Cattle Market Reports and Analysis

Beyond the Spread: Is it Time to Update the USDA Beef Grading Matrix?

Fri, 15 May 2026 17:29:38 GMT

For decades, the Choice-Select spread was the “North Star” for beef demand. But with the U.S. cattle herd at a 70-year low and Select supplies shrinking to just 10% of graded carcasses, Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, says it’s time to stop reading the old signals and start looking at what the modern consumer actually wants.

The recent inversion in the Choice-Select spread is sparking worry that consumers are “trading down” to cheaper, lower-quality beef. Close says in a recent Terrain Outlook the industry needs to quit overreacting to the old Choice-Select signal and start tracking more relevant indicators. For decades, the Choice-Select spread has been treated as a key gauge of beef demand and consumer preferences. An inverted spread — when Select trades higher than Choice — typically raised a red flag that buyers were shifting toward cheaper product. That narrative, he argues, simply doesn’t fit the current structure of the beef supply.

A Different Market Than the 1990s

Close says the conditions that once made the spread meaningful have changed dramatically.

“In previous years, an inverted spread mattered,” he explains. “But the grading percentage then was about 60% Choice or better and about 40% Select. And the majority of retail grocery chains carried Select product. There were also no branded beef programs, and the percentage of carcasses grading Prime ranged from 2% to 4%.”

Today, the entire grading and merchandising picture looks different.

“Now, retail stores predominantly carry Choice or better product,” Close notes. “It is also common for the percentage of Prime carcasses to be 10% to 15% and for there to be more Prime than Selects in the marketplace.”

In that kind of environment — where Select is a much smaller slice of total production and retailers lean heavily on branded and premium offerings — the old read on the spread doesn’t hold.

“In the current market environment, the spread is a meaningless measurement,” he stresses.

(Terrain)

Select is Scarce, Not Suddenly Popular

If consumers aren’t suddenly preferring Select, why has Select strengthened relative to Choice? Close points first to a structural decline in Select production.

“The main reason is that the supply of Select product has contracted, which can make it appear that there is an increase in demand,” he says. “The supply went from 50% of graded beef carcasses in the 1990s and early 2000s to about 10% currently. As with any commodity product as supply contracts, the price is going to increase.”

That supply-side squeeze is occurring alongside the smallest domestic cattle supply in 70 years. At the same time, tight lean supplies and growing use of blended products are pulling on every available pound of lean beef.

“Even with the escalation in lean beef trimmings because of imports, the supply of lean beef is exceptionally tight,” Close explains. “Processors are searching for any source of lean beef to increase supplies of lean grinding materials.”

He adds Select also still has a defined role in a couple of key channels.

“There is also demand for Select products in institutional use, primarily hospitals,” Close notes. “Select products are also still used in many prepared frozen foods.”

Combine smaller Select production, a historically tight cattle herd and ongoing demand in institutional and processed channels, and Select’s price strength looks more like a scarcity story than a consumer “trade down” signal.

Will This Inversion Last?

Close does not expect today’s situation to be permanent — but he also doesn’t see the inverted spread as a near-term threat.

“Is this going to be a long-term scenario? I certainly don’t think so. Is the inversion of the spread going to disrupt the current market again? I don’t think that’s the case,” he says.

Instead, he points producers to the economics of feeding cattle.

“When the day comes that grain prices escalate and the cost of gain exceeds the value of gain, the market may have to take another look,” Close says. “In that case, the economics would discourage cattle feeders from fattening cattle as much, leading to more Select beef, a lower Select price and a higher Choice price.”

For now, the numbers still favor feeding cattle to higher grades.

“Currently, with cost of gain running around $1 a pound and the value of gain approaching 250, the inversion of the spread will not be a market factor anytime soon,” he summarizes.

(Terrain)

Branded Beef and Prime Demand Call for a New Grading Matrix

Rather than obsess over the Choice-Select spread, Close believes the industry should focus on measures that reflect where beef demand has actually moved.

“A better measurement would be a Choice-branded beef cutout, or a Choice-Prime spread,” he suggests.

That shift would also require updating the grading framework itself.

“The last time USDA beef grading matrix was updated or changed was in 1997,” he explains. “At that time, there were no branded beef products. In my opinion, the grading matrix needs to be updated to incorporate all beef in the upper one-third of Choice and better.”

For Close, the consumer verdict is already in.

“Consumers have proven their demand for ultra-high-quality beef,” he says, pointing to the success of Certified Angus Beef and the expansion of Prime offerings at retail. “Now, protein diets have become the craze. The American consumer is not going to go back to eating a largely Select-based product.”

For producers and market watchers, the message is clear: don’t let an inverted Choice-Select spread distract from the bigger, long-term shift toward higher-quality beef and more relevant pricing signals.

Nalivka: Beef Markets and Record-High Prices Going Forward

Fri, 15 May 2026 13:06:37 GMT

As Memorial Day weekend approaches, there is the question of market highs as we head toward the grilling season. I think it is worthwhile to look back at a year ago this time.

During the first week of May 2025, the Choice Cutout averaged $345/cwt., the Select Cutout $332/cwt. and the Comprehensive Cutout $342/cwt. Those prices peaked at $414/cwt. (+20%), $387/cwt. (+17%) and $409/cwt. (+20%), respectively.

This year during the week of May 9, the Choice Cutout averaged $390/cwt., the Select Cutout $388/cwt. and the Comprehensive Cutout $391/cwt. This year’s prices are 13%, 17% and 14% higher for each of the respective cutout values than a year ago.

Cutout Category	May 2025 Avg	May 2026 Avg	% Change
Choice	$345	$390	+13%
Select	$332	$388	+17%
Comprehensive	$342	$391	+14%

Is there a limit to how much current beef demand can drive those prices? My response is, “yes” and we are not too far from that limit.

The Government Question: Let Markets Be Markets

Record-high beef prices are the topic of discussion in cattlemen’s meetings, among market analysts, restaurant procurement, government, and state and federal legislatures with the discussion ranging from “Can prices go much higher” to the government assessing how to “Reduce prices for the consumer.”

My reaction when the government enters the discussion is that we do not need any government entity whether the administration, USDA or Congress to get involved. Markets operate best according to nonmanipulated supply-demand fundamentals, those very drivers that got us to the point of record prices in the first place. Manipulating the market toward the goal of lowering prices for the consumer is not an option, whether it be trade-related or any other manipulation.

(Sterling Marketing Inc.)

For the last 12 months, we have discussed and discussed when rebuilding of the cattle herd will begin. The consensus from all this expert analysis and discussion is that rebuilding will be slow. Why? My response is that the industry and the people involved have changed from those of past cattle cycles.

Farmers and ranchers are older and many no longer have family members who have come back to the ranch after graduating from high school or college. This is a critical factor for those existing full-time cattle ranching operations. These full-time cattlemen whose family members did not come back to the ranch are growing older and slowing down.

But the real driver to cattle numbers is the part-time cattleman — those who also have a cropping operation with pasture to raise a few cattle or people who don’t farm or ranch full time but have pasture, work at another job and want a few (25 to 50 head) cattle.

