China

Another Week of Record Cash Cattle? Grains Soar on China Trade Details

Mon, 18 May 2026 15:40:53 GMT

Grain and hog markets were sharply higher early Monday, with cattle mixed.

Grains and Hogs Soar on China Trade Details
Grain and hog futures were sharply higher on Monday morning as the White House released details of the China trade framework on Sunday.

It includes ag purchases of $17 billion for 2027 and 2028, with 2026 prorated and totaling $8 billion. This is on top of the 25 million metric tons of soybean purchase commitments they made in October of 2025.

Brad Koomia of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the $17 billion dollar of ag products was non-specific. So it is not known which commodities it will cover but he thinks the likelihood is soybeans, feed grains and beef. However, he is less confident about pork purchases.

“My reasoning is based on the idea that they haven’t bought pork for years already. Plus, the China hog herd has expanded after being decimated by African Swine Fever. What they do need is feed,” he explains.

What About Beef?
China re-listed 425 U.S. beef plants to export after concerns about ractopamine in U.S. beef.

They have been a large customer of variety meats, not muscle cuts, according to Kooima.

“We’re talking about stuff that a lot of us don’t eat anymore. Tongues. brains, offal product, but they seem to like that sort of thing. So maybe we can get a little bit of that. I don’t see that that part would be a market changer,” he adds.

If the plants test positive the plants will get de-listed and even if the U.S. can certify the beef is ractopamine free will China be able to afford U.S. beef?

Will China Follow Through?
Kooima says the real key is will China follow through with the purchases?

“China’s not reliable. “The worry is, is that like before, you know, they continue to posture and they don’t live up to what they say they’re going to do. So it is a game changer if they actually uphold it,” he adds.

Will China Drop the 10% Tariff?
The other unknown is whether or not China will drop the 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans.

President Trump said tariffs were not discussed, while Chinese officials says there was an agreement to drop some tariffs, with no specifics released.

“Hopefully we can work through at least some of this deal. I just worry that we’ll have this high expectation and then there’ll be some other we stub our toe on some other matter. And then, you know, then we got to retrace again,” he says.

Cash Cattle Continue to Set Records?
Live cattle futures put in higher weekly closes last week on the heels of record high cash trade in the country at mostly $265.

However, the futures continue to lag or show a big discount to the cash market. So when will that narrow?

Kooima says it may not. “I feel like the signal that we’re nearing the end of this thing is the change in basis, where the the cash much outperforms the futures and that’s happened. I mean we just put on $10 at the same time that the futures market, depends on which month,
but even the front month is below the contract high that we made two and a half weeks ago. And some of the back months are more like $5 below those highs.”

He says while the market is really good now due to tight supplies and May being the best demand month.

“There is a bit of a problem with the Choice boxes at only $389 and having no premium to the select is weird, seasonally completely wrong, which is a warning flag, I think, from a demand standpoint,” he explains.

So, while the cash may go up but the futures may not retest the highs.

Funds Liquidating in Cattle
The reason is the funds are liquidating in the cattle futures and open interest is declining, due to fears of increased beef imports.

“So it looks like you’re getting some of these fund managers or whatever that are saying, you know what, I’m thinking about taking my ball and going home. I don’t want to. want to be out here exposed to an announcement out of the White House, about fine-tuning a potential
executive order to alleviate the domestic beef shortage,” he adds.

He says the assumption is that will include relaxing the tariff rate quota on Brazil beef.

“We’ve been getting a ton of stuff out of there already to get this grinding meat,” he says, “Every time they get that blurb, the algorithms react to it and you get a futures reaction to it.”

The market is also concerned about the reopening of the Southern border to Mexican cattle or the possibility of a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S.

CME Raising Cattle Futures Limits
On top of that, the CME raising cattle futures limits is also chasing out the funds.

“Bigger limits require bigger margin requirements, chases further the small speculator, increases volatility, all sorts of things. Some traders at least don’t like the algorithms, because they prey on that sort of market activity,” he says.

Cattle on Feed on Friday
The market is also gearing up for this Friday’s Cattle on Feed report which will likely start showing higher placements according to Kooima.

“Sure, because we’re comparing to such a small number from a year ago because the border has been closed that long now. I would say, yes, you’re going to see a marketing number that looks pretty dreary because we’re feeding cattle longer. And you’re going to see an on-feed number that’s above a year ago, too, for that matter,” he states.

Ft. Morgan Vote
Monday and Tuesday the Fort Morgan, Cargill plant workers will be talking about a deal and voting on whether they will strike or not.

However, so far the market does not care says Kooima.

“We’ve been on strike for or they haven’t been killing for a month for four weeks. And the market just does not even care about it. It barely gets
a mention. The numbers are that tight, okay? You know, in a different environment where we have more cattle to go around, this would be a much, much bigger and more bearish thing. One almost gets the feeling that management isn’t really bothered by the fact that they’re not killing,” he adds.

Grains Soar on China News, Iran War
The grains gapped higher over night and are soaring during the day session on the China trade details but also the Iran war rhetoric heating back up. That has energy markets higher leading to some inflationary buying.

“The sense that we’re back into this, what do we do when we go into an inflationary type of an economy? Corn, beans, wheat, those things seem to benefit in that kind of an environment,” he says.

China Grants 5-Year Extension to Hundreds of U.S. Beef Plant Registrations

Fri, 15 May 2026 18:23:57 GMT

China has granted a five-year extension to hundreds of U.S. beef plant export registrations, marking the first major movement in months on a trade issue that has constrained access to one of the most important overseas markets for American beef.

According to a Friday statement from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) has extended registrations for 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments in China’s CIFER system. In addition, 77 new U.S. beef establishment registrations have been added, effective May 15, 2026, with each valid for five years. However, 38 beef establishments remain suspended. Of those, 25 were previously expired and have now been administratively renewed, but they are still not eligible to export.

The announcement adds a significant new development to a week of confusion and shifting signals around U.S. beef access to China. On Thursday, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that China appeared to have renewed export registrations for hundreds of U.S. beef plants during high-level talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing. But those listings later reverted to “expired” on China’s customs website, with no official explanation, fueling uncertainty across the industry.

As recently as Friday morning, there had been no clear confirmation that broad renewals were in place. The USMEF update now provides the most concrete indication yet that at least partial restoration of access is underway, even as some facilities remain blocked.

Restoring Plant Registrations Was Top Priority for USMEF

For USMEF, restoring those registrations is priority number one, and even said before the high-level meeting this week that this type of meeting would be the perfect stage to restore the registrations..

“We have been at an impasse now for almost a year with these plants,” says Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation. “The vast majority of the U.S. plants — 400-plus — are either delisted or were never relisted in their registration system in China. So in my opinion, it’s going to take an event like this to maybe jar this loose and break it loose. We’re cautiously optimistic that having this high-level meeting between President Xi and President Trump might just do that.”

Halstrom said while beef is only one piece of the broader trade relationship, these talks could provide the political momentum needed to reopen access.

“There are so many issues outside of beef and even outside of agriculture that are being discussed,” he says. “But time will tell. A meeting like this could absolutely be what we’ve been waiting for.”

From a $2 Billion Market to a Fraction of That

How high are the stakes? According to Halstrom, they’re significant. He says following the Phase One trade agreement in 2020, U.S. beef exports to China exploded. According to Halstrom, exports grew from roughly $300 million in 2020 to more than $2 billion by 2022.

But after the registration lapse last year, exports sharply declined.

“If you remember back to 2020 with the Phase One deal with China, that was a home run for the U.S. beef industry,” Halstrom says. “In 2020, we were exporting about $300 million of U.S. beef. We peaked out in 2022 at a little over $2 billion. Then in 2023 and 2024, we were around $1.6 billion. But after the plants were delisted last year, we dropped to a little under $500 million. So at a very high level, that’s the impact we’re talking about.”

And that loss isn’t just showing up on export balance sheets. It’s hitting cattle values at home.

Halstrom estimates access to the China market adds roughly $150 to $165 per fed animal harvested in the U.S.

“China has become a very important market because of the way it helps maximize the value of the carcass,” he explains. “There are products, especially variety meats that have significantly more value in China than they do here domestically. Items like backstrap and aorta are in very high demand there. If those products suddenly don’t have a home in China, it impacts the value chain almost immediately.”

Why China Matters to the Cutout

Halstrom says the impact also extends into traditional muscle cuts, especially short plates.

“Today, beef short plates are trading roughly around $2.50 per pound,” Halstrom says. “We estimate that if these plants were relisted and access was restored, you could see short plate values increase by more than a dollar per pound in relatively short order. That’s substantial.”

Halstrom also points out China’s importance stretches beyond just direct exports into the country. It really impacts all of Asia.

“It’s not just about what gets sold directly to China,” he says “The China market creates a halo effect across Asia because a lot of these same items are traded between China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. So when China is actively buying, you immediately see stronger demand and stronger pricing across the region for products like short ribs, chuck flap and short plates.”

That broader demand ripple helps support overall cattle prices in the U.S.

“More customers rather than fewer is what impacts the cutout,” Halstrom says. “And there’s no doubt there’s been big money lost over the last year because these plants have not been relisted.”

More Than Just Plant Registrations

Halstrom stresses the expired registrations are only one layer of the issue that needs to be addressed.

“It’s not just the plant relistments,” he explains. “That’s phase one of what we need to have done. A large percentage of these plants are also dealing with technical and non-tariff trade issues, including residue-related issues that have caused additional delistings. So there are really two phases here — first getting these plants relisted in the registration system, and then working through these broader trade barriers.”

He said the U.S. Trade Representative’s office is fully aware of the challenges facing the industry and is listening.

“We’ve been dealing with USTR on these issues and they are very well informed on it,” Halstrom says. “The other thing from an agriculture perspective is encouraging the Chinese to go back and look at what they already committed to with the Phase One agreement back in 2020.”

Demand Is Still There

Despite the political tensions, Halstrom said the commercial appetite for U.S. beef in China hasn’t disappeared.

“One important point here is these are not government-to-government transactions. These are our customers,” Halstrom says. “They want the product and we want to sell it. The commercial business is still there.”

He pointed to major retailers and foodservice buyers already positioned to resume purchases quickly if access returns.

“Sam’s Club comes to mind immediately because they’re one of the leading modern big-box retailers in China,” Halstrom says. “Costco has warehouses there as well, and we also have foodservice customers lined up and ready to go. So we do not need to rebuild the commercial business. The customers are there, willing and able to buy U.S. beef. What we need is for the U.S. government and the Chinese government to work together to restore access so we can get back on track.”

As of the latest industry checks this week, registrations for most U.S. beef plants still had not been renewed.

Cattle Higher as Cash is King, How Crazy Could it Get? Hogs and Grains See Fund Selling

Fri, 15 May 2026 16:02:43 GMT

Cattle were higher early Friday with the rest of the ag markets lower.

Cattle Rebound Friday
Cattle futures took a breather Thursday but were back higher early Friday with volatility reigning supreme according to Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says the cattle futures are getting tougher and tougher to trade because of the choppy action. “Because there’s no bids, no offers. The volume is hard. I mean, you try to sell five feeders at the market and all of a sudden it kicks the order back because there’s too much movement.”

That is making it tough for hedgers to use the board.

“So and as we’re doing these hedge strategies, we said, OK, we would like to use a spring rally to try to get some long term protection on. Now,
putting that on is really hard in these markets and you have to be ready. It’s not going to be cheap to get some floors on in the feeder cattle market,” he says.

Record Cash but How Crazy Could it Get?
The futures market is still at a discount to this week’s record cash trade which continues to look bullish.

The volume of cash in the North was in the $265 area but the South also saw $260 to $262 as packers seem hungry for cattle according to Varilek.

“I mean, just the hunger from certain majors and all the packers out there buying these cattle is really wow to me. We get some $265 trade, you know, getting this really wide basis normally this is our widest basis is in May and at record prices,” he says.

And packers are buying at these prices for delayed delivery into even the middle of June which is also bullish.

“They’re just grabbing a bunch of inventory so that way they can sit for a while and then it seems like then they’re back the next week already. So still tight supplies up front. It feels really good. And I love it that some of these majors are out front. You know, for the north, that means a lot.”

He says usually Northern feed lots have a hard time getting bids from certain packers but that isn’t the case this year as the cattle market is into its tightest supplies.

“But we’re turning over to this calf crop where these weights are a lot lower, and we’ve got cattle on feed that we might not want to sell yet and packers are calling bidding on them,” he adds.

So next week he expects asking prices will be higher at $268 to $270.

Higher Cattle Limits
Part of the break in the futures on Thursday was news the CME Group was raising limits on cattle again to $8.50 on live cattle and $10.75 on feeder cattle.

Varilek says that only benefits the big fund traders and they are pushing for it, to the expense of producers.

“We do not want that as producers. It’s hard to see our bottom line change by that much just in the matter of seconds. It doesn’t feel like we need that,” he adds.

Ft. Morgan Union to Vote on a Strike on Monday
The Fort Morgan, CO Cargill beef plant union is expected to vote on whether they are striking or not on Monday.

However, Varilek says it may be a non-event because the plant has been dark and the market hasn’t cared.

” And it just feels like we haven’t traded that real hard just because it’s been closed for four weeks and yet we’re still seeing cash move higher. Packers are still very aggressive buying cattle. It’s like, OK, I guess I guess nothing happened. So if there’s some more new news next week, maybe we’ll see if it really dives into the market.”

He’s doubtful it will but the bigger concern is another plant closure.

China Beef News
Conflicting news reports on China re-listing nearly 400 U.S. beef plants for export ended with China still not accepting U.S. beef.

However, Varilek says the market did not trade it.

” I feel like we brushed it off, you know, just because, number one, we know Trump’s saying beef prices are too high and he wants to import a bunch of beef to try to handle this tight supply. So we know we don’t have just a large amount of beef to sell, to export, you know, so we don’t really have it. So then the fact that it came out that they’re not, I don’t think we’re trading that real hard,” he adds.

Hogs Spiral on Mexican Export Resistrictions?
Lean hogs saw a nice rally on Wednesday but failed to get follow through buying on Thursday or to start Friday.

Varilek says the inability of the market to find a bottom may be tied to Mexico putting some export restrictions on U.S. pig semen, live breeding animals and offal due to pseudorabies.

“A negative flag that it’s raising there just because Mexico is our number one customer there for pork and and we desperately need it and this adds value to some of the lower quality pork products,” he says.

He says this doesn’t impact muscle cuts but Mexico does take a large amount of variety meats and this accounts for 10% of all their imports.

That is offsetting some of the positive news in the market including that two to three packers aren’t killing on Fridays because they can’t find enough hogs.

Funds Sell in Grains on China Disappointment
Grains are lower again Friday after funds sold hard in the grain and cotton markets on Thursday.

It was in response to the lack of tangible agricultural purchase commitments from China during the summit in Beijing.

Will the funds continue to liquidate in the grains after the technical damage done?

