Feedlot

CAB Insider: April 29

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 23:14:17 GMT

Fed cattle prices moderated slightly in last week’s trade with a $2/cwt. decline to average $246/cwt., just off the record high observed two weeks ago.

Last week’s 529,000 harvested total appears robust in a season when an erratic pattern of weekly head counts has bounced between 502,000 and 529,000 since mid-March. No doubt, worsening packer margins have been the overriding theme — intertwined with the temporary JBS Greeley, Colo., plant shutdown — through this time frame.

(Certified Angus Beef)

In reviewing total federally inspected harvest numbers, it’s important to factor in the normal seasonal decline in cull cow harvest during the spring. This year, the cull dairy cow harvest has declined from 60,000 head per week to 50,000 per week (-16%) from mid-February through early April. In the same period, cull beef cows have pulled back from 40,000 head to about 36,000 head (-10%) weekly. The confirmed year-to-date total cow harvest is down 4.6% compared to last year, whereas the fed steer and heifer total is down 8.8%.

The month of April closes out with a bang as live cattle futures set new record highs. With one day left on the contract, April live cattle traded at $256.35/cwt. by noon Wednesday. New highs will be recorded this week in the spot market as well, with Tuesday’s fed cattle business primarily conducted at $255/cwt., a $9/cwt. leap since Friday.

On the boxed beef side of the ledger, the market has recently eased lower in expected seasonal fashion from March through April. As the calendar turns to May, the smaller fed cattle harvest volume has turned a bit higher, driven by increasing end-user volume needs. Even so, market anticipation is that spot beef demand will get a boost from overall tighter supplies and continued consumer demand.

Beef Month Anticipation

May is “Beef Month,” and many in the supply chain are anxious to see what this important season has in store for cattle and beef values. So far in 2026, consumers have shown strong support for the most preferred protein in the market. Yet higher cutout values may test demand as higher gasoline prices and weakening consumer sentiment raise caution.

A look at wholesale prices indicates that demand for middle meat — steak — remains seasonally mixed, with CAB ribeyes recently priced at $11.80/lb., 14% cheaper than a year ago and 7% cheaper than a month ago. A strong weakening in the rib price trend in April is not uncommon, as three of the last five years saw a similar downtrend, while 2021 and 2025 featured a rapidly increasing rib market. A conservative estimate suggests wholesale ribeyes could rise above $14/lb. by June, adding nearly $40 of value per carcass.

Tenderloin demand typically increases modestly ahead of Mother’s Day, with just a 14% increase from February seasonal lows to early May. This year has featured a 4.5% softening of wholesale CAB tenderloin prices for the season since early March.

Strip loins are the classic “in demand” steak cut for spring, with a 26% price increase dating back to Jan. 1 through June over the past five years. This year’s price pattern is developing near expectations, with a recent 6% pullback from the March high. There is plenty of room for strip loin prices to increase 15% by late June.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Shifting focus to the lower-priced steak options shows strong recent demand for these cuts. CAB top sirloin butts had a massive price run in the first quarter, with a 22% increase into mid-March. This uncharacteristic early demand has since corrected lower, but historic sirloin price patterns suggest a potential 15% wholesale increase by mid-June.

The loin complex is currently boosted by chart-topping ball tips, priced at an amazing 50% increase over a year ago and a stout 44% higher than early February. This popular item for Cinco de Mayo typically gets a small seasonal increase ahead of the early May holiday. This year’s unexpectedly high demand suggests broader use of the cheaper cut, even as the current $6.67/lb. wholesale average nears its record high of $6.90/lb. touched briefly during the pandemic shutdowns. Also from the loin primal, CAB tri-tips are recently 31% pricier than a year ago, steadily higher within seasonal expectations. In keeping with other loin items, tri-tip prices are historically expected to increase by another 23% through June.

Briskets, flanks and plates combine to make up just 15.5% of total carcass weight. Unfortunate, given that these lighter primals are seeing some of the stoutest demand, marked by major price increases, of any beef cuts. The average price increase across the three is 38% over a year ago, while the total CAB cutout price is just 15% over a year ago.

Carcass cutout values show a promising setup with plenty of room to run higher over the next 60 days. Underpinned by ground beef prices, grilling demand should pull not only ribeye and strip loin prices higher, but also a handful of value steak items, which will likely gain attention as consumers budget their beef buying. Anticipated spot market demand growth will be important to keep processing margins moving in the right direction as fed cattle costs mark new record highs.

What is the Difference Between LRP and LGM Cattle Insurance?

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 18:10:24 GMT

With cash outlays for feeder cattle and replacement females at record highs, Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) and Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) have become essential tools for managing financial risk. Recent USDA updates have made these subsidized programs more accessible, now allowing producers to insure unborn calves and set price floors for multiple stages of production. According to Iowa State University’s Patrick Wall, these tools are designed to protect equity without limiting the upside of a strengthening market.

“Cash outlay for feeders, replacement heifer calves, yearlings, bred heifers and bred cows is certainly higher than ever in all sectors,” says Wall, ISU Extension and outreach beef specialist, in a recent Growing Beef Newsletter article. “No doubt, two important programs supporting the market are Livestock Risk Protection and Livestock Gross Margin. Recent updates have made these programs more attractive and less expensive to a much wider audience in the supply chain.”

Can You Insure Unborn Calves with LRP?

According to Wall, unborn calves can now be insured for a future sale date.

“This program can be utilized for both purchased bred females just arriving on farm as well as pregnant heifers and cows that have been part of the operation already,” he says. “The premium is subsidized by the government, much like traditional crop insurance.”

He shares these options:

If a producer has 100 cows to calve in April to May they can insure 95 unborn calves up to 599 lb. at weaning.
If a producer bought a group of bred heifers, they can insure their upcoming progeny to protect their initial investment.
“LRP does not insure the viability, health, weight or gavel price for any of those calves,” Wall explains. “You still have to manage them to the best of your ability. It does insure the futures price for feeder cattle will be at least what you insure it to be, on the date you specify. If the price actually goes up, there’s no penalty or premium increase; simply put those extra dollars in your pocket on sale day.”
If a producer wants to hold on to them post-weaning for another 90 days, they can insure them again for a future sale date.
If a producer wants to market some on-farm feed through the cattle by feeding them clear to finish, the producer can insure them a third time clear to market weight. “You’re setting the floor for the futures market,” he says. “The top side is still open should the market strengthen further during the feeding period.”

What is LGM?

“For the feedlot sector, margins matter,” Wall explains. “This program insures both the revenue side — fed cattle price — and the cost side — feeder cattle price and corn price — of a transaction, working in tandem.”

While the feed necessary to finish a given set of calves may already be purchased, its value can change. Likewise, futures markets on both fed and feeder cattle can be quite volatile.

“In some cases, all three segments of LGM can react negatively to each other,” Wall says. “This program insures that doesn’t happen for you, with a subsidized premium as well.”

Wall recently interviewed Tony Latcham of Stockguard Risk Management for the “Iowa Beef Collective” podcast . The episode summarizes both LRPs and LGMs and how to effectively use them, regardless of the size and scope of your operation.

The Packer’s Dream: How Beef-on-Dairy is Solving the $2 Billion Consistency Problem

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 14:41:08 GMT

When Brad Kooima of KKV Trading spoke to “AgriTalk” in late January, he described beef-on-dairy as the “gorilla in the room.” But it wasn’t just the volume that caught his attention; it was the control.

“For the first time, you got an integrator that has the ability to control that thing from its birthday and schedule it out 341 days later that we’re going to slaughter that thing,” Kooima said. “Once a dream that the packers chased.”

That dream is now a reality, according to data presented at this year’s High Plains Dairy Conference. For decades, the beef industry has struggled with the fragmented nature of the native cow-calf sector — thousands of small herds with different genetics, different calving seasons and massive variability at the rail.

Ending the War on Variability

Lauren Kimble, manager of ProfitSOURCE Supply Chains for Select Sires, Inc., highlighted the greatest strength of the beef-on-dairy movement is its ability to kill variability.

“I care deeply about consistency ... variability is the enemy,” said Sidney Abbot of OT Feedyard & Research Center, a sentiment echoed throughout the conference.

The data proves why. While the total U.S. fed cattle harvest is a mixed bag of quality, program-specific beef-on-dairy is hitting 40% Prime and 59% Choice. Because these calves are born on dairies that operate like clockwork, they offer the packer something the native beef industry rarely can: Year-round market supply and uniform carcasses.

The Factory Floor of Beef

In the Texas High Plains, where over 25% of the nation’s fed cattle are processed, the shift is undeniable. Data from Laphe LaRoe of Smith Cattle Company shows while native cattle inventories are plummeting, the beef-on-dairy line is climbing.

By 2026, the dairy barn has effectively become the factory floor for the beef industry. Because a dairy cow calves every day of the year, the integrator (the dairy producer) can provide a steady, predictable stream of high-quality protein to the packer every single week. There is no calf crop season. There is only a continuous, scheduled flow.

This isn’t just a marginal gain; it is a fundamental shift in the dairy business model that allows for this factory-like precision. Ken McCarty of McCarty Family Dairy in Kansas says the transition from Holstein bull calves to high-value beef-on-dairy crosses has rewritten their balance sheet. McCarty Family Farms was recognized as the 2025 Milk Business Leader in Technology Award winner for transforming their operation into a high-tech, 20,000-cow operation driven by innovation, data and bold decision-making.

“Bull calf sales went from something that you basically ignored in your budget to something that really today accounts for, depending on the month in the market, somewhere around 50% of our overall revenue,” McCarty says.

When half of a dairy’s revenue is tied to the beef side of the barn, the producer is no longer just a milk man — they are a high-stakes beef integrator with every incentive to meet the packer’s demand for perfection.

Systems Capture Value

As Troy Marshall of the American Angus Association notes: “Genetics create potential. Systems capture value.”

The system is the ability to track a calf from its specific beef-sire breeding date through a standardized calf-raising program, into a professional feedyard, and onto a rail where it hits Certified Angus Beef (CAB) specs with surgical precision.

By 2026, the industry isn’t just selling cattle; it’s selling predictability. For the packer, a beef-on-dairy calf isn’t a gamble — it’s a scheduled delivery of a high-marbling, consistent product that meets the consumer’s demand every time. The gorilla in the room isn’t just big; it’s incredibly disciplined.

Cattle on Feed: The Supply Squeeze Continues

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:20:51 GMT

The April USDA Cattle on Feed report confirms that the U.S. fed cattle supply remains historically tight, with March placements and marketings reaching their second-lowest levels since 1996. While the latest report landed almost exactly where analysts expected, Patrick Linnell of CattleFax says the underlying message hasn’t changed: fed cattle supplies are tight and likely to stay that way, as lower marketings, fewer Mexican feeder imports, drought timing and more heifers kept for breeding limit cattle available to place.

Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, was a guest on AgriTalk Friday afternoon with Michelle Rook .

Here are the key takeaways from the report:

On feed: 99.5% — Feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1. The inventory included 7.26 million steers and steer calves, down slightly from the previous year. This group accounted for 63% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, down 1% from 2025.
Placements: 96.7% — Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head. Net placements were 1.66 million head. Placements were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996.
Marketings: 94.5% — March marketings totaled 1.63 million head. Marketings were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996.

(USDA)

One point Linnell emphasizes is the on-feed number didn’t drop as sharply year over year as some might assume in a tight-supply environment. He explains this apparent disconnect is largely a function of cattle staying on feed longer and yards remaining relatively full.

Despite that technical nuance in the on-feed totals, Linnell stresses the takeaway for producers and the trade is straightforward: “So overall, the message is simply that supplies remain tight and fed cattle numbers should remain pretty tight here for the foreseeable future.”

(USDA)

“Placements were off close to 7% to 8% from year ago, which was what we and other groups had predominantly expected with the marketings below year ago levels,” Linnell says.

Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky livestock agriculture economist, summarizes the report includes some sizeable decreases from last year on placements and marketings, but very much in line with pre-report estimates.

“The decrease in heifers on feed is worth noting,” Burdine points out. “While 37.3% is still relatively high and just above the 20-year average, the numbers are slowly trending downward. It’s actually the smallest heifer percentage since 2018, but that is a little bit deceiving because we have been below 38% several times since then. I think this year is setting up such that beef cow slaughter will be the inventory driver. It is down 18% year-to-date, from a very low number last year.”

(USDA-NASS, Cattle Market Notes Weekly)

Burdine, in the recent “ Cattle Market Notes Weekly ” article, explains, “The bigger story of 2026 may be less about heifer retention and more about beef cow slaughter. After culling the herd very hard from 2021 to 2023, beef cow slaughter was sharply lower in 2024 and 2025.”

Through the first 14 weeks of 2026, beef cow slaughter has been running almost 18% lower than the same time last year.

(USDA-NASS, Cattle Market Notes Weekly)

“If that trend held for the balance of the year, the 2026 beef cow culling rate would be about 7%, when the culling rate has averaged over 9.8% the last 20 years,” Burdine summarizes. “Weather conditions are likely to impact both heifer retention and cow culling as we move through current year, but the current pace of cow slaughter may be the largest inventory driver as we move towards 2027.”

Considering regional and state-level placements, Linnell highlights Texas as the focal point of the decline. He ties much of that weakness directly to the lack of Mexican feeder cattle coming across the border.

