Cotton

The One Big Beautiful Bill Will Boost 2025 PLC Payments: Here's a Per-Acre Breakdown

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:11:17 GMT

Both the Senate and House GOP worked around the clock to get President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed this week. The One Big Beautiful Bill, which was more than 800 pages long, barely passed in both the Senate and the House, but is receiving high praise from many agricultural groups who argue the bill is a win for agriculture.

On Thursday, House GOP leaders overcame objections from even Republican lawmakers on provisions for SNAP, Medicaid and rural hospitals. All but two Republicans, Reps. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., and Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., voted for the bill, which passed 218 to 214.

.@SpeakerJohnson officially signs the One Big Beautiful Bill— sending it to @POTUS' desk to be signed into law.

Tax cuts, border security, energy dominance, and so much more are coming your way. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/elzAg7s4LP
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 3, 2025

But for agriculture, tax provisions received high praise, including avoiding a year-end tax hike and eliminating the so-called death tax.

“America’s cattle farmers and ranchers are pleased by the final passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. This legislation will protect family farmers and ranchers from the devastation of the Death Tax, it will avoid a massive year-end tax hike that could have put cattle operations out of business, it expands and protects many of the small business tax deductions that family producers rely on to save more of the hard-earned money, and it funds critical foreign animal disease prevention measures that protect cattle health,” says Ethan Lane, senior vice president of government affairs, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

The bill also provides $66 billion in new spending for farm programs. According to Agri-Pulse , that’s the largest infusion of new money into farm programs since 2002.

These are changes and enhancements many ag groups were pushing for in the next farm bill.

According to Farm CPA Paul Neiffer , a provision in the bill will pay the greater of ARC or PLC for the 2025 crop.

“Therefore, any anticipate increase in PLC payments would likely be the minimum amount paid to farmers for 2025 but remember none of these payments will begin until October 2026,” Neiffer explained in this in-depth analysis . “There will be a payment limit of $155,000 on ARC and PLC, but LLCs and S corporations will be treated the same as a general partnership.”

Based on Neiffer’s calculations, here’s how it will impact PLC. On average, it will add:

Corn: $22.52 per acre
Soybeans: $42.46 per acre
Wheat: $32.77 per acre
Sorghum: $9.90 per acre
Cotton: $93.05 per acre

Neiffer says while everyone’s PLC yield is different, he simply used an average yield to calculate these figures.

Potential extra PLC per acre payments. Click to enlarge.

(Paul Neiffer )

“You will note that based on June MYA prices, projected PLC payments are estimated at about $2.6 billion. Now, under the old law, all of the ARC acres elected would be removed from this table, however, remember that the new law pays the farmer of the higher of ARC or PLC so the first projected column shows what the minimum payment essentially would be,” Neiffer explains.

You can read Neiffer’s full and in-depth analysis here .

President and CEO of National Cotton Council (NCC) Gary Adams says this bill provides additional support desperately needed this year.

“The 2025 crop is going to be or shaping up to be the third year in a row that farmers will see both the market prices and the support levels below cost of production,” Adams says. “One of the reasons why this bill is so important is that for the reference price that applies to the PLC and ARC programs, those higher reference prices that are in this legislation apply to this year’s crop, and that is important because it will help if prices stay low, and stay where they are. This will put some additional support, in the grower’s pocket for the crop that they’re going to harvest this fall.”

American Farm Bureau applauded the work by Congress this week, saying, “More than half of farmers are losing money, so an increase in reference prices is desperately needed, and tax tools will help farmers and ranchers plan for the next season and the next generation.”

The bill now heads to Trump’s desk, which he plans to sign Friday at the White House.

Another Sign of Trouble in the Ag Economy: Farm Bankruptcies Are on the Rise

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 14:03:46 GMT

It’s no secret there’s trouble in the ag economy. As AgWeb reported in March , the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 62% of ag economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, and 85% think the situation will accelerate consolidation on farms and among agribusinesses. A new report from Bloomberg Law shows family farm bankruptcies are also on the rise.

Bloomberg Law’s Alex Wolf and Skye Witley recently reported that family farm bankruptcies had already increased by 55% last year compared to 2023. And there’s no sign of that slowing down, as Wolf and Witley report bankruptcies are trending even higher this year. That’s as farmers continue to grapple with depressed agricultural commodity prices and high input costs.

Farm bankruptcies are on the rise in the U.S.

(Bloomberg)

“And while much of the industrywide distress predates his second stint in the White House, (President Donald) Trump has quickly nudged more farmers closer to the brink of going under and created turbulence for producers trying to make ends meet,” Wolf and Witley reported in the Bloomberg Law story. “Unpredictable tariffs, immigration overhauls, federal program cuts and frozen Agriculture Department funding are now part of the discussions farmers are having as they seek financial help.”

The report shows the last time farm bankruptcy filings soared was in 2019, which was the height of the previous trade war with China. The previous Trump administration sent farmers more than $20 billion in Market Facilitation Program payments (MFP) to help cover export losses.

Following that financial aid to farmers, the report shows family farm bankruptcies, filed under Chapter 12 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, declined each year until 2024.

According to court records, the number of new cases in 2024 jumped to 216 from a near 20-year low of 139. The report also shows those filings have continued to speed up this year, with 82 cases filed over the first three months of 2025, which is nearly double the figure for the same period a year ago.

$10 Billion in ECAP Money to Farmers

More help is on the way, if not already on farm. That’s because the American Relief Act of 2025, which was passed by Congress late last year, authorized the $10 billion for ECAP payments to help offset losses growers incurred during the 2024 crop year. Those payments are being dispersed now, and farmers have until August to sign up.

According to Joe Glauber, former USDA chief economist and a current emeritus fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute, direct payments have helped farmers. But the threat of farm bankruptcies, and the reality of financial pain if markets don’t improve, is still there

“Remember, we are getting a ton of money put into the sector this year from the bill that was passed by Congress in December,” Glauber told “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “So that’s $31 billion coming in with $10 billion of that going out to farmers as direct income support to offset low margins. So, I don’t think we’ll see a lot of farms going out of business. But certainly, if these short, tight margins persist for a long time, then that’s going to affect people.”

Rural Bankers Show Concern

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the number of farm loans at risk of defaulting is the highest it’s been since 2020 as demand for non-real-estate farm loans has surged while repayment rates dropped. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago serves the Seventh Federal Reserve District , which includes Iowa, and most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Ag lenders are also concerned. The most recent Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) shows for the 19^th time in the past 20 months, the RMI sank below the 50.0 growth reading in April. This specific index surveys bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

While tariffs and Trump’s focus on trade are causing uncertainty, Ernie Goss, MacAllister chair in regional economics at Creighton University, says ag lenders are actually supportive of Trump’s tough stance on trade.

“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak, according to bank CEOs. Despite the negative fallout from tariffs, 75% of bankers support the tariffs on China, and 79.2% back the 90-day pause on other tariffs,” Goss told “AgriTalk’s” Chip Flory. “I’m an economist and we economists, we’re not very keen on tariffs and trade restrictions. Nonetheless, the bankers, three out of the four bankers are supportive of what the president’s doing there, and I would argue that the farmers are on the president’s side as well.”

The RMI also found rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to a weak 36.0 from March’s 30.4.

“Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, pushed banker confidence lower,” Goss said.

Cotton Hit Especially Hard

Cotton farmers are especially feeling the pain with younger farmers already having difficulty getting financed for this year. Cheap cotton prices and dwindling demand are just part of the problem. Input costs have climbed, and there’s no safety net to be found from a new farm bill. One Georgia farmer told Farm Journal that the current farm bill is irrelevant and worthless, and if a new one doesn’t get passed this year, the cotton industry is doomed.

“We’re going to plant cotton and don’t even have a clue if we’re going to get our money back,” says Franz Rowland, who grows cotton in Boston, Ga. “There’s no farm bill to support us, and the reference price is so low that it’s not anything that we can depend on. So, we’re going to put several million dollars in the ground and don’t even know if we’re going to get it back.”

As president and CEO of National Cotton Council (NCC), Gary Adams sees and hears the somber situation for U.S. cotton farmers from coast to coast. Adams says the outlook for 2025 is even worse than 2024.

“We’ve gone beyond just losing money now that we’re to the point of losing the farm,” he says. “Unfortunately, where the industry is, that’s what it looks like as we’re going into 2025.”

Darren Hudson is the Larry Combest endowed chair for agricultural competitiveness and director of the International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness at Texas Tech University. Hudson focuses on cotton, and on “AgriTalk” this week, he described why cotton farmers, and the entire cotton industry, is feeling the pinch.

“Cotton is fairly input intensive anyway, and so urea, nitrogen costs, all these chemical costs, they’re facing those just like every other farmer out there, but we’ve had three consecutive really bad moisture years,” Hudson told “AgriTalk.” “So, we have a long way to go to get back to what you think of as normal growing conditions.”

Hudson says three consecutive years of declining production due to drought isn’t just a problem for producers, it’s also the cotton infrastructure that relies on that crop.

“We’ve had three years, you know, that processing infrastructure all that stuff is strained and disappearing, and it’s getting harder and harder to farm as a cotton farmer out here,” says Hudson, who’s based in Lubock, Texas. “We’re not unusual compared to everybody else. We don’t want to sing a sad story, but I think all of ag is in a squeeze at this moment with [commodity] prices versus inputs.”

Is the Ag Industry Ripe for Consolidation?

Another reality for U.S. agriculture, while the majority of farms in the U.S. are small family farms, that sector doesn’t represent the majority of farm production today.

USDA ERS data shows while 88% of U.S. farms are considered “small family farms,” those farms only represent18.7% of the total U.S. value of farm production.

(Ben Brown, University of Missouri )

USDA ERS data shows while 88% of U.S. farms are considered “small family farms,” those farms only represent 18.7% of the total U.S. value of farm production.

On the other hand, while 3.4% of U.S. farms are “large-scale family farms,” that sector represents 51.8% of the total value of U.S. farm production.

Grassley: I Still Support Trump, But Congress Should Lead On Trade, Tariffs

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 18:33:07 GMT

With financial markets spiraling deeper into the red, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is pounding the table in support of a bill that would wrestle back the executive branch’s authority to enact unilateral world trade decisions without Congressional approval.

The senior senator from Iowa has long held the belief the U.S. Constitution gives Congress direct oversight in regulating foreign commerce. Grassley says the legislature has deferred this authority to the executive branch since the 1960s, and it’s time to claw that power back within the walls of Congress.

“The impression is that I’m doing this because of what Trump did last week. It has nothing to do with that,” Grassley told AgriTalk host Chip Flory on Monday. “This president is doing what Congress gave him the power to do, right? I felt the same way in 2019 and I tried to get some changes then.”

Now, Grassley says he is simply piggybacking on the heightened awareness of trade tariffs after last week’s “Liberation Day” announcements from the Rose Garden. He still supports the President’s overall agenda and is hoping for the best-case scenario – which would entail a worldwide negotiation process to balance trade deficits among the U.S. and its trade partners.

“If he’s successful in putting tariffs on other countries to get them to sit down at the table to bring all tariffs down, I’m going to say he did a better job than my approach of negotiating tariffs down,” Grassley says, adding that the administration can immediately help farmers by supporting a new 5-year Farm Bill and directing the EPA to approve year round E-15 fuel availability.

Under the proposed bipartisan legislation – which is co-sponsored by a handful of U.S. Senators from across the nation – the Trade Review Act of 2025 would require congressional approval of new unilateral tariffs proposed by the executive branch within 60 days.

Over the weekend, senior Trump administration officials, including USDA chief Brooke Rollins, made the rounds on the Sunday morning political TV programs to try to assure corn and soybean farmers – who have suffered profit line hits from two years of inflated operating expenses and low commodity prices – that the President’s tariff strategy would eventually pencil out to long-term gains in domestic manufacturing and crop export markets.

Then, on Monday morning, Trump posted on social media saying he will impose an additional 50% in tariffs (on top of the current 54% rate) on China by April 9 if the country did not back off the 34% retaliatory tariffs it enacted on American goods. Ag economists say the China tariffs will have a devastating impact on U.S. crop and meat exports, and many believe the tariffs have effectively handed Chinese feed and fiber demand to Brazil.

Related: As China Retaliates and Hits U.S. With a New 34% Tariff, What’s the Possible Impact on Ag?

