Commodity Classic

2024 U.S. Meat Exports Created 59¢ in Value for Corn, $1.46 for Soybeans

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 21:56:23 GMT

Pork exports smashed records last year and beef export value climbed 5% from 2023. With robust red meat exports to finish 2024, a new study by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) shows the economic impact that had on corn and soybean demand.

The study, which was conducted by the Juday Group, was unveiled during the live taping of U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic this week. The shows 30% of the pork produced in the U.S. is exported today. And exporting more than 14% of U.S. beef production is consumed outside the U.S. Exporting corn through U.S. beef and pork generated the following demand:

Beef and pork exports accounted for 525.1 million bushels of U.S. corn usage, which equated to a market value of $2.24 billion (at an average 2024 corn price of $4.27 per bushel).
Beef and pork exports accounted for 3.04 million tons of DDGS usage, equating to $525 million (at an average 2024 price of $172.56 per ton).
Beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 14%, or $0.59, of bushel value at an average price of $4.27 per bushel in 2024.
Pork exports accounted for 100.7 million bushels of U.S. soybean usage, which equated to a market value of $1.12 billion (at an average 2024 soybean price of $11.11 per bushel).
Pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 13.2% of bushel value, or $1.46, at an average price of $11.11 per bushel in 2024.

“We send a lot of corn and soybeans out through us beef and pork and when you look at that, every hog that we export outside the United States, that’s 10 bushels of corn,” says John Hinners, Senior Vice President, Industry Relations, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). “The Dave Juday study shows the impact of that is 59 cents on a bushel of corn in 2024 on that impact and then $1.46 on a bushel of soybeans. So it has significant impact.”

Corn demand generated from meat exports.

(U.S. Meat Export Federation)

Hinners says bottom-line is the corn and soybean industry are critical in U.S. Meat Export Federations’ efforts to grow global demand for U.S. red meat.

“World demand for protein has never been better. And when you think about what we do as an organization, we’re trying to build profit opportunities in the agriculture business, not specifically one sector or another, but just red meat in total,” he says. “And it has an impact on everything we do in agriculture, whether that’s the corn grower, the soybean grower, and so forth.”

Soybean demand generated from meat exports in 2024.

(U.S. Meat Export Federation)

Hinners says the U.S. isn’t exporting the high-quality cuts of meat, like ribeyes or New York steaks. Most of those cuts are consumed here at home. What the U.S. does export, and provides value, is the cuts and parts of an animal that aren’t preferred by U.S. consumers.

“When you think about what we send outside of the United States, it’s not the ribeye steaks and New York strips. It’s the beef liver, it’s the tripe on that animal. It’s the pork tails, the feet, the snout. A lot of these good protein items are garnished and really welcome in different countries,” says Hinners. “We’re trying to add value to these items that we don’t traditionally consume here in the United States. And it’s great protein.

(U.S. Meat Export Federation)

Exploring the Tariff Impact on Red Meat Exports
According to the USMEF, total U.S. red meat exports in 2024 was $19.1 billion. Mexico, China and Canada add up to 8.4 billion of the total, about 40%. USMEF president and CEO Dan Halstrom told Farm Journal’s Clinton Griffiths the impact remains unknown as it remains a ‘fluid situation.’

“I think the important thing to remember is that just because there’s tariff doesn’t mean the trade stops,” says Halstrom. “What it does do is it opens the doors of some of our competitors. Use Mexico as example. If we have a retaliatory duty on our products, beef or pork, we are competing against Brazilian product, for example, coming into Mexico. So that’s a very big focus that we have. They were a competitor before this when we were all zero -duty, and it’ll even be more so with a duty.”

Halstrom says it’s key to think longer term about the situation and what it could mean for export potential in the future.

“I personally think that the Trump administration, one, had our back in agriculture. I don’t think there’s any reason to think that they won’t again, but it will be a bumpy ride.”

During the previous Trump administration, the president renegotiated the free trade agreement between Mexico and Canada, which is known as the U.S., Mexico, Canada agreement (USMCA).

“We were on schedule for a review of USMC anyway in 2026, so there is an effort I think to move it up quicker, which might actually work to our advantage. We’ll have to wait and see,” Halstrom says. “This is sort of the concern when you start putting bilateral, unilateral duties on countries that you are kind of outside the confines of the free trade agreement structure. But like I said, it’s a very fluid situation. I do think the other thing that we have that’s definitely in our favor is that demand for our products globally is record breaking. I mean, it’s as good as I’ve ever seen it in 40-plus years. We have a very unique product. We’ve got to kind of keep that in mind because that’s a big leverage point.”

Can Mexico Afford to Retaliate Against the U.S.?

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 19:46:39 GMT

President Donald Trump followed through on his threats of imposing a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% on goods from China. While China and Canada released their list of retaliatory tariffs the same day, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, says they won’t release their list until the weekend.

