayed at a cheap place for a few nights before making the 80-mileish drive home.

Back then, Johnston was sometimes spotted wearing a jacket with these words embroidered on the back: “I’d Rather Be Haying.” He honed his craft at Jackson Hole — becoming a course-shaping artist who would water the slopes in extremely cold temperatures to create an icy surface that would hold up from the first racer all the way to the last.

In 1998, the U.S. ski team contracted with the local organizing committee for nationals. As director of Alpine events with the ski club, it was his show.

Johnston’s twists and turns were a hit, along with his organizational skills. Soon after, he became a technical adviser for the U.S. team. He credits Tim “Swampy” LaMarche, his predecessor and another course guru, for teaching him the ins and outs of the profession.

It’s all been trial by error, too.

Johnston was chief for the women’s speed events at the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics and ran the show for the women’s side at the 2014 Sochi Games. He’s known for his aggressive and durable snow, which is precisely the way racers like it. His preference is making it with a snow gun instead of letting Mother Nature do the work.

“Manmade can be super-fine particles so it’s really dense,” explained Johnston, who left for South Korea on Christmas Day. “The natural snow can be dry, fluffy — a real pain.”

He prepared the World Cup course for the women in Killington, Vermont, last month and lent a hand at the World Cup stop in Beaver Creek, Colorado, which is one of the racers’ favorite venues on the circuit.

“The course crew in Beaver Creek is probably the best in the world,” Svindal said. “We always have perfect conditions.”

In South Korea, Johnston’s main tasks include: Build and maintain the snow surface, including the macro features such as jumps and rolls, manage the snowcat operators and installation of safety features. His aim is to help Russi’s downhill design spring to life.

The men’s and women’s downhill tracks vary only slightly, with the men starting at a higher spot and diverging at one point through a narrow gully before merging again. Along the way, there will be four major jumps, which have been modified since a test event held at the site nearly two years ago. The changes should provide smoother, safer landings for the skiers who will be traveling around 80 mph (128.7 kph).

“We have changed the landing zone of the jumps,” Russi said. "(It) means that the jumps will go longer this time. For sure, I will like it. But I will be nervous as well.”

On his farm two months ago, Johnston was worrying more about his hay crop than the ski slope after a quick visit to South Korea for course inspection. There was a snow storm about to blow through and he still had to stack 200 tons of hay. His wife — who works as a dental hygienist and helps in the fields in the afternoon — was driving a truck to haul the bales, while two more workers pitched in. They were up until 1:30 a.m. to accomplish the feat. It snowed three hours later.

Tom and Cassy met at the Green Mountain Valley ski school in Vermont as teenagers and got married in 1986. She occasionally travels with him to races, where he’s been known to ride with the snowcat operators at night as they groom the course or sleep with a radio next to his pillow so he can hear the chatter of those working on his hill.

Quality speed courses and hay are his pride and joy, and they have more in common than you might think. Both take attention to detail. Both depend on Mother Nature. Neither can ever be perfect.

Not that he’ll ever stop trying.

“I get really fussy with every element,” said Johnston, a former racer at Montana State and Whitman College in Washington, where he earned his degree in English literature. “The guys that hay for me, my wife, it drives them crazy. I’ve never put up a good hay bale, because there’s always this wrong with it or that wrong with it. Same with a course.

“But give me good weather and it will be a good course,” he said.

Copyright 2017, The Associated Press

First Thing Today: Farmers Take Advantage of Planting Window

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:22 GMT

Dollar drop spurs short-covering to start the week... Corn futures are up 1 to 2 cents amid some corrective buying to start the week. Soybeans also enjoyed short-covering overnight and most contracts are currently up 6 to 7 cents. Winter wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher, while spring wheat is up fractionally to a penny. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower today, while crude oil futures are firmer.

Lawmakers to vote on Perdue, Trump to meet with ag stakeholders... Lawmakers return to Washington after their two-week spring break -- the Senate today and the House on Tuesday. First up for the Senate will be a vote on the nomination of Sonny Perdue to be USDA secretary. The chamber is expected to easily approve Perdue. Lawmakers must also come to terms on how to keep the government funded beyond Friday when the current funding mechanism expires. President Donald Trump will host a roundtable discussion with farmers and will sign an executive order to protect and provide relief for rural America on Tuesday. He will also release his own tax plan as early as Wednesday. Get more details about what’s ahead .