He says, “Yeah, we’re doing some short-term chart damage here and things just are trading pretty ugly today despite the higher energy markets. The grains had rallied on hopes of China business and just the fact that we did not get any news the funds didn’t like it,” he says.

How Low Will Prices Fall?
Varilek sees the grains slipping back into the recent trading ranges but there is good chart support on the bottom side of the ranges that should hold going into the growing season.

“So I’ll be looking for Sunday night’s trade to kind of start to hold as funds usually liquidate in three day waves. We might try to find some value buyers, some end users in some of these markets. So not ready to write it off and say, we got to go find some new lows here,” he says.

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:34 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 20:45:22 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

Cattle Fall After Reversal, Is the Top In? Corn Above $5, Beans to New Highs

Mon, 04 May 2026 22:24:04 GMT

Grains end mostly higher Monday, with cattle and hogs lower.

Have Cattle Topped?
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day on follow through selling. Both made record highs on Friday and then closed lower on big volume scoring key reversals.

So is the top in the cattle market?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this market but it fits the profile of a technical top.

“Some 45 years ago I learned a reversal has to be from a terminal area, which is just a fancy way of saying an important area. And I don’t know what’s more important than the all time high. So, we did that on Friday. It has to be done on big volume. It was 86,000. It should be accompanied by an increase in open interest, and it was. And then the third thing is that it should have followed through the following day,” he explains.

However, he says the market ended well off the lows because at one time feeder cattle were over $7 lower and the June live cattle closed almost $3.50 off its lows.

“While it was still lower, it was a long ways from where it was,” he says.

Cattle Hold Critical Support
So the market held the support it needed to on the charts because according to Kooima June live cattle stayed above the 50-day and the
20-day moving averages, which has been kind of significant to keep an eye on.

“August feeders got a little whippy. We got all the way down to 62% retracement, then held that. So I’d say we did good enough holding what I think was technically important,” he adds.

Cash Trade Topped?
Several fundamental factors may have also caused the sell off including this week’s cash expectations.

Last week the cash market hit record high levels with Southern deals mostly $244 to $256, up $9 to $10. The North was $255 to $258 live and mostly $400 dressed, up $14.

The average steer price was reported by USDA at a new record high of $255.02, up $8.84. So it will be hard to see an encore.

“I mean, the market was basically $246 last week, Wednesday, I think. I know I passed $248 on Friday then, but if you compare like $246 and then getting cattle as high as $258 last week. You find me a week where that happened before. There was a couple of weeks in 2014 that were like that, but maybe not quite that much,” he says.

Kooima adds that it is interesting the packers came out already so aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday, to try to buy cattle.

“And dovetail that with the fact that a month ago or so, there was plenty of these basis deals made by some of the major packers where they were willing to pay five or six over where the Junes were for the first two weeks of May. At that time, that was the equivalent of like $252 on cash cattle. At the same time, the cash market was probably $5 to $7 less than that. Well, a lot of guys did that because that looked pretty attractive, right? Turns out it’s cheap now compared to what the packer paid last week,” he explains.

So the packer was trying to get enough inventory so they didn’t have to work so hard to secure as many numbers this week theorizes Kooima.

“So you’re going to have a standoffish week on cash, maybe. Let’s call it steady due to lack of trade, perhaps, just because I don’t think we’ve
got very small show lists up here in the North, very small. So we don’t have much for sale, but you might have a packer that might not need to buy much,” he says.

Kill Cuts
That because the packers are trying to cut kills this week to prop up their margins.

“I’m not going to say names, but there’s plenty of them that are going four days this week. And one’s down today. A couple of them are down Friday. So the packer is trying to do whatever is necessary to not have to chase the market anymore,” he adds.

That was already a pressuring feature for the market on Friday.

High Gas, Stock Market Sell Off
Also working against the cattle market was the surging gas prices and the sharply lower stock market.

At some point that becomes negative for consumer demand. “One has the worry that, you know, and the inflation or the stress on the budget that’s created by that. And let’s be honest. I mean, boxed beef is no runaway with this tight kill. And it is less than a week now till Mother’s Day. We’re already past that. Usually two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day. That’s kind of your signal for let’s begin the middle meat rally. So hopefully it
still develops. But I think. There was some of that going on today,” he says.

So that created some technical selling especially with the funds nearly record long.

DOJ Probe
Adding to the bearish attitude was USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterating the goal of the Trump administration to get beef prices down.

Part of that strategy includes a Department of Justice investigation of the beef packing industry.

He says, “I’m not sure that Secretary Rollins commentary this morning was helpful to the market either, bringing up the concept of investigating the big four. You know, probably if you’re an algorithm trader and you’re trading, you might think, you know what, I don’t think I want to be participating in this kind of uncertainty.”

DOJ has probed the packing industry in the past only to walk away empty handed but it spooked the funds.

“There’s things that have happened historically that deserve some looking into including the Holcomb fire. I was very vocal through that period about how we killed more cattle after the fire than before it but they couldn’t see anything wrong then. You know, I mean, we had 85 cent cattle and $450 boxes. So, you know, so what are they going to find now?”

Hogs Down Again
Lean hog futures were down again on Monday with continued fund liquidation and technical selling.

Kooima says the market got spooked about the pseudorabies case in Iowa on Thursday and Friday.

He was hopeful with the positive comments Iowa Secretary of Ag Mike Naig made about the problem being contained that the market would stablize.

“He outlined how everything got tested. These were five boars from Texas and an isolated incident. We’ve got protocol in place and we haven’t had a case since 2004. I was hoping that maybe cooler heads would prevail,” he adds.

Kooima says the cash news is pretty friendly but the market can’t find support and the charts look terrible.

“The inability to source pigs because of the disease problems is real. What these pigs cost, close to $100 on an isowean, $150 on a 40-pounder, would tell you just how tight the supply is. So, you know, I have a tendency to be a little bit of a supply-side bull here with nothing to show for it.”

Soybeans Break to Fresh Highs
Soybeans ended 16 to 21 cents higher on Monday and made new highs for the move in both old and new crop contracts.

The market was following bean oil which made more new contract and multi-year highs once again chasing higher crude oil.

The market was also building in optimism ramping up into the trade summit next week in China.

“The hope that we get something tangible with this China visit. I would caution everybody be a little careful as this is China. They’re a bit disingenuous and not the most reliable trade partner but that is out there,” he states.

The crude oil/bean oil story is also a drive as he says with higher energy prices there is the fear of inflation.

“I think is reflecting in some of our commodity prices here, too, most notably some of the stuff that is relatively cheap, like the grains are,” he adds.

How High Will Soybeans Rally?
With the chart breakout will July soybeans be able to take out the March high of $12.50 3/4 and will November soybeans get above $12?

Kooima says both of those moves are in the cards. “Based on the chart pattern here and the fact we have broke out of the range we have been in for six or seven weeks. When you break out of those consolidation patterns that it’s like coiling a spring. I always think the tighter it’s wound then the bigger reaction you get. So, this thing actually projects through that old $12.50 area on the July beans which is a big deal. On both the
weekly chart and on the daily chart it actually opens up the path here for a move to $12.70 or even maybe even closer to $13 on the old crop.”

That could put November in the $12.40 to $12.50 price range where he would suggest some marketing.

Corn Makes Fresh Highs, Dec Closes Above $5
Corn also made fresh highs for the move in sympathy with soybeans and on fund buying.

Funds bought over 80,000 contracts and could add to that Kooima says.

“You don’t have to be a genius to look at $4.85 to $4.87 on the July corn to know how important that is. Let’s see if we can take that out. December corn, you know, that’s new highs for the move. Nice looking chart pattern. We are kind of overbought here. I don’t know if we need to rest just a little bit. But, you know, incrementally, I was starting to look at some new crop sales here. And then the next level at around $5.20. And then the next one around $5.45. I’m more inclined to sell into the corn rally.”

He says the market is also watching weather, lower acreage and fertilizer concerns plus whether or not China buys corn at the summit.

Cattle Test Contract Highs on Strong Cash, Fade Border Talk: How High Will Prices Go?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:21:18 GMT

Cattle and soybeans are higher early Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Cattle Test Contract Highs
Cattle futures were strong out of the gate Friday with many of the live cattle futures once again making contract highs and other contracts are testing those chart areas.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.

“Cattle have been very strong. They’ve been overbought for a significant amount of time. And yeah, bumping on some of these contract highs. Some months are breaking through. And when some of the front months were making contract highs, the deferreds were kind of left in the dust, and now here in the last few days, more confidence in the back just continues to push higher. The resilience of this market is just very impressive.”

He says the market has shook off plenty of negative news including the Iran war, possible Mexican border reopening, closure of the Lexington, Neb. plant and the JBS plant strike at Greeley, CO.

When Will the Cattle High Hit?
Varilek says the market is getting hard to protect as many producers and market participants are waiting to see if the market is topping.

“I think there’s a lot of open inventory out there, guys that don’t have cattle hedged. And we’re just waiting. So whenever there is that official rollover, don’t know when it is. Everybody would love to know. And everybody says, call me if you think that is going to happen. That list is a thousand people long. So I don’t know that I’m going to get everybody called when that hits,” he says.

Higher Fed Cash Push
The futures have been pushed by the cash market which was up $9.26 last week on the 5-area weighted average.

“The way that it rallied was very impressive. It wasn’t just a few regionals out in front. We’ve got a couple of majors out there leading this cash market and for a couple of weeks in a row here now, coming in and grabbing entire show lists and the right kind of strength behind cash markets. So that helps a lot,” And he explains it provides the avenue to clean up the show lists and pull down the weights.

Producers have regained leverage but will it continue to push cash higher this week?

“Going into this week I think the thoughts were we’re gonna ask $252 but if the bids start coming out at $250 give me a call and there might be a little bit of interest there so I think anything $250 or higher, we’re feeling good. And it’s going to have to take that. I don’t feel like we’re going to move cattle less than that, especially with the strength that we’ve seen on the board here.”

Feeders Regain Leadership?
The feeder cattle cash index is back going higher and so will cash strength help pull the futures into new highs?

Varilek says, “These feeders have been the leaders for the last couple of years during this rally. And I think recently there was a small window here where a few of the cattle buyers were telling me, hey, I think there’s some soft. trade happening here and it’s easing up just a little
bit maybe not as strong that’s about all you had to say it must have encouraged the rest of the buyers to show up and we’re you know back off to the races got another you know projecting the index up another $2.40 here today and giving us that confidence.”

Plus, as planting ramps up there will be fewer cattle and buyers at the sale barns.

Mexican Border Reopening Soon?
The other headwind is continued talk the Mexican border might slowly start to open to cattle imports in a few weeks.

However, so far it hasn’t spooked the cattle market.

“Well, I think there was probably a few guys sitting on their hands waiting for more details there and now here we sit with kind of the same information, not a lot. So they might have to reenter and jump back in and get some inventory. I like what I’m seeing. To get to contract highs,
it’s not out of reach here,” he adds.

When the border does reopen it will be staggered and start in the far west ports but Varilek anticipates an announcement soon.

“You know, maybe it’s a staggered open here in a couple of weeks. And it’s like, OK, I just haven’t heard anything new yet on that story. I think that it is and I think that they probably will. I think we have a lot of measures in place to help prevent this. It is screwworm. It’s not hoof and mouth disease. It’s a little bit of a different cookie here, something that we should be able to try to manage. I don’t think it’s as big of a disaster as what some of the news is,” he states.

Plus, he says Mexico has learned how to deal with those cattle and are running those plants 24-7.

“They don’t have the regulations that we do here. They can ship us a lot of beef, just import us the beef, and they’ve got a self -sustaining industry down there. We can ship them corn. We’ve got a lot of cheap corn here. So that’s what I see.”

Hogs Correcting
Lean hogs saw a pop at the beginning of the week on news of FMD in China but have corrected since than and the action has been disappointing according to Varilek.

“One of our lead hog analysts here said, yeah, hogs suck. You know that that’s how what our attitude really is. We feel like we’ve got news that could rally these these hogs we we’ve got new PRRS outbreaks happening. I mean the disease is still there and so when we’re in the heart of
production we hear those stories,” he says.

Still hogs have not been able to turn around but he thinks its just a matter of time.

“I think that these hogs in these summer months can really take off here yet. So still holding out hope.”

Corn Removes War Premium
Corn futures are lower again on Friday on follow through selling and are working on a lower weekly close.

The market is taking out war and inflation premium according to Varilek.

“The energy rally that caught a lot of attention across agriculture markets and grains really benefited from it. You know, got to some levels, gave us some opportunities. Hey, to say, hey, I actually can look at some prices that might work here. That was fun. Now that we’re in the mood of, OK, we’re having ceasefire talks, we’re going to meet with Iran in Pakistan, Israel just kind of maybe coming to the table as of this morning.
We’ll see. But I think that’s starting to pull some of that premium out.”

Plus, he says the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks in the WASDE was a reminder of the large corn inventory in the U.S. with basis weaker than normal.

Soybeans Rally with Meal and China Hopes
Soybeans were higher again on Friday morning and have been strong all week getting some help from higher soybean meal as spreads are unwound with bean oil.

The other supportive feature is China and hopes for large purchases announcements in mid-May at the trade meeting between President’s Trump and Xi.

Why Cattle Faded the JBS Strike: Soybeans Tank on Fear Over Trump/Xi Meeting

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 15:33:01 GMT

Cattle and hogs were higher early Monday with the grain markets sharply lower led by soybeans.

Cattle Fade JBS Plant Strike
Live and feeder cattle futures opened higher on Monday morning, fading the JBS plant strike in Greeley, CO.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there were a couple of reasons the market ignored the strike and the biggest was the higher equity markets and lower crude oil. However, it was also tied to the fact the strike news was already priced into the market.

Kooima says Greeley was already dark last week. “There seems to be some confusion about what went on last week but you know the week before Friday in the afternoon the the union voted to strike or to walk out in 7 days. When they gave management their decision the manager said don’t bother coming next week. So last week we didn’t kill cattle at Greeley because of that. Now this week we’re on strike.”

He says interestingly enough the headline following algorithms that might be selling on the plant strike saw an offset from the outside markets like the equities.

How Long Will the Strike Last?
Kooima says the key to how long the market can continue to hold up depends on how long the strike lasts.

“I don’t know how long the strike’s going to last. But, I mean, it’s not going to last forever. I don’t think this is 1979 where that place went on strike for a year, if anybody doesn’t remember that. 79 into 80, a year at Greeley. I do think that this will be sooner rather than later. “

In the meantime he says JBS has been largely out of the cash market for several weeks.

“So if they would settle and need to try to buy some cattle, I would think you’d get a lift on the front end of the cattle futures and probably improve the cash market as well. So I don’t know if that’s this week, next week, or if it takes a little longer than that. To me, it’s a matter of how many weeks do we think it’s going to last,” he explains.

Could President Trump Step In?
There has also been speculation that a strike would not last long because President Trump might order the employees to go back to work.

Kooima says, “That’s news to me. You know, President Trump is unpredictable. How’s that for a polite answer? I think he’s got plenty of other things to worry about right now than that, although we all know he thinks beef’s too high, although he has put that comment in the closet, thankfully, here the last while.”