(iStock/Lori Hays)

The U.S. today is China’s largest ag trading partner, but 2024 import data shows that relationship could be fading fast: shipments of U.S. farm goods into China nearly halved from 2022 levels, when China purchased almost $43 billion in U.S. ag products. Last year, that figure plummeted to $29 billion, and many expect the tariffs will slash that figure even lower. China has also torn up or suspended several trade deals with U.S.-based poultry producers, and some experts fear a decrease in demand for U.S. pork products could be devastating to American hog farmers.

Related: Pork Producers Resist Urge to Panic, Respond to New Tariffs

Overall, despite alarm bells being sounded from basically every corner of the economy, the senate’s current longest-tenured member is hopeful there’s a light at the end of this long, roller coaster tariff tunnel for America’s farmers and ranchers.

“If we can export our stuff in a free way, it’s going to help the economy of the United States, and it’s going to help our consumers if we don’t have tariffs on products coming into the United States,” Grassley says. “I’m supportive of the President’s effort to get a better deal for Americans, especially for our farmers because we export about a third of our production, and that’s where farmers want to get it.”

Your Next Read: Ag Markets Try to Recover Early Monday, Except Cattle

EXCLUSIVE: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins Provides Timing Update on $10 Billion in Emergency Relief Payments

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 20:17:12 GMT

Time is running out for USDA to issue the nearly $10 billion of economic relief payments to farmers . Congress approved a 90-day window to release those payments, and in an exclusive interview with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins Thursday morning, we asked when exactly those payments will be released. Rollins confirmed to Farm Journal that those payments will be released before the current deadline.

“Congress gave us until March 21, that is the ideal deadline,” Rollins said. “It looks like we’re going to be able to beat that, so it should be just around the corner.”

As USDA works to release those payments within the next few weeks, according to some sources, producers are banking on the payments, even making business decisions based on projected payment calculations.

Pro Farmer Washington policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the only issue that could impact that timing is a possible government shutdown. If the government shuts down beginning March 15, and those payments haven’t been released yet, that could impact the March 21 deadline.

Wiesemeyer also reports based on history, the initial payment will likely be around 85% of the projected total, with a supplemental payment likely coming in the summer. Most expect the per acre payment rates to be in line with what staffers on the House Ag Committee released last year, which are:

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $71.37

Payment Cap
Like other recent disaster programs, the payment limit for farmers will depend on how much of a farmer’s income is derived from agriculture. However, this program is based on average gross income rather than adjusted gross income (AGI).

The payment cap will be:

If < 75% of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $125,000
If 75% or more of average gross income from 2020 to 2022 is from agriculture, then the limit is $250,000
USDA says standard FSA “actively engaged in farming” requirements apply

While USDA will determine the finalized per acre payments, these are the estimated American Relief Act payments for farmers.

(Lindsey Pound )

Update on Timing of $1 Billion to Combat Avian Flu
Led by Rollins, USDA announced on Wednesday plans to invest up to $1 billion in new funding to combat impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and soaring egg prices.

“The important piece is not just this immediate short-term goal of getting the cost of eggs down and repopulating our layers and locking our barns down,” Rollins told Farm Journal on Thursday. “But much more importantly, perhaps, is figuring this out for the long term, so we’re not having the same conversation over and over and over again.”

The avian flu plan, which USDA rolled out on Wednesday, includes five major points:

Dedicate up to $500 million to help U.S. poultry producers implement “gold-standard” biosecurity measures. USDA has developed a successful pilot program, called Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments, to identify and implement more safety measures. USDA will pay up to 75% of the cost to address any identified biosecurity vulnerabilities at poultry farms.
Make up to $400 million of increased financial relief available to farmers whose flocks are affected by avian flu, and USDA will assist farmers in receiving faster approval to begin safe operations again after an outbreak.
USDA is exploring the use of vaccines and therapeutics for laying chickens. While vaccines aren’t a stand-alone solution, they will provide up to $100 million in research and development of vaccines and therapeutics, to improve their efficacy and efficiency. This should help reduce the need to depopulate flocks, which means killing chickens on a farm where there’s an outbreak. Note: USDA hasn’t yet authorized the use of a vaccine. Before making a determination, USDA will consult state leaders, poultry and dairy farmers, and public-health professionals. The agency will also work with trading partners to minimize potential negative trade effects for U.S. producers and to assess public-health concerns.
USDA will take other actions to lower the price of eggs. For starters, it will remove unnecessary regulatory burdens on egg producers where possible. This will include examining the best way to protect farmers from overly prescriptive state laws, such as California’s Proposition 12, which established minimum space requirements for egg-laying hens.
USDA will consider temporary import options to reduce egg costs in the short term. They will proceed with imports only if the eggs meet stringent U.S. safety standards and if they determine that doing so won’t jeopardize American farmers’ access to markets in the future.

As for the $500 million that will go toward beefing up biosecurity efforts, Rollins says that will happen immediately.

“The team is putting together right now the guardrails for that, but I think they’re almost finished, and that money should be moving out very quickly,” Rollins told Farm Journal. “That biosecurity money is based on a pilot program where 150 different egg laying farms were piloted on specific biosecurity measures. Of those 150, only one has seen the avian flu. Once they implemented, there’s a massive audit that USDA comes in. They help audit. We’re hiring a whole bunch of new folks to come on board to do that — and new epidemiologists to help us work through all of the science on this, and hopefully you see that immediately.”

Where is the $1 Billion Coming From?
At a time when the Trump administration is looking to save money, not spend, we asked Rollins where exactly is the $1 billion of funds going to be sourced.

“We’ve repurposed funds from other programs within USDA, so this is not spending new money,” Rollins said. “Clearly, we’re in an era where President Trump’s vision is to really streamline government, but this is not that. This is outside that lane. This is a really, really important issue. You know, it’s affecting every single American, not just our poultry producers. And so there’s short-term and long-term fixes here now.”

Some of that money, however, is coming from savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

“We are pulling it from multiple different pots. But yes, there’s no doubt that we’ve been able to find some serious savings in DOGE,” Rollins said. “We’ve canceled almost a thousand DEI trainings that were across USDA.... All of it adds up, and we’ve really pulled a lot of that money back. And now putting it where we think it really helps farmers and ranchers.”

What Will It Take for the Ag Economy to Recover

Rollins is set to give the keynote address at USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum on Friday. Rollins told Farm Journal there are a lot of farmers hurting in this economy, saying “it’s one of the worst for that industry that we’ve seen in decades.”

Considering 64% of ag economists think the row crop sector of agriculture is in a recession , we asked Rollins what it will take for the ag economy to recover.

“There’s no doubt, to your point, a lot of our producers in the different lanes are really hurting. Listen, we’ve got to get the cost of input down. We have got to get our export markets opened up around the world. I mean, we’re facing this year a $45 billion trade deficit,” said Rollins.

Rollins says when President Trump left the White House in 2020, there wasn’t a trade deficit. And she says the growign trade deficit is something President Trump wants to address.

“Just think about the amount of ag production that we were once moving out across the world that was keeping our farmers whole and making sure that they could make some kind of a profit,” said Rollins. “That’s not there anymore. Obviously, inflation, the cost of energy has absolutely decimated our producers. The input cost is up 30%. So when you’ve got all of these different factors that are basically piling on at one time, it’s it’s no surprise that sorghum, cotton and so many others are really hurting right now. And we’ve got to do something about that.”

As input prices remain elevated, and commodity prices are below break-even for some, Rollins says she and President Trump are aligned in what needs to happen to bring relief to farmers.

“My perspective, and the president’s perspective, is how do we achieve this through broader access to markets, broader access to capital, making sure that that the cost of inputs goes down. Hopefully with our energy plan, we see that happening almost immediately. And I think that will move into a different era for prosperity for ag, but there’s no doubt it is a dire, dire forecast right now without significant change.”

During the the first Cabinet meeting in President Trump’s second-term, which was held Wednesday, President Trump floated 25% tariffs on the European Union.

“Obviously, tariffs always come up. I’m always saying, ‘let’s be very, very careful and intentional how we move here,’” Rollins said about the first Cabinet meeting. “The border came up, immigration deportations came up. So all the things that the ag community is concerned about that came up, course, I’m at the table. My job is to ensure that that our community’s voice is heard, but also to help effectuate the president’s vision. And we’re moving forward on all fronts.”

You can listen to the complete interview with Secretary Rollins below.

Your Next Read:
EXCLUSIVE: As DOGE Works to Stop ‘Wasteful Spending,’ Ag Secretary Rollins Says Vital Farm Programs Aren’t at Risk

What to Expect During USDA's Ag Outlook Forum This Week

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 18:53:44 GMT

USDA’s 101st Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum will be held Feb. 27-28 near Washington, DC, with the theme of “Meeting Tomorrow’s Challenges, Today.” The look at corn and soybean acreage under current conditions will be among the key focal points during the event, but it will also be key to see how USDA paints an export outlook with so much uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade.

Farm Journal Washington correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer says USDA produced its budget-related figures last fall that were part of the agricultural projections publication that was released ahead of the conference.

“It is not clear how much the figures released next week will change relative to the initial budget-related outlooks,” Wiesemeyer says.

We interviewed Seth Meyer, chief economist with USDA, during the Top Producer Summit last week. He provided a preview for the Ag Outlook Forum, saying he will talk about farm income margins for crops and livestock, which are two very different stories. Meyer says one of the challenging parts is trying to forecast the trade picture, even with the uncertainty around tariffs. USDA will also look at the impact of foreign animal diseases on the livestock sector during the Ag Outlook Forum this week.

What’s Meyer’s overall outlook on 2025? It’s a tad more positive than 2024.

“This is a strange statement to appear bullish, but maybe we’ve hit the bottom. Six months ago, things were getting pretty bad, pretty fast. Hopefully we’ve hit a bottom on some of this and seen a little bit of rebound and maybe a little bit better on demand, especially on corn, as we see a little bit of a rebound. So, I’m kind of hopeful that maybe things aren’t going to get a bunch worse on the crop side,” Meyer says.

While he’s more optimistic, Meyer points out here are still a plethora of challenges in the ag economy, especially with tight margins on the crops side.

“For things like cotton, we’ve continued to see price erode,” Meyer says. “We started at an 80 cent forecast. We’re now down to 64.5 cents, and 80 cents wasn’t going to make you a bundle of money at the time either. So I think we go through these periods of crop prices where input prices are slower to correct. And it makes a really disruptive time as that adjustment happens, and we’re in that disruptive time.”

The Difficulty of Forecasting Trade
USDA analysts in the forecasts released later this week are not expected to make any assumptions on the impact of potential tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities. For the WASDE report, the analysts use the policy actions that are in effect at the time and their outlooks presented next week should follow that track.

“We will produce an outlook which is policy in place,” Meyer says. “So, while there’s been a lot of talk about tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, tariffs on Canada and tariffs on Mexico, right now, we don’t have anything in place. So we’ll do an outlook absent that.”

Meyer says the team at USDA is in the middle of building tools to show the possible impacts of tariffs on trade.

“We’re making sure we have the tools in place to understand what the impact on agriculture is from such actions. So we are prepared internally to do the calculations necessary to support the secretary of agriculture,” Meyer said.

2025 Acreage in Focus
This is USDA’s first glimpse at acreage. Even though it’s not the survey-based estimate, which will be released at the end of March, it’s still the market’s first 2025 acreage data to digest. While Meyer couldn’t reveal any early acreage projections, he acknowledged the trend for more corn acres this year, but says soybeans are also trying to compete for acres.

Meyer wasn’t able to give his acreage estimates, but Dan Basse, founder and president of AgResource Company, says if USDA is aggressive and pencils a 94 million acre number on corn, that could be bearish to the market.

“We’re at 93 million acres at AgResource Company, and I just got back from a conference in Jonesboro in the Delta, and I was just shocked how many Delta farmers want to plant corn and abandon cotton and rice,” Basse told U.S. Farm Report. “We will do a survey again in the middle of March, but our surveys are pointing upward, and I wouldn’t be surprised by 94 million plus at some point.”

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX Group says his current estimates aren’t quite to 94 million, but close.