Farmers take advantage of planting window... Drier weather over the weekend allowed many farmers across the Corn Belt to get into the field, with more planting efforts likely today before rains move into the lower and eastern Corn Belt on Tuesday and Wednesday. The National Weather Service forecast for April 29 to May 3 calls for cool, wet conditions across the Midwest, which would also slow planting efforts. Meanwhile, World Weather Inc. reports some hard freezes occurred in Colorado and Nebraska over the weekend, with light freezes reported in Kansas and the western Texas Panhandle. It details that this likely burned back the vegetative development of the crop, but permanent damage was unlikely.

Vomitoxin increasingly a concern... The fungus vomitoxin has increasingly been an issue with the 2016 corn crop in Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio, and parts of Iowa and Michigan, according to the food testing firm Neogen Corp. Neogen reports a 29% jump in global sales for toxin tests, including strong demand for vomitoxin tests, in the third fiscal year quarter. Heavy rain before and during harvest led to the storage of some wet grain last fall, plus the record size of the crop meant some of it was stored on the ground or in other makeshift ways. Poultry and pork farmers are having to test their grain to ensure the toxin will not sicken animals and it has some grain processors searching for alternative sources of feed supplies. Indeed, vomitoxin is reportedly the reason a shipment of corn from Paraguay is headed for the U.S. next month.

Attaché expects soybean production in Paraguay to decline from this year’s record... Paraguay’s 2016-17 soybean crop will likely hit a record 10.2 MMT due to “elevated crop area and record yields -- supported by good weather throughout the season,” says a USDA ag attaché in the country. The post expects the country to export 6.250 MMT of that tally. Looking ahead to 2017-18, the attaché expects the crop to fall to 9.40 MMT with exports projected at 5.55 MMT.

Ukraine’s wheat crop off to a strong start... Ukraine’s agriculture minister estimates that around 6.2 million hectares have been planted to wheat this year and most of the crop is in good condition. Therefore, the official says that the 2017 wheat crop should top 24 MMT.

Trade could book some profits in cattle... Live cattle futures could see some profit-taking to start the week after the cattle complex posted sharp gains last week in response to higher cash action, plus placements were well above expectations in Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report. The number of cattle on feed and marketings did come in basically in line with expectations, however.

Bearish attitudes show little sign of waning in lean hogs... While lean hog futures are oversold, that does not guarantee much (if any) of a rebound over the near-term, as the cash hog market remains under pressure. The product market has also done little to enthuse traders about spring grilling demand. Summer futures contracts are signaling expectations for a more subdued seasonal rally from late spring to early summer. USDA’s Cold Storage Report will provide some insight as to demand strength this afternoon.

Weekend demand news... A group of private Israeli buyers issued international tender to buy up to 100,000 MT of corn, 45,000 MT of feed what and 30,000 MT of feed barley to be sourced from optional origins, according to European traders. Algeria bought a nominal 50,000 MT of durum wheat.

Today’s reports:

10:00 a.m., Weekly Export Inspections -- AMS
23:00 p.m., Cold Storage -- NASS
3:00 p.m., Crop Progress -- NASS

Harvey may not have dealt devastating blow to Texas ranchers

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:21:05 GMT

GLEN FLORA, Texas (AP) — As John Locke looked down from a helicopter at his roughly 200 cattle struggling with Harvey’s rising floodwaters, he saw about 20 becoming entangled in a barbed wire fence and feared the worst.

Bundled in a lifejacket, the 38-year-old rancher jumped in to try and help. But by the time he reached the Brahmans, a beef cow species that originated in India and is known for its distinctive hump, most had already freed themselves and headed for higher ground with the rest of the herd.

“I thought they were going to die, and they’re fine, which is kind of a theme for the whole thing,” Locke said.