Less Negative Impact Because of Tight Cattle Numbers?
The impact of the Greeley plant being dark and removing the ability to kill the 5,400 head a day the plant slaughter may also be muted because of the tight numbers in the current cattle cycle and excess slaughter capacity says Kooima.

“If we were running along killing 125,000 a day, for instance, I think it would have been a lot more devastating. As it is, there’s still, like you just said, there’s not enough cattle to fill what we’ve got. And so I’m not alone thinking that there’s a chance that another plant will go down before this cycle’s over with yet,” he adds.

Can Cattle Recover?
Cattle futures were higher to start Monday and the April contract had filled an important gap area. However, the market was stopped at the first layer of chart resistance. So can the futures fully recover especially with the stock market on weak footing due to the Iran war?

Kooima says there are many headwinds right now in the market including the fact the packer has regained leverage. That’s why cash was $5 lower last week at $235.

“Cash was five lower last week, and we didn’t hardly sell any cattle. Feedlots showed quite a bit of resistance to the lower bids. So now we’re going to heighten that negotiation here this week because we’ve got carryover cattle and some of these cattle are big. So we’ll see who blinks first,” he says.

The other key will be what the stock market does from here and whether futures can regain enough strength to get fund or speculative traders to re-enter the market.

Lean Hogs Bounce With Cattle
Lean hog futures were also higher early Monday with help from cattle and a more risk on tone in the equity markets.

However, Kooima admits the resiliency in the cash and cutouts have also been supportive for the market, plus the tighter numbers expected ahead due to disease.

Grains Tank on Fear of China Meeting Cancellation
After a gap lower on Sunday night the grain markets were sharply lower on Monday. Soybeans were down over 50 cents early on fear that President Trump was going to cancel his meeting with President Xi in China at the end of the month, striking down chances for additional soybean purchases.

Trump asked China over the weekend to help get the Strait of Hormuz opened to allow crude oil to be shipped and threatened if they did not agree he would cancel the summit with the two leaders.

Kooima says the soybean market is taking out premium on that fear and that is spilling over to drag down the grains. However, the lower crude oil market is also taking some of the air out of the grain market balloon.

Cattle and Grains See Risk Off Selling on Iran Conflict: Have Cattle Topped?

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:50:44 GMT

Cattle and grains futures are mostly lower early, with hogs rebounding after a lower opening.

Cattle See Early Pressure on Risk Off Selling Tied to Iran Conflict
Cattle futures were lower on the opening in reaction to the risk off selling in the financial markets and the higher dollar, which is tied to the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran over the weekend. That has also sent energy prices higher.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures are reacting negatively to that uncertainty and had already started selling on Friday in fear of the increased tensions.

“The easiest dynamic is to look at what’s going on with the stock market whether you like it or not cattle futures have a tendency to to to follow some of those macro financials. Now the stock market is a lot better it’s still lower but it’s way better than it was and i think that might be contributing to a little bit of this comeback that we’re seeing on the cattle here early morning but yes the the whole issue of uncertainty. I think that the war issue or the whole conflict here with Iran, do I think that that is a game changer on the cattle? I don’t think that will be by itself because hopefully it doesn’t last very long”

He says eventually the conflict should be bullish cattle. “So, hopefully by the time we get here the next week and we’re talking again, that this is a little bit calmed down and we’re not worried so much about that anymore.”

Cattle Futures See Technical Damage
Cattle futures posted lower weekly and monthly closes on Friday and did some technical damage to the charts. Monday the market took out the 100 day moving average on the April live cattle and so that is an area of support Kooima is watching that needs to hold. “We’ve got a softer technical picture than we’ve had here since, well, around Thanksgiving.”

Kill Levels, Weights a Concern
Kooima says kill levels are also a concern with last week’s slaughter at only 516,000 head which is near COVID levels. At the same time weights are climbing. “I think that there are some feedlots that have been intentional about making cattle bigger you know i’ve heard that over and over well my break-evens are high. I could take a little less and still put 100 pounds more and still have more dollars. You know, that story. Replacement costs are very high. Feeds cheap. And on top of it, we barely had winter. So the performance of cattle here across the north especially has been amazing. You know, so we don’t feel very current here for a moment.”

Producers Lose Cash Leverage
That has led to producers losing their leverage in the cash market and saw declining prices through the end of the week. He says, “Cash was not good at $244, we sold cattle for on Thursday. And by Friday late, we were selling cattle at $240. Some places even a little less than that. Some $239 in western Nebraska. So, yes, the tone and the psychology, you know guys turned into pretty easy sellers. We’ll see how much that translates into this week. Definitely felt like leverage did flip here during the week last week.”

Fear of Strike at Greeley, CO, JBS Plant
There were social media posts that week that spooked the market with unconfirmed rumors that workers had voted to strike at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO. That situation is still not resolved according to Kooima. “I don’t know when they’re going to vote, whether they’re going to walk out or not. It’s a fluid situation. And I think no one will know until it happens, if it happens. My sense was is that the likelihood of that walkout is less now than what it was when this whole rhetoric began almost two weeks ago but we shall see.”

Is the Cattle Market Top In?
Kooima says he thinks there is a short term top in the futures market and the all-time highs may also be in. He is watching some critical chart areas for confirmation. “We’re going to struggle with the market here a little while. We’re in this stretch here where demand is not great. The packers got a little bit of leverage. Could April cattle get back to $225, which is halfway back in this leg up? I guess I could see that happening $225 ish. And then maybe if we get cleaned up, which I don’t think will take forever, we still don’t have a big supply of cattle, then I could very easily see like a replay of something like we did last year where we come into that May-June slot, that time period, kind of the new April, right? Because we’ve pushed that calving rate back so far. And then to see the market come back nicely as we see that improving demand.”

He says at the market gets closer to Mother’s Day he will feel better about the market turning around. “I think April cattle have to close above $238 to get the funds back in the market to take out the highs above $244. So we’ve got we’ve got a tall task here now to get the funds to to really have confidence in the market and the funds don’t like this uncertainty.”

Hogs Rebound as Funds Buy
Lean hog futures started lower and quickly turned back higher on fund buying and continued disease concerns. Kooima says, “The funds sure seems to be heavily engaged there. The fundamental story here from some of the hog guys that we talked to is we’re back on this disease topic and PERS, PEDV, and a lot of it. And I think that that’s getting some traction again in the market.”

He says it’s pretty remarkable the way they held together, given that collapse in the cattle.

Grains Make New Highs for the Move Then Collapse
Grains made new highs for the move and soybeans took out the November highs overnight before seeing risk off selling pressure tied to the Iran tensions and the higher dollar. Kooima says for soybeans the concern is that China is backing Iran in the Middle East conflict and that could cause them to back away from the April meeting.

“Epecially for China, they’re not a fan of this whole operation. I’m afraid sooner rather than later, where South America becomes a viable alternative for them to get their stuff from, then I worry that you’re going to start to hear, well, what about that supposed 25 million metric tons that they were going to get from us? How come they’re not doing that? This action makes me a little queasy. New highs for the move and then lower for the day.”

He says while he’s cautious on soybeans making a top, seasonally it is the time of year where corn can rally especially due to a weather problem. “It’s not the time of year usually where it pays to be real bearish, usually between March 1 and May 1 the market sees a little life,” he explains.

The Corn Fed Advantage? What’s Really Driving Growing Global Demand for U.S. Beef

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 20:54:14 GMT

Final 2025 export numbers are in, and while U.S. beef exports reflected the realities of tighter cattle supplies and lost access to China, the broader global demand story remains historically strong, according to Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

Speaking during Commodity Classic, Halstrom detailed not only where exports landed in 2025, but what the numbers mean for cattle producers, grain farmers and the industry’s outlook in 2026 as the United States’ ability to supply high-quality corn-fed beef is feeding some of that growth in demand.

2025 Beef Numbers: China Drives the Decline

Looking back at 2025, Halstrom says most of the anticipated decline in beef exports materialized due to tight cattle supplies. But the magnitude of the drop largely centered on one country.

“Looking at the beef side, yeah, we’re down about 10%, 11%,” he says. “But majority of that is China.”
Halstrom says if you take out China, beef demand is steady compared to 2024, which was a historic year.
The issue with China traces back to last April, when China did not renew export registrations for approximately 400 U.S. beef establishments.

“Unfortunately, that was implemented, the ban on the establishments, or they didn’t renew the establishments last April, and that’s the primary reason we’re down,” Halstrom explains.

However, he was quick to point out that removing China from the equation changes the narrative significantly.
“So you take China out of the mix, our value is steady with a year ago, and we’re only down a couple percent on volume,” he says. “So I think that’s the real story here.”

While regaining access to China remains a priority, and could be a topic of discussion when China and the U.S. are poised to hold trade talks in April, Halstrom says the broader global marketplace is performing at exceptionally high levels.

“Obviously, it’s a real priority to try to get China back going again and it’s top of USTR’s list,” he says. “But the real story is that the rest of the world demand is record-breaking and it is really performing.”

With a potential meeting planned between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in early April, Halstrom said he is cautiously optimistic.

“Well, I’m optimistic it will be, yes,” he said when asked whether trade would be part of the discussion. “Because, in my opinion, this is a political thing.”

He adds that from an administrative standpoint, restoring plant listings could be straightforward.
“The actual relisting of 400 establishments is relatively easy, if they choose to do it, in my opinion, from what we’ve heard,” Halstrom says. “So a momentous event like Trump and Xi spending a few days together, as it is planned in early April, could potentially be a breakthrough moment — and at least the first step in a breakthrough.”

Demand is “As Good As I’ve Ever Seen It”

Even without China fully active, Halstrom repeatedly returned to one theme: demand.

“Demand is not a problem,” he said. “The under-supply of cattle is a problem, we all know that, but demand is as good as I’ve ever seen it.”

He pointed to emerging shifts in buyer behavior, particularly in Latin America.

“There’s markets like Guatemala, Central America, even Mexico, that are demanding Choice and higher-graded beef from the U.S.,” he said. “That didn’t use to five to 10 years ago.”

The scale of the shift is notable given current price levels, according to Halstrom.

“Who would have thought that I would never have thought a place like Guatemala would be demanding Prime beef from the U.S. when the cutout for Choice is $360 and higher,” Halstrom says “It’s unbelievable what’s going on.”

After more than four decades in the meat export business, he described the current environment as unprecedented.

“I’ve been in this business now 43, 44th year,” he says. “We’re in an unprecedented area of demand for our product.”

The Corn-Fed Advantage

Halstrom attributed much of that sustained global interest to the unique characteristics of U.S. production.

“A lot of it is the corn-fed product that creates this marbling and this rich taste,” he says. “Nobody else in the world can copy it.”

That differentiation continues to allow U.S. beef to compete at premium price levels, even in developing markets that historically prioritized lower-cost protein options.

Corn and Soybean Growers Aren’t Just Exporting Grain

During Commodity Classic this week, Halstrom emphasized the measurable return meat exports generate for crop producers.

“We actually just finished the computations for 2025,” he says. “Every bushel of corn, $0.58 per bushel of that value is attributable to exports of U.S. pork and beef.”

The soybean impact was even more striking.

“On the soybean side, it was a little over $1 a bushel, just attributable to pork exports,” Halstrom says.
Halstrom says U.S. grain producers aren’t just exporting grain. They’re also exporting meat.

The 2026 Wild Card

Asked what single factor he is watching most closely in 2026, Halstrom again circled back to demand.
“Demand,” he says. “Demand is as good as I’ve ever seen.”

With historically tight cattle supplies likely to persist, maintaining that appetite at elevated price levels will be critical.

“It’s really hard to explain unless you’ve seen it,” Halstrom said of the current export climate. “It’s unbelievable what’s going on.”

If demand continues at today’s pace, and if China reenters the market, the ripple effects could extend well beyond the beef complex, reinforcing value throughout the feed and grain sectors once again.

Cattle Start Higher Monday on COF Report, Cash: Uncertainty on Plant Strike, Tariffs Remains

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:30:16 GMT

Markets opened mixed on Monday but early in the session turned mostly higher except wheat.

Cattle Firm After Friendly Cattle on Feed
The cattle futures were higher early Monday rebounding from Friday’s lower close and a round of profit taking. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the USDA Cattle on Feed report was providing some support. The on feed number came in at 98% of a year ago, placements were at 95% which was below trade estimates and marketings were at 87%.

“Remember this is the second report now that is as compared to when the border had been closed. So the the Texas placement number coming in at 93% that’s 93% of a very small number of the total 98%, again, you get it, right? We’re placing against something that was very small back then. Now, the thing that is a little bit different and consistent with what it’s been is that the two northern states, Nebraska, on feed at 103%. They are easily the number one state now for cattle on feed. Iowa at 100 % on feed. One thing about good old Iowa here, I happen to notice our marketing figure was 115%, which is I’m really glad to see that.” That’s because he was worried some feeders are intentionally feeding these cattle to heavier weights with cheap corn and high priced replacements, plus good weather. .

He adds, “You know that Texas placement number is still 80% of the five -year average to get a little more perspective, even if how that works. So yeah, we got through that.”

Greeley, CO Plant Strike
The other news on Friday was the workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, CO did not strike but the situation has not been resolved. “They got through that first set of meetings on Friday, they’re making steps, but again, this could be posturing. I mean, they’ve set up sign -up sheets. So this is where you sign up if you want to get benefits if they go on strike. So it would seem like there’s some prep on the labor’s part, but again, you know, that can be so much posturing. Of course, they’re killing today.
I don’t know that there’s another meeting scheduled. These negotiations have been going on for more than eight months. So we’ll see. Let’s hope that they strike a deal and we can get on down the road. Any kind of lengthy stoppage there would be
very problematic. That’s a very big plant. JBS’s biggest one or one of their biggest ones at 5 ,400. So hopefully we can put this matter to rest by the time we talk next week, but I got a hunch we won’t. I think this is going to be an ongoing issue.”

Cash Higher Last Week
Cash trade was also higher last week, but for Kooima some what underwhelming as he had talked about the possibility of $250 cash. “I was real confident we were going to have $2.50 up and down the road, you know, or at least, you know, a little more of it. So I shouldn’t say that I’m disappointed. Basically, the north, we ended up with bids of $247, and that would have been one to $2 higher than the week prior. So that’s not so bad. And $247 is still a huge price. Pardon Pardon me, the south,
particularly western Nebraska, did trade some cattle at $249, late Friday. For them, that was actually a $1 higher. So I’d call the cash market still good, but maybe a little bit underneath the expectations.”

He says this week there are a lot of cattle carried over. However, there aren’t big numbers. “If we can keep Greeley out of the news, I’m going to say steady better. I do think that people are, you know, after galloping higher for three straight weeks and then last week’s trade was kind of like, you know, grudgingly higher, a packer that was trying to play a little more hardball. Kill cuts are still very real. I don’t know. I’m going to say steady firm and I hope I’m wrong.”