“Right now we’re at 93.5 million acres, which is up about 3 million from last year,” Suderman said during the live taping of U.S. Farm Report during the Top Producer Summit. “But I have an alternate scenario I’m using right now, which is 95.5 million acres, which would be 5 million acres, essentially, higher than last year. We’re going to do another survey and collect more data right around March 1 when USDA does, because we’re just hearing enough of the feedback from the seed industry about how big their corn seed sales are versus their soybean seed sales. And so if there’s a bias to it, it’s to the upside right now.”

All Ag Outlook Forum sessions will be streamed on a virtual platform this week.

Congress Approves CR, Includes $31 Billion in Farmer, Disaster Aid and Farm Bill Extension

Sat, 21 Dec 2024 16:16:07 GMT

With little if any drama like the House, the Senate easily cleared the 118-page continuing resolution (CR) early Saturday morning with a vote of 85-11 (four members did not vote). The measure funds the government through March 14. The CR includes nearly $110 billion in disaster and farmer aid ($21 billion ag disaster and $10 billion in farmer aid), and a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill.

The Senate vote came hours after the House passed the measure on a 366-34 vote, well above the two-thirds majority threshold required under that chamber’s suspension of the rules procedure, with no Democrats voting no along with 34 Republicans. Texas Dem Rep. Jasmine Crockett voted “present”.

Debt Ceiling

GOP leaders dropped a two-year suspension of the statutory debt ceiling that was in a previous CR version and that helped push the bill through both chambers. Democrats opposed inclusion of the debt limit provision, arguing it would make it easier on Republicans next year to cut taxes and ram through other partisan priorities. Cutting the debt limit language was enough to convince Democrats to go along with the stripped-down bill, even though it excluded their priorities contained in an i nitial 1,547-page bipartisan measure .

One ag sector lobbyist said, “Ag groups need to start playing the game… those who always vote no on everything… why not actively oppose them… they don’t support farm bills anyhow.”

Breaking Down the Votes

Here is the list of House Republicans who voted no on the CR that contained $31 billion in ag sector assistance:

House no votes on CR

(House of Representatives)

Some notable representatives who voted against the CR include Nancy Mace (South Carolina), Thomas Massie (Kentucky), and Chip Roy (Texas). The reasons for voting against the CR varied among representatives, with some citing concerns about high levels of spending, lack of reforms, or opposition to giving the current administration additional funding.

Here is the list of Senate Democrats who voted no:

Senate no votes on CR

(U.S. Senate)

Farmer Aid in the CR

This is a breakdown of the $31 billion in farmer assistance via the CR:

Farmer aid breakdown

(House Ag Committee)

Possible Payment Amounts to Farmers

The farmer aid should be available 90 days after the legislation’s enactment. Farm CPA Paul Neiffer estimated per acre payment amounts via the Economic Loss Assistance program based on his knowledge of the provisions.

Possible payments as calculated by Farm CPA Paul Neiffer

(Lindsey Pound )

While USDA will make the final calculations, based on Neiffer’s estimates, producer payments look like this per acre, using the following calculation: (USDA’s Projected Cost of the Crop – National Projected Returns) x Eligible Acres x 26% = Total Payment.

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $69.66

Neiffer says there is a payment limit of $125,000 dollars, which is down from the $175,00 originally proposed in the FARM Act. He says it’s also key to note with the updated relief, if 75% of your total gross income comes from farming, which includes wages and interest and dividends, then you qualify for the double payment.

Related Story: Poll Results: 71% of Farmers Say Congress Should Approve Economic Aid Before Year-End

House Ag Committee Fact Sheet Details Payments

The House Ag Committee released a fact sheet on the farmer economic assistance that is provided in the current Continuing Resolution (CR), modeled off of Rep. Trent Kelly’s (R-Miss.) FARM Act (HR 10045). There is a list of eligible commodities, a payment formula, administrative provisions, and estimated payment rates.

House Ag panel staffers say please keep in mind that the payment rates in this document are estimates and “almost certain to change slightly once implemented. These rates are the best approximation based on the data cited in text. This does incorporate the minimum payment rate provision. You’ll see that those crops receiving payments via the minimum payment provision have an asterisk.”

The House Ag panel had the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M analyze the impact of the economic assistance provided through this provision. Their findings suggest that the funds will improve ending cash position on their Representative Farm system by nearly 20% by the end of 2025.

Farmer aid

(House Ag Committee)

Your Next Reads:

Poll Results: 71% of Farmers Say Congress Should Approve Economic Aid Before Year-End

Ag Gets Potential Christmas Gift from Congress: Continuing Resolution Includes $31 Billion in Aid for Producers

Poll Results: 71% of Farmers Say Congress Should Approve Economic Aid Before Year-End

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 20:35:20 GMT

Between the FARM Act originally proposed this fall, to the new Economic Loss Assistance program included in the continuing resolution (CR) released this week, financial aid for farmers has been a highly debated topic in the second-half of this year. However, a new AgWeb farmer poll shows farmers are overwhelmingly in support of financial relief before the end of the year.

As agriculture faces a recession , agricultural groups and ag lenders pushed for Congress to include emergency financial aid for farmers in the stopgap bill. The text was released late Tuesday night and included $31 billion in total aid for producers, including $10 billion in direct payments for farmers and $21 billion in ag disaster aid, a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and year-round E15.

The proposed CR does include an extension of the 2018 farm bill, but it does not include the push to raise reference prices.

You can dive into all the details of the stopgap spending measure here , which still needs to be approved by Congress.

Farmer Poll Results

AgWeb asked farmers in a poll whether Congress should pass economic aid for farmers before year-end, as well as if Congress should raise reference prices in a farm bill extension. The poll garnered more than 2,500 responses:

71% of respondents said Congress should approve emergency economic aid
29% responded no
81% of farmers said Congress should raise reference prices when extending the 2018 farm bill.
19% said no.

Possible Payments for Farmers

Possible payments as calculated by Farm CPA Paul Neiffer

(Lindsey Pound )

It’s still unclear exactly what the per acre payments will be if Congress approves the CR this week. Farm CPA Paul Neiffer estimated per acre payment amounts via the Economic Loss Assistance program based on his knowledge of the provisions. While USDA will make the final calculations, based on Neiffer’s estimates, producer payments look like this per acre, using the following calculation: (USDA’s Projected Cost of the Crop – National Projected Returns) x Eligible Acres x 26% = Total Payment.

Corn: $43.80
Soybeans: $30.61
Wheat: $31.80
Cotton: $84.70
Rice: $69.66

How Ag Financial Aid Will be Determined
Neiffer says there is a payment limit of $125,000 dollars, which is down from the $175,00 originally proposed in the FARM Act. He says it’s also key to note with the updated relief, if 75% of your total gross income comes from farming, which includes wages and interest and dividends, then you qualify for the double payment.

The $10 billion in direct payments, along with the $21 billion in disaster aid, could help the farm economy in the coming months, according to Neiffer.

“Bottom line is you got an extra $10 billion of injected liquidity into your system automatically,” Neiffer said. “And then for those farmers that were facing some type of disaster, like drought, wildfire, hurricane, etc., you’re going to get an extra about $10 billion for 2023 and an extra about $10 billion for 2024. There’s $2 billion automatically allocated for livestock out of that $20 billion, and then there’s some other carve outs for forestry and honeybees and so on and so forth, but this is an extra $30 billion that’s going to get pumped into the farm economy here in the next three to four months.”

Economists at the University of Illinois calculated payments, which came out to be slightly different than Neiffer’s estimates. According to U of I economists, the payments will be:

Corn: $42.94
Soybeans: $27.69
Wheat: $19.07
Sorghum: $25.11

When will payments be received by farmers?

Farm Journal Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer reports if Congress passes the measure, the economic aid will come 90 days after enactment.

As for ag disaster, the push is on to use the 2020 approach where most payments came out of USDA’s Kansas City office.

How Does This Compare to the FARM Act?

The Farm Assistance and Revenue Mitigation (FARM) Act was proposed earlier this year. The bill was authored by Rep. Trent Kelly, R-Miss., on the House Ag Committee. That payment calculation was much higher than what’s included in the CR this week and based on the following: (USDA’s Projected Cost of the Crop – National Projected Returns) x Eligible Acres x 60% = Total Payment.

Possible payments under the previously proposed FARM Act totaled nearly $20 billion, and per acre payments were estimated at:

Corn: $101
Soybeans: $53
Wheat: $73
Cotton: $195
Rice: $84
Sorghum: $97
Oats: $177
Barley: $0

Mixed Reaction to Potential Direct Payments to Farmers

Many agriculture groups and associations have released statements in favor of the potential relief in Congress. The American Soybean Association (ASA) says inflation, historically high input prices, falling commodity prices, and a spate of storms have led to tougher-than-normal times for U.S. farmers, and the price of soybeans has dropped 40% in just two years.

“We appreciate that congressional leadership heard our fourth-quarter plea and understood the very real consequences of not including economic and disaster aid in their plans,” says Caleb Ragland, president of the ASA and soybean farmer from Kentucky. “This is a much-needed win at a time that has been exceptionally hard for many of our country’s farmers.”

Pete Meyer, crops economist with Muddy Boots Ag, says with agriculture in a recession, the relief is needed, but he’s worried about what impact it could have on input prices and other inflated prices that are causing farmers to see costs below breakeven.

“It is needed,” Meyer says. “I mean, we talk to plenty of regional banks, and this is renewal season, and the banks say they are having a difficult time for sure. It’s a sad commentary on what the farm economy looks like, but the fact of the matter is, there are marginal farmers out there. And what this does is it allows the marginal farmer or the hobby farmer back in the game.”

Meyer says this aid could prove to be problematic, pointing to the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) as one reason why.

“In my opinion, that’s where the inflation cycle started, because everybody wanted their piece of the pie. So now you have you have direct payments, which is probably going to end up in the pockets of of your input supplier, because your input supplier is probably not going to lower his or her prices because now they know you have a few extra dollars in your pocket.”

Is a Reset in the Farm Economy Needed?

Meyer says what the farm economy really needs is two-fold: more demand and a reset in input prices.

“Where we could get that demand from, I can point to sustainable aviation fuel just as a as a perfect example of that,” he says. “But who knows what the rules are on 45Z or sustainable aviation fuel. So that’s still an unknown.”

Meyer says the second thing the ag economy needs to see is a reset, which he says is already starting to take place in the used equipment market.

“You see some some fairly new 2-to-3-year-old combines trading for a fraction of what they traded new just two years ago, but we’ve not seen the reset on the input side. It’s your fertilizer, your seed and everything else that goes along with it,” Meyer says. “So the problem is now is that it might this might be another year where the input supplier is going to hold tight on his or her prices.”

A Farm Bill Extension Without Economic Aid for Farmers Sparks Intense Negotiations and Debate in Congress

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 23:05:38 GMT

A one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, tied to the continuing resolution (CR), has sparked intense negotiations over economic assistance to farmers. Initially, leaders considered diverting Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds intended for the National Resources Conservation Service in exchange for farmer aid. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) opposed this, aligning with President-elect Donald Trump’s intent to dismantle the IRA in the next Congress.

Sensing an opening, Democrats pushed for concessions in return for their support, proposing initiatives like 100% federal funding for Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, duty-free trade benefits for Haiti and Africa, funding for museums honoring women and Hispanics, and re-entry support for former inmates under the Second Chance Act.

AFBF Calls for a No Vote If Congress Ignores Ag Recession 📰 https://t.co/ejlB4kQZh4 https://t.co/WaArdCYkdw
— American Farm Bureau (@FarmBureau) December 14, 2024

Farm-state lawmakers, pushed by farm group lobbyists, said they would not support a CR without farmer aid. American Farm Bureau Federation publicly called on lawmakers to oppose the stopgap bill if it doesn’t include farm aid. “I call on members of Congress who represent ag to stand with farmers by insisting the supplemental spending bill include economic aid for farmers and voting it down if it doesn’t,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said Saturday.

The Dilimma

Democrats know Johnson wants farmer aid language and must rely on them to help pass it, perhaps a majority of votes. House GOP leaders may have to take the CR up under suspension, meaning it will need a two-thirds majority to pass. If congressional leaders release CR bill text today, the House may not vote until Thursday. If so, the Senate could follow on Thursday or more likely on Friday.