“As you look at the regional on-feed numbers, Texas still composes the bulk of the decline compared to either year ago or a five year average, off 10,000 from year ago or down 268,000 head from a five year average,” he explains. “I think that really just does reflect that continued lack of the Mexican feeder cattle supply.”

At the same time, the story is not limited to Texas. Linnell notes that most regions and states are showing declines relative to historical levels, which fits the broader cattle cycle.

“You’re noting those declines from a five year average in pretty much all regions and states as well, which is really no surprise when you think about where we’re at from a cycle standpoint,” he adds.

(USDA)

He adds the softer marketing number was no surprise either, given how tight supplies have been and how slaughter has lagged.

“There’s no surprise with combination of just tight, tight supplies and the fact that, you know, we’ve had slaughter running well below year ago. The decline in marketing’s was no surprise whatsoever, either,” he says.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, agrees with Linnell and Burdine summarizing there is nothing really earth-shaking in the report.

“Placements and marketings were both down about as expected,” he says. “On-feed total down 0.5% year over year, continuing the slow decline. Monthly cattle on feed have been down 17 consecutive months. Feedlot throughput (turnover rate) has slowed more than cattle on-feed levels indicate with placements in the past year year down 8% and marketings down 6.7%.”

Peel stresses heifers on feed, April 1 was 37.3%, down slightly from one year ago and about at the long-term average. The level is consistent with inventory and slaughter data, indicating very low and slow levels of heifer retention.

Placements Outlook: Drought, Border and Heifer Retention

Looking ahead, Linnell expects placements to continue trending below year-ago levels, even as drought and timing issues could pull some cattle off grass earlier.

“We’ll continue to see placements as a pattern that are running below year ago levels,” he says.

He acknowledges that drought could force some early movement.

“Yes, you probably do see some drought movement, some cattle coming early, but I think we’ve already seen that on a year to date basis, as well as you think about that February number that was above year ago for placements,” he explains.

Linnell also reminds AgriTalk listeners that last year’s partial border reopening to Mexican feeder cattle during March through May affects how current placements stack up in year-over-year comparisons.

Another structural factor tightening the pipeline is increased heifer retention. More heifers are being held back for breeding, which reduces the pool of animals available to send to feedyards.

“Even despite these dry conditions, it still appears to us that there is an increase in heifer retention,” he summarizes. “And so with that going on, that’s more animals that you’re taking to supply to place, right?”

Bottom Line: Tight Supplies For the Foreseeable Future

Across his comments, Linnell consistently came back to one central theme: the Cattle on Feed report confirms a tight-supply environment that won’t resolve quickly. Even if the headline on-feed number doesn’t fall as much as some might expect, the underlying drivers — lower placements, constrained feeder flows from Mexico, increased heifer retention and extended days on feed — all point in the same direction.

In his view, that means fed cattle numbers will remain limited going forward, and the industry should plan around a tighter supply backdrop.

“Overall, the message is simply that supplies remain tight and fed cattle numbers should remain pretty tight here for the foreseeable future,” he summarizes.

Listen to the entire conversation between Linnell and Rook.

CAB Insider: April 15

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 12:24:23 GMT

The fed cattle market has been on an exceptionally bullish trend for the past two weeks. As if the wildly aggressive $10/cwt. price increase two weeks ago wasn’t enough, last week’s trade featured yet another $3/cwt. jump to the amazement of most market participants.

CME Live Cattle contract values led last week’s optimism, emboldening cattle feeders to hold a firmer asking price despite the major upswing the week prior. The week’s resulting $248.68/cwt. steer price was highlighted at the top end of the range with $252/cwt. quotes in the northern feeding region.

This week’s market promises to hold further strength as April Live Cattle contracts were valued at $252/cwt. Wednesday morning. Small cash trade volume had already been recorded at $248/cwt. live with additional $390/cwt. dressed on Tuesday.

The strong cattle market has run counter to wholesale boxed beef cutout values, as this week started on a lower-price trend, with Choice boxes down $10/cwt. on Urner Barry’s quote and $5/cwt. on USDA’s report.

(Certified Angus Beef)

The resumption of processing at JBS’ Greeley, Colo., plant last Tuesday held promise for those looking for a larger national fed cattle harvest for the week. Reality set in by week’s end as packers collectively pulled the federally inspected total head count lower to 512,000 head, down 4%, with a fed cattle total of 414,000 head, down 3%. Packer margins have raced backward from decently positive to roughly $200/head negative in the past few weeks.

Spring holidays are lined up in the near future, with increased seasonal volume set to keep the supply chain on edge, as fulfilling large retail volumes requires larger headcounts. Beef demand appears to remain healthy, and a mid-April downturn in cutout values is not uncommon. Last year’s Choice cutout ran up 18% from April 15 through the end of June. Cutout values are 12% to 15% higher than a year ago.

The Marbling Milestone: A Deep Dive into Carcass Grading

The nation’s carcass marbling achievement has never been richer, as USDA data reports the latest record-high USDA Prime share at 15.55% of fed cattle. Year to date, the Prime grade has recorded weekly values of 14% or higher. With USDA Choice giving incremental ground to the growing Prime category, the two grades combine to chart a record 88.1% for the first quarter. In contrast, USDA Select carcasses comprised a new record-low 8% of fed carcasses during March.

Historic highs in marbling outcomes logically suggest that the Certified Angus Beef brand would similarly capture record volumes of Angus-type carcasses, given the brand’s focus on quality and its Modest 00 (Premium Choice) or higher marbling requirement. The importance of marbling among the brand’s 10 carcass specifications can’t be overstated. Several million Angus-type carcasses (often more than 2 million annually) have been evaluated using detailed data since 2012, revealing that 82% to 95% of carcasses failing to meet brand requirements did so due to insufficient marbling. Consequently, the greatest opportunity for improvement or failure in CAB certification rates lies within the marbling specification.

However, in the midst of record-high nationwide marbling outcomes, the brand’s certification rate in March fell to 37% of eligible carcasses — less than impressive in contrast to 41.8% in March 2025. As confusing as this seems, current feedlot economics tell the rest of the story. Cheap corn, increased days on feed and temperate feeding weather combined to push average carcass weights to new heights in March. Twenty-pound leaps in year-over-year weight increases have been a hallmark of the past two years. But the trend since December has held weights to a higher plane than ever. This means that average steer carcasses in the 980-plus lb. range yield a record proportion surpassing the brand’s 1,100-lb. upper limit. Our 2025 annual data review indicated that, of the eligible carcasses failing to meet brand standards, 14.5% of the cause was due to carcasses exceeding 1,100 lb., a significant increase from 8.6% in 2024. It’s a safe bet that this carcass weight fallout rate was higher than 14.5% in the first quarter this year, given that steer weights have not dropped below 981 lb., year to date.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Longer feedlot stays have also generated a steady increase in external carcass fat in recent years. This was highlighted by the 2025 uptick to 9.8% of certification failures in the dataset exceeding the maximum allowable 1-inch backfat thickness. Fallout from excess backfat was basically unchanged, in the 7-8% range, from 2022 to 2024, but will likely be reported higher again in 2026 if first-quarter finished weights are any indication.

In March 2025, the brand adjusted the upper limit for ribeye area from 16 to 17 sq. inches. The move aligned with the evolving cattle supply and resulted in cutting the brand’s fallout rate due to oversized ribeyes in half in the 2025 analysis.

Feedlot economics continue to reward heavier weights, urging cattle feeders to add days as they try to offset the high cost of feeder cattle with a favorable cost of gain. This has yielded unprecedented Prime carcass percentages in grid payment summaries, while simultaneously pressuring CAB carcass acceptance in the last two months. Despite these recent challenges, marbling remains the driver in the brand’s ability to add value to a greater proportion of Angus-type cattle.

Tug of War in the Cattle Industry: Cow Size, Carcass Weights and Total System Efficiency

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:52:36 GMT

The beef industry is currently experiencing a tug of war between biological efficiency and market signals that reward heavier carcass weights.

Recent Oklahoma State University Rancher’s Thursday webinar sessions highlighted the growing tension in the beef industry between the market-driven feeding for heavier carcass weights, selection for increased growth and efficiency, and the economic realities of maintaining larger cows.

The Feedlot Perspective: Why Tonnage is King in 2026

Carcass weights are increasing largely because feedyards are keeping cattle on feed longer and marketing systems reward pounds of carcass weight. At the same time, cow size has increased, in turn raising maintenance requirements and forage demand.

Speakers also discussed the biological factors behind heavier carcasses. Growth in finishing cattle remains relatively linear even at heavier weights, and modern marketing systems favor carcass-based pricing.

There are market incentives that encourage feeding cattle to heavier endpoints, including low cattle numbers, relatively inexpensive feed and reduced discounts for heavyweight and yield grade 4 carcasses. These conditions can improve gross revenue at the feedlot but also increase days on feed and reduce feed efficiency.

The Hidden Cost of Growth: Maintenance Requirements and Production Risk

Bigger cows are not necessarily more efficient cows. Cow size is closely related to feed intake, so selecting for larger mature size without considering forage resources can reduce stocking flexibility and increase production risk, particularly during drought or periods of high feed costs. Matching cow type to the ranch environment remains one of the most important management decisions producers make.

Ultimately, long-term profitability of beef production depends on balancing genetics, nutrition and available resources across the entire production system. Producers who align cow size, stocking rate and marketing strategy with their forage base are better positioned to remain resilient in volatile markets and challenging weather conditions.

Efficiency should drive replacement and management decisions. The most profitable cow herds are those that fit their environment and optimize performance from pasture to packer.

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Breaking the $250 Barrier: Cattle Markets Charge to New All-Time Highs

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:13:24 GMT

Live cattle futures surpassed the historic $250 mark on Tuesday, driven by record-breaking $250 cash trades in the North and a 75-year low in U.S. cattle inventory . Despite geopolitical tensions and higher fuel costs, robust consumer demand and a lack of Mexican imports continue to push both fed and feeder cattle to all-time highs as the industry enters the peak spring grilling season.

After the correction off of record highs late last year — triggered by President Trump posting he wanted to lower beef prices — some market watchers were unsure the market would retest those levels. However, live cattle futures hit all-time highs on Tuesday, exceeding last October’s record prices, while feeder cattle made new contract highs.

Record Cash Driving Futures

The spot month (April) live cattle futures contract moved above the psychological $250 mark this week, hitting a new high of $253.60 on Tuesday, while June hit a contract high at $252. The futures were pushed by the recovery in the equity markets, but more importantly, they were chasing the fed cash trade. Last week’s 5-area weighted average steer price hit a record $248.38, up $3.42 from the previous week.

Brad Kooima, of Kooima Kooima Varilek, says although it was on light volume, the North led the cash trade with live sales hitting an eye-popping $250 for the first time ever.

“Some of us got $250 in the North to a regional packer. It wasn’t widespread at all. None of the majors ever bid it,” he explains. “The rest of the feedlots were more like $248, and so most everybody passed. Then there was a little bit of trade in Kansas Friday at $249. And then it was kind of unusual, but there was some trade in Texas on Saturday at $248.”

The previous cash record for the 5-area weighted steer was $246.91, scored the week of Feb. 23.

Higher Fed Cash Cattle Trade This Week

Even after these lofty levels, Kooima says he believes fed cash trade could keep climbing this week as tight supplies continue to support the market.

“The feedlot has still maintained leverage. So, I think there’s a shot we’ll be a little bit higher — let’s go $252,” he says. “I don’t know. Maybe that’s a little bit optimistic, but I’ll take my shot that we’re going to be a little bit better, but it won’t happen until late in the week.”

His optimism is based on beef packers buying very few cattle last week and with feedlots holding out for higher money due to tight breakevens.

“I still think we’re in a window of time here of 30 to 45 days where we are cleaning up the old-crop yearlings. You know there’s a few big cattle, but we don’t have the weight problem that we had three to four weeks ago as you’re going into the front end of these calves that aren’t hardly fat. I just don’t think that the feedlot’s going to have any urgency at all to sell as these cattle.”

Futures Continue to Make New Contract Highs

With higher cash trade, Kooima expects the futures to remain resilient, even in the face of the Iran War, higher gas prices and equity market corrections. Additionally, speculative “fund” traders have returned as aggressive buyers.

“There’s an end to that game. However, in the meanwhile, the holding action rally that we’re experiencing, I expect, is going to continue for a little while yet,” he adds.

The 14-Minute Metric: Why Consumers Aren’t Feeling “Sticker Shock”

Supply is only one-half of the equation, as the strength in consumer demand cannot be underestimated as the market enters the peak grilling season.

“It begins with buying for Mother’s Day,” Kooima explains. “So let’s hope that we’ve energized the Choice cutouts, that we see the middles, you know, the steak cuts lead us out of here.”

Kevin Good , vice president with CattleFax, says the rally the last couple of years has been driven by beef demand, which is at a 40-year high. He concludes there is no evidence of sticker shock.

“Even though we’re at a price point where we’re a little concerned we might have some consumer pushback,” he explains. “If we look at how many minutes it takes to buy a pound of beef and at 14 minutes it is back to the level we were at the last cycle peak in 2014 to 2015. So if we put that into perspective, the consumer is saying for that eating experience we’re still a bargain.”

