Crop Conditions

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:58:28 GMT

Farmers are keeping a close eye on the Pacific as La Niña, which has dominated weather patterns across much of 2026, begins to give way to El Niño. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) now reports La Niña persisted through February, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. However, rising subsurface ocean temperatures and weakening trade winds signal a likely shift to El Niño by this summer, potentially bringing dramatic changes to rainfall, planting conditions and crop development across the U.S.

CPC says that means the US. is now under an El Niño watch, forecasting a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge between June and August and continue through the end of 2026. But the event’s ultimate strength remains uncertain.

“There is only about a one-in-three chance that this could become a strong El Niño during October to December 2026,” CPC notes, underscoring the unpredictability farmers must plan around this year.

This transition from La Niña to El Niño could have major implications for the spring planting season in the Midwest, the central Plains, and the Southeast, where early dryness or shifting rainfall patterns may affect field work, soil moisture and crop progress.

While some meteorologists are saying there are signs this could be an extremely strong El Niño event , Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, cautions that strong of a declaration just yet.

A #LaNina advisory remains in effect. An #ElNino Watch has been issued. (2/2) https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/WpmK4dNKfn
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 12, 2026

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

What we do now is La Niña is making a quick exit.

Lerner says the current ocean subsurface warming is the early trigger for El Niño, which has far-reaching effects on weather patterns worldwide.

“The ocean subsurface water temperatures are anomalously warm, and we do see a strong upwelling current taking place as we move forward through the next several weeks,” Lerner says. “That will bring that warmer-than-normal water from below the surface up to the top. Once you bring it to the surface, you start shifting high and low pressure systems around the world. That’s when you’ll see El Niño beginning to influence everybody’s weather.”

Lerner notes farmers may not see immediate effects, but the pattern will begin influencing U.S. weather in a few weeks and become more pronounced by mid-summer.

“This is probably six to eight weeks before we really start to see any influence, and it will become more significant as we go through the Northern Hemisphere summer months,” he says. “We’ll likely see this El Niño become a little better defined by July and August.”

Understanding this early subsurface warming is critical for farmers to anticipate planting conditions, irrigation needs and crop development challenges.

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

While CPC forecasts a 62% chance of El Niño forming by late summer, Lerner warns several factors could shift or delay the event, making early-season planning more complex.

“There are a number of factors that could change that forecast quite a bit,” he says. “The Climate Prediction Center modified its official forecast from the raw model data. If you go to their website, you’ll see the actual forecast from their models suggests El Niño could be here in May, maybe even late April. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology also suggests it could begin in May or June. If that happens, weather around the world could start to change fairly quickly.”

Lerner stresses long-range forecast models are more reliable over three months and cautions farmers against assuming early signals guarantee timing or intensity.

“One factor is the strong easterly winds blowing across the equatorial Pacific,” he says. “If those winds lighten, it could delay the onset of El Niño. I have a lot of confidence we will move into an El Niño during the summer months, but the intensity and exact timing are still uncertain. My biggest question is how intense it will be, and at the moment, I want to play that down compared to what some forecast models have been suggesting.”

Farmers should track the weakening of trade winds and ocean temperature patterns closely, as these will influence planting schedules and fieldwork conditions in the coming months.

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Farmers are concerned about the potential strength of this El Niño, given its impact on rainfall, drought risk and crop yields.

“In 1998, we had a really strong El Niño that was disastrous, but it wasn’t predicted to be nearly as strong early on as it ended up being,” Lerner says. “This year is unprecedented in terms of early signals. It may also test our improved models, which attempt to forecast more than three months out. I think these models may be overreaching a little, and we could see the El Niño develop more slowly than some models suggest.”

Lerner predicts a moderately strong El Niño is possible, with peak impacts more likely in the latter part of the third quarter or into the fourth quarter of 2026.

“We might get to a very strong event, but not nearly as quickly as what some of the model data suggests today,” he says. “A moderately strong El Niño is a possibility, more likely later in the year.”

Farmers should be cautious about making early assumptions regarding extreme drought or flood events and plan for gradual changes in conditions.

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

For U.S. farmers, the timing and intensity of this El Niño could bring mixed outcomes for planting and crop development. Lerner says a rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño can produce a drier bias in key agricultural regions.

“Our studies show that when we move quickly from a La Niña in January to an El Niño by June, the Midwest tends to have a drier bias in the spring,” he says. “This is particularly true in hard red winter wheat country and the central and southeastern Plains. That’s a concern because we already have dryness in some areas. A quickly developing El Niño could mean a fairly dry spring. That will help with field progress moving quickly, but crops may be limping along for a while.”

While spring dryness could help farmers get into the fields earlier, it may also stress emerging crops if rainfall does not arrive in time.

Lerner adds summer rainfall will likely vary by region.

“In the summer, situations like this often show improvement in rainfall in the Midwest and Northern Plains,” he says. “But the Delta, Mid-South, and southeastern U.S. have a tendency toward a drier bias with quickly developing El Niños. We already have some moisture deficits in the Delta, Tennessee basin and southeastern states. If rain intensities remain low, dryness could worsen as we move into late summer.”

Farmers in these regions may need to plan irrigation strategies and monitor soil moisture closely to offset potential dry spells.

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Lerner advises farmers to monitor early signals from the Pacific closely and to prepare for variability in precipitation and temperatures throughout the season.

“A quick movement from La Niña to El Niño could cause some spring problems in the Midwest, but much better conditions in the summer,” he says. “Meanwhile, the Delta and Southeast would probably see progressively more significant dryness by late summer. Farmers need to be aware and prepare accordingly.”

The key, he says, is understanding both the speed of El Niño development and its intensity to make informed decisions for planting, irrigation and crop management strategies.

“Pay attention and prepare for a spring with potential dryness in some areas and moderate rainfall improvement in others as the season progresses,” Lerner says. “This could influence how you handle fieldwork, fertilizer application and even crop marketing as the season develops.”

Mycotoxin Risk Holds Steady in 2025

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 19:49:11 GMT

According to the dsm-firmenich World Mycotoxin Survey , which assessed the global mycotoxin threat, 86% of North American samples tested above the recommended threshold for at least one mycotoxin. While mycotoxin levels haven’t necessarily escalated from 2024 to 2025, there was a shift in the distribution, which has some implications for cattle and swine operations.

“The 2025 results show a continued mycotoxin challenge, with contamination rates rising for both aflatoxins and zearalenone and average levels increasing across all major mycotoxins,” said Ursula Hofstetter, head of mycotoxin risk management at dsm-firmenich, in a press release.

The Major Players

Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungi, most commonly Fusarium, Aspergillus and Claviceps species. They develop in the field and can persist through harvest and storage. Weather stress, hybrid selection and storage management all influence which toxins dominate in a given year.

The primary mycotoxins shaping North American livestock risk in 2025 were:

Deoxynivalenol (DON)
A Type B trichothecene produced by Fusarium species. Commonly found in corn and wheat. Often referred to as ‘vomitoxin’.
Zearalenone (ZEN)
Also a Fusarium toxin. Structurally estrogenic and frequently present alongside DON in corn and small grains.
Fumonisins (FUM)
Produced by Fusarium verticillioides and related species. Predominantly found in corn.
Aflatoxins (AFLA)
Produced by Aspergillus species. More common in drought- or heat-stressed corn.
Ergot alkaloids (ERGOT)
Produced by Claviceps species. Typically associated with small grains.

These toxins rarely occur in isolation. Co-contamination often shapes the reality producers see on the farm.

What Changed from 2024 to 2025

The 2025 North American mycotoxin prevalence in raw materials compared to 2024 shows the following shifts:

DON: 74% → 76%
ZEN: 73% → 78%
FUM: 46% → 55%
AFLA: 15% → 17%
ERGOT: 44% → 9%

Trichothecenes remain deeply entrenched, with DON prevalence increasing slightly. Most of this increase is a result of an increase in wheat (73% → 93%). Meanwhile, fumonisins rose meaningfully and ergots dropped sharply.

Cattle: Rumen Function, Immune Resilience and Production Losses

Cattle historically are considered somewhat more resilient to mycotoxins than monogastrics, owing to partial ruminal detoxification. However, evidence increasingly shows persistent exposure to Fusarium toxins like DON, ZEN and FUM, especially in combination, can exert significant effects on digestion, immunity and metabolic health.

When looking at global finished feed samples for ruminants:

DON was prevalent in 69% of samples and above the risk threshold in 53% of samples.
ZEN was prevalent in 73% of samples and above the risk threshold in 33% of samples.
AFLA was present in 34% of samples and above the risk threshold in 29% of samples.

Studies have demonstrated short-term exposure to Fusarium toxins, including ZEN and FUM, affects fermentation patterns and the microbial community, which in turn can reduce fiber breakdown and volatile fatty acid production — key drivers of energy supply in cattle. Even modest disruptions to the rumen microbiota can reduce feed efficiency and gain over time.

The immune system is also affected by mycotoxins. The immunosuppressive effects of common mycotoxins in ruminants have been documented , including alterations in cytokine gene expression, immunoglobulin production and macrophage function.

Further, individual toxins like AFLA have well-established effects on liver function and general metabolism in cattle. Chronic AFLA exposure has been linked to reduced appetite, lower weight gains and elevated liver enzymes, indicating compromised hepatic function that can impact production and health resilience.

These findings indicate how cattle performance and disease resistance can be eroded by the mycotoxin patterns reported in the 2025 data. Persistent DON and ZEN exposure, combined with higher FUM presence, places additional load on rumen fermentation and immune competence, potentially contributing to subclinical production drift.

Swine: Immune Disruption, Gut Barrier Injury and Performance Drag

In swine, elevated prevalence of DON, ZEN and FUM can exert systemic effects on immune function, gut integrity and reproductive physiology at both clinical and subclinical levels.

When looking at global finished feed samples for swine:

DON was present in 85% of samples and above the risk threshold in 41% of samples.
ZEN was present in 79% of samples and above the risk threshold in 19% of samples.
FUM was present in 44% of samples and above the risk threshold in 8% of samples.

Research has shown DON and FUM alter the gut epithelial barrier, impair immune defenses and increase bacterial translocation from the gut, making pigs more susceptible to infections even when properly vaccinated. In the immune tissues themselves, DON exposure has been linked to changes in the gene expression of key antimicrobial and inflammatory regulators, implying a weakened ability to respond to disease challenge at the cellular level.

ZEN adds another layer of complexity. Beyond its well-known estrogenic effects (i.e., swelling of reproductive tissues and altered estrous cycles), ZEN has been shown to suppress antibody production in porcine immune cells, reducing levels of IgM, IgG and IgA. These immunoglobulins are important for protective vaccine responses. This explains why farms employing what should be effective vaccination programs still report breakthrough disease.

Collectively, these mechanisms mean widespread DON and ZEN exposure is a disease vulnerability issue. When the gut barrier is compromised and immune cell function is suppressed, pigs are less able to defend against respiratory pathogens, enteric bacteria and systemic infections alike, and their response to vaccination may be diminished.

Mycotoxin Co-Contamination Defines 2025

The defining feature of mycotoxins in 2025 is not a single toxin spike, but co-contamination. Feeds routinely contain multiple mycotoxins at once and their effects overlap, creating steady biological pressure.

The result is rarely dramatic toxicosis, but production drift is reflected in reduced gains, narrower reproductive margins, lowered health resilience and increased performance variability.

With persistent DON, rising ZEN and higher FUM prevalence in North America, ingredient-level vigilance and close monitoring of performance trends are important. The mycotoxin burden did not spike, but it did rearrange.

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 21:57:53 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

West Nile Virus Activity Spikes to 20-Year High in the Midwest

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 20:48:29 GMT

Scouting cornfields now might net you a different problem than the insects you might have anticipated encountering. An Iowa State University researcher says there are “very high levels” of West Nile virus (WNV) trending in Iowa and other Midwestern states currently.

“This week had the highest observed WNV activity at this point in the summer observed in over 20 years. This trend is of serious concern for the next eight weeks when WNV transmission risks are the highest,” writes Erin Hodgson , ISU Extension entomologist specialist.

To date in 2025, there have been 219 cases of WNV reported in 29 states. In 2024, there was a total of 1,466 cases of WNV reported in the U.S., according to Vector Disease Control International.

In Iowa, data is generated from ongoing mosquito surveillance efforts coordinated by Ryan Smith, ISU associate professor and entomologist. Smith has implemented an interdisciplinary approach to examine mosquito immunity and mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Leading Cause Of Mosquito-Borne Disease
West Nile virus is transmitted through the bite of a Culex mosquito, commonly called a house mosquito. It typically picks up the virus by feeding on an infected bird. West Nile virus is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental United States.