Unlocking the farm aid package is the key to a broader CR deal. Both sides want to get aid to farmers, but they differ on the funding mechanisms. Republicans rejected a Democratic offer to include about $10 billion in aid to farmers while moving several conservation/climate programs into the farm bill baseline, which technically scores as deficit neutral. Republican leaders opposed continuing the conservation programs beyond their 2031 expiration, as they’d like to claw back as much of the 2022 law’s climate-related spending as possible once they have full control of the House, Senate and White House next year. Democrats in turn rejected a GOP counteroffer of $12 billion in unoffset economic aid, saying it came at the expense of some of Biden’s requested $21 billion in emergency agricultural assistance for farmers and ranchers impacted by natural disasters

The American Soybean Association (ASA) and other farm groups announced opposition to any year-end spending package that excludes economic assistance for agricultural producers. ASA President Caleb Ragland emphasized the urgent need for aid as farmers grapple with inflation, soaring input costs, and declining commodity prices.

Ragland, a soy farmer from Kentucky, called on congressional leaders to re-engage in negotiations to deliver both economic and disaster relief. He warned that failing to act would exacerbate the financial struggles of farmers, potentially leading to widespread impacts on rural communities and the broader U.S. economy. Soybean prices have fallen 40% over two years, with many farmers citing an insufficient safety net to weather the crisis.

ASA and other agricultural groups argue that without meaningful support, the nation risks an escalating agricultural recession that will reverberate through households across the country.

Meanwhile, the National Cotton Council (NCC) said it also strongly opposes any supplemental spending package that lacks meaningful short-term assistance for farmers. An NCC statement said the failure of Congress to provide short-term support to producers will mean that many farm families will go out of business in 2025, leading to devastating impacts throughout the rural economy. “We urge Congressional leadership to return to the negotiating table to find a path forward on economic assistance. If not, we will vigorously oppose a supplemental spending package that does not provide the immediate support our producers need. The current stalemate is a completely unacceptable outcome,” said NCC Chairman Joe Nicosia.

American Cotton Producer Chairman David Dunlow of North Carolina said, “Our producers will lose as much as $300 per acre on this year’s harvest due to soaring production costs and low market prices. Unfortunately, political gamesmanship has resulted in legislators turning their back on farmers during our hour of greatest need.”

Senate Democrats Respond

House Ag Committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-Ga.) and Senate Ag Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) issued a statement ( link ) condemning Republican Leadership for rejecting a $10 billion farm bill extension proposal. They said the Democrats’ plan aimed to provide economic aid and bolster conservation programs without diverting funds from disaster relief. They warned that the GOP’s counteroffer falls short, jeopardizing farmers’ livelihoods and risking widespread foreclosures.

Congressional Democrats are proposing $9.8 billion in economic assistance to farmers that is completely paid for and doesn’t add a penny to the deficit. This is real help that will reach farmers by the spring planting season. pic.twitter.com/9ty2uSKDFJ
— Senate Ag, Nutrition, & Forestry Committee Dems (@SenateAgDems) December 11, 2024

“For weeks, congressional Democrats have provided a pathway to a farm bill extension that will deliver tens of billions of dollars in economic assistance and investments in farm bill programs that farmers rely on,” Stabenow said in a statement. “Republican Leadership turned down this $10 billion proposal, rejecting needed economic assistance and increased conservation spending for decades. It is important to stress that this proposal is paid for and does not take any funding away from the critical natural disaster aid that has been requested. Their eleventh-hour offer fell short of what farmers need, shortchanged critical farm bill programs, and steals from critically needed assistance to address recent natural disasters. We can and should do both economic and disaster assistance, not pit one against the other.”

Senate GOP Lashes Out

House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), ranking on the Senate Ag panel, criticized Democrats for neglecting rural needs and announced their opposition to any package lacking robust farmer assistance.

.@FarmBureau calls for prioritizing emergency assistance for farmers.

"We lost 141,000 farms in five years and if Congress fails to include economic aid for farmers, the sad reality is that we’ll lose more."

Read the statement: https://t.co/lQuJ35f2R1
— Senate Ag Committee Republicans (@SenateAgGOP) December 14, 2024

”America’s farmers have lost over $30 billion this year. And for the last few months we have led many of our colleagues in raising the concerns of the farm community in meetings, in hearings, on the House and Senate floors, and in private conversations with other Republicans and Democrats. We are deeply disappointed to learn that congressional leadership is failing to provide our farmers with the economic assistance they need to weather the crisis they are currently facing,” Boozman and Thompson said in a release “Last week, Republican leaders offered Leader Schumer and Leader Jefferies a $12 billion economic aid package for our nation’s farmers, which they rejected. It appears that congressional Democrats have not learned the lessons of the most recent election and continue to neglect the needs of rural America.”

Frozen Dinosaur: Farmer Finds Huge Alligator Snapping Turtle Under Ice

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 21:26:04 GMT

Across a clear sheet of frozen water, and against a cutting wind, Robbie Polk and three companions walked toward a meeting with a giant. Layered in camo, shotgun over his shoulder, and headlamp angled downward to pierce early morning hours still draped in black, Polk stumbled as his light beam illuminated a stunning sight and the bitterly cold air exploded with exclamations of disbelief. Polk was staring at a dinosaur beneath the ice.

Farmland and its surrounding environs hold all manner of secrets, but on a harsh January day in 2018, when Polk and three hunting buddies chanced upon a gargantuan alligator snapping turtle suspended just below the ice, the foursome witnessed a rarely seen mode of survival. Taking the once-in-a-lifetime encounter beyond all reasonable expectations, the group found a second alligator snapping turtle in close proximity, also located just below the ice. A morning that began with brutal weather and ended with no ducks became the most unusual hunt of Polk’s life.

The Big Freeze

Polk, 34, grows corn, cotton and soybeans in Phillips County, roughly 10 miles south of Marvell, in southeast Arkansas. During winter, he duck hunts three to four times a week in the heart of the Mississippi Flyway, and for the past 15 years, Polk has established a time-honored tradition of hunting several times during the season with college buddies Jonathan Evins and Hayes Anthony (Eldorado), and brother-in-law Trey Whitley (Little Rock).

On Jan. 13, 2018, the quartet readied for a hunt on 15 acres of flooded ground (pumped by Polk) within a larger 120-acre field, on a piece of Polk’s farmland off Maddox Bay, roughly 25 miles southwest of Marvell. Arriving an hour before daylight, Polk eased a side-by-side off his truck trailer, unloaded Anthony’s black lab, Kane, and the group set off for the hole. Even for seasoned outdoorsmen, the conditions were ripe for a poor hunt: “Seems like it was about 13 degrees that day, before a wind chill in the single digits,” Polk recalls. “Maddox Bay was freezing over, something the old-timers hadn’t even seen, but our wives locked us into a baby shower in the evening, and this was the only chance to hunt.”

Parking the side-by-side at field’s edge, Polk grabbed his gear, along with a left-handed, Benelli Super Black Eagle 12 gauge, and the group set out on foot, crunching across frozen farmland, only to find the 15-acre hole locked tightly in ice. Polk switched gears, and headed to an adjacent private lake—dubbed the goose pond—with average depths of 7’-8’, another prime spot to hunt, hoping the waters might be relatively clear. However, to access the goose pond, the foursome had to cross a low-lying wooded stretch with water typically at knee to thigh level.

Crossing the sunken woods, Polk and company reached the goose pond’s edge, only to find heavy ice, and even where the ice thinned at greater depth and could be broken, the water was too deep for a standing hunt. In short, the goose pond was a no-go, and the band of four reversed course into the wooded buffer, back to the farm hole.

Leviathan

Navigating on ice, headlamp and flashlight bobbing between trees and stumps, Polk heard voices break through the darkness, and moved toward the sounds, finding Evins, Hayes and Whitley standing atop leviathan—an alligator snapping turtle submerged below approximately 2” of ice, distinctive by three ridges atop an algae-covered shell and a hooked beak. Polk was shocked by the sheer size: “It was unbelievable. We trotline on the goose pond and catch snapping turtles, but nothing this size. The diameter of the shell was about bigger than a truck tire and the head size was very close to a human’s. I’ve caught some big ones , but you couldn’t manhandle this one and you wouldn’t want to.”

Whitley concurs: “I think Jonathan saw it first, and he yelled, ‘Check this out.’ I was completely amazed to see this giant turtle about 1’ under the ice, which was a couple of inches thick. Tail to nose, I’d say it was 4’-5’ in size, with a head that was easily the size of an adolescent human. This was like something you’d think would be in a museum. Even in that moment, I knew I’d never see something like this again. I’d never seen a turtle this big, much less under ice.”

However, just minutes later, the quartet made a second highly unlikely discovery. Incredibly, 20 yards to the south of the giant turtle, they walked over a second alligator snapping turtle in the ice. “This one was less than half the size of the big one, and we could make out the barest movement. They were both moving—just in the tiniest motion—but you just see they were very much alive,” Whitley details.

“Just a hair,” Polk echoes. “You could see head movement if you watched close.”

After snapping a few smartphone pictures as the shooting hour quickly approached, the quartet continued on for the farm hole, broke ice into massive chunks that were hardly inviting to waterfowl, dropped in a half-dozen decoys, and hunkered down for misery—particularly for Polk. “I was coming off a week of flu, and then fell in while we were breaking ice, and got water all in my waders. I took off some of the wet clothes, borrowed clothes, curled up in the blind, and froze my tail off while everybody else hunted.”

By 10 a.m., after a continuous chain of breaking ice every 30 minutes, the quartet packed up and walked back to the turtles for a few final pictures in daylight, and then headed for the side-by-side, leaving the two reptiles to nature. Despite no ducks killed, the hunt left a lifetime impression on the foursome. They’ve hunted the ground a dozen times since, walking and standing in the same water for hours, chasing ducks and dogs, always recalling the frozen day of the massive turtle. “Whenever we’re out hunting beside that strip of woods,” Polk describes, “and someone feels a bump on their leg, we say, ‘Oh, it’s that turtle again.’”

A Tiny Window

Even prior to seeing the two turtles below the ice, Polk carried heavy respect for alligator snapping turtles: “We don’t intentionally catch these guys when we trotline for catfish, and we do whatever is necessary to make sure they’re not injured when we release them from the line. Basically, we do whatever we can to protect them.”

Whatever the giant turtle’s age, Polk knows it long preceded him beside farmland: “I don’t know how old it was or if it was a record —I just know what we saw. That turtle has been here a long, long time, and knows how to survive.”

“Seeing the turtle has given me a greater appreciation for the parts of God’s creation that we don’t notice around us. Animals have their own world and you don’t think about it when you’re hunting in the woods. You don’t think about what all goes on all day and all night when you’re not around. That turtle in the ice was a privilege to see and it’s just a little window to all the unknown things that go on in the wild .”

For more, see:

Rat Hunting with the Dogs of War, Farming’s Greatest Show on Legs

Killing Hogzilla: Hunting a Monster Wild Pig

In the Blood: Hunting Deer Antlers with a Legendary Shed Whisperer

Descent Into Hell: Farmer Escapes Corn Tomb Death

Farmer Refuses to Roll, Rips Lid Off IRS Behavior

Farmer Builds DIY Solution to Stop Grain Bin Deaths

The Great Shame: Mississippi Delta 2019 Flood of Hell and High Water

Breaking Bad: Chasing the Wildest Con Artist in Farming History

Corn Maverick: Cracking the Mystery of 60-Inch Rows

Blood And Dirt: A Farmer’s 30-Year Fight With The Feds

American Farmer Snuffed Out Saddam Hussein

Against All Odds: Farmer Survives Epic Ordeal

Agriculture’s Darkest Fraud Hidden Under Dirt and Lies

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 19:15:23 GMT

Stronger cattle prices combined with the recent run-up in crop prices aren’t enough to outweigh concerns about the impact high input prices will have on farmers this year and into 2024. While most economists agree the next 12 months could produce more financial challenges for agriculture, views vary on how much financial pressure producers will see and offer differing opinions on the U.S. crop production picture and commodity/feed prices.

The results are part of the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a new survey of nearly 50 agricultural economists from across the country. It’s the first survey of its kind, collecting insights from economists who represent both the private and public sectors. The economists represent the ag sector across a wide geography and also have expertise in grains, livestock and policy.

The survey is conducted anonymously to allow the highly respected agricultural economists to speak more openly about their economic and production forecasts since their responses won’t be attributed to the university, company or organization they represent. The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal . The university conducts the survey, collects and crunches the data while Farm Journal distributes the results.