Feeder Frenzy: The Impact of the 1.2 Million Head Border Gap

The feeder cattle futures also reached new contract highs on Tuesday with the May contract topping at $377.57 1/2. That market has also been pushed by the 75-year low in the cattle herd, plus the lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports has further tightened supplies.

The Southern border has been closed for the last year to prevent the introduction of New World screwworm (NWS), resulting in 1.2 million head fewer feeder cattle being placed in southern feedlots. The feeder cattle cash index is reflecting the tight inventory and the red-hot prices at auction barns across the country. The index was up $7.27 on Tuesday at $373.94.

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More Than Cowboys: Feedlot Immersion Event Showcases Diverse Career Paths

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:35:06 GMT

The modern feedlot is a sophisticated hub of technology, science and commerce. A recent feedlot immersion event hosted at Irsik & Doll’s Ingalls Feed Yard, Ingalls, Kan., brought together high school students from across the region to learn more how the cattle feeding sector relies on diverse expertise far beyond traditional pen riding.

More than 40 students from eight high schools attended the event on April 8. Organizers say their focus with the event is to strengthen the workforce pipeline while creating a new generation of informed beef advocates.

“Educational programs like this are very important for kids in high school and any age,” says attendee Braylee Kraisinger from Hugoton, Kan. “It helps us see more job opportunities that most people have never really thought about before. Programs like this are helping give kids a head start in understanding different industries and what it takes to succeed in them.”

She stresses there is so much more to a feedlot than cowboys and pen riders.

“There are hundreds of other jobs,” she says. “Everyone’s job at the feedlot is very important to make sure everything runs smoothly. Each job is connected in some way, and they all have to work together to be successful.”

(Rachel Waggie, KLA)

The Workforce Pipeline: Recruiting for a High-Tech Future

One of the main goals for the event is to highlight the jobs behind the scenes; everyone sees those jobs from the highway but getting as hands-on as possible with those careers in the back office and out of sight is the real purpose.

A major theme is career awareness: showing students that feedyards and allied businesses offer many different jobs, not just riding horses.

“Our initial goal was to have every station be a real experience of getting the students to do just a snippet of what that person does on a daily basis,” says Russell Plaschka, Kansas
Cooperative Council CEO and president. “As you know, you can see it, hear about it, but if they get to do the job it starts to stick and make an impression on career decisions.”

The event organizers developed a program to showcase the diverse career paths available in cattle feeding.

“Finding skilled employees is challenging, and I wanted to help strengthen the pipeline of quality talent for our industry,” says Trevor Cox, Zoetis strategic account manager. “Many young people don’t realize how many different kinds of careers are available in cattle feeding, so this event was a way to give back — by educating, inspiring and sparking interest in roles they might not have considered. Our goal was to showcase real, rewarding career paths and encourage the next generation to see themselves in this industry.”

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From Drones to Necropsies: Seven Stations of Complexity

Cox says students had a chance to see how feedyards aren’t just about cattle and cowboys — the industry thrives on diverse expertise, from technology and safety to nutrition, equipment and marketing.

Participants were divided into small groups and rotated through a series of stations around the feedyard exposing students to potential careers in cattle feeding and adjacent industries.

Highlights of the seven sessions include:

A feed mill tour focused on animal nutrition
An animal health and necropsy session facilitated by Zoetis’ Dr. Shawn Blood
Headcount’s demonstration of drone-based cattle counting
MWI’s session on its feed technology
KLA’s safety trailer where students learned about managing risk
Equipment showcases from Roto-Mix and Murphy Tractor
A cattle marketing discussion led by Irsik & Dolls’ David Ast and Daniel Berg

(Angie Stump Denton)

The Marketing Matrix: Understanding How Cattle are Valued

Attendee Kayden Holstein from Scott City, Kan., says, “The most interesting rotation to me was the marketing portion, because it provided a new perspective on how decisions are made and how cattle are valued within the industry.”

During the cattle marketing rotation lead by Ast and Berg, students got the chance to predict quality and yield grades as well as carcass value on a pen of finished steers.

(Angie Stump Denton)

Advocacy in Action: Creating Informed Beef Consumers

Brandon Depenbusch, Irsik & Doll vice president of the cattle division and one of the event organizers, summarizes, “While the primary goal is educationally focused — exposing high school students to feedyards and the related industries that support them — we also wanted to expose them to production agriculture practices so they become informed beef consumers and advocates.”

He notes they hope students can counter misinformation later in life and “speak intelligently” when others say negative or incorrect things about feedyards.

“Students were engaged and asked thoughtful questions throughout the event,” Cox explains.

(Rachel Waggie, KLA)

During a Q&A session following lunch Cox says students shared what they learned.

“Three key takeaways for me were getting to see the marketing side of the cattle industry, learning how feedyards are increasingly focused on finishing cattle and seeing how advanced technology has become within feedyard operations,” Holstein summarizes. “I was especially impressed by how efficient and well-managed the mill was.”

Kraisinger adds three fact about feedlots that stood out to her were:

Lots of technology is used in feedlots. Technology is used from tracking feed rations to flying drones.
Safety is key in a feedlot. The most common injuries are due to slips, trips and falls. It’s important to make sure you have a safety harness on whether you’re climbing a ladder or going into a silo.
Employees need to work together and make sure they always have someone aware of where they are or what they are doing.

Both Cox and Depenbusch confirm they plan to make it an annual event and rotate it around to different locations in the region.

“It’s a small investment of time and resources with a big payoff for building the workforce our industry will rely on for years to come,” Cox says.

Sponsors of the program were Irsik & Doll, Zoetis, HeadCount, MWI Animal Health, Roto-Mix, Ascendance Truck Centers, Murphy Tractor, KLA, Kansas Cooperative Council and Kansas State University Southwest Research-Extension Center.

The 1.1 Million Head Gap: Analyzing the Impact of the U.S.-Mexico Border Closure

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 03:01:13 GMT

For more than 35 years, Mexican cattle have been a critical component of the American beef supply chain.

The U.S.-Mexico border has been closed since July 9 . A temporary phased reopening that began July 7 with the Douglas, Ariz., port was short-lived with a case reported July 8, 370 miles from the border, which was 160 miles northward of the sterile fly dispersal grid at that time.

Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, says, “Prior to the border closing in November 2024, U.S. imports of Mexican cattle had averaged 1.18 million head annually in the previous decade (Figure 1) and 1.12 million head per year in the previous 35 years.”

(Oklahoma State University)

Mexican cattle imports equaled 3.4% of the total U.S. calf crop from 2015 to 2024 and 3.1% since 1990. The brief border opening in 2025 allowed about 230,000 head to cross, 0.7% of the 2025 calf crop.

(Oklahoma State University)

Figure 2 shows the average seasonal pattern of Mexican cattle imports from 2019 to 2023.

“The typical pattern is bimodal with peaks in March and again in November/December,” Peel says. “Calves carried over from the previous year are typically exported in the first half of the year with relatively few exported in the heat of the summer. New-crop calves start to be exported in the final months of the year, carrying over into the next year.”

(Oklahoma State University)

Figure 3 shows the distribution Mexican cattle imports by port in 2023, the last year with a fully open border. The largest port is Santa Teresa, N.M., which accounted for nearly 43% of cattle crossing.

Peel reports, along with the Columbus port, New Mexico accounted for more than 53% of total cattle imports. The ports at Nogales and Douglas in Arizona represented another 27.5% of cattle crossings. The six ports in Texas accounted for a total of 19.2% of total Mexican cattle imports. The largest Texas port is Presidio/Ojinaga with 7.7% of the total.

Potential Phased Reopening: How Much and How Fast Can Cattle Imports Recover?

Peel says rumors are currently swirling that the border could open soon , probably with the phased plan to open ports from west to east over time. He says, if the border would reopen, the recovery will not be very fast.

“It will take several weeks for border facilities to restaff and have USDA-APHIS personnel in place to inspect and clear paperwork for crossing cattle,” he stresses. “It takes time (and cost) for Mexican producers to prepare cattle and the paperwork needed for crossing. It’s not clear how aggressive Mexican producers will be initially until they have a sense of how stable the border situation might be.”

By the time cattle can begin crossing, it will be close to the heat of summer, which is likely to limit crossings. Peel predicts if cattle are allowed to cross relatively soon, numbers of cattle imports could begin to recover significantly by fall.

Exactly what that recovery looks like, and the numbers expected are uncertain.

“Mexico has continued to adapt since the border has been closed, utilizing previously exported cattle in domestic markets,” Peel explains. “Mexico has developed significant cattle feeding and packing infrastructure in the past 25 or so years. More infrastructure investment is underway.”

Read more about the potential border reopening:

Should Beef Producers Be Concerned About Potential Phased Reopening of U.S.-Mexico Border?

Mexico is the eighth largest beef-producing country and the seventh largest beef-consuming country. Mexico is the number 11 beef exporting country and beef exports have grown more than 10 times in the past 20 years.

“U.S. imports of Mexican cattle are part of an increasingly integrated cattle and beef trade relationship between Mexico and the U.S.,” Peel adds. “Mexican cattle imports have been important for many decades.”

(Oklahoma State University)

In the 1980s, Mexico became a significant beef export market for the U.S. and is currently the No. 3 beef export market. More recently, after 2010, Mexico has become a significant source of U.S. beef imports, currently the No. 4 source of beef imports, see Figure 4.

“Cattle and beef trade between the U.S. and Mexico are interrelated markets ,so the current disruption in cattle movement across the border may have a variety of impacts in the future,” Peel summarizes.

Your Next Read:

Tighter Supplies and Border Closures: A Snapshot of Today’s Cattle Feeding Industry

Keeping the Family Farm and Rural Community Alive with an Innovative Mindset

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 18:24:11 GMT

Innovation doesn’t always look flashy in agriculture. Sometimes it’s simply a willingness to try something new if it makes the operation stronger for the next generation. For one Indiana cattle family, that mindset has been the key to keeping both the cattle operation and its rural community moving forward.

“My grandpa’s grandpa stepped off the boat the day Abraham Lincoln was killed,” says Andrew Bredeweg. “Our farm started as more of a self-sustaining farm with a little of everything until my dad turned it more into a business.”

Today, the Bredeweg family has its hands in the cow-calf sector, feeding cattle, farming and managing a seasonal sale barn. At the heart of all they do is ensuring the business remains generational while also supporting the rural community around them.

“Everybody in agriculture pretty much has goals to pass it on to the next generation. It’ll be multigenerational,” Bredeweg says.

The Bredewegs have been able to keep the operation in the family for generations because they’ve maintained a mindset of innovation. That willingness to adapt didn’t start with Andrew. It goes back several generations.

“My grandpa was big into Harvestore systems in the ’60s — he was one of the first guys around here to put that system in,” shares Bredeweg. “That allowed him to feed a lot more cattle in a lot shorter time, which freed him up to farm more or run more cattle.”

That same thinking continues today. The family was among the first in its area to feed cattle using a TMR mixer with drive-along bunks. More recently, they’ve adopted digital recordkeeping through Performance Beef to better track feed, performance and costs.

“Just knowing everything is there and everything is correct is worth its weight in gold,” says Bredeweg. “Our performance on the cattle really showed when we started using it because what we thought we were doing wasn’t actually what we were doing.”

Having accurate numbers has also improved decision-making. Instead of guessing at cost of gain or performance, Bredeweg now has real-time data to guide purchases and management decisions.

Innovation on the Bredeweg operation isn’t just about technology, though. It’s also about strengthening the broader agricultural community.

Bredeweg also manages the local White River Valley Cattlemen’s Association sale barn, a cooperative marketing facility started decades ago by local producers. The sale barn hosts a handful of sales each year and provides an important marketing outlet for cattle producers in the region.

For Bredeweg, involvement in multiple segments of the cattle industry reinforces something he appreciates about the business.

“There’s a little more of a team aspect in the cattle business,” he explains. “For us to prosper, somebody else doesn’t have to lose.”

That mindset extends beyond cattle markets and into investing in the next generation. Bredeweg has partnered with a local high school internship program that allows juniors and seniors to leave school early and gain real-world work experience with area businesses.

Students spend part of their day learning hands-on skills and exploring potential careers while still in high school. Bredeweg has hosted several students on the ranch and sees the program as a valuable tool for keeping young people connected to rural communities.

“You’re developing them on the school side and then they get plugged right back into the business side,” he says.

For Bredeweg, keeping family operations alive requires more than just maintaining a profitable business. It requires investing in people and community as well.

“I’d rather ask how we grow and keep these young people busy instead of how we contract,” he says.

Because at the end of the day, innovation in agriculture isn’t just about improving efficiency — it’s about ensuring there are still families, ranches and communities thriving for generations to come.

Listen to the full conversation on the Casual Cattle Conversations podcast .

What are Feed Additives?

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 14:13:24 GMT

Feed additives are specialized ingredients mixed into cattle rations to improve average daily gain, enhance feed efficiency and prevent metabolic diseases like acidosis and bloat. Whether managing a cow-calf herd, stockers on pasture or a finishing operation in the feedlot, understanding the regulatory landscape is essential for legal compliance and animal performance.

“Responsible feed additive use is important. Store medicated feeds properly. Observe product expiration dates,” says Brandi Karisch, University of Mississippi associate Extension and research professor. “Use feed additives only for their intended purposes. Follow label directions and pay attention to label warnings.”