In general, people do not spread the infection.

There are no vaccines to prevent or medicines to treat West Nile in people. Fortunately, most people infected with the virus do not feel sick, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). About 20% of people who contract the disease will experience mild symptoms like fever, headache, and body aches.

In a small percentage of cases, the virus can cause serious neuroinvasive disease issues, such as encephalitis or meningitis, which can be severe and even fatal, the CDC reports.

People older than 60 and those with weakened immune systems are at highest risk for severe illness.

The CDC offers an interactive site where you can view and track the total number of human infections of WNV reported on a county-by-county basis. See current results in your county here .

Implement The Three Rs
To prevent mosquito bites, the CDC encourages people to practice the ‘Three Rs’:

REDUCE - make sure doors and windows have tight-fitting screens. Repair or replace screens that have tears or other openings. Try to keep doors and windows shut. Eliminate, or refresh each week, all sources of standing water where mosquitoes can breed, including water in bird baths, ponds, flowerpots, wading pools, old tires, and any other containers.

REPEL - when outdoors, wear shoes and socks, long pants and a light-colored, long-sleeved shirt, and apply an EPA-registered insect repellent that contains DEET, picaridin, oil of lemon eucalyptus, IR 3535, para-menthane-diol (PMD), or 2-undecanone according to label instructions. Consult a physician before using repellents on infants.

REPORT – report locations where you see water sitting stagnant for more than a week such as roadside ditches, flooded yards, and similar locations that may produce mosquitoes. Your local health department or city government may be able to add larvicide to the water, which will kill any mosquito larvae.

Your next read: Southern Rust Has Infected Iowa Corn in ‘Likely Every County’

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 22:13:00 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

What the Wet Start to the Month Could Mean for Drought and Heat in June

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 20:26:18 GMT

Severe storms are threatening the central U.S. again this week. The heaviest rain is hitting areas that have already been pummeled by intense rainfall over the past month — including parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and the mid-South.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.”

Rainfall amounts the last week of May.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather )

The deluge of rain and flooding across those areas is causing a nightmare for farmers . They’re running out of time to get their crops in the ground, facing record amounts of prevent plant.

“We have prevent plant in front of us at this point now where there’s going to be abandonment in most parts of the Midwest, but especially that Northern Delta area,” Lerner says. “We’ve also had some rain in the Northern Plains. That’s been really good, I think. You would probably agree they were a bit dry earlier on and they got some really decent rains. But all of this has been greater than what was expected.”

It’s been the wettest spring in over 100 years in parts of the Delta. But now that we are entering June, Lerner thinks the weather pattern is starting to change.

“I think we’re on the cusp of it, but we’ve got another 10 days to go, unfortunately — at least a week. I think the models are a little bit too wet, to be honest with you, with the second week outlook. So, a lot of the rain you see here on this chart in the Southern Plains, in Texas in particular, over into the lower parts of the Delta, may be a little bit overdone,” he says.

Precipitation estimate through June 8, 2025.

(World Weather )

Lerner says the European model is forecasting more heavy rains for areas of the South, but he thinks it may not actually be as much as that model shows.

“What should happen as we move forward in time is that we should end up shifting everything to the north. We’re going to have a ridge building in the middle of the country that should help to push the pattern northward. I’m looking for the lower parts of the Midwest and the southeastern states to probably end up with a little better scenario as we go out in the second half of this month. I can’t see how this is going to continue all the way through the month of June,” he adds.

Some agricultural meteorologists have been seeing signs of drought since late winter. Cooler temperatures off the coast of Alaska was one major sign they’ve been watching.

The latest forecasts have also been pointing to a warmer-than-average summer when it comes to temperatures. But Lerner cautions it won’t be extreme heat for most of the country this summer.

“We have so much moisture in the soil right now that I don’t think we can get excessively hot like we have in past years. As we heat up the ground, we’re going to pull that moisture out of the soil and add humidity to the air. It’ll be a warmer-than-normal summer, but it’s not going to be excessively high,” he says.

While it won’t be extremely hot, Lerner does think it will be humid — which could keep nighttime temperatures elevated throughout the summer.

“Our nighttime lows will definitely be above average. And the afternoon highs will probably be a little warm too, but they won’t be excessively hot,” he adds.

World Weather’s outlook for June.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather )

As for precipitation outlook for June, World Weather says the extremely wet start to June is creating more of a wetter bias for the month across the lower Midwest.

“The Northern Plains will turn wetter as we go into the second half of this month, as we shift everything to the north. And the one area that’s probably going be drier bias will be in Nebraska and parts of Iowa,” he says. “Those areas, of course, were previously dry. They recently got some nice rain, but they are going to reverse themselves back into a drier mode. So overall, for the key crop areas in the central part of the U.S., it certainly doesn’t look like a terrible growing season — at least for the month of June. We should get a little bit of reversal to take place.”

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:46 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 15:11:22 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

As Temperatures Near 100 Degrees in the Upper Midwest, Does it Signal a Bigger Problem for Summer?

Tue, 13 May 2025 17:11:12 GMT

The weather this week just might prove how unusual the spring of 2024 has been. From the disparities in moisture, to temperature swing of 60°F in just a matter of days in North Dakota, the weather pattern is abnormal, and weather models are confused on snowfall totals even 10 days out.

Eric Snodgrass, Science Fellow and Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says this spring has been anything but normal.

“I don’t think anybody has told me, ‘This spring’s been pretty much what I expected.’ I think most folks have been saying, ‘Wow, when is this [rain] going to quit so I can get in the fields versus, hey, we got everything done early. Just don’t send a frost my way.’”

Just last weekend, cool temperatures gripped the Great Lakes with frost warnings. And with another cold blast on the way for the Plains and northwest this weekend the temperature swings continue.

“Some folks are still battling with those cold late spring temperatures” Snodgrass says. “But I think that you’re going to look back on spring of 2025 and think this didn’t look anything like 2023, and it definitely doesn’t look like 2024. Are we looking at something entirely different for this growing season than our past few years for reference? And I think the answer to that is yes.”

Weather Whiplash Hits the Northern Plains

North Dakota reached record-breaking temperatures already this week. The National Weather Services (NWS) in Bismark reports a record temperatures of 97°F on Monday, which beat the previous record of 92°F set in 1880.

Four record high temperatures were set or tied at primary climate sites in western through central North Dakota today. #ndwx pic.twitter.com/bNQz1qN4z6
— NWS Bismarck (@NWSBismarck) May 13, 2025

Those temperatures will drop to near freezing by this weekend with some models even pointing to snow. Snodgreass says the weather models aren’t in agreement about snowfall amounts, but one thing is certain: it will get much colder.

The storm system Snodgrass is watching will hit early next week, but he says the models are confused and not handling the cold and snow risk very well.

And this just keeps getting "better". The 18Z GFS on Sunday is off the rails with snow over the next 10-days. https://t.co/Ij3MRkMOgU pic.twitter.com/Thb93bgMzK
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) May 12, 2025

This is the GFS model run on Sunday pointed to as much as 2' of snow in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota early next week. Snodgrass says that model has been unreliable recently, so don’t bank on that.

“The GFS has been having serious problem lately,” Snodgrass told AgWeb. “Do not rely on the GFS right now.”

Snowfall forecast according to the latest Euro model.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Meanwhile, the European mode also shows snow in the forecast, but Snodgrass says he doesn’t trust that model either. However, he says temperatures will drop even further before the snow chances next week.

“There are a pair of deeper lows that are following each other,” he says. “The first comes through and increases the severe storm risk Thursday and Friday, and the second one feeds on the cold air behind the first dropping temps even further giving rise to the chance for snow.”

Disparity in Moisture So Far This Spring

The good news is those cooler temperatures will come with chances of moisture, which will fall in areas of the country that need it. But that moisture will also hit the mid-South, an area that can’t seem to catch a break from the rain.

“Take a look at parts of the mid-South getting over to the southern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I mean Oklahoma and Texas, we’ve got places that have had five to six times their normal amount of rainfall in the last 30 days. And then you go just north of it. Corners of Kansas, Colorado, most of Nebraska, Western Iowa, pockets of Illinois, Minnesota. You have spots that are like, hey, share the rain a little bit. And they’re looking at very, very dry conditions.”

Precipitation Over the Past 30 Days

(Eric Snodgrass)

The agricultural meteorologist is most concerned about Nebraska. He says it’s not just the fact that area has been lacking moisture recently, but the fact disappointing moisture over the winter is creating a deficit for subsoil moisture.

“We have very low soil moisture values in pockets of the western Corn Belt, while soils are completely saturated across the southern tier of the United States in pockets in the Northeast,” Snodgrass says. “So when you look at that, it’s the story of who’s been getting the rain and who’s not, and this spring has not been very equitable in the delivery of that rainfall.”

Soil moisture map

(Eric Snodgrass)

Drought Risk Still a Concern for Summer

The Climate Prediction Center recently released its outlook for summer, saying “ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025.” The CPC says the forecast also favors ENSO-neutral with chances nearing 50% during the autumn.

What does this mean? Snodgrass says you don’t need a La Niña to produce drought.

“There’s often a thought process that you have to have a La Niña in order to have a drought in the summer in the Midwest. You don’t, right? The actual more important thing is the ocean temperatures off the Baja of California or in the Gulf of Alaska,” says Snodgrass. “We’ve already got cold ocean temperatures off the Bay of California. If we kind of double whammy that up with cold water in the Gulf of Alaska or even all the way back over toward Japan, hugging the land, that is the recipe for problems.”

The reason drought this summer is still a concern.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Snodgrass says the forecast for June, July and August is pointing to risks of dryness, especially in July. Even the newer European model is indicating the growing chance of dryness this summer.

“Here’s the lesson: If in the next 40 days, those water temperatures warm, you know what’s going on? The atmosphere is gaining momentum,” Snodgrass says. “If it gains momentum, we tend to have more frequent weather systems and no major risk of drought. If they stay cool, we tend to have greater risk of central United States drought. That’s what I’m watching most closely over the next 45 days.”

Preciptitaion Forecast for June through August.

(Eric Snodgrass)

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:42:32 GMT

It’s been the buzz since winter. The lack of snowcover across the northern tier of states sprouted concerns about the likelihood of drought this spring and summer. World Weather’s Drew Lerner says now that spring is here, the moisture pattern is falling more in line with 1968, and that could provide clues about what it means for weather — and drought — this summer.

The Past Seven Days
Let’s start by taking a look at moisture over the past seven days. Rains continue to hound many areas of the U.S., but it’s the bullseye over the central portion of the country that’s worth noting.

Moisture over the past 7 days shows areas of Texas through Wisconsin have seen the highest amounts of rain.

(Pivotal Weather )

Lerner says instead of focusing on the Delta and the lower Ohio River Valley like the pattern did two weeks ago, now the moisture has been shifted into Missouri and parts of Oklahoma.

“Other parts of the Midwest have really benefited greatly by the precipitation that has occurred recently, especially Iowa, Minnesota, parts of the eastern Dakotas and on into the heart of the Midwest. Those areas still were carrying some moisture deficits, and we’ve done a good job in starting to whittle that down a little bit,” Lerner says.

The Next Two Weeks
Lerner says the long-range forecast for the next two weeks are advertised to produce above-normal precipitation in the Great Plains and upper Midwest. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

The next two weeks are advertised to produce above normal precipitation in the Great Plains and in this first week in the upper Midwest as well. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin are also expected to be wetter than usual in both weeks.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“The additional wet weather advertised for these next two weeks coupled with what has occurred so far this spring does leave the door open for precipitation anomalies in the March through May period to be somewhat similar to those of 1968,” Lerner says.

Similarities to 1968
With the weather mimicking 1968 so far, it’s an important year to study.

“In both years, part of the upper Midwest was wetter biased as was the lower Midwest, at least a part of the Delta and into a portion of the Southern Plains,” Lerner says.

The percipitation anomalies compare March through May in 1968 to March through April in 2025.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

He points out the southeastern states had drier biases in both years, but so did portions of the western United States. The central Plains were also anomalously dry in both years.

“The lines I’ve drawn on the map are pretty much where I think we’re going to be by the time we finish out May,” Lerner says. “So, everything inside the blue lines across Missouri and eastern Kansas and Illinois will be wetter as we move forward through these next few weeks, but it will stay wet in the Delta and the Tennessee River Basin area. We will also see some increase in soil moisture across the Northern Plains as we go forward in time.”

Lerner calls the similarities to 1968 “very interesting” because of the strong parallel.