Tariff Concerns
So is the cattle market at all concerned that SCOTUS struck down the IEEPA tariffs? President Trump put new tariffs of 15% on over the weekend for all but USMCA partners, China and the EU because of the current frameworks. However, Kooima says the market doesn’t like uncertainty so he says the jury is still out regarding the reaction and a lot will depend on whether countries retaliate, plus the stock market reaction.

Hogs Rally a Fifth Day
Lean hog futures are up a 5th day on short covering. However, Kooima is still concerned that the market may have a difficult time rallying because of the big slaughter numbers. “We’re at an interesting spot here right now, you’re right, this fifth day up off the lows. This is 38 % retracement. I got the chart up above me here. Weights are big, cash was crappy on Friday down a couple bucks, product sloppy. It’s too many hogs. I mean, every day that slaughter is so big. We’ve got to have perfect demand, and I’m not sure we do. I think domestic demand is really quite good. Global demand, yeah, you know, not so much. And there, you know, the tariffs talk maybe gets to be something to be worried about, too. I don’t know. There’s a couple
of spots in the charts right here that I think are kind of critical resistance. My inclination would be to think maybe we would fail from here. I hope I’m wrong for the producers’ sake, but I don’t think we’re in a great spot fundamentally on the
hogs here at all, just because of the big supply.”

Corn, Soybeans Higher
Corn and soybeans have faded the concerns about retaliation regarding President Trump’s new tariffs or China back off the extra 8 MMT of soybean purchases as the SCOTUS ruling may have taken leverage away from the U.S. Part of the strength may be due to the Trump administration confirming the meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing on March 31-April 2. The other factor is soybean oil continues to make new contract highs on biofuels policy hopes.

“I think that that’s really the story there, the renewable fuel initiative here and the likelihood it will be positive. The feeling is that Washington indeed does need to throw a bone here to the row crop crop people, and that would certainly be a good one. So the new contract highs today on the bean oil helps for sure,” he says.

Cattle Futures Pause But Can $250 Cash Spark New Highs? Corn, Soybeans End Flat

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 22:15:54 GMT

Cattle end mixed on Wednesday, hogs extend gains. Grains ended mostly higher.

Cattle Pause Just Off Fresh Highs
Cattle futures paused Wednesday and consolidated under some new highs for the move scored on Tuesday when the cattle futures were working in higher cash trade. Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says futures are getting overbought and ran into another layer of chart resistance.

“I think yes to the chart resistance. You had some of the months. I’m looking at the April contract. You know, we gapped higher yesterday, got right up against the high that we had made here about two weeks ago and then pulled back. But really,
the pattern of the day, I didn’t feel bad at all about Michelle. We started out lower early, old saying from an old guy, bull markets start lower every day, and then they can’t keep them that way. We’ve all sat through these bear market deals where the market tries to rally early, only to see it erode and erode and you know it’s like watching a soccer game with stoppage time you just wish the market would close before it gets any worse right and so I thought all and all not a bad day.”

Higher Cash This Week?
Last week’s five area weighted average steer was at $245.62, up $4.31. However, there was already some cash trade this week at $249 in Texas and $250 in Iowa says Kooima. So he thinks both the North and South will see higher cash at $250 this week. “We’ve got leverage and you know, it’s three weeks in a row, sharply higher on the cash market. And I think we got a real shot at being higher again this week. So I would guess, knowing the packers, I wonder if they’re going to wait until after the Cattle on Feed report in hopes that maybe somehow that report’s bearish enough that they don’t have to chase. But I think a lot of asking prices are on that $2.50 mark. And I guess I’m going to stick to my guns. And I’ll say that. I think we’re going to get there.”

Markets Into Tightest Numbers
The market is into the tightest cattle numbers so packers are scrambling and that also gives Kooima ammunition for the prediction.

“I had felt that somewhere late in the first quarter was when our numbers were going to be the tightest. I mentioned on your program, too, I was a little worried about the breakevens and some of these yearling cattle are very, very high. You know, $250 or more. You know, there’s, the irony lost on me that you could you could get $250 and the cattle not make money. Now that we have reached these levels the the odds of us staying more current or being more willing sellers are also I think improved you know a lot of these a lot of the the feed yards have consciously added weight to the cattle to lower their break evens okay um and And that’s very evident.”

However, he says show lists up in the North are the shortest they have been, basically for this entire bull market cattle cycle and yearlings are hard to find. “And, of course, the South is still affected largely by, you know, the border being closed.”

New Highs?
Kooima thinks with higher cash the futures market will take a run at the gap area, “And then I find it hard to imagine that the market’s going to go right up to that gap for anybody that’s ever looked at a chart in their whole life. And then that’s going to be the magic number. That would be the first time. It’s not that easy. And so I wonder if we get close and fail or actually, I feel like maybe the odds are better that if this cash continues to perform like this, we might just take a run at taking a shot at taking those highs out. And maybe that’s a high that maybe you and I will be talking about for a while. So I feel like if this was a football game, I think we’re in the fourth quarter, okay, toward the end of this bull cycle, because I just worry that either a weight problem or something with the news of the economy or who knows, whatever, beef’s too high, if that rears its head again with some other attempt to change that. You got a border that could open. You know, I just, I like the market. I’m bullish, but let’s be careful up here. It’s been a heck of a move.”

Possible Greeley, CO Plant Strike
The market is also cautious ahead of a possible strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado. The vote on whether workers strike or accept the company’s offer will be decided on Friday.

Kooima says,"If you are a packer and you’re having this kind of a work stoppage, you know, it’d be one thing if you’re making $300 a head on everything you’re killing, but the opposite is the case. I mean, cattle are hard to find, you’re losing money on all the ones that you’re killing now. There is a terrible lot of formula cattle that go through there. That might impact her thinking a little bit. But, you know, it seems like in a way it’d be no better time for a work stoppage than now. So I don’t want to imply anything at all, but to me, the risk of at least a temporary work stoppage here. These negotiations have been gone on for over eight months, and they haven’t reached an agreement yet. So I know I’m watching it to see if there’s maybe a little bit of temporary negative news that might hit the market here over the weekend. I hope not.”

However, the knee jerk reaction will be negative as this is a 5,400 head plant and one of the biggest in the JBS system.

Cattle on Feed Positioning
The market is also gearing up for the USDA Cattle on Feed Report. Early guesses show placements down 4% and marketings also down 13%. He says the marketings number is no surprise. “Especially when you’re talking about less cattle on feed and then the fact that they’re just consciously making them, feed them longer, making them bigger. This is the second report that is a comparison to when the border has been closed. So, you know, you’re talking three or four percent less of a very small number of placements, just so everybody remembers that on feed at 98.5%. Also comparing to a smaller number, We’ll see what’s where that marketing number comes out. The guess, like you said, 87, I don’t know that the market, unless there’s some major surprise, I don’t think the market will spend a lot of times dwelling on the numbers unless they’re completely different than the guesses.”

Hogs Up a Second Day
Lean hog futures were higher for a second day on continued short covering. The market got oversold but Kooima says funds have been slow to get out of their massively long position. “You know, the funds really haven’t budged. Not really. I thought I thought maybe we’d see a big drop in the open interest here on this break. I guess that’s going to cut two ways. So tomorrow’s the third day up. I know that’s an oversimplistic way to look at it, but sometimes I overthink it. I think we’re going to learn a little bit more about the hogs tomorrow. If we can sustain a third day up against this downtrend that we just started here, then maybe I’ll feel differently. Right now I’m more inclined to sell rallies because I think that global demand has been not great. Domestic demand is good, but a lot of hogs coming at us here. And I think we’ve ran that, you know, disease story about as far as we can go. So let’s see what happens here tomorrow. If I had a guess it, I’d say open higher and fail, but we’ll see.”

Corn and Soybeans End Nearly Flat
Corn and soybeans ended nearly flat after early strength despite the rally in wheat and new contract highs in soybean oil. Soybeans made new highs for the move early but failed at resistance and Kooima thinks the market needs confirmation of China business before it can move higher. Additionally, soybean oil is rallying on optimism that EPA will submit proposed RVOs for biomass based diesel for 2026 to the White House this week for final rule and they will show a large increase in blending levels. However, he is fearful the market is getting ahead of itself. “You’d think the administration would be happy to throw a bone at the farmers here but the rally is built on hope and speculation. Let’s hope it come through.”

The corn market held against an emerging uptrend line but thinks it will need more good news to keep rallying. “We need to get thinking about tomorrow on the grains. We need to be thinking about how much, hopefully, less corn acres we
plant, maybe some weather risk. Maybe we’ll talk about this Drought Monitor showing how dry it is in the Eastern Corn Belt. In other words, we need to put this big crop, big acres problem that the corn has here for the last several weeks since that report and starting thinking ahead. Otherwise we’re going to struggle,” Kooima adds.

Cattle Futures Await Cash Push to Break to New Highs: Grains See Profit Taking

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 16:22:25 GMT

Livestock are leaning higher early Friday with grains mostly lower.

Cattle Recover Awaiting Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures are recovering from the lower day yesterday. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures have been chopping back and forth this week and need to take out last week’s highs on the charts to break out and to new highs. “I mean it had this big push behind it and we’re gunning for those gaps that are at the record high prices and thinking, okay, here we go. And then when we set sideways, we get a little bit antsy here and you start to get a little bit nervous. I think this week, I think there was plenty of people that were starting to teeter. Okay. I was feeling pretty confident now I’m more in the 50 -50 and I think that’s okay.”

Market Needs Higher Cash to Continue the Rally
The futures market is awaiting cash for direction and Varilek says higher cash above last week’s $245 in the South could help push the futures to new all-time highs.

“But what we would need to punch up there, I think is some higher cash. And the The good news is we’re in the time of the year when that can happen. So we had $245 in the South last week. I think that they can get it this week pretty easy, but I feel like they’re going to start asking some higher prices. So there’s a chance for that, you know, that cash to poke through. I get nervous when I’m relying on Southern cash, I guess, in general. But Just the feeling is that that could happen. You know, we’re our seasonal cash highs, second, third week of March, and we’ve got, you know, some good things to look forward to.”

He also believes Northern cash trade on fed cattle will be higher this week. “It was a little sloppy last week, you know. It was, okay, we’re above $240, we’re at $241. I’m going to sell a few just to kind of make sure this is real. Am I dreaming? And then $242, and I think that caught some cattle. As high as $244, and that would have been on unlimited numbers. Nobody could get the $245 up here. There were some rumors of that last week that there was a Packer there, but I don’t. I think that one was false. So It’d be hard, you know, for us to not, we’re not going to probably sell it more. We’re going to try to get those extra dollars there.”

The only concern he has is with excellent feeding weather carcass weights are huge and the packers may use that to try to regain some leverage. “Plus, we’ve got some kill cuts, you know, with the tight numbers. And with Lexington down, we’re still doing kill cuts. I mean, that’s just how emergency tight we were. So we’ve got a couple packers that’ll be closed on Monday for President’s Day, maybe just backing up these cattle more so they can crank it up when we get into March there.”

Cargill Ground Beef Plant to Close
News on Thursday indicated the Cargill ground beef plant in Wisconsin would be closing mid-April. However, he says it won’t have a market impact, especially because there is excess slaughter capacity. “But no, it shouldn’t affect anything. We’ve been able to handle any of these, you know, plants that are kind of closing and even the minor ones, because we’re still shipping cattle from here to Cactus, Texas. I mean, that’s just a regular thing going from north to south. And I don’t see any problems with it,” He does add that some old news on the possible strike at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO was part of the weakness in the market Thursday.

.Optimistic About Spring Demand and Rally
Varilek says beef demand is slow in January and February and so that is a bit of headwind right now but he is still optimistic about a normal spring rally as demand ramps up.

He explains, “January is always your lowest demand time of the year. And then February is kind of your close and you might get a little of tick for Valentine’s Day, but not much. But what we’ve kind of seen over the last few months is the big shift to the chuck and the rounds and the big drop in the rib eye rolls. And that happened a little bit more dramatic on a percentage basis than what it normally does. You know, the ribsdrop 25 percent, normally drop 20. And the chucks in the rounds really caught a big boost. So for me, I’m looking for that to shift. I mean, I’m feeling good. I don’t think that there’s negative news out there, or we have a black eye from any kind of a story on demand that consumers still want beef. And so I’m looking forward to
it. I still think that’s going to happen.”

And that is when Varilek thinks the futures will have the best chance of making new all-time highs.

Hogs Try to Recover
Lean hog futures were down six sessions and did some technical damage on the charts on fund liquidation and profit taking. However, Varilek says the market was also concerned about the U.S. pulling out of the USMCA as Mexico is the largest export market for U.S. pork and the U.S. also relies on Canada for feeder pig supplies.

He says, “It was such a nice, long, hard work uptrend and it felt good and then, you know, sharply lower, two gaps lower we’ve had in the chart here on the
way down. And yes, a lot of that is tied to the, you know, Trump’s starting to talk about trade deals again, thinking about pulling out of the USMCA and it’s makes the hog market a little bit nervous because they need Mexico. It’s a big customer for us and then you throw Canada in the mix too. I mean, the hog market needs those countries. So it was an automatic, okay, the funds need to probably liquidate some. We need to correct this market because we’re just a little bit scared of that kind of news. I mean, cash is as good as it’s been in a while. That feels okay. The cutouts may be a little bit sloppy, but it was just kind of a, okay, Let’s protect ourselves a little bit and see what shakes out.”

He still thinks the hog market can move higher with disease issues supporting the back months. “I think the overall story for me is that I’m still feeling, okay, about the overall hog market and that we can move higher. Our feeder pig prices are still very high and tough to find. So disease, those issues are still there. If we’d get that third gap lower, that’s what they call an exhaustion gap. So I think that there’s actually some people hoping for that saying, okay, we get a third gap lower. I’m going to be in there. That’s my buying opportunity. And I think that’s what we would see.”

Grains See Profit Taking Pre-Holiday
Grain futures had a strong technical close yesterday with a chart breakout in soybeans and wheat. However, Varilek says the market may take a break today and see some profit taking heading into a three day holiday.

“It’s a little bit of profit taking here on some of these markets. We’ve had a big charge. We’re getting through moving averages. We’re through retracement levels. And, you know, the next goals are some of those old highs, which, you know, another 20 cents in the beans is where it would run into its next resistance. But, so just taking a little bit off today. And for me, it’s, okay, do we really have the news behind us to, to break through a topside? And I’m just not there. I don’t, I don’t think we have it from February 13 today to March, the end of March, when we get our acreage report. We are generally a pretty sluggish market unless there’s some kind of news happening in South America. And I just think that’s where we’re at. I don’t feel like it has the bull being fed hard enough here to keep it going. So these Friday corrections do not surprise me at all. I still think it needs something bigger to try to break it out,” he explains.

Cattle Extend Gains on Higher Cash, Fade Argentina Beef Import Hike: Will Cash be Higher Again This Week?

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 16:45:08 GMT

Cattle were higher early Monday with grain and hog markets slightly lower.