In an episode of “ Doc Talk ,” Dr. Dan Thomson discusses various common feed additives used in cattle management. He says these are ingredients mixed into rations to:

Improve feed efficiency — more gain from the same feed
Reduce disease and digestive problems — acidosis, bloat and coccidiosis
Support overall animal health and performance
Help manage behavior and reproduction, such as estrus suppression in heifers

There are two classes of feed additives — nonmedicated and medicated.

Nonmedicated Feed Additives

Nonmedicated feed additives include probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, phytogenics and many other compounds.

According to the Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) field guide , the following feed additives are available over the counter without a direct veterinary prescription — unless labeled for feeding in combination with a veterinary feed directive (VFD) medication such as ionophores, prebiotics, probiotics, fermentation products, enzymes and coccidiostats

Medicated Feed Additives

Medicated feed additives include antibiotics, antimicrobials, anticoccidials, antiparasitics, sulfonamidics, hormones, antibloat compounds and beta-agonists.

The federal veterinary feed directive stipulates medically important antibiotics are prohibited for use as growth promotants and cannot be fed without a veterinary prescription. The FDA requires a VFD for all feed-use antibiotics that could potentially impact human antibiotic resistance.

The BQA Manual (pages 116 to 119) explains the FDA regulations and the types of medicated feeds available. Page 118 has a table of approved feed additives including withdrawal and approved combinations.

What is a Veterinary Feed Directive?

If a cattle producer needs to use a VFD feed medication, they must obtain the VFD from the veterinarian with whom they have a veterinarian-client-patient relationship (VCPR).

The veterinarian must be licensed to practice in the state in which the cattle are located. The only FDA-approved VFD feed medications are those used for treatment or control of specific diseases. The longest duration any VFD can have is 180 days unless specifically limited by the label.

There are no FDA-approved VFD medications for treatment, control or prevention of foot rot or pinkeye.

All VFD records must be kept and be available for inspection for two years by the issuing VCPR veterinarian, the cattle producer and the feed mill distributing the VFD medication.

There are several FDA-approved feed medications that do not require a VFD. However, if used in feed at the same time as a VFD drug, that concurrent use must be authorized and approved on the VFD. Notable among these are ionophores and parasite control medications. Visit with your veterinarian for more detailed information.

What is a VCPR?

A valid VCPR is required for producers to use all prescription medications, extra-label use of nonprescription medications and all FDA feed medications that require a VFD.

Veterinarians are trained to evaluate individual and groups of animals within a herd system and provide integrative management plans to prevent diseases or problems from occurring in the future. Working with a herd veterinarian to develop operation-specific protocols can improve management, record keeping and provide employee training opportunities. An established VCPR allows the veterinarian to diagnose animals, prescribe medications and drug therapy to treat, control or prevent disease and issue certificates of veterinary inspection (CVIs) or health certificates.

Residue avoidance in meat and milk products is a team effort that starts with the VCPR. Written and signed VCPRs are recommended for record keeping. VCPRs should be renewed annually, based on state or federal guidelines. Producers are encouraged to schedule yearly consultations with their veterinarian to review current practices and to develop and set goals for the next year and consider areas for improvement.

What are Ionophers?

According to Karisch, ionophores are antimicrobial compounds that modify microbial fermentation in the rumen, allowing cattle to get more energy from the feed consumed. Ionophores inhibit or depress the growth of certain rumen microorganisms. This alters the rumen fermentation process in several ways.

“The benefits of including ionophores in beef cattle diets are well documented,” she says. “Ionophores generally improve feed efficiency from 5% to 10% and improve rate of gain by 2% to 7%.”

What are Buffers, Yeast Cultures and Bloat Prevention Aids?

Karisch says buffers can be added to beef cattle diets to reduce fluctuations in rumen pH. This helps reduce the incidence of acidosis when adapting cattle to high-grain diets or when feeding cattle concentrate feedstuffs such as wheat at high levels.

Yeast cultures may improve feed efficiency, gain and health in cattle.

“Yeast-based products affect dry-matter intake, rumen pH and nutrient digestibility,” she explains. “But some studies show no benefits from adding yeast cultures to beef cattle diets. Yeast cultures can be used in receiving diets of both low- and high-stress cattle.”

Poloxalene can be fed to help prevent bloat on legume and other lush pasture. It can be mixed with feed or offered in block form.

“For product effectiveness, cattle must consume adequate quantities of poloxalene,” Karisch says. “It is still important to use other bloat-prevention measures, such as filling cattle up on hay before turning them out onto lush pasture, to be safe when dealing with high bloat risk.”

What are Beta-agonists?

Beta-agonists are a class of growth‑promoting feed additives used late in the feeding period to improve growth rate, feed efficiency and carcass leanness in cattle.

In feedlots, they are used as nonnutritive feed additives near the end of the finishing period to:

Increase average daily gain
Improve feed conversion
Shift nutrients toward more muscle and less fat, improving carcass yield

Fly and Parasite Control

Oral larvicides are fed to cattle through a feed ration or mineral to kill fly larvae as they hatch in the manure.

Karisch stresses they are effective only when animals consume the proper amount of the active ingredient. Oral larvicides do not control migrating adult flies. Adult flies can still be a problem if a producer is using an oral larvicide but a neighbor is not practicing any fly control. Other common fly control feed additives are insect growth regulators that disrupt fly life cycles.

She says many anthelmintics or dewormers are available as feed additives.

“Anthelmintics are advantageous when handling animals is difficult,” she explains. “As with other feed additives, effectiveness of anthelmintics delivered through feed depends on cattle consuming adequate quantities of the product.”

Both Karisch and Thomson stress feed additives can be great tools to use alongside good nutrition and management to keep animals healthier and more efficient. They encourage producers to work with their veterinarian and develop a plan that fits their program.

CAB Insider: April 1

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:22:31 GMT

The fed cattle market has traded in a steady range around $235/cwt. live and $372/cwt. dressed in the past two weeks, roughly $10/cwt. lower than the late February high on a live basis.

The post-report adjustment to the harvested head count two weeks ago pulled that week’s total to a paltry 503,000 head. Last week’s recovery to 520,000 returned the harvested throughput to the lower end of the range seen in the previous four weeks, with an average of 524,000 head per week for the period.

The JBS Greeley, Colo., plant remains closed for the third week now due to labor stoppages at that facility. This, combined with the general tightening of packer throughput, continues to impede harvest volume.

Meanwhile, feedyard cattle inventory currentness appears to be slipping further as combined steer and heifer carcass weights marked a new record high in the latest USDA report for the week of March 8. Steer weights matched their previous high, recorded in December at 989 lb. each, while heifers surpassed their December heaviest weight by 3 lb. to reach 903 lb. apiece.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Weighted average carcass weights for steers and heifers calculate to 955 lb., 43 lb. heavier than the same week last year. The added weight-per-head on 420,000 head of weekly fed cattle harvested is equivalent to an additional 18,900 head. More astonishingly, the latest weights are 67 lb. heavier than those from two years ago, equivalent to an additional 29,500 head at the recent harvest pace.

Carcass cutout values adjusted slightly lower over the past two weeks following an exceptional first-quarter run-up, during which the USDA Comprehensive cutout value increased 12.7% since Jan. 1. The Comprehensive cutout, describing all grades for all delivery periods, reached $400/cwt. in mid-March, a tremendous 21% increase over the same week a year ago. A small correction is certainly understandable at the beginning of April, immediately before Good Friday and Easter holidays. However, packers do have some pricing power to leverage with their wholesale customers at these reduced harvest head counts.

Spring Cutout Confusion

Seasonal shifts historically bring the year’s highest-quality, marbling-rich carcasses to packing plants in March. This phenomenon is often attributed to the finished cattle supply in this period being denser with yearlings than with calf-fed cattle, compared to other seasons.

Specific to March 2026, the share of USDA Select carcasses in packers’ coolers was disproportionally small. The beef sector’s rapid advance toward a 15% USDA Prime grade average in March came at the expense of Select, which dipped to a record-low 7.9% of the offering. This stands in stark contrast to the 12% Select gradeout in March 2025. Meanwhile, the Choice category remained unchanged this March at 73% of the mix, just as it was a year ago.

Last week, the USDA reported the Choice cutout dipping to a $5/cwt. discount to Select. Inversions of the Choice-Select spread, while extremely uncommon, tend to occur in the first quarter, when carcass quality grades are near their annual peak and spot market demand for the grilling season has yet to hit full stride.

(Certified Angus Beef)

There are end-users in the market, such as the institutional sector, that maintain a standing order specifically for the USDA Select product. This price-driven customer capitalized on an average $15/cwt. discount to Choice in the past two years. The recent shift to much tighter Select carcass supplies has narrowed the price gap, even momentarily inverting the Choice-Select spread due to the scarcity of Select carcasses.

Current quality grade trends are subject to seasonal change, but the long-term outlook suggests that the combination of genetics and management will continue to yield higher-quality carcass outcomes. Beef wholesalers are advising their traditionally Select-focused customers to move up to low Choice, given the evolution of the grade mix to a higher plane.

Product labeled simply as USDA Choice has increasingly been defined by carcasses that fall within the lower 1/3 of the Choice grade. This is due to overwhelming demand for Premium Choice-branded products, such as the Certified Angus Beef brand. Consequently, what’s left in the USDA Choice box looks much nearer to the marbling found in USDA Select than ever before.

Seeing the Whole System: Holder’s Blueprint for the Future of Beef

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 18:32:01 GMT

When you ask Vaughn Holder where the beef industry should focus next, he doesn’t start with the latest feed additive or carbon credit scheme. Instead, Alltech’s global beef research director talks about systems — how methane ties into nitrogen, how trace minerals shape soil biology and pasture growth, and how all of it ultimately shows up in cow-calf margins and human nutrition.

Holder was the featured guest in “ The Future of Beef Show ” podcast, episode 19. He argues the era of chasing single numbers is over, and that the industry’s competitiveness now depends on understanding and managing the entire ecosystem that surrounds the cow.

Holder’s journey to Alltech started far from Kentucky. Originally from South Africa, he had the opportunity to intern at Alltech and he says he essentially never left. Like many in animal science, he originally thought he would become a veterinarian — until he walked through a vet school and realized he didn’t want to spend his life dealing only with sick animals. A course in rumen nutrition changed everything. Today, Holder is less a lab scientist and more a research architect.

From rumen microbiology and feed efficiency to soil health, nitrogen and consumer perception, this episode connects the science inside the cow to the broader ecosystem — and ultimately to the future of the beef industry.

Six key takeaways from the podcast include:

1. Beef’s Role in Sustainable Food Systems

Holder frames cattle as essential actors in circular, systems-based agriculture, not climate villains to be removed. He argues that focusing narrowly on methane without considering the whole system is misguided.

Holder explains Alltech’s documentary, “ World Without Cows ,” was triggered by a high-profile Super Bowl ad suggesting a future with no cows. Rather than producing a piece of industry propaganda, Alltech’s CEO and President Mark Lyons handed the project to journalists and gave them wide latitude. He asked them to find people through a wide range in the sciences and get both sides of the story.

“It really was an open and transparent documentary,” Holder summarizes, stressing the conclusion was clear. “The consensus from the story is really bad things will happen if we get rid of cows.”

He emphasizes that cattle are upcyclers of human-inedible biomass into nutrient-dense food.

2. Systems-Based, Not Siloed, Agriculture

Holder says Alltech intentionally avoids ultra-narrow specialization to keep a systems view of agriculture. He repeatedly stresses many industry debates are too siloed and miss soil–plant–animal–human linkages. He says the industry needs to judge interventions by their overall system efficiency and impact, not single metrics.

3. Future Research: Nitrogen, Rumen Function and Soil

Holder predicts the next major environmental pressure point will be nitrogen, more than methane.

“My guess is it’s probably going to be nitrogen on the ruminant side,” he says. “I think that’s actually a much more legitimate topic for us to be chasing than methane is.”

He notes ruminants have poor nitrogen efficiency, so improving this means fighting evolution. He also sees big potential in work that links trace minerals, soil biology, plant growth and animal performance.

4. Food Pyramid Changes and Human Nutrition

Holder sees animal protein as central to nutrient density and public health, and views the new pyramid as a “return to sanity” with long-run benefits. He strongly supports the shift in the food pyramid toward animal products and vegetables as the base.

He expects long‑term public health benefits from the updated dietary guidelines will reduce childhood obesity and diabetes, clarifying these reductions are going to take years to improve. He also stresses what gets pushed off the plate may matter most — the highly processed, highly stable, packed with additives.

5. Innovation, Startups and Extension

Alltech’s R&D is explicitly positioned as innovation, not just lab work.

“Our entire research department has now been rebranded as an innovation department,” he explains. “Our job is to be out there understanding what new things are coming around and how we can engage with them.”

They deliberately engage with startups and accelerators to stay close to bold, early-stage ideas. He is critical of research that never reaches producers.

“A frustration with a lot of cow-calf researchers is they do that work and they have no one to give it to,” he says. “If no one ever uses it, then what’s the point?”

Holder suggests extension and translation of science into practical language and actions are crucial.

6. Challenges at the Cow-Calf Level

Holder calls cow-calf production both critical and hard to reach. Measuring real‑world responses on farms is a major barrier. He stresses the measurement and adoption gap at the cow-calf level is one of the biggest bottlenecks to applying research and technology.