I believe these part-time cattlemen have declined significantly.

(Sterling Marketing Inc.)

Opportunity Cost: The Barrier to Heifer Retention

Aside from changing demographics of cattlemen, there is another critical issue to herd building and one which has been a driver in previous cattle cycles — record-high prices. While today’s prices are certainly a godsend to full-time cattlemen already in the business, those same record-high prices make the proposition of buying cows to get into the business a challenge, to say the least. And, for that matter, record-high prices can also be viewed as a record-high opportunity cost when a heifer is retained.

(Sterling Marketing Inc.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Losses Deepen as Feedlot Profits Hold Steady

Wed, 13 May 2026 16:16:27 GMT

The impact of higher Choice steer prices against only minor upper movement in the Comprehensive Beef cutout definitely made an impact on beef industry margins last week.

Sterling’s estimate of beef packer margins averaged -$246.42/head against -$123.35/head the prior week while feedlot margins averaged $186.70/head and down only about $7/head from the prior week as estimated break-evens were about $.50/cwt higher with a $2/cwt higher feeder cattle cost.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending May 9.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packers and Feeders See Sharp Gains as Market Surges

Wed, 06 May 2026 14:31:28 GMT

Beef packers fared much better last week in the face a higher Beef Cutout which was up $3/cwt. from the prior week, and a lower cost of cattle paid two weeks prior for slaughter last week. The 5-Area Direct Choice steer price 2 weeks prior for slaughter last week averaged $246.19/cwt. and advanced to $255.13/cwt. last week.

Sterling Packer Margins averaged -$123.15/head against -$188.23/head the previous week. Another contributing factor was the sharply higher drop credit averaging $219.43/head and the highest since the week of Nov. 19, 2022.

Feedlot margins also improved sharply last week averaging $193.33/head compared to -$2.50/head a week earlier.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending May 2.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Losses Deepen as Feedlot Margins Turn Negative

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:47:50 GMT

Beef packers continued to face negative margins last week with the situation unchanged due to current market fundamentals. Margin erosion was further compounded by unused capacity. Sterling’s packer margins averaged -$188.10/head for the week compared to -$170.50/head the prior week with Sterling’s estimate of capacity utilization at 77.5% for fed cattle plants and 60% for cow plants.

Feedlots were also dealt a blow last week as Sterling estimated feeding margin fell to -$2.50.head from $118.64/head the prior week as the week’s average for 5-Area Direct Steers fell $2/cwt to average $246.19/cwt.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending April 25.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Drought Stalls Expansion: 75% of U.S. Beef Cows in Dry Conditions

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 16:18:29 GMT

The formula for herd expansion may be simple — “grass plus profitability equals more cattle” — but the reality on the ground is anything but. CattleFax analyst Holden Ramey says nearly three‑quarters of the U.S. beef cow herd is currently in drought, sharply limiting the industry’s ability to rebuild numbers.

While profitability signals are strong, he says, dry pastures, high interest rates, costly inputs and market volatility are forcing many ranchers to delay or scale back heifer retention.

“We’re seeing some retention on a limited basis,” Ramey notes, “but it’s a slow, cautious rebuild, not a full‑throttle expansion.”

Ramey shared an outlook on the U.S. beef cattle cycle, herd dynamics, feed and grain markets, drought impacts, trade, demand and price expectations across the cattle and beef complex during the “Breakthrough Symposium: New World Screwworm Preparedness” on Friday in San Antonio, Texas.

His core message: supplies will stay historically tight, demand is exceptionally strong, expansion will be slow and cautious, and effective risk management is critical.

Here are seven key takeaways from Ramey’s presentation:

1. Slow, U‑Shaped Herd Rebuild – Tight Supplies for Years

Ramey predicts the beef cow herd is near its low for this cattle cycle, but the rebuild will be slow and cautious, not a sharp V‑recovery. Weather, high interest rates, input costs, aging producers and volatility are all dragging out expansion, even with strong prices.

He says calf and feeder supplies will stay tight, keeping markets in a higher trading range, even if the industry stops making new highs every year.

2. Drought Is the Biggest Brake on Expansion

About 75% of the U.S. beef cow herd is in drought, compared to a long‑term average near 20%. El Niño and a neutral pattern offer some relief ahead, but much of “cow country” is still in rough shape, limiting heifer retention and herd growth.

(CattleFax)

He predicts some producers who tried to hold heifers may be forced to “send them down the road” due to lack of feed.

3. Demand Is Exceptionally Strong Despite High Prices

He says since January 2020, the average price of ground beef has increased approximately 72% and retail beef is up approximately 61%, versus overall inflation up approximately 28%.

Ramey admits even with cheaper pork and poultry, there’s little evidence of major trade‑down away from beef — more trading down within beef (steaks to ground) than out of the category.

Higher grading — about 85% Choice and Prime, and approximately 20% Prime — plus the protein diet trends and GLP‑1‑driven nutrition advice have helped build durable beef demand.

4. Feed, Days on Feed and Carcass Weights Are Offsetting Fewer Head

Ramey says cheap corn supports longer feeding periods. On average, steers are averaging 190 to 200 days on feed. Simultaneously, average carcass weights increased 52 lb. in 2024 and 2025, which is equivalent to about 1.9 million head of added supply. Note: The long-term average of carcass weight increase historically has been 5 lb. per year.

(CattleFax)

He explains this means the rally is as much demand‑driven as supply‑driven — not the tightest tonnage ever, but prices are still very strong.

5. Trade Shifts: Mexico, Canada and Boxed Beef Flows

He says the screwworm ‑related closure of the Mexican border in 2025 slashed imports from approximately 1 million head to around 200,000, significantly tightening U.S. feeder supplies.

Even if the border reopens, Ramey does not expect a quick return to 1‑million‑head years due to health protocols and more feeding capacity in Mexico.

He also says exports are down and imports up, as tight U.S. supplies and high prices draw more product in and keep more domestic beef at home.

6. Leverage and Profitability Have Shifted Toward Producers

After the COVID/packing bottleneck era, the industry now has more slaughter capacity than cattle, so leverage has swung away from packers. Fed cattle’s share of the cutout has rebounded to around 59%, versus the low 40s during COVID.

He reports the total industry profitability is near $690 per head to be shared across sectors, with cow‑calf and stocker operators capturing a big share.

7. Price Outlook: High Plateau Now, Eventual Downside Later

For 2026, Ramey predicts fed steers will mostly be $240 to $250, potential spike to $250 to $255 in late spring/early summer, then softer into $230 to $235 in Q4.

Feeders and calves stay historically high but could see modest pullbacks later in the year, likely smaller than the average 12% seasonal break because supplies are so tight.

He says the CattleFax team expects slightly softer prices next year across cutout, fats, feeders and calves — but still elevated versus history.

Longer term, after this huge up‑cycle — up approximately 200% for calves — Ramey warns of roughly 25% downside risk across fed, feeder and calves sometime later in the 2020s or early 2030s, making risk management critical while times are good.