These are some of the differences expected this spring and summer relative to those of 1968.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

What Does it Mean for Summer?
The summer of 1968 had some strong patterns, including:

Wetter bias in the western and north-central U.S.
Drier across most of the Atlantic Coast states and parts of the eastern and southern Midwest

The summer of 1968 was wetter biased in the western and north-central U.S., while most of the Atlantic Coast States and a part of the eastern and southern Midwest were drier. While World Weather, Inc. does not believe the parallel between these two years will be quite as great this summer as it is now, but some of these tendencies should be expected.

(World Weather, Inc. )

Lerner says these are some key differences expected this spring and summer relative to what transpired during the summer of 1968.

“The springs of both this year and 1968 are obviously going to be quite similar, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states,” Lerner says. “The southwest monsoon will make the interior western and north-central U.S. wetter biased, although the Northern Plains and upper Midwest will not be as wet as that of 1968.”

The springs of both this year and 1968 are going to be quite similar, according to Lerner, but the summer may be a little drier in the central Plains as well as the lower Midwest, Delta and interior portions of the southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, In. )

Lerner says he doesn’t believe the similarities will be quite as strong this summer, but says some of these tendencies should be expected.

“So, the bottom line is most of the western part of the Corn Belt, as well as the central part of the Midwest, will do fairly well, but we are going to probably turn this boat around a little bit and end up with some dryness in parts of the lower most Midwest, the Delta and the interior parts of the Southeastern states as we get into the summer season,” Lerner says.

Diminishing Likelihood of Summer Drought?
Lerner thinks the official summer outlook could soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central High Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior Southeastern states.

The official summer outlook may soon be adjusted to bring a little more rain into the west-central high Plains and reduce some of the rain in the lowermost Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states.

(Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. )

“We’ll go through a short-term period where there is dryness around and some heat. That will occur in the latter part of spring and early days of summer. Then I think we’ll shift things around so that those areas start getting rain while the Delta and the lower Midwest start to dry out a little bit along with the central parts of the Plains,” he says.

What Does NOAA Say?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its three-month outlook earlier this spring, showing temperatures in New England and over the Four Corners region of the country are likely to be 50% to 60% above normal in May, June and July of 2025.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

As far as precipitation, NOAA still thinks the West could see below-normal moisture. The area with a higher chance of rain is the entire East Coast.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

You can watch the full discussion with Lerner on the video from U.S. Farm Report.

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No, You Aren’t Crazy: It Is The Windiest Start To Spring In 50 Years

This Winter's Lack of Snow Cover Could Spell Trouble for Drought in These Areas

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:02:44 GMT

It was the winter that wasn’t for some areas of the U.S. Farmers located in the upper Plains, northern Plains and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, they experienced the winter that wasn’t, now sitting 10" to 30" short on normal snowfall.

It’s been the “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to moisture. April started with monsoon rains that brought flooding all the way from southern and eastern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley. According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, some of those areas saw their worst flooding since the spring of 1997.

“Some of these bottom lands and low lands that are filled with pastures and normally planted to crops, we’re going lose that, or we’re going to have to wait a long time to plant that this year. So, there’s certainly an impact with this early April flooding on top of the mid February flooding across the same general area,” Rippey says.

Observed flooding map

(NOAA )

While there’s too much moisture in the South, which is delaying planting for some, the lack of snow and moisture in the northern tier of states is bringing an early start to planting this year.

Rippey says if you draw a line just north of Kansas City directly east to Washington D.C., the area above that line is where he’s concerned about the lack of snow and what it means for soil moisture this spring.

“Pretty much folks north of theNorthern Plains, upper Midwest and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, as much as 10" to 30" short,” Rippey says. “That’s a concern for those areas heading into the spring because they depend on melting snow to provide soil moisture in the spring for newly planted crops. So, if we were to have a dry spring and summer on top of that nearly snowless winter, that is where we get into concerns for drought, expansion or intensification heading into the heart of the growing season.”

Season-to-date snowfall maps shows just how dry it’s been across the northern tier of states.

(Brad Rippey/USDA )

Rippey points to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , which shows elevated drought coverage compared to normal, in areas of Southern California into Texas. There’s also a second area of drought across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest that’s drawing his attention, which is the area that had very little snow over the winter.

“I think it’s really those two Western drought areas which have almost merged at this point where we do have big concerns for drought heading into the growing season,” Rippey says.

The latest map shows three main pockets of drought across the U.S.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

The National Weather Service Outlook (NOAA) seasonal outlook for May, June and July shows that stark line for moisture could continue.

“The precipitation outlook, unfortunately, shows odds are tilting toward dryness in a lot of the north central and northwestern United States. So, picture that fairly snow-less winter and then a potentially dry summer. Could that drought expand into the upper Midwest and the western Corn Belt? Yes, it certainly could. That’s one real area of agricultural concern for the summer of 2025,” Rippey says.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

Rippey says areas of the country already dealing with dryness and drought are also areas that could struggle to see moisture May through July, according to NOAA.

“It looks like that haves and have nots may continue as you see that wet pattern across the East and hopefully a decent monsoon in the Southwest, but we’re gonna have to wait until July for that to move in,” Rippey says.

As for NOAA’s outlook on temperatures, the agency is forecasting much of the U.S. will see above-normal temperatures, with a pocket hovering over the four corners region in the bullseye for extreme heat.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 21:12:49 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

There Are New, Early Signs of Ag Sector Financial Pressure

Tue, 13 Aug 2024 17:19:19 GMT

Agricultural credit conditions in the Tenth Federal Reserve District tightened in the second quarter of 2024 due to declining farm income, lower crop prices, and high production costs. Farm incomes continued to weaken, particularly in crop-heavy states like Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, while cattle prices provided some support. Farm borrower liquidity declined, and loan demand increased sharply, but repayment rates fell, indicating growing financial pressure on farmers.

Farm income was lower in all states, but the retraction remained especially pronounced in areas more impacted by low crop prices. The index of farm income was lower in Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, where crops make up a larger share of farm revenues (Chart 2). After strengthening last quarter, farm income in the Mountain States and Oklahoma declined in the second quarter as 30% of lenders in those states reported lower farm income than a year ago.

Farm income by state

(Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

Despite these challenges, agricultural credit stress remained limited, though signs of financial strain are emerging. Interest rates on farm loans stayed relatively high, and farmland values grew more slowly, with ranchland values showing relative strength. Lenders expect land values to stabilize, with some anticipating further declines in cropland values and increases in ranchland values. Overall, the agricultural sector is experiencing modest financial deterioration amid ongoing economic pressures.

Banker Comments Q2 2024

“Beef producers have experienced good margins over the last 12-18 months, but increasing replacement costs and interest costs will reduce margins moving forward.”– Kansas

“Lower grain prices and continued drought are causing stress.”– Kansas

“Inflation has increased family living expenses for our producers. Lower crop prices compared to a year ago is also worrisome to farmers in the area but continued high livestock prices have helped our cattle producers.”– Kansas

“Inflation is having a substantial effect on family living. Equipment upgrades and new purchases are a rare conversation with stressed cash flows.”– Missouri

“We expect profit margins to be reduced in the row crop sector while we should see significant improvement in profit margins in the cattle sector.”– Missouri

“The cattle market has provided much needed profit for cattle producers, but expansion and replacements have a lot of risk for borrower and lenders if a correction is to take place in the near future.”– Missouri

“We are seeing quite a few of our farm lines of credit approaching their max already, which would be a few months earlier than normal.”– Nebraska

“Inflation is keeping household spending higher, liquidity took a hit and we have seen some refinancing needed against land, but land prices are still high even with higher interest rates.”– Nebraska

“Interest rates and commodity prices and primary concerns in our area.”– Nebraska

“If cattle prices maintain, cattle producers will be okay until stockers are purchased, but if cattle prices deteriorate, it could be ugly. Crop farmers with low prices are hurting and yields were all over the spectrum.” – Oklahoma

“Cost of living is increasing significantly, and equipment and parts cost are increasing significantly.” - Oklahoma

“Higher rates are straining farmers cash flow and ability to operate with increasing input costs.” - Oklahoma

The Canadian Wildfires Never Fully Died Down In 2023, And That's Why They're Back With A Vengeance Now

Wed, 22 May 2024 18:07:03 GMT

The wrath of wildfires is something Canada knows all too well. After a historic season, 2024 is off to an active start with some fire forecasters saying this year’s wildfire threat could rival 2023.

“2023 in Canada was a historic wildfire season by many means. We absolutely shattered all records. Millions upon millions of acres of forests were burnt,” says Matt MacDonald, the lead fire weather forecaster for the B.C. Wildfire Service.

MacDonald says those blazes burned across the country–from coast to coast, top to bottom.

“All 13 provinces and territories has significant wildfire on the landscape. And particularly here in western Canada and British Columbia, 1.8 million acres were burned last season,” says MacDonald. “So, it was a tremendous ground-shattering year. And we’re hoping we don’t see that again this year.”

(Farm Journal)

Dormant Threat Under The Snow

He’s hopeful 2024 doesn’t see a repeat, however this year’s wildfire season is already off to a fierce and early start much of that due to fires leftover from 2023.

“We’re already off to a busier start than we were last year, primarily due to these holdover fires. It’s one thing to have the drought to have the dry fuels. But at least last year, we were waiting for that ignition, whereas this year, the ignition is already there. Those fires actually never went away. They just kind of went dormant under the snow.

MacDonald says the wildfire season in 2023 lasted unusually long, not dying down until early November.

“And then finally, we put snow on the landscape and there’s nothing like snow to calm a fire. But what ends up happening is these fires continue to smolder, believe it or not below the snow,” says MacDonald. “So, while it may appear white on the landscape, these fires continue to burn at root bulbs into what we call the duff layer, which is the top foot or so of soil.

He says scientists were already detecting heat signals even before the snow melted.

“And sure enough, the snow melted, we put a little bit of wind on these holdover fires, and just earlier this week we had a cold front push through the northern part of the province. The explosive growth at which these fires came back to life was truly incredible,” says MacDonald.

What’s happened in just a week’s time is astonishing. Tens of thousands of acres are scorched from a fire in British Columbia. The province of Manitoba is fighting a massive blaze that had burned more than 86,000 thousand acres late last week.

While part of the problem is fires left over from 2023, the bigger issue is a multi-year drought continuing to fuel the blazes.

“The drought is very real. It’s very, very deep. And it’s very persistent,” MacDonald explains. “So, once we get fire on the landscape, it really digs in becomes difficult to control and to respond to. And then we just end up with these massive configurations, you know, fires that grow into 10s of 1000s, and even hundreds of 1000s of acres per fire.”

(Farm Journal)

MacDonald says in British Columbia, 122 wildfires are on the landscape today, 8% of which are out of control as forecasters brace for more blazes this year.

“June is really that critical month for us will really determine, you know, the severity of our fire season. But again, this this drought is just so deep and persistent that it’s hard to think you know, a few weeks, even a month worth of rain is going to wash away all our problems. I think we’re in for another act of fire season here in 2024,” he adds.

The wildfires are already causing air quality concerns in the Plains and Midwest. The fires triggered air quality alerts across the U.S. starting last week.

The Smoke Effect on Crop Yields

The wildfire smoke was a constant issue most of the summer last year; however, there was a bright spot.

“Between corn and soybeans, corn is a little more susceptible to reductions in light. The wildfire smoke came through in June when we were experiencing drought-like conditions, and a lot of crops were experiencing stress at that point,” explains Dan Quinn, Purdue University extension corn specialist. “Those reductions in light reduced leaf surface temperatures and transpiration off those plants, which alleviated some of that stress.”

A Purdue report showed despite the temporary benefit in light reduction for crops, wildfire smoke still caused other harmful effects on crops and the environment. Since wildfires emit various air pollutants to form ozone when reacting with sunlight, Quinn said the ozone can cause harm to both corn and soybeans by entering the plant through the stomata, which burns plant tissue during respiration.

Summer Precipitation and Temperature Outlook

Is the U.S. in for another dry and hot summer in 2024? The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) just released its summer forecast, which is taking into account the transition from El Niño to La Niña. The CPC thinks El Niño will transition to the neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) next month. The summer outlook shows areas of the Plains and Western U.S. could see drought and dry conditions this summer, while much of the U.S. is expected to be warmer than normal.

(Farm Journal)

Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 14:44:00 GMT

The lingering effects of El Niño are still being felt in the U.S. The deluge of rains that fell across the mid-south, southeast and eastern U.S. are a reminder of that. However, one agricultural meteorologist says as El Niño fades, La Niña is already knocking at the door, and it could bring dryness to the southern U.S. The biggest question is now timing.

Just last fall, 40% of the lower 48 states were experiencing some form of drought. Today, that number is cut in half thanks to the impacts of El Niño.

“I feel like the transition to La Niña is already underway,” says Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist. “The thing about that is that the impacts often are not felt for many months.”