Overall, the message from Holder is the importance of:

Thinking in systems, not single variables.
Focusing on efficiency and nutrient density across the whole chain.
Treating cattle as integral to circular agriculture and human nutrition.
Ensuring science is translated, measurable and adoptable at the producer level.
Keeping the industry open to innovation and cross‑sector collaboration.

For him, that means one thing above all: never viewing any of those challenges in isolation.

Cattle Market Volatility: Is the Ride Just Getting Started?

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 16:16:03 GMT

Placements of cattle into feedlots continue to decline and beef production has reached historic lows. More slaughter reductions, albeit temporary, are in the works.

“Feeder and live cattle markets will likely return to rally mode in Q2 and Q3 while calf prices remain mostly rangebound,” predicts Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, in his Q2 2026 Outlook .

He summarizes beef and cattle prices have been trading at record levels.

“Choice boxed beef is up 15% this year through March versus the same period last year, and cattle prices are up 18% to 40%, depending on class,” he says. “The reductions in available slaughter capacity so far this year have shifted leverage to the packing segment and improved its margins. However, if the Iran War’s effect on consumer gas budgets persists, it could challenge beef spending.”

He reports packer margins have improved from deeply negative to breakeven or slight profits. Cattle feeding losses could turn into breakeven or profits in Q2.

Weaber summarizes the bumpy ride of cattle market volatility is just getting started. Weaber suggests producers consider these four strategies:

1. Plan Around Volatility, Not Just High Prices

Even though prices are at record highs, Weaber expects continued volatility and notes projected losses for many feeders in Q2 and Q3.

He suggests producers use conservative price assumptions in budgets; run stress tests on breakevens at lower fed and feeder prices. He encourages feeders to lock in margins when they’re available — hedging, LRP, options — not just when prices look “high.”

2. Tight Supplies Do Not Guarantee Profits

Cattle numbers and slaughter are down, but packer leverage has improved. He predicts cattle slaughter in Q2 2026 to run 4% to 6% below year-earlier levels.

The reduction in fed cattle slaughter capacity materialized with Tyson closing the Lexington, Neb., beef plant and taking its Amarillo, Texas, facility down to a single shift in January.

“As we expected, the shrinking number of shackles in plants didn’t immediately solve packers’ heavy losses,” Weaber says. “Fed cattle packer margins worsened from the second week of January through the third week of February as five-area fed steer prices rallied from $232/cwt. to $247/cwt. and Choice boxed beef cutout values were nearly flat. During the same period, fed steer and heifer slaughter dropped to a historically small average of 433,000 head per week, down 10% from a year earlier.”

(Terrain)

The packers’ slowing of slaughter has resulted in more surplus cattle, most notably in the northern feeding areas. While the increase isn’t particularly burdensome, it is enough to show up in heavier carcass weights (contrary to the seasonal trend) and a higher percentage of Choice and Prime grading carcasses.

Bargaining position has shifted to the packers’ favor.

He suggests producers need to sharpen cost control — feed, interest, yardage — and be selective on placements. He stresses don’t chase high-priced feeders without a clear risk‑management plan.

For cow‑calf producers and backgrounders, he says strong calf and feeder prices are supported, but avoid overexpansion or overpaying for replacements just because “numbers are tight.”

3. Watch the Consumer: Fuel Costs and Confidence Matter

Weaber flags Iran War’s effect on fuel costs and weaker consumer confidence in affordability as potential drags on demand, even while demand is still strong.

(Terrain)

“Consumer confidence is already getting a hit because of ongoing affordability concerns and declines in investment and retirement accounts,” Weaber says. “This combination has the potential to limit consumer spending on beef items at grocery stores and restaurants.”

He encourages producers to track domestic demand signals — retail features, food service traffic and wholesale beef moves — because a softening consumer could pressure cattle prices faster than supplies alone would suggest.

His suggestion to producers is: Be ready to pull the trigger on sales earlier if you see a combination of weaker beef movement and falling futures.

4. Use the Price Outlook to Time Marketing

Weaber’s forecast calls for:

Fed cattle around $250 to $255/cwt. in Q2, close to $260/cwt. in Q3.
Feeder cattle sideways, then rallying into Q3.
450‑lb. calves range‑bound but at very high levels into fall.

His message to producers is to align weaning, backgrounding and selling windows with predicted higher‑price periods when possible. He also suggests considering staggering sales — rather than one big shot — to spread risk across the Q2–Q3 volatility band.

In summary, Weaber says we’re in a record‑high, record‑tight cattle market, but that doesn’t mean an easy ride ahead. Shifting packer leverage, softer consumer confidence and outside shocks like higher fuel costs mean volatility in cattle prices is likely just getting started.

Grilling Season 2026: Will Record Beef Prices Cool Summer Demand?

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 12:44:38 GMT

The cattle industry is closely watching availability as we transition into the spring and summer months.

In a recent issue of “ In the Cattle Markets ,” Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Federation economist, discussed cattle availability and where market conditions could be headed as the industry moves into spring and eventually the summer grilling season when seasonal demand for beef typically peaks.

(American Farm Bureau)

As of March 1, 2026, the total number of cattle on feed is estimated at 11.55 million head. While this is up slightly from last month and down slightly from the same time period as last year, specific trends in placements and marketings suggest a shift in the supply chain:

Placements: 1.61 million head (up 4% from 2025).
Marketings: 1.52 million head (down 7% from 2025).
The Trend: Placements have outpaced marketings in five of the last six months, indicating a growing volume of cattle being prepared for the peak summer demand.

“While marketings have been consistently lower than last year, marking fewer numbers of fed cattle available, it’s important to note that placements have outpaced marketings of cattle in five of the last six months,” he says. “This means more cattle are being placed on feed than are being marketed for beef. This should lead to more cattle being available for beef production during the next several months when grilling demand ramps up.”

Beef Demand and the “Grilling Season” Surge

Memorial Day is considered the unofficial start of grilling season, which typically brings peak seasonal demand for beef. March and April usually bring peak demand for other proteins such as ham and lamb, while beef demand slows.

“This year, demand for beef has risen over the last several weeks, pulling prices higher at a much faster pace than in past years,” Nelson says. “Since January, the Choice beef cutout value has increased by $50.14/cwt. or 13%, from $349.97/cwt. on Jan. 2, 2026, to $400.11/cwt. on March 20, 2026. This is 25% higher than 2025 and has many analysts questioning if the strong demand from grilling season will pull beef prices even higher this summer.”

(American Farm Bureau)

Josh Maples, associate professor of agriculture economics at Mississippi State University, says in a recent “ Southern Ag Today ” article, “The Select cutout has also surged and is at levels only surpassed by May 2020. The gap between the Choice and Select cutout has been narrow during the first few months of 2026, indicating there has not been much of a premium for Choice cattle over Select.”

(Southern Ag Today, USDA-AMS)

He adds boxed beef values tend to build gradually through the first quarter before accelerating in the spring and reaching a seasonal peak ahead of summer grilling season.

“In 2026, the cutout has surged earlier in the year as cyclical market fundamentals are outweighing typical seasonality,” he explains. “Cattle supplies and beef supplies are tight. When supplies are tight, wholesale prices tend to respond quickly. Additionally, buyers may be pulling some purchases forward due to expectations of tight supplies and even higher prices later this spring.”

Increases in the rib and loin primal values since the start of the year are key contributors to the overall cutout value increase.

Maples explains in 2025, the Rib value ran up sharply from March to April, while the Loin value increased from March to June. This year, both primal values have been on a strong uptrend since mid-January.

“For producers, strong early-year boxed beef prices are supportive of fed cattle markets,” he summarizes. “Strong demand and tight supplies are supporting beef values in 2026.”

Economic Headwinds: Recession Risks

While cattle supplies are slow to rebuild, consumer demand can shift rapidly.

“Cattle supplies will take years to rebuild, but demand can change more quickly,” Nelson says. “Events such as a recession could be a threat to the strong demand that has supported beef prices over the last couple of years. Continued strong demand is key to maintaining a strong cattle market in the months to come. If demand begins to fall for any reason, especially during grilling season, beef prices will also begin to fall along with the cutout value. When the cutout falls, the packer has to buy cattle at a lower price, which leads to lower prices at the farm gate.”

As we move toward the summer months, the balance between tight cattle supplies and consumer willingness to pay record prices will define the profitability of the 2026 grilling season.

Your Next Reads:
What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?
High Cattle Prices Driven Not Just by Supply, but Strong Demand

Why Bigger Cows Aren't the Only Reason for Record Carcass Weights

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 15:20:23 GMT

Mature cow body weight has increased by an average of 7.7 lb. per year in the last 60 years. Recently, the industry has focused attention on the large increases in hot carcass weight (HCW) observed in 2024 and 2025; HCW increased by more than 20 lb. and 24 lb., respectively. Producers often assume that heavier carcasses are simply the result of larger cows, but the relationship between the two is more modest than many expect.

Hot carcass weight has increased at an average rate of about 4.8 lb. per year over time. The rate of increase differs slightly between sexes, with heifer carcass weights increasing about 0.8 lb. per year faster than steers (Figure 1).

(Oklahoma State)

While the recent increases in 2024 and 2025 appear dramatic, they are not unprecedented. Similar year-to-year jumps occurred in 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2012, 2015 and 2020, showing that periodic spikes in carcass weight are part of a longer-term pattern.

Looking at national data provides a similar perspective (Figure 2). The amount of carcass weight produced per 100 lb. of cow body weight has increased only gradually (0.12 lb. per year). In the early 1960s, cattle produced about 60 lb. of hot carcass weight for every 100 lb. of cow body weight. Today that figure averages around 69 lb. per 100 lb. of cow weight — an increase of only about 9 lb. over the past 66 years.

(Oklahoma State)

An analysis of a research cow herd in Arkansas reported that carcass weight increased by about 0.3 lb. for each lb. increase in cow body weight. In other words, larger cows do tend to produce calves that finish with heavier carcasses, but cow size alone explains only a portion of the overall increase. As cows get larger, the efficiency of HCW production per cow bodyweight decreases.

This indicates that improvements in carcass weight are not driven solely by larger cows. Other factors play major roles, including genetic selection for growth and carcass traits, the use of growth-promoting technologies, improved nutrition and feeding management, and economic incentives in the cattle market. For example, tight cattle supplies and relatively small discounts for heavier carcasses have encouraged feedlots to feed cattle longer, allowing more weight to be added before harvest.

Bigger cows are only part of the carcass weight story for the beef industry. Increasing cow size is a very inefficient way to increase total beef production.

Your Next Read:
Is There an Optimum Cow Size?

CAB Insider: March 18

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 12:07:16 GMT

Cash fed cattle values have been under pressure from several factors over the past two weeks. The Iranian conflict began overshadowing equity markets earlier this month, while that general market uncertainty spilled over to Live Cattle futures, negatively impacting cash values.

Just as importantly, continuation of smaller weekly cattle harvest volumes have given packers a measure of pricing power over feedyards for the period. Finally, the strike at the JBS-Greeley packing facility, initiated last week, is a headwind in the region as JBS redirects cattle to its other plants. These combined factors have seen prices retreat from $243/cwt. two weeks ago to last week’s $234/cwt. average. Despite this, Live Cattle futures posted gains Monday and Tuesday.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Carcass weights remain heavy, relenting just 8 lb. lower than the December record-high in the latest report. In the last five years, steer carcass weights have declined 16 lb. from the beginning of January through mid-March, on average. This year, steer weights have declined by only 4 lb. for the period. While 2026 fed cattle supplies are estimated to be the lowest in the cycle, it appears that the feedlot sector is, ironically, becoming less current on market-ready cattle inventory.

Carcass cutout values have followed the opposite trajectory to that of cattle, with last week’s sharp upticks adding punctuation to increases building in prior weeks. Beef demand continues to hold strong with the “All Fresh” retail beef price at a record $9.64/lb. in February. Price increases in March are in line with the seasonal trend, but the 30-cent-per-lb. rise from mid-February through last week is more pronounced than similar patterns in recent years. Undoubtedly, limited cattle harvest throughput and the onset of early spring beef demand have combined to spur the increase.

Quality Soaring Higher

The 2025 U.S. annual average share for Prime carcasses set a new high watermark at 11.9% of fed cattle. While not a formidable percentage compared to USDA Choice at 72% of the mix, growing supplies in the Prime category have been transformational for the beef industry. With Prime historically relegated to just 2-3% of total fed cattle supply, it began it’s rise in 2013 with incremental annual increases.

The contrast is starker by illustrating the change in Prime carcass tonnage over this short timeline. First, we must factor in carcass weights, which were 85 lb. heavier in 2025 than in 2012, the last year that Prime comprised a 3% or less share. The Prime production increase was not linear over this period, yet has made a convincing overall move, generating 263% increased carcass tonnage in 2025 compared to 2012.

As if this weren’t enough, the Prime category has soared at a renewed pace since last September. Beef stakeholders rightly assumed that the Prime grade would continue to perform, given the current weather and feeding sector economics. Yet, the pace of the increase has likely outpaced most guesses, as the Prime grade has not charted below 14% of the grade mix so far in 2026.

(Certified Angus Beef)

March tends to be the month with the richest marbling, as both CAB and Prime percentages peak at this time. The month started with a highlight well outside the trend, with USDA reporting that Nebraska packers averaged 24.3% Prime across their harvest in the first week of the month. The nearly 7% increase over the prior week is staggering enough to raise questions. However, with carcass weights remaining record-heavy for this time of year (32 lb. heavier than a year ago), one must embrace new possibilities.