Cattle Extend Gains on Higher Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher early Monday extending gains after Friday’s higher cash trade says Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek. Southern deals were $242 to mostly $245, up $3 to $6 from last week’s weighted averages. Northern trade was $378 dressed, up $1 from the previous week with live sale prices at $240 to $244. Kooima says this is positive for the market and helped futures recover from the steep selloff on Thursday tied to the concern about a worker strike at the JSB beef plant in Greeley, CO.

Higher Cash This Week
He says showlists are smaller this week and so he sees higher cash trade again for this week. “I think we have a shot at More general $245 across the north, there was a bit of that in the south last week. I think that’s where asking prices are. I know I’m hearing these packers are getting a little closer to the knife, using up some of the inventory that they had bought. A lot of cattle getting scheduled that had been bought two weeks ago. I think that there’s multiple packers that are going to be needing to buy some inventory here. We do have maybe maybe a pseudo holiday a little bit. Usually we get a pretty good kill on President’s Day, but that might factor in a bit. But I think, I think, yeah, I think we’re going to be higher this week. I think we got a shot at $250 here in a few weeks.”

Basis Flip
While cash was strong last week, Kooima says the basis has now flipped with futures being the follower of cash rather than leading it. “Which is a little unusual and a little annoying. but, you know, I mean, I guess I prefer the basis flipped like it is, but that’s two Fridays in a row where the cash market is really outperformed, almost everyone’s expectations, put on basically $10 here in two weeks. And the story doesn’t change. It’s because there’s not enough cattle to go around.”

Higher Weights Offset Packer Kill Cuts
Packer kill cuts are still prominent in the market as many have dropped to 32 hour a week kills, putting last week’s slaughter at only 536,000. Kooima says its a function of how tight the numbers really are. “That’s why packers are going 32 hours. The numbers, like I’ve been saying, I think they’re the tightest of the whole cycle here right now, where we are, anyway. And, of course, the South is going on 14 months, of course, with the border being closed. So we’re still there.” However, at some point he cautions that the best news will be priced into the futures. Still Kooima says the numbers are being offset by the higher weights.

Argentina Beef Imports Bump Digested
Argentina beef import news was digested by the market on Friday according to Kooima. The market was aware of the deal struck between the U.S. and Argentina to raised the beef import quota from 20,000 MT to 100,000 MT. However, President Trump’s executive order to raise the imports on Friday was another reminder and took the futures market off its highs. Kooima says it is only about 2% of total imports and insignificant overall.

“Is it a huge amount, a significant amount, a game -changing kind of amount? No, no, it’s not at all. I no point in me being real political here, but I am extremely, extremely frustrated with this whole notion that’s beef is too high. It is what it is. And a lot of things are too high if you want to go there, right? And I think the government needs to stay out of it and let the market do its job and we’ll figure it out. The amount of beef from Argentine is not a significant amount. I get it. We’ve got to have hamburger, but there’s a lot. We don’t need anybody in Washington, D .C., trying to control what the cattle prices are or what they are, So we’re telling me that’s too high.”

Market Needs to Retest Last Week’s Highs
Kooima says last week the futures made new highs for the move in both feeder and live cattle futures before the big correction on Thursday. He thinks to keep the rally alive the market will need to take out those last week’s highs and also fill the gap area on the charts left after the Thursday’s open.

JBS Strike Could Happen
Kooima says the JBS strike could happen in the near future.

“If you just kind of think about it a little bit, and the way I would think about it, they’ve been negotiating for what, eight months, haven’t been able to come up with a deal. If you’re a packer where numbers are tight. You’re forced to pay more than you want to for life cattle. What you are killing is losing money. I mean, it wouldn’t be the worst time in the world for work stoppage, right, for a little while. And I’m not saying that that’s their intent at all, but I’m just speaking reality. It doesn’t seem like they’re highly incentivized to, like they would be if they were making lots of money to let’s get a quick resolution to this thing and so we can keep blood on the floor. So we’ll see. Now, if it’s a short period of time, I think you have to balance that, though.
It’s hard enough to find people to work at a bank, bank, let alone people to work at a packing house. I mean, I would think that as an employer in that situation, you would be a little concerned about losing your workforce, particularly when it’s really difficult to maintain that kind of consistent employment at a place like that. So hopefully it doesn’t happen at all. If it does, it’s only a short time. If it only is a few days, I don’t think it’ll hurt the market. If it, you know, obviously, if it lasts longer than that, it potentially would have an effect on, you know, unbalancing the supply again. Yeah, for sure. We’re already seeing kill cuts.”

Hog Futures See Hedge Pressure
Lean hog futures were lower on Monday and have consolidated off recent contract highs. Some of the set back is profit taking, but it’s mostly hedge pressure according to Kooima. “If you’re a hog hedger and, you know, if you are, I’m proud of you because there isn’t very many of the independence left anymore. But you’ve got a market here that’s been overbought since the first week of December. Like hogs like to do, we go straight up and straight
down. We go from $93 to $112. Okay, that’s a big move. “

The fundamentals, are supportive with tighter numbers tied to disease problems but the funds are long over 128,000 contracts and may also be ready for a deeper profit taking correction he says.

Soybeans and Corn Fade
Soybeans were lower early Monday after ending well off of session highs on Friday on profit taking and farmer selling. Kooima says the market is looking for more confirmation of China business as well. USDA announced a flash sale of 9.7 million bu. of soybeans to China Monday morning but the market will need more to continue higher especially Brazil’s record crop on the way.

Corn Stalls Ahead of WASDE
Corn futures were only up two cents last week on the March compared to 50 cents in March soybeans and so it is unlikely the market can find any news to help rally the market. In fact, Kooima is concerned that the WASDE will be another bearish reminder of the large 2.2 billion bu. ending stocks. “But I think we’ve struggled to stay steady on the corn, frankly. I hope we do for the producers’ sake, but we’ve got some pretty negative fundamentals to work with,” he adds.

Cattle Recover on Higher Cash, Fade Plant Strike: Soybeans Hit New Highs with China Push

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 16:13:40 GMT

Cattle and hogs are higher early Friday. Soybeans are also up a third day with corn and wheat struggling.

Cattle Recover Fading Possible Plant Strike
Cattle futures were down sharply on Thursday and touched limit down on some contracts with fear of a workers strike and the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market tanked as there were no buy orders in to stabilize the market. However, he says some of the crash was tied to profit taking after the market got overbought. Cattle rallied Monday through Wednesday into new highs for the move and were due for a correction. He thinks even if the 5,400 head beef plant saw a shutdown it would be short lived and there is enough open capacity in the packing industry right now to easily absorb the loss.

Higher Cash Pulls Futures Back Up
The big gains in the futures are also tied to higher cash trade and producers lifting their short hedges. Varilek says on Thursday afternoon packers tried to low ball bid at $238 which was passed and by the end of the day they bought cattle at $241 live. The bids are now up to $242 which implies higher cash when the dust settles.

Spring Rally Coming
Varilek says despite some temporary corrections in the futures market he is fully expecting the futures to have their normal spring rally. It will get an extra push this year from cattle supplies getting into the tightest numbers in the cycle.

Argentina Beef Imports to Rise
The U.S. and Argentina also announced a trade deal on Thursday that includes more beef imports. Argentina’s quota will rise from 20,000 MT to 100,000 MT. However, Varilek says this is still a small amount and won’t have much impact on supplies or market prices. He says the bigger concern and impact comes from Brazilian imports.

Heifer Retention and Beef on Dairy
Varilek says longer term he is expecting the cattle herd to start a slow rebuild. While inventory was down .4% and beef cow numbers were down 1% in the USDA report. There was a hint of heifer retention starting to show up and so he is watching that for signs of expansion and bigger beef supplies.

Meanwhile, the number of milk cows was up 2% year over year and speaks to the push for more beef on dairy. Producers have been retaining more cows because they can sex the semen and create another revenue stream by using even cows they would normally cull to carry those valuable calves. Wet calves are selling for upwards of $1,500 and there are many dairy operations that can sex the semen to create more bull calves that they feed out themselves to sell.

Hogs Rebound With Cattle
Lean hogs futures were down yesterday with cattle and saw some profit taking after new contract highs were scored on Wednesday. The market continues to be bought by the funds on breaks and the summer months are being supported by disease and the lack of isowean pigs available. Plus, those isowean prices have jumped well over $100. The summer month futures getting above $110 chart resistance was clearly a signal to the funds to keep buying.

Soybeans Make New Highs For the Move
Soybean futures made new highs for the move again Friday morning with continued fund buying. The market is still trying to price in the additional 294 million bu. of soybeans that China could possibly buy. However, Varilek is skeptical it will happen so he is recommending producers use the rally to make some sales.

Corn Fails at Resistance
Even with the big rally in soybeans this week of over 50-cents the corn market has barely budged and hit chart resistance in the March around the $4.25 area and failed. Varilek says farmers are also selling at those levels trying to chew through this massive 2.2 billion bu. plus carryover. So, he is not optimistic about corn taking out overhead chart areas to produce a more sustained rally.

Can Cattle Recover From the NWS Selloff? Grains Ease on EU Tariff Fears

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 16:08:03 GMT

Cattle futures are mostly higher early Tuesday as well as hogs, while grains are slightly lower

Can Cattle Recover From NWS Selloff?
Live and feeder cattle futures are trying to recover after a selloff of over $4 in live cattle and $8 in feeder cattle on Friday. Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the markets were down sharply on Friday due to an unconfirmed rumor of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the New Mexico. Fear was also tied to comments by Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller who stated that NWS cases only 215 miles from the Texas border warranted increased monitoring by producers. USDA later confirmed there were no positive cases.

So can the market recover now that there is no confirmed NWS case? Kooima says that would normally be the school of thought. However, with outside markets seeing risk off selling that may temper some of the buying interest in cattle today.

Risk Off Market Place Holding Back Cattle
Over the weekend the U.S. announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries starting on Feb. 1 if the EU did not sell Greenland to the United States. The EU responded with the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. companies operating in Europe of $93 billion Euros. Kooima says the bigger concern is that this will anger China or spark a possible move by Beijing to take over Taiwan. All of this could upset the U.S. China trade truce which would be negative for the outside and equity markets and that could spill over negatively on the cattle futures.

Cash Cattle Trade Steady Last Week, Key for Direction This Week
Kooima says he thought it was encouraging the selloff in the futures Friday only resulted in tempering the fed cash trade slightly as mostly steady cash trades took place in the North and South. The South traded $233 to $234 live and the North was $365 dressed and mostly $232 live. This week’s cash trade will be key to helping the futures market recover and he is hopeful for slightly higher prices. Although cash trade could be stalled until Friday after the USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Cattle on Feed Friday
Kooima says the report should remind the trade how tight inventory is. “We aren’t even into the tightest numbers yet,” he reiterated, “And this report should reinforce that with the lighter placements, especially in the South due to the lack of Mexican feeder cattle being placed in feedlots.”

Lean Hog Futures Hitting Contract Highs
Lean hog futures were mostly lower again Tuesday morning making more contract highs in the April through the deferred futures. The market has seen fund buying pushing the rally but its also related to disease problems that are lifting isowean pig prices over $100 and creating another marketing hole for the summer months.

Grains Ease on EU Tariff Fears
After a higher close Friday, the grain markets are easing back with fears about retaliation from the EU or even China plus the risk off selling in outside markets is spillover over. Kooima says even without that negative news the grain markets don’t have much positive to trade on. He says the bigger supplies in the last Monday’s USDA reports is likely to keep a lid on prices, in addition to Brazil’s record soybean crop starting to come to the market.

Strong Cash Trade Supports Cattle Futures as Feeders Lead: Grains Mixed

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 16:21:46 GMT

Cattle and hog futures started lower on Friday morning. Grains markets saw pressure in corn and wheat with a little bounce in soybeans.

Cattle Start Weak Awaiting Cash Direction
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday as the markets have hit some chart resistance and are overbought according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek. However, it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.

Fed Cash Trade Light But Strong
Fed cash cattle trade has been light this week but there was some Northern trade on Thursday paid by at major packer at $228 on a string of around 1,400 head that he was spooked the market. However, it was an outlier as bids started surfacing at $232 offered by three majors that were mostly passed on by feedlots. On the mandatory report USDA also had Northern dressed trade at $360 to mostly $365, which is up $5 from last week’s weighted averages. So, Varilek is anticipating higher fed cash to break Friday and the futures market is as well.

Cash Feeders on Fire
Varilek says the real leadership has been in the feeder cattle market as cash at auction barns has been on fire and the index has tacked on about $19 for the week. So, feeders have been the leaders on tight supplies.

More NWS Cases
However, there was another New World Screwworm (NWS) case that was report in Mexico on an older cow on Friday and there have been additional cases reported on calves. Varilek says there was a lot of talk in the market that the border was going to open to imports of Mexican feeder cattle by the first of the year. However, the additional cases continue to keep the market optimistic and just adds to the already tight supply situation.

Tyson Plant Closure in Lexington, Neb.
Tyson’s beef plant in Lexington, Neb. was initially scheduled to close operations on Jan. 20 but Varilek says their sources say there are no shifts scheduled for next week. He says the closure of the plant will have a negative impact on the amount of negotiated cattle traded in Nebraska. “That was a formula cattle plant and so now those cattle will get divided up and sold at Dakota City and North Platte which will mean fewer homes for negotiated cattle and that isn’t good for the market.”

2025 Cattle Slaughter Tells the Story
USDA’s slaughter figures for 2025 did show total inventory was down over 6% from the previous year. However, Varilek says the other story that was hidden in that data is that beef cow slaughter was down 17% from a year ago. This is lower than in recent previous years and indicates to him that there is some female retention starting to take place.

Lean Hogs Fall with Cash
Lean hog futures were down early on Friday on profit taking after running into chart resistance and getting oversold after Feb. hit 2.5 month highs. However, Varilek says the cash trade is also getting sloppy. The national negotiated cash market was down $3.24 on yesterday’s close and the lean hog index was down $.27 coming into the session at $80.98. However, he says the summer months are still well above $100 which is an indication of the disease reduced inventory expected in that time frame.

Grains Position Ahead of Reports
Corn and wheat were lower early Friday with the stronger dollar, while soybeans saw a bounce on a flash sale of 7.3 million bu. to unknown destinations. However, Varilek says the markets are more dominated by positioning ahead of the big USDA reports on Monday.

Economists Forecast Farm Economy to Stabilize, But High Costs and Policy Uncertainty Block a 2026 Rebound

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 18:26:40 GMT

As 2026 ushers in a fresh start, agricultural economists say the U.S. farm economy has stopped sliding, but it’s far from fully healed.

The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows month-to-month sentiment is improving, but deep structural strain remains — especially in row crops. Meanwhile, livestock markets continue to provide strength. Crop producers face another year of tight margins driven by high input costs, weak prices and unresolved trade and policy uncertainty.

“There’s cautious optimism,” the economists say, “but very little belief that 2026 will bring a meaningful rebound without cost relief or stronger demand.”