His message to producers was both optimistic and cautionary. Tight cattle numbers, exceptional beef demand and renewed leverage at the ranch and feedyard suggest that today’s strong prices are not a fleeting windfall, but part of a higher trading range that could persist for years.

At the same time, Ramey warns, drought, high costs, shifting trade flows and the inevitability of the next down‑cycle mean this phase of the market must be treated as an opportunity to shore up balance sheets, invest wisely and lock in margins where possible. The fundamentals may be on the cattle industry’s side, he stresses, but capturing the full benefit of this rare window will depend on how aggressively producers manage both production and price risk in the months ahead.

Beef Profit Tracker: Feeding Margins Rise to $118 Per Head as Packer Losses Deepen

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 14:26:06 GMT

The 5-Area Direct Steer Price last week was about unchanged from the prior week averaging $244.85/cwt. for the week. However, with the breakeven for finished cattle averaging $239.65/cwt. compared to $242.18/cwt. the prior week, feeding margins were notably improved with the Sterling average of $118.64/head for the week against $88.66/head a week earlier.

At the same time, break-evens for cattle placed on feed last week will reach $250/cwt. Sterling’s packer margin estimate for last week fell sharply to average -$170.95/head. The Composite Beef Cutout averaged $389.25/cwt. and just under the prior week’s average of $390.15/cwt.

Capacity utilization for cow plants remains a critical concern averaging around 57%.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending April 18.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Cattle on Feed: The Supply Squeeze Continues

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:20:51 GMT

The April USDA Cattle on Feed report confirms that the U.S. fed cattle supply remains historically tight, with March placements and marketings reaching their second-lowest levels since 1996. While the latest report landed almost exactly where analysts expected, Patrick Linnell of CattleFax says the underlying message hasn’t changed: fed cattle supplies are tight and likely to stay that way, as lower marketings, fewer Mexican feeder imports, drought timing and more heifers kept for breeding limit cattle available to place.

Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, was a guest on AgriTalk Friday afternoon with Michelle Rook .

Here are the key takeaways from the report:

On feed: 99.5% — Feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1. The inventory included 7.26 million steers and steer calves, down slightly from the previous year. This group accounted for 63% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, down 1% from 2025.
Placements: 96.7% — Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head. Net placements were 1.66 million head. Placements were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996.
Marketings: 94.5% — March marketings totaled 1.63 million head. Marketings were the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996.

(USDA)

One point Linnell emphasizes is the on-feed number didn’t drop as sharply year over year as some might assume in a tight-supply environment. He explains this apparent disconnect is largely a function of cattle staying on feed longer and yards remaining relatively full.

Despite that technical nuance in the on-feed totals, Linnell stresses the takeaway for producers and the trade is straightforward: “So overall, the message is simply that supplies remain tight and fed cattle numbers should remain pretty tight here for the foreseeable future.”

(USDA)

“Placements were off close to 7% to 8% from year ago, which was what we and other groups had predominantly expected with the marketings below year ago levels,” Linnell says.

Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky livestock agriculture economist, summarizes the report includes some sizeable decreases from last year on placements and marketings, but very much in line with pre-report estimates.

“The decrease in heifers on feed is worth noting,” Burdine points out. “While 37.3% is still relatively high and just above the 20-year average, the numbers are slowly trending downward. It’s actually the smallest heifer percentage since 2018, but that is a little bit deceiving because we have been below 38% several times since then. I think this year is setting up such that beef cow slaughter will be the inventory driver. It is down 18% year-to-date, from a very low number last year.”

(USDA-NASS, Cattle Market Notes Weekly)

Burdine, in the recent “ Cattle Market Notes Weekly ” article, explains, “The bigger story of 2026 may be less about heifer retention and more about beef cow slaughter. After culling the herd very hard from 2021 to 2023, beef cow slaughter was sharply lower in 2024 and 2025.”

Through the first 14 weeks of 2026, beef cow slaughter has been running almost 18% lower than the same time last year.

(USDA-NASS, Cattle Market Notes Weekly)

“If that trend held for the balance of the year, the 2026 beef cow culling rate would be about 7%, when the culling rate has averaged over 9.8% the last 20 years,” Burdine summarizes. “Weather conditions are likely to impact both heifer retention and cow culling as we move through current year, but the current pace of cow slaughter may be the largest inventory driver as we move towards 2027.”

Considering regional and state-level placements, Linnell highlights Texas as the focal point of the decline. He ties much of that weakness directly to the lack of Mexican feeder cattle coming across the border.

“As you look at the regional on-feed numbers, Texas still composes the bulk of the decline compared to either year ago or a five year average, off 10,000 from year ago or down 268,000 head from a five year average,” he explains. “I think that really just does reflect that continued lack of the Mexican feeder cattle supply.”

At the same time, the story is not limited to Texas. Linnell notes that most regions and states are showing declines relative to historical levels, which fits the broader cattle cycle.

“You’re noting those declines from a five year average in pretty much all regions and states as well, which is really no surprise when you think about where we’re at from a cycle standpoint,” he adds.

(USDA)

He adds the softer marketing number was no surprise either, given how tight supplies have been and how slaughter has lagged.

“There’s no surprise with combination of just tight, tight supplies and the fact that, you know, we’ve had slaughter running well below year ago. The decline in marketing’s was no surprise whatsoever, either,” he says.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, agrees with Linnell and Burdine summarizing there is nothing really earth-shaking in the report.

“Placements and marketings were both down about as expected,” he says. “On-feed total down 0.5% year over year, continuing the slow decline. Monthly cattle on feed have been down 17 consecutive months. Feedlot throughput (turnover rate) has slowed more than cattle on-feed levels indicate with placements in the past year year down 8% and marketings down 6.7%.”

Peel stresses heifers on feed, April 1 was 37.3%, down slightly from one year ago and about at the long-term average. The level is consistent with inventory and slaughter data, indicating very low and slow levels of heifer retention.

Placements Outlook: Drought, Border and Heifer Retention

Looking ahead, Linnell expects placements to continue trending below year-ago levels, even as drought and timing issues could pull some cattle off grass earlier.

“We’ll continue to see placements as a pattern that are running below year ago levels,” he says.

He acknowledges that drought could force some early movement.

“Yes, you probably do see some drought movement, some cattle coming early, but I think we’ve already seen that on a year to date basis, as well as you think about that February number that was above year ago for placements,” he explains.

Linnell also reminds AgriTalk listeners that last year’s partial border reopening to Mexican feeder cattle during March through May affects how current placements stack up in year-over-year comparisons.

Another structural factor tightening the pipeline is increased heifer retention. More heifers are being held back for breeding, which reduces the pool of animals available to send to feedyards.

“Even despite these dry conditions, it still appears to us that there is an increase in heifer retention,” he summarizes. “And so with that going on, that’s more animals that you’re taking to supply to place, right?”

Bottom Line: Tight Supplies For the Foreseeable Future

Across his comments, Linnell consistently came back to one central theme: the Cattle on Feed report confirms a tight-supply environment that won’t resolve quickly. Even if the headline on-feed number doesn’t fall as much as some might expect, the underlying drivers — lower placements, constrained feeder flows from Mexico, increased heifer retention and extended days on feed — all point in the same direction.