Ultra-heavy carcasses and extended feeding days are a double-edged sword for the Certified Angus Beef brand. The richer marbling trend increases the share of eligible carcasses that meet the Modest 00 or higher requirement. Yet moderate slippage of carcasses above the 1,100 lb. maximum, plus a few with backfat above the 1-inch limit, are the most noted of the other specifications capping growth in brand acceptance rates currently.

Increased Prime carcass production is a boon to sales growth in this category for both Certified Angus Beef and the industry as a whole. A smaller Prime cutout premium above Choice also means greater adoption of this premium product tier by grocers and restaurants. All of the above lead to a firmer foothold for beef as the protein of choice for consumers.

Mystery Respiratory Virus in Texas Panhandle Feedlots Is Fake News

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 15:03:45 GMT

Tuesday morning, false information about a mystery respiratory virus in Texas Panhandle feedlots was circulating online. According to the Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC) and Texas Cattle Feeders Association (TCFA), these claims are false.

Dr. Bud Dinges, TAHC executive director and Texas state veterinarian, says, “Texas animal health officials have confirmed with Amarillo region staff and partners at USDA Animal Plant and Health Inspection, Texas A&M Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Laboratory and Texas Cattle Feeders Association that no reports of cattle with an ‘unknown’ respiratory virus in the Texas Panhandle have been received and no regulatory action is being taken at this time.”

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall addressed the rumors issuing a strongly worded release:

“Spreading unverified information like this is not only irresponsible, it is harmful to cattle producers, the beef supply chain and consumer confidence in a safe and wholesome product. Our industry depends on transparency, science-based animal health protocols, and strong collaboration with state and federal animal health authorities. We encourage everyone — producers, media and the public — to rely on credible sources and verified information. NCBA and state affiliate partners will continue working closely with animal health officials to monitor any legitimate concerns and ensure the continued health of the U.S. cattle herd.”

SenseHub Tags Are Game Changers in Feedlot Management

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 15:46:56 GMT

The SenseHub Feedlot system has transformed day-to-day management and production outcomes at Harper Feeders by streamlining health detection and care.

“It’s been a game changer,” says Catherine Harper, a fourth-generation feeder. “Just having that peace of mind, and especially with the labor situation. It just kind of takes that guesswork out of it.”

Started in 1977, Harper Feeders is a family-managed feedlot near Greeley, Colo. The lot’s capacity is about 65,000 sheep and 3,000 cattle. The cattle side began in 2006 to diversify the business, but the Harper family had to adapt as the airborne malignant catarrhal fever from the nearby sheep limited their ability to feed high-risk calves.

Through the years the family has invested heavily in efficiency — upgraded feed systems, handling facilities and data integration — while maintaining a strong focus on low-stress livestock handling and a close-knit, family-centered culture.

(Angie Stump Denton)

Harper explains they installed the SenseHub system in 2024 when they started feeding Kuro cattle — Wagyu × Jersey crosses — for the Meyer Natural program . They bring the Kuro calves in at 500 lb., feed them for 450 to 500 days to a finish weight of 1,400 lb. to 1,500 lb.

“That was what sparked our interest in the SenseHub deal,” she explains. “They’re going to be on feed for a longer period of time, and we wanted to protect ourselves.”

She summarizes SenseHub was a transformative tool for their feedlot, improving health monitoring and operational efficiency.

“It’s catching sickness two to three days sooner than the human eye,” Harper says. “It changed our death loss drastically. Our rates have been way down in comparison to what we’ve had previously.”

An illuminated, flashing ear tag makes it easy for pen riders to find and sort animals that need attention, without disrupting the rest of the pen.

(Merck)

From Startup to Large Scale Adoption

Austin Woltemath, Merck Animal Health beef monitoring sales, says SenseHub Feedlot originated as the brainchild of a startup called Quantified Ag. The system was conceptualized to address the practical needs of feedlot management by leveraging animal data for early disease detection and enhanced operational consistency.

He explains it took several years and multiple tag versions before landing on the just-right formula for scalability and usability in commercial feedlots. The final technology, now available commercially for approximately five years, focuses on continuous, data-driven monitoring of cattle through inner ear canal temperature and activity tracking.

While SenseHub Feedlot can help producers significantly reduce mortality and improve outcomes where it fits, it is not universally suited for all production scenarios, he explains. The system relies on trust in its behavior analysis and machine learning backbone — a predictive technology that leverages vast previous data sets to guide pulling recommendations.

“This enables a direct comparison of each animal’s current health metrics against both their own past performance and those of their pen mates over rolling one- to five-day windows,” he explains.

SenseHub Feedlot had matured into a robust operational tool, widely adopted from small 300-head lots to very large, several-thousand-head feedlots across the U.S. Woltemath emphasizes its particular importance during the first 60 to 100 days of the feeding process — the period of highest risk for animal health challenges.

During this critical window, the system’s daily pull list and integrated pen/animal tracking improve the speed and accuracy of identifying and pulling sick cattle for appropriate treatments, directly correlating to better animal welfare and producer profitability.

Implementing the System

The implementation process of SenseHub Feedlot is designed for flexibility and assurance. Interest typically originates from word-of-mouth recommendations or online resources, and Woltemath’s team conducts personalized meetings to clarify process details and suitability.

He says once a mutual fit is determined, a technical team is dispatched to install hardware and test tag coverage, while a customer success team provides hands-on training.

The Merck team provides ongoing support and troubleshooting.

(Angie Stump Denton)

Stop Sickness: Early, Easy Pulls

Harper says SenseHub alleviates staff workload, especially during peak periods on the sheep side.

“We get so focused on the sheep side,” she explains. “The SenseHub system helps alleviate having to send someone through the cattle pens every day. It just sends us a pull list every morning telling us exactly which lot, which animal, everything based on their tag.”

An illuminated, flashing ear tag makes it easy for pen riders to find and sort animals that need attention, without disrupting the rest of the pen.

Harper says the system integrates with their animal management software.

Woltemath points out built-in treatment protocols within the system.

“Veterinarians can tailor the pull and treatment intervals per animal, ensuring compliance with recommended intervention gaps and reducing the risk of over-pulling or unnecessary treatments,” he explains. “These parameters are customizable and shield animals from repeated inclusion on the pull list based on established guidelines.”

Question No. 1: Return on Investment

Woltemath says one of the persistent concerns among feedlot owners is the return on investment (ROI). He acknowledges quantifying ROI is complicated since every group of cattle is different, and some require more intensive health monitoring than others.

There’s a minimum tag order of 300. Pricing hovers around $15 per head, with exact costs determined by group size and hardware needs. Woltemath stresses this is an estimate, with certain equipment outlays harder to distill on a per-head basis.

The SenseHub system helps alleviate having to send someone through the cattle pens every day. It just sends us a pull list every morning telling the team at Harper Feeders exactly which lot, which animal, everything based on their tag.

(Angie Stump Denton)

Limitations and Opportunities for Improvement

Harper says the system does have a limitation related to long-term tracking and data visibility.

“After 180 days, that tag basically cuts in half in terms of the data it’s reporting,” she explains. “So, on these longer-fed animals, we’ll go for a while without a pull list, and it kind of gets alarming, like maybe your system is offline. That’s been the biggest challenge.”

The tags have a default one-year warranty, though heavy use of the identification light may reduce battery life. Most producers, Woltemath notes, can expect up to two years of reliable use if the light is used conservatively.

Woltemath says the daily pull list also includes tag issue reports and integrates warning alerts about failing or missing tags, empowering producers to address problems with minimal disruption.

Research-Proven Results

Clinical research at an Oklahoma feedyard shows through 60 days on feed and at closeout, the group of animals under the SenseHub Feedlot (SHF) system displayed a significant reduction in mortality and chronic disease compared to the pen-rider (PR) group.

These outcomes led to a significant decrease in cattle falling out of production due to a combination of mortality and chronic disease at either time point in the SHF group, thereby increasing total sellable pounds compared to the PR group. Additionally, the SHF system improved cattle monitoring efficiency compared to the PR group.

Harper summarizes the system is easy to use, adding: “SenseHub is a practical, proven solution that improves health outcomes, increases management efficiency and brings invaluable reassurance to busy feedlot operators.”

The Beef Industry Cannot Afford to Treat AI as a Side Project

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 13:42:45 GMT

The U.S. cattle industry is operating under intense pressure. Supplies are tight, feedlots face rising costs and declining placements, and the national herd remains near multi-decade lows after years of drought, liquidation, and high input prices . Recent reports point to shrinking cattle-on-feed inventories and increasing strain on large feeding operations as they compete for a smaller pool of animals . Yet domestic and export demand for beef remains strong, meaning each animal now carries more economic value than at any point in decades.

Artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape how producers manage that reality. Sensors, cameras and predictive software are moving from pilot projects into everyday use across cow-calf operations, stocker systems, feedlots and packers. Wearables can flag illness through changes in activity or temperature. Computer vision systems estimate weight gain and body condition without handling cattle. Feedlot analytics track intake patterns to identify problems before they appear in closeout data.

Similar pattern-recognition systems are already helping operations detect changes in cattle health, management, and economics earlier across the production cycle. These tools matter because they protect value. When herd size is constrained, losses from disease, poor feed efficiency, or reproductive failure become more expensive. AI allows earlier intervention, reducing both biological and financial risk.

Labor pressures reinforce the shift. Skilled workers are difficult to recruit and retain, particularly in rural areas. Remote monitoring allows managers to oversee cattle across large distances while focusing physical effort where it is most needed. This does not replace stockmanship, but it changes how time is used. However, technology alone does not improve performance. Operations gaining real advantage are not simply installing systems. They are rethinking how decisions are made, how information flows, and how risk is managed across the entire business.

From Data Collection to Decision Power

The beef supply chain is long and biologically complex. Decisions made at breeding or weaning influence outcomes months or years later. Feed costs, weather, forage conditions, genetics, health protocols and market signals interact continuously. AI is valuable in this environment because it can integrate diverse data streams and identify patterns humans might miss.

In cow-calf systems, predictive tools can support heifer selection, breeding management and pasture allocation. Stocker operations can match cattle to forage conditions and growth targets. Feedlots can optimize ration strategies, placement weights, and marketing timing. Packers increasingly use similar tools to forecast demand and coordinate procurement.

When information flows across these segments, the system becomes more responsive. Early signals about feed grain prices, export demand or weather conditions can influence decisions long before cattle reach the packing plant. Health issues detected in one stage can trigger preventive action in another.

Yet many operations accumulate data without changing behavior . Dashboards multiply, reports become more detailed, but daily practices remain largely unchanged. Without a clear plan, AI becomes an expensive reporting system rather than a performance driver.

Our recent white paper on AI in agri-food argues that meaningful impact occurs only when technology is embedded in strategy rather than applied piecemeal. One practical approach is the DRIVE framework, which focuses on five priorities for turning digital tools into operational advantage:

Data first. Reliable, integrated records across genetics, health, feed, performance and marketing are essential. Poor data quality limits predictive accuracy.
Run purposeful pilots. Focus on high-value problems such as reducing death loss, improving feed conversion, or optimizing marketing windows, with clear metrics and a path to scale.
Internal capability matters. Managers and staff must understand how systems work and when human judgment should override model outputs.
VIPs are not exempt. Owner and executive engagement signal that AI is central to strategy, not a technical experiment delegated to vendors.
Execute now. Advantage comes from implementation and learning over time, not waiting for perfect solutions.

Operations that follow this disciplined approach move from experimentation to measurable improvement much faster than those pursuing scattered projects.

Leadership Will Determine Who Wins

Technology tends to amplify existing management quality. Producers with clear goals and disciplined processes extract far more value from AI than those hoping technology will compensate for weak planning. The central challenge is leadership, not software. The transition resembles the arrival of major infrastructure such as high-speed rail. The biggest gains accrue to those who reorganize activities around the new capability. Others see only marginal benefits because they continue operating as before. AI increases the speed of analysis and coordination, but speed without direction can create confusion rather than progress.

I have described AI as agriculture’s “bullet train”: fast, transformative, but requiring careful navigation. AI may be overhyped today, but it is likely to become as essential to food production as electricity and the internet. The question is not whether it will arrive, but how prepared operations will be when it does.

For the beef industry, timing is critical. Herd rebuilding will be slow, capital costs are high and volatility remains constant. At the same time, global demand for high-quality protein continues to grow.

Producers who can improve efficiency, consistency and responsiveness will be better positioned to capture that demand. AI will not replace experience or judgment. Successful cattle production remains rooted in understanding animals, land and markets. What AI changes is how that expertise is applied. Routine monitoring may decline, while interpretation, planning and risk management become more central.

In the coming decade, the divide in the beef sector will not be between those who use AI and those who do not. It will be between those who treat it as a tool and those who treat it as part of a long-term operating plan. The technology is already spreading across the industry. Competitive advantage will depend less on access and more on intent. Producers who start building capability now will shape the future of the beef business rather than reacting to it.

Aidan Connolly, president, AgriTech Capital , is described by Forbes as ‘a food/feed/farm futurologist. He is the author of the book ‘The Future of Agriculture’, now in four languages, and a recent white paper on AI in Agri-Food systems.

