Drought

Drought Stalls Expansion: 75% of U.S. Beef Cows in Dry Conditions

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 16:18:29 GMT

The formula for herd expansion may be simple — “grass plus profitability equals more cattle” — but the reality on the ground is anything but. CattleFax analyst Holden Ramey says nearly three‑quarters of the U.S. beef cow herd is currently in drought, sharply limiting the industry’s ability to rebuild numbers.

While profitability signals are strong, he says, dry pastures, high interest rates, costly inputs and market volatility are forcing many ranchers to delay or scale back heifer retention.

“We’re seeing some retention on a limited basis,” Ramey notes, “but it’s a slow, cautious rebuild, not a full‑throttle expansion.”

Ramey shared an outlook on the U.S. beef cattle cycle, herd dynamics, feed and grain markets, drought impacts, trade, demand and price expectations across the cattle and beef complex during the “Breakthrough Symposium: New World Screwworm Preparedness” on Friday in San Antonio, Texas.

His core message: supplies will stay historically tight, demand is exceptionally strong, expansion will be slow and cautious, and effective risk management is critical.

Here are seven key takeaways from Ramey’s presentation:

1. Slow, U‑Shaped Herd Rebuild – Tight Supplies for Years

Ramey predicts the beef cow herd is near its low for this cattle cycle, but the rebuild will be slow and cautious, not a sharp V‑recovery. Weather, high interest rates, input costs, aging producers and volatility are all dragging out expansion, even with strong prices.

He says calf and feeder supplies will stay tight, keeping markets in a higher trading range, even if the industry stops making new highs every year.

2. Drought Is the Biggest Brake on Expansion

About 75% of the U.S. beef cow herd is in drought, compared to a long‑term average near 20%. El Niño and a neutral pattern offer some relief ahead, but much of “cow country” is still in rough shape, limiting heifer retention and herd growth.

(CattleFax)

He predicts some producers who tried to hold heifers may be forced to “send them down the road” due to lack of feed.

3. Demand Is Exceptionally Strong Despite High Prices

He says since January 2020, the average price of ground beef has increased approximately 72% and retail beef is up approximately 61%, versus overall inflation up approximately 28%.

Ramey admits even with cheaper pork and poultry, there’s little evidence of major trade‑down away from beef — more trading down within beef (steaks to ground) than out of the category.

Higher grading — about 85% Choice and Prime, and approximately 20% Prime — plus the protein diet trends and GLP‑1‑driven nutrition advice have helped build durable beef demand.

4. Feed, Days on Feed and Carcass Weights Are Offsetting Fewer Head

Ramey says cheap corn supports longer feeding periods. On average, steers are averaging 190 to 200 days on feed. Simultaneously, average carcass weights increased 52 lb. in 2024 and 2025, which is equivalent to about 1.9 million head of added supply. Note: The long-term average of carcass weight increase historically has been 5 lb. per year.

(CattleFax)

He explains this means the rally is as much demand‑driven as supply‑driven — not the tightest tonnage ever, but prices are still very strong.

5. Trade Shifts: Mexico, Canada and Boxed Beef Flows

He says the screwworm ‑related closure of the Mexican border in 2025 slashed imports from approximately 1 million head to around 200,000, significantly tightening U.S. feeder supplies.

Even if the border reopens, Ramey does not expect a quick return to 1‑million‑head years due to health protocols and more feeding capacity in Mexico.

He also says exports are down and imports up, as tight U.S. supplies and high prices draw more product in and keep more domestic beef at home.

6. Leverage and Profitability Have Shifted Toward Producers

After the COVID/packing bottleneck era, the industry now has more slaughter capacity than cattle, so leverage has swung away from packers. Fed cattle’s share of the cutout has rebounded to around 59%, versus the low 40s during COVID.

He reports the total industry profitability is near $690 per head to be shared across sectors, with cow‑calf and stocker operators capturing a big share.

7. Price Outlook: High Plateau Now, Eventual Downside Later

For 2026, Ramey predicts fed steers will mostly be $240 to $250, potential spike to $250 to $255 in late spring/early summer, then softer into $230 to $235 in Q4.

Feeders and calves stay historically high but could see modest pullbacks later in the year, likely smaller than the average 12% seasonal break because supplies are so tight.

He says the CattleFax team expects slightly softer prices next year across cutout, fats, feeders and calves — but still elevated versus history.

Longer term, after this huge up‑cycle — up approximately 200% for calves — Ramey warns of roughly 25% downside risk across fed, feeder and calves sometime later in the 2020s or early 2030s, making risk management critical while times are good.

His message to producers was both optimistic and cautionary. Tight cattle numbers, exceptional beef demand and renewed leverage at the ranch and feedyard suggest that today’s strong prices are not a fleeting windfall, but part of a higher trading range that could persist for years.

At the same time, Ramey warns, drought, high costs, shifting trade flows and the inevitability of the next down‑cycle mean this phase of the market must be treated as an opportunity to shore up balance sheets, invest wisely and lock in margins where possible. The fundamentals may be on the cattle industry’s side, he stresses, but capturing the full benefit of this rare window will depend on how aggressively producers manage both production and price risk in the months ahead.

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:29:37 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Mid-March Heat Wave Shatters Records in the West — Is This a 2012-Style Setup?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:02:56 GMT

A powerful and persistent heat wave is sweeping across the western United States, shattering temperature records and fueling growing concern among farmers and ranchers about what it could signal for the months ahead.

From the deserts of the Southwest to the inland Northwest, the scope and intensity of this early-season heat event is turning heads. More than 60 daily record highs have already been set, with temperatures reaching levels far more typical of late spring or even midsummer.

Forecast high temperatures today through Monday. Tomorrow still appears to be the worst of it, before a "cold front" enters the picture...#desertfarmers #cowx #wywx #kswx #newx #okwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/vQ3NXruOrG
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 20, 2026

In Palm Springs, the mercury surged to a scorching 103°F. Phoenix hit its first 100°F day of the year — marking the earliest occurrence on record and breaking a longstanding record set in 1988. Meanwhile, Boise climbed to 80°F, the earliest date that threshold has been reached since record keeping began in 1875, and only the second time it has ever happened during winter.

For producers already navigating tight margins and dry pasture conditions, the question is immediate and pressing: With the current drought picture and early extreme heat, is this a similar setup to 2012?

A Stubborn Pattern Takes Hold

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the current heat wave is being driven by a dominant atmospheric feature that is effectively locking in warmth and shutting out precipitation.

“Well, the good thing about this time of year is that with the seasonal change that takes place, we usually see some weather variability take place along the way, instead of just getting locked into these things for just weeks on end,” Bledsoe explains. “And I think that’s an important thing to consider here. First of all, that I’m much happier that this is occurring now, if it has to occur — versus, say, in July or August, because we’ll see this thing break down eventually.”

The high heat in the West is forecast to stick around until at least early April.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

He says the current setup isn’t brief in the short term, with the forecast map showing the high heat sticking around through at least early April.

“If we look at our forecast temperature anomalies right through April 1, you see that big orange and red blob over the West and the Southwest. And for that matter, across a large part of the country. This ridge is not just going to impact the West. I’s going to spread its way eastward,” Bledsoe explains.

That expansion of warmth could bring above-normal temperatures to regions that have not yet experienced much seasonal heat.

“It’s going to bring a substantial amount of warmth to some areas of the country that haven’t been necessarily all that warm,” Bledsoe says. “So we’re locked in this at least through the end of March.”

Heat and Dryness Go Hand in Hand

The same high-pressure ridge driving the heat is also suppressing precipitation — a combination that is particularly concerning for agriculture.

“Precipitation anomaly-wise, that’s also going to be kind of owing to what this ridge is about, which is just kind of blocking any big storms from coming in from the Pacific,” Bledsoe says. “So, wherever you’re seeing the brown, that is likely where we’re going to see drier-than-average conditions through the same time.”

Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Why that’s so concerning is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, which shows 41% of the nation’s corn production area is already in drought . For cotton, 89% is facing dry conditions. For cattle country, 54% of the current cattle inventory is experiencing drought.

This week’s drought picture reflects a sharp split across the country. While areas of the upper Midwest and East saw rain and snow, much of the Southwest, central and southern Plains, and parts of the western U.S. experienced a dry, warm and windy week, which worsened conditions.

Drought and abnormal dryness expanded or intensified across areas like South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and parts of Oregon that missed out on meaningful moisture. Overall, while some regions saw clear improvements, the lack of precipitation and ongoing moisture deficits continue to drive worsening conditions across a broad swath of the western and central U.S.

That lack of moisture, combined with unseasonable warmth, could accelerate soil moisture depletion and stress rangeland and early-planted crops. Still, Bledsoe emphasizes the calendar offers some reassurance.

“There is some potential for this to break down, though, I think, as we get into April,” he said. “And I think, as I mentioned, that is a very important thing to consider.”

Ocean Temperatures Play a Major Role

Beyond the immediate atmospheric setup, Bledsoe points to broader oceanic influences that are helping fuel the current pattern, but more particularly what’s happening in the eastern Pacific.

“The other element of this is what’s driving this in terms of heat right now, and it has a lot to do with the sea surface temperature anomalies situated off the west and southwest coast of the United States,” he says.

“If you look at those sea surface temperature anomalies there off the Baja, that is a lot warmer than average than we should be. And if you go just to the south of there, that’s the western tip of South America, and that’s where our budding El Niño event is taking place,” Bledsoe adds.

Sea surface temperatures tell the story for what summer could bring.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Those warmer waters are part of a larger pattern known as the Pacific Meridional Mode (PDO), which can have significant impacts on U.S. weather.

“There’s a lot of warmer-than-average water that’s right there in the East and the Northeast Pacific Ocean,” Bledsoe says. “And any time you see this signature right there, especially off the southwest coast of California, the Baja, western New Mexico — that is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

He says the current setup bears some resemblance to patterns seen in recent years, including 2023, when a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño coincided with widespread heat.

“One important reference that I want to kind of draw a comparison to here is the last time we had a really positive Pacific Meridional Mode,” Bledsoe says. “This is what happened in July and August of 2023. And remember, I’ve talked about this before, but 2023 was the last that we went from a La Niña to an El Niño in a pretty quick fashion. And we also had that positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode.”

The result then was widespread warmth across the West and into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast. However, precipitation outcomes were more mixed.

“You might say, well, did that necessarily reflect a dry summer too? Were the precipitation anomalies dry for that? For some areas, but not everybody,” Bledsoe says. “And I’m not saying that 2023 is exactly what this upcoming year is going to be. I’m just trying to draw some parallels here from where we might see some of these things take place.”

Not the Same As 2012

Bledsoe says the current weather pattern bears watching, but it’s important not to confuse it with the historic 2012 drought. One of the biggest differences is the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic setup. In 2012, the U.S. was working from a weak La Niña base, and a persistent ridge of high pressure locked in over the central Corn Belt, cutting off moisture and allowing heat to intensify week after week. That kind of feedback loop is what turned a hot pattern into a historic drought.

Have talked about this more than once lately, but here is a look at the Ensemble Oceanic Niño Indices (courtesy of @webberweather) from 2010 through 2023. The ENS ONI for 2012 was negative early and slightly positive late. However, here is the sea surface temperature anomaly… pic.twitter.com/Q8PDo9XEhn
— Brian Bledsoe 🐊 (@BrianBledsoe) March 14, 2026

This year, the setup is fundamentally different.

“You can’t, from a sea surface temperature standpoint,” he says. “I’ve talked a lot about this on X. That same area of the ocean that I was just showing you just a little bit ago was a lot colder than average than where we are right now,” Bledsoe says. “So, there are different forces at work. When you get cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off the west coast of North America, extended from the Baja all the way up to the Gulf of Alaska, a lot of times that is a very strong heat and drought signal for the center part of the country. And right now, that is the complete opposite.”

NOAA

(NOAA )

The transition into El Niño conditions tends to favor a more active storm track and can help keep systems moving across the country, rather than allowing a dominant, stationary ridge to take hold. Bledsoe points out while heat will still develop, especially in parts of the South and West, the overall pattern does not show the same prolonged, stagnant heat dome that defined 2012.

The current soil moisture levels and early-season precipitation are generally more favorable than they were heading into the 2012 growing season. Back then, much of the Corn Belt was already running dry before the worst of the summer heat even arrived, which allowed drought conditions to escalate rapidly. Today’s environment, while not without risk, starts from a less vulnerable position.

NOAA

(NOAA)

That said, Bledsoe cautions there are still areas to watch. While the central U.S. doesn’t appear poised for a 2012-style widespread drought, there are signals pointing toward heat and dryness across parts of Texas, the southern Plains and areas along the Gulf Coast. He notes a scenario where spring moisture gives way to drier summer conditions that could set the stage for localized flash drought concerns by mid-to-late summer.