Those themes mirror the perspective of Seth Meyer, former USDA chief economist and now director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri. In a recent interview, Meyer connected the dots between narrow margins, policy responses and what might actually move the dial for U.S. agriculture heading into 2026.

Stabilizing, Not Recovering

December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Economists see the ag economy holding its ground — but not gaining strength.

54% say the ag economy is somewhat better than one month ago.
Compared with a year ago:
- 42% say conditions are worse
- 33% say they are better
Looking ahead 12 months:
- 46% expect conditions unchanged
- 38% expect improvement
- 15% expect conditions to worsen

“Momentum has improved since mid-2025,” Meyer notes, “but tight margins have been with us for a long time. Turning that around requires demand growth, not just price stabilization.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

Grant Gardner, assistant Extension professor at the University of Kentucky, tells AgriTalk’s Chip Flory: “I think as we move into kind of this next marketing year, you’re looking at what looks like a breakeven and not a loss, but breakeven still doesn’t look great after three years of breakeven or losses.”

He says even with the $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Program payments , it won’t drastically change the outlook for the farm economy.

“Purdue had a good survey about a month ago, where they looked at what were these payments going to go to, and research would show that a lot of these payments go into long-term assets, and so land tractors, but I think over 60% of producers right now are in such a tight cash crunch that you’re going to see a lot of these payments go into that short-term debt,” Gardner says.

Consolidation a Growing Threat

Economists are nearly unanimous that the crop sector remains under extreme financial stress. 83 percent say row crops are currently in a recession. That isn’t about production declines — acres and yields haven’t collapsed — but about persistently weak profitability.

“Negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops,” one economist wrote in the survey.

Another said: “Margins remain below full costs of production for many producers.”

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes)

Meyer traces that back to how abruptly agriculture moved from the high prices of 2021 and 2022 into today’s tighter margins.

“We moved very quickly from a very high price environment and good profitability in 2022 to very tight margins,” he says. “That usually happens coming off price peaks, but this time it happened really rapidly.”

A minority of survey respondents argued farms are “treading water,” supported by strong land values and government aid rather than eroding further, which Meyer acknowledged aligns with how risk and safety nets have interacted this year.

But when you look at how the current stress in the farm economy could impact consolidation, the ag economists say it’s the economic pressure combined with demographic trends causing the acceleration. In fact, 92% of them say consolidation is underway and unavoidable.

“Markets go to the lowest-cost producers,” one economist wrote. “That sorting is consolidation on the production side.”

Aging producers exiting and rent-heavy operations under pressure only add fuel to that trend, with one economist saying: “Consolidation happens because producers have to exit, not because they want to.

What’s Driving the Farm Economy Right Now

When economists were asked to identify the two most important factors shaping agriculture’s economic health today, their responses clustered around a familiar, but increasingly sharp, divide: strong demand in livestock and the protein sector versus persistent oversupply and cost pressure in crops, all layered with trade and policy uncertainty.

Several economists pointed to continued strength in beef demand, both domestically and through export channels, as a key stabilizing force. While the dairy sector is an area that shows signs of weakness for 2026.

“Livestock revenues are a bright spot,” one respondent noted, underscoring why the livestock sector continues to outperform crops financially.

Looking to 2026, economists overwhelmingly point to input costs, not interest rates, as the biggest barrier to profitability. Nearly 70% cited input prices as the largest challenge as well, far ahead of trade concerns or capital availability.

Farm Journal’s December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lori Hayes )

“We have too much supply and not enough demand for row crops,” one economist wrote.

Another said: “Input costs are still too high.”

Trade remains a central wild card, especially relationships with China and uncertainty around global supply. Several respondents cited trade disputes and agreements as critical factors, along with questions about the size of South American crops and how that could shape global competition in the months ahead.

Policy uncertainty was also featured prominently, with economists pointing to domestic biofuels policy, government payments and broader market signals as factors influencing both short-term cash flow and longer-term demand growth.

Overall, economists say the ag economy is being pulled in opposite directions: strong livestock demand providing support, while crops struggle under high costs, oversupply and unresolved trade and policy questions — a dynamic that helps explain why the broader farm economy feels stable, but far from healthy, as 2026 approaches.

Livestock: A Continued Bright Spot

Livestock continues to stand out as the most financially healthy segment of the ag economy. Every economist surveyed rated beef as above average or excellent, supported by strong domestic demand and tight supplies. Dairy and pork were viewed as stable to moderately strong.

That success creates a stark contrast with row crops, where corn and cotton were cited by 38% each as the commodities most at risk financially in 2026.

What Could Move Crop Prices in the Next Six Months

Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, economists say crop prices will hinge less on domestic fundamentals and more on global supply, trade flows and policy clarity.

Across responses, South America emerged as the dominant influence, with economists repeatedly citing Brazilian weather, the size of the South American harvest and how those supplies compete with U.S. exports. Several noted that clarity around South American production will be critical in setting price direction for corn, soybeans and wheat.

Trade, particularly with China, remains another key swing factor. Economists emphasized not just the announcement of trade agreements, but whether purchases translate into actual shipments.

“China purchases of U.S. crops, but also if and when actual shipments occur,” one respondent noted, adding that details within any trade deal, including purchase commitments, will matter just as much as headlines.

Domestic factors still play a role, but economists see them as secondary in the near term. Input prices, early U.S. planting conditions and assumptions about 2026 acreage were all cited as important — especially as markets begin to trade expectations for next year’s crop mix.

Policy uncertainty also hangs over the outlook. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around trade policy, biofuels policy and broader economic conditions as variables that could amplify or mute price moves.

Economists say crop prices over the next six months are likely to be driven by how global supply unfolds, whether export demand materializes and how quickly policy uncertainty is resolved, rather than by any single domestic production shock.

Biofuels Policy: A Potential Turning Point?

One of the clearest themes Meyer highlights as a possible game changer for demand, and ultimately prices, is biofuels policy.

For economists, policy levers like year-round E15, Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes, 45Z investment tax credits and how small refinery exemptions are handled could meaningfully influence demand for corn and soybeans in 2026 and beyond.

“It’s one of the places where policymakers actually have levers to help with tight margins in the row crop sector,” Meyer says.

He emphasizes that final rules on RFS volumes and how biobased credits are implemented could impact feedstock demand.

“For the next couple of crop seasons, RVO (Renewable Volume Obligations) and how EPA reallocates small refinery exemptions are big factors,” Meyer says. “Should we raise the RVO to soak up that pool like a sponge? Should imported feedstocks get full 45Z credit? Those decisions could move demand.”

On year-round E15, a long-sought policy priority for corn growers, Meyer is cautiously optimistic.

“I do think it matters,” he says. “Maybe it’s not a huge swing this year, but offering certainty and building demand over multiple seasons is supportive. Other countries like Brazil are ramping up their biofuels production too, so this isn’t happening in a vacuum.”

Policy Uncertainty Still Looms

Economists also flagged top priorities for 2026 policy action:

Year-round E15 (row crops)
Trade policy clarity (row crops & livestock)
Labor reform and regulatory issues (livestock)

They also highlighted under-covered risks, which include pressure on land rents and values, labor shortages, biofuels policy details (such as 45Z credits) and slower population growth affecting long-term demand.

What Could Move Livestock and Dairy Prices in the Next Six Months

When economists look ahead to livestock and dairy markets in early 2026, they see a mix of strong demand signals, supply-side risks and policy uncertainty shaping price direction.

Consumer demand remains the cornerstone of the outlook, particularly for beef. Several economists pointed to continued buying interest from U.S. consumers as the primary support for cattle prices, even as affordability pressures rise. At the same time, some warned that a more “K-shaped” economy could begin to shift demand, pulling some consumers away from beef and toward pork.

Supply dynamics and herd trends are another major focus. Economists cited herd size, potential herd expansion and the availability of feeder cattle as critical variables. The expected resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico was highlighted as a key factor that could influence cattle supplies and pricing, depending on timing and volume.

Animal health risks also remain on the radar. Issues such as avian influenza, screwworm and other disease threats were mentioned as potential disruptors that could quickly alter supply conditions in both livestock and dairy markets.

Policy and trade uncertainty continues to hover over the sector. Economists pointed to ongoing questions around tariffs, restrictions on live animal trade with Mexico and the next steps under the USMCA as factors that could impact both imports and exports. Political uncertainty more broadly was also cited as a potential source of market volatility.

For dairy, economists noted that beef-on-dairy dynamics are likely to continue weighing on milk prices by increasing beef supplies while complicating dairy herd decisions.

Taken together, economists say livestock and dairy prices over the next six months will be driven by a delicate balance between strong consumer demand, evolving supply conditions and unresolved trade and policy questions, with any shift in one of those areas capable of moving markets quickly.

Acreage Expectations: Stress, Not Shock

Despite margin pressure, economists do not expect dramatic acreage pullbacks in 2026. Most expect:

Corn: 93 to 95 million acres
Soybeans: 84 to 86 million acres
Wheat: 44 to 45 million acres
Cotton: 9 to 10 million acres

Corn acreage expectations have edged lower since November, as economists backed away from another year above 95 million acres. At the same time, soybean acreage expectations have firmed, with 75% now targeting 84 to 86 million acres, suggesting stronger relative economics for beans.

“Export demand has helped keep corn acres supported,” Meyer says. “The question is whether that demand holds and whether policy supports it.”

As for acreage, the major impact on prices would be a large acreage reduction, which is unlikely.

“That’s what it comes down to, too. What I’ve been thinking about is what else can you use land for? And you’ve got the pushback on urban sprawl, you’ve got pushback on other uses for ag land. But right now, the simple fact is we’ve got way too much production. Without that slowing, or a drastic increase in demand, I don’t see prices improving to very lucrative levels,” Gardner says.

Overall, The Ag Economy Is a Grind, Not a Rebound

When you look at all the results from the December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists paint a picture of an industry that has stopped getting worse, but has not yet found a path to durable profitability.

Crops remain mired in margin compression; livestock continues to outperform but remains sensitive to policy decisions. Government aid is buying time but not addressing structural challenges, but it’s policy outcomes, especially around biofuels, trade and E15, that could be decisive in shaping 2026 outcomes.

For now, the farm economy has found a floor. The tougher question, economists say, is whether policy can help lift it, or if it will continue to grind forward without a genuine rebound.

Related News: As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

What it Will Take for Cattle Markets to Hit New Highs in 1Q

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 16:08:18 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans are higher on Tuesday morning, with hogs lower.

Cattle Futures Make New Highs for the Move
Both live and feeder cattle futures are making more new highs for the move following up gains from yesterday. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the recent strength has been a combination of fund buying and higher cash trade on both fed and feeder cattle/calves.

Cash Higher Last Week and Again This Week?
Cash cattle trade was higher last week with most of the live business done in the $232 area in the North and Southern feeding areas. The five area weighted average steer was reported by USDA at $231.68, up $2.35 from the previous week. Kooima says there was even some whisper trade late last week at $235 and so he is predicting the cash market will clock in at $235 in the fed market this week.

Cash Feeders Still on Fire
The cash feeder market is still red hot as well according to Kooima. Sale barns have been reporting continued strong demand and prices and the feeder cattle cash index is projected to be up another $9 today. This will keep feeders as the leaders in the market.

Technically Will the Cattle Futures Fill Chart Gap Areas?
Live and feeder cattle futures had chart breakouts late last week. Kooima says live cattle had been sideways the last couple of weeks but have now broke above those areas and could go up and retest the chart gap areas. He predicts the same for feeder futures and if those areas are filled, the market technically will have all the ammunition it needs to make new contract and all-time highs again, beating out the October 2025 highs.

What Will it Take for Cattle Futures to Hit Record Highs in 2026?
Kooima says the cattle market isn’t even into the tightest numbers and predicts those will be coming in the next 60 to 90 days. So he is optimistic about the futures making all time highs in 2026, likely in the first quarter. What will it take to get to new record highs? Kooima cites the following combination.
1. Continued higher fed and feeder cattle cash trade
2. Appreciation in boxed beef values
3. Additional buying by funds and managed money traders
4. Avoidance of black swan events

Lean Hogs Pause
After making new highs for the move in nearby futures Monday and contract highs in the summer months, the lean hog market took a break to start Tuesday. Kooima says a combination of profit taking and hedge selling may be the reason. Funds have been buying hogs and pushing the market higher because he says the fundamentals don’t suggest this kind of rally, especially with futures at a premium to the cash index.

Corn and Soybeans Continue to Rally?
The grain futures were all higher on Monday and corn and soybeans are extending gains early Tuesday. Kooima says some of the buying was tied to portfolio reallocation by the fund traders. However, talk of Sinograin buying 10 to 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans also drove the buying. USDA confirmed 12.3 million bu. of soybean sales to China this morning.

How much more upside is left in the grain market? Kooima says he thinks the correction in soybeans is limited and corn continues to just trade within its sideways range. Currently he doesn’t see anything to change that, especially with South America only showing limited weather problems in Argentina.

Cattle Break to Near Term Highs With Cash, NWS: Soybeans Grind to Fresh Lows

Fri, 02 Jan 2026 21:07:55 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended lower on Friday with a big rally in cattle futures.

Soybeans Make Fresh Lows
Soybeans made new lows for the move on Friday and ended the week losing another 27 cents on the March contract. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the soybean market saw technical selling but fundamental pressure came from the favorable weather in South America. Brazil has been getting rains and is on pace to have a record crop he says.

Weak Exports Also Plague Soybeans
Soybeans are also seeing liquidation by long traders as the export pace is running at a 14 year low with year to date sales at 986 million bu. and down 32% from last year. Varilek says this will be difficult to make up even with China fulfilling their entire purchase commitment. “I think the market got caught up in these trade deals and the idea we were going to get them done and we’re going to move some beans and then to hear those kind of low numbers. It’s it’s a little bit depressing. And now it’s like, okay, what else can come out of these trade deals,” he says.

Will the October Lows Be Tested in Soybeans?
The March soybean contract is on its way to testing the October lows which for the March contract set at $10.28 but Varilek says that is possible. “We broke out of the bottom side of the charts and so now we have the October lows kind of in sight. You know they’re not too far away. We’re through all the retracement levels, so I could see a little bit of a magnet effect for for that.”

Corn Sideways Until the WASDE
Corn futures were lower in tandem with lower soybeans and wheat futures and ended 12 cents lower for the week. While the March contact took out $4.40 support the bigger support area is at $4.35 which coincides with the bottom end of the trading range corn has been chopping in. Varilek expects this area to hold through the January WASDE. “We just don’t have enough positive momentum to get through the top of the charts even with strong exports and the lower yields expected in the January report. That’s because we continue to linger around the 2.0 billion bu. mark on ending stocks,” he explains.

New Year Fund Reallocation?
Could corn or the rest of the grain complex see some new money at the beginning of a new year on portfolio reallocation by the funds? Could they move money out of over extended precious metals into low valued grain markets? Varilek says it is possible but the evidence of that won’t be seen until after the first full trading week of the new year which volume is re-established.