The damage Harvey inflicted on Texas’ cattle industry hasn’t been calculated yet, but there’s evidence that it might be less than initially feared and perhaps not as costly as Hurricane Ike. That came ashore in 2008 as a weaker storm but with more salty storm surge that wiped out pastures for months. Even though Harvey unleashed catastrophic flooding on counties that are home to 1.2 million beef cattle, which is more than a fourth of the state’s herd, there were apparently only a few instances in which large groups of cows drowned.

To be sure, some ranchers were walloped by Harvey, including at least one family that lost hundreds of cattle in flooding that reached the rooftops of low-lying homes near Beaumont, said Bill Hyman, who heads the Independent Cattleman’s Association of Texas. And even surviving cattle can bring increased costs, as they can face longer-term health problems from standing in water for days, having gone long periods without eating and stress.

Hyman said he expects the association’s membership to fall by 5 percent because some affected ranchers, especially older ones, will leave the business.

But whatever damage Harvey did cause shouldn’t trigger a short-term rise in beef prices, said David Anderson, a Texas A&M University professor and agricultural economist. Texas is the nation’s top cattle producer, with cow and calf sales averaging $10.7 billion annually between 2011 and 2014. But there are 30 million beef cows in the U.S. and most of the Texas beef industry’s feed lots and packing plants are concentrated in parts of the state that escaped the storm.

“Individual ranchers are going to see huge financial effects,” Anderson said, including livestock killed; replacing destroyed homes, feed, fences and equipment; and purchasing medicines to protect cows from post-Harvey health problems. “But I don’t think we’re going to see much at all in the way of market impacts, changes in calf prices for other ranchers, or in the consumer beef prices.”

One sign that Harvey might not have been as bad on ranchers as had been feared is that there were, in the early weeks after Harvey, fewer than 10 applications to a federal program that provides aid for livestock carcass disposal, said assistant state conservationist Mark Habiger, who cautioned that it’s still too early to declare that a crisis was averted. Federal officials urged ranchers to burn cattle killed in the storm because the soil is so saturated that burying them could spread contamination.

When Ike hit Texas nine years ago, it cost the ranching industry at least an estimated $37 million, killing up to 5,000 cattle and decimating pastureland with saltwater storm surge. During Harvey, most of the flooding was freshwater that came from rains and rivers, meaning many ranches won’t have to deal with grasslands hurt by saltwater — though some closer to the Gulf Coast still might.

At Locke’s J.D. Hudgins Ranch in Glen Flora, a village with just one post office and an antique shop about 60 miles (96 kilometers) southwest of Houston, the cattle have returned to grazing in lush pastures that are greener than ever. Although Locke’s family lost three cows and a calf to Harvey and a few survivors seemed sluggish or walked with a limp as he herded them under a fence one recent day, Locke said it could have been much worse.

“We’re just happy they’re still here,” he said.

Copyright 2017 The Associated Press

First Thing Today: Market Gears Up for Higher Carryover Estimates

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 01:17:24 GMT

Choppy price action preceding USDA reports... Corn futures are fractionally lower amid some light profit-taking after yesterday’s rally. Soybeans are up 2 cents on some pre-report short-covering. While winter wheat futures are fractionally to 2 cents lower, the HRS wheat market is posting similar gains. The U.S. dollar index is down slightly while crude oil futures are near steady as of 6:30 a.m. CT.

Higher U.S. and world carryover stocks expected... USDA will update its supply and demand tables at 11:00 a.m. CT today. Traders anticipate modest increases to its domestic carryover estimates from March for corn, soybeans and wheat, which are expected to come in around 2.352 billion bu., 447 million bu. and 1.147 billion bu., respectively. Global carryover is also expected to climb for all three crops.

Global traders are focusing on geopolitical concerns... Asian equities were mostly lower on rising military tensions in the Korean Peninsula, as well as fears of a liquidity squeeze in Chinese markets — shares in Hong Kong-listed China Finance Investment, an agricultural an investment products trading firm, plunged as much as 85% in early trade before ending the morning session down 65%. European investors are reassessing the risks from the French election with a poll showing leftist candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon rising to third place ahead of Francois Fillon.