Overall, Bledsoe says the takeaway is that while 2012 remains a benchmark for extreme heat and drought, the current setup does not mirror the same atmospheric drivers. The pattern this year appears more dynamic, with regional risks rather than a single, dominant, all-encompassing drought signal across the heart of the country.

A Critical Window Ahead

For now, the early-season timing of this heat wave may ultimately limit its long-term damage, but it does not eliminate risk.

“We obviously have to prepare for it,” Bledsoe says. “But the good thing about something occurring right now is that it’s transient. It will get out of here.”

He adds: “And I’m sure we’re going to see something that is probably more akin to that spring change soon.”

Until then, producers across the West, and increasingly across the central U.S., will be watching forecasts closely, balancing cautious optimism with the reality that the 2026 growing season is already off to an unusually hot start.

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:28 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:58:41 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

Why the Southern Plains Became a ‘Perfect Recipe’ for Wildfires

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 21:29:09 GMT

Farmers and ranchers across the Plains are dealing with the aftermath of devastating wildfires .

According to Drovers , fast-moving Ranger Road Fire has already scorched more than 283,000 acres in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas since last week. The Oklahoma Department of Agriculture said Monday it’s now 65% contained, but the devastation has charred thousands of pasture and farmland, also killing an unknown number of cattle.

Flames spread across Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico since last week. While March through April is typically wildfire season in Kansas, conditions across the Plains are creating conditions that are fueling the flames.

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the devastation is the result of a “worst-case scenario” pattern that has been building for months.

A Windy Season Meets Dry Fuels

Bledsoe says in order to understand why conditions are so ripe for wildfires this year, the calendar alone raises red flags.

“From February through early to mid-April, that’s traditionally when we see some of these higher-end wind events,” he explains. “But it’s not just about the wind. It’s about what the wind and fire combine to burn.”

The Southern Plains experienced adequate to above-average moisture over parts of the region during the past year. However, that broader window masks a sharp turn toward dryness in recent months.

When looking at the last 180 days, moisture held on in portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas. But conditions deteriorated quickly moving south into the Texas Panhandle. Over the past 90 days, dryness expanded northward into the heart of the wildfire zone.

90-day precip map for the Plains

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Zooming in further, the last 30 days tell the most concerning story. Some locations in the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas have received just 5% to 20% of average precipitation.

That rapid drying followed a warm-season growing period that produced ample vegetation. Once cured and left without additional moisture or snow cover, those grasses became prime fuel.

“You grow up all that vegetation during the warm season, then you dry it out and don’t get anything else to keep it somewhat wet so it doesn’t burn. It’s a perfect recipe,” Bledsoe says.

Precipitation over the past 30 days.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

Wildfires in the Plains

The setup isn’t without precedent. In late February 2024, the Smokehouse Creek Fire burned more than a million acres in the Canadian River Valley of the Texas Panhandle under similar conditions, which were strong winds, above-average warmth and critically dry fuels.

“This is not unprecedented for the Western High Plains this time of year,” Bledsoe notes. “It’s just the worst-case scenario when you put all those things together.”

Little Relief in the Forecast

Unfortunately for producers hoping for moisture, the near-term outlook offers limited help.

Over the next 10 days, much of the U.S. is expected to trend drier than average. The only notably wet areas are projected to be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the Plains, with colder air remaining locked in Canada.

The short-term forecast shows little relief for much of the U.S.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

Above normal temperatures could also pose a problem for producers in the West and Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

“This pattern is not going to be that favorable to grace those areas that we’re dealing with the wildfires with any real significant moisture,” Bledsoe says. “In fact, you see a pretty good chunk of the U.S. that will likely see just drier than average conditions for that 10-day period. Not necessarily dry for everybody, but drier than average. The only really wet areas will be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. And we’re going to revert back to the warmth too.”

Looking ahead to March, extended European model guidance suggests a continuation of the pattern: dry conditions across California, Arizona, New Mexico and much of Texas and the Southwest High Plains, with wetter conditions developing farther east.

The extended forecast shows little relief across the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

March is often a volatile month, Bledsoe says, bringing sharp contrasts between “haves” and “have-nots” in terms of precipitation.

“You’re going to the haves farther east, and then areas farther south and west that have been kind of shut out are probably going struggle a little bit. And time, I know it only takes one storm to change this narrative here in the Western High Plains to cover the ground with snow or put more moisture in the ground or kind of turn the corner,” he says. “But right now this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”

Bledsoe knows more than anyone that the forecast can change, but the set-up right now doesn’t look favorable for moisture in the Plains through March.

“It only takes one storm to change the narrative, to cover the ground with snow or put meaningful moisture back into the soil,” he says. “But right now, this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”

For livestock producers and farmers across the High Plains, that means continued vigilance. With cured grasses, persistent wind and limited precipitation in the forecast, wildfire risk may remain elevated as the region moves deeper into its traditional spring wind season.

Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 13:04:58 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are watching the Pacific closely this year as NOAA predicts La Niña could exit faster than expected, potentially giving way to an El Niño later in 2026. While this transition could bring shifts in rainfall patterns, experts caution the change will likely be gradual, meaning parts of the country could remain dry well into spring.

NOAA is now forecasting La Niña to exit by spring and El Niño to possibly enter the picture this year, but not all meteorologists agree on the timing of that. Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather , says the key is when this transition takes place, and when warming ocean temperatures occur, as to how it could change weather conditions for not just planting but also the growing season ahead.

Two Weather Patterns Driving Dryness

What’s scary for farmers today is just how dry it is across parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast and Midwest. Similar to last winter, a dry fall was only exasperated by a fairly dry winter, with drought a growing threat heading into spring.

The map that shows percent of normal precipitation shows the areas of the country desperately in need of more moisture heading into spring for both crops and pasture conditions.

(World Weather )

Farmers have a reason to be concerned. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor drought and dry conditions remain widespread across the country:

About 35.7% of the U.S. (including Puerto Rico) is in drought (D1–D4)
More than 42.5% of the Lower 48 is also in drought conditions
Moderate to severe drought levels have worsened in parts of south-central Texas into Arkansas/Missouri and from Florida to Virginia over the past week

Meanwhile, California, long a drought focal point, has recently been reported as drought-free for the first time in about 25 years after significant winter storms.

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

What’s driving the dryness across the rest of the country? Lerner says it’s two-fold.

“We’ve actually got two major patterns at work right now,” Lerner says. “One is La Niña, which is definitely influencing the drier tendencies across the central U.S., and the other is an upper wind flow pattern tied to the lunar cycle. Together, they’re keeping cold surges coming into eastern North America and limiting rainfall across much of the Plains.”

Subsoil moisture maps also paint the picture of how dry it is across portions of the U.S.

(World Weather )

Current soil moisture charts also show large swaths of dryness in the west-central and southwestern Plains, amplifying concerns heading into spring.

“These areas aren’t likely to get another good drink of water anytime soon; we had a little break last week, but it’s temporary,” Lerner says. “Even though the Midwest doesn’t look too bad for this time of year, much of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and northwestern Ohio should already have saturated soil. Still, we’re in a droughty environment.”

The Big Debate: How Quickly Will La Niña Exit?

According to NOAA models, Lerner explains, La Niña is in place but expected to exit rapidly, with a possible shift to El Niño by May.

“You can see the ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are still cooler than normal,” Lerner says “To qualify for La Niña, you need roughly half a degree Celsius below normal, and that’s exactly what we have right now.”

World Weather’s Drew Lerner says if history is any indication, NOAA’s forecast model for ocean warming temperatures may be too aggressive.

(World Weather )

However, he warns that the NOAA model predicting a quick exit has historically been overly aggressive, and last year was a perfect example of that.

“If you look back at the last two years, the model forecast La Niña would develop by May or June, but it didn’t actually arrive until the fourth quarter,” Lerner says. “I think the model is too warm for a rapid exit this year as well. My expectation is that El Niño won’t really show up until the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter.”

Earlier this month, NOAA issued its latest La Niña forecast, saying La Niña is likely to persist for now, but that’s followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO neutral during January to March. ENSO Neutral, according to NOAA, is likely to develop in at least the northern hemisphere through late spring 2026.

“Here’s what I take away from this, and I’ve been chatting about this and other meteorologists have been chatting about this for a while,” says Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather . “I have great respect for NOAA and the National Weather Service, but to be honest with you, I think they’re a little late to the party with how this transition is going to unfold because what’s going on in the Pacific Ocean right now is a pretty significant transition away from the La Niña. So I think we have seen this event peak, and I think it is going to exit more quickly than maybe what NOAA’s forecast is currently suggesting.”

Bledsoe says not only does he think NOAA is late to the party in forecasting La Niña’s departure, but he also thinks the U.S. will see a transition to El Niño faster than what NOAA currently shows.

“Initially what that can do, and what that can mean, is that transition period, it can still have some dryness produce across the Plains and across the Corn Belt, at least early on in that transition,” Bledsoe says. “History suggests that after that early transition is gone, that a lot of us will have wetter than average conditions try to show up during the heart of the growing season.”

Bledsoe says that is several months away and difficult to forecast, but he says there are different models that indicate this scenario and a quick transition can also bring wild weather.

Brett Walz Sees a Neutral Spring, Possible El Niño Summer

Brett Walz, meteorologist with Bam WX , also thinks we could be saying good-bye to La Niña in the next couple of weeks.

“I’m starting to see the shifts and getting away from La Niña probably in the next couple of weeks,” he tells “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “We’ll warm the waters up and get into what we call ENSO Neutral as we work into spring. I really think that by summer we can get into an El Niño.”

Walz also notes ENSO-neutral springs often bring a mix of dry and volatile conditions.

“The back half of the season tends to see some dryness, especially in the Upper Midwest,” he says. “May 2023 was a very dry month leading into planting and the start of the growing season, and I see some similarities here. Before that, March and early April could be a little volatile, with some ups and downs and even early-season severe weather.”

Implications for Spring Planting

For U.S. farmers, the combination of lingering La Niña effects and a transitional ENSO-neutral spring could mean dryness persists in critical growing regions through spring.

“Parts of the central U.S., especially the western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat areas, are going to see below-normal precipitation during spring,” Lerner says. “The Delta and lower Midwest may do a little better, but overall, we’re looking at a spring that won’t dramatically relieve the dryness farmers have been dealing with.”

He points out analogs from past ENSO years support this outlook, but then the forecast flips to more moisture in summer for more northern states, with dryness parked in the South.

“Three of the four years I’ve analyzed moved from La Niña into neutral conditions through early summer, then transitioned to a weak El Niño later,” Lerner says. “We generally see a wetter bias in the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest in summer, while the Southeast may fall back into drier conditions after a brief spring break.”

“If we were to suddenly shift into El Niño, we’d see more rainfall in the Plains and western Corn Belt during spring,” he adds. “But given the history of these forecast models, it’s unlikely we’ll see a dramatic shift until later this year.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Summer Outlook: A Mixed Picture

Looking ahead, both Lerner and Walz see the potential for wetter conditions later in the growing season:

Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest could see above-average precipitation in summer
Southeastern U.S. could experience drier conditions after a brief spring respite
The western Corn Belt and hard red winter wheat regions will likely remain dry through spring

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Impacts on South America’s Weather

Walz says these ENSO shifts have global implications, particularly for South America.

“There’s a lag in how La Niña affects South America, because their growing season is opposite ours,” he says. “Currently, we’re still seeing dryness across Argentina and Southeast Brazil, but as La Niña weakens, we may start getting rains back into Brazil, especially by the back half of February.”

But up until this point, Lerner says La Niña isn’t having much of an impact on South America’s weather, which he says is a byproduct of the very weak status of the current La Niña event.

“And if you look at the soil assessment there in Brazil and Argentina, you can see the moisture profile is really not too bad,” Lerner says. “Now we are starting to dry out portions of Buenos Aires and some of the neighboring areas there in Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe, even southern Cordova, and we do to see some significant moisture in these areas.”

Subsoil moisture maps in South America show a couple areas of dryness, but Brazil looks to have adequate moisture for now.

(World Weather )

He points out just last week some of the computer forecast models were trying to generate a La Niña-like ridge of high pressure over Argentina through these next 10 days.

“And if that happens, we will continue to dry down Argentina, but more so in the east rather than the south, and it will go ahead and spread a little bit into southern Brazil,” Lerner says. “But, as far as La Niña events is concerned, this one has not brought much dryness to South America, and most of the South America crops, up until now, have been doing very well.”