Cattle Futures Break Out to New Highs
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move on Friday and had higher weekly closes. Feb. live cattle were up $6.35 and March feeder cattle futures gained $12.53 for the week. This came on the heels of stronger fed cash trade with mostly $232 live sales, up $2 to $3 from last week, in both the North and South. Northern dressed deals were also at mostly $360 to $362, up $4 from last week’s weighted average.

However, he is looking to the cash market for feeders as the real leader. “This cash market is is the lead dog for me right now. I mean cash feeders first that’s what really led this market, to where we got to this last year and that’s where we’re going to be looking again as we get into next week and start to get some more numbers,” he adds.

NWS Case Sparks Rally
New World Screwworm cases in a newborn calf 197 miles from the Mexican border and a case detected in a goat also helped to spur some buying interest in the feeder cattle futures with ideas it will slow the reopening of trade. “Just the fact that there’s still some cases down there maybe this reopening of the border doesn’t happen right away, you know, we were kind of thinking we were probably pretty close. Maybe you just kind of kicked that can down the road. And it could tell some guys, let’s get back into the sale barn and,get some feeders bought,” he adds.

How High Can Futures Rally?
Feeder cattle futures filled the gap area already on Wednesday and closed above that area which attracted some technical buying on Friday. The rally in feeders also finally pulled live cattle above chart resistance areas, including the 100-day moving average, which had kept the market sideways the last couple of weeks. So can the market continue to rally and maybe even retest the record highs from October? Varilek says technically feeders may try to fill the last gap area on the charts and if that is accomplished the highs will be in sight.

“It has the setup for it but just some of the worries that come along with it. Are we going to see some negative packer margins that are really going to affect this? You know, we’ve got Lexington closing. We’ve got Amarillo’s already gotten rid of their B shift. There there is some of that that you have to worry about yet, but it’s going to have to be the cash feeders that are going to have to do it,” he explains.

If feeders make new highs the question is do live cattle follow? Varilek says the cattle market could be getting into it’s tightest numbers. However, he’s not sure how much higher live cattle can run especially as cattle weights are heavy and he is seeing some signs of mild heifer retention.

Will the Funds Push the Market?
So if the market is going to return to the record highs it will take some help from the funds. “So there’s some of your hedge money, some of your fund money that’s available to look at that chart and say, hey, this thing still, has some potential to get back to some of those highs. So, uh, I think that there is a good room.” But he says January is a tough month for cash cattle to trend higher and it’s too early to talk about a spring rally.

Lean Hogs Stay Sideways?
Lean hog futures were lower on Friday seeing some follow through technical selling but still in a sideways range. Varilek says he thinks the market could stay range bound as it tries to absorb the increase in supplies the next six weeks. However, after that there may be some buying with ideas that disease will curb production.

Is the Slide in Grains All About South America? What Rallied Livestock Tuesday

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:26:18 GMT

Grains ended slightly lower on Tuesday with cattle and hogs higher.

Grains Slide Further on Year End Positioning
Grain markets all closed lower for a second day this week on follow through technical selling. Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders. “So we’ve got two weeks of holidays here. We’re at end of the quarter end of the year. A lot of reasons to take off risk for these markets in general. Along with that we also have some light fundamental news changes.” he says.

South American Weather Favorable
As especially the case for corn and soybeans the markets are also drifting says Nelson due to the lack of weather concerns in South America. Brazil has seen favorable weather and even the dryness in Argentina is starting to ease. Nelson says, “One of the news stories which has been removed, which have been lightly supportive, was this Argentine dryness story. Three weeks in a row, Argentina has seen normal to slightly above normal rain.”

Brazil’s production estimates, at least on soybeans, continue to creep higher and are now are even above 180 MMT. “USDA is not that much lower than everybody else. They are a little bit on the corn side. But for the most part, this market is not finding a rally story from South America. And typically, January and February are the two big months for yield determination for corn and soybean yields down there for sure,” he adds.

Soybean Exports Lagging
Despite more flash exports sales on Tuesday soybeans continued fall. USDA reported daily flash sales of 5.0 million of soybeans to China and 8.5 million bu. to unknown destinations for the 2025-26 marketing year on Tuesday morning. However, soybean exports are still lagging compared to a year ago. “As we head toward this coming USDA report the agency could lower yields but will probably lower exports a little bit here for soybeans and raise domestic crush,” he says.
Currently, he says soybean exports are down 94 million bushels verses USDA’s current projection. Nelson says Allendale project exports down only 30 to 40 million bu. in the January WASDE. He says it’s not because of China but because of other buyers with Brazil soybeans priced below the U.S.

Still, Nelson doesn’t think U.S. soybean prices have to fall much further. “However, on the quite positive side, we feel that these prices have moved quite a bit lower than economic value. And even with our ninety four million bushel cut to exports lately offset by lower yields and also raised domestic crush, we actually would argue like the higher prices are still due in these months ahead for soybeans as well. “

Corn Falls After Testing Resistance
Corn futures were also lower on Tuesday with soybeans and wheat and a higher dollar. However, Nelson says the market went up atnd tested the top side of the trading range on the charts and failed and is now retracing. “We had that attempt here in recent days at trying to break out of of prior highs. We’re not able to do it. We came within just within a nickel of those prior highs.”

Argentina Corn Crop Risk Fading
Nelson says the market may have a difficult time retesting those highs in the short term with the removal of risk with the improved Argentine weather. “It’s actually more important for corn than soybeans, considering the fact that, Brazil’s first crop of corn is relatively small. So I think we can argue that corn probably took the Argentine weather change a little worse than soybeans.”

Corn Yield Lower in WASDE
Nelson says they do find some reasons for higher prices starting with the January WASDE mainly due to a yield cut. “Yes, we’re looking at a yield cut. Maybe exports unchanged or maybe slightly higher on this specific report. So we do look like we do look for this general discussion on ending stocks to drop from roughly2 billion bu. will be down into the high 1.8 billion bu. or low 1.9 billion mark in a month or two,” he explains. That should push prices back to the $4.60 level for March and May.

Wheat Follows Corn and Soybeans Lower
Wheat futures were lower again Tuesday following corn and soybeans and with a higher U.S. dollar index. Nelson says the bearish market mentality is also coming from Russia’s higher wheat export forecast in coming months. He says, “Keep in mind here they were relatively weak exporter in recent months. So we do have that looming bearish issue.”

Plus he says there is a lot of focus on the feed value of wheat in relationship to corn. “As it stands right now, it’s going to take probably higher corn prices to justify a higher wheat prices.”

The wheat market is also numb to the Black Sea tensions. “Whether we have a war the market is still getting Russia and Ukraine exports, and with no war. The market’s still getting, Russia, Ukraine exports,” he adds. This comes even as Russia stepped up attacks on the Odesa port complex.

Live Cattle Futures Stuck, Feeders Breaking Out?
Live and feeder cattle futures were both higher on Tuesday. Still, the live cattle have been unable to take out key resistance on the charts while Nelson says March feeder cattle futures filled the gap area. As a result he thinks the market will stay sideways.

His concern regarding live cattle futures is the drop in wholesale beef prices again last week against the back drop of slightly higher cash prices and negative packer margins. “So far,we do have adequate supplies. Keep in mind here right now, weights finishing weights are running about 3% over last year. This comes on top of the fact that slaughter levels are only down 2% to 4% versus last year, so actual beef production has really not been hit in recent weeks specifically.”

Cash Cattle Trend This Week?
Cash trade averaged $229.33 last week, up $1.36, but on very light volume. Will that trend continue as packers buy for a full kill week next week? Nelson says he’s expecting a mixed trade and packers aren’t likely to be too aggressive. “Maybe light support here for the South. Maybe, lightly negative for the North,” he says.

Lean Hogs Rally Despite Drop in Cash and Cutouts
Lean hog futures were higher Tuesday despite a sharp drop of $1.40 in the lean hog index and lower cutout values. Nelson says it was an impressive move considering the expansion indicated in the Hogs and Pigs Report. “Slaughter rates for the month of December overall, they are holding USDA’s view of a revision for higher supply. So the bear argument has some legs right now.” Yet, futures had the second best close of the uptrend, which Nelson says is positive.

Cattle End Higher, What Breaks The Sideways Trade? Grains and Hogs Ease Friday

Sat, 27 Dec 2025 17:36:41 GMT

Cattle futures ended mostly higher on Friday, with hogs and grains easing.

Cattle Futures Higher Friday, But Sideways
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher Friday after a couple of days of profit taking. However, Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures board has remained sideways since around Dec. 11. Live cattle futures corrected over $25 off the lows in November with feeder cattle recovering over $50 but have stalled out unable to get above resistance areas on the charts.

“We’ve had such a big rally here and we got to market extremely overbought and to have a correction just go sideways and take us out of that overbought status. That’s a really good indication of a strong bull market that we’re not quite dead yet. And we’ll have to take a look to see what next week really brings. But to have a market have such a strong rally like that and only give back just a little bit is it’s an extremely good position for the bulls,” he explains.

What Will it Take For Cattle Future to Break Out?
Market participants have been worn out with the volatility of the cattle futures and Kooima says the sideways pattern is unusual. However, its a result of the volume eroding. “We have smaller kind of daily ranges with lower volume. It’s just like, what what is going on here?”

Kooima says to get above these current resistance areas on the charts the market will need to see higher cash trade. Cash trade was quiet Christmas week and volume has been light the last two weeks. Cash trade by Wednesday was mostly $229 to $230 in the North, dressed prices were mostly #56 to $357. Southern business was light at $229.
“It was kind of some steady to a $1 better, kind of a good undertone to it. So call it a steady, marketplace,” he says.

Boxed Beef and Demand
Boxed beef values were a bit disappointing during the holiday season as they were not able to put in their normal seasonal rally. So does that mean consumer demand is slipping? Kooima says with the small volume of the boxed beef market that is actually negotiated it is hard to pinpoint the real market trend. “Yeah, we’d like to see the boxes catch here, a little bit to kind of bring some of these demand bulls back in the marketplace. But I don’t hear anything that indicates we’re slipping to much,” he says.

Beef Imports Capping Values
He says some of what is capping the beef values is increased imports from areas including Mexico, both fresh and frozen. “It’s bigger than what it was last year and that makes total sense when you look at the whole border situation, that being closed almost a year now.” Import volume will also pick up after the first of 2026 as the tariff rate quotas reset for Argentina and especially Brazil. “So I guess Trump is going to get his way a little bit as far as getting boxes to go down a little bit.”

Lean Hogs Down a Second Session
Lean hog futures were down for a second session still digesting the USDA’s Quarter Hogs and Pigs Report which did show some bearish categories compared to expectations. Kooima says, “The first hour of trade the morning after that report was released, was bearish,” he says.

However, the market recovered off the lows which to him was impressive. “It’s kind of more of a true testament of, okay, do we really believe some of those numbers or not? Or are we going back to what we’re all hearing from producers regarding how bad the disease is. It’s really hard to find anybody that’s got a good clean barn necessarily. So two years in a row now where we’re hearing some catastrophic death losses out there. And I think that’s that’s the main part of the reason why we have seen this rally and had it sustained so well is on the backbone of that disease issue.”

Rally in Hogs in 2026?
So could lean hogs be set up for a rally in 2026? Kooima thinks so. “I think if we look past like June, July and August, I think those markets could be a little bit more sustainable with their rally, just with all the disease issues going on.”
However, he thinks the market will need to get through a little uptick in production in the next few weeks. “We had a little snippet there where five or six weeks, our production was kicking really, really good, and that’s going to land here in the next well after we get into the new year next week in January and February,” he adds. After that he sees some holes in production.

However, there are some prices that present a hedge opportunity for producers. ‘This Feb April stuff, they’re great prices to have April close to $90, $89 or so. A guy’s gonna have to take a look at that into next week and see if there’s some floors you want to put on. Maybe something down at $85 level just for like a simple put option.”

Grains Ease Friday
After a Santa Claus rally on Wednesday the grain markets eased back a bit on Friday under light volume. Kooima says futures got up into some chart resistance. “For particularly for corn I think you look at that chart, it’s in a range and we just kind of went back to the top end of that range. I don’t know if we have enough news, especially on a Friday here the day after Christmas to really push that market up and through.” He also thinks there was a pick up in farmer selling as March corn got above December’s highs of $4.52.

Soybeans Correct Oversold Condition
Kooima says the rally in soybeans early in the week was the market correcting its oversold condition which had lasted for nearly two weeks. However, he’s hopeful soybeans have bottomed. “You know, at least you can start drawing some uptrends.” He says if the market participants come back and get some China news or the funds are done liquidating the market could see some recovery. The big key will be what happens with South American weather.

Grains Still Have Higher Weekly Closes
Despite the lower day Friday all of the grain markets had higher weekly closes. Can the market build on that? Kooima says, “I think if it does happen, it’s Monday. Tuesday when you’re going to want to see it happen. You’re going to have a little bit more volume Monday and Tuesday, and then kind of back to some of that holiday trade Wednesday. And then, you know, no trade on Thursday into Friday. So I guess I would like to see it more at the beginning of the week, just get herself a little bit further away from the lows, especially in the beans,” he says. At the same time he thinks not just corn but all of the grains could settle into a trading range until the January WASDE.

Cattle Futures Pop Despite Weak Cash: Grains Slide

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 16:01:05 GMT

Cattle futures are higher early Friday, with hogs lower. Grains are quietly mixed.

Cattle Futures Higher Despite Lower Cash
Cattle futures are higher early Friday after seeing some profit taking the last couple of days unable to take out chart resistance, which in live cattle coincides with the 100-day moving average. As a result the market is trading more sideways says Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek. However, futures are higher despite lower Northern cash trade on Thursday.

Lower Cash Cattle
Fed cash trade developed at $228 live, which is down $2 from last week but on limited volume says Varilek. The dressed prices were mostly $358, which is up $4 but that is equivalent to $225.50 on a live sale basis. He says the drop in the cash market is not unexpected considering packers were buying for a short holiday week. And that may be the case again next week.

Boxed Beef Not Rallying
Boxed beef values are still subdued which is a disappointment since they normally see a seasonal rally around the holidays. The Choice values are still under $360 at $357.28. Varilek thinks the poor performance is somewhat politically motivated. “Packers have been unwilling to push the beef values higher because of the target on their back regarding their role in higher beef prices,” he explains. He doesn’t think it is tied to poor consumer demand.

Cattle on Feed Positioning
The market has also been positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report due out at 2 pm on Friday. Early estimates put the on feed totals at 98.4% of a year ago and placements at 92%, which if confirmed would be bullish. Varilek says it just backs up the tight herd numbers. However, he thinks there is some slight heifer retention that is starting to take place.

Lean Hogs See Profit Taking
Lean hog futures were lower early Friday on pre-weekend profit taking and some spread action with cattle. However, the market is still in a short term uptrend which has attracted fund buying and that should continue. Disease problems are also growing in major production areas which should be supportive as well as the seasonal bottoming of the cash market.