In his view, that means fed cattle numbers will remain limited going forward, and the industry should plan around a tighter supply backdrop.

“Overall, the message is simply that supplies remain tight and fed cattle numbers should remain pretty tight here for the foreseeable future,” he summarizes.

Listen to the entire conversation between Linnell and Rook.

Post-Strike Rebound: Feedlot Leverage Returns as Packer Margins Dip

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:16:41 GMT

Beef industry margins last week were back to where they were prior to the JBS strike at Greeley – positive for feedlots and negative for packers.

Sterling’s estimate for feedlot margins last week was $88.66/head while the estimated packer margin averaged -109.60/head for the week. These margins compare to $3.26/head for feedlots and $65.03/head for packers the previous week.

5-Area Direct Steer prices averaged $248.51/cwt. last week while the Composite Beef Cutout averaged $390.15 for the week. Packers processed cattle priced 2 weeks ago — $244.85/cwt.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending April 11.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Optimism Reigns at Joplin Stockyards as Cattle Prices Hit Historic Highs

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 14:10:23 GMT

Monday is sale day in Carthage, Mo. At the Joplin Stockyards, the air is filled with the rhythmic chant of auctioneers and the shuffling hooves. Among the crowd of buyers, part-owner Jackie Moore watches the ring with a smile, watching a market that is finally paying off for producers.

“Cattle are $100 higher than they were a year ago,” Moore says.

The higher prices and the resulting grins haven’t always been the case for the buyers and sellers sitting ringside at the Moore family’s business. Moore is an industry veteran, having started his career at the stockyards back in 1977, long before the operation moved to its current Carthage location.

“It’s been a long time since 1977,” he reflects.

Moore is grateful many cattlemen today are no longer focused on the years of struggle. Instead, they are seeing cash for their efforts.

“They’re in the driver’s seat now. They’re getting paid for what they’re doing. You know we see those people walk up to the window — you sold 20 head of calves, and they get a check for $50,000. He’s got three little kids at home, a trailer house and 80 acres of land. He’s the happiest guy in the world, and nobody would be happier for him than I am,” Moore says.

Moore is quick to point out the cattle industry is cyclical. While the current environment is prosperous, the question remains: When could the momentum shift? He believes the answer is tied closely to heifer sales and the eventual rebuilding of the national herd. Moore said buyers are purchasing more heifers to breed than they have historically.

“I think we’ve got a year and a half left of this really, really good market. Maybe then, as we see those heifers calve that they’re buying today, that we get enough cattle to satisfy the market,” Moore explains.

External factors are also playing a role in the current market dynamics. The suspension of live cattle imports along the Mexico border has tightened an already record-low cattle inventory. The border has remained closed since last July . While Moore believes a reopening could have an initial impact on the market, he doubts it will significantly alter long-term prices.

“We taught the cartel how to slaughter those cattle, how to feed those cattle, how to make money with those cattle. So consequently, you know, I don’t think there’s gonna be as big a need for them to export those cattle as there once was,” he says.

Midwest Market Solutions president Brian Hoops said there could be a headline risk for algorithm trades when the border opens, but he thinks, realistically, it might not have a large impact because of what has already been priced into the market. He agrees with Moore that processing has changed since the closure.

Moore notes the cattle environment in both Mexico and the U.S. is evolving, even without the steady flow of imports.

“Where this all leads us probably remains to be seen of how long the border is actually closed,” he adds.

Hoops says: “They’ve [Mexico] invested millions and maybe billions of dollars in an infrastructure because the border being closed. It’s kind of a double edged sword where we get a benefit of the border, being closed and having left less cattle here on feed and seeing higher prices, but it’s also forced Mexican producers to invest in infrastructure.”

Moore adds: “What happens down the road? I don’t know. I don’t really know. I’m very optimistic, and I’m bullish at the cattle market. All I know to do is just keep playing the game and enjoy the ride.”

Consumer Demand

On the consumer side, demand for beef continues to grow and is reaching record levels. Nebraska Farm Bureau reports an index created by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) to gauge beef demand reached 138 last year, the highest on record and a 10-point jump from 2024.

Director of LMIC Tyler Cozzens says a similar jump has only happened two other times in the last 25 years. He says since 2019, the index increased 27%.

“Prices are extremely high. You’re right about that,” Hoops says. “There’s still optimism that prices are going to continue to move higher because we’re going into the spring grilling season.”

Beef Profit Tracker: Feedlots and Packers Both in Black

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 10:49:56 GMT

Feedlot margins were back in the black last week averaging $3.36/head with a significant jump in the 5 Area Direct Steer price.

Steer prices averaged $244.85/cwt. for the week against $235.35/cwt. the previous week. At the same time, beef packer margins remained in positive territory with Sterling estimate for the weekly average at $67.03/head for the week.

While the Composite Beef Cutout was weaker last averaging $394.86/cwt. compared to $397.49/cwt. a week earlier, packers slaughtered cattle that were priced at the previous week’s lower cost.

Also, JBS’s Greeley, Colo., plant remained on strike last week. Fed cattle slaughter was up 8,000 head over the previous week and capacity utilization averaged 82%. That plant went back online this week with no agreement regarding the conditions of the strike.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending April 4.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Profit Margin Improves to $90/head

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 15:37:01 GMT

Reduced slaughter numbers coupled with continued strong consumer demand supporting a strong beef market last week resulted in Sterling’s estimated packer margin averaging $90.36/head with 80.1% capacity utilization.

Feedlots on the other hand, saw per head losses increase to an estimated - $106.58/head as calculated by Sterling Marketing. The 5-Area Choice Steer Price averaged $235.35/cwt. for the week and unchanged from the prior week. The strike at JBS’s Greeley, Colo., plant continues.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending March 28.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Cattle Market Volatility: Is the Ride Just Getting Started?

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 16:16:03 GMT

Placements of cattle into feedlots continue to decline and beef production has reached historic lows. More slaughter reductions, albeit temporary, are in the works.

“Feeder and live cattle markets will likely return to rally mode in Q2 and Q3 while calf prices remain mostly rangebound,” predicts Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, in his Q2 2026 Outlook .

He summarizes beef and cattle prices have been trading at record levels.

“Choice boxed beef is up 15% this year through March versus the same period last year, and cattle prices are up 18% to 40%, depending on class,” he says. “The reductions in available slaughter capacity so far this year have shifted leverage to the packing segment and improved its margins. However, if the Iran War’s effect on consumer gas budgets persists, it could challenge beef spending.”

He reports packer margins have improved from deeply negative to breakeven or slight profits. Cattle feeding losses could turn into breakeven or profits in Q2.

Weaber summarizes the bumpy ride of cattle market volatility is just getting started. Weaber suggests producers consider these four strategies:

1. Plan Around Volatility, Not Just High Prices

Even though prices are at record highs, Weaber expects continued volatility and notes projected losses for many feeders in Q2 and Q3.

He suggests producers use conservative price assumptions in budgets; run stress tests on breakevens at lower fed and feeder prices. He encourages feeders to lock in margins when they’re available — hedging, LRP, options — not just when prices look “high.”