He says if La Niña does dissipate in February, then it’s going to probably start raining again in these drier biased areas.

“I think that this short-term bout of ridge development and drier bias conditions in Argentina, Brazil, will not likely last long enough to have a big impact on the bottom line,” he adds.

What U.S. Farmers Need to Know Going Forward

Spring 2026 could bring a mix of dryness, volatility and early-season severe weather in key U.S. crop areas. Irrigation management and soil moisture monitoring will be critical. Farmers should also keep an eye on South American conditions, which influence global markets, especially for soybeans and corn.

“Farmers shouldn’t rely on a sudden shift to El Niño to solve moisture deficits,” Lerner emphasizes. “Prepare for continued dry spells in spring, and be ready to take advantage of wetter periods later in the year if they arrive.”

Walz adds: “This spring will be ENSO-neutral, a transitional period, but summer could bring a true El Niño — something that isn’t common but could have significant implications for rainfall patterns and planting decisions.”

2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 14:50:13 GMT

After a year that challenged nearly every long-range forecast, weather uncertainty remains a dominant theme heading into 2026. Shifting climate signals with La Niña looking to make a quick exit, evolving ocean temperatures and global production concerns are once again forcing producers and markets to stay flexible.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow and atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the lessons of 2025 serve as a reminder even confident outlooks can unravel quickly, and that adaptability is critical as weather patterns reset. But overall, he thinks 2026 could bring favorable weather, especially for crop production.

2025: A Year Forecasts Missed

Coming into 2025, a growing body of forecasts pointed toward drought risk across the western and central Corn Belt. Those concerns were based on long-term dryness signals that had appeared consistently for nearly a decade. But as spring unfolded, the atmosphere took a sharp turn.

“2025 didn’t shape up like any forecast thought it would,” Snodgrass says. “Instead of the widespread drought everyone was worried about, we ended up with flooding, excess moisture and major disease pressure.”

Heavy rains in April and May triggered widespread flooding across the Mid-South, Delta and southern Plains, replenishing soil moisture and wiping out early drought fears. While summer brought hot overnight temperatures, frequent storms in June, July and early August kept crops supplied with moisture — but created ideal conditions for disease.

“If you were in the Corn Belt, you were fighting southern rust and tar spot,” Snodgrass says. “If you hit twice with fungicide, yields were there. If not, disease pressure took a real toll.”

Warm overnight temperatures combined with frequent rainfall created ideal conditions for crop disease across much of the Corn Belt. Southern rust and tar spot became widespread issues, reinforcing how excess moisture can be just as damaging as dryness when timing and intensity aren’t favorable.

Despite those challenges, U.S. production came in strong overall, shifting attention to the global balance sheet and, in particular, South America.

South America Avoids Major Stress... For Now

With the U.S. crop largely established, concerns turned south as traders and analysts monitored planting progress and moisture conditions in Brazil and Argentina. Early delays raised questions, but recent rainfall across key growing regions helped stabilize crop conditions.

He says vegetation health indicators, including NDVI data, show little evidence of widespread stress heading into early 2026. While La Niña is typically associated with dryness risk in parts of South America, its influence so far has been muted — and that has kept weather-driven market anxiety in check.

The bigger question now isn’t how La Niña has behaved so far, but how long it will remain in place.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a report earlier this month that says La Niña is present and is “favored to continue for the next month or two.”

CPC says it’s important to note:

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI (the rolling three-month average temperature anomaly) greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

To be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, CPC says it’s those thresholds that must be exceeded for a period of at least five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons.

The Growing Likelihood of El Niño in 2026

The move to possible ENSO neutral conditions.

(CPC )

Snodgrass says as La Niña is in place to start 2026, it’s a pattern that typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the northern U.S. and warmer, drier weather to the South. However, he adds the event may not last.

“I was wrong earlier when I thought 2026 might mirror 2025,” he admits. “That dialogue is gone.”

Most major forecasting centers, particularly European models, suggest La Niña could exit quickly in January or February. By spring, there’s roughly a 50% chance El Niño conditions could emerge — a major departure from last year’s pattern.

“That fast exit changes everything,” Snodgrass says.

CPC agrees. In a statement released Thursday, January 8 , CPC says there are now growing chances of an El Niño this year.

“La Niña may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026. For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring,” says the CPC. “In summary, La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.”

The IRI multi-model predictions indicate ENSO-neutral will emerge during January-March (JFM) 2026.

(CPC )

What a Faster Transition Could Mean for Spring

If La Niña fades quickly, spring could offer more favorable planting opportunities across key production regions. Drier periods and fewer prolonged storm systems would be favorable for spring planting.

“Two of the analogs I’m watching closely are 2009 and 2018,” Snodgrass says. “Those were pretty good crop years across much of the Midwest.”

Still, Snodgrass cautions confidence will increase only as March and April weather patterns become clearer. Until then, flexibility remains essential. He says at this stage, however, the pattern looks supportive rather than threatening.

“Right now, I like what I see,” Snodgrass says.

The Most Important Signals to Watch in 2026

While ocean temperatures remain important, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska, Snodgrass says one indicator stands above the rest as spring approaches.

“Watch where the severe weather sets up,” he says.

If spring storms focus across the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio River valleys, including the Delta and surrounding states, then Snodgrass explains that typically reduces the risk of summer drought. But if severe weather stays concentrated farther west, like in western Kansas, Colorado or western Nebraska, that’s when concerns begin to rise.

“If the storm chasers are far away from the Mississippi River, my ears perk up,” Snodgrass says. “If they’re chasing storms all through that valley, I feel much better about moisture and drought risk.”

Global Weather Still Shapes the Market

Even with improving signals at home, global production remains a major market driver. As U.S. farmers prepare for planting, attention will also remain on South America’s safrinha corn crop.

“Does that crop go in on time? Does it have moisture stress late?” he asks. “Those questions still matter, and they can tug on markets while we’re focused on planting here.”

Late-season moisture stress or planting delays there could tighten global supplies and inject volatility into prices. That makes spring a uniquely complex period, one where weather developments across multiple continents can influence market direction simultaneously.

What Farmers Need to Keep in Mind

After a year defined by surprises, 2026 is shaping up with a different set of risks — and opportunities. A faster La Niña exit, improving spring conditions and historically favorable analogs provide cautious optimism, but weather remains an ever-moving target.

“These are early signals, not guarantees,” he says. “But knowing what to watch, and when, makes all the difference.”

For producers and markets alike, the key will be watching the right signals at the right time.

La Niña Versus El Niño: Why the Difference Matters

La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and each carries distinct implications for U.S. and global agriculture.

La Niña Typically Brings:

Cooler, wetter conditions across the northern U.S.
Warmer, drier weather across the southern Plains and Southeast
Increased drought risk in the Delta and parts of South America
Greater risk of spring temperature extremes and uneven rainfall

El Niño Typically Brings:

Wetter conditions across the southern U.S.
Milder winter temperatures in much of the Midwest
Reduced drought risk in key U.S. production regions
Higher rainfall potential in South America during critical growth stages

A fast shift from La Niña to El Niño can dramatically alter planting windows, early-season moisture availability and disease risk. For markets, these transitions often drive volatility as traders reassess yield potential and global supply outlooks.

Understanding when the transition occurs can be just as important as which phase dominates.

What Keeps Beef Producers Up at Night?

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:08:01 GMT

Worry — it is an anxious way of thinking. It usually involves thoughts about what bad things might happen in the future and if you can cope with them.

In the beef industry, the list of things producers and stakeholders worry or stress about can be long and exhaustive.

Here’s a list of some of those key stressors keeping producers up at night:

1. Fear of Animal Diseases

Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor, summarizes: “As with most folks, I’m concerned about emerging animal diseases like New World screwworm (NWS) and foot-and-mouth disease, and the cascading impacts they could have on the industry.”

Texas beef producer Donnell Brown agrees a top concern on his mind is NWS.

“As temperatures rise this spring and fly season begins again, I am deeply concerned that we could see an outbreak with devastating consequences for livestock and wildlife,” Brown says. “We still lack practical ways to treat or protect wildlife. After the screwworms were eradicated in the 1970s, it was 15 years before I remember seeing deer on our ranch. Today, deer are abundant and hunting has become a major economic driver for ranchers and rural communities. If screwworms cause significant wildlife losses, the ripple effects would be severe.”

Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), says the top five thing that keep him up at night are: “Foot-and-mouth disease, foot-and-mouth disease, foot-and-mouth disease, foot-and-mouth disease and foot-and-mouth disease.”

He explains: “We have a lot of good things that are going on, and yes, we spend a lot of time talking about New World screwworm, but we have the tools able to address New World screwworm. Foot-and-mouth disease is still kind of that unknown, and we understand that in working with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, they know they have proof that terror groups around the country have access to the foot-and-mouth disease virus, and that a pin full is all they need to be able to come in and absolutely send our market into chaos — our industry into chaos, our food supply into chaos and the economics around all of those into chaos.”

He says that fact is why NCBA spends so much time working with USDA, state associations like KLA and state animal health officials to make sure the industry is prepared in the event we have reintroduction of foot-and-mouth disease.

“We haven’t had it since 1929 but it’s going to come again, and NCBA is spending it just about every waiting moment we can to make sure we’re prepared,” Woodall says.

Ron Lemenager, Purdue University beef specialist, adds, “I worry about when, not if, a disease like foot-and-mouth will be introduced that will cripple our markets and supply chain.”

Lemenager agrees NWS is a concern, but in his part of the country a bigger concern is the Asian Longhorned Tick and Theileria.

Check out these related articles:
Foot And Mouth Disease: Producers Should Be Prepared
The Smell You’ll Never Forget: A Calf Infested with New World Screwworm
Protect Your Livestock: Signs of New World Screwworm
5 Livestock Diseases That Could Impact U.S. Food Security and Economic Stability
Theileria and the Asian Longhorned Tick: What Beef Producers Need to Know

2. Weather Challenges

Kansas beef producer Debbie Lyons-Blythe says there are a number of challenges that worry her family.

“No. 1 is Mother Nature,” she says. “Everything we do day-to-day and long-term is tied to weather. Even the markets are tied to what Mother Nature is doing across the nation.”

Cyndi Van Newkirk of Van Newkirk Herefords agrees weather is a big stressor for her family who are seedstock producers in the Nebraska Sandhills.

Lemenager says with multiple years of short rainfall in a number of different areas he is concerned with drought and that impact on corn, bean and hay prices as well as hay availability.

“The variability in the weather and the marketplace are always concerns to worry about,” he adds.

Cattle producer and extension educator Shad Marston from Canton, Kan., says the possibility of extreme severe weather is what keeps him up at night.

“Two years ago in January, we had a really cold week, right at our beginning of the calving season. We only had three calves on the ground,” he remembers. “The temperatures were well below our normal cold temperatures, and the snow created it hard to even get out of the house. We never lost any cattle or calves, but that week was a challenge. Everything on our ranch froze up — waters, tractor and skid steer. We only had one truck running and it just had a flatbed on it with no bale bed.”

Marston says they had to haul small square bales to the cows from the barn for two days until a neighbor came and loaded round bales on the flatbed to take to the cows.

“We parked on top of the hill and let the bales roll off and down the small hill for the cows to eat and bed down on. A couple of times, we had to tie the bales to a tree to get them off the flat bed. We could not risk getting the truck stuck, because that’s all we had to feed them with, and very few neighbors were able to help if anyone had problems,” he describes. “I remember lying in bed at night wondering if we were going to make it the next day. We could of easily lost some of the cattle. So being prepared is my worst fear and I’ve tried to always have a plan for the worst. Extra feed on hand, fuel additive in equipment and enough supplies on hand to make it if we can’t get to town for a week are lessons we have learned the hard way.”

Check out these related articles:
Ranching Parched Land: Strategies for Drought Resilience
Avoiding The Calfcicle: Calving in Winter Weather
Ranchers Make Tough Decisions to Weather Intense Southwest Drought
Weather Swings Bring Mud and Concerns About Calf Health
Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

3. The Cattle Market

For South Dakota cattle producer Ken Odde, he says what keeps him up at night is anything that might “crash the market.”

“I am thinking about both fed cattle and feeder cattle markets,” Odde explains. “Foot-and-mouth disease is high on the list for me, and it doesn’t seem to get much attention recently.”

Van Newkirk agrees the markets and overthinking market swings are a concern.