Main Takeaways from the June Survey

Highlights from the first Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor include:

The perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture is trending lower and is expected to continue to decline over the next 12 months.
Production costs, global competition, geopolitical risks, drought and demand headwinds are among the main drivers.
The majority of agricultural economists expect farm income to drift lower, with some expecting levels to land closer to the five-year average in 2024.
High production expenses are the biggest obstacle in 2023.
2023 crop yield estimates vary widely among the economists surveyed.
Economists expect crop prices to drift lower in 2023 and 2024.
Beef cow supplies are forecast to continue to decline this year.

A Current and Future Snapshot of the Agriculture Economy

The monitor shows the perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture has moved slightly lower over the past year, and economists expect that trend to continue over the next 12 months.

(Farm Journal)

The main drivers of the waning outlook include production costs, global competition, geopolitical risks, drought and domestic demand for agricultural commodities.

“I think what’s most surprising is that, on average, those more than 40 economists are in alignment with the more general perception of where agriculture is heading,” says Scott Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, who helps author the survey. “What surprised me is the amount of volatility around that average estimate. It just reminds me there’s so many issues at play today, and when trying to predict or suggest the future, even these economists have a wide opinion in terms of where we’re headed in different commodities.”

Falling Net Farm Income

The Monthly Monitor shows all respondents expect farm income to decline from the record level of 2022 for 2023 and 2024. The range of survey responses is what produced the most volatility, with responses varying by as much as $51 billion from the highest to the lowest estimate.

Some economists are projecting farm income levels to return to the 2017-21 average in 2024. The main driver for 2023 forecasts is the expectation for higher production expenses. The biggest factor for the waning outlook in 2024 is the outlook for lower commodity prices.

“It seemed like cattle was the most optimistic commodity out of the mix,” Brown says. “I think there was still some expectation that corn and soybean prices could stay on the higher end, but generally there’s less optimism than coming off the records we would have seen back in 2022. That’s when farm income was a little north of $160 billion, and when you look at some of the forecasts for 2024 in our survey, it’s closer to $120 billion on average. Some are even suggesting farm income levels could fall back to where we were pre-2020, so pre-COVID.”

(Farm Journal)

Wide Range of Yield Estimates

Ahead of USDA’s updated look at planted acres in the June acreage report set to be released Friday, economists don’t see many big changes compared with what farmers intended to plant in March. According to the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, the average survey result was 92.05 million planted acres for corn, which is up slightly from the 92 million acres reported by USDA’s farmer survey in March. The range included 90.5 million acres on the low end and 93 million acres on the high end.

Economists think farmers planted 87.98 million acres of soybeans this spring, slightly higher than the 87.5 million acres reported in March. The highest estimate was 89 million acres of soybeans, with the lowest estimate of 87 million acres.

In March, USDA reported farmers intended to plant 11.26 million acres of cotton. The survey showed economists think with the weather challenges in areas such as Texas, cotton farmers actually planted 11.24 million acres, with the maximum response of 11.9 million and 10.95 million on the low end.

Brown points out the yield variation largely depends on upcoming weather, but the dry weather is creating a wide range of yield estimates this year. According to respondents in June, the average estimate for yield includes:

Corn: 178.68 bu. per acre versus 181.5 bu. per acre (USDA’s current estimate)
Soybeans: 51.06 bu. per acre versus 52 bu. per acre
Wheat: 44.47 bu. per acre versus 44.9 bu. per acre
Sorghum: 68.17 bu. per acre versus 69.2 bu. per acre
Cotton: 855.18 pounds versus 841 pounds

“I think when you look at both corn and soybean acres, there wasn’t a lot of deviation from the Prospective Plantings report USDA came out with a few months ago, so we didn’t see a big change there,” Brown says. “On the yield side, there are certainly some differences. The average yield estimate, on the corn side from the survey was a little more than 178 bu. per acre, with a downside of 175 bu. Likewise on soybeans, that came in at about 51 bu. per acre. Both corn and soybeans are below where USDA currently sees yields. I will say those are going to change quickly as we look at weather and what’s occurred since the survey would have gone out roughly a week ago now.”

(Farm Journal)

Economists also expect crop prices to decline this year and next; however, there is a wide range in estimates signaling volatility will continue.

The average corn price is estimated to hit $4.99 per bushel for the current crop year and $4.74 for 2024/2025. The high range of the estimate for this year is $6 per bushel, with a low of $4.25 per bushel. Soybeans are also expected to trend lower, with an average estimate of $12.52 per bushel this year. The high came in at $14 per bushel. The low estimate was $10.85 per bushel. The average estimate for 2024/2025 is $11.90 per bushel.

Wheat prices are estimated to average $7.63 per bushel this year, with a low of $7 and a high of $8.49. The average estimate for wheat prices in 2024/2025 is $7.10 per bushel, with a high of $8 and a low of $6.49.

(Farm Journal)

Mixed Outlook on Livestock

The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked economists to provide estimates about beef cow inventory as of July 1, which is a report USDA will release on July 21. Economists who responded expect cow inventory to fall to 30 million head, which represents a decline of 1.2%.

Respondents also see fed cattle prices in 2024 trending to over $181 per hundredweight. But responses also produced high volatility, with one economist even thinking fed cattle prices will average above $195 per hundredweight in 2024.

Most everyone expects a contraction,” Brown says. “With the dry weather we’ve had in cattle country, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, to name a few, I think we will continue to see fewer beef cows when we get that report out in mid-July. There were some who are even calling for larger declines than the nearly 30 million head. It reminds me we’re going to get tighter, and we’re not done talking about record cattle prices if these forecasts hold true.”

(Farm Journal)

Economists are less optimistic about hog prices and milk prices producers will receive this year.

Ahead of the next Hogs and Pigs report from USDA later this week, economists think the breeding hog inventory will be 99.27%, compared to 100.5% one year ago. Economists are more bullish when it comes to exports, but not enough to improve their outlook on hog prices.

“They weren’t as optimistic on cattle or dairy,” says Brown. “When you look at what they were saying for 2024 hog prices, still, the average was below $61. Which if costs stay where they are today, that means red ink continues into 2024. Likewise, the projected all milk price for 2024 is $20.50 in our survey. That probably also makes red ink in 2024.”

The Likelihood of a U.S. Recession

Another major economic indicator for livestock producers is the general economy, as it historically has a direct impact on domestic demand. Of those surveyed, economists expect interest rates to move up 2% over the next six months.

“Although there was a wide range of responses, most economists felt the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession and will not enter one during 2023,” Brown says. “I will point out, though, there appears to be continued uncertainty about the expected general economy health for 2023, given survey responses.”

The majority of economists “somewhat disagree” the U.S. will enter into a recession this year. While at least eight economists say they “somewhat agree” a recession is looming yet this year.

(Farm Journal)

Looking Ahead to July

The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey is a current snapshot of economists’ views. The survey will be sent to participating economists just days after USDA releases its WASDE report each month. Less than two weeks later, the results will be released.

“It is fairly current, but I’ll just say weather matters a lot, as we talked about, especially with yields. We’ll see how this changes, being able to now come back to the same group and ask what they expect corn and soybean yields to be in another few weeks. We’ll also have the first survey under our belt, and it will be interesting to watch those changes,” Brown says.

Looking to the second survey, Brown says he’s interested in watching changes to the crop-yield side of the equation. Longer-term, he thinks the monthly monitor will reveal bigger trends about the general economic health across all of agriculture and how those forecasts change from month to month.

“I’m really curious to watch [the general economic health] as we get more observations, and see what July looks like relative to June in terms of overall economic health,” he says. “I’m curious to watch as this group of experts continues to digest what’s happening in agriculture.”

Is El Niño to Thank for the Recent Rains in the Drought-Stricken Plains?

Wed, 03 May 2023 16:40:49 GMT

Farmers in the Southern Plains are finally starting to see some much-needed moisture hit their fields. While it may be too late to save the winter wheat, it’s a hopeful sign for farmers who needed the rain to even plant summer crops like corn and cotton. However, a USDA meteorologist says the rains can’t be attributed to the onset of El Niño quite yet.

The National Weather Service (NWS) says the 30-day rainfall totals vary greatly in parts of the region. For Oklahoma, the totals include:

Cheyenne: 1.82 inches, with 1.01 of that in the past week
Altus: 1.01 inches
Woodward: 2.25 inches
Norman: 3.87 inches

Nice rain last week! 2.25 inches over three days. I’m planting milo today. Byron, OK.
— Steve Clark (@CoopSteve) May 3, 2023

The rainfall hasn’t been as bountiful in Texas, with the NWS telling AgWeb most of Lubbock received a half-inch of rain or less so far this week. Lubbock also saw .03 inches of rain on April 23.

Amarillo received a little more rain in April, with the official total from the NWS at .95 inches. For May to date, Amarillo has seen .01 inches of rain, but there is another chance of rain tonight.

Is the recent rainfall a sign of change, or can we thank El Niño for the moisture that’s fallen the past couple of weeks? USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the chances of an El Niño this summer are growing, but that’s not what’s bringing in the recent rains.

“We do have El Niño in the offering, but we can’t say that El Niño is there yet, nor can we say that this is the cause for that,” says Rippey. “If anything, this just appears to be a storm that got a little bit off the normal storm track of being through Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas and brought some much-needed rainfall, 1 inch to 3 inches in some areas.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey points out the rainfall has been extremely spotty, so the totals vary greatly from not only town to town, but from farm to farm. The little moisture that’s fallen in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas is a welcome sign; however, it’s not near enough to eat away at the long-lasting drought.

“I’d like to have seen a little bit more widespread rain. But honestly, at this point we’ll take what we can get both for winter grains and for the upcoming summer crop season. And for drought-stressed rangeland and pastures which need a lot more help than just one storm to try to bounce back from a year or more of punishing drought,” says Rippey.

7:55 pm radar update. A line of thunderstorms packing wind gusts up to 65 mph and quarter-sized hail is moving northeast through the western and southern South Plains. # lubwx #txwx pic.twitter.com/uxJWD6U8js
— NWS Lubbock (@NWSLubbock) May 3, 2023

Rippey says he is still concerned about high winds and the potential for more dust storms in parts of Texas. With the drought still parked over the area, along with the ongoing chances for high winds, conditions could be ripe for potential problems.

Related Story:

As El Niño Makes Its Grand Return, Here’s What It Tells Us About Summer Weather and Corn Yields

How the $1.7 Trillion Omnibus Spending Package Might Impact Your Operation

Tue, 20 Dec 2022 17:19:29 GMT

Text of the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package was released early Tuesday morning. The Senate will vote first and intends to pass the measure before Thursday, leaving the House no time to demand changes before the Christmas holiday.

Here are the details that might impact your farm:

Disaster Relief

• $250 million in aid to rice producers and $100 million to cotton merchandisers to make up for losses related to the pandemic or supply chain disruptions. USDA previously provided $80 million in aid to textile mills and other cotton users. For rice, USDA would determine payment rates based on yield history and acreage.

• $40.6 billion for drought, hurricanes, flooding, wildfire, natural disasters and other matters — $3.7 billion in disaster aid for farmers to cover 2022 crop and livestock losses.

Food Aid

• Funds two programs that provide foreign food aid. These include the Food for Peace Program (PL 480), which is funded at $1.8 billion, and the McGovern-Dole International Food for Education Program, which is funded at $248 million, for an increase of $11 million over fiscal year 2022.

• Summer Meals Program Modernization: Updates the summer food service program to permanently allow states to provide non-congregate meals and summer electronic benefit (EBT) options nationwide to eligible children in addition to meals provided at congregate feeding sites. Non-congregate meals, such as grab-and-go or home delivery, would be provided in rural areas to eligible children, and summer EBT benefits would be capped at $40 per child per month. This provision is fully offset and based largely on the Hunger-Free Summer for Kids Act, which Boozman authored and introduced earlier this Congress.

• Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) EBT Skimming Regulations and Reimbursement: Requires USDA to coordinate with relevant agencies and stakeholders to investigate reports of stolen SNAP benefits through card skimming, cloning and other similar fraudulent methods. This provision aims to identify the extent of the problem, develop methods to prevent fraud and improve security measures, and provide replacement of benefits stolen through these fraudulent actions.