2. Tight Supplies Do Not Guarantee Profits

Cattle numbers and slaughter are down, but packer leverage has improved. He predicts cattle slaughter in Q2 2026 to run 4% to 6% below year-earlier levels.

The reduction in fed cattle slaughter capacity materialized with Tyson closing the Lexington, Neb., beef plant and taking its Amarillo, Texas, facility down to a single shift in January.

“As we expected, the shrinking number of shackles in plants didn’t immediately solve packers’ heavy losses,” Weaber says. “Fed cattle packer margins worsened from the second week of January through the third week of February as five-area fed steer prices rallied from $232/cwt. to $247/cwt. and Choice boxed beef cutout values were nearly flat. During the same period, fed steer and heifer slaughter dropped to a historically small average of 433,000 head per week, down 10% from a year earlier.”

(Terrain)

The packers’ slowing of slaughter has resulted in more surplus cattle, most notably in the northern feeding areas. While the increase isn’t particularly burdensome, it is enough to show up in heavier carcass weights (contrary to the seasonal trend) and a higher percentage of Choice and Prime grading carcasses.

Bargaining position has shifted to the packers’ favor.

He suggests producers need to sharpen cost control — feed, interest, yardage — and be selective on placements. He stresses don’t chase high-priced feeders without a clear risk‑management plan.

For cow‑calf producers and backgrounders, he says strong calf and feeder prices are supported, but avoid overexpansion or overpaying for replacements just because “numbers are tight.”

3. Watch the Consumer: Fuel Costs and Confidence Matter

Weaber flags Iran War’s effect on fuel costs and weaker consumer confidence in affordability as potential drags on demand, even while demand is still strong.

(Terrain)

“Consumer confidence is already getting a hit because of ongoing affordability concerns and declines in investment and retirement accounts,” Weaber says. “This combination has the potential to limit consumer spending on beef items at grocery stores and restaurants.”

He encourages producers to track domestic demand signals — retail features, food service traffic and wholesale beef moves — because a softening consumer could pressure cattle prices faster than supplies alone would suggest.

His suggestion to producers is: Be ready to pull the trigger on sales earlier if you see a combination of weaker beef movement and falling futures.

4. Use the Price Outlook to Time Marketing

Weaber’s forecast calls for:

Fed cattle around $250 to $255/cwt. in Q2, close to $260/cwt. in Q3.
Feeder cattle sideways, then rallying into Q3.
450‑lb. calves range‑bound but at very high levels into fall.

His message to producers is to align weaning, backgrounding and selling windows with predicted higher‑price periods when possible. He also suggests considering staggering sales — rather than one big shot — to spread risk across the Q2–Q3 volatility band.

In summary, Weaber says we’re in a record‑high, record‑tight cattle market, but that doesn’t mean an easy ride ahead. Shifting packer leverage, softer consumer confidence and outside shocks like higher fuel costs mean volatility in cattle prices is likely just getting started.

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Utilization Increases to 78%

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:07:50 GMT

Union workers at the JBS Greeley, Colo., plant went on strike last Monday, slaughter for the week was the lowest on record or close to it, and Sterling’s calculation of packer margins for the week was $107/head. Are all three related? Perhaps. One thing is certain – the strike led to reduced slaughter capacity, which may not be permanent but at any rate, utilization was bumped up to 78%, which is good.

Feedlots continued to face red ink last week. We can debate whether that is the result of the 5-Area Direct Choice steer prices averaging $235.25/cwt. for the week or break-evens hovering in the low $240 range.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending March 21.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Margins Improve While Feedlot Margins Weaken

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:39:47 GMT

There are plenty of events to impact the beef market — strike at JBS plant, Iran, oil prices, tariffs — but amid all of the potential impact of these events, wholesale prices have increased, indicating beef demand remains strong.

Union employees at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colo., went on strike Monday. There have been plenty of opinions about the impact of the strike on the market; I won’t get into that conversation other than to say that it will impact fed cattle plant capacity. My simplified math — the plant’s capacity is 5,400 head a day and that accounts for roughly 5½% of total weekly capacity at fed cattle plants. Taking that out of a 525,000 weekly kill would bump utilization from 76% to 83%. Again, that analysis is based on a couple of assumptions that may or may not hold, and I am presenting this as a possible impact on capacity. JBS has already stated they can move that production to other plants.

With weaker slaughter cattle prices over the past two weeks and a stronger cutout, there has been a shift in margins — significant improvement in packer margins and weaker feedlot margins. Last week’s beef packer margin was the best margin the same week in December. However, it is too early to draw conclusions. High break-evens going forward create a tedious situation for feedlots, but against those high break-evens is demand as the industry has never known.

I believe the Iran situation is likely to be concluded in the not-too-distant future, and oil prices will fall. Regarding tariffs, it seems to be a moving target.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending March 14.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Margins Remain in Red at -$182.68/head

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 13:50:38 GMT

Though still well into the red ink at -$182.68/head, beef packer margins were improved last week with the Comprehensive Cutout Value gaining $7.31/cwt. This margin was against a cattle cost of $242.57/cwt. for the 5-Area Steer Price the prior week when those cattle were bought by the packer.

Last week’s Choice steer price $240.02/cwt. led to a reduced feedlot margins with the Sterling estimate at $140.16/head and down from $196.53/head the prior week.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending March 7.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Voice-to-Record App Reinvents Cattle Management

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 12:51:50 GMT

The challenge of maintaining herd records is a familiar struggle for many cow-calf producers who grapple with balancing detailed documentation and practical, cost-efficient management. However, there are multiple solutions available to help transition from traditional paper to platforms that make data input and analysis more productive. During Smart Farming week, we will learn more about five record-keeping options available on the market today.

Arkansas cattleman Gabe Wight has tried notebooks, Rite in the Rain pads, commercial software and even his own simple app to keep cattle records. The frustration of taking gloves off, pulling out the phone, logging in and typing data in meant he wouldn’t keep up with records.

Wight explains his No. 1 pain point is keeping up with his cattle records, and traditional systems never fit how he actually works. He wants to be on a horse or in a tractor, just talking, not typing.

With a poultry science degree from the University of Arkansas, Wight’s career started in marketing and brand management, while cattle remained a passionate side business. His professional career spans media, advertising and general management, and he founded a software company in 2019 that he then sold in 2023.

He says the combination of necessity, love for ranching and a drive to fix frustrating processes in agriculture fueled his entry into ag-tech solutions for cattle. His aggravation led to Herd Advisor — a voice‑first, AI-powered record-keeping system built by a working cattleman to solve the problem he hates most: paperwork.

Wight says he built the program for real ranch life:

No stopping to log in and type, just talk to your phone.
Works from a saddle, tractor or pickup.
Focused on what matters: something useful that reduces aggravation.
Can be used by the whole family or hired help

Hands-Free Record-Keeping

Instead of forms and keyboards, Herd Advisor lets producers “just talk” while they work cows, drive through pastures or feed. It allows ranchers to log herd data such as treatments, calving records, weights, movements and more, hands-free via voice commands.