Check out these related articles:
What Does the Bullish Cattle on Feed Report Mean for the Beef Industry in 2026?
Uncertainty: The Word of 2025 for the Cattle Market
$4 Feeder Cattle: Dream or Reality?
Cattle Market Roller Coaster Continues: Mexican Ag Minister Announces U.S. Visit to Discuss Border Opening
Navigate Market Volatility with Risk Management Strategies

4. Beef Supply and Consumer Demand

“We had the smallest calf crop since 1941,” says Ron Lemenager, Purdue University beef specialist. “Put that with the closure of the Mexico border due to New World screwworm and we have a limited supply. As a producer I like the higher prices, but from a consumer standpoint, at what point are they going to walk away from beef and go to chicken or some other protein source.”

Brown explains supply and demand ultimately govern this market.

“If we lose feedyards and packing capacity, we weaken the demand side of the equation,” he says. “Over time, that reduced demand would place downward pressure on feeder cattle prices, undermining the very producers who are benefiting from today’s high prices.”

Jason Warner, Kansas State University cow-calf extension specialist, says: “In the short term, I am concerned about what could happen to the beef industry if there is a major drop in consumer demand for beef, and the potential ramifications to the cow-calf producer if calf prices substantially drop considering how high cow/heifer prices are right now. I think knowing cow production costs will be important going forward.”

Woodall summarizes consumer sentiment remains the bedrock of the industry’s success.

“As long as the consumer is with us, as long as they are choosing to buy beef, then we have a bright future,” he says.

Woodall credits generations of producers for bolstering herd quality and producing a product people want, not just need, to buy.

Check out these related articles:
Consumer Craze for Protein Drives Beef Demand
Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference
What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?
How Many Minutes Does a Consumer Have to Work to Buy A Pound of Ground Beef?

5. Government Interference

Lyons-Blythe says another concern is government interference in market disruptions and environmental regulations.

Woodall adds we need to keep the government out of the cattle market.

“We want to be able to grow this industry,” Woodall says. “As producers, one of the best things you can do is call your member of Congress, call your two senators, and tell them to be advocates for us. We don’t need new programs. We don’t need a return of things like mandatory country of origin labeling. We simply need the government to stay out of the marketplace.”

Check out these related articles:
Did the Administration’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?
Beef Producers React to USDA’s Plan to Fortify Industry and Trump’s Social Media Comments
USDA Has No Plans for Financial Incentives to Rebuild Cattle Herd

Other Industry Challenges

“One other thing that concerns me is the closing of some of our packing plants,” Lemenager says. “While I understand they need a steady supply of cattle to cover their overhead costs, but will they ramp back up when cattle numbers return?”

Lyons-Blythe says a local concern is the invasion of the cedar tree into the Flint Hills.

“I think in the last 30 years, we have seen such a tremendous encroachment and a lot of the prairie lost due to the cedar tree,” she explains.

Rowan, a beef cattle geneticist adds: “From a genetics perspective, I’m constantly thinking about how we will deal with the antagonisms between growth and carcass weight and grazing cow efficiency.”

Van Newkirk explains family dynamics is another challenge multi-generational beef producers face.

Check out these related articles:
Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What’s Next in 2026?
Prescribed Burns: Keeping the Prairie Alive; Preventing Wildfires
CattleFax Predicts Profitability Despite Increased Uncertainty
Impacts of Heavier Carcass Weights
Back to the Basics: Terminal Crossbreeding Bridges Cow-Calf Efficiency and Carcass Value
5 Steps to Successful Transition Planning
How to Find Peace During Generational Transitions

Lyons-Blythe says when asking her sons what keeps them up at night their response is the upcoming calving season.

“It not only keeps them up, but it gets them up as they check heifers all night and day,” she says.

Don’t worry, we’ll tackle that challenge next week with our calving preparation blitz week on Drovers.com.

Arctic Blast to Bring Single-Digit Temps to Northern Plains, Freezes Deep into the South

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 15:59:13 GMT

A powerful burst of Arctic air is on the move, set to drive a dramatic temperature plunge across much of the U.S. this weekend into early next week. Meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. says this upcoming cold surge could deliver the most widespread chill of the season so far, and it’s being intensified by key factors: dry soils and dry air.

From Record Heat to Bitter Cold

Just days after record-breaking heat scorched the West , a sharp reversal is underway. A surge of frigid air straight from the Arctic is diving south, bringing widespread frost and freezing conditions well beyond the northern states.

According to Lerner: “Temperatures below freezing could stretch all the way down to the Delta,” with single-digit lows possible in parts of the northern Plains and teens across the upper Midwest.

“This is an air mass that’s coming straight from the Arctic,” Lerner explains. “And when that kind of air travels over dry land, especially with the drought conditions we have across the Plains and Canadian Prairies, there’s nothing to moderate it. The cold becomes even more intense.”

That blast will drop temperatures well below normal across the central and eastern U.S., with freezing temperatures stretching all the way down to the Delta by Monday morning.

(Drew Lerner )

Dry Soils Make Cold Air Colder

The ongoing drought, reflected in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , is playing a major role in how extreme the cold feels. Without moisture in the soil or atmosphere to absorb and hold heat, temperatures swing dramatically — soaring well above normal ahead of a front, then crashing well below normal once Arctic air settles in.

“The dry bias we have right now isn’t going to change when that cold air arrives,” Lerner notes. “So we’re going to see temperatures just plummet.”

That means agriculture producers, particularly in the Southern and Eastern states, need to be on alert. Lerner expects frost and freezes to reach as far east as the Carolinas and Georgia, potentially stressing late-season crops and winter wheat stands that haven’t fully hardened off.

While this particular cold surge may only last a few days, Lerner says it’s part of a larger pattern that will repeat through winter — alternating bursts of warmth and cold, driven by La Niña and jet stream fluctuations.

(Drew Lerner )

A Pattern That Could Repeat

While this cold snap will be short-lived, Lerner warns it’s likely a preview of what’s to come this winter. He expects the pattern of alternating warm and cold spells to persist, driven by La Niña and the configuration of the jet stream.

“This is something we’re going to see periodically over the winter,” Lerner says. “We’ll get these big bursts of cold air into the eastern U.S., followed by warmer intervals that bring storminess to the Pacific Northwest and the central Rockies.”

Those intermittent storms might deliver some much-needed moisture to the upper Midwest, but much of the central and southwestern Plains is expected to remain drier than normal through at least early winter.

What Farmers Can Expect

Coldest Morning: Monday, with single digits in the northern Plains and lows near freezing across the Deep South.
Freeze Risk: Frost and light freezes likely as far east as the Carolinas and Georgia.
Moisture Outlook: Continued dryness in the central U.S. under La Niña.
Pattern Ahead: More frequent cold surges alternating with warm, stormy spells in the West.

Looking Ahead

Lerner suggests producers might need to wait until January or February before seeing any meaningful change in the moisture pattern. Until then, temperature swings will be the norm — and the upcoming Arctic outbreak will be a sharp reminder that winter is knocking at the door.

“I’m not ready for single digits either,” Lerner adds with a laugh.

Widespread Warmth, Lingering Drought Dominate Early November Outlook

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 15:54:01 GMT

It’s been an unusually warm start to November, a trend that’s gripping the West and preventing moisture from reaching areas that need it. But that trend could shift later in the month, at least in terms of temperatures.

Several parts of the U.S. experienced their warmest November days on record in 2025, including Denver, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz. Other locations like Goodland, Kan., Sidney, Neb., and La Junta, Colo., also set daily record highs. But just how high are we talking?

Denver : Broke its all-time record November high, reaching 83°F and significantly exceeding the previous record of 78°F
Tucson : Set a record for the hottest day of the year on Saturday with 88°F, then broke its own record the next day with 92°F
Cheyenne : Recorded its latest-ever 70°F
San Jose : Reached 80°F

Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, of Brian Bledsoe Weather, says through the first half of November, he expects above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, with the Southeast seeing slightly cooler conditions.

“The western two-thirds of the country are just going to be a blowtorch,” he says.

Not Good News for Chances of Rain

It’s not just the warmth, but also the lack of moisture in the forecast. Bledsoe says rain chances will stay limited for most regions, especially the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where below-normal precipitation is likely. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies are the exceptions, potentially seeing wetter-than-average conditions.

“We’re continuing to build on some of these dry areas that have expanded across much of the country,” Bledsoe says. “If you look at the current drought monitor, there’s still a good bit of the country suffering from drought.”

The most recent look at the U.S. Drought Monitor paints a troubling picture heading into winter.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

He notes that drought persists in the Southwest, where the monsoon season failed to deliver consistent rainfall. Washington, Idaho, and northwest Montana are also struggling with dryness, while parts of the Corn Belt — and even sections of the Northeast — remain abnormally dry.

“Absolutely, we have areas we need to work on,” he says. “But the current pattern just isn’t conducive to big storms bringing widespread moisture.”

Ridge Holds Firm Across the West

Bledsoe explains a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior West — covering Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico — is pushing most storm systems northward.

A look at how the warmth will shift in November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

“That ridge is basically diverting the storm track,” he says. “Meanwhile, farther east — across the eastern Great Lakes and into the far eastern Corn Belt — we’ll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That brings a few chances for colder air and maybe some brief moisture, but it’s not a setup for big storms.”

Pattern Shift Possible Later in November

There is some hope for change as the month progresses. Long-range European models show the upper-level ridge beginning to weaken, opening the door for a more active storm track.

“As that ridge gradually breaks down, we’ll start to see less of the drier-than-average pattern,” Bledsoe says. “Areas farther north will likely see moisture first, and then hopefully that extends farther south into the Plains.”

Precipitation outlook for the first half of November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Snow in the Forecast?

While the heat was the headline to start November, and continues to be the case in the western U.S., there will be a blip of not just cooler air, but much colder air that could bring snow to the central and eastern parts of the country. But it won’t last long.

AccuWeather says you’ll need to brace for a big change this weekend and early next week in the central and eastern United States . AccuWeather meteorologists warn the weather pattern indicates a surge of cold air and at least one storm capable of producing a band of accumulating snow across parts of the Midwest, followed by lake-effect snow and perhaps a bit of snow in portions of the Appalachians to the south.

AccuWeather says cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast.

(AccuWeather)

AccuWeather is calling it “Christmastime cold” that’s on the way.
Their meteorologists say a large push of cold air arrives this weekend, which will cause conditions to drastically change.

A significant dip in the jet stream is forecast to begin this weekend for the Central and Eastern states.

“Temperatures will feel more like mid-December or even Christmastime in many places by next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.

A storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

(AccuWeather )

But the cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast, according to AccuWeather.

It may be temporary, but the colder air will bring chances of accumulating snow in areas of the Midwest and the Appalachians that are farther south and rather low in elevation, according to AccuWeather. The storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

“As we see it now, the most likely time for snow showers in Chicago that can bring a small accumulation is late Saturday night to Sunday morning,” Pastelok says. “Around Detroit the most likely timing for accumulating snow showers is from Sunday morning to Sunday midday.”

While an excessive accumulation of snow is not anticipated on the roads, AccuWeather says the snow can fall at a heavy enough rate near the Interstate 94 and 80/90 corridor to make for slushy conditions in some areas.

La Niña Watch Is On — Here’s How It Could Shake Up Drought and Winter Weather

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:41:00 GMT

Farmers across the U.S. are gearing up for a potentially volatile winter as the National Weather Service has placed the country under a La Niña Watch. But what does that really mean for the months ahead? Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions , says this winter’s pattern could be one to watch closely.

Weather Highlights from Now Through December

Expect an early-peaking La Niña, with the strongest impacts likely around Christmas.
Look for cold, snowy conditions in the north and dryness in the south.
Watch for frequent Arctic intrusions and an active Ohio Valley storm track.
Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical, especially in the Midwest.
Persistent Cotton Belt drought could influence next summer’s Corn Belt outlook.
South America faces a wetter north/drier south split, which could affect global crop markets.

What a La Niña Watch Means

The Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 71% chance of La Niña conditions developing from October through December. CPC also issued a La Niña Watch , which means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months.

“La Niña just means the trade winds are fast across the equator,” Snodgrass explains. “When that happens, it tends to give us a very loopy jet stream throughout winter.”

That looping pattern is something Snodgrass says influences everything from temperature swings to precipitation.

“When you think about La Niña winters, they all have different flavors,” he says. “We’ve had four La Niñas in the last five winters. This would be the sixth one in that time frame. And the big question we have is: Is it going to deliver typical La Niña conditions?”

Historically, La Niña brings colder and snowier conditions across the northern U.S. and drier conditions in the South.

“We typically find that we’re dry from the Southwest, the Sun Belt to the Cotton Belt,” Snodgrass says. “We tend to be snowier and colder to the north — across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. La Niña winters tend to be cold, tend to snow, but that’s not a guarantee — it’s a tendency.”

Early Peak, Quick Exit

This year’s La Niña is expected to be relatively short-lived.