Conservation

• Cracks down on “conservation easements,” which allow tax breaks when land is dedicated for conservation purposes. The IRS has identified the transactions as a method for avoiding taxes. The conservation easement provision was expected to raise between $6 billion and $7 billion.

• SUSTAINS Act: Enacts a House bill that allows corporations and other private entities to contribute funding for conservation projects and authorizes USDA to match up to 75% in matching the donations.

Inputs

• Pesticide Registration Improvement Act (PRIA 5) Reauthorization: Reauthorizes pesticide registration and review process user-fee programs administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and increases registration and maintenance fees to support a more predictable regulatory process, create additional process improvements, and provide resources for safety, training, bilingual labeling, and other services to advance the safe and effective use of pesticides.

• Pesticide Registration Review Deadline Extension: Extends deadline for EPA to complete registration review decisions for all pesticide products registered as of October 1, 2007. EPA is facing a significant backlog of pesticide registrations due to a variety of factors over the past several years, which raises potential implications for continued access to numerous crop protection tools. The agency will be allowed to continue its registration review work through October 1, 2026, as a result of this extension.

Climate

• Growing Climate Solutions Act: Incorporates updated language from the Growing Climate Solutions Act, which directs USDA to establish a program to register entities that provide technical assistance and verification for farmers, ranchers and foresters who participate in voluntary carbon markets with the goal of providing information and confidence to producers.

Farm Business

• $1.92 billion for farm programs, which is $55 million above the fiscal year 2022 enacted level. This includes $61 million to resolve ownership and succession of farmland issues, also known as heirs’ property issues. This funding will continue support for various farm, conservation, and emergency loan programs, and help American farmers and ranchers. It will also meet estimates of demand for farm loan programs.

• Funding for specialty crops and remarks on crop insurance/A&O. Some $25 million is being made available for specialty crop equitable relief and report language directing USDA to use its legal authority to index all A&O (crop insurance program) for inflation and provide equitable relief for specialty crops going forward.

Livestock

• Livestock Mandatory Reporting Extension (LMR) Extension: Extends livestock mandatory reporting requirements until September 30, 2023. LMR requires meat packers and importers to report the prices they pay for cattle, hogs, and sheep purchased for slaughter and prices received for meats derived from such species to USDA who then publishes daily, weekly, and monthly public reports detailing these transactions.

Markets

• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Whistleblower Program Extension: Enables CFTC to continue payment of salaries, customer education initiatives and non-awards expenses related to the whistleblower program to ensure it can continue to function even when awards obligated to whistleblowers exceed the program fund’s balance at the time of distribution.

Some ag sector items that did NOT make the omnibus package:

Nothing for the proposed farmworker labor reforms from Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and others. The bill also left out legislation to reform cattle markets or appoint a special investigator at USDA to investigate possible anti-competitive behavior in the meatpacking sector.

We’ll be updating this article as more details become available.

More on policy :

Water Resources Bill Reauthorized with a Component that Will Impact Producers
European Union Clinches a Deal on a Carbon Border Tax
U.S.'s “Candid” GMO Corn Conversation With Mexico Results In Changes To Looming Trade Dispute
Senate Clears Annual Defense Policy, Pushing $858 Billion to Military

Feeding Whole Cotton Plants to Cattle?

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

By Blair Fannin, Texas AgriLife Extension

Texas beef producers are exploring the use of whole cotton plants as a protein source for cattle due to extreme drought conditions, according to a Texas AgriLife Extension Service expert.

“Due to the continued extreme drought, many cattle producers are examining new options for feeding cattle instead of traditional grass hay,” said Dr. Larry Redmon, AgriLife Extension state forage specialist in College Station. “One new item with little nutritive value information is grazing unharvested cotton plants, baled whole cotton plants, (which) are simply baled cotton.”

Several livestock producers have inquired about crude protein value in cotton plants as well as energy content, Redmon said.

“In many places where cotton lint yield was so low, many people were considering baling their whole cotton plants and feeding it to their cattle or grazing the standing cotton.”

Redmon said he had never had the question before, but received some fresh cotton plant samples for analysis. Additionally, Dr. Tryon Wickersham, Texas AgriLife Research nutritionist in College Station, began testing cotton plant samples that he collected as well. Wickersham’s samples had already been defoliated or had been baled and were being fed directly as the cotton module.

The preliminary results were quite interesting, Wickersham said.

“Although a non-traditional feedstuff for cattle, the presence of the cotton seed with its high fat content and cellulose (lint) provides for a fairly high quality feedstuff,” Wickersham said. “The fat content is quite a bit higher than would normally be fed to beef cattle and some scouring may occur, but the animals do well with the cotton diet.”

Preliminary results included the following:

Fresh whole cotton plants, including stems, leaves and bolls: crude protein 13.3 percent, total digestible nutrients 62.4 percent.
Whole cotton plants including stems and bolls, but minus the leaves: crude protein 11.2 percent, total digestible nutrients 58.8 percent.
Cotton and seeds from a harvested cotton module: crude protein 15.6 percent, total digestible nutrients 59.4 percent.

Wickersham suggests the cotton could be used as a source of supplemental energy.

Meanwhile, Dr. Gaylon Morgan, AgriLife Extension state cotton specialist, notes most cotton defoliation or desiccation products prohibit grazing or feeding to livestock feed for at least 30 days to 45 days.

“We recommend referring to the product label to ensure the minimum labels restrictions are met,” Morgan said.

Redmon said weather conditions are not forecast to improve in the near future and those who continue to hold cattle during these unprecedented drought conditions will find it difficult to find hay.

“They will also pay extremely high prices for hay they do find, and can set themselves up for significant environmental damages by keeping animals in pastures that are devoid of any ground cover,” Redmon said. “As reluctant as we are to sell cattle, the best option from an economic and ecological standpoint is likely to simply sell out.”

Redmon also advises a sample of any cotton or cotton plants to be grazed should be analyzed for nutritive value prior to feeding or grazing.

After the Bell: Grain Markets Rally Ahead of Holiday

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:58:17 GMT

Corn: Corn futures posted gains of 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents through the May contract today, but that was midrange. Corn futures followed the soybean and wheat markets higher, but futures backed well off session highs as midday weather models signaled temps won’t be as hot as previously thought across the Corn Belt.

Soybeans: Soybean futures gapped higher overnight and sharply extended to the upside, but gains were pared late as the U.S. midday weather model signaled temps won’t be as hot as previously expected across the Corn Belt. Futures still ended 20 1/4 to 26 cents higher through the March contract.

Wheat: Spring wheat futures settled 33 1/4 to 44 1/4 cents higher, while winter wheat ended mostly 28 to 30 cents higher. While that was off session highs, it was still a high-range close. Weather was and will likely remain the story in the wheat market. Spring wheat condition ratings have plummeted amid hot, dry weather and the forecast calls for more of the same through mid-July.

Cotton: Cotton futures finished modestly lower Monday amid a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar. Cotton futures ignored strong gains in the grain and soy markets. A drop in crop condition ratings last week, still-strong export demand and USDA’s lower-than-expected cotton plantings estimate helped the market rally last Friday.

Cattle: Live cattle futures ended 32 1/2 to 55 cents lower through the December contract. Feeder cattle finished $1.25 to $1.82 1/2 lower through the January contract. Cattle futures firmed on modest corrective buying last week, but the upside is likely to remain limited this week.

Hogs: July lean hog futures finished 7 1/2 cents higher today. The August through December contracts posted gains of 65 cents to $1.10. Traders quickly digested the Hogs & Pigs (H&P) Report and continued to narrow the discount summer-month contracts hold to the cash index. Traders will keep a close eye on the pork market for signs of post-holiday features

Devastating Drought: Texas Farmers Say 2021 Drought Already Rivals 2011

Fri, 16 Apr 2021 14:01:26 GMT

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows from North Dakota to Texas, all the way west to California, the most severe levels of drought didn’t ease across the U.S. this past week.

While 62% of the country is seeing some level of dryness, a 2-point improvement in a week, the most extreme level of drought grew, now covering more than 9% of the country.

(Farm Journal)

Texas Extremes

All levels of drought are painted across the Texas U.S. Drought monitor. Only 8% of the state is drought-free, with 8.5% in the exceptional drought category. Around one-quarter of the state is seeing extreme drought conditions.

West Texas farmers are preparing themselves for a possible devastating impact to the 2021 crop.

“We’re extremely dry,” says Blake Fennell, a farmer in Earth, Texas. “I would say we’re giving 2011 a run for its money, but we’re probably drier than 2011 at this point.”

2011 is a year that sticks in many farmers minds in the West Texas and Texas Panhandle area. That’s when consecutive days of 100-degree temperatures, with no rainfall, meant pivots couldn’t even make it a full circle without crops shriveling up. And the dryland crop was nil.

Too Dry to Plant

The West Texas farmer says his area hasn’t’ seen significant rain fall in nearly two years.

“We’ve still got to give that crop every chance we think we can get, but at the same time, we also can’t waste a lot of money on a crop that we don’t think we’re going to have going into it,” he says.

(Farm Journal)

Cotton Crop Worries

From monitoring inputs closely, to parked planters just waiting on Mother Nature to possibly produce moisture to even get the crop out of the ground, it’s a battle that farmers in the area say will be fought all year.

“If we don’t get any significant rainfall within the next two, three or four weeks, it’s going to have a very significant impact on the cotton crop in West Texas,” Fennell says . “A 1"or 1.5" rainfall event is not going to cure the problems we’re facing today.”

Fennell says the expectations for the West Texas cotton crop are also grim.

“Abandonment looks like it’s going to be pretty high this year, just for the simple fact that there is no ground moisture to get this crop emerged,” he says.

Storm Delivers Latest Blow to Farm Economy as Elevators Shut

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:49:51 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- America’s agricultural economy is bracing for yet another hit as Tropical Storm Barry barrels toward Louisiana, with grain elevators, cotton fields and cane crops in its projected path.

Cargill Inc., an agribusiness giant and America’s largest closely held company, said it shuttered its Louisiana export grain elevators on Thursday in anticipation of the storm. The Gulf of Mexico is a key region for U.S. agriculture exports, with almost half of this year’s grain shipments loading along the Mississippi River, government inspections data show. The state is also home to corn, sorghum and soybean crops.

Mother Nature has been merciless to American farmers this year. Incessant rains have washed out farms, flooded rural Midwestern towns and waterways, hampering the flow of agricultural products and hindered plantings in the first half of 2019. The weather woes come as crop prices have stayed depressed amid the U.S.-China trade war and hefty supply gluts.

The industry’s wrestling with “very late plantings, the latest we’ve had certainly for corn, and you follow that too with the weather,” Cargill Chief Financial Officer David Dines said in a telephone interview Thursday. “It’s a challenging time. We’ve navigated it relatively well. But for example, we’ve had to close down two facilities to get ready for Tropical Storm Barry that’s coming. In some ways, it may be more acute this year.”

Climate change has brought increased risks to agriculture from floods, storms, drought and heat. While America’s crop belt suffered from a deluge, wheat growers in parts of Europe have had to deal with scorching temperatures and dry conditions.

In Louisiana, local prices signal the market is positioning for supply disruptions from the storm as shipping is grinding to a halt along the southern reaches of the Mississippi River. The soybean basis in the Gulf jumped 5.3% on Thursday, the steepest climb since June 7, to 50 cents a bushel, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. The figure measures the amount above futures that buyers are willing to pay.

Prices for soybeans at elevators in New Orleans climbed a fourth straight day, the longest streak since June 17.

Cotton plants in the southern portions of the Mississippi Delta region could be badly affected by the storm, according to Don Keeney, a senior agricultural meteorologist with Maxar in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Sugar cane is also likely to get serious damage from flooding, while corn may face “a little bit of wind damage,” he said.

Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi -- each of which are in Barry’s path -- accounted for most of the rice grown in the U.S. last year. In top-producer Arkansas, heavy rain expected to arrive by Sunday could disrupt crop development, Jarrod Hardke, an agronomist at the University of Arkansas, said. Rice crops already were struggling after rains delayed spring plantings and then were hit with high temperatures.

Cushion the Blow

The impact on futures markets could be limited, though. There’s plenty of U.S. cotton in inventory that can help cushion the blow of supply loss, and the region is not a major global supplier of sugar and corn.

Still, U.S. cotton plantings have already been hampered by wet conditions this year, and storms present an additional threat, Michael Deliberto, an agricultural professor at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, said by email.