Are Soybeans Done Going Down?
Soybeans are narrowly mixed early Friday after another week where futures lost over 25 cents. Varilek says the market is now trading below the price levels it was at before the China trade truce and purchase framework was announced. “We filled the chart gap areas and then closed below those levels which is bearish,” he points out. China bought another 4. 9 million bu. of soybeans Friday morning, but he thinks the soybean market has failed to respond to these sales because it’s not enough to hit USDA’s export target. Plus, Brazil and Argentina have been receiving good rains this week and so there is no problem with the South American crop.

Corn Hits Resistance
Corn has been resilient with the selloff in soybeans and tried to rally this week after holding the 100-day moving average. However, it failed at resistance on the charts at the 200-day moving average. Varilek thinks that keeps corn range bound through the end of the year or until the January WASDE.

Where's The Beef? U.S. Beef Left Out of China Trade Framework

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 19:11:49 GMT

Most of the hype surrounding the U.S. China framework has been about China buying soybeans and even other U.S. ag products like sorghum. But one commodity was left out of the talks: beef. So, how did that even happen?

Until 2025, China was a bright spot for the U.S. beef export market with rising sales. However, that stopped this year and has drug down total beef exports year to date. According to Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) president and CEO, U.S. beef exports are down about 10% on volume and 8% on value through August.

He says it’s not just a result of tariffs. The biggest issue is the lack of access for U.S. beef plants in China. He reports 400-plus beef establishments were not relisted back in April.

“It’s not demand-related. Demand is booming, especially the high-end, you know, Sams Club, places that are ready to reintroduce U.S. beef when we get the plants relisted,” Halstrom explains.

According to the Meat Institute, in 2024, China was the U.S.’s third largest market, by value, for beef, at more than $1.5 billion.

“The strong beef exports to China were thanks to President Trump’s leadership in securing the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement during his first term,” the Meat Institute reported in a nine-page document — The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets. “However, since the beginning of 2025 — and in contravention of the terms of the Phase One Agreement — China has failed to renew the registrations for more than 415 U.S. beef establishments, making them ineligible to export to China. This is a massive market loss for the U.S. that Brazil and other countries have been eager to fill.”

Ethan Lane, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) senior vice president of government affairs, says NCBA is frustrated beef was not part of the China framework and unsure why it was left out of the discussions.

“We don’t have a good answer to that,” he says. “You know, we were told that was top of the list and that negotiators knew how important that was. What we heard back was that they got some stuff done on soybeans and some other things and that this is a commitment to renegotiate this deal every year moving forward.”

Halstrom says he hopes relisting U.S. beef plants is part of future negotiations.

“We’ve had quite a few plants also delisted for non-tariff trade violations, residues around MGA in particular,” he explains. “So, you’ve got quite a few plants that have actually been delisted twice. There’s some paperwork to be worked through there. But if the Chinese side wanted to get these plants relisted, it’s relatively easy to do. It’s just they have to be instructed to do it.”

Still, Lane says they’ve asked the administration to make it a priority because it’s a problem for producers, packers and the supply chain.

“That’s what we need here is for that negotiation to result in us resuming our access to that market. That was like 13% to 14% of our market and is definitely something producers feel on that carcass,” Lane explains.

So, they’ll keep pushing because China is a key growth area for U.S. beef.

Your Next Reads:
Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen

Sharp Drop in Beef and Pork Exports to China Causes April Meat Exports to Take a Hit

Can Cattle Continue to Rally and Retest the Highs? Soybeans Break $11

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 16:20:25 GMT

Grain and livestock futures are mixed early Monday.

Cattle Futures Hit Retracement Levels
Live and feeder cattle futures opened mostly lower but nearby live cattle quickly pushed back higher. Brad Kooima says both futures markets are struggling as they are up into 50% retracement levels as January feeder cattle were up over $15 last week and February live cattle were $9.30 higher. He says $340 is the 50% retracement on January feeders is also where the gap area starts and coincides with the 100 and 20-day moving averages.

Can Cattle Futures Retest the Highs?
Kooima says if the markets can close above those resistance areas on the charts he is optimistic about new highs. “So we’ll see we get on top of $340 for real then I think we make a run at the highs, frankly. Maybe we fill those gap areas and then we’ll see what we’re really made of. I would not rule out the possibility of the first quarter going to new highs. I’ve said there before on your program. So we’ll see. I feel much better about the market this week than I did last. And some of that’s because of some of the fundamental stuff that’s happened,” he adds.

Cash Trade Sharply Higher Last Week
Part of the rally last week was sponsored by sharply higher cash trade for both feeders and fed cattle. He says. “The feeder cattle have been largely influenced by what has been a strong cash feeder market. The auction market for
feeder cattle has been incredibly strong and that has led us many times.”

Fed cash cattle started at $215 to $220 on Wednesday in the North but by Friday traded $222 to $224, with a few up to $225 live. The volume at $220 is up over $10 on the week versus the weighted average in Nebraska. Dressed prices ranged from $340 to $345, up $11 to $16. The South traded light volume at mostly $225 to $226, up $7 to $8.

“You know cash is king. Through this tight supply of cattle and it’s been, of course, even tighter in the south than it is here in the North. The volume of negotiated trade down there has, you know, been absolutely abysmal,” he says.

Weather a Factor
The higher cash did help clean up some of the heavy weight cattle in the North and Kooima says the record weights should also start coming down with the cold, winter weather in a good chunk of cattle feeding areas.

Boxed Beef Needs to Catch
However, he says to keep the rally going the boxed beef market needs to start moving higher as Choice boxed beef is trading at $361.20. “Yeah, and I’ve been a little disappointed there. They’re taking their sweet time about it. Now, this is kind of the seasonal week, the first four weeks of December, especially after COVID, we’ve really seen a significant seasonality that way. So we’ll see,” he says.

Is All the Bearish News Priced Into the Cattle Market?
Kooima says the one bearish factor that is still lurking is when does the USDA open the market to feeder cattle imports from Mexico. He says cold weather will help keep the New World Screwworm movement curbed and there are ample treatments to prevent and control (NWS). “Let’s get that announcement out of the way so we can get on down the road. Numbers are still going to be tight for a long time,” he adds.

Lean Hogs Bottoming
Lean hog futures ended higher for the week and cutouts were up over $3 coming into the session and the cash index is rising slowly. So, Koomia thinks the market has bottomed. “I like the way they act. We took out the last week’s high. We’re a little overbought here, but that’s the nature of hogs. They go straight up and straight down. So I don’t know if I’d stand in the way of that. The weights are a little big, starting to come down a little bit. Usually wintertime takes care of that here in this part of the world, even though they’re all in a confinement. It still does make a difference when it gets cold. The market may be here pausing a little bit at the 100 -day moving average, but I don’t know. I think summer hogs ought to be worth someplace over $100 at least, so we should get a little more follow -through there.”

Soybeans Fall Below $11
January soybeans fell below $11 overnight on continued uncertainty regarding China’s purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week the purchase agreement would run through February 28 and so that is muddying the water.

” Not good technical action there Thursday and then the follow through Friday and today has me wondering whether, you know, you talked about Jan beans. I hope I’m wrong. But, you know, do we have to go all the way back to $10.20 where we had that big breakout point when the news did turn, perhaps. I still think that the beans have a bit of a story. You know, the overall ending stocks here is not a big number. And, you know, who is China going to buy beans from?”

Corn Range Bound
Corn is holding up despite the selloff in soybeans and Kooima says corn is range bound but need soybeans to stop falling. “If soybeans keep going down, though. It’s going to be tricky. And then, you know, throw wheat into the equation, I mean, the very low value of that.”

Cattle Futures Soar on Sharply Higher Cash but Can They Keep Rallying? Grains Drift

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 15:56:49 GMT

Cattle and hog futures are higher early Friday, with grains quietly mixed.

Cattle Futures Soar With Sharply Higher Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher Thursday and are seeing continued buying Friday morning pushed by sharply higher cash trade in the North. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says Thursday saw the volume of live sale prices at $220, up $10 from last week but even some $222 developed in Iowa. Dressed deals had a range of $340 to $345, $11 to $16 higher than the prior week’s weighted averages, The South remained at a standstill.

“So that felt great. We’ve got guys cleaning up a lot of cattle at $220. And then after the close, we were yesterday, we were even able to get some $222 sales that happened. And it had a good feeling because you had some regionals. You had some majors out there. But when you have those certain two majors pushing up here in the North, you can get a lot of traction. So Cash news, lead story feels good. That’s what’s really pushing us higher here,” he says.

Cash Feeders Lead with Record Prices
Varilek says the cash feeder market helped lead the higher fed cash trade with some record prices paid at livestock auction barns including Bassett, Neb. “I mean, that was thefirst sign, okay, a lot of big corporates got out in the yards and you’re thinking, okay, we’re moving higher fast, starting to hear some prices that are dropping my jaw again. And that just continued through the week with cash feeders just going higher, moving higher. And, yeah, Bassett sets the record for the highest price, six weights ever sold going over the $5 mark.” He says its a testament to how tight supply is. And we have heard a lot about fear

He says breakevens are from $240 to $260 which makes him a bit nervous, especially with the heavy weights but he says producers are able to make some money and they are anxious to refill yards. “And feeders are the leaders. That’s the story that got us to these record highs in the first place. And that’s what’s leading us back again.”

The headline of another case of New World Screwworm 120 miles from the Mexican border also helped to support the rally although Varilek says its not producing the limit up moves like it was before. However, the ideas is that most of the bearish news has already been factored into the market.

How High Can Prices Go?
Live and feeder cattle futures have had a great week and have moved past the 38% retracement levels but are now eyeing 50% retracements and key moving averages as resistance areas that need to be taken out to keep the rally going. Plus, will the market go up and fill the chart gap areas that were left when the market tumbled? “Yeah, those gaps, that bloody trail that we left. I mean, those were feeling like they are a long ways away. And now suddenly we’re getting in range here. So we’re looking at a, you know, just over $230 for a Feb gap that one of the gaps that it has there. Is it guaranteed to go fill them? Yeah, absolutely not. You never know. But I think the more confidence we get and we keep grinding us higher, those are now possible to do just that,” Varilek adds.

Where Are Packer Margins?
Varilek says feeders have regained their leverage in the cash market which is the good news but with $220 cash trade what does that do to packer margins? Packers had been running back in the black with the correction in the cash market recently. Varilek says, “That’s good question. I think we’re going to have to kind of dial that in because we had retailers making money. We had packers making money. We had producers making money. It felt really good that all sectors were doing okay at this level. I mean, all we heard about in the last couple months was beef’s too high and need to get beef down. That’s frustrating for us beef producers, you know, look at the price of everything else,” he says.

Hogs Rally in Bottoming Action
Lean hog futures have been higher this week on short covering and with spillover from the rally in cattle. The lean hog index has also been moving back higher which is supportive and that may be providing proof of a seasonal low. Varilek says there are some other factors at work too. “I think actually hogs themselves have, you know, a decent story. I mean, we had its grinding downtrend. We finally were able to stop that train lower. and now in and when you start throwing the disease into the hog market, that that’s a friendly story. So I think that’s probably one of my major factors is,” he says. yep, we

Corn and Soybeans Sideways Even With China Business
Corn and soybeans are quietly mixed on Friday as both margins are range bound. Soybeans seem to be fading the 17 million bu. flash sale of soybeans to China but that is because its been talked about all week and the market is still disappointed with Secretary Bessent’s comments about the 12 MMT buys being done through the end of February, not December. “I feel like when I want to talk about the grains, I’m just kind of rehashing the same stories that we’ve talked about. So just trying to look past. What story is there that’s going to break it out of a top side or a bottom side? And I feel like we’ve got firm floors in for the year. We’ve kind of got through that. So the hopes is for upside. We’re getting some of this, you know, China business. We’re seeing it show up that the market had to do that. We know we’ve got a tight
Right now, rains maybe just a little bit disappointing down there. We know it’s always going to be too dry somewhere or too wet somewhere. There’s going to be a problem and it’s going to make the market news. So that’s what it’s going to take to try to break anything out of the top side.”

However, he admits the South American weather story won’t get real market attention until January. “Yeah, it’s too early but in a market that this boring, We’re looking for something.”

Cattle Fail Monday So What Will Confirm a Low? Grains See Profit Taking

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 16:02:11 GMT

Cattle start lower Monday, with hogs 2-sided. Grains are mostly lower.

Cattle Lower But is a Bottom In?
Live and feeder cattle futures started lower on Monday and are seeing a lack of follow through buying after closing higher on Friday and posting higher weekly closes last week. It was impressive that futures were able to recover and close higher after starting with limit down moves on Monday in response to Tyson closing their Lexington, Neb. plant. So is the market in the process of bottoming? Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says he would be more confident about the lows holding if three factors would turn positive.

Weights Need to Get Current
One of those factors is feedlots need to get current. Weights last week were once again at record levels with USDA reporting carcass weights at 893 pounds, which is up 27 pounds over a year ago and 54 pounds over two years ago.
Kooima says this is the time of year weights are normally heavier but with the cash prices slipping there has been a trend of more feedlots feeding cattle longer to make up the difference. That is giving leverage back to the packers.

Boxed Beef Values Need to Catch
Kooima says boxed beef values also need to stabilize and start moving higher. Although the market is only a couple of days past Thanksgiving he thinks the ribs and middle meat need to start to rally to pull up the beef values.

Clarity on Reopening the Border
There also needs to be more clarity on the reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle. While USDA Secretary Rollins says last week the reopening would be staggered and start with Arizona there is still no definite date for resuming imports. Until that happens there is enough uncertainty that funds don’t want to reestablish long positions in the futures.

How Much Recovery Can be Expected in Cattle?
Kooima says if the lows can hold it doesn’t mean a huge recovery in the market. Technically cattle futures would need to rally significantly just to close back above key resistance areas on the charts where the break lower began. He points to $227.40 on the February live cattle as one of those key target areas. The bulls will need a close above this point to bring fund trader back in on the long side with any confidence.

Cash Trade Improved in the South Late in the Week
Cash trade started off the week sharply lower with dressed prices in Nebraska at $330, down $13 from the prior week’s weighted average, basis Nebraska. However, business in Kansas and Texas was done mostly on Friday. Southern live deals were started the week at $215 but by the end of the week had improved by $5 at mostly $220. However, that was $2 to $4 lower than the prior week’s weighted averages.

Lean Hogs Two-Sided
Lean hog futures started slightly higher but failed shortly after the opening in tandem with the cattle futures. After last week’s higher weekly closes it looked like the hog futures were starting to form a bottom but will need some follow through buying early this week to confirm that. African Swine Fever was reported in Spain and has large customers like China and Mexico banning imports but Kooima says Spain is not a major exporter so it won’t have much market impact.

Grains See Profit Taking with No China Buys
Corn and soybeans were higher last week but are seeing some profit taking and corrective selling after failing at chart resistance. Plus, there were no additional sales announcements of China soybean purchases this morning which may be leaving the bulls disappointed. “The bulls need to be fed every day,” adds Kooima. However, he thinks with China’s large pork herd they will need to buy additional product from the U.S. and so he is longer term friendly to the soybean market.