“We think it’s going to peak early, probably right around Christmas, and probably quickly exit,” Snodgrass notes. “The big question I have is: What’s going to happen to the drought monitor between now and next April when we’re thinking about a La Niña winter?”

Moisture Deficits Are a Big Concern

Moisture is already top of mind for many growers. After an unexpectedly wet spring in some regions, conditions turned dry quickly, leaving soil moisture depleted.

“We need to get a lot of moisture before the ground freezes in parts of the Midwest,” he says. “If we can do that, we’ll lock that in and save it for spring.”

But getting there might involve a bumpy ride.

“There are a lot of indications right now that this winter could be fun,” Snodgrass says with a laugh. “When I say fun, that’s fun for me to forecast. That means most people don’t like those kinds of winters. They’re probably going to be pretty volatile — frequent but brief intrusions of really Arctic air.”

He says we recently saw a hint of that with the rain that hit the East Coast last week.

“That’ll set up an active storm track through the Ohio Valley most likely. We already saw our first nor’easter go up the East Coast just last weekend, and you look at all of that and you’re going, is this kind of the way things are going to shake down,” he adds.

If the pattern develops as expected, it could dramatically shrink drought coverage , which currently is covering 73% of the continental U.S.

“You add La Niña into the mix, and it could be a winter that takes the drought monitor from 73% maybe down to 43% or even below that,” he explains. “But the question will remain: Where did the drought stick around?”

Snodgrass is particularly concerned about lingering drought in the South.

“What I always worry about with La Niña winters is if Cotton Belt drought survives, especially in the Delta. And if it’s there by the time we get to spring, then I start to worry about Corn Belt drought the next summer,” he says. “So yes, this is going to be a critical winter for us.”

Analog Years Point to a Volatile Pattern

When asked about potential analog years, Snodgrass points to a recent and familiar one.

“The best analog is actually last year, 2024, which is kind of funny,” he says. “There are five different areas around the globe, and the ocean temperatures, plus the fall drought in the Mississippi basin, plus what’s going on in the Indian Ocean, plus what’s going on in South America — all of these things are like, hey, we just saw this. It was called last October, November.”

That year brought some memorable weather swings. Does that mean we should set ourselves up for a mild rest of fall and then a brutally cold January and February where it snows as far south as New Orleans? That’s what the U.S. experienced last winter, followed by a super wet spring.

“I hate to say it, but 2024 is kind of setting itself up to be an interesting analog to this year,” Snodgarass says. “But like I said, there’s no such thing as a perfect analog — we’ll have to sit and wait to see how it all unfolds.”

South America’s Split Forecast

La Niña’s impacts won’t be confined to the U.S.

“It tends to split South America from Brazil to Argentina,” Snodgrass explains. “Brazil tends to have a decent monsoon — tends to be wetter. They tend to love La Niña if you’re in the Cerrado. If you’re in southern Brazil, they start to get worried. They tend to see drier conditions. You get into Argentina, historically, it’s drier.”

Some areas have already received favorable early rains, while others are still waiting for the monsoon to ramp up. Not only have areas of Brazil seen good rains, but they’ve also been able to plant at a rapid pace.

“And others are going, wait a minute, we haven’t seen this monsoon get really going yet, and they’re waiting. I think it’s going to be a north versus south issue — wetter north, drier south,” Snodgrass says.

Ranching Parched Land: Strategies for Drought Resilience

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 10:32:35 GMT

Drought has reshaped the cattle industry in recent years, but according to the Drovers State of the Beef Industry survey, an increasing proportion of producers are opting to take some type of action to mitigate their risks. While the impact of drought persists for several years, likewise an increasing number of producers who report they reduced their herd size indicate they plan to begin restocking next year.

(Farm Journal)

Despite the high percentage of producers answering they have been impacted by drought, very few operators considered leaving the cattle business because of dry years.

(Farm Journal)

For producers who took action to help mitigate the effects of drought, the most common choices were reducing herd numbers, selling equipment and selling land. One of the other ways producers have mitigated drought effects is through written grazing management plans (GMP) .

Weathering Droughts

LeValley Ranch is a fourth generation cow-calf operation located in western Colorado between Gunnison and Grand Junction — an area where irrigation is dependent on snowpack. Current conditions have reached extreme drought.

Environmental Stewardship Award Program 2024 Region VI Winner LeValley Ranch, Hotchkiss, Colorado

(Baxter Communications Inc. for NCBA/ESAP)

Robbie LeValley, who runs the ranch with her husband and sons, says this is the fourth drought they have weathered since 2000.

“Early on in April and May, when we weren’t getting the late snow and we knew what the reservoirs were measuring at, we made the hard decision to not hay the larger fields and just hay a few of the smaller fields — concentrating on keeping the majority of the fields wet,” LeValley says. “We could keep the grass and the alfalfa alive, but certainly not enough to produce a hay crop as well as graze.”

In normal years, LeValleys take one cutting to concentrate on grazing. They only provide hay from the middle of March to May, this year they had to purchase two-thirds of the hay they typically put up to get them through the winter.

Their grazing timeline changed as well.

“We have a very measured grazing rotation plan in several public land allotments and private leases, which are dependent upon water availability,” LeValley says. “Those ponds have dropped significantly, so we are moving cattle quicker through the rotation — about three to four weeks earlier than normal.”

There will be portions, allotments and whole leases left ungrazed because there is no water there. The cattle drink from natural ponds created by runoff and rain.

Environmental Stewardship Award Program 2024 Region VI Winner LeValley Ranch, Hotchkiss, Colorado

(Baxter Communications Inc. for NCBA/ESAP)

Virtual Fencing Aids During Drought

The LeValleys use virtual fencing in their grazing plan and have expanded areas this year to allow cattle to pick and choose to meet their nutrition needs.

In addition to making grazing adjustments, the family has also culled some of their older females.

LeValley says the grazing plan has been invaluable in being prepared for times of drought.

“The grazing rotation is definitely our insurance policy, and that’s why we’ve had grazing rotation plans in place since 1995,” LeValley says. “We modify it significantly when we have these drought times. But having that additional root mass, even in these drought times, allows for the feed to be relatively good and provides that nutrition the animals need. Having roots to respond when there is moisture is critical for the long-term sustainability moving forward when Mother Nature does decide to provide additional rain.”

Mark and Robbie LeValley

(Baxter Communications Inc. for NCBA/ESAP)

Recognized for Stewardship Efforts

The LeValley family was recognized by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) as a regional winner of the 2024 Environmental Stewardship Award Program (ESAP).

“The LeValley’s willingness to discuss differing ideas, problem solve complex issues and explore new ideas to improve management have led to positive and lasting rangeland conservation,” says Ken Holsinger, ecologist with the Bureau of Land Management-Uncompahgre Field Office. “The LeValley Ranch is deserving of this award for their proven commitment to the stewardship and conservation of their public land permits and for their cooperative efforts in working with agency partners and other landowners.”

For five generations, the LeValley family has been stewards of the land and they achieve their goals through an overall philosophy of land health and management that concentrates on allowing time to rest, grazing moderately and creating pastures where they are utilized in a different rotation in consecutive years.

“Healthy rangelands are important for the productivity of our ranch, and we wouldn’t be in business if we didn’t care for the land.” explains Mark LeValley. “If you manage the land right everything flourishes, and it is going to be here for the next generation.”

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

For more insights to the report as well as producer and economist perspectives, watch the State of the Beef Industry Webinar exclusive on FarmJournal.tv . The panel includes Ken Odde, a South Dakota cattle producer, along with Matt Perrier, Angus seedstock producer from Kansas, and Lance Zimmerman, RaboResearch senior beef industry analyst. You won’t want to miss their thoughts on the beef industry today and in the future.

Your Next Read: 15 Insights on the State of the Beef Industry

Instead of Feeding Hay: 5 Profitable Winter Feed Alternatives for Your Cattle Herd

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 10:27:09 GMT

Traditional hay production is often economically inefficient.

Carson Roberts, Missouri extension state forage specialist, recently shared “ 10 Reasons You Should Quit Making Hay. ” His point No. 10 encourages beef producers to think outside the box and consider winter feeding options that can significantly reduce production costs compared to putting up and feeding hay.

Roberts says he often hears people say, “Reducing hay sounds great, but you can’t starve weight onto a cow.”

He doesn’t disagree with the sentiment, but asks: “Why would you insist on feeding hay when stockpiled milo or tall fescue is often as good or better in forage quality than the average bale of fescue? Furthermore, these stockpiled forages can be produced for a fraction of the price.”

“A cow will do what she’s got to do to get her forage, and if she can’t do that for you, then what kind of cow is she anyways?”

Carson Roberts, MU extension forage specialist

For planning purposes, Roberts says hay feeding costs average $1.18 to $1.75 per day.

He suggests these five strategies that can potentially reduce winter feeding costs by more than half:

Stockpiling fescue — This requires careful animal management, appropriate stocking rates and forward planning. Plan as early as May and June; set aside one-third to half of pasture for winter grazing. Reduces feed costs to 50 to 60 cents per day.
Grazing milo — Roberts says standing milo can provide exceptionally cheap winter forage. It costs as low as 45 cents per day and can support 400 cow days per acre. “For example, a 120-bushel, 23-to-28-acre milo field can feed 100 cows for 100 days,” he explains.
Corn stalk residue — Grazing corn stocks can be economically advantageous. Roberts says some farmers allow beef producers to graze stalks for free to improve subsequent crop yields. Minimal fencing costs may be needed.
Native grass grazing — Another effective option for dry, pregnant females is grazing stockpiled native warm-season grass. Supplement with protein, which is cheaper than energy.
Sorghum sudan grass — Roberts is currently researching using stockpiled sorghum sudan grass for winter grazing; a good-quality option, newer varieties with higher-leaf content.

Roberts summarizes the key to these strategies is forward planning, flexible stocking rates and matching cattle needs with available forage.

He stresses calving timing is an important factor. He recommends late spring or fall calving to align with forage supply.

“You should be calving during the times of the year when forage is cheap and abundant,” he says. “The key is matching cattle production cycles with forage availability. Winter calving — January and February — makes hay feeding nearly unavoidable.”

Roberts reminds producers to develop a drought management plan, emphasizing the need for flexible stocking rates. He advises that it’s often more economical to sell excess animals during drought years than to purchase or make expensive hay.

“Remember, hay is most expensive to make when yields are low, and hay yields are usually low during a drought,” he says. “Producers should monitor forage conditions and be prepared to destock before regional price drops occur.”

Your Next Read: Instead of Making Hay: 4 Profitable Alternatives For Cattle Producers to Consider

Searing Temperatures In Store For the Week

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 12:51:33 GMT

Something is missing in eastern Nebraska that Dave Warner says is usually available in abundance – and then some – on his farm in mid-July: sunshine and dry weather conditions. Warner refuses to complain, though, given how dry his soils were at corn planting time in May. Still, he would be happy if Mother Nature would ease up on the moisture deliveries just a tad.

“We’ve had a lot of rain; in the last 30 days, we probably had 18.5 inches. We had an inch overnight again last night,” he said on Thursday. “We are inundated with moisture.”

Weather Outlook Just Ahead

Warner’s weather scenario might or might not change this weekend, given his area is on the cusp of a new forecast. It’s one meteorologists believe will deliver high temperatures and dry conditions to parts of the central Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.

(NOAA)

But first, the National Weather Service (NWS) says those regions will have to endure strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rains this weekend. Then, those regions will see a heat dome start to build.

“We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend,” says Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. “It’s going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most.”

(BAM Weather on X, formerly Twitter)

Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, says temperatures could reach dangerously high, searing levels next week. He says, in summary:

By mid-week, temperatures in the 90s will have spread from the South into the lower Midwest. By late in the week, at least some 90s are possible in the Northeast.

Parts of the South could see triple-digit highs for several days in a row, including Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri.

Overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s will become increasingly common as the heat wave builds. That won’t allow much heat relief at night.

Michael Clark, with BAM Weather, says he has concerns about a lack of moisture in three states, in particular.

“If there’s a spot where we want to talk about there needing to be some moisture, it is Illinois, Indiana and Michigan,” he told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan this past week. “They are running about 25% to 50% of the normal. Despite what anyone is saying right now, it needs to rain there.”

Warmer nighttime lows are not particularly ideal for corn production, notes Clark. But he offers farmers some encouragement as he evaluates the potential impact of current weather trends on yield projections.

“In my opinion, we are tracking close to three years – 2005, 2021 and 2024. In 2005 and 2021 we had above-trend yields, and 2024 was very big,” he says, adding for 2025: “Indications are the weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall.”