Feedlot Cattle Health Summit Scheduled for April 7 and April 8

Sat, 28 Feb 2026 16:41:27 GMT

Production Animal Consultation (PAC) will host two beef industry summits, allowing people from the beef industry to gather and exchange ideas.

“ PAC’s Beef Summits offer a valuable opportunity for feedlot managers, caregivers, veterinarians and industry leaders to come together and learn new information about the issues shaping today’s beef industry,” says Dr. Corbin Stevens, PAC veterinarian and owner.

The PAC Beef Summits will be hosted April 7, 2026, at the Western Kansas Child Advocacy Center in Scott City, Kan., and April 8, 2026, at the Holiday Inn in Kearney, Neb. The event features an exciting line-up of speakers and topics:

An update on what’s new and upcoming at PAC
Bryant Hess, Appleton Steel, will present tips for individual animal care and hoof trimming to improve lameness outcomes.
Leadership expert Dr. Nels Lindberg, PAC, will provide strategies to successfully plan your business’ succession.
An entertaining keynote from Dr. Bo Brock, who owns and operates Brock Veterinary Clinic in Lamesa, Texas.

“We believe progress in the beef industry starts with people coming together to learn and to challenge one another. Our PAC Beef Summits are designed to create those connections and provide education that makes a difference on operations every day. The program brings in speakers who share timely and relevant insights to help prepare us for both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. By investing in people and knowledge today, we are helping shape a stronger future for the beef industry tomorrow,” says Dr. Taw Fredrickson, PAC veterinarian.

Production Animal Consultation veterinarians care for cattle from birth to harvest. In addition to providing veterinary health services, PAC conducts cattle research and data analysis, hosts educational opportunities on animal stewardship and facility design, and provides bilingual consultation for livestock producers both domestic and international. PAC veterinarians strive to provide industry leaders with opportunities to improve their operations through collaboration and science.

To register and learn more about the 2026 PAC Beef Summits, visit pacdvms.com/beefsummit

Tighter Supplies and Border Closures: A Snapshot of Today's Cattle Feeding Industry

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 17:44:47 GMT

The U.S. cattle feeding industry is experiencing a period of tighter supplies with the feedlot inventory on Feb. 1 reported at 11.5 million. Historically tight domestic supplies and a disrupted Mexican cattle supply chain continue to cause havoc for cattle feeders.

The recent announcement that Lubbock Feeders , a 50,000-head capacity yard in Texas, will cease operations highlights the growing pressure on the sector.
According to EverythingLubbock.com , the decision follows a series of economic and regulatory challenges that have significantly impacted operations.

The article reports typically between 60% and 70% of the yard’s cattle inventory originated from Mexico. With the U.S.-Mexico border closed due to the threat of New World screwworm , the feedlot has lost its critical supply chain.

The feedlot plans to finish feeding out its remaining cattle currently on-site before ceasing operations. According to the article, management hopes the property itself will remain in agricultural use, preserving at least part of its legacy.

“Unfortunately, it’s not really a surprise,” says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University livestock marketing specialist. “Tighter feeder supplies are squeezing feedlots more and more. Given that this feedlot depended so heavily on Mexican feeders, it really puts them in a bind. Also, they are located pretty close to the city of Lubbock, so I suspect they faced growing pressure and environmental concerns.”

By the Numbers: The February Cattle on Feed Report

The latest USDA Cattle on Feed (COF) report was released on Friday. Peel summarizes the report “was well anticipated and did not contain any surprises for the market.”

This marks the 15th consecutive month of declining total cattle on feed.

Here are some key takeaways from the COF report:

Total Inventory: 11.505 million head (down 1.8% year-over-year)
Placements: Down 4.7% year-over-year
Marketings: Down 13% (impacted heavily by January winter storms)

How is the Cattle Feeding Industry Structured?

Peel explains the industry is divided between a large number of small family-run lots and a small number of high-capacity commercial feedlots. The U.S. currently has 26,082 feedlots.

Small Feedlots (less than 1,000 head): Comprise 92% of all feedlots but account for only 12.9% of total marketings. Average marketings from small feedlots were less than 126 head for the year.
Large Feedlots (more than 1,000 head): Comprise 8% of feedlots (2,082) but account for 87.1% of marketings.
The “Big Players": Feedlots with a capacity of more than 50,000 head (82 feedlots) represent only 4% of the industry by count but market 41% of all fed cattle.

(Oklahoma State)

Figure 1 shows the size distribution of feedlots with more than 1,000 head capacity. It illustrates that 60% of more than 1,000-head feedlots have between 1,000 and 4,000 head of capacity.

(Oklahoma State)

Figure 2 shows that these feedlots only account for about 9% of marketings.

Utilization and 2026 Outlook

Total U.S. feedlot capacity is estimated at 17.1 million head, a figure that has remained relatively stable since 2018. However, utilization is dropping as the cattle cycle bottoms out.

Current Utilization: On Jan. 1, total feedlot inventory utilized 81% of capacity.
Large Lot Utilization: Feedlots with more than 1,000-head capacity utilized 67% of total capacity.

(Oklahoma State)

Figure 3 shows that the cattle feeding industry has grown relative to the overall size of the cattle industry.

The industry faces a tightening supply of feeder cattle. As 2026 begins, 16.1% of all U.S. cattle are in feedlots.

Estimated Feeder Supply: 24.5 million head.
Supply Gap: There are 1.77 head of feeder cattle available for every one head currently in a feedlot.

Peel says with a feedlot turnover rate of 1.99, the current supply of feeder cattle is insufficient to maintain current feedlot inventory levels.
“We may see more feedlot closures,” Peel summarizes, suggesting the industry may face further consolidation as feedlots compete for a dwindling pool of calves.

Your Next Read: Beef Cattle Supplies Fall to Lowest Level in 64 Years

Why Livestock Risk Protection is a Critical Consideration in 2026

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 14:16:49 GMT

While cattle prices remain historically high, the 2025 market proved volatility can quickly erode margins.

“Given that the cattle cycle is set for a slow rebuilding phase, there is a reasonable expectation that the market will remain supported for the next few years,” says James Mitchell, University of Arkansas agricultural economist in the Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “But as fall 2025 showed us, cattle markets are not immune to volatility.”

Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) and option premiums are not cheap because cattle prices are high, Mitchell explains.

“This reality has led some to question whether price risk management is worth it at today’s price levels,” he says.

Case Study: The Value of LRP in Fall 2025

To demonstrate the impact of price risk management, Mitchell shares this real-world scenario from Arkansas in late August 2025:

The Setup: A producer planned to sell 550 lb. steers in November

The Policy: Purchased LRP at a $394/cwt. coverage price (100% level)
The Cost: $12/cwt. premium
The Market Shift: By Nov. 24, the actual ending value dropped to $365/cwt.

The Result:

Indemnity Triggered: $29/cwt.
Net Return: $17/cwt. (after premium)
Per Head Value: $94/head added value
Total Per Load: ~$8,500 in protection

Without LRP, the cash price for a 550 lb. steer was $378/cwt. for the week ending Nov. 21. With LRP, the realized price rose to $395/cwt.

Fall 2025 was a reminder of how sensitive the cattle market is to news and surprises. A look at the November 2025 Feeder Cattle futures contract and weekly cash prices (see below) in Arkansas highlight just how quickly prices can move.

(Cattle Market Notes Weekly)

Mitchell admits the example in this article perfectly times the purchase of LRP with the fall 2025 downturn in cattle prices.

“Buying LRP earlier last year would not have triggered an indemnity because the market rallied leading up to the fall,” he says.

Why 2026 Price Risk is Different

While the cattle cycle suggests a slow rebuilding phase with supported prices, structural risks remain. Mitchell explains how the math of risk has shifted:

More Dollars at Risk: A $20/cwt. drop is the same percentage loss regardless of the market, but at today’s record prices, the total dollar loss per operation is significantly higher.
Limited Flexibility: With high interest rates and debt obligations from herd expansion, many producers cannot afford to absorb a $30/cwt. swing.
Volatility is the New Normal: Market shocks from policy changes, trade shifts or weather events happen faster than in previous cycles.

Takeaway for Producers

“LRP is not about increasing the odds of an indemnity payment or maximizing profit,” Mitchell says. “It establishes a price floor and reduces downside risk.”

LRP is not designed to beat the market or guarantee a profit every year. Its primary function is to establish a price floor. Using LRP to cover your breakeven point or secure a target return is a more sustainable strategy than attempting to time market peaks.

CAB Insider: Feb. 11

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 12:55:52 GMT

The fed cattle market has been steadily stronger since the first of the year, gaining $10/cwt. from the opening week’s $231/cwt. value through last week’s $241/cwt. average. This closely matches the early 2025 trend but has extended the pattern a week longer than that of a year ago with last week’s continuation higher.

The drastically smaller year-on-year cattle harvest is a significant factor differentiating 2025 and 2026. Since the beginning of the year, fed cattle harvest head counts have run roughly 10% smaller than a year ago. Tightened cattle supply and packer losses deeply in the red both continue to ration the harvest pace. Logic suggests no changes to throughput as long as both cattle and cutout prices work antagonistically against packer profitability.

(Certified Angus Beef)

A counterbalance to lighter harvest runs continues to rear its head in the form of heavy carcass weights. Latest data for the week of January 19 featured a 3 lb. uptick in steer weights to average 987 lb. each, just 2 lb. below the record marked in December. January weights will average near 30 lb. heavier than a year ago.

Weekly average cutout prices turned modestly lower in early February after the comprehensive cutout value increased 3.6% since the beginning of January. As demand turned to the ends of the carcass, significant discounting on middle meats was a theme last month. History suggests that the most preferred steak items have already posted seasonal low prices, with unseasonably warm weather in some regions coupled with expected early spring buying stimulating prices.

Utilization Key to Prime Success

Fed steer and heifer carcass quality is charting new territory in the first five weeks of the quarter. Record-heavy carcass weights, the longest feeding periods on record and generations of improved genetics continue to press carcass quality grades to new heights. This has generated an average 14.2% Prime carcasses in the fed cattle mix while Select carcasses average an unprecedented low at 9.7% of the total since January 1. This stands in stark contrast to the 10.7% Prime and 13.6% Select grade mix recorded for the same period a year ago.

As the carcass mix continues to press higher with richer quality grades, the expected impact to cutout prices has also come to fruition. The Prime cutout premium to Choice narrowed to $19/cwt. in January versus $59/cwt. a year ago and $37/cwt. in January 2024. This contrast indicates a wide range and directional change in the premium across three years.

However, the number of Prime carcasses in the past five weeks has been 21% greater than a year ago while carcass weights have also been 30 lb. heavier for the period.

(Certified Angus Beef)

Recent Prime demand models show 20% and greater year-over-year consumer demand increases for multiple months for the recent two years. Growing Prime supply has been met with growing demand, generally across the last decade. The recent added upswing in the Prime carcass supply suggests that expanded utilization of Prime-specific sales across the entire carcass is warranted. In the past couple of years packers have added a growing list of cuts to their sales sheets specific to their Prime-graded product. This is evident in Certified Angus Beef ^® brand sales as we have seen the most recent year’s sales growth in the CAB^® Prime category.

Further opportunity exists to capture consumer demand across the Prime carcass as evidenced by the most recent USDA carcass cutout value report. For the first week in February, USDA lists the Prime cutout premium to Choice at $16.94/cwt. for the entire carcass. Yet, practically all of the premium is found in the rib primal which features a $73.17/cwt. premium, and loin at $39.36/cwt. Briskets have often carried a larger premium than at present, but very adequate supplies have narrowed that premium to $3.13/cwt. While Prime premiums are increasingly being captured on some cuts on both ends of the carcass, chuck and round summary values show relatively small premium contributions, as do the flank and plate.

It’s important to note that more demand for individual Prime grade cuts is being discovered on the part of packers and wholesalers as they educate downstream users about the opportunities to capitalize on growing Prime demand. Emphasis on greater utilization of Prime and CAB Prime carcasses is key to recapturing larger Prime cutout premiums that get allocated throughout the supply chain. After all, the economic drivers fueling current carcass weights and extended feedlot stays may shift over time such that carcass quality takes a step back. Even if not, building demand through exceptional quality is the factor that has allowed beef to vastly outpace other protein options in the market.

Are Record Carcass Weights Pushing the Supply Chain to Its Limit?

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 16:59:34 GMT

Has the beef industry hit the tipping point when the unintended consequences of animal size outweigh the benefits? Industry leaders say rising carcass weights have boosted beef supply and efficiency, but they have also increased bruising, mobility issues, heat stress and economic risk.

Kevin Good, CattleFax vice president of market analysis, says carcass weights the last two years have gone up by 52 lb., with carcasses now averaging 975-990 lb.

“That’s an offset of 2 million head harvested,” he explains.

While the added weight has helped fill the supply gap due to the reduced cow herd and fewer cattle on feed, Jessica Lancaster, NCBA senior director of product quality and safety research, says these huge incremental shifts in carcass weight can certainly cause challenges.

Lancaster was a guest on “AgriTalk” Thursday, discussing carcass size research as well as foreign object research results.

Shown is the “Bigger Cattle, Bigger Decisions: Managing Health and Welfare as Cattle Size Increases” panel including: Lily Edwards-Calloway, Colorado State University associate professor of animal science; Scott Pohlman, Cargill director of beef supply chain sustainability; and AJ Tarpoff, Kansas State University Extension veterinarian.