He says this minimizes manual input and the risk of lost data, making adoption practical for producers who’d rather focus on livestock than data entry. Despite being a self-described technology rejecter, Wight leverages AI as a development partner and backend engineer.

“For me, voice-first cattle records have been a game changer,” Wight explains. “Just to be able to drive through the pasture and just talk.”

Wight first beta tested the program with a group of producers before rolling it out for public download during CattleCon 2026. He says the beta users have been instrumental in refining workflow, especially given the unique naming and tagging conventions in herds.

One of the beta testers was Susan Gurley. Gurley and her husband, Rick, operate Diamond G Farms near Huntsville, Ark. Diamond G is a commercial cow-calf operation. The couple also manage a neighbor’s operation and Rick’s father’s cattle. In total, they manage about 450 cows across 2,000 acres.

“You know the struggle is real when you’ve got notebooks this size and cardboard that size, and 47 different vehicles and people on the farm, and you can’t find the records you need,” Gurley says. “This is going to be something that we can truly utilize and benefit from.”

She says Herd Advisor’s simplicity and flexibility are what excite her most. She loves that initial data entry is not burdensome. Bulk editing and voice entry are also key features for her. She says reminders, pasture records and multi-farm management are also big wins.

“The beautiful thing about voice entry, for example, is on a new calf,” Gurley says. “If I don’t have a tag in the calf. It automatically pops up next to that cow that she’s had a calf, and it calls it calf, and it puts her number and then it puts the date.”

The Gurleys have multiple employees, so they can put reminders in Herd Advisor for their crew with jobs that need to be done — from cow and calf management to pasture management tasks.

“I love the bulk edit,” she summarizes. “If you go work calves, with one click, ‘I used this medicine, this medicine, this medicine,’ and you’re done. And that’s exciting to me.”

(Herd Advisor)

How Does it Work?

Herd Advisor is currently available as a website and iOS app, with an Android app in final stages pending Google Play approval.

The system is flexible, with three main ways to capture records:

1. Siri voice command
A user can say something like: “Hey Siri, cattle record for Herd Advisor … Cow No. 2 has a limp. I gave her a shot of LA‑300, 12 ccs, and remind me in five days to give her a booster.”

2. In‑app microphone button
A floating mic button in the mobile app lets users dictate records directly.

3. Emailing voice transcripts
Producers can create a phone contact like “Voice Records” and email dictated notes to a special Herd Advisor address. You don’t have to have the app on your phone. You can input records via email.

Offline use is also supported. If a producer does not have service, Siri or the app holds the text until the phone is back online, then pushes everything through to be processed.

(Herd Advisor)

How AI Processes and Organizes Data

When you voice in a record, the record goes through a series of AI agents.

1. Contextual understanding
Siri often mishears “cow” as “count,” or misinterprets drug names, so the first AI agent asks: Is this about cattle and what does it mean in that context?

2. Parsing complex spoken notes into structured records
One long narration might include several cows, a calf and a treatment. The system:

Splits those into individual animal records
Handles tricky realities like duplicate tag numbers or long, multi‑generation number sequences

User Workflow and Safety Nets

Wight says critical to the user experience are built in information redundancy and safety nets, with daily database backups and email confirmations.

Each new entry lands in a “Records for Review” page on the web/app. Producers see exactly what the system heard and how it interpreted it. They can:

Confirm or correct which specific animal a record belongs to (for example, if there are multiple “Cow 600s”).
Edit details before finalizing.

The system can also set reminders for booster shots or rechecks for animals or pastures.

Multiple safeguards are in place against data loss:

Optional email copies of each record so the raw text is never lost.
A daily full database snapshot kept for 30 days.

More than Records: The Cattle Market Guide

Along with the herd management program, Gabe Wight has also developed the Cattle Market Guide and a Cattle Market Guys podcast .
Wight says he always questioned if he sold cattle at the right time.

“I pulled out of the auction market parking lot I was thinking the same thing I every time, which is: ‘Should I have sold this week? And should I have sold them here?’” Wight explains.

That led him to build the market predictor. By harnessing AI, Wight first developed the Cattle Market Guide to report profitability differences in when and where to sell. This catalyzed the broader vision for a practical decision-support tool and records management solution tailored for cattle producers.

To learn more about Herd Advisor, the Cattle Market Guide and to listen to the Cattle Market Guys podcast visit HerdAdvisor.com .

Beef Profit Tracker: Demand and Declining Numbers are Driving Beef Complex

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 20:06:40 GMT

Demand against declining cattle numbers and beef production has and will continue to be the driver in the beef complex. The Composite Beef Cutout gained nearly $6/cwt. last week to average $373.86/cwt. The stronger cutout was a help to packer margins with the Sterling estimate for last week at -$314.31/head compared to - $358.40/head the previous week.

Sterling’s estimated feedlot margins were down about $100/head from the prior week to average $196.53/head.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Feb. 28.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

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Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Losses Deepen

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 13:04:04 GMT

Packer losses last week deepened as slaughter cattle priced two weeks prior for last week’s kill gained significantly against the Comprehensive Cutout with Sterling’s estimate for last week’s margin at -$359.51/head.

Feedlot margins last week were also off from the prior week averaging $298/head. The 5-Area Direct Steer Price averaged $246.62/cwt and about $1.50 higher than the previous week.

Plant capacity utilization continues to be a critical issue and will become an increasingly critical issue with both feedlots and packers in the southern Plains with the border closure. Lubbock Feeders announced they are closing this week.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Feb. 21.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Record Profits, Reluctant Expansion: Why Ranchers Are Still Hesitant to Rebuild

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 15:24:06 GMT

From drought memories to high interest rates, beef producers today are hesitant to rebuild even with record cow-calf profits. Structural risks are outweighing the immediate price signal.

Patrick Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, frames today’s beef market as a familiar cattle cycle operating under new structural conditions. Linnell was the featured guest in “ The Future of Beef Show ” podcast episode 17.

He shares the idea that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme, summarizing cycles still exist, numbers will eventually grow and prices will come down from today’s highs, but the underlying drivers and constraints are different from past decades.

Despite record cow‑calf profits, herd expansion is being slowed by structural headwinds and risk aversion. The industry is planting the seeds of expansion, but the rebuild will be slow and cautious.

Debating the decision of selling or keeping high-priced replacements, Linnell summarizes: “Whether somebody’s looking at retaining that heifer calf or selling her, honestly, it’s hard to argue with either decision.”

Regarding herd size, he predicts 30 million beef cows as likely the upper end of what’s realistically achievable, and only on a long timeline — possibly around 2030 to 2032. He says land coming out of beef production and other constraints cap the upside. Yet the industry has offset some of this land and herd reduction by producing more beef per animal, largely through rising carcass weights.

Bottom line: Linnell points to aging operators and succession uncertainty, labor shortages and high labor costs, high capital and interest rates, alternative land uses and urban sprawl, and memories of drought that push many to sell versus build. Layered on top is greater market volatility as well as policy and social media shocks, which make many producers unwilling to commit to expansion right now.