PF CCI shows reflects improvement in SRW and HRW wheat crops... When USDA’s winter wheat crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW wheat crop came in at 335.48 points, which was a jump of 6.69 points from week-ago. This was largely due to a 4.3-point gain in the No. 1 producing state of Kansas after recent rains. Our CCI showed the SRW wheat crop at 374.37 points, up 1.58 points from week-ago and near steady with year-ago. Get more details .

Forecast for timely rains prompts Cordonnier to raise Brazilian corn crop estimate... South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2 MMT to 90 MMT this week, explaining that he has been conservative with his corn crop estimate up to this point due to drier conditions in southern areas of the country, but that rain is forecast to hit these areas as the safrinha crop approaches early pollination. He left his soybean crop estimate unchanged at 109 MMT. He has a neutral to higher bias toward both estimates.

Consultant concerned that flooding could trim Argentine crops... While Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean and corn crop estimates unchanged at 56 MMT and 37 MMT, respectively, he has a neutral to lower bias going forward due to recent flooding and the chances for more. Soybean harvest was 5.9% complete last week versus 7.6% done last year at this point, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The exchange also reports that 15% of the corn crop had been harvested, down 3 points from the year prior.

Chinese ag ministry raises soybean and corn import forecasts... China’s ag ministry raised its 2016-17 soybean import forecast by 1.24 MMT to 86.55 MMT, as the country raised its soybean consumption peg. The ag ministry now expects China to run a soybean balance deficit of 1.89 MMT, versus its prior forecast for a deficit of 2.19 MMT. The ministry also raised its 2016-17 corn import estimate by 200,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. It expects corn ending stocks to total 5.11 MMT this marketing year, which is up 700,000 MT from its previous peg.

Australian wheat acreage expected to be near steady with year-ago... Australian farmers will likely plant 13.4 million hectares (33.1 million acres) to wheat in 2017-18, down just 1% from the 2016-17 season’s historically high sowings, says Profarmer Australia (not affiliated with our company). This comes despite benchmark prices that are near the lowest level in a decade and unfavorable forecasts. But while acreage is expected to be near in line with year-ago, production estimates are down notably. The country’s chief commodity forecaster last month projected a 2017-18 wheat crop of 23.98 MMT, down 32% from year-ago, as dry weather is expected to curb yields.

Cattle futures still well below cash... On Friday, cash cattle trade took place largely around $126, which is well above where futures started the week. That prompted some corrective buying Monday, and even after yesterday’s strong gains the front-month is still roughly $5 below the cash market. However, boxed beef movement was light to start the week on choppy price action and showlists are up a sharp 24,000 head from week-ago. This signals traders may not be overly aggressive in further efforts to narrow futures’ discount to the cash market.

Cash hog bids and pork movement remain weak... While the pork cutout value firmed 97 cents to start the week, movement was quite light at 222.10 loads. And cash hog prices slumped to start the week. Barring another day of strong spillover support from live cattle, buying interest is likely to be limited in lean hog futures.

Overnight demand news... Morocco bought 132,000 MT of soft wheat in the local market. Taiwan tendered to buy between 40,000 MT and 65,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., Argentina, Brazil or South Africa. South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group bought around 60,000 MT of soymeal likely to be sourced from South America. The country’s Feed Leaders’ Committee bought around 63,000 MT of feed wheat to be sourced optionally from worldwide origins. Japan tendered to buy a total of 126,405 MT of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in its regular tender.

Forecast

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

A Warming Trend Is On The Way For Early March

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

‘Moisture Opportunity’ Is On Its Way To The Plains

Summer 2024 Predicted to Bring on the Heat

For more on weather, read:

Punishing Drought Now Expected to Persist Through July Across Texas, Plains

Read More: Kansas Winter Wheat Crop Crippled by Drought that Covers 80% of the State

Hay Day: Wyoming Rancher Grooms Olympic Downhill

First Thing Today: Farmers Take Advantage of Planting Window

Harvey may not have dealt devastating blow to Texas ranchers

First Thing Today: Market Gears Up for Higher Carryover Estimates