Rippey says just like the impacts of El Niño are still being felt four months after its peak, the claws of La Niña may not come until fall.

“Even if we make that transition into La Niña by, say, summertime, we’re likely not to feel the impacts of La Niña until we get into the autumn of 2024,” Rippey says. “So that’s good news for the growing season.”

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA), there’s now a 60% chance that La Niña will develop between June and August. NOAA still thinks by November 2024 to January 2025, there’s an 85% chance a La Niña will be in effect. The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to trend toward a La Niña phase, coming out of one of the strongest El Niño events on record since 1950.

Spring Forecast Barrier Makes it Hard to Predict

What could the transition mean for growing conditions in the U.S.? Eric Snodgrass, science fellow and principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the transition to La Niña is so hard to predict because of something atmospheric scientists call the spring forecast barrier.

“What we found is that our ability to predict well how El Niño is going to transition before you get through the month of May is pretty bad,” Snodgrass says. “Once we get into May and start to pay attention to those ocean temperature changes. We’ll be much better at predicting it, and a lot rides on it.”

Snodgrass looked back at history, and he says every time El Niño peaked at Christmas then faded until it was eventually replaced by La Niña in summer, it created a drought scenario in the Cotton Belt.

“Some of those years it was over Texas, some of those years it was in the Delta and some of those years it was in the Southeast,” Snodgrass says. “But if you keep drought down South, we tend to get ridge riding storms over the top of it in the Corn Belt, so the Cotton Belt gets the stress and the Corn Belt tends to do better.”

While it’s hard for Snodgrass to know what the summer will bring, he says there is one thing he’s confident in. That’s the temperature outlook.

“I do think one thing about this summer, and that is I’m expecting warmer than average temperatures,” Snodgrass says. “Most of that coming in warmer overnight lows though, based on what I know now. And a lot of that is predicated on the collapse of El Niño to neutral conditions and eventually into La Niña.”

Whether it turns into a hot and dry summer or a much wetter forecast than some are anticipating, Snodgrass says he was burned by weather prediction models last growing season, so he’s skeptical to rely on those again. However, he does think La Niña could open the door for a very active hurricane season this year.

The El Niño Effect: Is El Niño to Blame for the Historic Heat and Drought that Gripped the U.S. in 2023?

Tue, 02 Jan 2024 22:10:01 GMT

2023 was a year full of weather impacts on crops and livestock. From the intense heat in the South to the drought that parked itself across the South and Midwest, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says those are the two weather events that stole headlines this past year.

“When we look back at 2023, I’m actually going to break heat and drought into two separate categories,” says Rippey. “Really, when you look at the extreme heat this past year, it was focused across the deep South from Arizona to Florida, and pretty much everywhere in between. And that was certainly a huge weather story that affected parts of the cotton belt.”

From wiping out a large part of the cotton crop in west Texas to hitting sugar cane production in Louisiana, Rippey says nearly the entire deep South saw impacts of the year’s extreme heat.

“Of course, that came with drought in many cases. But when you look at these overall temperatures, the hottest summer on record and a lot of hottest months on record, that was a big story in the deep South,” says Rippey.

While other parts of the U.S. still had drought, in some areas it didn’t pack as big of a punch because it came without the heat. That was the case in much of the Corn Belt. The drought hit last year without the extended intense heat, which had a big impact on crops.

“We were very fortunate, especially in the Corn Belt, that we did not see the combination of extreme heat and drought at the same time. And that actually led to some of those better outcomes than expected for U.S. corn,” explains Rippey.

With USDA currently projecting the 2023 U.S. corn crop to be the largest on record, Rippey says the mild temperatures are what helped save the crops.

“You do see that things actually turned out better in states like Iowa. When you look at the rainfall numbers, they were abysmal, almost as dry as 2012. But then the heat just wasn’t there. And today’s varieties are little bit more tolerant of drought and heat. And the outcome was a little better than we expected,” says Rippey.

It wasn’t all good news. While crop yields turned out better than expected for some farmers, the lack of moisture continued to dwindle grazing conditions and hay stocks in 2023. Those created additional hurdles in rebuilding the shrinking U.S. cattle herd.

So, what was the culprit that caused the intense heat that suffocated the South during the summer months? Rippey says while it’s still being studied, he thinks it’s tied to one major weather event in 2023, in particular.

“I will go out on a limb and say that that may have been an early sneak attack from El Niño ,” says Rippey. “The reason I say that is that because we did have an early onset El Niño. It was pretty much in place by late spring, early summer. It’s pretty consistent with El Niño to have a big ridge of high pressure that comes out of Central America. And at times, we’ve seen it before, that does sometimes extend all the way into the southern tier of the United States.”

He says El Niño can also be tied to the shipping crisis that wreaked havoc on exports in 2023, causing massive shipping delays, as well as forcing shippers to carry lighter loads.

“And certainly what happened in Mexico and parts of Central America, think about the Central American drought that’s causing shipping problems in the Panama Canal. A lot of that, I think, could be tied to the heat in the atmosphere related to the early onset El Niño,” says Rippey.

According to Rippey, the drought in the Midwest can be attributed to the blocking high pressure that wouldn’t budge across Canada this past spring, summer or fall.

“The U.S. Midwest happened to be on the southern end of a lot of that high pressure over Canada. So when we think about that, think about the Canadian wildfires, all the smoke coming down. And we were just on the southern edge of that in the Midwest,” Rippey explains.

He says that, along with Northeasterly winds blocking moisture from the Gulf, is what caused the drought in the Midwest.

“At the same time, high pressure was far enough north that the heat and unusual warmth were actually focused across Canada. So, it wasn’t all that hot on the southern end of the high, but it was dry. And that led to that cool drought in the western Corn Belt,” he adds.

El Niño is still in play, as Rippey says El Niño made a splash once again to close out 2023.

“Now that El Niño has kicked in, it’s a strong event, it could be one of the strongest on record,” says Rippey. “We’re seeing that influence of El Niño starting to grab a hold of the reins of U.S. weather patterns. And that’s pretty normal and certainly should continue into early 2024.”

What’s on tap for 2024? Rippey forecasts the intense El Niño will lead to what he calls “pretty profound” impacts for the rest of the winter, and even into spring.

The Midwest is Set to Bake Under High Heat, Ag Meteorologists Now Worry About Severe Crop Damage

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 19:52:44 GMT

Portions of the Midwest could see the most challenging weather yet this year, and according to leading ag meteorologists, it’s creating more concerns for crop conditions. With heat forecast to top 100 degrees, along with little rain in this week’s forecast, crop conditions could deteriorate and the biggest risk in the western Corn Belt.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the stubborn high heat that’s been in the south and southwest will push its way into the Midwest by mid-week. The growing season has been far from perfect, but the overall crop condition ratings have seen steady improvements in July. Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed 55% of the U.S. corn crop and 50% of U.S. soybeans are covered in drought , an improvement from the 70% of corn and 63% of soybeans considered to be in drought the last week of June.

“It’s been a year full of challenges, no doubt about it,” says Rippey. “To this point, our biggest issues have been with the dryness that peaked in late June, and since then, we’ve seen considerable relief in some areas. But now for the first time, we’re combining that with the highest temperatures of the season to date.”

(Farm Journal)

A map from NOAA shows areas of the country in for the most extreme conditions compared to normal. The areas of the Midwest in yellow will see temps 7 to 10 degrees above normal.

“We could see widespread temperatures 100 degrees or higher throughout the western Corn Belt, extending eastward into the Mississippi Valley, and so the areas like Missouri where we really haven’t seen much recovery, if any, this heat on top of the dryness is coming in terrible time. We have corn and soybeans that are in the reproductive to filling stage, which it’s absolutely critical to keep temperatures and keep the moisture coming in during this time. We have neither in the driest areas right now,” says Rippey.

Western and Central Corn Belt Could Be Hit the Hardest

Rippey says the current forecasts indicate the extreme heat won’t initially hit the eastern Corn Belt. He says those areas will see temperatures in the mid-90s, but the western Corn Belt is bracing for consecutive days of temperatures above 100 degrees.

“You’ve got to really focus on that southwestern Corn Belt area as the biggest concern, because if you look at Missouri, and parts of neighboring states, we’ve got much deeper problems than this week’s heat; we have the moisture deficiency, and we have the drought issues that go back all the way into early spring,” he says. “And so where we have those subsoil and topsoil moisture shortages in the southwestern Corn Belt, overlaying that with 100 degree heat this week, that is going to be another blow for corn and soybeans in those areas.”

Heading into this week's Midwest heat wave, I wanted to post the current accumulated stress degree day map.

Calculated by adding degrees above 86°F for each day.
Example: if today is 95°F, 9 SDDs are accumulated

>140 SDDs could result in corn yield loss

Data: PRISM April 1 pic.twitter.com/ZdgxRfOEsH
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) July 24, 2023

With the heat that’s been parked in Texas and across the Southwest this month, Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, explains the duration of the heat is the biggest question. While the forecasts indicate the heat will last through the weekend, some weather models point to high temperatures returning next week.

“We’re going to be talking about temperatures that are going to be in the mid- to upper-90s as far north as Minnesota and the Dakotas, and then possibly, there’s going to be some pockets in Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, that are going to be over 100 degrees Fahrenheit,” says Snodgrass. “And so we always worry it’s going to last. Is this going to be a two-to-three-day event? Or is there going to be a 10-day event or a 30-day event?”

Hot with a Chance of Isolated Storms

He says the current thinking is the heat starts on Wednesday and then lasts through the weekend. There are some forecasts pointing to 105 degree heat in Iowa.

“But the question we have is, there’s humidity in this pattern. So, will there be storms that blow up in the middle of this and bring some cooler weather? That’s a possibility,” he says. “So, I would call it hot, hot with a lot of isolated storm activity. There’s going to be winners out of this, and there’s going to be a larger area that’s going to see some crop damage.”

Rippey points out there are areas that have seen more than adequate rain this summer, including Oklahoma.

“It’s incredible when you look at the last three months,” says Rippey. “We have seen upwards of 20 inches of rain in parts of Oklahoma, and even into southwestern Kansas. That is a year’s worth of rainfall in three months. And it’s also areas that were in some of the highest levels of drought just three months ago, at the end of the winter wheat season. So big turnaround for those folks.”

He says when you travel north and east of those areas, like into Missouri and Nebraska and even into Minnesota, that’s where the rains have been absent.

“We have seen a more recent trend toward drier weather in parts of the Upper Midwest. Minnesota really comes to mind as an area really short on rainfall the last several weeks,” says Rippey. “Even there, we’re going to see temperatures creeping up into the 90s to near 100 this week. The crops are a little bit later in that part of the world, as you move into the northern Corn Belt, which means we’re really at a critical time right now in terms of reproductive corn and blooming soybeans. If it turns cooler and wetter, soybeans still have a chance, but corn gets one chance to move through. So it’s really bad timing for upper Midwestern crops due to the heat this week, and the dryness that’s been developing the last several weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says the current forecast indicates the central Midwest and into the South and Southwest will miss out on the chance for rainfall.

“Even though the Midwest will see sporadic showers, amounts will generally not be enough to keep up with high temperatures and peak crop-moisture demand. This could lead to increased stress on corn and soybeans, especially in hotter and more significantly drought-affected areas of the western Corn Belt,” Rippey says.

(Farm Journal)

Snodgrass says Climate Prediction Center (CPC) August through October forecast indicates the ridge, which is causing the high heat to enter the Midwest this week, gets shoved back West in August, which will keep the Midwest much cooler in August. CPC also thinks El Nino takes over and it turns wet, but Snodgrass says he’s not sold on that forecast, as all the weather models still have conflicting forecasts.

“I feel like we’ve been punched in the mouth twice. And if there’s a third punch, maybe it’s, you know, longer duration into early August, and I think we’re going to see some possible significant yield loss. But if storms cascade over the top of it, and the ridge goes back to Arizona, then we will be talking about busting bins with yield,” Snodgrass adds.

Midwest Rains Not Enough to Break Long-Term Drought, 67% of Corn Still Rooted in Drought

Thu, 06 Jul 2023 15:02:30 GMT

Widespread rains finally swept across the Midwest over the past week, but they didn’t put much of a dent into the overall U.S. drought picture with drought percentages still resembling 2012. A slight change in the high-pressure block that’s led to increasing drought conditions this summer could start to give way to more rains in parts of the Corn Belt. However, one meteorologist warns the northern Corn Belt is forecast to see little relief over the next seven days.