Here are four takeaways from the podcast:

1. High Prices Are Demand-Driven, Not Just About Short Cattle Numbers

Today’s strong prices reflect exceptional beef demand as much as, or more than, tight supplies.

Linnell notes U.S. beef production is still historically large, roughly around a 25‑year average, and per capita beef consumption has increased, reaching its highest level since about 2010 at just more than 59 lb. per person. Consumers are not eating less beef; instead, they’re paying more because they want the product.

Looking ahead, Linnell expects demand to flatten rather than keep climbing steeply from here. With retail beef prices around $9.50 per pound, he thinks many consumers are at a point where they will continue to pay current levels but are resistant to going significantly higher. Over the long term, he still sees an upward trend in beef demand, but near term, he anticipates a plateau. A severe recession would be the clear downside risk to this picture.

2. Structural Shift: More Beef from Fewer Cows Through Genetics and Carcass Weights

With land and cow numbers constrained, growth is coming from heavier, more efficient carcasses — but that also creates new challenges .

“We’ve been able to just produce more with less, too,” Linnell says. “And that really comes back to how big carcass weights have become.”

Linnell says he doubts carcass weights will decrease significantly. While cheap corn supports feeding cattle to heavier weights, he concedes corn won’t stay this inexpensive forever.

He summarizes today’s heavy carcasses are only possible because of decades of genetic progress. Through continual investment in better bulls, cow‑calf producers have dramatically increased the animals’ genetic potential for growth and carcass performance.

In his view, cattle feeders are simply realizing genetic potential, and any policy or management shifts going forward, will have to balance cow size, forage efficiency and carcass performance.

3. Trade and Trim: Why Imports Are Critical in a High-Demand, Heavy-Carcass World

Heavy carcasses in the U.S. generate fat trim, which must be blended with lean beef from imports to make products like 90/10 ground beef. With ground beef demand also very strong, Linnell sees imports as necessary to satisfy consumer preferences.

At the same time, he expects global beef demand to grow over the next decades, meaning more competition for that lean product worldwide.

4. Outlook: Strong-but-Softer Calf Market, Plus Faster, More Volatile Markets in General

Linnell predicts continued strength in calf prices — likely below last year’s highs, but still near record levels.

“[There is a] very strong likelihood that we are looking at calf prices that are probably below year-ago levels this coming year,” he says, “But it’s still the second-strongest calf market on record.”

He cautions the reopening the U.S. border to Mexican cattle could pull prices down a notch.

On technology, Linnell sees artificial intelligence (AI) as a useful support tool — a great editor and helper — but not something that can yet write a credible forward‑looking market report.

He explains AI is inherently backward‑looking and struggles with regime changes or new normals. For CattleFax, he says the value remains in human synthesis of data, market structure and producer feedback.

Linnell also connects AI and algorithmic trading to the increasing speed and volatility of financial and commodity markets. Markets may end up in the same place eventually, but price moves now happen faster and more violently, complicating hedging and risk management.

Overall, Linnell’s view is the outlook for cow‑calf producers remains historically strong, even with the downside risks from policy, trade and macroeconomic shifts.

Beef Profit Tracker: Feedlot Margins Improve to $333.53/head

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 12:24:40 GMT

With a $5/cwt. gain in the weekly average 5- Area Direct Steer price, feedlot margins were notably improved with Sterling estimated average for the week at $333.53/head compared to $306.68 the prior week.

Steer prices averaged $245.18/cwt. against a $221.36 breakeven for those cattle. The first cost of 750-800 lb. feeders into the feedlot averaged $375.51/cwt. compared to $268.55/cwt. for the same week a year ago resulting in a breakeven of $191.49/cwt.

Average packer margins fell further into the red last week with Sterling’s estimate at -$298.46/head compared to -$193/head the prior week. The Comprehensive Beef Cutout averaged $366.87/cwt. last week.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Feb. 14.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer and Feedlot Margins Decline

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 10:14:26 GMT

Both packer and feedlot margins declined last week to -$273/head for packers as Choice steer prices gained against little gain with the Comprehensive Cutout Value ($360.50/cwt.) and higher break-evens in the feedlot.

Sterling’s estimate for feedlot margins last week were $307/head against $342/head the previous week.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Feb. 7.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Average Slaughter Cattle Prices Up $30/cwt. Compared to 2025

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 03:54:21 GMT

Slaughter cattle prices were higher last week with the 5-Area Direct Choice steers averaging $239.44/cwt. compared to $234.65/cwt. the prior week and significantly higher than the prior year average for the same week, which was $209.97/cwt.

Feeding margins last week average $342.33/head against a $215/cwt. breakeven and a breakeven for cattle placed on feed last week of $236/cwt. Sterling average estimated packer margin last was -$207/head compared to -$193/head a week earlier. Capacity utilization continues to hover in the mid-70% range.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Jan. 31.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Margins Improve to -$191.89/head, Feeder Margins Improve to $295.48/head

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 15:18:22 GMT

A 1% week-over-week gain to the Composite Cutout against a .3% gain in the 5- Area Choice Steer Price (two weeks prior) gave a boost to beef packer margins last week. In addition, the drop credit gained .4% as well. Sterling’s calculated weekly average beef packer margin was - $191.89/head. The prior week, packers lost an average -$216.97/head.

Feedlots also saw improved margins last week with Sterling’s calculation at $295.48/head against $213.95 the prior week.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Jan. 24.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)

Cattle on Feed Suggests Continuing Tight Supplies and Limited Heifer Retention

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 19:05:25 GMT

USDA released the January Cattle on Feed report on Friday, Jan. 23. These monthly reports estimate on-feed inventories for feedlots with capacity over 1,000 head, which represents more than 80% of total on-feed inventory in the U.S. As of Jan. 1, total on-feed inventory was estimated at 11.45 million head, which was down more than 3% from Jan. 1, 2025.

(USDA-NASS, Livestock Marketing Information Center)

Low domestic cattle inventory, combined with the ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, continue to keep cattle supplies tight. On-feed inventory has been running below year-ago levels since fall of 2024, and this was the largest year-over-year decline since that time.

Placements were the headliner of the report, and this has largely been the case for the last year. The number of cattle placed on feed during December of 2025 was down by more than 5% compared to December of 2024. This was largely anticipated, and the placement number came in at the upper end of a very wide range of pre-report estimates, but the number is still significant.

(USDA-NASS, Compiled by Livestock Marketing Information Center)

We were not importing live cattle from Mexico in December of 2024, so the 5% decrease is from a low baseline the previous year. December marketings were up 1.7% year-over-year, which was very close to pre-report estimates.

Nebraska continues to be the state with the largest number of cattle on feed, while Texas would be second. This shift has occurred due to the continued ban on cattle imports from Mexico.

(USDA-NASS, Compiled by Livestock Marketing Information Center)

Friday’s report also included an estimate of the steer/heifer breakdown. The number of heifers on feed provides an indication of heifer retention, so analysts have been watching this number closely. In Friday’s report, both steers and heifers on feed were down roughly 3% from January 2025. As a percentage of total on-feed inventory, heifers accounted for 38.7%. This is about 0.6% higher than Oct. 1 and virtually unchanged from last January. This suggests relatively low levels of heifer retention at present.