What’s more, since crops are still in early development stages and pretty far from being ready to harvest, there’s little farmers can do to prevent damage except make sure that their drainage systems are open and that any equipment is on high ground, said Kyle McCann, assistant to the president of the Louisiana Farm Bureau.

(Updates with comment on rice crops)

--With assistance from Kevin Varley, Shruti Date Singh and Michael Hirtzer.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mario Parker in Chicago at mparker22@bloomberg.net;Denitsa Tsekova in New York at dtsekova@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Attwood at jattwood3@bloomberg.net, Millie Munshi

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Texas Counties Designated Disaster Areas

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:33:41 GMT

Source: USDA

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has designated 213 counties in Texas as primary natural disaster areas after one of the worst droughts in more than a century. The state sustained excessive heat, high winds and wildfires that burned hundreds of thousands of acres.

“Many producers have lost their crops due to the devastation caused by the drought and wildfires,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “President Obama and I want these farmers and ranchers to know that we will support them through the recovery process and help them once again become productive suppliers of food, fiber and fuel that keep America prospering. This designation will help provide that support.”

The drought, wildfires and other natural disasters — which began Jan. 1, 2011, and continues — caused 30 percent or more loss of forage crops, pasture, corn, oats and wheat.

Follow this link to the full list of counties eligible: http://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDAOC-9c1d f

Farmers and ranchers in other Texas counties and some counties in Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma also qualify for natural disaster assistance because their counties are contiguous with affected Texas counties.

All counties listed above were designated natural disaster areas June 24, 2011, making all qualified farm operators in the designated areas eligible for low interest emergency (EM) loans from USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA), provided eligibility requirements are met. Farmers in eligible counties have eight months from the date of the declaration to apply for loans to help cover part of their actual losses. FSA will consider each loan application on its own merits, taking into account the extent of losses, security available and repayment ability. FSA has a variety of programs, in addition to the EM loan program, to help eligible farmers recover from adversity.

USDA also has made other programs available to assist farmers and ranchers, including the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program (SURE), which was approved as part of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008; the Emergency Conservation Program; Federal Crop Insurance; and the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program. Interested farmers may contact their local USDA Service Centers for further information on eligibility requirements and application procedures for these and other programs. Additional information is also available online at http://disaster.fsa.usda.gov .

Lawmakers to EPA: You Have A Problem in Farm Country

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:32:00 GMT

If Thursday’s Senate Ag Committee hearing on EPA regulations was any indications, the agency has a major public relations campaign it needs to undertake in farm country. EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson was greeted with lawmaker charges of “regulations run amok” or the perception of regulations run amok in the U.S. ag community. And those complaints didn’t come just from Republicans -- Democrats were equally as critical of the agency’s regulatory bent.

Senate Ag Committee Chair Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) expressed disappointment to Jackson over “vague, overreaching and unnecessarily burdensome EPA regulation” on agriculture in her opening remarks. “Right now, at a time when every American feels anxious about his or her own economic future and the economic future of the country, our farmers, ranchers, and foresters are facing, as I count them, at least 10 new regulatory requirements,” Lincoln stated. “Each of which will add to their cost, making it harder for them to compete in a world that is marked by stiff and usually unfair competition. And most, if not all, of these regulations rely on dubious rationales and, as a consequence, will be of questionable benefit to the goal of conservation and environmental protection.”

Lincoln called on Jackson and EPA to use “common-sense goals, instead of using the command and control, top-down approach that this Administration has relied on thus far.” Further, she urged Jackson to “work together with the agriculture community to set these common-sense goals, instead of using the command and control, top-down approach that this Administration has relied on thus far.”

And Lincoln wasn’t alone. the panel’s ranking Republican Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) also raised regulatory concerns with the EPA chief, noting examples of the more than 20 different efforts underway at EPA that affect agriculture. “No one disputes the need or desire for clean air and water, bountiful habitat and healthy landscapes,” he noted. “But at some point, which I believe we are getting dangerously close to, regulatory burdens on farmers and ranchers will hinder rather than help them become better stewards of the land and more bountiful producers of food, fiber and fuel.”

Other lawmakers raised several specific examples of EPA regulations that are creating concern in farm country like rules or proposals on dust, spray drift and more, imploring Jackson and her agency to step back and really consider the impact of their decisions on agriculture.

For her part, Jackson sought to reassure lawmakers that her agency wasn’t “targeting” farmers with their regulatory plans, nor did she have an “agenda” she was pursuing. And each lawmaker concern was met with assurances from Jackson that EPA would work with the ag industry and farm-state lawmakers when it came to the various regulatory issues raised at the hearing.

Still, given the bipartisan concerns expressed during the hearing, it is clear that EPA has got a major perception problem in farm country -- one that will take action, not just promises, to help ease these concerns.

Another issue lawmakers focused on in the hearing is the still-awaited decision by EPA on whether to allow up to 15% ethanol (E15) in the nation’s fuel supply.

Jackson told lawmakers that the Dept. of Energy (DOE) was going to deliver results of engine tests to EPA by the end of this month and that EPA would then announce a decision on E15 being allowed in cars 2007 and newer within two weeks after receiving that data. As for 2001-2006 cars, Jackson informed the tests were still ongoing and that DOE was not expecting to deliver the results to EPA until the end of 2010. However, DOE Secretary Stephen Chu said at a separate Washington event that his agency would deliver the test results to EPA by the end of November.

But no matter which official is right, a decision on the “older” cars -- those made in 2001-2006 -- won’t be made until late-2010 or early 2011. And Jackson also said that there are no tests underway on vehicles older than 2001.

USDA Accepts 4.3 Million Acres into CRP via Signup 39

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 05:31:56 GMT

USDA accepted offers on approximately 4.3 million acres into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) via general signup 39 held Aug. 2-27, 2010. USDA received around 50,000 offers totaling 4.8 million acres, officials said today.

This will mean that on Oct. 1, 2010, there will be approximately 31.2 million acres in the CRP, leaving space for around 800,000 acres in the CRP. That’s based on 4.459 million acres of CRP contracts maturing as of Sept. 30, 2010. And CRP continues as a popular program as officials detailed that 57% of acres offered for enrollment during signup 39 were under CRP contracts already that were to mature as of Sept. 30, 2010. And since they were under a CRP contract, FSA deems those acres as meeting the requirement of being cropped four of the six years from 2002 through 2007. In a teleconference with reporters, FSA officials said that the average rental rate on contracts accepted in the 39th signup is $46.03 per acre. As for future plans for the program in terms of another general signup, officials did not commit to one but noted that USDA Sec. Tom Vilsack has “made it clear” he wants to see the level of acres in the program to be “close to the statutory cap” of 32 million acres. USDA selected offers for enrollment based on an Environmental Benefits Index (EBI) comprised of five environmental factors plus cost. The five environmental factors are: (1) wildlife enhancement, (2) water quality, (3) soil erosion, (4) enduring benefits, and (5) air quality. The minimal acceptable EBI level for this signup is 200.

Changing Climate Pattern not Good News for the South

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 21:22:00 GMT

Weather is tough to predict short term, let alone long term. But unlike meteorologist, climatologist look at different factors including historical records, natural events and other factors to predict climate change and find trends in weather patterns. It appears that following 2006, we entered a new pattern. One with warmer and drier weather in the South and a wet Midwest, according to historical climatologist Evelyn Browning-Gariss.

That wasn’t great news to drought-plagued Texas producers attending the Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course in College Station, Tex., earlier this week where Browning-Gariss told attendees that we’re entering a time period of about 15 more years where dry, hot weather in the South will be more the rule than the exception. Those factors impacting today’s climate include: large and moderate volcanic eruptions, retreating and remnants of La Nina and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (where the unusually warm Atlantic Ocean and Gulf warms the air above it).

She explained that the last time that the natural factors were aligned like today’s factors, we experienced:

Summer heat waves in California, the South, and the east Coast and wet conditions in the Midwest.
Problems with hydro-electricity in the South
A busy hurricanes season with 3 hits in the Gulf
A cold winter
A wet harvest season in the Midwest
Enough western rainfall to fill reservoirs to provide hydroelectricity

While the news wasn’t great to hear, it does allow producers to take the information and use it for long term planning. Knowing, for example, that conditions will be dry rather than wet, producers in the South can adjust crop planting decisions and livestock producers can adjust stocking rates and make feed purchasing decisions.

Also times of dry weather can give landowners and states an opportunity to repair ponds, reservoirs and water holding tanks to capture water when it does rain. And there’s hope that El Nino will return and bring better chances for rain in the South.

http://browningnewsletter.com/

PF Analysts: USDA Cuts Cotton Carryover to Record-Low Level

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 20:54:55 GMT

From Pro Farmer

Note: Pro Farmer Members can see Pro Farmer’s full report reaction on the Pro Farmer page under “Top Stories.” To become a member, call 1-800-772-0023 for more information.

Following is a condensed version of the Pro Farmer report reaction:

** 2010-11 U.S. CARRYOVER **

CORN: 675 million bu.; unch from Mar. proj. of 675 million bu.
-- compares to 1.708 billion bu. in 2009-10
BEANS: 140 million bu.; unch from Mar. proj. of 140 million bu.
-- compares to 151 million bu. in 2009-10
WHEAT: 839 million bu.; down from Mar. proj. of 843 million bu.
-- compares to 976 million bu. in 2009-10
COTTON: 1.6 million bales; down from Mar. proj. of 1.9 mil. bales
-- compares to 2.95 million bales in 2009-10

** GLOBAL CARRYOVER **

CORN: 122.43 MMT; down from 123.14 MMT in March
-- 145.80 MMT in 2009-10
BEANS: 60.94 MMT; up from 58.33 MMT in March
-- 58.88 MMT in 2009-10
WHEAT: 182.83 MMT; up from 181.90 MMT in March
-- 197.91 MMT in 2009-10
COTTON: 41.55 mil. bales; down from 42.33 mil. bales in March
-- 43.99 mil. bales in 2009-10

** GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS **

ARGENTINA BEANS: 49.5 MMT; compares to 49.5 MMT in March
-- 54.5 MMT in 2009-10
BRAZIL BEANS: 72.0 MMT; compares to 70.0 MMT in March
-- 69.0 MMT in 2009-10
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 15.0 MMT; compares to 15.0 MMT in March
-- 11.0 MMT in 2009-10
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 26.0 MMT; compares to 26.0 MMT in March
-- 21.92 MMT in 2009-10
CHINA WHEAT: 114.5 MMT; compares to 114.5 MMT in March
-- 115.12 MMT in 2009-10
CANADA WHEAT: 23.17 MMT; compares to 23.17 MMT in March
-- 26.85 MMT in 2009-10
EU-27 WHEAT: 136.08 MMT; compares to 136.08 MMT in March
-- 138.05 MMT in 2009-10
RUSSIA WHEAT: 41.51 MMT; compares to 41.50 MMT in March
-- 61.77 MMT in 2009-10
FSU-12 WHEAT: 80.97 MMT; compares to 80.97 MMT in March
-- 113.93 MMT in 2009-10
CHINA CORN: 168.0 MMT; compares to 168.0 MMT in March
-- 158.0 MMT in 2009-10
ARGENTINA CORN: 22.0 MMT; compares to 22.0 MMT in March
-- 22.8 MMT in 2009-10
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 12.0 MMT; compares to 12.5 MMT in March
-- 13.42 MMT in 2009-10
BRAZIL CORN: 55.0 MMT; compares to 53.0 MMT in March
-- 56.1 MMT in 2009-10
CHINA COTTON: 29.5 mil. bales; compares to 29.5 mil. bales in March
-- 32.0 mil. bales in 2009-10

First Thing Today: All Eyes on USDA Reports

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:35:22 GMT

Position evening preceding reports... Corn futures are up a penny after a quiet overnight session. Soybeans enjoyed gains at times overnight, but the market is currently trading low-range and steady to down a penny. Winter wheat futures are fractionally to 2 cents higher amid some corrective short-covering. The U.S. dollar index is up slightly, while crude oil futures are under light pressure.