The National Drought Mitigation Center now estimates 67% of the U.S. corn crop and 60% of soybeans are still considered to be in drought. That’s a slight improvement from last week , when 70% of corn and 63% of soybeans were covered by drought, but the improvements were minimal at a time when more of the corn crop is starting to tassel.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. corn-in-drought percentage was actually a little higher on November 1, 2022, when 71% of the crop was considered to be in drought. But he points out that was after most of the crop had been harvested. Today, crop conditions are drawing comparisons to 1988, but the drought monitor is showing similarities to 2012 with a few key differences.

“The last time more corn was in drought during the heart of the growing season was, as you might expect, the summer of 2012,” says Rippey. “That year, the U.S. corn production area in drought was at or above 70% each week from July 10 through the end of the calendar year.”

Rippey says 2012 saw more of the U.S soybean crop in drought, but those impacts showed up later in the season.

“A greater percentage of U.S. soybeans were in drought several weeks in late 2022, with a peak of 71% on October 25 and November 1. Of course, this was also after many of the soybeans were harvested,” he says.

Nationally, the latest drought monitor shows minimal improvements nationwide. The amount of the country considered abnormally dry now sits at 87%, nearly a 3-point improvement. D1 (moderate drought) is still parked over 63% of the U.S., less than a point better than last week. D2 (severe drought) is virtually unchanged.

What Will it Take to Break the Drought?

With the drought building up over several months, Rippey points out it will take significantly more rain to see improvements.

“Significant rainfall deficits built up in May and June,” says Rippey. “Recent rains are helping, but normal weekly Midwestern rainfall this time of year is roughly 1 to 1 1/3 inches per week. The two-week Drought Monitor change map shows patchy areas with improvement, mainly in the southern and eastern Corn Belt.”

(Farm Journal)

The latest look at drought across the Midwest shows improvements along the Iowa/Missouri border, eastern and central Illinois, and southern Indiana. Pockets of improvement also fell across northern Texas, southwest Colorado, northern Kentucky and central Ohio.

Portions of Nebraska also saw rain, but 25% of the state is still considered to be in D3 (exceptional drought).

Other areas of the Midwest saw drought grow more severe, including across Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, eastern Kansas and southern Missouri.

More Rain Relief on the Way?

While extremely variable, rains are starting to fall across more of the Midwest. The change is aided by a slight change in the high-pressure block, according to Rippey.

“There have been subtle changes in the North American weather pattern. There is still a high-pressure block, but it has shifted further north and east and is currently centered between Canada and Greenland. That is allowing some cool, dry air to push southward from northern and central Canada,” he says.

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says a strong ridge of high pressure is still in place across the southern tier of the U.S., which will create a battle between cool and warm air.

“Over the next week or so, the heaviest rain will fall near the boundary between the cool Canadian air and the hot air across the nation’s southern tier,” says Rippey. “Recent forecasts are showing the most significant rain falling a bit further south than earlier expectations, which could leave parts of the Midwest – especially the northern Corn Belt – with little rain over the next seven days.”

Game Changer for Soybeans? USDA Ignites Fireworks in the Markets With Two Major Acreage Surprises

Sat, 01 Jul 2023 01:33:09 GMT

USDA released a few big surprises in the June acreage report , including a spike in corn acres and a large reduction in soybean acres. The agency also forecasts grain stocks below trade expectations. The markets had a lot of news to digest on Friday between the report news and the rain and derecho damage across the Corn Belt , but analysts called Friday’s reports a “game changer” for soybeans.

According to USDA, farmers made a big cut to their intended soybean acreage. USDA Jun acreage report shows farmers planted 83.5 million acres of soybeans, a large reduction from the the 87.51-million-acre intention in March. This year’s planted acreage for soybeans is 5% below last year.

The other big surprise came in corn. USDA says farmers planted 94.1 million acres of corn this year, which is up from the 91.9 million acres reported in the 2023 Prospective Plantings report in March. The 94.1 million acres planted is also 6% higher than what farmers planted in 2022.

Other acreage highlights include:

Cotton Acres: 11.1 million, down from 11.3 million reported in USDA’s March planting intentions survey, a 19% reduction from 2022
Wheat Acres: 49.6 million acres, slightly lower than the 49.9 million acres in March, a 9% increase from last year

(Farm Journal)

A Major Market Game Changer

The biggest surprise was in soybeans, with analysts saying this could change the course for soybean prices.

“It’s an absolute game changer in regard to the soybean balance sheets,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “What it means it gives you very, very little room for error in regard to yield and production given this lower acreage number. And on the flip side, we saw a higher corn acreage number that went up to 94.1 from 92, even in March. So it was it was a big divergence in the markets sell off in corn on a higher acreage number and a sharp rally in soybeans on a drastically lower acreage number.”

Mark Gold of StoneX Group says this year proves when April weather is dry, farmers will plant more corn.

“It’s just the corn acres going up as much as they did wasn’t that big of a surprise. It’s the beans coming down,” says Gold. “That was the bigger surprise. And now you’re left with very tight carry outs on the beans. And this is assuming the government’s right on yield at 181.5 bu. per acre on corn and 52 [bu. per acre] on beans. And I don’t believe we’re near there, even with the rains that we’ve seen.”

Tighter Stocks Theme Continues in June Report

USDA’s March Grain Stocks report showed tighter stocks, which stole headlines. That theme continued Friday, with USDA’s estimates coming in lower than what the trade expected.

As of June 1, 2023, USDA shows the following adjustments in grain stocks:

Corn: 4.106 billion bushels, which is lower than the 4.35 billion at this time last year.
According to USDA, soybean stocks sit at 796 million bushels, also lower than the 968 million in June 2022.
Wheat stocks are projected at 580 million bushels, lower than the 698 million a year ago.

(Farm Journal)

Vaclavik says he doesn’t view the grain stocks report alone as bullish or bearish, but when you step back and look at the larger picture, demand is still an issue, but the supply story is changing after Friday’s reports.

“New crop demand for U.S. corn and U.S. soybeans is not good,” Vaclavik says. “The book of export sales is terrible. Ethanol production has not been where it needs to be. The one bright spot would be soybean crush, and we’re going to continue to set records there because of the crush expansion. But I think that as prices rise, especially in soybeans, you’ve probably got to look at the demand side and you could this you could say for the corn balance sheet to USDA is in all likelihood overstating new crop demand for both of those crops on the balance sheets given what we know today.”

The Yield Debate Heats Up

USDA’s reports definitely caused some fireworks, but says traders will digest those reports in a couple days. Then, the focus is back on weather.

“I’ll tell you this, the yield number and the acreage numbers are going to be digest not not the yield number. But the acreage numbers that we saw today, they will be digested by the trade very quickly. It’ll take maybe another day or two. And we’re going to be on again trading weather and yield prospects,” says Vaclavik.

The other possible crop impact is the derecho that blasted across the Midwest on Thursday . While the system brought crop-saving rain, it also packed a punch of winds topping 100 mph. According to agronomist Ken Ferrie who lives in Heyworth, Illinois, he thinks the earlier planted corn will be impacted the most.

“April-planted corn is pushing tassels and trying to pollinate, so unfortunately, it’ll get hit the hardest because it’s hard for tasseled corn to stand back up; it’ll just curve at the top,” Ferrie told AgWeb’s Rhonda Brooks. “And that down that’s corn creates pollination problems. So, from a yield problem that’ll be the tough spot, and that’ll be the tougher stuff to harvest because it just won’t stand back up.”

Yesterday, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ tracked a destructive #derecho as it raced across the Midwest, causing widespread damage across several states. This visible imagery shows the bubbling clouds, and the satellite's Geostationary Lightning Mapper allowed us to see the frequent… pic.twitter.com/SvYbnuf5em
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) June 30, 2023

Ferrie points out farmers could have done without the wind, but the rains could be extremely beneficial for much of the Illinois crop. That’s as c rop conditions last week dropped to the lowest since 1988 . Gold says now it’s a debate of just how beneficial those rains were this week.

“Before we had these rains this week, we were looking at a corn yield of maybe maybe 174 bu. per acre or 175, somewhere in that range. I think he got to bump it up a little bit, because a lot of areas did get some rains without the damage. But we don’t know the derecho damage, we’ll have to see what the crop progresses on Monday, but I’m not sure it’s going to show all the damage by any stretch of the imagination. And the bottom line is, the corn yield, in my opinion can’t get anywhere near 181.5 [bu. per acre]. We’ve had rains, we’re gonna get more rains here this weekend. What is it a little bit too much too late. We’ll have to see. The crops are resilient. We know that.

Peter Meyer of S&P Global Commodity Insights says the rains this week will help, but he thinks damage has been done to the crops. He doesn’t think it’s as bad as 2012, but he sees some similarities to 1992.

“In 1992, conditions were lower than 2023 levels early in the season, but rebounded with early-July rains, resulting in a corn yield that was 8% above trend at the time while soybean yields outperformed trend by 10%,” says Meyer. “While the 2023 weather pattern has changed with the transition to an El Nino, U.S. corn and soybean acres are/were dry enough to require constant moisture at this point. 1992 was also an El Nino year but that El Nino started in the summer of 1991 and was already entrenched for 12 months. 1992 also saw on the wettest July’s on record, a tall task at this point.”

Before this week’s rains, an AgWeb poll showed growers were extremely concerned about yields. The poll found 61% of respondents are getting more worried by the day when it comes to corn yields. 25% aren’t sure. 15% say they are feeling good about current yield potential.

(Farm Journal)

There is more rain in the forecast for Illinois, as Ferrie points out, with the possible crop prospects improving now that they had the initial rain, even if it did come with high winds.

“That inch of water, many farmers would probably take the wind in the corn to get the water, because it looked like we weren’t going to get any of it, and suddenly our forecast has rain for the next five out of six days,” says Ferrie. “So, it kind of broke that bubble that was holding us in the drought.”

Wide Range of Yield Estimates in Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

Ahead of USDA’s updated look at planted acres in the June acreage report, a new survey of ag economists shows a wide range of yield estimates. The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , conducted by University of Missouri and Farm Journal, shows the average estimate by economists is below USDA’s current projection for all crops, except cotton.

The survey showed:

Corn: 178.68 bu. per acre versus 181.5 bu. per acre (USDA’s current estimate)
Soybeans: 51.06 bu. per acre versus 52 bu. per acre
Wheat: 44.47 bu. per acre versus 44.9 bu. per acre
Sorghum: 68.17 bu. per acre versus 69.2 bu. per acre
Cotton: 855.18 pounds versus 841 pounds

(Farm Journal)

Scott Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, points out the yield variation largely depends on upcoming weather, but the dry weather in June is creating a wide range of yield estimates this year.

“I think when you look at both corn and soybean acres, there wasn’t a lot of deviation from the Prospective Plantings report USDA came out with a few months ago, so we didn’t see a big change there,” Brown says. “On the yield side, there are certainly some differences. The average yield estimate, on the corn side from the survey was a little more than 178 bu. per acre, with a downside of 175 bu. Likewise on soybeans, that came in at about 51 bu. per acre. Both corn and soybeans are below where USDA currently sees yields. I will say those are going to change quickly as we look at weather and what’s occurred since the survey would have gone out roughly a week ago now.”

Economists also expect crop prices to decline this year and next; however, there is a wide range in estimates signaling volatility will continue.

The average corn price is estimated to hit $4.99 per bushel for the current crop year and $4.74 for 2024/2025. The high range of the estimate for this year is $6 per bushel, with a low of $4.25 per bushel. Soybeans are also expected to trend lower, with an average estimate of $12.52 per bushel this year. The high came in at $14 per bushel. The low estimate was $10.85 per bushel. The average estimate for 2024/2025 is $11.90 per bushel.

Wheat prices are estimated to average $7.63 per bushel this year, with a low of $7 and a high of $8.49. The average estimate for wheat prices in 2024/2025 is $7.10 per bushel, with a high of $8 and a low of $6.49.

Related Stories:

USDA Reports Hold Bullish Surprise for Beans, But Bearish for Corn

Derecho Packs Punch Of 100 MPH Winds, Flattens Cornfields and Crushes Grain Bins Across the Midwest

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

Derecho Packs Punch of 100 MPH Winds, Flattens Cornfields and Crushes Grain Bins Across the Midwest

Fri, 30 Jun 2023 21:00:54 GMT

Hurricane-force winds swept through northern Missouri and Iowa and all the way east to Illinois and Indiana on Thursday. The derecho brought wind gusts up to 100 mph in places, flattening cornfields. The storm system also brought crucial rains. While it might not be enough to cure the drought, the rains could help rescue some of the drought-ravaged crops.

According to Accuweather, a derecho is a storm that brings a punch of at least 58 mph winds over the span of at least 400 miles. The storm on Thursday barreled across the Midwest, with some of hardest-hit states being Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. The storm then turned and went south, hitting Tennessee.