Sheinbaum said the country will also respond with a 25% tariff on U.S. goods but will announce the products it will target on Sunday.

But can Mexico afford to retaliate? That was one of the questions asked by USDA chief economist Seth Meyer during Commodity Classic this week. The reason is Mexico’s economy is struggling, due to a number of factors, which includes a large informal sector, high budget deficit and unstable infrastructure.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Mexico’s GDP grew only 0.9% year over year in fourth quarter 2024, after expanding 2.% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2022. Economic growth slowed, mainly due to lower investment, slowing consumption and a contracting energy sector.

(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

The Dallas Fed says lower investment and consumption was the main driver behind the slow growth.

“Investment contributed three percentage points less to GDP growth in 2024 compared with 2023,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in a recent report. “The major drop was in nonresidential construction investment, while purchases of imported machinery and equipment also slowed noticeably as the Mexican peso continued to weaken against the dollar. In addition, consumption was impacted by sluggish growth in remittances, high interest rates and flat employment. However, net exports boosted growth in 2024 after dragging it down the previous two years.”

Extremely Reliant Upon Exports
The other issue? Mexico is extremely reliant upon demand from the U.S., exporting $41.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the U.S.

In 2023, Mexico accounted for 16.3% of U.S. agricultural exports and 23.3% of U.S. agricultural imports.

By the numbers:

Mexico is the largest source of horticultural imports to the U.S., supplying 63% of vegetables and 47% of fruit and nuts in 2023.
The top agricultural exports from Mexico to the U.S. in 2024 included beer, tomatoes, tequila, avocados, strawberries, raspberries and peppers.

Mexico is the Biggest Customer of U.S. Ag Exports

The other important piece is Mexico is now the U.S.'s top ag export destination.

According to Krista Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), Mexico is a huge destination for U.S. corn. More than 40% of U.S. corn exported last year went to Mexico. Not only does that mean the U.S. relies on Mexico, but Mexico is also reliant upon the U.S. do to the strong demand.

“That’s the other key piece here when we think about a Mexico situation, you know, will they retaliate on corn because it’s so important to the consumers in their country,” Swanson told Farm Journal during Commodity Classic this week. “And it’s such a big part of their diets and consumption. It’s a commodity that they consume way more of than what they produce. So they’re going to have to get it from somewhere.”

Bigger Picture
According to USDA’s Economic Research Service , between 1993 (the year before NAFTA’s implementation) and 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico expanded at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%, while agricultural imports from Mexico grew at a rate of 9.7%.

“With the economic recovery in the United States and Mexico that followed the pandemic, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico increased at a CAGR of 15.7% between 2020 and 2023, and U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico grew at a CAGR of 11.3%,” the USDA report said. “In 2023, however, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous year, as the prices of major agricultural exports (such as corn and soybeans) declined.”

Commodities Supporting Commodities, USMEF Shares Value Impacts

Thu, 16 Mar 2023 20:35:37 GMT

As the commodity groups recently wrapped up the Commodity Classic event in Orlando, Fla., U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) leaders share the importance of supporting fellow producers and other key partners at the industry meeting.

“If it wasn’t for the checkoff dollars from corn, soybean, beef and pork, we wouldn’t be able to do the activities we do in in the various countries,” says Dean Meyer, USMEF chair. “That’s certainly important for us to be here and to support them also, like they support us, and show our appreciation.”

At the event, USMEF released new impact numbers of red meat exports on corn and soybean values in the U.S.

“Every bushel of corn that we market, there’s a little over $1 of that attributed to red meat exports,” Meyer notes. This value has grown significantly in recent years, he adds, with 12% of value being attributed to red meat in 2021 and 15% in 2022.

Likewise, red meat exports can be attributed to $1.94 for every bushel of soybeans, or 13% of the price of every bushel, Meyer says.

While red meat exports bring value to U.S. commodities, USMEF Chair-elect Randy Spronk voiced his concerns over inflationary impacts on profitability for all grain and livestock producers.

Spronk says, “I think everybody’s genuinely concerned about increasing input costs. They’re very conscientious of their breakeven and their cost of production. It’s true of all farmers here. I mean, that’s just what’s happened with our economy coming out of COVID—inflationary pressures and higher interest rates.”
Additionally, Spronk wonders how this will have an impact on the consumer and their ability to buy meat products at the store.

“Are they going to buy up when we’re buying our products at the grocery store? Are they going to limit the value of that dollar that they have when they go to the grocery store?” Spronk questions.

There’s some uncertainty around the return to profitability, Spronk says, though he believes there is a silver lining.

“That’s what’s the great thing about having a diversified portfolio when we talked about exports. We’re so thankful for Latin America, Central America and Colombia, with the reduced exports that we’ve had to China on some of the fresh meat products. We need to continue down that path and continue to be able to develop those markets,” he says.