Your next read: Grains Surge Friday: Was it Weather and Did it Bottom the Market?

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 22:13:00 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

What the Wet Start to the Month Could Mean for Drought and Heat in June

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 20:26:18 GMT

Severe storms are threatening the central U.S. again this week. The heaviest rain is hitting areas that have already been pummeled by intense rainfall over the past month — including parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and the mid-South.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.”

Rainfall amounts the last week of May.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather )

The deluge of rain and flooding across those areas is causing a nightmare for farmers . They’re running out of time to get their crops in the ground, facing record amounts of prevent plant.

“We have prevent plant in front of us at this point now where there’s going to be abandonment in most parts of the Midwest, but especially that Northern Delta area,” Lerner says. “We’ve also had some rain in the Northern Plains. That’s been really good, I think. You would probably agree they were a bit dry earlier on and they got some really decent rains. But all of this has been greater than what was expected.”

It’s been the wettest spring in over 100 years in parts of the Delta. But now that we are entering June, Lerner thinks the weather pattern is starting to change.

“I think we’re on the cusp of it, but we’ve got another 10 days to go, unfortunately — at least a week. I think the models are a little bit too wet, to be honest with you, with the second week outlook. So, a lot of the rain you see here on this chart in the Southern Plains, in Texas in particular, over into the lower parts of the Delta, may be a little bit overdone,” he says.

Precipitation estimate through June 8, 2025.

(World Weather )

Lerner says the European model is forecasting more heavy rains for areas of the South, but he thinks it may not actually be as much as that model shows.

“What should happen as we move forward in time is that we should end up shifting everything to the north. We’re going to have a ridge building in the middle of the country that should help to push the pattern northward. I’m looking for the lower parts of the Midwest and the southeastern states to probably end up with a little better scenario as we go out in the second half of this month. I can’t see how this is going to continue all the way through the month of June,” he adds.

Some agricultural meteorologists have been seeing signs of drought since late winter. Cooler temperatures off the coast of Alaska was one major sign they’ve been watching.

The latest forecasts have also been pointing to a warmer-than-average summer when it comes to temperatures. But Lerner cautions it won’t be extreme heat for most of the country this summer.

“We have so much moisture in the soil right now that I don’t think we can get excessively hot like we have in past years. As we heat up the ground, we’re going to pull that moisture out of the soil and add humidity to the air. It’ll be a warmer-than-normal summer, but it’s not going to be excessively high,” he says.

While it won’t be extremely hot, Lerner does think it will be humid — which could keep nighttime temperatures elevated throughout the summer.

“Our nighttime lows will definitely be above average. And the afternoon highs will probably be a little warm too, but they won’t be excessively hot,” he adds.

World Weather’s outlook for June.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather )

As for precipitation outlook for June, World Weather says the extremely wet start to June is creating more of a wetter bias for the month across the lower Midwest.

“The Northern Plains will turn wetter as we go into the second half of this month, as we shift everything to the north. And the one area that’s probably going be drier bias will be in Nebraska and parts of Iowa,” he says. “Those areas, of course, were previously dry. They recently got some nice rain, but they are going to reverse themselves back into a drier mode. So overall, for the key crop areas in the central part of the U.S., it certainly doesn’t look like a terrible growing season — at least for the month of June. We should get a little bit of reversal to take place.”

When Farmers Can Expect the Next Round of American Relief Act Payments

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 13:51:11 GMT

USDA is currently in the trenches of issuing the nearly $31 billion in total disaster and emergency relief aid to farmers and ranchers in four stages. That money was appropriated by Congress as part of the American Relief Act, which was passed in December of 2024. In an exclusive interview with Farm Journal on Monday, USDA Deputy Undersecretary Brooke Appleton said the next round of disaster aid payments could be coming the first full week of July.

USDA began issuing the $1 billion in emergency livestock relief program payments last week, which is the latest in a series of disaster and emergency relief. Appleton told Farm Journal that instead of holding the money and issuing it all at once, USDA decided to issue the payments in four phases, as USDA wanted to get assistance out to producers as quickly as possible.

“We had ECAP (Emergency Commodity Assistance Program) , we now have the Emergency Livestock Relief Program, we’re going to have supplemental disaster relief, and then we’re going to have another emergency livestock relief program to cover the flood losses that we saw in ‘23 and ’24,” Appleton said. “So, we’re kind of doing it in stages, it should stream out all through the summer really, and so I’m hoping that that kind of can relieve some of that financial stress.”

Appleton said USDA has issued $7.7 billion out of the appropriated $10 billion in direct payments under ECAP so far, which was the first stage of payments. Sign-ups for that program began in March. USDA initially issued 85% of a producer’s projected payment, with the remaining 15% expected after sign-ups close on Aug. 15.

Just last week, USDA announced the details surrounding $1 billion in Emergency Livestock Relief Program payments , which is the second phase of the American Relief Act. Those payments are being dispersed now, and it covers grazing losses due to eligible drought or wildfire events that happened in 2023 and 2024. That round of the program doesn’t require producers to sign up, as USDA is using existing information. Since the program was announced on May 29, USDA says it’s dispersed more than $641 million in payments to livestock producers who suffered grazing losses during that time.

“FSA is leveraging existing livestock forage disaster program data to streamline these payments and calculations to expedite that relief. So this was unlike most of our programs, farmers and ranchers didn’t have to go into the office to sign up,” Appleton said. “We already have the information. So those emergency relief payments were automatically issued to producers who had already had their data into their FSA office. And those payments started going out in earnest last week, so May 30.”

The next round of American Relief Act disaster aid payments is the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program, which is the larger amount appropriated by Congress. Appleton told Farm Journal details surrounding those payments are being prepared now, and USDA expects to issue those payments next month. The amount of money that will go out during the next round isn’t known at this time, as a USDA official says the agency is still “working diligently to balance the needs with the available funding.”

“The larger supplemental disaster program that is part of that is making its way through the process right now at USDA and other government agencies,” Appleton said. “The timeline for that, we’re targeting to sign up farmers by the first full week in July, so maybe the week of July 7. That will be literally every crop production loss that has happened for ‘23 and ’24, and that’s just additional disaster assistance that was legislated by Congress.”

Once those payments are released, USDA’s final phase of the American Relief Act will be another emergency livestock relief program, but this covers flood losses producers saw in 2023 and 2024.

Appleton says that’s been the most difficult program to outline and detail, as USDA has never administered a disaster program for livestock that covered losses due to flooding.

“We’ve never had a disaster program for livestock that triggered on flooding, so that piece of it is going to take us a little bit longer,” she said. “And that’s something that’s another piece of this larger disaster package. It’s going to roll out later this summer, but as these programs are ready to go and ready to roll out, we’re focused on doing it as soon as we can, rather than holding them all and doing it all at once. We want to make sure as soon is the assistance is ready to go, we are getting it out and we’re getting it to the folks who need it.”

Congress earmarked $2 billion for livestock losses due to droughts, wildfires and floods. The first livestock disaster aid announced last week totaled $1 billion, which means another $1 billion should be dispersed through the livestock disaster payments that cover losses due to flooding.

USDA says it is fully committed to expediting remaining disaster assistance provided by the American Relief Act 2025. On May 7, it launched its 2023/2024 Supplemental Disaster Assistance public landing page where the status of USDA disaster assistance and block grant rollout timeline can be tracked.

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:46 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:22 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

As Temperatures Near 100 Degrees in the Upper Midwest, Does it Signal a Bigger Problem for Summer?

Tue, 13 May 2025 17:11:12 GMT

The weather this week just might prove how unusual the spring of 2024 has been. From the disparities in moisture, to temperature swing of 60°F in just a matter of days in North Dakota, the weather pattern is abnormal, and weather models are confused on snowfall totals even 10 days out.

Eric Snodgrass, Science Fellow and Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says this spring has been anything but normal.

“I don’t think anybody has told me, ‘This spring’s been pretty much what I expected.’ I think most folks have been saying, ‘Wow, when is this [rain] going to quit so I can get in the fields versus, hey, we got everything done early. Just don’t send a frost my way.’”

Just last weekend, cool temperatures gripped the Great Lakes with frost warnings. And with another cold blast on the way for the Plains and northwest this weekend the temperature swings continue.

“Some folks are still battling with those cold late spring temperatures” Snodgrass says. “But I think that you’re going to look back on spring of 2025 and think this didn’t look anything like 2023, and it definitely doesn’t look like 2024. Are we looking at something entirely different for this growing season than our past few years for reference? And I think the answer to that is yes.”

Weather Whiplash Hits the Northern Plains

North Dakota reached record-breaking temperatures already this week. The National Weather Services (NWS) in Bismark reports a record temperatures of 97°F on Monday, which beat the previous record of 92°F set in 1880.

Four record high temperatures were set or tied at primary climate sites in western through central North Dakota today. #ndwx pic.twitter.com/bNQz1qN4z6
— NWS Bismarck (@NWSBismarck) May 13, 2025

Those temperatures will drop to near freezing by this weekend with some models even pointing to snow. Snodgreass says the weather models aren’t in agreement about snowfall amounts, but one thing is certain: it will get much colder.

The storm system Snodgrass is watching will hit early next week, but he says the models are confused and not handling the cold and snow risk very well.

And this just keeps getting "better". The 18Z GFS on Sunday is off the rails with snow over the next 10-days. https://t.co/Ij3MRkMOgU pic.twitter.com/Thb93bgMzK
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) May 12, 2025

This is the GFS model run on Sunday pointed to as much as 2' of snow in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota early next week. Snodgrass says that model has been unreliable recently, so don’t bank on that.

“The GFS has been having serious problem lately,” Snodgrass told AgWeb. “Do not rely on the GFS right now.”

Snowfall forecast according to the latest Euro model.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Meanwhile, the European mode also shows snow in the forecast, but Snodgrass says he doesn’t trust that model either. However, he says temperatures will drop even further before the snow chances next week.

“There are a pair of deeper lows that are following each other,” he says. “The first comes through and increases the severe storm risk Thursday and Friday, and the second one feeds on the cold air behind the first dropping temps even further giving rise to the chance for snow.”

Disparity in Moisture So Far This Spring

The good news is those cooler temperatures will come with chances of moisture, which will fall in areas of the country that need it. But that moisture will also hit the mid-South, an area that can’t seem to catch a break from the rain.

“Take a look at parts of the mid-South getting over to the southern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I mean Oklahoma and Texas, we’ve got places that have had five to six times their normal amount of rainfall in the last 30 days. And then you go just north of it. Corners of Kansas, Colorado, most of Nebraska, Western Iowa, pockets of Illinois, Minnesota. You have spots that are like, hey, share the rain a little bit. And they’re looking at very, very dry conditions.”

Precipitation Over the Past 30 Days

(Eric Snodgrass)

The agricultural meteorologist is most concerned about Nebraska. He says it’s not just the fact that area has been lacking moisture recently, but the fact disappointing moisture over the winter is creating a deficit for subsoil moisture.

“We have very low soil moisture values in pockets of the western Corn Belt, while soils are completely saturated across the southern tier of the United States in pockets in the Northeast,” Snodgrass says. “So when you look at that, it’s the story of who’s been getting the rain and who’s not, and this spring has not been very equitable in the delivery of that rainfall.”

Soil moisture map

(Eric Snodgrass)

Drought Risk Still a Concern for Summer

The Climate Prediction Center recently released its outlook for summer, saying “ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025.” The CPC says the forecast also favors ENSO-neutral with chances nearing 50% during the autumn.

What does this mean? Snodgrass says you don’t need a La Niña to produce drought.

“There’s often a thought process that you have to have a La Niña in order to have a drought in the summer in the Midwest. You don’t, right? The actual more important thing is the ocean temperatures off the Baja of California or in the Gulf of Alaska,” says Snodgrass. “We’ve already got cold ocean temperatures off the Bay of California. If we kind of double whammy that up with cold water in the Gulf of Alaska or even all the way back over toward Japan, hugging the land, that is the recipe for problems.”

The reason drought this summer is still a concern.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Snodgrass says the forecast for June, July and August is pointing to risks of dryness, especially in July. Even the newer European model is indicating the growing chance of dryness this summer.

“Here’s the lesson: If in the next 40 days, those water temperatures warm, you know what’s going on? The atmosphere is gaining momentum,” Snodgrass says. “If it gains momentum, we tend to have more frequent weather systems and no major risk of drought. If they stay cool, we tend to have greater risk of central United States drought. That’s what I’m watching most closely over the next 45 days.”