(Angie Stump Denton)

Today’s Bigger Animals Are Testing Transport and Plant Limits

The Cattlemen’s College session “Bigger Cattle, Bigger Decisions: Managing Health and Welfare as Cattle Size Increases” featured industry experts Scott Pohlman, Cargill director of beef supply chain sustainability; Lily Edwards-Calloway, Colorado State University associate professor of animal science; and AJ Tarpoff, Kansas State University Extension veterinarian.

From longer days on feed to tougher transport and processing, the panelists discussed how a more efficient, heavier animal can strain welfare, infrastructure and profitability. They all agree proactive management and research are critical to dealing with the rising carcass weights.

Here are some key takeaways from their conversation:

1. Structural Shift: Fewer Cows, Bigger Cattle

Pohlman says the U.S. cow herd is at its lowest level since the Roosevelt administration.

Feedlots have compensated by adding days on feed and pushing carcass weights sharply higher — approaching 975-990 lb. — resulting in similar total beef supply with fewer animals but much larger individuals.

2. Efficiency Gains Are Real, and So Are the Risks

According to Tarpoff, the larger, heavier cattle and longer feeding periods have improved overall efficiency: more beef with fewer animals, less total feed and water per pound of beef. This has helped “backfill” lost production from the smaller cow herd.

However, longer time in the system means:

Higher probability of adverse outcomes.
Rising death loss and greater economic risk per head, because each animal is more valuable.

3. Welfare: Tipping Point Concerns Around Size

Welfare is framed around biological functioning: growth, health and reproduction, the ability to express normal behavior and the freedom from discomfort, fear and distress.

Edwards-Calloway says there is a particular concern for animals at the extremes of the size bell curve, whose welfare can be “pretty compromised.”

The industry must proactively address welfare challenges associated with larger cattle to maintain consumer trust. Edwards-Calloway says if consumers think the industry knew about a welfare problem and didn’t act, that’s seen as worse than making an honest mistake and fixing it.

4. Transport and Packing Plants: Systems Not Built for Today’s Cattle

Edwards-Calloway explains transporting from feedlot to packing plant is still one of the most stressful phases, even with best practices.

Research has often controlled for size rather than explicitly asking how large size affects outcomes. She says evidence suggests larger‑frame cattle have more traumatic events and bruising on certain trailer types.

Not all fed cattle are fit for transport; there’s a call for mobility scoring at loading, not just at the plant, she adds.

Pohlman says the frequency of bruising in the 2022 National Beef Quality Audit was the highest on record, with major/critical bruises increasing. He stresses the economic impact is significant at about $110 million from loin bruises alone.

He also says mobility scores at arrival have worsened.

Processing facilities built decades ago are struggling to accommodate today’s larger cattle. Plants are having to modify pen densities, single-file alleyways, restrainer sizes, intervention cabinets and even re-engineer rail systems to handle the increased weight and size of modern cattle carcasses.

5. Heat Stress, Dark Cutting and Seasonal Losses

Heat stress represents a more than $650 million annual loss to the industry, with heavy, near-slaughter cattle at highest risk. Larger animals have increased difficulty with thermoregulation, making heat-stress management increasingly critical as cattle weights continue to rise.

Tarpoff says summer heat correlates with higher dark‑cutting rates, causing additional carcass‑value loss.

6. Call to Action: Upgrade Infrastructure and Management for a ‘Different Animal’

Today’s cattle are heavier, bigger‑framed and take up more space per head than 10 to 20 years ago. Now is the time to reinvest in infrastructure: pens, water systems, shade and heat‑stress mitigation, transport equipment and plant modifications.

Tarpoff says the industry needs to be nimble enough to make individual outcome decisions because every animal is a bigger financial and reputational stake.

He encourages the industry to consider welfare investments — comfort, health, mobility and heat mitigation — as economic investments with real returns in performance and risk reduction.

Tarpoff stresses that now is the time to adapt systems to the realities of larger cattle so the industry can keep delivering high‑quality, efficient beef without eroding welfare or consumer trust.

2026 Beef Economics Starts With One Problem: There Are Not Enough Cattle

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 14:09:07 GMT

If you are trying to handicap 2026 beef economics, start here. The cattle cycle is still the cattle cycle. Biology does not care about your quarterly plan, your fixed costs or your “just run harder” pep talk.

USDA is already penciling in 2026 commercial beef production at 25.735 billion lb., down from 26 billion in 2025. That is not a cliff, but it is a smaller beef pile, and it is built on tighter fed cattle marketings that heavier weights only partially offset.

To be blunt, 2026 is a year where we keep selling through inventory faster than we can rebuild it. That supports cattle prices, but it also sets up a high-volatility year for anyone who has to keep a chain moving.

The Supply Baseline: Smaller, Tighter And Slower to Fix

Put 2026 in context with a few anchors:

2022 commercial beef production was about 28.3 billion lb., a recent high-water mark.
USDA’s current estimate for 2025 is 26.000 billion lb., down roughly 4% from 2024.
USDA’s current forecast for 2026 is 25.735 billion lb., down about 1% from 2025.

(Big Bad Beef Packer)

If you average 2021 through 2025 using USDA’s reported totals and the 2025 estimate, you land around 27.24 billion lb. That makes the current 2026 forecast roughly 5.5% below the recent five-year average.

That gap matters because it is not “a little tight.” It is tight enough that small shifts in weights, placements or slaughter can swing prices and margins quickly.

The Pipeline View: Feedlot Inventory Shows the Tightness

The cleanest “inventory in motion” lens is the Cattle on Feed report.

(The Big Bad Beef Packer)

On Jan. 1, 2026, cattle and calves on feed (1,000+ head lots) totaled 11.5 million head, down 3% from Jan. 1, 2025.

Inside that total:

Steers and steer calves: 7.02 million head, down 3% year over year, about 61% of total inventory.
Heifers and heifer calves: 4.44 million head, down 3% year over year, about 39% of total inventory.

Now the sell-through evidence. December flows:

December placements: 1.55 million head, 5% below December 2024.
December marketings: 1.77 million head, 2% above December 2024.

This is the simple math behind the point. The industry is moving cattle out at a pace that is not being fully replenished.

And this is where the reality check matters: one month does not make a trend. But in a tight cycle, it does not take many months of this pattern to turn the second half of the year into a procurement knife-fight.

Regional Callouts: Same Cycle, Different Pain Points

Even with a national lens, regional differences are where supply turns into logistics and logistics turns into dollars.

The Jan. 1 on-feed totals show the familiar concentration and the subtle shifts that matter:

Texas: 2.53 million head on feed, down year over year.
Kansas: 2.39 million head on feed, roughly steady year over year.
Nebraska: 2.62 million head on feed, up slightly year over year.

That is not just trivia. It changes freight, plant draw areas, procurement spreads and which regions feel tight first.

Heifer Retention: The Real “When Does it End” Question

Everyone wants a straight-line answer to when the herd rebuild shows up in volume.

Heifer retention is the throttle on expansion, and when heifers are still being used as a pressure valve, rebuilding takes longer. The Cattle on Feed inventory still shows heifers at roughly 39% of total on-feed inventory, and both steers and heifers are down year-over-year. That is not a screaming expansion signal.

Translation: 2026 is positioned as a tight supply year. If herd expansion is coming, it will show up in heifer retention — even lower cattle on feed numbers and higher prices.

Weights: The Lever That Makes 2026 Look Less Tight Than It Is

This is the part the market routinely underestimates.

USDA’s January outlook explicitly says the 2026 production forecast is supported by heavier expected carcass weights, which are expected to offset fewer fed cattle marketings.

And the most recent slaughter data shows why that assumption exists.

In December 2025, beef production was 2.298 billion lb., up 4% from the prior year, while cattle slaughter was 2.58 million head, up 2%. The average live weight was 1,463 lb., up 32 lb. year-over-year.

That is the weights story in plain English: even in a tight cattle environment, pounds can keep showing up longer than people expect.

But do not confuse “weights can help” with “weights fix it.” Weights are a cushion, not a parachute.

Cow Slaughter and Lean Supply: The Ground Beef Undercurrent

When cow slaughter stays elevated, you can temporarily add lean beef into the system. That can help ground beef availability near term, but it is usually a loud signal about the longer-term pipeline. I am not going deep here, but the point is simple: In a tight cycle, watch cow slaughter like a hawk because it can mask tightness today while worsening tightness tomorrow.

We will dive further into cow slaughter, lean trim and ground beef in the next part of this series.

Animal Health Risk: A Volatility Trigger That Behaves Like Supply

USDA APHIS is actively tracking New World screwworm ‘s status and response efforts, and CDC notes there are currently no cases in the U.S., while outbreaks in Mexico and Central America are a concern for livestock and monitoring.

Markets do not wait for confirmation. Headlines alone can move futures and basis, and trade or movement restrictions can function like a supply shock in the regions most exposed to those flows.

Many, myself included, believe it is a matter of when NWS hits the U.S., and not if it will. When it does, it will likely result in quarantines, trade restrictions and other impacts to the industry. Keep an eye on NWS.

Who Feels The Pain And When

Packers feel the most pain first. Tight cattle supply collides with fixed costs and the need to run consistent chain speeds. That is where margin gets ugly, fast.

Feedlots feel more pain later, especially late summer and fall. As the inventory pipeline thins and replacement economics stay expensive, the easy placements disappear and the market forces discipline.

2026 Domestic Supply Watchlist

What we will be watching on domestic supply:

Cattle on feed, especially placements of lighter cattle as the leading indicator for second-half fed supplies.
On-feed inventory and its composition (steers versus heifers and overall level).
Marketings’ pace relative to placements. Watch for multi-month patterns.
Carcass and live weights, the cushion that can hide tightness until it suddenly cannot.
Cow slaughter cadence, as the near-term lean supply valve and long-term pipeline tell.
Plant operating tells: Saturday kills, overtime, chain speed adjustments and procurement spreads in key regions.
Regional basis and freight tells, especially where on-feed inventory is shifting.
Screwworm headlines and official status updates, because this is a volatility trigger even when the base case is “no U.S. cases.”

Domestic Supply Conclusion: 2026 is a Rationing Year

If you only take one thing from this, remember 2026 is not the year the cattle cycle fixes itself. It is the year the industry learns how to ration a smaller supply base without blowing itself up.

Yes, weights can help. Yes, there will be months where production looks better than feared. But the system is still running with fewer cattle than it was built for, and that reality shows up first where fixed costs live. Packers feel it immediately because you cannot run a plant on hope. You run it on cattle.

So the domestic supply outlook for 2026 is straightforward: tighter availability supports cattle prices, but it also increases margin volatility, widens regional friction and raises the penalty for being wrong on procurement timing.

— Hyrum Egbert authors the biweekly “ The Big Bad Beef Packer ” newsletter, which takes a look at packinghouse truths, trends and tough questions.

A Lifetime as a Feedlot Cowboy: Rick Hibler’s Unwavering Dedication to Cattle Care

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 22:35:03 GMT

Having been around cattle all his life, Rick Hibler serves as assistant manager at Irsik & Doll Beefland Feedyard in Garden City, Kan.

Hibler was born and raised on his family’s ranch south of Garden City, where they raised 4-H calves.

“I have been around cattle all my life, and that’s what I wanted to do, was take care of them,” Hibler says. “When I was a kid, you were either a farmer, or you went to work in the feedyard — and I don’t like farming.”

With a career in the cattle feeding industry spanning since 1971, Hibler’s dedication was celebrated Feb. 4 when he received the 2026 Arturo Armendariz Distinguished Service Award. The award is presented annually during the Cattle Feeders Hall of Fame banquet. Named for a long-time, devoted employee of Poky Feeders, the award recognizes feedyard employees who go above and beyond to improve the cattle-feeding industry and the beef feeders provide to American families.

A Feedyard Cowboy

Hibler started working as a vet’s helper at Masters Feeders, now Cobalt Cattle Co., in Garden City as a pen rider for five years.

He then took a brief detour going to Kansas State University for a year for wrestling. Following his time in Manhattan, he moved to Wichita for about a year, building airplanes for Cessna.

The cattle industry was his true calling, so he moved back to southwest Kansas and went to work at several feedyards (Sublette Feeders, S Bar Feedyard, Gigot Feeders, Gotcha and Sagebrush Feedyard) before finding his home at Beefland.

He began working for Irsik & Doll in 1995 as a pen rider and has worked his way up to assistant manager in his 30 years there.

Today, Hibler explains his role is to make sure no sick calves are missed.

Adam Peterson, Beefland Feedyard general manager, says Hibler’s exceptional cattle care, consistency and work ethic are what truly distinguish him.

“He cares about the cattle,” Peterson stresses how Hibler makes sure the cattle are handled in the way that they ought to be. “I think that sets him apart, because of the time and effort he puts into and works at it each and every day. He keeps everybody on their task.”

When he isn’t at the yard, Hibler spends his time with his wife of 39 years, Gwen, their five children and stepchildren, and their 17 grandchildren. But even in his free time, his passion for the outdoors and cattle remains clear.

“I don’t like working inside. I don’t like driving tractor,” Hibler summarizes “I like riding horses and taking care of cattle. I like keeping cattle alive.”