Much-anticipated acreage and grain stocks data out today... Traders surveyed by Reuters expect USDA’s Prospective Planting Report to show farmers plan to hike soybean plantings to 88.214 million acres this growing season at the expense of corn and spring wheat, which are expected to come in around 90.969 million acres and 11.358 million acres, respectively. Cotton planting intentions are also expected to climb notably from 2016 to 11.409 million acres. March 1 grain stocks are anticipated to be hefty, with traders expecting corn stocks of 8.534 billion bu. (highest on record), soybean stocks of 1.684 billion bu. (second highest on record) and wheat stocks of 1.627 billion bushels (highest since 1988). USDA will release this data at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Two executive orders coming today on trade policy... President Donald Trump is slated to sign two executive orders today. The first would direct his administration to look at the underlying causes of U.S. trade deficits with China and other countries. The second would instruct Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly to strengthen the collection of penalties on unfairly traded foreign goods. The mandates come a week before Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.

Heavy rains threaten Argentine crops... A frontal boundary moving across central Argentina is expected to bring heavy rainfall over the weekend, with meteorologists at BAMWX.com noting that widespread accumulation totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible in western production regions with local amounts of up to 12 inches possible. Obviously, this poses the threat of flooding and crop damage.

AgroConsult hikes bean crop peg following tour... Following its crop tour through main growing regions of Brazil, AgroConsult hiked its soybean crop estimate for the country by 2.3 MMT to 113.3 MMT. The consultancy noted record average soybean yields and near-perfect weather. Brazil will likely ship 61.4 MMT of soybeans in 2017, according to AgroConsult. This is up 400,000 MT from its projection earlier this month. AgroConsult maintained its estimate of Brazil’s corn crop at 95 MMT, which would be a record. Also of note, the consultancy’s chief analyst says grain storage may be a problem this year.

Stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing growth... China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed by 0.2 points from February to 51.8 in March, the highest reading since April 2012 and above the 50.0-point mark that separates contraction from expansion in the factory sector. This also topped expectations for a steady reading in March. New orders climbed 0.3 points to 53.3.

A rise in India’s currency creating export opportunities for others... A rise in India’s currency makes imported cotton cheaper than domestic supplies. Therefore, senior industry officials and executives expect the country’s cotton imports to surge 36% to 3 million bales this season. The elevated rupee has also slowed India’s exports of the fiber, with some projecting it will export just 5 million bales in 2016-17, down 30% from year-ago. Pakistan, Bangladesh, China and Vietnam are the main buyers of Indian cotton. This situation is helping its competitors like the U.S., Brazil and some African nations

McDonalds to transition to fresh beef in quarter pounders... McDonald’s USA plans to use entirely fresh, never frozen beef in its quarter pounders served at the majority of its restaurants by mid-2018. The burgers will be cooked when they are ordered. The company has been testing the shift to fresh beef at restaurants in Texas and Oklahoma.

Beef and cash prices soften... Choice and Select boxed beef values fell $1.71 and $2.21, respectively, on Thursday but this did spur decent movement of 130 loads. Choice values are down $7.07 for the week while Select cuts have fallen $7.72. This has cut into packer profit margins (though they are still in the black) and given them the upper hand in cash negotiations. Trade picked up yesterday in Kansas at $124 to $128, in Texas at $126.50 to $128, and in northern locations at prices ranging from in $128 to $132. This is down from last week’s action at $130 to $134.50 but well above where futures are trading.

H&P Report about as bearish as expected... USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report confirmed expected hog herd expansion. The steep price break leading up to the report and the bounce preceding its release could signal that the negative data is already baked into prices. Adding to such ideas is the severely oversold condition of the market. But with market hog inventories up more than 4%, buying interest outside of corrective trade will be limited.

Overnight demand news... Jordan issued new international tenders to buy 100,000 MT of hard milling wheat and 100,000 MT of animal feed barley from optional origins. Tunisia purchased around 100,000 MT of soft milling wheat and 50,000 MT of feed barley to be sourced from optional origins.

Ultra-low Gossypol Cottonseed Gets Boost

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:21:19 GMT

USDA-APHIS is considering non-regulated status for a particular type of ultra-low gossypol cottonseed (ULGCS) containing technology that could expand the feed and food markets for cottonseed. TAM66274, researched at Texas A&M AgriLife and funded by Cotton Incorporated , is set for USDA-APHIS review.

Ultra-low gossypol cotton is packed with potential, related to increased use of protein in cottonseed, as well as greater overall value and sustainability. “Cotton Incorporated has been working on this technology for many years,” says Louisiana cotton producer George LaCour, chairman of The Cotton Board . “Gossypol naturally occurs in cottonseed and limits its potential as animal feed. This technology could broaden the animal feed market for cottonseed.”

The sole difference between ULGCS and conventional cottonseed is the low gossypol level, according to Kater Hake, vice president of Agricultural and Environmental Research at Cotton Incorporated: “ULGCS expands the opportunities for cottonseed in the food and feed sectors, without adversely affecting the quality or value of the fiber or other byproducts such as hulls and linters. Extensive field evaluations demonstrated that ULGCS poses no greater ecological risk than conventional cotton varieties.”

The review request was submitted by Texas A&M AgriLife.

Pro Farmer's Monday Morning Wake Up Call

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 01:59:37 GMT

Today is day two of a four-day weather event that is expected to bring heavy rains to many areas of the Corn Belt. This storm system is expected to be followed by more unsettled weather through Friday. Below-normal temps are also in the forecast this week. Corn planting is expected to fall further behind the normal pace this week. For more details on the weather and other market drivers this week, push play.

Drought Monitor Reflects Expansion Across Iowa

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 01:56:08 GMT

According to the National Drought Monitor, 57.23% of the contiguous U.S. is covered by some form of drought, which reflects improvement of around one percentage point from last week. While areas of the Plains and South experienced slight drought improvement, drought expanded across the Corn Belt.

According to the monitor, while some good rains were seen in portions of western Missouri and eastern Iowa, the rest of the region was generally dry. “As with other locations, the cooler July temperatures helped to alleviate many concerns over the dryness. In Iowa, the D0 was expanded farther to the east in the central portion of the state, and some discussions took place about introducing moderate drought this week in western Iowa,” it notes. “Short-term dryness in portions of central Minnesota allowed for the expansion of D0 there this week. The heavy rain that brought relief to portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas also impacted southern Missouri and allowed for the removal of the abnormally dry conditions that previously existed.”

Meanwhile for the Plains, significant rain over central to southeast Kansas allowed for a full category improvement this week. “A large portion of Kansas recorded more than 4 inches of rain this week with a series of rain events. In portions of northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska, some areas did pick up 2 or more inches of rain this week. Improvements were held off as these same areas were still below normal for July and have deficits of 4-6 inches over the last 60 days. In western Nebraska, a small area in the panhandle saw D3 improve to D2 this week. In the Dakotas, the short-term dryness continues in many areas,” it notes. “Abnormally dry conditions were expanded in central North Dakota, while D0 and D1 conditions were expanded in southeast South Dakota. The D3 conditions in southwest South Dakota expanded in response to the dryness this week as well.”

Further south, the monitor notes that several rain events this week brought significant precipitation to the region in portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas. “A full category improvement was made to the drought status in western Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and central Oklahoma, where the rain amounts generally exceeded 3 inches for the week. In western Oklahoma, the D4 in Cimarron County was improved to D3 as the recent rains have allowed for some green up in the region. Improvements were made in portions of west Texas with the benefit of the active monsoon and in portions of the panhandle where local rains warranted improvements,” it states.

In its outlook for the next five days (July 31-August 4), the monitor states that temperatures will continue to be cool over much of the U.S., with departures from normal in the 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit range over the Northeast, Midwest, northern Plains and West Coast. The warmest temperatures are expected over the South. The active rain pattern will continue over much of the eastern half of the United States. Rainfall of more than an inch is projected over areas from Nebraska eastward, including much of the East Coast. The monsoon rainfalls over the desert Southwest will likely continue into next week. Most of the West and Texas are expected to stay dry during this time.

Drought Monitor Reflects Slight Nationwide Improvement

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 01:56:00 GMT

According to the National Drought Monitor, 54.98% of the contiguous U.S. is covered by some form of drought, which is a slight improvement from 56.87% last week. The monitor notes that across the Great Plains, scattered shower activity led to some modest improvements in areas of drought over the eastern halves of Kansas Oklahoma, and South Dakota, while western Corn Belt areas saw continued shower activity that led to further improvements in drought areas of western Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. In the South, modest rainfall led to minor improvements over portions of the Texas Panhandle, central and southeast Texas, and northwestern Louisiana.

For the Midwest, the monitor states, “Continued cool and wet conditions across parts of the region have renewed planting delays of soybeans across parts of Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and Wisconsin according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Minor improvements were made in northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota in areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) as well as Severe Drought (D2) as one-to-two inches of rain fell during the 7-day period. Temperatures throughout the region were below normal during the past week.”

In the South, modest rainfall fell over much of the region, with some locally heavier accumulations occurring over portions of eastern and central Texas. “In east Texas, conditions continue to improve and areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) saw one-category improvements in response to rainfall accumulations of one-to-three inches over during the past week. In the Texas Panhandle, some locally heavy rainfall accumulations (2-5 inches) led to one-category improvements in areas of Exceptional Drought (D4) and Extreme Drought (D3). In the Trans-Pecos and west Texas, modest rainfall led to one-category improvements in Brewster and Pecos counties in areas of Moderate Drought (D1),” it states. “In west Texas, one-category improvements were made in areas of Exceptional Drought (D4) and Extreme Drought (D3) as a result of rainfall accumulations of one-to-two inches during the past week. In south-central Texas, continued dry conditions led to the expansion of areas of Exceptional Drought (D4) and Severe Drought (D3). In northwestern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas, modest rainfall (1.5-3 inches) led to one-category improvements in areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1). Temperatures across the region were generally near-normal during the past week.”

In the northern Plains, a cool and wet pattern persisted in North Dakota and extreme eastern portions of South Dakota, and Nebraska where one-category improvements were made in areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) receiving more than two inches of rain during the past week. “Across the Dakotas, recent rains have continued to help improve pasture and range conditions. In the southern tier, modest rainfall amounts were observed over eastern and north-central Kansas leading to continued improvements in areas of Abnormally Dry (D0), Moderate Dry (D1), and Severe Dry (D2). According to the USDA NASS Kansas Crop Progress and Conditions Report, wet field conditions continued to cause some planting delays of soybeans and sorghum, especially in low-lying areas. Conversely, western Kansas has not benefited from the recent storms and rangeland conditions remain in poor to very poor condition,” it states. “In Oklahoma, some locally heavy rainfall (2-3 inches) led to minor improvements in south-central and north-central regions in areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1). Despite some locally heavy rainfall in parts of extreme western Oklahoma during the past week, conditions on the map remained unchanged as rainfall deficits persisted. During the past week, temperatures in the northern tier were below-normal while most of the southern tier was near-normal.”

In its outlook for the next five days, the monitor says moderate to heavy precipitation is expected over the Midwest and Northeast while modest rainfall is forecasted across the eastern portions of the Great Plains, Southeast, and Pacific Northwest. The 6-10 day outlooks call for a high probability of above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures across New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, the northern Great Plains, and the Pacific Northwest. In contrast, a high probability of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation are expected across the Intermountain West, southern Great Plains, and the South.

Drought Outlook: Further Improvement for Eastern Edge of Drought Area

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 01:56:00 GMT

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued its extended weather forecasts and its outlook for July calls for enhanced odds of below-average precipitation for the northwest U.S., which is expected to promote further drought expansion and persistence. In the Southwest, the potential for a robust and early onset of monsoon wetness may bring drought relief to Arizona, western New Mexico and as far north as southern Utah and Nevada. In contrast, enhanced seasonal probabilities of abnormal dryness and warmth in western Texas are expected to promote drought persistence and expansion. Meanwhile, chances are equal across the bulk of the Corn Belt for above-, normal and below-normal precip and temps.

In its extended outlook through September, it says wet summer climatology may aid in further east to west erosion of drought across the Great Plains, but the prospects for relief are less certain along the High Plains, where extreme to exceptional drought has been entrenched for months and soil moisture is very low. The 90-day outlook calls for above-normal temps in most areas west of the Rockies, including Nebraska southward, while chances are equal for normal, below- and above-normal temps across the Corn Belt. The same holds true for precip chances across the Corn Belt, with the exception of above-normal precip chances in the far southern tip of the eastern Belt.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook below reflects persistent drought in the western states, but calls for more improvement along the eastern border of the drought area.