Preciptitaion Forecast for June through August.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Rollins Says USDA Will Announce Application Process for $21 Billion in Disaster Aid Within Days

Wed, 07 May 2025 18:44:02 GMT

In her first hearing on Capitol Hill since the confirmation process earlier this year, Secretary Brooke Rollins faced the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday, fielding questions on everything from USDA’s bold budget cuts and frozen funding to the fate of the nearly $21 billion in disaster aid.

Rollins fiercely defended the cuts, continuing to argue that it is a way to make USDA more effective and more efficient. She also told the committee that farmers will be able to sign up for the disaster aid by the end of May.

Congress approved the disaster aid on Dec. 21, 2024. While the $10 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) was passed the same day, it was separate and came with a clear deadline on when USDA had to disperse those funds. In the hearing this week, Rollins admitted the disaster aid program has been more complicated to roll out.

“That one’s a little more complicated than the ECAP, the disaster or the emergency relief payments, but we’re really close and within a matter of days or weeks, certainly by the end of this month, that money will begin moving,” Rollins said on Tuesday.

The nearly $21 billion in disaster aid targets agricultural losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024, which includes:

Droughts
Hurricanes
Floods
Wildfires
And other extreme weather events.

Of those funds, $2 billion is earmarked for livestock losses attributed to droughts wildfires and floods. There is also an allocation of $220 million that will be distributed through block grants to smaller agricultural states with limited farm income and acreage.

“We are within days of announcing the application process,” Rollins said. “Of course, that’s a little more complicated because we don’t have the specifics, and it isn’t, as [Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D.] mentioned, in North Dakota, 15,794 of your farmers and ranchers have received money through that first tranche, through the first $10 billion, the emergency aid. On the weather-related programs, that application opens in the next week or two. And we will be moving very, very quickly.”

.@SecRollins testifies before Congress: "When farmers prosper, rural America prospers." pic.twitter.com/rXwV12JPDD
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 6, 2025

According to Pro Farmer, the disaster aid is intended to cover losses in revenue, production quality, and infrastructure for crops, livestock and timber. And most of the aid is expected to be administered through USDA’s Emergency Relief Program (ERP), which has been used for similar disaster relief in previous years. However, USDA has indicated the new program will be more farmer-friendly than the Biden administration’s implementation of the last ag disaster funds.

Rollins says the rollout of the disaster aid funds is “a long time coming,” bacause it is related to disasters that happened as long as two years ago.

“And so ensuring that we get that out as quickly as we possibly can with the team that we have in place,” Rollins said. “I’m really proud of, I believe, how efficiently and how quickly the team moved out that first tranche. And I believe that you’ll see the same sort of efficiency and effectiveness with the second tranche, so it’s within the coming weeks.”

Rollins Fiercely Defends Cuts at USDA

Also in the hearing, Rollins defended recent budget and DOGE cuts, saying her team is eliminating what she called wasteful DEI spending, fraud and abuse in all USDA programs. She argued the plan is to rebuild USDA to put farmers first.

Rollins also discussed some frozen funds at the agency and when a review of them will be completed.

“We are working around the clock, going line by line, we’re down to the final 5 billion out of, I believe, almost 20 billion of frozen funds, but $5 billion is a lot of money,” Rollins said. “And when you think about that in terms of grant or contract and moving that out quickly, we’re very helpful to keep moving through that very, very quickly and have that done very soon.”

Rollins was also asked about the 15,000 USDA employees who have taken buyout offers from the federal government . Reports show that accounts for nearly USDA’s total workforece, and impacts farmer-facing agencies such as Natural Resources Conservation Service and Farm Service Agency.

“The 15,000 number, it is less than 15% of our total workforce,” Rollins said. “I realize that’s still a very, very big number. But I think it’s important to realize in the context that every year USDA, through attrition loses between 8,000 and 10,000 employees. So, it’s a massive government agency, but they’re refilled. Well, and that’s what we are looking to refill. The front liners, that’s I was talking about right now. So whether it’s FSA, APHIS, the Wildland Firefighters, those are through a memorandum I just signed, we are actively looking and recruiting to fill those positions that are integral to the efforts and the key front line.”

Senator Patty Murray, D-Wash., followed up and asked, “So, you let people go, and you’re looking for new people to fill the positions that they had experienced in?”

“We’re having those discussions right now,” Rollins said. “We are working with all of you around the country, in your states. We believe our firefighters are operationally ready for wildfire season. Our FSA offices, we are making things more efficient, but bringing on new people that could potentially be a game changer in those offices.”

The workforce reduction is part of the federal government’s current Deferred Resignation Program (DRP), which is the voluntary program that allows eligible federal employees to resign in advance while continuing to receive pay and benefits until Sept. 30.

Rollins then clarified and explained the 15,000 USDA employees who accepted the buyouts, weren’t employees who were fired, they were resignations.

“None of those people were fired,” she added. “So, if they want to come back, and if they were in a key position, then we would love to have that conversation.”

Rollins said the latest round of DRPs, which happened in April, USDA didn’t accept some of the resignations, specifically if those employees were in what Rollins called “key positions,” which includes APHIS, FSA, etc.

“We are very intentionally approaching this,” she said. “Have we done it perfectly? No. Any type of whole scale change, and big effort to basically realign an entire government agency is difficult. And we know that, and we know it hasn’t been perfect, but we’re working every day to solve for a lot of this, and I think we’re making a lot of really good progress.”

USDA Spends $400 Million a Day on Food Assistance Programs

The other hot button topic during the hearing was food assistance. The secretary pointed out USDA spends more than $400 million a day on food assistance programs and said ending COVID-era funding programs doesn’t mean defunding food assistance.

You can listen to her pointed comments in the video below.

USDA alone spends $400+ MILLION each day on food assistance programs.

Ending COVID-era funding programs doesn’t defund food assistance. It ensures we’re good stewards of taxpayer dollars. pic.twitter.com/3lT7Fu6or9
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) May 6, 2025

The Omega Block Has Taken Over, And It Could Have a Major Impact on Drought and Planting Progress

Tue, 06 May 2025 19:59:57 GMT

What was a rapid planting progress across the Midwest became stalled by a wetter weather pattern to finish April. But now that we’re into May, an Omega Block is causing that pattern to shift, and that could bring good news for the drought-stricken Plains. It could also propel planting progress.

Michael Clark, CEO and co-founder of BAM Weather, says the rainfall totals over the past week have been unprecedented.

“If you look at areas like the South Central Plains, we have had rainfall totals that have exceeded really a foot or more of rain,” Clark says. “Places like Oklahoma, north-central Texas, that’s a 13" rainfall observation the last seven days. So the South Central Plains has been inundated with rain.”

Rainfall the past seven days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weater )

There were other areas that saw a sudden onset of moisture, which includes central Iowa, the Dakotas and southern Minnesota.

“We’ve lacked in the way of rain in eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,” Clark says. “That’s going to matter a little bit going forward.”

Brace Yourself for the Omega Block

Areas of the Midwest will see warmer and drier weather this week, while parts of the drought-stricken Plains are starting to see some much needed rains, and the Omega Block is to thank for that.

“The Omega block, essentially, what it does is it brings in an area of high pressure over the central part of the country. And in the seven day rainfall map here, that we have, that shows the forecast. It kind of shuts moisture off in the central U.S., but it adds to it in the West and into the East and even to the South,” Clark says.

The rainfall forecast for the next 7 days as of Friday.

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

“You can kind of see that U shape forecast there,” he adds. “This is a seven day rainfall forecast map, so for a lot of folks in the heart of the Grain Belt, there is going to be really a shutoff in moisture as we head into May, but there will be an excess of moisture across the Deep South continuing.”

Clark says it could be too much of a good thing for some, as he’s concerned about too much rain in parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

“But the Omega block is good news for folks that need to get into the field and get some work done,” he adds.

A Big Warm-Up in May

April turned out to be a cooler than average month for temperatures. In fact, many farmers in the Midwest will tell you there’s one thing their crop needs right now, and that’s more sun.

Clark says the forecast is turning warmer and there is not as much rain predicted over the middle of the country.

“The forecast right now for the May temperature outlook is for, I think temperatures to start to warm up relatively pretty quickly for the month of May,” Clark says. “Most of the U.S. growing regions are going to be at or much above normal temperatures and probably a pretty rapid onset to summer. So there is going to be a rapid uptick in the planting pace here over the next couple of weeks, no doubt about that.”

May temperature outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather)

As for the precipitation, Clark says it’s leaning toward favorable for planting progress, as well, but he is concerned about the dryness starting to creep in.

“It will be good for planting. I’m concerned that late May into June, we may be running into some deficits and needing some rainfall,” he says. “So the outlook right now is as we get further into May and into June I’m concern about a potential shutoff and moisture and a little bit more heat to contend with.”

May moisture outlook

(Michael Clark, BAM Weather )

Concerns About Dryness

Clark says when you look at how the May forecast is shaping up, he compares it more to years like 2001, 2006, 2012, and even 2021.

“Now, whenever I drop 2012, people’s ears always perk up and they get a little nervous, rightfully so,” he says. “I’m not saying a year like 2012 would happen, but I am concerned overall that years like that, they present issues with lack of moisture and excessive heat. I think this growing season is something that will be presented with its fair share of challenges in the weather department.”

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:32 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

Your Next Read:
No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

Considerations for Feeding Cattle Through Drought

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 13:25:53 GMT

Several regions across the country have experienced drought conditions in recent years, and the weather trend looks to continue in 2025. It’s important to take steps to plan ahead if pasture conditions deteriorate to the point of having to supplement or feed pairs in confinement.

Karla Wilke, a cow-calf and stocker management specialist for the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, addressed the topic of preparing for drought situations in a recent UNL webinar.

“Feeding pairs is different than feeding pregnant non-lactating cows,” Wilke explains. “That’s something all of us are pretty familiar with because most of us in the wintertime have to supplement our dry, pregnant cows, but what we’re talking about now is feeding them at a time that they would normally be getting all their nutrient needs met out on grass.”

Wilke says there are three big concerns to address when feeding cattle in confinement that would typically be out on pasture.

Meet the energy demands of lactation, which are tremendously more than during gestation
Make sure cows have a decent body condition status for rebreeding
Account for the dry-matter intake of the calf

“We often think of the cow supporting the calf, which she does, but in addition to nursing the cow, that calf out on pasture is starting to eat green grass, and if we don’t have them out there then that calf’s intake is not going to be accounted for there,” Wilke explains.

The gray bars indicate total digestible nutrients while the red bars are crude protein.

(Karla Wilke, UNL)

Once that cow goes into lactation, her nutrient needs are quite a bit higher than they were in the winter before that calf was born. A grazing cow on green pasture can meet her needs for early lactation, whereas a cow eating meadow hay and distillers without going out on grass will use up energy reserves and lose fat deposition and body score, Wilke says.

Research dating back as far as 1986 and as recently as 2021 has shown cows in a body condition score less than a 5 on a 1 to 9 scale do not breed back.

“If that’s what their body condition score is at calving, they do not breed back as well as the cows that are in a 5 or greater at calving,” Wilke adds. “We have to meet those needs nutritionally in what we feed them.”

Feeding options when pastures are unavailable:

• Mixer wagon and total mixed ration

• Sacrifice pasture or an area of a pasture to use as feeding ground

• Use hay, crop residue, fallow ground and pivot corners plus supplement

“The important thing to remember is that the feeding space during feeding time needs to be about 2' per cow and one for the baby calf or the young calf,” Wilke says. “The positive thing of being able to do this on crop ground, or somewhere like that, is it does allow you to spread that out enough that we don’t have a lot of issues with boss cows. The downside is waste that you might encounter on the ground.”

Wilke advises to take into consideration that the nursing calf will eat about 1% to 1.5% of its body weight in forage dry-matter intake.

“As he grows, he eats more pounds of feed, so we need to account for that when we’re putting together a diet for the pairs,” she explains. “Research has also shown creep feeding had a greater return over feeding with pairs and early weaning. If creep feeding isn’t an option, a growing period still provided an advantage.”

An example ration of ground residue, wet distiller grains, triticale, silage, corn silage, and some mineral would meet the nutrient demands of the pair. Additional things to consider: yardage charge for having to feed daily, hidden costs of trucking cattle to other pastures, wear and tear on vehicles.

(Karla Wilke)

If you don’t have a mixer or can’t afford someone to grind, Wilke says there are ways to be creative with feeding.

“I’ve had people tip bales on end and soak them with molasses to get the cows to eat the poorer quality hay without having to run it through a grinder, and then they would feed supplemental cake with it,” Wilke says.

Rolling out wheat straw bales and feeding distillers grains in a bunk is another option.

Wilke reminds producers to be mindful that minerals and vitamins for confinement are different than for cattle on grass. Distillers are high in sulfur, which is an antagonist to copper.