More will be known about heifer retention and many other trends when USDA releases the January cattle inventory report on January 30. During 2025, beef cow slaughter was down by more than 500,000 head. For that reason alone, a small increase in beef cow numbers would seem likely. And while heifer retention does not appear to be occurring at a large scale, a small increase in the number of heifers held for beef cow replacement would not be surprising. Still, the pace of beef cow herd expansion in the coming years is likely to be slower than past cattle cycles.

Your Next Read: Cattle Rally on Higher Cash, Trumping COF: Tightest Numbers Ahead

Tightest Cattle Supply Predicted in The Next 60 to 90 Days

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 17:56:31 GMT

While fundamentals continue to drive the cattle market, increasing prevalence of external factors can play havoc day-to-day.

Based on placements the past six months, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek believes the tightest supply of this entire cattle cycle will occur in the next 60 to 90 days. It wouldn’t be the first-time the market makes a high in February or March.

“Now beyond that, I don’t see there’s a tremendous chance to have an oversupply of cattle going into the summer,” he adds. “However, you’ve got things like the Mexican border that are coming into play. So, I’m trying to react to what I see, but the fundamentals aren’t going to change.”

Here are seven other takeaways from Kooima’s recent conversation with Chip Flory on AgriTalk:

1. Fundamentals Still Drive The Cattle Market.

“I wish we could just talk about cattle fundamentals,” he says. “I’m still an old-school fundamentalist who believes a lot in trying to figure out where we’re at with supply and how we’re getting along with the boxes and beef demand.”

Rumors and misguided comments, such as the New World screwworm (NWS) scare a week ago and geopolitical factors this past Tuesday, can cause the markets to react.

“Now, is it only supply? Of course not,” Kooima says, regarding what drives the markets. “But if I had to start there, barring more of this outside, new stuff we’ve been inundated with, I think the market still generally driving the deal. We don’t have enough cattle, and that’s why they’re cutting kill. That’s why they’re closing plants. There’s not enough to go around.”

2. Heifer Retention Exists But Isn’t a Major Market Factor.

Kooima says heifer retention has started but is insufficient to significantly change the supply trajectory.

“It’s not like 2015 when we flipped a switch and the whole world decided to save them at one time, but it’s there,” he says.

He’s predicting a 1% to 2% increase, saying the retention is regional — referring to the Dakotas, Montana and Colorado.

“What’s driving it is economics,” Kooima says. Some ranchers can’t afford to not sell their heifer calves, while other factors include the age of the rancher, no desire to deal with first-calf heifers and drought.

When asked if there is enough heifer retention to move the needle to bring some relief on the supply side, Kooima responds: “The short answer would be no. We’re never going to have a cow herd like we had 10 years ago. We’re going to have to figure out how to do with less.”

He says the strategy to increase supply is feeding to heavier weights and the growth in beef-on-dairy.

“The gorilla in the room, to me, is beef-on-dairy,” he says. “From a couple of standpoints, just from a raw supply standpoint, the dairy cow herd’s the biggest since 1993. It’s grown and grown, and why wouldn’t you if you can get $1,200 to $1,500 for a day-old calf?”

3. Mexico Has Built Feeding and Processing Infrastructure in Response to Border Closure.

Kooima says with the U.S.-Mexico border closed due to NWS, Mexico has figured out how to finish and process cattle.

“I think there’s a lot of people there who don’t want anything to happen,” he says, regarding reopening the border. “They’re benefiting from this great big bull market and now they’re selling the beef to us. So, it may never exactly be the way it was again. They waited too long on this matter, in my opinion. It’s not a market factor.”

4. Beef-on-Dairy and Vertical Integration Are Rising Concerns.

Kooima shares his concern about the long-term implications of vertical integration and the consequences of the growing beef-on-dairy supply.

“For the first time, you got an integrator that has the ability to control that thing from its birthday and schedule it out 341 days later to slaughter,” he explains. “A dream that the packers chase. I watched them wreck the hog market. I see what happened in poultry. This scares me to death. The combination of all of that is we’re losing price discovery. They’re going to try to slow it down as much as they can until they can control the supply.”

5. Packers Are Adapting to the Market.

Kooima says the closing of Tyson’s Lexington plant and shift reduction at its Amarillo plant are examples of the broad industry trend to reduce harvest rates and shutter facilities when supplies tighten. He explains the closing will result in even less negotiated trade. The Lexington plant primarily did formula (non-negotiated) pricing, and he predicts those formula customers will now go to Tyson’s Dakota City plant.

“Dakota City, a plant that’s closest to me, 64 miles away, is likely going to become a formula plant. It’s going to further deteriorate price discovery up in this neck of the woods,” he stresses.

He adds packers are also using tight supplies as an opportunity to perform necessary cooler clean-out cycles and reduce the number of harvest days per week.

“They’re systematically reducing kill to try to gain some leverage back,” Kooima says.

When it comes to regional packers, he hopes they can survive: “I think they’re critical to price discovery.”

6. Demand for Beef Remains Strong.

Kooima is bullish about beef demand, especially amid supply tightness.

“When people say demand is pretty good, I go ‘No, it is phenomenal,’” he says. “The demand for grind is crazy. We have to make sure we can continue to fuel that rocket.”

7. Risk Management is Essential Amid Market Uncertainty.

On protecting against risk, Kooima advises: “My mantra is and has been for a year and a half to buy some puts. You’re going to have to buy puts to keep you in business. Let’s not let 2015 happen to us again.”

He goes on to add: “Do I think that there’s a high-risk point here in the short term? No, obviously, I just said I think we’ve got the tightest numbers ever, but there’s always something that can go wrong, so be careful.”

Listen to Kooima’s and Flory’s AgriTalk conversation here:

Your Next Read — Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What’s Next in 2026?

Beef Profit Tracker: Packer Capacity Utilization Remains Critical

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 16:50:50 GMT

Beef packers continue to deal with competition for tight cattle numbers. Though there will be some relief following Tyson’s Lexington plant closure, capacity utilization remains a critical issue. Sterling analysis indicates plant utilization averaged 78% in fed cattle plants last week and 63% in cow plants.

Packer margins according to Sterling calculations averaged -$216/head last week while feedlot margins averaged $214/head for the week. 5-Area Direct Choice steer prices averaged $232.40/cwt. for the week against an average Comprehensive Cutout Value of $360.93/cwt., which was up from $353.70/cwt. the prior week.

View the full Sterling Beef Profit Tracker for the week ending Jan. 17.

The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore.

(Note: The Sterling Beef Profit Tracker calculates an average beef cutout value for the week in its estimates for feedyard and packer margins. Other prices in the weekly Profit Tracker also are calculated weekly averages. Feedyard margins are calculated on a cash basis only with no adjustment for risk management practices. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are intended only as a benchmark for the average cash costs of feeding cattle and hogs. Sterling Marketing is a private, independent beef and pork consulting firm not associated with any packing company or livestock feeding enterprise.)