Yesterday, @NOAA's #GOESEast 🛰️ tracked a destructive #derecho as it raced across the Midwest, causing widespread damage across several states. This visible imagery shows the bubbling clouds, and the satellite's Geostationary Lightning Mapper allowed us to see the frequent… pic.twitter.com/SvYbnuf5em
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) June 30, 2023

Ken Ferrie , owner of Crop-Tech Consulting, was in the middle of the storm. He spoke to AgWeb’s Rhonda Brooks about potential damage, estimating the derecho crossed at least two-thirds of Illinois.

“It’s pretty widespread,” says Ferrie who lives in Heyworth, Ill., just south of Bloomington. “It hit between 12:30 p.m. to 1 p.m. yesterday.”

The storm also brought more than an inch of much-needed rain, which may have saved many of the Illinois corn and soybean crops. Ferrie says there is quite a bit of cleanup that will need to take place with down trees and other damage, and he’s still trying to assess the impact on the crops.

“I have not seen any corn snapped like the derecho in Iowa where crops were just snapped and flat, but there’s a lot of corn laying over,” says Ferrie.

(Farm Journal)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the storm was widespread, impacting an area from the Central Great Plains and northern Missouri, all the way to the Tennessee River Valley.

“The derecho on June 29th was oddly reminiscent of the massive derecho that struck the Midwest on August 10, 2020,” he says. “Now the aerial extent was not quite as large as the August 2020 events and the winds were not quite as high. But nevertheless, we did see widespread 60 to 100 mph winds emerging early in the day on the 29th.”

Brad Rippey discusses the scope and possible scale of damage caused by the derecho this week.

Rippey says the timing of the storm could also be a key factor in determining how much damage it caused to crops.

“We’re not expecting to see the large scale impact that we saw compared to August 2020, partly because it’s earlier in the growing season crops are not as high and susceptible to damage,” says Rippey. “And also just the fact that winds weren’t quite as high and the areal extent wasn’t as great. Still, though, another blow for producers already reeling from drought now contending with the effects of a significant windstorm that blew through the area on June 29th.”

Earlier Planted Corn Hit the Hardest

Ferrie drove across parts of Illinois and into Iowa on Friday, and says he thinks the earlier planted corn is what will be impacted the most from the powerful storm this week.

“April-planted corn is pushing tassels and trying to pollinate, so unfortunately, it’ll get hit the hardest because it’s hard for tasseled corn to stand back up; it’ll just curve at the top,” says Ferrie. “And that down corn creates pollination problems. So, from a yield problem that’ll be the tough spot, and that’ll be the tougher stuff to harvest because it just won’t stand back up.”

First time in my life I’ve pulled up to my parents place and not seen the grain leg standing. The storm hit hard today, but it’s wild in that the corn didn’t get mangled any worse than it did. No one got hurt which is the main thing. pic.twitter.com/Kg0hVyKi5V
— Matthew Bennett (@chief321) June 29, 2023

He says the May-planted corn will still have time to stand back up and recover, but he also points out the later planted corn is seeing more impacts from the drought in Illinois. The corn that farmers planted later didn’t establish good roots as it has seen little to no rain since planting. That made the corn more vulnerable to wind damage.

“We have a lot of acres that are getting what I call restless corn syndrome and struggling to get crown roots made. And that stuff isn’t pollinating. It’s the later planted crop that’s probably some of the worst,” says Ferrie.

Storm damage in Illinois from today. Any damage to your farm? pic.twitter.com/RWOHDjPQ2U
— IL Corn (@ilcorn) June 29, 2023

While the wind may impact yields and create harvest issues for some of the crops, the water came at a crucial time, especially in Illinois.

“That inch of water, many farmers would probably take the wind in the corn to get the water, because it looked like we weren’t going to get any of it, and suddenly our forecast has rain for the next five out of six days,” says Ferrie. “So, it kind of broke that bubble that was holding us in the drought.”

(Farm Journal)

Soybeans weren’t spared from damage either, but Ferrie says the drink of water will also be a boost for those fields. He reports there are even soybean fields laid over from the derecho winds on Thursday.

Indiana also reported high winds, with gusts reaching 70 mph at Indianapolis International Airport. Indiana farm fields were dealt with derecho damage this week, too. Photos show corn blown over by the wind, with the later planted corn holding up better than what was planted earlier in the season this year.

Photo Courtesy: Joelle Orem, Russiaville, Indiana

Crop Comments: How do crops look in your area? Post a comment or photo in Crop Comments.

Recent Rains Didn't Put a Dent in the Midwest Drought, 70% of U.S. Corn Crop Now Hit by Drought

Thu, 29 Jun 2023 17:30:05 GMT

It’s now estimated 70% of the U.S. corn crop and 63% of soybeans across the U.S. are covered in drought. While the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought expanded across Illinois and Indiana over the past seven days, increased chances of rain across the Corn Belt, including those two states, could hit at a critical time.

National Drought Mitigation Center keeps track of the percentage of growing area affected by drought. Last week, 64% of corn and 57% of soybeans were impacted by drought . This week’s updated look showed a 6-point expansion for both corn and soybeans.

Even with rains sweeping the Northern Corn Belt last weekend, the latest drought monitor shows drought continues to spread across Illinois. The Monitor shows D2 (Severe Drought) conditions, taking a considerable jump in Illinois this week. Severe drought covers nearly 59% of the state, up 28 percentage points in just a week. The amount of the state considered abnormally dry is 92%, up 10 points in a week.

Missouri is also seeing the impacts of drought take a toll across the state. D3 (Exceptional Drought) spans across nearly 20% of the state, up from 15.7% last week. D2 (Severe Drought) is covering more than half of the state, close to a 10-point spike in a week.

Across the entire Midwest, the Drought Monitor shows:

64.71% of the Midwest is D1/Abnormally Dry, a 6 point increase 64.71, was 58.49
24.65 is D2, severe drought, up nearly 9 points
D3 (Exceptional Drought) increased to 3.52%, up from 2.59% last week

(Farm Journal)

According to the authors of this week’s drought update, there were widespread changes across the U.S., including heavy rains in the Northeast.

“The Midwest and east-central Great Plains saw mostly worsening conditions and widespread crop stress and low streamflows after another week of mostly dry weather. A mix of improvements and degradations occurred in Texas, where recent precipitation amounts have varied widely. The northern Great Plains received widespread heavy rainfall this week, leading to large-scale improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness. In the Pacific Northwest, a few areas saw above-normal precipitation and improving conditions, but larger parts of the region saw increasing evaporative demand, continued dry weather and lowering streamflows, leading to worsening conditions.”

The authors noted heavy rains hit parts of Ohio and Kentucky, which did improve long-term drought, but much of the region also saw conditions worsen, including in central Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, southwest Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota and southeast Iowa.

“Almost completely dry weather in Missouri and the southern two-thirds of Illinois led to widespread degradations, where streamflow and soil moisture continued to decrease amid mounting precipitation deficits, creating potential problems for corn and soybean production this growing season,” the Drought Monitor stated this week. “In Missouri, cold weather in December and April have combined with the ongoing drought to lead to a 70% reduction in wine production. Hay production in Missouri was also reported to be one-third of normal. In southeast Iowa, producers reported rolling corn leaves and stunted soybean plants. In the Upper Midwest states, strawberry production was also struggling.”

According to USDA-NASS , corn condition ratings across the U.S. dropped to only 50% in good to excellent condition this week. The five-point decline in a week’s time means this year’s corn crop has only been rated worse one other time in history: 1988.

That’s also a change from last week , when both 1992 and 1988 held the record for lower ratings.

Heading into the weekend, farmers across key areas of the Corn Belt hoped for rain. Instead, the system stayed north, producing decent rainfall for parts of South Dakota, Iowa and northern Illinois. It wasn’t enough to save the corn crop, with more weekly drops in the following states:

Illinois: 26% good to excellent, down 10 points
Indiana: 47%, down 9 points
Iowa: 56%, down 3 pointes
Missouri: 31, down 12 points
Nebraska: 57%, down 2 points
South Dakota, 47%, down 1 point

Drought Sprouts Corn Yield Concerns

The drought is stirring up debate on the impact on overall crop production and yield across the U.S. A recent AgWeb found 61% of respondents are getting more worried by the day when it comes to corn yields. 25% aren’t sure. 15% say they are feeling good about current yield potential.

(Farm Journal)

USDA currently has a 181.5 bu. per acre national yield penciled into their report. The next WASDE will be released be released July 12th, which will be the next opportunity to update its yield forecast.

It’s still early enough for the nation’s soybean crop to recover with any rains over the next couple of months, but USDA-NASS field reporters are also growing less optimistic about the U.S. soybean crop. Soybean crop condition ratings are currently the second-worst on record, only behind 1988, with 51% of the crop rated good to excellent. That’s a three-point drop in a week.

Better Chances of Rain on the Way

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says topsoil moisture is still an issue, especially across Illinois and Missouri that saw very little rain in the storm system that swept the Corn Belt last weekend. However, he does think there are better chances of rain on the way for areas of the Midwest.

“As we move through the rest of this week and into the weekend, we have a little bit of good news for parts of the Corn Belt, and that is the block that has been dominating weather patterns across the Midwest for the better part of two months, has shown enough weakness to allow some moisture and energy to break through and work its way across the Midwest,” says Rippey. “Now as we move through the next five days, it looks like the best opportunity for drought easing rainfall will occur generally across the southern part of the Corn Belt. So a band along an axis stretching from the central Great Plains into the Ohio Valley, that general area, which does include some of our driest areas in northern Missouri and Illinois, could see as much as one to three inches of rain.”

He says the rain totals will be highly variable just due to the nature of precipitation this time of year.

“But at least there is a promise as we head into reproduction for corn and soybeans, of getting some one to three inch rainfall totals across the southern tier of the Corn Belt,” he says.

Rippey says it’s also key to keep in mind the moisture deficit many fields are facing, which means one to three inches of rain sounds like a dream of a forecast, but it won’t have a dramatic change on the drought that continues to park itself and grow deeper in parts of the Midwest.

He says more rains are needed at such a crucial time of the production cycle, especially considering farmers in the Midwest typically see 1 to 1 1/3 inches of rain every week. He points out that moisture is needed to aid the crop during such a critical time of the crop production cycle.

ROLL CALL: How do crops look in your area? Post a comment or photo in Crop Comments.

Drought Watch: 64% of U.S. Corn Crop Now Covered by Drought

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 18:01:09 GMT

Drought continues to be a major story for farmers this year, and new data shows drought conditions are deepening across the Midwest. According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, 64% of the corn crop and 57% of the soybean crop across the U.S. are now covered in drought. That’s a sizable jump in just a week , which is reflected in the ongoing decline in crop conditions.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday, despite near to below normal temperatures, a lack of rainfall means drought conditions are expanding across the Midwest:

D1 (Moderate Drought) jumped 9.77 points to 58.49%
D2 (Severe Drought) increased 7.95 points to 15.91%
D3 (Extreme Drought) inched up 1.38 points, to 2.59%

(Farm Journal)

“As a result, short-term (30 to 90 day) dryness continued to worsen, leading to widespread deterioration,” the weekly monitor states. “The exception to this was across the eastern Corn Belt and into parts of Kentucky, where seven-day rainfall totals helped to improve drought conditions, or at least halt further degradation. Ohio is the greatest beneficiary of the heavy rains this week and saw the most improvement, with several areas receiving more than 2" of rainfall.”

Weekly Condition Ratings See Largest Drop to Lowest in 30 Years

The weekly decline in USDA-NASS crop progress report has been significant, and this week also saw notable drops. Nationally, USDA-NASS says 55% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent. Lance Honig, NASS Crops Branch Chief, says there are only two years in history where condition ratings have been lower for this week: 1992, when 52% of the crop was rated good to excellent and 1988 with a 37% good to excellent rating.

(Farm Journal)

When comparing the weekly drop in ratings, Honig says the a six-point drop in U.S. corn condition ratings marks the largest drop in ratings for this week since 2007.

“Generally speaking, we’ve seen some declines really all along this year since ratings started several weeks ago,” Honig says. “It’s not terribly uncommon to start high and see a bit of a decline those first few weeks, but the magnitude of decline that we’ve seen kind of week after week has been a little bit greater than what we would normally expect to see. In fact, just this past week, in particular, nationally it doesn’t always seem like that much to see a five or six percentage point drop in your good to excellent rating, but generally speaking, we don’t see that much nationally in just a week’s time. And so it’s not unheard of, but it’s certainly not terribly common.”

When you break the ratings down state-by-state, Honig points out there were some considerable drops specifically in several of the key Corn Belt states, and if you compare the week of June 19 to the same point in history, you have to go back 30 years to find declines this significant.

According to Honig, the most significant drops in ratings include:

Illinois: down 12 points; only 2007 larger (down 21 points) / at 36%; only 1992 lower (28%)
Iowa: down 11 points; largest drop since 1991 / at 59%; 2021 was 56%
Wisconsin: down 16 points; largest drop for this week / at 50%; only lower in 1992 (37%) and 1993 (28%)
North Dakota: down 14 points; largest drop for this week
South Dakota: down 12 points; largest drop since 1993 / at 48%; only lower in 2021 (34%)

Soybeans Slip

Nationally, the soybean crop is 54% good to excellent, and Honig says there are only two years where soybean conditions were rated lower for this week: 1992 at 51% good to excellent and 1988 where 23% of the crop was in the top two categories.

Honig says the soybean crop ratings dropped five points in one week, the largest drop for this week since 2007.

The state-by-state breakdown by Honig shows:

Illinois: down 14 points; largest drop since 2007 (down 15 points) / at 33%; only lower in 1992 (30%)
Iowa: down 10 points; largest drop since 1998 (down 14 points) / at 56%; lowest since 2008 (49%)
Wisconsin: down 10 points; largest drop since 2008 (down 14 points) / at 52%; only lower in 2013 (50%)
North Dakota: down 11 points; largest drop / at 53%; lower in 2021 (23%) and 2002 (52%)
South Dakota: down 11 points; only larger drop in 2021 (down 12 points) / at 50%; lower in 2021 (33%) and 2017 (48%)

(Farm Journal)

Honig says especially with soybeans, it’s important to remember rains could still have a big impact on the crop.

Subsoil Moisture Shows Desperate Need for Rain

The weekly Crop Progress report also tracks subsoil moisture, showing the moisture is severely depleted across some Corn Belt states. In Illinois, 83% of the subsoil is considered short to very short of moisture. In Michigan, the reading is 89%.

(Farm Journal)

It will take more than one rain to replenish the subsoil moisture, but rains would help. And Honig says it’s not time to declare the U.S. corn and soybean crop a disaster yet.

“You can have a lot of problems early, and certainly it has an impact. I don’t want to suggest that having problems early doesn’t have an impact, but you still got time to make up for some of these impacts or to offset some of these impacts,” Honig says. “And even if it wasn’t just the making up aspect of it, there are certain stages of development that just really need moisture, a lot more. And we’re not at that stage yet.”

Honig says the stage is set for potential production problems, and it’s something NASS will watch closely from week to week.

Production Problems in the Eastern Corn Belt? A Look at NOAA's New Summer Drought Outlook

Mon, 19 Jun 2023 20:05:48 GMT

Conditions are dry across the Corn Belt, and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) seasonal drought outlook shows the eastern Corn Belt could continue to get drier through the summer months.

The updated Seasonal Drought Monitor was just released late last week and provides a snapshot of likely conditions from June 15 through September 30. This updated Monitor indicates dryness and drought will continue to expand across eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

NOAA also sees drought conditions developing across more of Illinois, northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan.

“Drier, warm conditions across the Northwest promoted some drought expansion across the Cascades and coastal Washington,” NOAA indicated in the outlook this week. “East of the Plains, a persistent blocking pattern promoted persistently below-normal rainfall, resulting in a rapid onset of drought and abnormal dryness across much of the Corn Belt, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”

What About El Nino?

NOAA officially declared the arrival of El Nino earlier this month , and as Drew Lerner of World Weather points out, there are mixed signals when it comes to moisture and El Nino, especially during the transition.

“There is a correlation with weak to moderate El Nino events and summer dryness in the eastern Midwest. I do have a little issue with that correlation, though, because it assumes El Nino is well-established and, in this case, we are still in the developmental stages of El Nino which might skew the data,” says Lerner. “So, in looking at two years, 1965 and 1972, in which we had a January La Nina and were in El Nino in either May or June the below-average precipitation bias was more in the heart of the Midwest during June and then it was whittled back by scattered showers and thunderstorms in July and more so in August, forcing the greater rainfall anomalies more into the eastern Midwest and southeastern states over time.”

Lerner says during the years, the improving precipitation bias did not end the moisture deficits, but it did provide some better rainfall for late reproducing crops – especially soybeans.

There are some positive developments in NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook. NOAA says the Southeast has much higher chances of rain in the short-term.

Widespread heavy rainfall is expected in the Southeast, which NOAA says would preclude short-term drought development there.

Good News for the Western Corn Belt

There is some good news. NOAA says more improvements look to be in store for the Western Corn Belt and Plains, with either improving or going away in eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and eastern Oklahoma.

While meteorologists expected some improvements in drought areas due to El Nino, Lerner says there’s one issue with forecasts earlier this year: The expected timing of El Nino.

“The predicted wetter biases that some meteorologists touted earlier this year were assuming that El Nino would be fully developed in the summer and, therefore, greater moisture would be available in the atmosphere,” says Lerner. “That will be more true for 2024 than 2023. There is also a problem with interpretation of the ‘wetter’ bias. El Nino events add moisture to the atmosphere, but they are not always the controlling weather feature, especially not in the mid-latitudes during the Northern Hemisphere summer. However, if the bias for the summer is already wet then El Nino can make it wetter. Similarly, if the summer is advertised to be drier and El Nino comes along it can make it less dry and improve crops which is what most of the trade thinks of when they think of El Nino.”

A Look at the Drought Picture Today

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the key takeaways from the drought monitor released last Thursday include:

Large sections of the Midwest have seen 1- to 3-category deterioration over the past month, with a few areas of severe drought (D2) appearing east of the Mississippi River.
In the western Corn Belt, of course, there are both long- and short-term drought issues, along with some pockets of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4).

Rippey says he’s also keeping a close eye on the heat and dryness expected this week.

“Currently, blocking high pressure remains in place at higher latitudes of North America,” says Rippey. “This blocking feature will only strengthen in coming days, reinforcing the unfavorably dry weather pattern across much of the Midwest.”

Is This a Repeat of 2012?

Even with shots of rain this past weekend, the storm system produced rainfall totals that were extremely sporadic. That also seems to be a theme so far this year. Farmers farther west reported more moisture than this in the eastern Corn Belt.

So, is this a repeat of 2012? Lerner says there is not a single good year to compare to as an analog year.

“I believe the melding of 1976, 1965 and 1972 can help tremendously,” says Lerner. “I also think 2005 should be looked at as well. 2012 should not be ignored since we are in worse moisture shape today than we were at this time in 2012, but the declining conditions that occurred in the balance of that year’s summer were dramatic and far more serious than we anticipated for this year. We should not have the heat we had in 2012, and that will make a big difference.”

Lerner points out that since planting occurred so quickly this year, which was due to the dry conditions and few rain events pushing farmers across the Midwest out of the field, he says it also means the crop’s development is being impacted by weather earlier in the season.

“Since corn planting occurred so well this year, the crop will be more vulnerable to this early-season, limited rainfall. We may get through pollination so quickly that the improving weather may come a little late to give the crop the best production potential,” says Lerner. “Soybeans may have a better chance to utilize and benefit from a little more rain in July and August even if the moisture profile does not get fixed and some level of drought remains.”

As El Nino continues to have more of an influence, Lerner says history shows better chances of rainfall to arrive at a less than ideal time for farmers: during harvest.

“By the way, the increasing rainfall over time in those two years led to a wet September – for whatever that may be worth,” Lerner adds.

Weather continues to be a trending topic this year. Follow more AgWeb coverage of the 2023 drought .

U.S. States Reach Colorado River Water Conservation Deal

Mon, 22 May 2023 20:28:33 GMT

Seven U.S. states along the drought-starved Colorado River have reached a deal with the Biden administration to conserve water in a “historic consensus” to prevent supply problems for big cities like Los Angeles and Phoenix as well as farmers.

In the agreement, Arizona, California and Nevada will take 3 million-acre-feet less water from the river through the end of 2026, the U.S. Department of the Interior said on Monday.

In return for using about 13% less water over three years, the three states will get around $1.2 billion in federal compensation, the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with the talks.

After nearly a year of negotiations, the temporary deal is aimed at preventing water levels from dropping below critical levels in Lake Powell and Lake Mead: the United States’ largest reservoirs.

Some 40 million people and 30 tribal nations depend on the Colorado River Basin for drinking water and electricity.

Mexico also uses Colorado River water. Farmers who rely on the Colorado River water supply national and even international food supply systems.

The new operating guidelines, set to be advanced next month by the Department of the Interior, replace a 2007 agreement.

Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico in the Upper Basin and California, Arizona and Nevada in the Lower Basin, which share Colorado River waters under the compact, had been struggling for months to come up with an agreement on cuts after federal officials asked for reduced usage of 2 million to 4 million acre-feet of water per year, an unprecedented reduction of 15% to 30% in the coming year.

(Reporting by Rami Ayyub; Editing by Mark Porter, Donna Bryson and Jonathan Oatis)

'It Looks Like a War Zone': Texas Farmer Describes Wheat Crop Now Ravaged by Sunday's Derecho and Dust Storm

Mon, 27 Feb 2023 20:54:26 GMT

Scenes across Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas this week strongly resembled the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s. Winds topping 100 mph only added to the scars the two-year drought has etched into the area. Now, growers are dealing with a dryland wheat crop that could already see abandonment as high as 80%.

Photos and videos from the area portray scenes from Sunday’s storm. Quentin Shieldknight, a farmer in Spearman, Texas, says the area had already been ravaged by high winds this month. Sunday’s storm then finished off some of the wheat crop.

PEAK WIND GUSTS 2/26/2023 - Memphis, Texas takes the cake for highest wind yesterday by a long shot. I have seen my fair share of wind gusts near 100 mph before but have never seen one at 114 MPH until yesterday for our region.#txwx #okwx #nmwx #phwx @ABC7Amarillo @StormSearch7 pic.twitter.com/z4L9xMIv04
— Corbin Voges WX (@CorbinVogesWX) February 27, 2023

“I would say the dryland wheat’s probably done,” Shieldknight told Farm Journal. “I would say the static electricity generated by that storm yesterday is probably going to be rather significant.”

That area of the Texas Panhandle sees an average rainfall total of 17 inches per year. However, it has seen only 12 inches of rain the past two years combined. “It’s been a two-year drought for us where we haven’t had a significant rain event,” he says. “What rains we did get got some crops up on the dryland fields, but it didn’t sustain them. This northeast corner of the Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle into southwest Kansas, it almost looks like a ‘war zone,’ is what somebody called it. It’s just so bad.”

This is unpleasant. pic.twitter.com/rqzBnFVIxJ
— Brad Heffington 🌵🌵🏈 (@BradHeffington) February 26, 2023

Brad Heffington lives just north of Littlefield, Texas. He says Sunday’s dust storm was as bad as he’s seen in his 35-year farming career. He also is growing less optimistic about crop prospects this year, with his estimate of losses being at least 80% on dryland winter wheat. Heffington says it’s getting so bad, even some of the irrigated wheat in his area has ben killed off by the dry and windy weather.

While crop losses could continue to mount, Shieldknight says adjusters will be assessing fields this week, but winter wheat abandonment on dryland could be as high as 80% in his area. That’s after Sunday’s weather was created, a picture that eerily resembled the Dust Bowl.

“Even before the storms built up behind all that wind, there was just significant dust in the air,” he says. “It was hot, extremely high winds. You had to be careful if you were in a high-profile vehicle. If you were driving and went around a corner or drove by a set of bins, you better be hanging onto the steering wheel pretty good. There were times where you couldn’t see 10 feet in front of your face if you went by certain fields that were blowing.”

Almost paradise in west Texas 🥴

Top wind hit 78mph in Morton! pic.twitter.com/kmyYwsuiN9
— Railey Silhan (@RaileyKayBrown) February 27, 2023

What’s also scary to Shieldknight is how early the wind events started this year. Typically, March and April are the months that start producing high winds. That was the case last year, when a similar wind event took out much of the winter wheat crop in April. This year, the month of February produced two windstorms, with the major one hitting on Sunday.

Now, the Texas farmer is considering changing up his planting plans for this year, as the long-term weather prospects don’t look promising for the spring-planted crops.

“One thought in my mind last night was I might need to load up on some sorghum instead of more corn, because sorghum uses less water. The risk’s there that we will have more days like this all the way into April or May,” he says. “It’s going to change some crop plans from corn to low-use water crops, because that risk on corn could be significant. If our long-range weather forecast for July and August doesn’t change, I think guys have got to really start thinking about what crops do we need to roll back to and not have that risk out there.”

The sun is almost still visible pic.twitter.com/csTYDTFdpS
— Mr Optimism🤔🌵 (@bwhite70) February 26, 2023

Shieldknight is also aware of some of the criticism around why farmers in the area don’t plant more cover crops to help prevent dust storms like Sunday’s event. But the Texas farmer points out you need moisture to get any type of crop established, something that the area hasn’t really seen this year. Any cover crop or wheat that’s been planted in dryland is barely hanging on or was already killed off from drought and wind.

Farming in that area of the Plains is tough, which is why the area is also heavy into strip-tillage and other minimal-tillage practices to preserve any drop of moisture they can. But in years when it doesn’t rain, on fields that don’t have irrigation, there’s not much area farmers can do.

“We are in a unique place in the Texas Panhandle. You have to have a heck of a backbone and a strong faith in God, and it really takes a big one, because if it does not rain there is no chance you can get a crop up. There’s just not a chance,” he says. “And we have windows where we get rain, and if you can’t get a crop up in those windows, or planting at a time it doesn’t rain, it’s nearly impossible. And so, most guys do the best job they can to leave cover on. That’s why we try to plant winter wheat, or we try to leave our sorghum stalks or stuff on our dryland, because we can’t raise dryland corn here.”

The weather hasn’t only been devastating to wheat farmers, but also cattle producers who typically use those fields for grazing this time of year.

Rain Or Drought? What to Expect from the Weather Following the End of La Niña?

Wed, 08 Feb 2023 17:53:29 GMT

After three years of La-Niña-driven weather, scientists at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) say the cold water along the equatorial Pacific is showing signs of warming. The CPC in January said there’s now an 82% chance for ENSO-neutral by spring.

“It will take a period of a few months for the pattern to completely break down but in the process, we will have opportunities for breaks from the pattern that’s been so prevailing,” says Drew Lerner, president at World Weather Inc. “As La Niña diminishes, we will lose that persistent below-normal-precipitation bias.”

That is good news for Argentina, along with winter wheat country, the Southwest and California in the U.S.

“Soil moisture going into spring is an understated but impactful driver of seasonal weather,” says Kirk Hinz, a meteorologist at BAMwx.com. “If we start dry, it’s easier to end dry. If we go through the spring wetter, then we’re more likely to retain that kind of pattern.”

RETURN OF 2012?

These transition years can be hard to predict, Hinz says. The modern mark remains 2012.

“The year before was a La Niña and as we went into the summer of 2012, it was just below an El Niño,” Hinz says. “This isn’t one-to-one, but we are trending in a similar direction (towards a more ENSO-neutral pattern) and we are at a pivotal point over the next 30 to 60 days.”

While an El Niño is often associated with better chances for rain throughout the Southwest and Plains, the CPC says there’s less than a 40% chance it arrives between June and August.

“When we’re talking about the La Niña relaxing, it isn’t all about going to El Niño,” says Brian Bledsoe, chief meteorologist at KKTV 11 in Colorado Springs. “A lot of times it’s just about not dealing with La Niña or El Niño and being neutral for a little bit, which allows us to see better moisture.”

WATCH THE PDO

The ENSO twins aren’t the only influences in town but they tend to be the loudest. However, as La Nina ends, both Lerner and Bledsoe say they’ll watch the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for clues.

“A strongly negative PDO allows for more troughing to come into the west coast and if you put a trough of low pressure in the western part of North America, in the middle of the country, you put a ridge of high pressure,” says Lerner.

He says while rains are likely to fall this spring, if a negative PDO prevails, the Midwest is likely to go right back into a dryer bias during summer.

“As of December, we were at 17 months in a row of what I call a strong, negative PDO,” says Lerner. “We haven’t had 17 months of strong negative PDO and our recorded history [going back to 1950].”

(Farm Journal)

“The PDO operates on a 25-to-30-year cycle and so since the late 90s It’s been in a cold and negative phase,” Bledsoe said.

Research confirms the impact. According to one study , in the southwestern U.S. 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800.

“We have to get the PDO to flip to at least a short-term warm phase to really capitalize on the moisture,” said Bledsoe. “While it’s quite negative right now I do see some evidence that it could possibly flip, if nothing else, to a less negative or even neutral phase, by later this year.”

He says, looking at historical patterns, a more positive PDO is due to arrive anytime.

“Once you see it change you need to do everything you can to capitalize on that moisture,” said Bledsoe, who grew up in a ranching family in southeast Colorado.

Extreme Heat And High Nighttime Temps Now Hitting At A Crucial Time For A U.S. Corn Crop Planted Late

Wed, 20 Jul 2022 14:29:23 GMT

Extreme heat is painting the worst-case scenario for the Western Corn Belt this week. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is concerned about not only the duration of the relentless heat in the most recent weather forecast, but the impact it could have at a key time for late planted corn currently pollinating.

The historic heatwave in the West already created record temps this weekend. Glasgow, Montana reached 108 degrees on Sunday. 100 degree heat hit Lawton, Oklahoma. Rippey says the extended heat could possibly set a few monthly or all-time records the Great Plains.

Read More: Half the U.S. Corn Crop Was Planted in Two Weeks, Now the 10-Day Forecast Shows Signs of Trouble

For the states seeing triple digit heat enter the picture this week, temperatures could continue to crush daily records west of the Mississippi River, which could not only cause crop pollination problems and pose a threat for grain fill in corn, but some of the country’s soybean crop as well.

“I cannot play this out any worse, I think, in my mind of how this heatwave is playing out,” says Rippey. “Here in mid-to-late July. We’ve got corn starting to pollinate. We’ve got soybeans blooming and even starting to set pods in parts of the lower Midwest. And we have this disastrously timed heatwave, it is spreading out of the Great Plains, it’s going to be moving across the western Corn Belt and into the mid-south at what I think is a very inopportune time for corn and soybeans.”

Just How Far Behind is the Crop?

The latest crop progress report from USDA shows while crop conditions held steady this week , the maturity of the crop is behind. Approximately 37% of the corn crop is silking, which is 11 percentage points behind average. Kansas has 31% of its crop silking as of Sunday, which is 19 points slower than the average pace. 65% of Missouri’s crop is in that stage, which is 7 points behind. Nebraska sits at 45% in the silking stage. South Dakota is only at 13%.

The U.S. soybean crop isn’t as far behind in terms of maturity. USDA says 48% of the soybean crop is blooming, which is 7 points behind normal.

(Farm Journal)

August is always a key time for soybeans, but with a late planted corn crop at a crucial stage right now, Rippey is currently concerned about the impact it will have on the western Corn Belt’s corn crop most.

“We’re looking at late week to weekend temperatures that are going to hit 100 degrees or higher in many areas of the southwestern Corn Belt states, including Nebraska, Kansas, into Missouri and even parts of Iowa, especially the southern and western parts of the state,” says Rippey. “And given the timing on that, and the fact that a disproportionate amount of that crop is moving into pollination, or blooming in this mid-to-late July period, I don’t think we could write a worse scenario for the crop.”

Read More: AccuWeather Thinks Next Week’s Heat Wave Could Scorch 30 to 45 Million Bushels of Corn

The other weather issue is the fact the crop won’t get much of a break from the heat with high nighttime temperatures.

“Unfortunately, a complicating impact here is that we’re not going to get much nighttime relief temperatures at night are going to be in the 70s to near 80 degrees. And that adds another layer of complexity to this entire pollination and blooming situation that could be detrimental to the crop,” says Rippey.

The latest look at National Weather Services’ three-to four-week outlook shows triple digit heat is expected to last through the week. Longer-range forecasts also strongly suggest heat and dryness to remain a problem west of the Mississippi River for the first half of next month.

(Farm Journal)

“If you look at the six to 10 day, the eight to 14 day, the three-to-four week outlooks, and then we’ll have a new set of monthly and seasonal outlooks coming out on Thursday. That’ll be a focus just to see what the weather service thinks is going to be the outlook for August. I’m afraid it’s going to be very similar to what we’re seeing on that three to four week Outlook with a lot more heat parked right over the middle part of the country, bleeding into the western Corn Belt and the Mid South, unfortunately,” he adds.

Yes, July is Supposed to Be Hot... But Not This Hot

July is supposed to be hot, so why is this heat even news? Rippey says it all goes back to how much of the crop was planted late, with 50% of the nation’s corn crop planted in a two-week window and two-thirds planted in just three weeks.

Crop Conditions

El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown

Subsurface Ocean Warming Signals Early El Niño Development and Global Weather Shifts

Timing of El Niño Formation Remains Uncertain Despite Increasing Odds

How Strong Could This El Niño Be?

Potential Impacts on U.S. Growing Season: Drier Springs, Variable Summer Rainfall

Planning Ahead for Crop Management: Field Decisions, Irrigation and Risk Strategy

Mycotoxin Risk Holds Steady in 2025

The Major Players

What Changed from 2024 to 2025

Cattle: Rumen Function, Immune Resilience and Production Losses

Swine: Immune Disruption, Gut Barrier Injury and Performance Drag

Mycotoxin Co-Contamination Defines 2025

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

West Nile Virus Activity Spikes to 20-Year High in the Midwest

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

What the Wet Start to the Month Could Mean for Drought and Heat in June

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

As Temperatures Near 100 Degrees in the Upper Midwest, Does it Signal a Bigger Problem for Summer?

This Spring is Setting Up to Be Eerily Similar to 1968: Here's What That Could Mean for Drought This Summer

This Winter's Lack of Snow Cover Could Spell Trouble for Drought in These Areas

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

There Are New, Early Signs of Ag Sector Financial Pressure

The Canadian Wildfires Never Fully Died Down In 2023, And That's Why They're Back With A Vengeance Now

Dormant Threat Under The Snow

The Smoke Effect on Crop Yields

Summer Precipitation and Temperature Outlook

Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway

Spring Forecast Barrier Makes it Hard to Predict

The El Niño Effect: Is El Niño to Blame for the Historic Heat and Drought that Gripped the U.S. in 2023?

The Midwest is Set to Bake Under High Heat, Ag Meteorologists Now Worry About Severe Crop Damage

Western and Central Corn Belt Could Be Hit the Hardest

Hot with a Chance of Isolated Storms

Midwest Rains Not Enough to Break Long-Term Drought, 67% of Corn Still Rooted in Drought

What Will it Take to Break the Drought?

More Rain Relief on the Way?

Game Changer for Soybeans? USDA Ignites Fireworks in the Markets With Two Major Acreage Surprises

A Major Market Game Changer

Tighter Stocks Theme Continues in June Report

The Yield Debate Heats Up

Derecho Packs Punch of 100 MPH Winds, Flattens Cornfields and Crushes Grain Bins Across the Midwest

Earlier Planted Corn Hit the Hardest

Crop Comments: How do crops look in your area? Post a comment or photo in Crop Comments.

Recent Rains Didn't Put a Dent in the Midwest Drought, 70% of U.S. Corn Crop Now Hit by Drought

Drought Sprouts Corn Yield Concerns

Better Chances of Rain on the Way

ROLL CALL: How do crops look in your area? Post a comment or photo in Crop Comments.

Drought Watch: 64% of U.S. Corn Crop Now Covered by Drought

Weekly Condition Ratings See Largest Drop to Lowest in 30 Years

Read More: Production Problems in the Eastern Corn Belt? A Look at NOAA’s New Summer Drought Outlook

Soybeans Slip

Subsoil Moisture Shows Desperate Need for Rain

Production Problems in the Eastern Corn Belt? A Look at NOAA's New Summer Drought Outlook

Read More: Drought Concerns Grow as 57% of Corn, 51% of Soybeans in the U.S. Now Considered to Be in Drought

What About El Nino?

Good News for the Western Corn BeltThere is some good news. NOAA says more improvements look to be in store for the Western Corn Belt and Plains, with either improving or going away in eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and eastern Oklahoma.

A Look at the Drought Picture Today

Read More: Weather Woes: 36 to 42 Million Acres of Corn and Soybeans Are in Trouble

Is This a Repeat of 2012?

U.S. States Reach Colorado River Water Conservation Deal

'It Looks Like a War Zone': Texas Farmer Describes Wheat Crop Now Ravaged by Sunday's Derecho and Dust Storm

Rain Or Drought? What to Expect from the Weather Following the End of La Niña?

Extreme Heat And High Nighttime Temps Now Hitting At A Crucial Time For A U.S. Corn Crop Planted Late

Read More: Grains Pull Back Tuesday with Change in Weather, Livestock Open Mixed

Just How Far Behind is the Crop?

Yes, July is Supposed to Be Hot... But Not This Hot

Read More: The Forecast Next Week Is Ugly, So Why Isn’t A Weather Rally Now Underway?

Good News for the Western Corn Belt

There is some good news. NOAA says more improvements look to be in store for the Western Corn Belt and Plains, with either improving or going away in eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and eastern Oklahoma.