“Mineral should have a highly available source of copper in either copper sulfate or copper chloride,” she says “Lactating cows in confinement also need a pretty healthy dose of magnesium in the mineral. If those cows are going through a drought and they’ve already been through a long winter, they are not going to get vitamin A out of the grass.”

Be aware that commercially available mineral packages are usually intended to be fed when cattle are grazing so they might not have an appropriate amount or availability of certain minerals or vitamins. In addition to mineral, lick tubs are used to provide a source of nitrogen for bacteria so cattle can do a better job of digesting poorer quality available feed.

“Once that cow goes into lactation, she has to have energy, and there’s no way that just eating on that lick tub is enough,” Wilke explains. “She can’t just take on more of that poor-quality forage because she ate some nitrogen from that lick tub. You’ve got a limitation there now that you’ve got to provide something else that provides energy for her.”

Preparing during the good years
Sam Schmitt, a fifth-generation rancher from Gordon, Neb., runs a Hereford based cow herd and yearlings in the Sandhills. The family’s philosophy has always been to take half and leave half when it comes to grazing pastures. He’s preparing for another hot, dry summer and wants to make sure his cows are able to breed back. He’ll be using available pasture and supplementing as conditions allow.

“We’re calving now, and cows are getting 2% body weight of hay a day,” he says. “It’s mostly millet and alfalfa with some oats. They’re calving up, and calves seem to be growing, but I want to make sure we have the mineral package and supplement to keep them going.”

In addition to pairs, the Schmitts run a yearling operation, marketing in July or August depending on when they reach 850 lb. to 950 lb.

“Traditionally, we feed oats and supplement DDGs or a pellet to our calves,” Schmitt says. “They’ll go out to pasture, and we’ll watch to make sure they keep growing. We’re purposely understocked now to make sure we have enough grass. If they look like they’re a little lackluster, we will add a Rumensin mineral.”

The Schmitts have enough farm ground to produce the majority of their feed with the exception of protein base from either cake or a pellet or distillers grains.

Yearlings waiting to move pastures at L — S Ranch in the Nebraska Sandhills.

(Sam Schmitt)

“We’ve responsibly stocked long enough that if we have a drought this year and next year, as long as we can keep our hay count up and can afford to supplement things, then we’ll be alright,” Schmitt says. “We’ve kept to the philosophy of 10 acres per cow, and we don’t stretch it out unless we have a really good year. We’ve also tried to keep an extra year’s worth of hay each year.”

This isn’t the first drought the family has weathered in the 100 years they have been ranching.

“We had a similar drought in 2012. Everybody was shipping cattle left and right, and they just didn’t have any place for them, and so they had to go to somebody who’d pay for them,” he says. “But we didn’t suffer those costs.”

Schmitt says these are the years you prepare for.

“One thing my elders have always been very serious about is drought,” he adds. “This is drought prone country. You’re in the Great Plains, and this is what happens, and this is why our grass always comes back after a drought.”

Your next read: Cow Herd Mineral Program: Key to Overall Nutrition

Against the Odds: How One LA County Rancher Controls the Uncontrollable

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 21:09:19 GMT

Ranchers deal with forces outside their control daily, including markets, weather and public policy. While these issues present challenges to cattle producers, focusing on what can be controlled gives them opportunities to remain viable in the industry.

Los Angeles County cattleman Mike Williams has found ways to use a grazing management plan, virtual fencing technology and involvement with his local and state cattle associations to meet the unique challenges of being a rancher in southern California.

“I think ranchers should always be looking for ways to improve their operations, improve their pastures and improve their genetics,” says Williams, who ranches with his wife, Lynda. “Don’t get into a comfort zone, but stay on top of what you can control.”

Williams grew up in a farming family in Idaho, and cowboyed before serving in the Army. After his time in the service, he moved to California and shod horses. The couple began Diamond W Cattle Company, a cow-calf and stocker operation, and leased land in both Ventura and Los Angeles counties to begin ranching in 2002.

Creating a flexible grazing management plan allows ranchers to adapt as needed.
Currently, the Williams’ cattle graze on 12,000 acres of leased private land in Acton near the Angeles National Forest. Even though it’s not a requirement of the lease, Williams has a written grazing plan. The high desert climate and average rainfall of 6" to 12" makes flexible resource management crucial.

“I use a grazing plan to better utilize the forage and improve the overall condition of the pastures,” says Williams, who makes decisions based on forage quantity and quality.

“The rain in this part of the country isn’t much and is highly variable in how much you get and when it comes,” he explains. “One year to the next, the amount of forage you have can vary significantly.”

Cattle graze in the meadows where Mike Williams has seen perennial grasses return since focusing on resource management. The view over the ridge is the San Fernando Valley.

(Mike Williams)

While the past few years have been better, the area experienced several droughts for about 10 years.

“You have to consider the times of year you can spend in certain parts of the pasture,” Williams explains. “There might be grass in some areas, but the water might not be adequate. In wintertime or at wetter times of the year, there is enough, but maybe not in the hottest part in the summer. I might move to another pasture sooner than I had originally planned in order to take advantage of the forage production while the temperatures are low enough there will be enough water to sustain the cows.”

The forage availability also plays a role in how Williams manages his cow herd.

“I wean my calves, and on good years I’ll keep my calves another year or at least through another season if I have the forage,” he says. “If I don’t have the forage, then I may sell the calves just after I wean them or I may keep just the heifers. Part of the drought management plan is whether or not my calves stay on the ranch or go someplace else.”

When Williams took over the lease, the land was degraded with fences, infrastructure and water resources being neglected. He began improving water sources and has two wells and three springs.

“This mountain is dry,” he says. “But the mountains are like a sponge. The water comes down out of the sky, and it just sinks into the ground, and then it comes out in springs over the years.”

Due to a lack of cross fencing and the expense of putting in fences on the nearly 12,000 acres of land, Williams began using virtual fencing collars on his cow herd two years ago.

(Mike Williams)

Incorporating technology can help save time and money.
Through the years Williams began incorporating new technology to help increase grazing capabilities, including photo monitoring, pasture management software and virtual fencing. He says he is seeing improvements, which he attributes both to grazing management and two good years of rainfall.

“I’m seeing an increase in my perennial grasses,” he says. “There’s a lot of variables, but I am seeing more resilient pastures. I’m able to see some of the spots that were degraded from the cattle spending way too much time there starting to rehabilitate. It’s a slow process, but I am definitely seeing improvements.”

Prior to starting to use virtual fencing two years ago, Williams had used a stockmanship technique to keep his cattle bunched up and herded together on horseback. This new system gives him better management.

“The problem was if you’re not there every day, or every two to three days, the cows would start getting spread out, and that’s a lot of work keeping them together again,” Williams explains.

The condition of pastures and forage availability helps Williams determine if he will keep calves and background or sell at weaning.

(Mike Williams)

The virtual fence has cut down on time and labor.

“I thought it would work as a backup; if my cows started to spread out, they wouldn’t go all over 12,000 acres, which has no cross fencing,” he adds. “I still use the herding when I really want to get impact in a certain area, but virtual fencing has been a game changer of giving me more control over land and cattle management.”

Williams also appreciates the data he receives from using technology.

“It gives me a snapshot of what my pasture is doing, and I can understand if what I’m doing is having a positive effect or a negative effect,” he says. “It takes a certain amount of time to really understand the impact your decisions are having, versus the impact of all the other variabilities you’re having, so it’s a process that takes time to kind of realize and understand.”

While grazing data is important to individual ranchers, Williams understands the importance of the science when it comes to reducing fuel loads and dry vegetation. Located about an hour northeast of the city, the LA fires in January 2025 didn’t affect Williams’ ranch, but he has been affected by previous wildfires in the state. A fire in 2017 pushed him off his lease in Ventura County, and since then he has focused on improving the soil conditions, grass and water infrastructure on the Ritter Ranch property where he runs an Angus-based cow herd.

“The worst of the fires were in areas that don’t have a lot of cattle,” Williams says. “The cattle were pushed out of those areas a long time ago, which I would attribute to be a major reason why the fires were so catastrophic.”

At one time, all those hills were grazed by cattle, Williams says.

“Fires are going to happen, but they don’t have to be as devastating as they are, and management decisions all over the state are largely responsible for the conditions we’re seeing today,” he says. “There’s no rancher I know in the state of California that hasn’t been affected at some point by fire.”

Mike Williams became involved with the California Cattle Association after they intervened in a water issue he had and were able to present science-based data that cattle were helping the streams on his property versus harming them. He sees the value in the work cattle associations do to be the voice of ranchers.

(Mike Williams )

Becoming involved in local and state cattle associations that focus on making policy decisions makes good business sense.
Wildfires in recent years have brought more awareness to the role cattle and grazing play in resource management. Williams encourages ranchers to get involved, and he currently serves as the first vice president of the California Cattlemen’s Association and the Chairman of the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef (USRSB). Williams has seen the positive impact they can make for the cattle industry firsthand.

“I’m definitely sensing an attitude shift in the state among the more urban citizens,” Williams says. “People are starting to question the narratives environmental groups have been pushing, and opening up to the idea that cattle and other livestock can be a net benefit in protecting those communities from these catastrophic fires, but also in restoring these rangelands that can be better than if it just sits fallow. It’s actually worse to leave land alone than it is to use it.”

Williams sees opportunities for ranchers to stay engaged in the process and continue the momentum.

“We need to be on our game and doing things right,” Williams says. “We need to be looking for how we can be better stewards of what we got. Most ranchers are, but every one of us can improve, and we need to be looking for opportunities to improve. It’s not only good for the overall image of ranching in general, but it’s good for each of our operations. With today’s challenges, whether it’s input costs, the markets, the droughts, all the other things, you got to be firing on all cylinders in order to keep your operation afloat.”

Your Next Read: Beyond Barbed Wire: A Look At Virtual Fencing

This Winter's Lack of Snow Cover Could Spell Trouble for Drought in These Areas

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:02:44 GMT

It was the winter that wasn’t for some areas of the U.S. Farmers located in the upper Plains, northern Plains and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, they experienced the winter that wasn’t, now sitting 10" to 30" short on normal snowfall.

It’s been the “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to moisture. April started with monsoon rains that brought flooding all the way from southern and eastern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley. According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, some of those areas saw their worst flooding since the spring of 1997.

“Some of these bottom lands and low lands that are filled with pastures and normally planted to crops, we’re going lose that, or we’re going to have to wait a long time to plant that this year. So, there’s certainly an impact with this early April flooding on top of the mid February flooding across the same general area,” Rippey says.

Observed flooding map

(NOAA )

While there’s too much moisture in the South, which is delaying planting for some, the lack of snow and moisture in the northern tier of states is bringing an early start to planting this year.

Rippey says if you draw a line just north of Kansas City directly east to Washington D.C., the area above that line is where he’s concerned about the lack of snow and what it means for soil moisture this spring.

“Pretty much folks north of theNorthern Plains, upper Midwest and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, as much as 10" to 30" short,” Rippey says. “That’s a concern for those areas heading into the spring because they depend on melting snow to provide soil moisture in the spring for newly planted crops. So, if we were to have a dry spring and summer on top of that nearly snowless winter, that is where we get into concerns for drought, expansion or intensification heading into the heart of the growing season.”

Season-to-date snowfall maps shows just how dry it’s been across the northern tier of states.

(Brad Rippey/USDA )

Rippey points to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , which shows elevated drought coverage compared to normal, in areas of Southern California into Texas. There’s also a second area of drought across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest that’s drawing his attention, which is the area that had very little snow over the winter.

“I think it’s really those two Western drought areas which have almost merged at this point where we do have big concerns for drought heading into the growing season,” Rippey says.

The latest map shows three main pockets of drought across the U.S.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

The National Weather Service Outlook (NOAA) seasonal outlook for May, June and July shows that stark line for moisture could continue.

“The precipitation outlook, unfortunately, shows odds are tilting toward dryness in a lot of the north central and northwestern United States. So, picture that fairly snow-less winter and then a potentially dry summer. Could that drought expand into the upper Midwest and the western Corn Belt? Yes, it certainly could. That’s one real area of agricultural concern for the summer of 2025,” Rippey says.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

Rippey says areas of the country already dealing with dryness and drought are also areas that could struggle to see moisture May through July, according to NOAA.

“It looks like that haves and have nots may continue as you see that wet pattern across the East and hopefully a decent monsoon in the Southwest, but we’re gonna have to wait until July for that to move in,” Rippey says.

As for NOAA’s outlook on temperatures, the agency is forecasting much of the U.S. will see above-normal temperatures, with a pocket hovering over the four corners region in the bullseye for extreme heat.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )